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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED E OF
HUDSON BAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
F. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN LIKELY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
AFTN DEW PTS FAILING TO DROP MUCH...RANGING FROM 70-75 F ACRS MOST
LOCATIONS. NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT HEAT INDICES ARE RUNNING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE MOST PART.

FINALLY HAVING A MAINLY DRY DAY ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR TSTMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE
NC THROUGH 01Z WHERE ML CAPES AVG ~2000 J/KG PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. W/ LOSS OF HEATING BY SUNSET...EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ALL ZONES W/ NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WED/THU WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDING WEST TO BECOME CENTERED ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SE ATLC COAST. FAST MOVING WSW FLOW ALOFT WED INTO THU WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW BY FRI. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
TRACK FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST WED...BRINGING MORE
SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO THE LOCAL AREA WED AFTN. 12Z NAM APPEARS
TOO WET ACRS NC...GIVEN THE PATTERN BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST 30%
POPS FOR ALL ZONES BY LATE AFTN/AFTER 20Z (HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE
NORTH). STILL LOOKS LIKE SHEAR IS TOO WEAK FOR MUCH SVR THREAT BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS INTO THE LWR-MID 90S S TO THE UPPER 80S N (WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ARRIVE EARLIER). MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT
WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE
INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU. LOWS 70-75 F. PROBALY A LITTLE
HOTTER ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST AREAS AS DEEPER WSW
FLOW DEVLOPS. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS THE
REGION...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE DEEP W FLOW MAY DRY
CONDS OUT/LIMIT POPS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FRI AS FRONT DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA...HIGHS MID 80S N TO LWR 90S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SERN U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...ENDING UP OVER WEST TX/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY BEFORE
EXPANDING/BUILDING NORTH OVER THE ROCKY MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING IN THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT. WENT WITH
GENERALLY CLIMO POPS SAT/SUN (20-30%)...THEN INCREASED THEM A LITTLE
BIT NEXT MON/TUE WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.
SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
AFTERNOON CU HAS POPPED IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC. EXPECT LITTLE CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. AS THE SFC
HIGH WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE SW
FLOW CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 - 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON WED...KEEPING THE SW
FLOW IN PLACE. THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT JUST SOME CU TO DEVELOP. SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z WED - SUN...THE FRONT APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON SO
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION WITH RESTRICTIONS OF VIS AND CEILINGS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.MARINE...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WINDS TURN NW AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS FRIDAY...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT/CHES BAY 1-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...JDM/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED E OF
HUDSON BAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
F. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN LIKELY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
AFTN DEW PTS FAILING TO DROP MUCH...RANGING FROM 70-75 F ACRS MOST
LOCATIONS. NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT HEAT INDICES ARE RUNNING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE MOST PART.

FINALLY HAVING A MAINLY DRY DAY ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR TSTMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE
NC THROUGH 01Z WHERE ML CAPES AVG ~2000 J/KG PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. W/ LOSS OF HEATING BY SUNSET...EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ALL ZONES W/ NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WED/THU WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDING WEST TO BECOME CENTERED ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SE ATLC COAST. FAST MOVING WSW FLOW ALOFT WED INTO THU WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW BY FRI. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
TRACK FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST WED...BRINGING MORE
SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO THE LOCAL AREA WED AFTN. 12Z NAM APPEARS
TOO WET ACRS NC...GIVEN THE PATTERN BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST 30%
POPS FOR ALL ZONES BY LATE AFTN/AFTER 20Z (HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE
NORTH). STILL LOOKS LIKE SHEAR IS TOO WEAK FOR MUCH SVR THREAT BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS INTO THE LWR-MID 90S S TO THE UPPER 80S N (WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ARRIVE EARLIER). MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT
WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE
INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU. LOWS 70-75 F. PROBALY A LITTLE
HOTTER ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST AREAS AS DEEPER WSW
FLOW DEVLOPS. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS THE
REGION...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE DEEP W FLOW MAY DRY
CONDS OUT/LIMIT POPS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FRI AS FRONT DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA...HIGHS MID 80S N TO LWR 90S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SERN U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...ENDING UP OVER WEST TX/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY BEFORE
EXPANDING/BUILDING NORTH OVER THE ROCKY MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING IN THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT. WENT WITH
GENERALLY CLIMO POPS SAT/SUN (20-30%)...THEN INCREASED THEM A LITTLE
BIT NEXT MON/TUE WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.
SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
AFTERNOON CU HAS POPPED IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC. EXPECT LITTLE CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. AS THE SFC
HIGH WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE SW
FLOW CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 - 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON WED...KEEPING THE SW
FLOW IN PLACE. THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT JUST SOME CU TO DEVELOP. SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z WED - SUN...THE FRONT APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON SO
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION WITH RESTRICTIONS OF VIS AND CEILINGS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.MARINE...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WINDS TURN NW AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS FRIDAY...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT/CHES BAY 1-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...JDM/MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED E OF
HUDSON BAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
F. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN LIKELY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
AFTN DEW PTS FAILING TO DROP MUCH...RANGING FROM 70-75 F ACRS MOST
LOCATIONS. NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT HEAT INDICES ARE RUNNING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE MOST PART.

