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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
534 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221231
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
831 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE AS OF 830 AM EDT...ISOLD TSTMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND FAR SE VA AS OF 12Z. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THESE
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE. HAVE MADE THAT ADJUSTED TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS (I-95 CORRIDOR) THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST TO THE EASTERN SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221214
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
814 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE
SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS
MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/
SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF
09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
503 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE SCA RAMPING UP TO
A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS EVENG INTO/THRU THU
AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS
AFTN INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD
TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1008 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT
AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 07Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO
12Z SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD END MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP THIS AFTN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC...WHILE
FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON THE ERN SHORE THROUGH THE
AFTN...TAPERED TO 20% OR LOWER FROM SW SIDE OF METRO RICHMOND ON
SW. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP HOWEVER...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS
OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL
STAY BKN/OVC. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENLY NO
BETTER THAN THE LOWER 60S OVER MOST AREAS..RANGING FROM LWR TO MID
60S ACRS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM CAROLINE COUNTY ON WEST. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE
ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S SW.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
     BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
     BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220254
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1054 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...UPDATED SEVERAL TAFS FOR RECENT TRENDS AND TO
INCLUDE IFR AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE
LOWERING WITH MVFR DEVELOPING MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND NAM
MOS IS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS
TIME TO AT LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST
LOCATIONS GOING TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220254
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1054 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...UPDATED SEVERAL TAFS FOR RECENT TRENDS AND TO
INCLUDE IFR AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE
LOWERING WITH MVFR DEVELOPING MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED AND NAM
MOS IS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS
TIME TO AT LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST
LOCATIONS GOING TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220150
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
950 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS TIME TO AT
LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST LOCATIONS GOING
TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE
EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
934 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE
PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO
SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING
VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW
ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40%
POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US
TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE
PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20
ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM
GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME
FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION
SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE
SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70%
POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN
SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE.
OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS
THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE CWA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY N/NW WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS (EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CEILINGS TO LOWER DURING THIS TIME TO AT
LEAST MVFR. DID NOT GO AS LOW AS NAM WHICH HAS MOST LOCATIONS GOING
TO IFR. WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE
EASTERN SHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
429 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE
PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO
SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING
VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW
ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40%
POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US
TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE
PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20
ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM
GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME
FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION
SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE
SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70%
POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN
SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE.
OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS
THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HELP A COOLER AIRMASS DIVE
INTO THE AREA. DRIZZLE ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH NOON ON WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH WED
AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THU
AND FRI WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...WITH
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE
SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SE
PA/SOUTHERN NJ WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THIS LOW INTO
SW VA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW...REACHING
VA/NC OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE/UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH LATE TODAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER NW
ZONES BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY 25-40%
POPS N-NW OF KRIC THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF OVER US
TONIGHT...THE BEST FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS OR
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS (50-70%) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK/MIDDLE
PENINSULA ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT...DECREASING TO ~20
ACROSS SW ZONES (WHERE DRY CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO (GIVEN STEEP H5 TO H7
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C)...BUT WILL PRECLUDE FROM FORECAST ATTM
GIVEN FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME
FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION
SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE
SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
CHC POPS (25-50%) LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA...WITH LIKELY 60-70%
POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT/WED WILL AVG 0.25-0.75" ON THE ERN
SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR COOLER END
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE.
OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS
THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HELP A COOLER AIRMASS DIVE
INTO THE AREA. DRIZZLE ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH NOON ON WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH WED
AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WED EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
NUDGES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THU
AND FRI WITH STRONGER NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE
NW STARTING WED AFTN DUE TO INTENSIFYING LO PRES OFF THE CST...HAVE
HOISTED SCA`S FOR ALL WTRS STARTING WED AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM
THRU AT LEAST THU AFTN FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT OVR THE CHES BAY ZNS AND CSTL ZNS FM EARLY WED EVENG THRU THU.
WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHR FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ/TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
504 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AND PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER ERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...WILL
SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE
BEST UPWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE (H5 TO H7 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C) AND IF IT WERE
SPRING WOULD ADD TSTMS TO THE FORECAST. LOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO
BE FAIRLY STABLE HOWEVER SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TSTMS OUT OF FORECAST
BUT CERTAINLY COULD HAVE SOME ELEVATED TSTMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS...TAPERED TO LOWER CHANCES FARTHER S/W WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
IS GENLY NOT PRESENT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN 09-15Z...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC
REFLECTION SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP
MOSITURE GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN
PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WED...WITH EMPHASIS OF 60-70% POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END
UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.25-0.50" ON
THE ERN SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER
60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY
AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE SUN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S FARTHER NE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB
SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...AROUND 30 MPH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE
NW STARTING WED AFTN DUE TO INTENSIFYING LO PRES OFF THE CST...HAVE
HOISTED SCA`S FOR ALL WTRS STARTING WED AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM
THRU AT LEAST THU AFTN FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT OVR THE CHES BAY ZNS AND CSTL ZNS FM EARLY WED EVENG THRU THU.
WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHR FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
504 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AND PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER ERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...WILL
SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE
BEST UPWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE (H5 TO H7 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C) AND IF IT WERE
SPRING WOULD ADD TSTMS TO THE FORECAST. LOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO
BE FAIRLY STABLE HOWEVER SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TSTMS OUT OF FORECAST
BUT CERTAINLY COULD HAVE SOME ELEVATED TSTMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS...TAPERED TO LOWER CHANCES FARTHER S/W WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
IS GENLY NOT PRESENT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
AFTER A BRIEF INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE BETWEEN 09-15Z...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH/SFC
REFLECTION SWING FARTHER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP
MOSITURE GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN
PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
WED...WITH EMPHASIS OF 60-70% POPS ON THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END
UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.25-0.50" ON
THE ERN SHORE...GENLY ONLY AROUND .10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE. FAVOR
COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MID 60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER
60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY
AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST.
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE SUN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S FARTHER NE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB
SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...AROUND 30 MPH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS FM THE
NW STARTING WED AFTN DUE TO INTENSIFYING LO PRES OFF THE CST...HAVE
HOISTED SCA`S FOR ALL WTRS STARTING WED AFTN AND WILL MAINTAIN THEM
THRU AT LEAST THU AFTN FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT OVR THE CHES BAY ZNS AND CSTL ZNS FM EARLY WED EVENG THRU THU.
WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHR FM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT
5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND
SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...LOCATING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER ERN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...WILL
SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE
BEST UPWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS...TAPERED TO LOWER CHANCES FARTHER S/W WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE IS GENLY NOT PRESENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP
MOSITURE GRADIENT PROGGED ALONG THE COAST...THE ERN SHORE IN
PARTICULAR. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH EMPHASIS OF 60-70% POPS ON
THE EASTERN SHORE. COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES.
FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...MID 60S SW TO AROUND
60/LOWER 60S NE.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU ALTHOUGH WITH A BIT MORE SUN
SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S FARTHER NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...LOCATING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...LOCATING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW DOWN THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. WEAK/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS PUSHING EAST ACRS THE
CWA AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION (GENLY TOO DRY IN LOW LEVELS FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE THUS FAR). MOISTURE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E THROUGH 12Z AS DRY SLOT PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE SW BUT WILL
MAINTAIN 20% POPS E OF I-95 THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER 12Z...WILL TEND TO SALVAGE A PRETTY NICE DAY ACRS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF MUCH MILDER THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING...SUN AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE LOWER 70S BY EARLY AFTN. WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV SATELLITE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES PROGGED TO DIVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LOW...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN. HIGH RES
MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
ACRS NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER 18Z...GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS SE
TO THE COAST PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING. DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS (DEW
PTS IN 40S)...EXPECT THAT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTN WILL LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN REALITY AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED IN CHANCE
RANGE...AROUND 40% ACRS THE NORTH AFTER 20Z...TAPERED TO 20% OR
LOWER ACRS THE SOUTH. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...< .10". HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS THE FAR SE (WHERE
CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO PUSH IN THIS AFTN)...TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
F OVER THE NW DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS AN POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
ALSO...DUE TO THE LOW DEW PTS...IF MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...TEMPS LATE THIS AFTN WOULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
60S OR COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210557
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210557
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG OVR THE TAF
SITES...WITH PERIODS OF MID LVL CLOUDINESS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. LATER TNGT THRU THU...LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS...ESPLY OVR NRN AND ERN PORTIONS LATE TNGT
INTO WED NGT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THU AT SBY. THE LO
PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NE AND HI PRES BLDS IN
FM THE NNW THU NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210230
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210230
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
10 PM UPDATE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED WELL OFFSHORE (OFF
THE MD COAST) ACCORDING TO BUOY 09. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT 5 FT (4.9
FT LAST TWO HOURS). WINDS AND SEAS ARE MUCH LESS TOWARD THE COAST.
