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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
826 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND/PRINCE
EDWARD/GOOCHLAND (LEFT INTACT FOR FLUVANNA/LOUISA).

CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE...RIDGING SW INTO THE NRN MID ATLC REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SFC DEW PTS ARE MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 30 F ACRS THE
CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW (I.E. LOUISA/FLUVANNA). DEW
PTS CRITICAL FOR ENOUGH COLUMN COOLING TO LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE LIMITED TO THOSE 2 COUNTIES...WITH JUST PLAIN RAIN TO THE
BUFFERING COUNTIES TO THE SE...FVX CURRENTLY 36/31 AND AT MOST
WOULD DROP TO MAYBE 33-34 F IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT A COLD RAIN
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TMPS STEADY IN THE 30S EXCEPT IN THE
40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRS TRACKS NE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS KEEPING A
N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE FA AS HIGH PRS RETREATS FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BEST LIFT AND OMEGA SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NE SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER 18Z...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS (BUT HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS FOCUSED E OF I-95). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S NW TO
AROUND 50 F COASTAL NE NC. QPF TOTALS AVG ONLY 0.10 TO 0.20" NW TO
0.50" TO 0.75" NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING...SFC LOW PRS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TONIGHT REACHING THE SRN NJ COAST BY 12Z TUE. BEST SPRT FOR
WDSPRD PCPN SHIFTS TOWARD THE DELMARVA. SO RAIN CHCS CONT THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S.

OVERNIGHT...WDPSRD LL MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS AFTR MIDNIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH
THE STDY AND HVNST RAINS SHUD END AS THE PUSH NE...XPCT AREAS OF LGT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THRU THE NIGHT. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S. TOTAL QPF
NEXT 24 HRS RANGE BTWN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...UP TO THREE
QUARTERS INCH ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC.

TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED PTRN CONTINUES AS LOW PRS IS SLOW TO PULL NE
DUE TO A STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON NIGHT...THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED SO
MAINTAINED A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TUE. GIVEN
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE...WENT
WITH THE COOLER GUID NMBRS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE M-U40S ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 TO THE M-U50S IN SERN VA/NE NC.

TUE NIGHT / WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM
THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL CAPE) ON
WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO AROUND 70 F
(CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME
IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/
BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST
TODAY...THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA. E-NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY AVG 10-15 KT TODAY ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND THE
RIVERS...AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND. MIGHT EVEN GET SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE LOWER BAY TODAY...WITH SEAS 3-4
FT ON THE OCEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT SOUTH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE
COASTAL ZONE SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO THE SCA AS SEAS LOOK TO REACH
5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
LIFTING NORTH...REMAINING FROM AN E-NE DIRECTION NORTH AND TURNING
OFFSHORE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN SCA ATTM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE
THE RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
826 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND/PRINCE
EDWARD/GOOCHLAND (LEFT INTACT FOR FLUVANNA/LOUISA).

CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE...RIDGING SW INTO THE NRN MID ATLC REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SFC DEW PTS ARE MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 30 F ACRS THE
CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW (I.E. LOUISA/FLUVANNA). DEW
PTS CRITICAL FOR ENOUGH COLUMN COOLING TO LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE LIMITED TO THOSE 2 COUNTIES...WITH JUST PLAIN RAIN TO THE
BUFFERING COUNTIES TO THE SE...FVX CURRENTLY 36/31 AND AT MOST
WOULD DROP TO MAYBE 33-34 F IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT A COLD RAIN
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TMPS STEADY IN THE 30S EXCEPT IN THE
40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRS TRACKS NE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS KEEPING A
N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE FA AS HIGH PRS RETREATS FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BEST LIFT AND OMEGA SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NE SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER 18Z...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS (BUT HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS FOCUSED E OF I-95). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S NW TO
AROUND 50 F COASTAL NE NC. QPF TOTALS AVG ONLY 0.10 TO 0.20" NW TO
0.50" TO 0.75" NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING...SFC LOW PRS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TONIGHT REACHING THE SRN NJ COAST BY 12Z TUE. BEST SPRT FOR
WDSPRD PCPN SHIFTS TOWARD THE DELMARVA. SO RAIN CHCS CONT THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S.

OVERNIGHT...WDPSRD LL MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS AFTR MIDNIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH
THE STDY AND HVNST RAINS SHUD END AS THE PUSH NE...XPCT AREAS OF LGT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THRU THE NIGHT. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S. TOTAL QPF
NEXT 24 HRS RANGE BTWN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...UP TO THREE
QUARTERS INCH ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC.

TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED PTRN CONTINUES AS LOW PRS IS SLOW TO PULL NE
DUE TO A STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON NIGHT...THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED SO
MAINTAINED A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TUE. GIVEN
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE...WENT
WITH THE COOLER GUID NMBRS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE M-U40S ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 TO THE M-U50S IN SERN VA/NE NC.

TUE NIGHT / WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM
THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL CAPE) ON
WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO AROUND 70 F
(CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME
IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/
BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST
TODAY...THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA. E-NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY AVG 10-15 KT TODAY ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND THE
RIVERS...AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND. MIGHT EVEN GET SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE LOWER BAY TODAY...WITH SEAS 3-4
FT ON THE OCEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT SOUTH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE
COASTAL ZONE SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO THE SCA AS SEAS LOOK TO REACH
5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
LIFTING NORTH...REMAINING FROM AN E-NE DIRECTION NORTH AND TURNING
OFFSHORE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN SCA ATTM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE
THE RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
826 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND/PRINCE
EDWARD/GOOCHLAND (LEFT INTACT FOR FLUVANNA/LOUISA).

CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE...RIDGING SW INTO THE NRN MID ATLC REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SFC DEW PTS ARE MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 30 F ACRS THE
CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW (I.E. LOUISA/FLUVANNA). DEW
PTS CRITICAL FOR ENOUGH COLUMN COOLING TO LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE LIMITED TO THOSE 2 COUNTIES...WITH JUST PLAIN RAIN TO THE
BUFFERING COUNTIES TO THE SE...FVX CURRENTLY 36/31 AND AT MOST
WOULD DROP TO MAYBE 33-34 F IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT A COLD RAIN
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TMPS STEADY IN THE 30S EXCEPT IN THE
40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRS TRACKS NE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS KEEPING A
N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE FA AS HIGH PRS RETREATS FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BEST LIFT AND OMEGA SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NE SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER 18Z...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS (BUT HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS FOCUSED E OF I-95). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S NW TO
AROUND 50 F COASTAL NE NC. QPF TOTALS AVG ONLY 0.10 TO 0.20" NW TO
0.50" TO 0.75" NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING...SFC LOW PRS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TONIGHT REACHING THE SRN NJ COAST BY 12Z TUE. BEST SPRT FOR
WDSPRD PCPN SHIFTS TOWARD THE DELMARVA. SO RAIN CHCS CONT THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S.

OVERNIGHT...WDPSRD LL MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS AFTR MIDNIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH
THE STDY AND HVNST RAINS SHUD END AS THE PUSH NE...XPCT AREAS OF LGT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THRU THE NIGHT. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S. TOTAL QPF
NEXT 24 HRS RANGE BTWN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...UP TO THREE
QUARTERS INCH ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC.

TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED PTRN CONTINUES AS LOW PRS IS SLOW TO PULL NE
DUE TO A STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON NIGHT...THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED SO
MAINTAINED A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TUE. GIVEN
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE...WENT
WITH THE COOLER GUID NMBRS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE M-U40S ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 TO THE M-U50S IN SERN VA/NE NC.

TUE NIGHT / WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM
THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL CAPE) ON
WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO AROUND 70 F
(CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME
IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/
BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST
TODAY...THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA. E-NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY AVG 10-15 KT TODAY ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND THE
RIVERS...AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND. MIGHT EVEN GET SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE LOWER BAY TODAY...WITH SEAS 3-4
FT ON THE OCEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT SOUTH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE
COASTAL ZONE SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO THE SCA AS SEAS LOOK TO REACH
5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
LIFTING NORTH...REMAINING FROM AN E-NE DIRECTION NORTH AND TURNING
OFFSHORE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN SCA ATTM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE
THE RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221326
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
826 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND/PRINCE
EDWARD/GOOCHLAND (LEFT INTACT FOR FLUVANNA/LOUISA).

CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE...RIDGING SW INTO THE NRN MID ATLC REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SFC DEW PTS ARE MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 30 F ACRS THE
CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW (I.E. LOUISA/FLUVANNA). DEW
PTS CRITICAL FOR ENOUGH COLUMN COOLING TO LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE LIMITED TO THOSE 2 COUNTIES...WITH JUST PLAIN RAIN TO THE
BUFFERING COUNTIES TO THE SE...FVX CURRENTLY 36/31 AND AT MOST
WOULD DROP TO MAYBE 33-34 F IN HEAVIER PRECIP. EXPECT A COLD RAIN
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TMPS STEADY IN THE 30S EXCEPT IN THE
40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRS TRACKS NE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS KEEPING A
N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE FA AS HIGH PRS RETREATS FARTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BEST LIFT AND OMEGA SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NE SECTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER 18Z...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS (BUT HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS FOCUSED E OF I-95). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S NW TO
AROUND 50 F COASTAL NE NC. QPF TOTALS AVG ONLY 0.10 TO 0.20" NW TO
0.50" TO 0.75" NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING...SFC LOW PRS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TONIGHT REACHING THE SRN NJ COAST BY 12Z TUE. BEST SPRT FOR
WDSPRD PCPN SHIFTS TOWARD THE DELMARVA. SO RAIN CHCS CONT THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S.

OVERNIGHT...WDPSRD LL MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS AFTR MIDNIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH
THE STDY AND HVNST RAINS SHUD END AS THE PUSH NE...XPCT AREAS OF LGT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THRU THE NIGHT. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S. TOTAL QPF
NEXT 24 HRS RANGE BTWN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...UP TO THREE
QUARTERS INCH ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC.

TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED PTRN CONTINUES AS LOW PRS IS SLOW TO PULL NE
DUE TO A STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON NIGHT...THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED SO
MAINTAINED A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TUE. GIVEN
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE...WENT
WITH THE COOLER GUID NMBRS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE M-U40S ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 TO THE M-U50S IN SERN VA/NE NC.

TUE NIGHT / WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM
THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL CAPE) ON
WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO AROUND 70 F
(CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME
IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/
BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST
TODAY...THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA. E-NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY AVG 10-15 KT TODAY ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND THE
RIVERS...AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND. MIGHT EVEN GET SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE LOWER BAY TODAY...WITH SEAS 3-4
FT ON THE OCEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT SOUTH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE
COASTAL ZONE SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO THE SCA AS SEAS LOOK TO REACH
5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
LIFTING NORTH...REMAINING FROM AN E-NE DIRECTION NORTH AND TURNING
OFFSHORE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN SCA ATTM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE
THE RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TOODAY/...
THIS MORNING...PCPN QUICKLY OVRSPREADING THE FA SW-NE BUT STAYING
MAINLY EAST OF AREAS WHERE TMPS ARE AOB FREEZING...SO NO P-TYPE
ISSUES NOTED AS OF THIS WRITING. APPEARS PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY GET
TO THE NWRN CNTYS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z. GIVEN CRNT TMP/DP TMPS...
HAVE ADDED GOOCHLAND CNTY (WRN HALF MAINLY WEST OF ST RT 522 TO THE
ADVSRY). WET BULBS ACROSS THE ADVSRY AREA HOVER AOB 32 THRU THE
MORNING HRS...SO THE ZR ADVSRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. OTHER THAN A
FEW IP AT THE ONSET... EXPECT A COLD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH TMPS STEADY IN THE 30S XCPT 40S SERN CSTL AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRS TRACKS NE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS KEEPING A
N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE FA AS HIGH PRS RETREATS INTO NEW ENGLAND. BEST
LIFT AND OMEGA PROGGED BTWN 16Z-00Z. POPS INCRSD TO NEAR 100% ALL
AREAS. THUS...XPCT A COLD / WET AFTRN AHEAD AS IN-SITU WEDGE CONTS.
PCPN ALL LIQUID AS TMPS INCH JUST ABV FREEZING ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS.
TMPS BTWN 35-40 ALONG AND W OF I95...40-45 TO THE COASTAL AREAS XCPT
U40S-L50S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING...SFC LOW PRS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TONIGHT REACHING THE SRN NJ COAST BY 12Z TUE. BEST SPRT FOR
WDSPRD PCPN SHIFTS TOWARD THE DELMARVA. SO RAIN CHCS CONT THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S.

OVERNIGHT...WDPSRD LL MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS AFTR MIDNIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH
THE STDY AND HVNST RAINS SHUD END AS THE PUSH NE...XPCT AREAS OF LGT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THRU THE NIGHT. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S. TOTAL QPF
NEXT 24 HRS RANGE BTWN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...UP TO THREE
QUARTERS INCH ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC.

TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED PTRN CONTINUES AS LOW PRS IS SLOW TO PULL NE
DUE TO A STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON NIGHT...THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED SO
MAINTAINED A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TUE. GIVEN
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE...WENT
WITH THE COOLER GUID NMBRS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE M-U40S ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 TO THE M-U50S IN SERN VA/NE NC.