FINALLY HAVING A MAINLY DRY DAY ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR TSTMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE
NC THROUGH 01Z WHERE ML CAPES AVG ~2000 J/KG PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. W/ LOSS OF HEATING BY SUNSET...EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ALL ZONES W/ NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WED/THU WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDING WEST TO BECOME CENTERED ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SE ATLC COAST. FAST MOVING WSW FLOW ALOFT WED INTO THU WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW BY FRI. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
TRACK FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST WED...BRINGING MORE
SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO THE LOCAL AREA WED AFTN. 12Z NAM APPEARS
TOO WET ACRS NC...GIVEN THE PATTERN BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST 30%
POPS FOR ALL ZONES BY LATE AFTN/AFTER 20Z (HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE
NORTH). STILL LOOKS LIKE SHEAR IS TOO WEAK FOR MUCH SVR THREAT BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS INTO THE LWR-MID 90S S TO THE UPPER 80S N (WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ARRIVE EARLIER). MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT
WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE
INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU. LOWS 70-75 F. PROBALY A LITTLE
HOTTER ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST AREAS AS DEEPER WSW
FLOW DEVLOPS. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS THE
REGION...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE DEEP W FLOW MAY DRY
CONDS OUT/LIMIT POPS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FRI AS FRONT DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA...HIGHS MID 80S N TO LWR 90S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SERN U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...ENDING UP OVER WEST TX/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY BEFORE
EXPANDING/BUILDING NORTH OVER THE ROCKY MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING IN THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT. WENT WITH
GENERALLY CLIMO POPS SAT/SUN (20-30%)...THEN INCREASED THEM A LITTLE
BIT NEXT MON/TUE WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.
SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
AFTERNOON CU HAS POPPED IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC. EXPECT LITTLE CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. AS THE SFC
HIGH WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE SW
FLOW CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 - 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON WED...KEEPING THE SW
FLOW IN PLACE. THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT JUST SOME CU TO DEVELOP. SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z WED - SUN...THE FRONT APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON SO
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION WITH RESTRICTIONS OF VIS AND CEILINGS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.MARINE...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WINDS TURN NW AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS FRIDAY...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT/CHES BAY 1-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...JDM/MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED E OF
HUDSON BAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
F. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN LIKELY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
AFTN DEW PTS FAILING TO DROP MUCH...RANGING FROM 70-75 F ACRS MOST
LOCATIONS. NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT HEAT INDICES ARE RUNNING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE MOST PART.