INCLUDED A STRIP OF 5 FT SEAS (THROUGH 06Z) IN THE ZONES N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND BUT HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

HI RES MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE WINDS OVER THE BAY. AS AIR
TEMPERATURES COOL...MIXING WILL INCREASE AND WINDS MAY INCREASE
BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND
TO REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND
SPEEDS AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/LSA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING PRES GRAD ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT SUPPORTING A THIN BAND OF ISOLD SHOWERS ON
RADAR OVER THE WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOST OF THE RADAR ARE RESULTING IN VIRGA. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB
0.75")...SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH OF PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE HRRR TIES TO DEVELOP A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EAST OF
I-95 AROUND 06Z...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. THAT SAID
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW COULD KEEP SOME AREAS
FROM REACHING FORECAST LOWS KEEPING CONDITIONS MILDER. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER WEST TO MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX IS FORECAST THROUGH 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MID
LVL CLDNS (CIGS MAINLY 10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MAINLY 10-12
KFT) EARLY TUE MRNG LWRG TO 5-6K FT TUE AFTN. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVELS TOO DRY BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS
MAINLY AT SBY BY TUESDAY AFTN (NOT IN TAF). LIGHT S WINDS BECOME W
NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DEEPENS AND
LINGERS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS) TUE NIGHT
AND WED ENDING WED NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IFR IS INDICATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX THROUGH TAF FCST PD. XPCG PDS OF MID LVL CLDNS (CIGS MNLY
10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MNLY 5-10 KFT) TUE MRNG (LO LVLS
TOO DRY FOR PCPN). SSW WNDS 10-20KT INTO EARLY THIS EVE...THEN
DIMINISHING TNGT. WSW WNDS ON TUE AVGG 10-20 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE AFTN
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...AJZ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THRU THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AROUND 12Z TUE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR AN
ISOLD SHOWER OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES...AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN
OBX...THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT (PW`S AOB 0.75")...SO WOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU TONIGHT WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY TUES THANKS TO A ~100 KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD
FROM CANADA. AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NE STATES LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT INTO WED...LOCATING OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE WED. WITH THE UPR LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT...WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NORTH/NE WHERE BEST UPWARD MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE CHANCE (POPS 25-40%) ALONG AND NE OF A LINE FROM
LKU-OFP-MFV ON TUE...THEN BEST CHANCE (30-50%) MAINLY ALONG THE
VA COAST AND ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WILL
CARRY NO HIGHER THEN 20% POPS. HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO
MID 70S SE. LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH DURING THIE TIME.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS AS THE
TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHC POPS
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WED...WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE (30-50% POPS).
COULD END UP BEING DRY OVER FAR SW ZONES. COOLER WED WITH HIGHS
ONLY 60-65.

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY...AND POTENTIALLY 70-75 BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WX THROUGH TAF FCST PD. XPCG PDS OF MID LVL CLDNS (CIGS MNLY
10-15KFT) TNGT W/ SCT-BKN CLDNS (MNLY 5-10 KFT) TUE MRNG (LO LVLS
TOO DRY FOR PCPN). SSW WNDS 10-20KT INTO EARLY THIS EVE...THEN
DIMINISHING TNGT. WSW WNDS ON TUE AVGG 10-20 KT.

NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUE AFTN
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
REMAIN S/SW. EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND
GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA
CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...AJZ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
926 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN
FLOW/WAA COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY
LATE TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT
DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75
INCHES...WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND 12C. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
926 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN
FLOW/WAA COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY
LATE TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT
DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75
INCHES...WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO
AROUND 12C. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S NEAR
THE COAST THANKS TO EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CIRRUS HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FALLING TEMPS...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
30S HAVE RESULTED IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER DEG OR TWO THRU SUNRISE...WITH SOME
INLAND LOCALES WAKING UP TO FROST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY LATE
TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT DUE TO A
DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WILL
ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC WINDS OF
10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 12C.
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOCATING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S NEAR
THE COAST THANKS TO EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. CIRRUS HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FALLING TEMPS...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
30S HAVE RESULTED IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER DEG OR TWO THRU SUNRISE...WITH SOME
INLAND LOCALES WAKING UP TO FROST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW/WAA
COMMENCING. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE OH VALLEY LATE
TODAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND LEADWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION...BUT DUE TO A
DRY AIR MASS PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...WILL
ONLY SEE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATE TODAY. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASE NEARLY 20 M TODAY THANKS TO SLY SFC WINDS OF
10-15 MPH AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. H85 TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 12C.
TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLOW AMPLIFIES DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TUES THANKS TO A 100+ KT JET STREAK DIVING SWD FROM S CNTRL CANADA.
AS A RESULT...UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE STATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE WEDS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DROPS
INTO THE NE STATES TONIGHT WITH A ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NW LOCAL AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT TUES MORNING. THE STACKED
LOW CROSSES THE AREA TUES...LOCATING JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UVM OVER THE REGION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE NEAREST THE SFC LOW/BEST MOISTURE OVER THE N AND NE
LOCAL AREA. AS THE LOW LOCATES OFFSHORE TUES NIGHT...BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE ERN SHORE. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TUES ACROSS THE N-NE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SW. HIGHS TUES
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY ALOFT OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AS THE TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION SWING OFFSHORE. WL THEREFORE KEEP
FORECAST DRY WEST OF I-95 ON WED, WITH LOW CHC POP FARTHER EAST
FOR SOME SCT SHRAS OVER COASTAL AREAS/ERN SHORE. HIGHS WED
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO NUMBERS...GENERALLY IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS (~30%) ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ZONES WED NIGHT...LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) OVER THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON THURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEXT SUNDAY. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED.
HIGHS THU 60-65...THEN FRI-SUN IN THE MID/UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN LINGERS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING ALONG
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND COASTAL SEAS NOW 3-4 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTN/EVENING...EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND SPEEDS
AVERAGING UP TO 15-20 KT ACRS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...GENLY 10-15
KT ELSEWHERE. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL SCA CONDITIONS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STALL
OFFSHORE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY. WITH FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS
WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-6 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB








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