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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD ~1019 MB HI PRES OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH LO PRES WELL N OF THE AREA. ALOFT...A HI-
AMPLITUDE UPR-LEVEL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.
THE SFC HI SLIDES OFFSHORE TDA...WITH SLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODEL
THICKNESSES AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID
80S...UPR 80S PSBL IN SOME AREAS. OTWS...EXPECT A MSTLY/PRTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH CONTINUED DRY WX. FOR TNGT...AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO/SCT SHRAS...ESPECIALLY
OVR THE PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NGT WITH OVRNGT LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
INTO FRI. BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH DEEP
LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN ADDITION...AN
EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LO LEVEL
MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL CARRY
40-60% POPS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI
TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THU...IN THE LWR
TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL ONLY BE IN THE LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM THE
MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRSSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THE
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS ALONG
WITH SCT CU TODAY. S-SE WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTRMS INCREASE FRIDAY & CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG A STALLED COASTAL FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED IN SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT AN E-SE WIND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT WITH LATEST
WWA INDICATING SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT & SATURDAY
OUT NEAR 20 NM. WINDS BECOME S-SW BY SUNDAY REMAINING AOB 15 KTS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD ~1019 MB HI PRES OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH LO PRES WELL N OF THE AREA. ALOFT...A HI-
AMPLITUDE UPR-LEVEL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.
THE SFC HI SLIDES OFFSHORE TDA...WITH SLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODEL
THICKNESSES AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID
80S...UPR 80S PSBL IN SOME AREAS. OTWS...EXPECT A MSTLY/PRTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH CONTINUED DRY WX. FOR TNGT...AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO/SCT SHRAS...ESPECIALLY
OVR THE PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NGT WITH OVRNGT LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
INTO FRI. BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH DEEP
LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN ADDITION...AN
EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LO LEVEL
MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL CARRY
40-60% POPS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI
TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THU...IN THE LWR
TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL ONLY BE IN THE LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM THE
MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRSSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THE
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS ALONG
WITH SCT CU TODAY. S-SE WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTRMS INCREASE FRIDAY & CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG A STALLED COASTAL FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED IN SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT AN E-SE WIND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT WITH LATEST
WWA INDICATING SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT & SATURDAY
OUT NEAR 20 NM. WINDS BECOME S-SW BY SUNDAY REMAINING AOB 15 KTS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
116 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR DEPICTS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL NC AND OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PRECIP FREE. SINGLE LIGHT SHOWER REACHED INTO SRN BRUNSWICK COUNTY
BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY
CLEARED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING INTO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION PRECIP FREE AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR. STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
THU INTO FRI. WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE
LO LEVEL FLO ACRS THE AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT STILL SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. UNDER
A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
80S.

DURING FRI...BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH
DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN
ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL
CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (40-50%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND
PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRSSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THE
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS ALONG
WITH SCT CU TODAY. S-SE WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTRMS INCREASE FRIDAY & CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG A STALLED COASTAL FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SSE. A
COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY
FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TO SE BY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 15KT.
THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH
1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
116 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR DEPICTS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL NC AND OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PRECIP FREE. SINGLE LIGHT SHOWER REACHED INTO SRN BRUNSWICK COUNTY
BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY
CLEARED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING INTO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION PRECIP FREE AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR. STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
THU INTO FRI. WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE
LO LEVEL FLO ACRS THE AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT STILL SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. UNDER
A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
80S.

DURING FRI...BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH
DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN
ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL
CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (40-50%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND
PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRSSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THE
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS ALONG
WITH SCT CU TODAY. S-SE WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTRMS INCREASE FRIDAY & CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG A STALLED COASTAL FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SSE. A
COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY
FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TO SE BY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 15KT.
THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH
1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
942 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR DEPICTS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL NC AND OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PRECIP FREE. SINGLE LIGHT SHOWER REACHED INTO SRN BRUNSWICK COUNTY
BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY
CLEARED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING INTO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION PRECIP FREE AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR. STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
THU INTO FRI. WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE
LO LEVEL FLO ACRS THE AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT STILL SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. UNDER
A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
80S.