TUE NIGHT / WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM
THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL CAPE) ON
WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO AROUND 70 F
(CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME
IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/
BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST
TODAY...THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA. E-NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY AVG 10-15 KT TODAY ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND THE
RIVERS...AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND. MIGHT EVEN GET SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE LOWER BAY TODAY...WITH SEAS 3-4
FT ON THE OCEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT SOUTH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE
COASTAL ZONE SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO THE SCA AS SEAS LOOK TO REACH
5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
LIFTING NORTH...REMAINING FROM AN E-NE DIRECTION NORTH AND TURNING
OFFSHORE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN SCA ATTM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE
THE RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>062.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TOODAY/...
THIS MORNING...PCPN QUICKLY OVRSPREADING THE FA SW-NE BUT STAYING
MAINLY EAST OF AREAS WHERE TMPS ARE AOB FREEZING...SO NO P-TYPE
ISSUES NOTED AS OF THIS WRITING. APPEARS PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY GET
TO THE NWRN CNTYS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z. GIVEN CRNT TMP/DP TMPS...
HAVE ADDED GOOCHLAND CNTY (WRN HALF MAINLY WEST OF ST RT 522 TO THE
ADVSRY). WET BULBS ACROSS THE ADVSRY AREA HOVER AOB 32 THRU THE
MORNING HRS...SO THE ZR ADVSRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. OTHER THAN A
FEW IP AT THE ONSET... EXPECT A COLD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH TMPS STEADY IN THE 30S XCPT 40S SERN CSTL AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRS TRACKS NE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS KEEPING A
N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE FA AS HIGH PRS RETREATS INTO NEW ENGLAND. BEST
LIFT AND OMEGA PROGGED BTWN 16Z-00Z. POPS INCRSD TO NEAR 100% ALL
AREAS. THUS...XPCT A COLD / WET AFTRN AHEAD AS IN-SITU WEDGE CONTS.
PCPN ALL LIQUID AS TMPS INCH JUST ABV FREEZING ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS.
TMPS BTWN 35-40 ALONG AND W OF I95...40-45 TO THE COASTAL AREAS XCPT
U40S-L50S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING...SFC LOW PRS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TONIGHT REACHING THE SRN NJ COAST BY 12Z TUE. BEST SPRT FOR
WDSPRD PCPN SHIFTS TOWARD THE DELMARVA. SO RAIN CHCS CONT THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S.

OVERNIGHT...WDPSRD LL MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS AFTR MIDNIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH
THE STDY AND HVNST RAINS SHUD END AS THE PUSH NE...XPCT AREAS OF LGT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THRU THE NIGHT. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S. TOTAL QPF
NEXT 24 HRS RANGE BTWN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...UP TO THREE
QUARTERS INCH ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC.

TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED PTRN CONTINUES AS LOW PRS IS SLOW TO PULL NE
DUE TO A STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON NIGHT...THROUGH THE
MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED SO
MAINTAINED A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TUE. GIVEN
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE...WENT
WITH THE COOLER GUID NMBRS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE M-U40S ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 TO THE M-U50S IN SERN VA/NE NC.

TUE NIGHT / WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM
THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL CAPE) ON
WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO AROUND 70 F
(CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING
OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME
IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/
BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST
TODAY...THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA. E-NE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY AVG 10-15 KT TODAY ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND THE
RIVERS...AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND. MIGHT EVEN GET SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE LOWER BAY TODAY...WITH SEAS 3-4
FT ON THE OCEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT SOUTH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE
COASTAL ZONE SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO THE SCA AS SEAS LOOK TO REACH
5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
LIFTING NORTH...REMAINING FROM AN E-NE DIRECTION NORTH AND TURNING
OFFSHORE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT OUT
AROUND 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN SCA ATTM.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE
THE RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>062.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220646
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT BASED ON CRNT TRENDS FOR THE ERLY MORNING
UPDATE. MIN TEMPS HAVE BASICALY BEEN REACHED AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS
OF RISING PAST FEW HRS SINCE THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN. RAIN
COVERAGE QUICKLY EXPANDING AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS ERN NC AND INTO
SRN VA SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS THRU 4 AM AND XPANDED THE RAIN
FARTHER NORTH. ALSO NOT THAT WRN PIEDMONT TEMPS ARE ABV FREEZING
(34 @ LKU...38 @ FVX)...HOWEVER WET BULB TMPS HOVERING ARND 32 SO
XPCT PCPN TO BE A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS IT BEGINS LATER ON. FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MIX TOWARDS SUNRISE SO CRNT ADVSRY
REMAINS IN PLACE. TMPS STDY OR SLOWLY RISING FROM CRNT VALUES...
MAINLY IN THE 30S.