FINALLY HAVING A MAINLY DRY DAY ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR TSTMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE
NC THROUGH 01Z WHERE ML CAPES AVG ~2000 J/KG PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS. W/ LOSS OF HEATING BY SUNSET...EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR ALL ZONES W/ NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WED/THU WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDING WEST TO BECOME CENTERED ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SE ATLC COAST. FAST MOVING WSW FLOW ALOFT WED INTO THU WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW BY FRI. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
TRACK FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE NJ COAST WED...BRINGING MORE
SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO THE LOCAL AREA WED AFTN. 12Z NAM APPEARS
TOO WET ACRS NC...GIVEN THE PATTERN BUT WILL HAVE AT LEAST 30%
POPS FOR ALL ZONES BY LATE AFTN/AFTER 20Z (HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE
NORTH). STILL LOOKS LIKE SHEAR IS TOO WEAK FOR MUCH SVR THREAT BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS INTO THE LWR-MID 90S S TO THE UPPER 80S N (WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ARRIVE EARLIER). MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT
WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE
INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU. LOWS 70-75 F. PROBALY A LITTLE
HOTTER ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S MOST AREAS AS DEEPER WSW
FLOW DEVLOPS. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS THE
REGION...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE DEEP W FLOW MAY DRY
CONDS OUT/LIMIT POPS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FRI AS FRONT DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA...HIGHS MID 80S N TO LWR 90S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SERN U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...ENDING UP OVER WEST TX/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY BEFORE
EXPANDING/BUILDING NORTH OVER THE ROCKY MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
COAST NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING IN THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING THESE FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT. WENT WITH
GENERALLY CLIMO POPS SAT/SUN (20-30%)...THEN INCREASED THEM A LITTLE
BIT NEXT MON/TUE WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.
SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
AFTERNOON CU HAS POPPED IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC. EXPECT LITTLE CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. AS THE SFC
HIGH WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE SW
FLOW CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 - 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON WED...KEEPING THE SW
FLOW IN PLACE. THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT JUST SOME CU TO DEVELOP. SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z WED - SUN...THE FRONT APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON SO
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION WITH RESTRICTIONS OF VIS AND CEILINGS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.MARINE...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE A WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WINDS TURN NW AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS FRIDAY...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FT/CHES BAY 1-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...JDM/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN FINALLY
LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR AFTN
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY E OF I-95. NAM/GFS AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW/MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTN...AND ALREADY SEEING A FAIR CU FIELD POPPING
OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
OCCURRED LAST EVENING. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z WHERE THIS CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SKIES AVG MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTN OTHER THAN
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SE VA/NE NC...WITH GENLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING 18-21Z. SLOWLY RISING 850 MB
TEMPS/A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW/AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS
AT THE IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
AFTERNOON CU HAS POPPED IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC. EXPECT LITTLE CONVECTION DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. AS THE SFC
HIGH WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE SW
FLOW CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 - 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW ON WED...KEEPING THE SW
FLOW IN PLACE. THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT JUST SOME CU TO DEVELOP. SO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z WED - SUN...THE FRONT APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON SO
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION WITH RESTRICTIONS OF VIS AND CEILINGS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE CONVECTION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071505
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN FINALLY
LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR AFTN
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY E OF I-95. NAM/GFS AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW/MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTN...AND ALREADY SEEING A FAIR CU FIELD POPPING
OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
OCCURRED LAST EVENING. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z WHERE THIS CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SKIES AVG MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTN OTHER THAN
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SE VA/NE NC...WITH GENLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING 18-21Z. SLOWLY RISING 850 MB
TEMPS/A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW/AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS
AT THE IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 F.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071505
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN FINALLY
LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR AFTN
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY E OF I-95. NAM/GFS AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW/MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTN...AND ALREADY SEEING A FAIR CU FIELD POPPING
OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
OCCURRED LAST EVENING. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z WHERE THIS CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SKIES AVG MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTN OTHER THAN
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SE VA/NE NC...WITH GENLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING 18-21Z. SLOWLY RISING 850 MB
TEMPS/A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW/AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS
AT THE IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 F.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071505
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN FINALLY
LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR AFTN
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY E OF I-95. NAM/GFS AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW/MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTN...AND ALREADY SEEING A FAIR CU FIELD POPPING
OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
OCCURRED LAST EVENING. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z WHERE THIS CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SKIES AVG MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTN OTHER THAN
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SE VA/NE NC...WITH GENLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING 18-21Z. SLOWLY RISING 850 MB
TEMPS/A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW/AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS
AT THE IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 F.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...AS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850 MB TEMPS AND
INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT
WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE
MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD FOR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE
NC...EVEN THO FORCING IS WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...AS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850 MB TEMPS AND
INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT
WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE
MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD FOR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE
NC...EVEN THO FORCING IS WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...AS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850 MB TEMPS AND
INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT
WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE
MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD FOR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE
NC...EVEN THO FORCING IS WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...AS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850 MB TEMPS AND
INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT
WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE
MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD FOR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE
NC...EVEN THO FORCING IS WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070823
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
423 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...AS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850 MB TEMPS AND
INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT
WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE
MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD FOR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE
NC...EVEN THO FORCING IS WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (KRIC/KSBY) JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, DO
ANTICIPATE A QUICK RETURN VFR CONDS BY MID MORNING WITH
A MUCH LOWER CHC OF CONVECTION TUE AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED
LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 305 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070823
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
423 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...AS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850 MB TEMPS AND
INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT
WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS AT THE
IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE
MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD FOR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE
NC...EVEN THO FORCING IS WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (KRIC/KSBY) JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, DO
ANTICIPATE A QUICK RETURN VFR CONDS BY MID MORNING WITH
A MUCH LOWER CHC OF CONVECTION TUE AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED
LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 305 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070705
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
305 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER WRN PA/NRN
WV...WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE PA THROUGH ERN MD AND INTO
ERN VA. THIS HAS BEEN A FOCAL POINT FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS OF 0945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCALLY IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
TIDEWATER. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 70-75 F AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ~1.8 IN. HENCE..LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW
TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY A RESULT OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (KRIC/KSBY) JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, DO
ANTICIPATE A QUICK RETURN VFR CONDS BY MID MORNING WITH
A MUCH LOWER CHC OF CONVECTION TUE AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED
LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

AS OF 305 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070705
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
305 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER WRN PA/NRN
WV...WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE PA THROUGH ERN MD AND INTO
ERN VA. THIS HAS BEEN A FOCAL POINT FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS OF 0945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCALLY IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
TIDEWATER. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 70-75 F AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ~1.8 IN. HENCE..LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW
TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY A RESULT OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (KRIC/KSBY) JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, DO
ANTICIPATE A QUICK RETURN VFR CONDS BY MID MORNING WITH
A MUCH LOWER CHC OF CONVECTION TUE AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED
LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