DURING FRI...BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH
DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN
ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL
CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (40-50%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND
PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES. WINDS
STAY LGT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. VFR
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SSE. A
COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY
FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TO SE BY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 15KT.
THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH
1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
942 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR DEPICTS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL NC AND OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PRECIP FREE. SINGLE LIGHT SHOWER REACHED INTO SRN BRUNSWICK COUNTY
BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY
CLEARED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING INTO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION PRECIP FREE AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR. STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
THU INTO FRI. WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE
LO LEVEL FLO ACRS THE AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT STILL SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. UNDER
A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
80S.

DURING FRI...BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH
DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN
ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL
CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (40-50%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND
PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES. WINDS
STAY LGT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. VFR
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SSE. A
COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY
FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TO SE BY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 15KT.
THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH
1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HI PRES OVR THE REGION WAS PROVIDING ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AFTN
UNDR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DEWPTS RANGED THRU THE 50S TO
NEAR 60...AND TEMPS RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. THE HI WILL
SLIDE OFFSHR TNGT INTO THU MORNG...RESULTING IN A DRY FCST UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE NGT
WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
THU INTO FRI. WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE
LO LEVEL FLO ACRS THE AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT STILL SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. UNDER
A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
80S.

DURING FRI...BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH
DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN
ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL
CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (40-50%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND
PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES. WINDS STAY LGT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. VFR
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SSE. A
COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY
FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TO SE BY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 15KT.
THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH
1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HI PRES OVR THE REGION WAS PROVIDING ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AFTN
UNDR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. DEWPTS RANGED THRU THE 50S TO
NEAR 60...AND TEMPS RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. THE HI WILL
SLIDE OFFSHR TNGT INTO THU MORNG...RESULTING IN A DRY FCST UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE NGT
WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
THU INTO FRI. WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE
LO LEVEL FLO ACRS THE AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT STILL SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. UNDER
A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
80S.