PVS DSCN:
WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45
EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME
IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/
BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

     AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
     EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS/WRS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220646
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT BASED ON CRNT TRENDS FOR THE ERLY MORNING
UPDATE. MIN TEMPS HAVE BASICALY BEEN REACHED AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS
OF RISING PAST FEW HRS SINCE THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN. RAIN
COVERAGE QUICKLY EXPANDING AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS ERN NC AND INTO
SRN VA SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS THRU 4 AM AND XPANDED THE RAIN
FARTHER NORTH. ALSO NOT THAT WRN PIEDMONT TEMPS ARE ABV FREEZING
(34 @ LKU...38 @ FVX)...HOWEVER WET BULB TMPS HOVERING ARND 32 SO
XPCT PCPN TO BE A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS IT BEGINS LATER ON. FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MIX TOWARDS SUNRISE SO CRNT ADVSRY
REMAINS IN PLACE. TMPS STDY OR SLOWLY RISING FROM CRNT VALUES...
MAINLY IN THE 30S.

PVS DSCN:
WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45
EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME
IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/
BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

     AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
     EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS/WRS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
106 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT BASED ON CRNT TRENDS FOR THE ERLY MORNING
UPDATE. MIN TEMPS HAVE BASICALY BEEN REACHED AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS
OF RISING PAST FEW HRS SINCE THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN. RAIN
COVERAGE QUICKLY EXPANDING AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS ERN NC AND INTO
SRN VA SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS THRU 4 AM AND XPANDED THE RAIN
FARTHER NORTH. ALSO NOT THAT WRN PIEDMONT TEMPS ARE ABV FREEZING
(34 @ LKU...38 @ FVX)...HOWEVER WET BULB TMPS HOVERING ARND 32 SO
XPCT PCPN TO BE A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS IT BEGINS LATER ON. FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MIX TOWARDS SUNRISE SO CRNT ADVSRY
REMAINS IN PLACE. TMPS STDY OR SLOWLY RISING FROM CRNT VALUES...
MAINLY IN THE 30S.

PVS DSCN:
WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45
EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NE INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. CEILINGS IN TO 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A
COOL/RAINY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP
WILL TRACK S TO N MONDAY MORNING... EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ
TAF SITE. MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IP/FZRA AT KRIC...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SOME IP/FZRA
POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

     AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
     EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS/WRS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
106 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT BASED ON CRNT TRENDS FOR THE ERLY MORNING
UPDATE. MIN TEMPS HAVE BASICALY BEEN REACHED AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS
OF RISING PAST FEW HRS SINCE THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN. RAIN
COVERAGE QUICKLY EXPANDING AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS ERN NC AND INTO
SRN VA SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS THRU 4 AM AND XPANDED THE RAIN
FARTHER NORTH. ALSO NOT THAT WRN PIEDMONT TEMPS ARE ABV FREEZING
(34 @ LKU...38 @ FVX)...HOWEVER WET BULB TMPS HOVERING ARND 32 SO
XPCT PCPN TO BE A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS IT BEGINS LATER ON. FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MIX TOWARDS SUNRISE SO CRNT ADVSRY
REMAINS IN PLACE. TMPS STDY OR SLOWLY RISING FROM CRNT VALUES...
MAINLY IN THE 30S.

PVS DSCN:
WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45
EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NE INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. CEILINGS IN TO 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A
COOL/RAINY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP
WILL TRACK S TO N MONDAY MORNING... EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ
TAF SITE. MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IP/FZRA AT KRIC...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SOME IP/FZRA
POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

     AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON
     EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS/WRS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
910 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES EXTENDING FM ERN NEW ENG TO THE MDATLC RGN WILL CONT
TO WEAKEN OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...WK SFC LO PRES TAKING SHAPE E OF
GA/SC CST AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING NE THROUGH THE NGT. CLDNS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SCNTRL VA FM NC. TEMPS HAVE INITIALLY
DROPPED TO OR BLO FREEZING IN SOME PLACES (INLAND). W/ BKN-OVC
CLDNS STARTING TO ARRIVE...TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A FEW DEGS F
FM FVX TO THE NC/VA BORDER. ALSO...PATCHY LGT RA STARTING TO
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO SRN NC.

PROBLEMS OF THE NGT ARE THE INCRSG CLDNS (AND HOW TEMPS RESPOND)
AND ARRIVAL OF PCPN. CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF FA WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE
LO TEMPS BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE ACRS THE NNE (WHERE CLDNS SLOWER TO
ARRIVE)...READINGS LIKELY TO DROP AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL DEGS F.