AS OF 305 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER WRN PA/NRN
WV...WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE PA THROUGH ERN MD AND INTO
ERN VA. THIS HAS BEEN A FOCAL POINT FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS OF 0945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCALLY IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
TIDEWATER. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 70-75 F AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ~1.8 IN. HENCE..LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW
TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY A RESULT OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (KRIC/KSBY) JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, DO
ANTICIPATE A QUICK RETURN VFR CONDS BY MID MORNING WITH
A MUCH LOWER CHC OF CONVECTION TUE AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED
LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER WRN PA/NRN
WV...WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE PA THROUGH ERN MD AND INTO
ERN VA. THIS HAS BEEN A FOCAL POINT FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS OF 0945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCALLY IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
TIDEWATER. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 70-75 F AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ~1.8 IN. HENCE..LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW
TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY A RESULT OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (KRIC/KSBY) JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, DO
ANTICIPATE A QUICK RETURN VFR CONDS BY MID MORNING WITH
A MUCH LOWER CHC OF CONVECTION TUE AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED
LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER WRN PA/NRN
WV...WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE PA THROUGH ERN MD AND INTO
ERN VA. THIS HAS BEEN A FOCAL POINT FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS OF 0945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCALLY IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
TIDEWATER. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 70-75 F AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ~1.8 IN. HENCE..LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW
TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY A RESULT OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (KRIC/KSBY) JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, DO
ANTICIPATE A QUICK RETURN VFR CONDS BY MID MORNING WITH
A MUCH LOWER CHC OF CONVECTION TUE AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED
LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...JDM/TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
955 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER WRN PA/NRN
WV...WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE PA THROUGH ERN MD AND INTO
ERN VA. THIS HAS BEEN A FOCAL POINT FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS OF 0945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCALLY IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
TIDEWATER. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 70-75 F AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ~1.8 IN. HENCE..LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW
TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY A RESULT OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TO PLAGUE MOSTLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE TROF ROTATES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TAF SITES THAT CAN STILL
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PHF AND ORF WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.

PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVG INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY GIVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMS
FOR TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CHC OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ISOLATED LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
955 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER WRN PA/NRN
WV...WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE PA THROUGH ERN MD AND INTO
ERN VA. THIS HAS BEEN A FOCAL POINT FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS OF 0945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCALLY IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
TIDEWATER. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 70-75 F AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ~1.8 IN. HENCE..LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW
TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY A RESULT OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TO PLAGUE MOSTLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE TROF ROTATES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TAF SITES THAT CAN STILL
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PHF AND ORF WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.

PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVG INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY GIVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMS
FOR TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CHC OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ISOLATED LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
955 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER WRN PA/NRN
WV...WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE PA THROUGH ERN MD AND INTO
ERN VA. THIS HAS BEEN A FOCAL POINT FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS OF 0945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCALLY IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
TIDEWATER. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 70-75 F AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ~1.8 IN. HENCE..LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW
TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY A RESULT OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TO PLAGUE MOSTLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE TROF ROTATES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TAF SITES THAT CAN STILL
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PHF AND ORF WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.

PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVG INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY GIVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMS
FOR TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CHC OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ISOLATED LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
955 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER WRN PA/NRN
WV...WITH SSW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE PA THROUGH ERN MD AND INTO
ERN VA. THIS HAS BEEN A FOCAL POINT FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS OF 0945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCALLY IS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
TIDEWATER. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
OF 70-75 F AND SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ~1.8 IN. HENCE..LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
MODESTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...LESS THAN 20 KT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NW
TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND LARGELY A RESULT OF WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TO PLAGUE MOSTLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE TROF ROTATES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TAF SITES THAT CAN STILL
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PHF AND ORF WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.

PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVG INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY GIVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMS
FOR TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CHC OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ISOLATED LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
906 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING
NORTH OF THE CWA. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW
CENTERED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO KY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO
2.00". CURRENT RADAR SHOWING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER
THE FAR SE....WITH SCATTERED TSTMS NOW THE NORM OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS AS THE UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING/FILLING IN/HEIGHTS
RISING. THUS THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
EVENING WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO).
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH TRENDS
ARE SUGGESTING DIMINISHING COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS STORMS FIRED
RATHER EARLY TODAY (WHICH TENDS TO LEAD TO THEM DIMINISHING EARLY
AS WELL). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN IN
HWO WITH GENLY 40-50% POPS THROUGH 9 PM MOST AREAS...DROPPING OFF
THEREAFTER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER
AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED SO WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO DETERMINE BASED ON AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TO PLAGUE MOSTLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE TROF ROTATES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TAF SITES THAT CAN STILL
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PHF AND ORF WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.

PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVG INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY GIVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMS
FOR TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CHC OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ISOLATED LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
906 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING
NORTH OF THE CWA. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW
CENTERED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO KY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO
2.00". CURRENT RADAR SHOWING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER
THE FAR SE....WITH SCATTERED TSTMS NOW THE NORM OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS AS THE UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING/FILLING IN/HEIGHTS
RISING. THUS THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
EVENING WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO).
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH TRENDS
ARE SUGGESTING DIMINISHING COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS STORMS FIRED
RATHER EARLY TODAY (WHICH TENDS TO LEAD TO THEM DIMINISHING EARLY
AS WELL). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN IN
HWO WITH GENLY 40-50% POPS THROUGH 9 PM MOST AREAS...DROPPING OFF
THEREAFTER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER
AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED SO WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO DETERMINE BASED ON AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TO PLAGUE MOSTLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE TROF ROTATES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TAF SITES THAT CAN STILL
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PHF AND ORF WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.

PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVG INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY GIVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMS
FOR TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CHC OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ISOLATED LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
906 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING
NORTH OF THE CWA. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW
CENTERED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO KY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO
2.00". CURRENT RADAR SHOWING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER
THE FAR SE....WITH SCATTERED TSTMS NOW THE NORM OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS AS THE UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING/FILLING IN/HEIGHTS
RISING. THUS THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
EVENING WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO).
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH TRENDS
ARE SUGGESTING DIMINISHING COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS STORMS FIRED
RATHER EARLY TODAY (WHICH TENDS TO LEAD TO THEM DIMINISHING EARLY
AS WELL). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN IN
HWO WITH GENLY 40-50% POPS THROUGH 9 PM MOST AREAS...DROPPING OFF
THEREAFTER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER
AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED SO WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO DETERMINE BASED ON AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TO PLAGUE MOSTLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE TROF ROTATES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TAF SITES THAT CAN STILL
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PHF AND ORF WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.

PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVG INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY GIVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMS
FOR TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CHC OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ISOLATED LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
906 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING
NORTH OF THE CWA. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW
CENTERED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO KY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO
2.00". CURRENT RADAR SHOWING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER
THE FAR SE....WITH SCATTERED TSTMS NOW THE NORM OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS AS THE UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING/FILLING IN/HEIGHTS
RISING. THUS THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
EVENING WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO).
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH TRENDS
ARE SUGGESTING DIMINISHING COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS STORMS FIRED
RATHER EARLY TODAY (WHICH TENDS TO LEAD TO THEM DIMINISHING EARLY
AS WELL). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN IN
HWO WITH GENLY 40-50% POPS THROUGH 9 PM MOST AREAS...DROPPING OFF
THEREAFTER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER
AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED SO WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO DETERMINE BASED ON AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONT TO PLAGUE MOSTLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE TROF ROTATES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TAF SITES THAT CAN STILL
BE AFFECTED INCLUDE PHF AND ORF WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KT. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.

PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVG INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY GIVE SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMS
FOR TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH DECREASING CHC OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTN/EVENING.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ISOLATED LATE
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JEF/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 062005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING
NORTH OF THE CWA. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW
CENTERED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO KY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO
2.00". CURRENT RADAR SHOWING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER
THE FAR SE....WITH SCATTERED TSTMS NOW THE NORM OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS AS THE UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING/FILLING IN/HEIGHTS
RISING. THUS THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
EVENING WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO).
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH TRENDS
ARE SUGGESTING DIMINISHING COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS STORMS FIRED
RATHER EARLY TODAY (WHICH TENDS TO LEAD TO THEM DIMINISHING EARLY
AS WELL). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN IN
HWO WITH GENLY 40-50% POPS THROUGH 9 PM MOST AREAS...DROPPING OFF
THEREAFTER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER
AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED SO WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO DETERMINE BASED ON AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARY ECG/ORF/PHF FROM 18Z THROUGH
23Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO RIC AND SBY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN IFR VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES
ESPECIALLY AT ORF...PHF AND ECG BETWEEN 18Z TO 23Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FASTER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL EVENINGS.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. JUST
ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 062005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATER
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING
NORTH OF THE CWA. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW
CENTERED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO KY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO
2.00". CURRENT RADAR SHOWING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER
THE FAR SE....WITH SCATTERED TSTMS NOW THE NORM OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS AS THE UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING/FILLING IN/HEIGHTS
RISING. THUS THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS
EVENING WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMO).
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH TRENDS
ARE SUGGESTING DIMINISHING COVERAGE BY SUNSET AS STORMS FIRED
RATHER EARLY TODAY (WHICH TENDS TO LEAD TO THEM DIMINISHING EARLY
AS WELL). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT NO
SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN IN
HWO WITH GENLY 40-50% POPS THROUGH 9 PM MOST AREAS...DROPPING OFF
THEREAFTER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S MOST OTHER
AREAS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED SO WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO DETERMINE BASED ON AREAS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS TO BE DRIER TUE...AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND ALLOWS THE UPPER
LOW OVER OHIO/WV TO WEAKEN/BECOME ENGULFED INTO THE STRONGER MEAN
FLOW. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG/OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC
COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SSW. ALONG WITH RISING 850
MB TEMPS AND INCREASING AMTS OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS
(FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE
80S. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES...EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK. WARM/HUMID TUE
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE
INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING
W/ HEATING COULD RESULT IN LATE DAY STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE 20% POPS SOUTH TO 40% NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F FAR N...TO THE
LOWER-MID 90S ELSEWHERE (LOCALLY 85-90 F AT THE BEACHES). HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100 F.  MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO
EARLY AM HRS THU THERE. LOWS 70-75 F. CONTINUED HOT THU...HIGHS
AGAIN 90-95 F (THOUGH AGAIN WILL STAY ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARY ECG/ORF/PHF FROM 18Z THROUGH
23Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO RIC AND SBY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN IFR VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES
ESPECIALLY AT ORF...PHF AND ECG BETWEEN 18Z TO 23Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FASTER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL EVENINGS.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. JUST
ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THRU THE COMING WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4 FT.
WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/JAO
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
144 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
ACRS MOST OF SE VA/NE NC. THIS IS WHERE LATEST RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTS SFC BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH SOME
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ADDED "HEAVY RAIN" WORDING TO THE
FORECAST HERE AS WELL. LATEST HRRR PICKING UP WELL ON THIS.
OVERALL...EXPECT COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS TO DIMINISH TO SCATTERED
AFTER 21Z...AS AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TEND TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT
SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW PUSHING NORTH INTO NRN VA/DELMARVA REGION.
FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SSW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED FROM THE UPPER
OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75 F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO 2.00". CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING ONE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER ERN/NE NC AND THIS
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE OUTER BANKS. ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER FAR NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE SKIES AVG
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NOTHING ON THE RADAR.WITH THE FRONT VERY
WEAK AND SLIDING N...AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR W AND FILLING
IN/HEIGHTS RISING THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO). A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT PLACEMENT
OF FEATURES LATER TODAY (GFS HITTING SEABREEZE HARDER WHILE THE
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE FARTHER INLAND). FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED TSTM WORDING THIS AFTN...MAINLY AFTER 18Z WITH POPS
40-50% MOST AREAS (HIGHEST FAR NW AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SE). MAY RAISE POPS TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING
DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN AND SOME CELL TRAINING/BACK-
BUILDING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES
SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION TO THE MEAN FLOW FROM 600-850MB
(LOW MBE VALUES). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS BUT
NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IN HWO. VRB
CLDS- PCLDY TODAY...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND
90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PRIMARY ECG/ORF/PHF FROM 18Z THROUGH
23Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO RIC AND SBY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN IFR VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES
ESPECIALLY AT ORF...PHF AND ECG BETWEEN 18Z TO 23Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FASTER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL EVENINGS.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. JUST
ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/JAO
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW
PUSHING NORTH INTO NRN VA/DELMARVA REGION. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE
SSW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75
F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO 2.00". CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ONE SMALL
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER ERN/NE NC AND THIS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE
OUTER BANKS. ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR NW SECTIONS OF
THE CWA...OTHERWISE SKIES AVG PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NOTHING
ON THE RADAR.

WITH THE FRONT VERY WEAK AND SLIDING N...AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
W AND FILLING IN/HEIGHTS RISING THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO). A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT TO
EXACT PLACEMENT OF FEATURES LATER TODAY (GFS HITTING SEABREEZE
HARDER WHILE THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE FARTHER INLAND). FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TSTM WORDING THIS AFTN...MAINLY AFTER 18Z
WITH POPS 40-50% MOST AREAS (HIGHEST FAR NW AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FAR SE). MAY RAISE POPS TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY
THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN AND SOME CELL TRAINING/BACK-
BUILDING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES
SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION TO THE MEAN FLOW FROM 600-850MB
(LOW MBE VALUES). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STMS BUT
NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-
PCLDY TODAY...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY NOW
PUSHING NORTH INTO NRN VA/DELMARVA REGION. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE
SSW WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW PTS 70-75
F AND PWATS FROM 1.60" TO 2.00". CURRENT RADAR SHOWING ONE SMALL
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER ERN/NE NC AND THIS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE
OUTER BANKS. ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR NW SECTIONS OF
THE CWA...OTHERWISE SKIES AVG PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NOTHING
ON THE RADAR.