DURING FRI...BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH
DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN
ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL
CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (40-50%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND
PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES. WINDS STAY LGT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. VFR
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SSE. A
COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY
FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TO SE BY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 15KT.
THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH
1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301428
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISLTD SHOWERS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER EARLIER THIS MORNG HAVE
DIMINISHED. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WAS ACRS MOST
OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNG. BROAD/UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED
TROF WILL REMAIN OVR THE ERN CONUS...CONTINUING TO PROVIDE MAINLY
DRY/COMFORTABLE WX ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. EXPECTING A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH DEWPTS REMAINING FM THE 50S TO THE LWR
60S...AND HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST...TO THE LWR TO MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COMFY NGT TNGT W/ CLR TO PCLDY CONDS. MOST LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS/SHIFTS A BIT
WWD THU INTO FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH
SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...W/ DP LYRD SWLY FLO ALOFT
(OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN INCRSD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND
THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) FRI. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH
COOLER THAN THU...IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OVR THE
REGION TDA...SLIDING OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES.
WINDS STAY LGT TDA AND BCM SLY TNGT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TDA WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS...WINDS AOB 10 KT AND WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. THE HI SLIDES
OFFSHORE TNGT...WITH WINDS BCMG S/SE ~10 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THU WITH SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BLDG TO 3 FT. A CSTL/INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC CST FRI THRU SUN...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
S ON AVG WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVR THE WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301036
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COMFY AIR OVR THE FA ATTM. BKN-OVC CLDS (CIGS MNLY 6-8KFT)
ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA HOLDING UP TEMPS A BIT...OTRW
MOST TEMPS (AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST) FM THE M50S TO M60S.
BEEN WATCHING AREA OF SHRAS TRACKING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA
WHILE SLOLY DWINDLING (PAST COUPLE HRS). WILL HANG ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS NR THE VA/NC BORDER ON INTO INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. BROAD/UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH RMNS OVR THE ERN
CONUS...CONTG TO PROVIDE MNLY DRY/COMFY WX FOR THE FA TDA. XPCG
P/MSNY CONDS...W/ DEWPTS RMNG FM THE 50S TO L60S...AND HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F (ONCE AGN)...RANGING FM THE U70S ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST TO L/M80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COMFY NGT TNGT W/ CLR TO PCLDY CONDS. MOST LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS/SHIFTS A BIT
WWD THU INTO FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH
SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...W/ DP LYRD SWLY FLO ALOFT
(OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN INCRSD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND
THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) FRI. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH
COOLER THAN THU...IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OVR THE
REGION TDA...SLIDING OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES.
WINDS STAY LGT TDA AND BCM SLY TNGT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TDA WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS...WINDS AOB 10 KT AND WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. THE HI SLIDES
OFFSHORE TNGT...WITH WINDS BCMG S/SE ~10 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THU WITH SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BLDG TO 3 FT. A CSTL/INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC CST FRI THRU SUN...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
S ON AVG WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVR THE WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COMFY AIR OVR THE FA ATTM. BKN-OVC CLDS (CIGS MNLY 6-8KFT)
ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA HOLDING UP TEMPS A BIT...OTRW
MOST TEMPS (AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST) FM THE M50S TO M60S.
BEEN WATCHING AREA OF SHRAS TRACKING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA
WHILE SLOLY DWINDLING (PAST COUPLE HRS). WILL HANG ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS NR THE VA/NC BORDER ON INTO INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. BROAD/UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH RMNS OVR THE ERN
CONUS...CONTG TO PROVIDE MNLY DRY/COMFY WX FOR THE FA TDA. XPCG
P/MSNY CONDS...W/ DEWPTS RMNG FM THE 50S TO L60S...AND HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F (ONCE AGN)...RANGING FM THE U70S ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST TO L/M80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COMFY NGT TNGT W/ CLR TO PCLDY CONDS. MOST LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS/SHIFTS A BIT
WWD THU INTO FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH
SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...W/ DP LYRD SWLY FLO ALOFT
(OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN INCRSD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND
THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) FRI. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH
COOLER THAN THU...IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ERLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TDA WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS...WINDS AOB 10 KT AND WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. THE HI SLIDES
OFFSHORE TNGT...WITH WINDS BCMG S/SE ~10 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THU WITH SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BLDG TO 3 FT. A CSTL/INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC CST FRI THRU SUN...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
S ON AVG WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVR THE WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS






