WHILE TEMPS ACRS NW PIEDMONT HAVE SETTLED BLO FREEZING...LAMP TEMP
GUID ONLY BRING TEMPS BACK TO ARND 32F AS CLDNS AND EVENTUALLY
PCPN ARRIVES LT. ONLY VERY LGT AMTS OF PCPN XPCD...BUT PSBLY JUST
ENOUGH FOR VERY LGT ICING (-ZR) ON UNTREATED/COLDER EXPOSED
SURFACES. CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL RMN IN PLACE.
ELSW...WHILE A BIT OF IP PSBL A BEGINNING OF PCPN..ESP ACRS
INTERIOR CNTRL/SRN VA-NE NC...XPCG TEMPS (IF THEY HAVE FALLEN
TO/JUST BLO FREEZING THIS EVE) WILL RISE BACK TO OR ABOVE FREEZING
BY LT TNGT...SO NO ICING PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. LO TEMPS IN THE
M/U20S ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...TO U20S TO U30S ELSW.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45
EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NE INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. CEILINGS IN TO 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A
COOL/RAINY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP
WILL TRACK S TO N MONDAY MORNING... EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ
TAF SITE. MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IP/FZRA AT KRIC...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SOME IP/FZRA
POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

     AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-
     049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS/WRS





























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
910 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES EXTENDING FM ERN NEW ENG TO THE MDATLC RGN WILL CONT
TO WEAKEN OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...WK SFC LO PRES TAKING SHAPE E OF
GA/SC CST AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING NE THROUGH THE NGT. CLDNS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SCNTRL VA FM NC. TEMPS HAVE INITIALLY
DROPPED TO OR BLO FREEZING IN SOME PLACES (INLAND). W/ BKN-OVC
CLDNS STARTING TO ARRIVE...TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A FEW DEGS F
FM FVX TO THE NC/VA BORDER. ALSO...PATCHY LGT RA STARTING TO
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO SRN NC.

PROBLEMS OF THE NGT ARE THE INCRSG CLDNS (AND HOW TEMPS RESPOND)
AND ARRIVAL OF PCPN. CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF FA WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE
LO TEMPS BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE ACRS THE NNE (WHERE CLDNS SLOWER TO
ARRIVE)...READINGS LIKELY TO DROP AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL DEGS F.

WHILE TEMPS ACRS NW PIEDMONT HAVE SETTLED BLO FREEZING...LAMP TEMP
GUID ONLY BRING TEMPS BACK TO ARND 32F AS CLDNS AND EVENTUALLY
PCPN ARRIVES LT. ONLY VERY LGT AMTS OF PCPN XPCD...BUT PSBLY JUST
ENOUGH FOR VERY LGT ICING (-ZR) ON UNTREATED/COLDER EXPOSED
SURFACES. CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL RMN IN PLACE.
ELSW...WHILE A BIT OF IP PSBL A BEGINNING OF PCPN..ESP ACRS
INTERIOR CNTRL/SRN VA-NE NC...XPCG TEMPS (IF THEY HAVE FALLEN
TO/JUST BLO FREEZING THIS EVE) WILL RISE BACK TO OR ABOVE FREEZING
BY LT TNGT...SO NO ICING PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. LO TEMPS IN THE
M/U20S ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...TO U20S TO U30S ELSW.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45
EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NE INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. CEILINGS IN TO 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A
COOL/RAINY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP
WILL TRACK S TO N MONDAY MORNING... EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ
TAF SITE. MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IP/FZRA AT KRIC...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SOME IP/FZRA
POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

     AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-
     049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS/WRS




























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
910 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES EXTENDING FM ERN NEW ENG TO THE MDATLC RGN WILL CONT
TO WEAKEN OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...WK SFC LO PRES TAKING SHAPE E OF
GA/SC CST AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING NE THROUGH THE NGT. CLDNS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SCNTRL VA FM NC. TEMPS HAVE INITIALLY
DROPPED TO OR BLO FREEZING IN SOME PLACES (INLAND). W/ BKN-OVC
CLDNS STARTING TO ARRIVE...TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A FEW DEGS F
FM FVX TO THE NC/VA BORDER. ALSO...PATCHY LGT RA STARTING TO
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO SRN NC.

PROBLEMS OF THE NGT ARE THE INCRSG CLDNS (AND HOW TEMPS RESPOND)
AND ARRIVAL OF PCPN. CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF FA WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE
LO TEMPS BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE ACRS THE NNE (WHERE CLDNS SLOWER TO
ARRIVE)...READINGS LIKELY TO DROP AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL DEGS F.