WITH THE FRONT VERY WEAK AND SLIDING N...AND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
W AND FILLING IN/HEIGHTS RISING THE OVERALL TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE CLIMO). A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT TO
EXACT PLACEMENT OF FEATURES LATER TODAY (GFS HITTING SEABREEZE
HARDER WHILE THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE FARTHER INLAND). FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TSTM WORDING THIS AFTN...MAINLY AFTER 18Z
WITH POPS 40-50% MOST AREAS (HIGHEST FAR NW AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FAR SE). MAY RAISE POPS TO LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY
THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN AND SOME CELL TRAINING/BACK-
BUILDING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AS LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES
SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION TO THE MEAN FLOW FROM 600-850MB
(LOW MBE VALUES). SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY STMS BUT
NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...20 TO 25 KT. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-
PCLDY TODAY...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060834
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060834
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060834
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N ACRS THE WTRS
DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVNG N OF THE ENTIRE WTRS TNGT. SE
WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL BECOME S OVR ALL THE WTRS BY EARLY
TNGT...THEN SSW 10 TO 15 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNG. SSW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL CONTINUE TUE THRU WED...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THRU THU NGT INTO FRI MORNG. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY
MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REMNANT FNTL BNDRY RMNS INVOF SRN VA ATTM. THIS BNDRY SLOLY LIFTS
N THROUGH THE DAY AS WK LO PRES SFC-ALOFT MOVES NE FM WV.
SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS LINGER OVR PORTIONS OF ERN VA/LWR MD ERN SHORE
ATTM...AND WILL BE CONTG TO THE NE THE NEXT FEW HRS. XPCG A BREAK
IN THE PCPN INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. TROUGH SFC-ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
THE FA BY LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE PTNTLLY LEADING ADDITIONAL (SCT)
SHRAS/TSTMS. LCLLY HVY RA AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) PSBL IN ANY
STMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO. VRB CLDS-PCLDY
TDA...W/ HI TEMPS FM THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HANGING ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL ABT MDNGT TNGT
BEFORE LWRG THEREAFTER. THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER
BEGINNING TUE...AS THE UPPER LO WEAKENS WHILE TRACKING INTO NEW
ENG AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE MID ATLC CST. W/ A
SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HI TEMPS INTO THE L90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW
STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL
HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN L/M/70S.
WED XPCD TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE AFTN...BEFORE A CDFNT FM THE NW
DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING W/ HEATING COULD PSBLY RESULT IN ISOLD
STMS LT IN THE DAY JUST ABT ANYWAY IN FA. HI TEMPS AWAY FM THE
IMMEDIATE CST 90-95F (U80S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO MID 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060542
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060542
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT N
ACRS THE REGION DURING TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING N OF THE ENTIRE
AREA TNGT. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF DURING THE MORNG HRS. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...ESPLY
RIC AND SBY. THEN...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TUE INTO WED. JUST ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/WV PER
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 945 PM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AND S-CENTRAL VA. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND THE ERN VA
PIEDMONT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY OVER COASTAL NE NC...AND THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING SRN
VA FROM CENTRAL NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
REMAINS THE LARGEST THREAT. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
MORE FORWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOODING THREAT.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SLOW MOVING MERGING CELLS THAT
PRODUCED RADAR ESTIMATED 3-5 IN OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL VA/NORTHAMPTON NC LATE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO
RICHMOND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND SOME ENHANCED AREAS
OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO CHC POPS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2
OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. QPF TONIGHT AVERAGES 0.50-0.75" INLAND WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE COAST. LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE (AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED) IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL APPEARS TOO
LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED WNW-
ESE ACRS FAR SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER KY ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC. LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS IS OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND FORECAST WILL SHIFT
LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND AFTER
23Z. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND
SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO
CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2 OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW
TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
~30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY JUST A
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. QPF TONIGHT
AVERAGES 0.50-075" INLAND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT THE COAST.
LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL
APPEARS TOO LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LYING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAYBE A BIT
LONGER AS FRONT MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH WITH MINOR WAVES MOVING
ALONG THE BNDRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOR SBY/RIC/ECG BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW LOW VSBY MIGHT GO.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING ON
MON...THEN CHC FOR SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN.


&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 060158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED WNW-
ESE ACRS FAR SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER KY ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC. LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS IS OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND FORECAST WILL SHIFT
LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND AFTER
23Z. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND
SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO
CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2 OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW
TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
~30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY JUST A
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. QPF TONIGHT
AVERAGES 0.50-075" INLAND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT THE COAST.
LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL
APPEARS TOO LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LYING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MAYBE A BIT
LONGER AS FRONT MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH WITH MINOR WAVES MOVING
ALONG THE BNDRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOR SBY/RIC/ECG BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW LOW VSBY MIGHT GO.
VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING ON
MON...THEN CHC FOR SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN.


&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 052006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED WNW-
ESE ACRS FAR SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER KY ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC. LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS IS OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND FORECAST WILL SHIFT
LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND AFTER
23Z. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND
SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO
CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2 OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW
TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
~30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY JUST A
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. QPF TONIGHT
AVERAGES 0.50-075" INLAND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT THE COAST.
LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL
APPEARS TOO LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC/ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC/ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051925
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC/ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1148 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY AND ALIGNED W-E ACRS SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER KY/TN ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY
SUNNY ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND MAINLY CLOUDY OVER N/NW 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS AFTN...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF
POPS...GENLY SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGHER POPS BY ABOUT
2 HRS...JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER FAR W/SW
ZONES PRIOR TO 18Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM 18-21Z
WITH TSTMS ALSO DEVELOPING. WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO MOST OF
SCENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE NC AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA BY 20-21Z.
THIS IS WHERE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE SITUATED.
FARTHER N/E AND AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC//ERN VA
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AND POPS WILL AVG
20-30% PRIOR TO 21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WINDS (SUB-
SVR) THE MAIN THREATS FM ANY STORMS. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACRS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST).
LOCALLYHEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STORMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN
NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS
TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F
SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-30% POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT
AT THE CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO
MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN
HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050957
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
557 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPANDED INCLUSION OF AREAS OF FOG (AND ISSUED CORRESPONDING SPS)
INTO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR FM ABT RIC AND LOCATIONS TO THE
N AND W THROUGH 12-13Z/05.