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COMFY AIR OVR THE FA ATTM. BKN-OVC CLDS (CIGS MNLY 6-8KFT)
ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA HOLDING UP TEMPS A BIT...OTRW
MOST TEMPS (AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST) FM THE M50S TO M60S.
BEEN WATCHING AREA OF SHRAS TRACKING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA
WHILE SLOLY DWINDLING (PAST COUPLE HRS). WILL HANG ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS NR THE VA/NC BORDER ON INTO INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. BROAD/UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH RMNS OVR THE ERN
CONUS...CONTG TO PROVIDE MNLY DRY/COMFY WX FOR THE FA TDA. XPCG
P/MSNY CONDS...W/ DEWPTS RMNG FM THE 50S TO L60S...AND HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F (ONCE AGN)...RANGING FM THE U70S ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST TO L/M80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COMFY NGT TNGT W/ CLR TO PCLDY CONDS. MOST LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS/SHIFTS A BIT
WWD THU INTO FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH
SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...W/ DP LYRD SWLY FLO ALOFT
(OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN INCRSD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND
THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) FRI. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH
COOLER THAN THU...IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ERLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TDA WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS...WINDS AOB 10 KT AND WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. THE HI SLIDES
OFFSHORE TNGT...WITH WINDS BCMG S/SE ~10 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THU WITH SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BLDG TO 3 FT. A CSTL/INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC CST FRI THRU SUN...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
S ON AVG WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVR THE WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300658
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE
-3 STD DEV MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED N-S OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. CAPE
CONTINUES TO BE OVERDONE IN CONVECTIVE MODELS...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL. EXPECT CURRENT TRENDS TO DIMINISH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT
INTO CNTRL VA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO MORE THAN 10% POPS. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MID CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND. TEMP FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. RICHMOND RECORD LOW FOR JULY 30
IS 58 DEGS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS 61.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ERLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300658
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE
-3 STD DEV MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED N-S OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. CAPE
CONTINUES TO BE OVERDONE IN CONVECTIVE MODELS...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL. EXPECT CURRENT TRENDS TO DIMINISH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT
INTO CNTRL VA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO MORE THAN 10% POPS. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MID CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND. TEMP FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. RICHMOND RECORD LOW FOR JULY 30
IS 58 DEGS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS 61.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ERLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300123
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
923 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE
-3 STD DEV MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED N-S OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. CAPE
CONTINUES TO BE OVERDONE IN CONVECTIVE MODELS...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL. EXPECT CURRENT TRENDS TO DIMINISH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT
INTO CNTRL VA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO MORE THAN 10% POPS. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MID CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND. TEMP FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. RICHMOND RECORD LOW FOR JULY 30
IS 58 DEGS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS 61.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AKQ FORECAST AREA. WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL WAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP
INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO
VEER TO THE S/SE WED AFTERNOON WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300123
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
923 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/00Z RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE
-3 STD DEV MID-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED N-S OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. CAPE
CONTINUES TO BE OVERDONE IN CONVECTIVE MODELS...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL. EXPECT CURRENT TRENDS TO DIMINISH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT
INTO CNTRL VA. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO MORE THAN 10% POPS. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIP. EXPECT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE MID CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND. TEMP FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. RICHMOND RECORD LOW FOR JULY 30
IS 58 DEGS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS 61.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AKQ FORECAST AREA. WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL WAVE
PASSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP
INITIATE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO
VEER TO THE S/SE WED AFTERNOON WITH A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
AFTER A DELIGHTFUL EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
COMFY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
AFTER A DELIGHTFUL EVENING...MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
COMFY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING/SHIFTING FARTHER WEST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR THURS...WITH SSE LOW LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPR 80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASED TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND THUS
WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND
AND PCPN POSSIBLE...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN, WITH
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VLY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ~10 KT LATE THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT, WAVES 1-2 FT. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT WED/ WED
NGT AS SFC HI PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
E-SE BY THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES PASSES WELL N
OF THE LOCAL AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST BY THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS
(MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF
SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F
BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS
(MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF
SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F
BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU WAS PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. ONE BAND WAS MOVING OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF THESE CLOUDS WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3 TO 4K FT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OFF
TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE N AND NE OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND NW OR N AT RIC AND SBY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AFTN AND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS FROM SIMILAR DIRECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GO TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PCPN ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE BEGINNING FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
650 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS
(MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF
SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F
BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
650 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. MNLY SCT-BKN MID LVL CLDNS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE FA...ESP SRN VA/NE NC ATTM. AIR COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS
(MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT
RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE NC (IN AN AREA OF
SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F
BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO THE L80S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. COLD FRNT IS NOW WELL
OFFSHORE WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE NW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES OVR ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS AVG OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO
THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGE POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAS































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST...TO
THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGE POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAS
































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAS


















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALOFT INVOF ERN CONUS HAS DRIVEN CDFNT S
TO THE GULF CST THE PAST 24 HRS. W/ MNLY SKC OVR THE RGN...AIR
COMFY W/ LO DEWPTS (MNLY FM THE M50S TO L60S). XPCG A SUNNY TO
PCLDY DAY...THOUGH NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLD SHRA/TSTM INVOF CSTL NE
NC (IN AN AREA OF SLGTLY ENHANCED LO LVL CONVERGENCE). HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F BLO NORMAL...RANGING FM THE M/U70S AT THE
CST...TO THE L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVR ERN CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
COMFY/MSTLY SKC NGT TNGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE M50S TO L60S
MOST PLACES. P/MSNY AGN ON WED WITH HI IN THE L/M80S. MOSTLY CLEAR
WED NGT WITH LO TEMPS RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. WK SFC HI PRES
WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH SSE LO LVL FLO ACRS THE AREA.
ONLY A VERY SLGT INCRS IN HUMIDITY IS XPCD (ON THU)...OTRW P/MSNY
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S (MAYBE A FEW U80S INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT. ON FRIDAY...MDLS BEGINNING TO BRING INCRSG MOISTURE
INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP AN AVG OF 10% (HIGHEST
INLAND) FOR FRI...RESULTING IN PSBL ISOLD/SCT PCPN (MNLY AWAY FM
THE CST) ALG W/ VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS.

SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MS VLY
AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO
NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT IS PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE ERLY THIS MORNG. SCA FOR THE
BAY/LWR JAMES WILL END AT 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CAA BEHIND THE FRNT. WITH HI PRES BLDG IN FM THE W AND
WINDS 5-10 KT...SOME SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE PSBL TDA. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT INTO WED WITH SFC HI PRES STILL IN THE VICINITY. WINDS BCM SLY BY
THU AS THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LO PRES PASSES WELL N OF THE LOCAL
AREA. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAS

















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER ME. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH (-3 STD DEV H5 HEIGHTS) WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 30M BY TUES
MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER ME. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH (-3 STD DEV H5 HEIGHTS) WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 30M BY TUES
MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE TDA.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS/JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290224
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER ME. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH (-3 STD DEV H5 HEIGHTS) WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 30M BY TUES
MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290224
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1024 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER ME. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED DUE TO RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SKIES HAVE ALSO CLEARED IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH (-3 STD DEV H5 HEIGHTS) WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE
OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 30M BY TUES
MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NW/N BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WAS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD LARGELY CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST...ON TUESDAY.
WINDS BECOME N/NE ON TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 08Z TUESDAY. WINDS DURING THE AFTN WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO SCA. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE A NW SURGE DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB/LSA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281442
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281442
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO CNTRL VA AND NC LATE THIS
MORNG...AS BREEZY WEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WERE
DROPPING DWPTS INTO THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
TWD THE CST THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

A WLY 80-90 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO CNTRL VA THIS AFTN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSIDENCE OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSLOPE DRYING TO ENDURE AND RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS ARND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE NICELY WHILE DRIVING DWPTS DOWN DRAMATICALLY
(MID 50S NW TO LWR 60S SE)...AS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...UNDER A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COAST THIS EVENING. SINCE MOST
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND WEAK CAA IS ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CHES
BAY INTO FAR SE VA/NE NC AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
LINGERING ALONG THE NOW STALLED CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT. POPS ARE
CAPPED FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPS WILL FEEL COOL AND
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S INLAND/MID-UPPER 60S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE MID ATLC REGION WED NGT...WILL
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THU THRU SUN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED NGT INTO
FRI...WILL DRIFT BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI THRU SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR WED NGT INTO FRI...THEN INCREASE TO SLGT CHC
OR CHC POPS FOR FRI NGT THRU SUN. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WED NGT
AND THU...BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY/LO LVL MOIST RETURNS
FOR FRI THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S
THU MORNG...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S SAT
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DP LYRD WSW FLO OVR THE MDATLC RGN HAS RESULTED IN ANY CONVECTION
EXITING THE MTNS OVRNGT TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E TWD THE CSTL
PLAIN. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRA/TSTM THROUGH EARLY/MID
MRNG...MNLY INVOF SE VA/NE NC...(MAYBE AGN LT AFTN/EARLY EVE FAR
SE VA/CSTL NE NC)...THOUGH PCPN CHCS LWRG. VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH
TDA...GUSTY W WNDS TO ABT 25 KT W/ LIMITED CLDNS. SFC CDFNT TO BE
OFF THE CST BY TNGT RESULTING IN WIND SHIFT TO NNW FOR
TNGT/TUE...ALG W/ ONLY SCT CLDNS (CONTD VFR CONDS).

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MIDWEEK. SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS PSBL
NR SUNRISE BUT WIDESPREAD IFR NOT XPCD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A CDFNT PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLC WTRS BY LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...THEN WELL E OFF THE CST BY LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE. SURGE
IN SPEEDS ATTM W/ WSW WNDS...RESULTING IN LO END SCA FOR THE
BAY/PORTION OF RIVERS. WNDS (BECOME) W TDA...XPCG SPEEDS TO WANE
THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN BECOME NW AND N TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. VRB
WINDS AOB 10 KT XCPD WED THRU THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB







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