PREV DISCUSSION:
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
437 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT. A FRNTL BNDRY
THAT WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. NNE
WINDS OR WSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT EARLY TODAY...WILL TURN TO THE
SE OR S FOR TNGT THRU MON. WINDS WILL THEN BE SSW AOB 15 KT
TUE/WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2-4 FT THRU MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FNTL BNDRY HAS STALLED ACRS SRN VA AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
INTO THIS AFTN...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATE
TDA. WILL HAVE A LO CHC FOR SHRAS THROUGH THE MRNG HRS ACRS SRN
VA/NE NC (INVOF/S OF THE BNDRY). THE FAVORED AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE TO RMN ACRS THOSE SAME
AREAS. LCLLY HEAVY RA...AND GUSTY WNDS (SUB-SVR) THE MAIN THREATS
FM ANY STMS. ADDED AREAS OF FG TO AREAS WELL WNW OF RIC (MNLY
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES IN VA)...OTRW MOSTLY CLOUDY
CNTRL/S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S AT OCEAN CITY
MD...TO THE L/M80S ELSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL MTNS TNGT. MDLS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PUSH INTO SW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD N/NE OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ACRS
MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALG THE CST). LCLLY
HEAVY RA AGN PSBL W/ ANY SHRAS/STMS. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE
U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING
A BIT TO THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE.
FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER...BUT WARMER BY TUE...WITH JUST 20-30%
POPS MNLY IN THE AFTN/EVE WITH HI TEMPS FM THE M80S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE L90S ELSW.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR
MOST OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER
AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING
OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...FRNTL BNDRY WAS LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH JUST
ISLTD SHOWERS OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS AT SBY AND POSSIBLY RIC EARLY THIS MORNG...THEN
MAINLY MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z-14Z. MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER THIS AFTN INTO MON...DUE TO FRNTL
BNDRY LIFTING THRU THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION
MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED
FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE SE OF CAPE
COD...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW BACK INTO ERN/SRN VA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALOFT...SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS...WITH ONE UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING OFF THE VA ERN SHORE...WITH
ISO-SCT ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM
250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET.

OVERALL...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND...AND RAP/HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. GIVEN THIS...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED DOWN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE. LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050038
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW INTO NORTHERN VA.
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH ONE UPPER TROUGH
OVER ERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER LAGGING WELL OFF TO OUR SW ACRS THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
UPPER LEVEL RRQ FORCING FROM 250-300 MB UPPER LEVEL JET. ANOTHER
AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ONGOING IN NE NC ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND...THIS ASSOCIATED MORE W/ HIGHER LEVELS ON
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL AREAS OF OF MDT/HVY RAIN (ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN VA/NE NC WHERE SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES/LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS FRI EVENING. THIS DUE TO PWATS 1.75 TO 2.00" AND SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS. CURRENTLY THOUGH...MUCH OF THIS
AREA NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. ALSO...SPC/RAP
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~30KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO SRN /SE VA BY
INTO EARLY EVENING...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS TO ~45 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING S/E OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH CONTINUED FORCING TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO THE
LWR 70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER EARLY SUN...THEN WILL MOVE BACK N ONCE AGN LATER SUN INTO
MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL
MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENARIO...LARGELY
RELATING TO TIMING AND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

THE FAVORED AREA OF ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM
SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY NE SUN. HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
PUSH INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENING...AND SLOWLY SPREAD
N/NE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN
ACRS MOST OF THE CWA (WILL KEEP POPS A LITTLE LOWER ALONG THE
COAST). MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB CLDS- MOSTLY
CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO THE N/W AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HI TEMPS IN THE L 80S NW
TO THE UPPER 80S SE. FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER BY TUE...WITH JUST
20-3% POPS MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 F.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUE (MOST OF IT OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MON) WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO INTERIOR NE
NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS
(1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE COMING WEEK AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE SERN
U.S. AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EAST WEST ORIENTED FRONT WAS SITUATED NEAR THE MD/VA BORDER AT
23Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS WAS PASSING THROUGH
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AT THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WAS EXPECTING TO IMPACT PHF AND ORF NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OFF THE COAST...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SETS IN. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT SBY AND RIC MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.

TSTM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO MONDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MD WATERS THIS AFTN
WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER ON SUNDAY. MAINLY W-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN W-SW AOB 15 KT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING E-SE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. LIGHT E-SE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING S-SW AOB 15 KT TUE/WED. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM




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