WHILE TEMPS ACRS NW PIEDMONT HAVE SETTLED BLO FREEZING...LAMP TEMP
GUID ONLY BRING TEMPS BACK TO ARND 32F AS CLDNS AND EVENTUALLY
PCPN ARRIVES LT. ONLY VERY LGT AMTS OF PCPN XPCD...BUT PSBLY JUST
ENOUGH FOR VERY LGT ICING (-ZR) ON UNTREATED/COLDER EXPOSED
SURFACES. CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL RMN IN PLACE.
ELSW...WHILE A BIT OF IP PSBL A BEGINNING OF PCPN..ESP ACRS
INTERIOR CNTRL/SRN VA-NE NC...XPCG TEMPS (IF THEY HAVE FALLEN
TO/JUST BLO FREEZING THIS EVE) WILL RISE BACK TO OR ABOVE FREEZING
BY LT TNGT...SO NO ICING PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. LO TEMPS IN THE
M/U20S ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...TO U20S TO U30S ELSW.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45
EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NE INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. CEILINGS IN TO 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A
COOL/RAINY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP
WILL TRACK S TO N MONDAY MORNING... EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ
TAF SITE. MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IP/FZRA AT KRIC...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SOME IP/FZRA
POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

     AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-
     049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS/WRS




























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220210
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
910 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES EXTENDING FM ERN NEW ENG TO THE MDATLC RGN WILL CONT
TO WEAKEN OVRNGT. MEANWHILE...WK SFC LO PRES TAKING SHAPE E OF
GA/SC CST AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING NE THROUGH THE NGT. CLDNS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD N INTO SCNTRL VA FM NC. TEMPS HAVE INITIALLY
DROPPED TO OR BLO FREEZING IN SOME PLACES (INLAND). W/ BKN-OVC
CLDNS STARTING TO ARRIVE...TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A FEW DEGS F
FM FVX TO THE NC/VA BORDER. ALSO...PATCHY LGT RA STARTING TO
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO SRN NC.

PROBLEMS OF THE NGT ARE THE INCRSG CLDNS (AND HOW TEMPS RESPOND)
AND ARRIVAL OF PCPN. CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF FA WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE
LO TEMPS BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE ACRS THE NNE (WHERE CLDNS SLOWER TO
ARRIVE)...READINGS LIKELY TO DROP AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL DEGS F.

WHILE TEMPS ACRS NW PIEDMONT HAVE SETTLED BLO FREEZING...LAMP TEMP
GUID ONLY BRING TEMPS BACK TO ARND 32F AS CLDNS AND EVENTUALLY
PCPN ARRIVES LT. ONLY VERY LGT AMTS OF PCPN XPCD...BUT PSBLY JUST
ENOUGH FOR VERY LGT ICING (-ZR) ON UNTREATED/COLDER EXPOSED
SURFACES. CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL RMN IN PLACE.
ELSW...WHILE A BIT OF IP PSBL A BEGINNING OF PCPN..ESP ACRS
INTERIOR CNTRL/SRN VA-NE NC...XPCG TEMPS (IF THEY HAVE FALLEN
TO/JUST BLO FREEZING THIS EVE) WILL RISE BACK TO OR ABOVE FREEZING
BY LT TNGT...SO NO ICING PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. LO TEMPS IN THE
M/U20S ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...TO U20S TO U30S ELSW.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45
EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NE INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. CEILINGS IN TO 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A
COOL/RAINY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP
WILL TRACK S TO N MONDAY MORNING... EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ
TAF SITE. MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IP/FZRA AT KRIC...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SOME IP/FZRA
POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

     AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-
     049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS/WRS





























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212346
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
ERN CANADA...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OFF THE COAST OF GA/SC...AND IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT SLOWLY N/E OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX
(PRIMARILY ZR) OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE 4 CLIMO FAVORED COUNTIES ACRS THE
FAR WRN PORTION OF THE CWA (LOUISA/FLUVANNA/CUMBERLAND/PRINCE
EDWARD). OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IMPACT ANYWHERE
ELSE IN THE CWA (SFC HIGH TOO WEAK/PUSHING TOO FAR EAST). THIS
WILL BE A "MINIMAL IMPACT" ADVISORY FOR THE MOST PART...AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) SHOW LIMTED SATURATION THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT (HEAVIER
PRECIP STAYING EAST WHERE IT WILL BE ALL RAIN). STILL ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR ZR AS MAIN PTYPE (RATHER THAN SLEET) AND IF THE NAM/EC
SCENARIO VERIFIES...THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHC FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN
E OF I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A
NARROW LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF
I95 AND N OF RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS
NEAR FREEZING. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45 EAST
TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY... M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NE INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. CEILINGS IN TO 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A
COOL/RAINY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP
WILL TRACK S TO N MONDAY MORNING... EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ
TAF SITE. MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IP/FZRA AT KRIC...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SOME IP/FZRA
POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

...AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-
     049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS/WRS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212346
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
ERN CANADA...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OFF THE COAST OF GA/SC...AND IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT SLOWLY N/E OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX
(PRIMARILY ZR) OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE 4 CLIMO FAVORED COUNTIES ACRS THE
FAR WRN PORTION OF THE CWA (LOUISA/FLUVANNA/CUMBERLAND/PRINCE
EDWARD). OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IMPACT ANYWHERE
ELSE IN THE CWA (SFC HIGH TOO WEAK/PUSHING TOO FAR EAST). THIS
WILL BE A "MINIMAL IMPACT" ADVISORY FOR THE MOST PART...AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) SHOW LIMTED SATURATION THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT (HEAVIER
PRECIP STAYING EAST WHERE IT WILL BE ALL RAIN). STILL ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR ZR AS MAIN PTYPE (RATHER THAN SLEET) AND IF THE NAM/EC
SCENARIO VERIFIES...THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHC FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN
E OF I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A
NARROW LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF
I95 AND N OF RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS
NEAR FREEZING. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45 EAST
TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY... M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NE INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. CEILINGS IN TO 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A
COOL/RAINY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP
WILL TRACK S TO N MONDAY MORNING... EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ
TAF SITE. MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IP/FZRA AT KRIC...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SOME IP/FZRA
POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

...AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-
     049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS/WRS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
ERN CANADA...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OFF THE COAST OF GA/SC...AND IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT SLOWLY N/E OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX
(PRIMARILY ZR) OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE 4 CLIMO FAVORED COUNTIES ACRS THE
FAR WRN PORTION OF THE CWA (LOUISA/FLUVANNA/CUMBERLAND/PRINCE
EDWARD). OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IMPACT ANYWHERE
ELSE IN THE CWA (SFC HIGH TOO WEAK/PUSHING TOO FAR EAST). THIS
WILL BE A "MINIMAL IMPACT" ADVISORY FOR THE MOST PART...AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) SHOW LIMTED SATURATION THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT (HEAVIER
PRECIP STAYING EAST WHERE IT WILL BE ALL RAIN). STILL ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR ZR AS MAIN PTYPE (RATHER THAN SLEET) AND IF THE NAM/EC
SCENARIO VERIFIES...THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHC FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN
E OF I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A
NARROW LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF
I95 AND N OF RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS
NEAR FREEZING. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45 EAST
TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY... M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD MON MORNING
THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N MON MORNING...
EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON
MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW AND A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH
THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE
NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL
MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS
MON EVENG. THE AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD
FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS
EXPECTED BY WED OVR ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE
REGION WED NGT INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST
FRNTAL INTO THU. SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE
SUBSIDING THU NGT. WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-
     049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
ERN CANADA...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OFF THE COAST OF GA/SC...AND IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT SLOWLY N/E OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX
(PRIMARILY ZR) OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE 4 CLIMO FAVORED COUNTIES ACRS THE
FAR WRN PORTION OF THE CWA (LOUISA/FLUVANNA/CUMBERLAND/PRINCE
EDWARD). OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IMPACT ANYWHERE
ELSE IN THE CWA (SFC HIGH TOO WEAK/PUSHING TOO FAR EAST). THIS
WILL BE A "MINIMAL IMPACT" ADVISORY FOR THE MOST PART...AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) SHOW LIMTED SATURATION THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT (HEAVIER
PRECIP STAYING EAST WHERE IT WILL BE ALL RAIN). STILL ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR ZR AS MAIN PTYPE (RATHER THAN SLEET) AND IF THE NAM/EC
SCENARIO VERIFIES...THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHC FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN
E OF I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A
NARROW LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF
I95 AND N OF RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS
NEAR FREEZING. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTR
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTRN AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45 EAST
TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY... M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STDYST PCPN ENDING SW-NE BY 06Z. SNDGS INDCTG ENUF MSTR FOR LGT
RAIN / DRIZZLE THRU THE OVRNITE HRS. TMPS STDY IN THE M30S NW TO M40S
SE. QPF 1/4 TO 1/2 IN.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. KEPT LOW CHC (30%) POPS THRU THE
DAY ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. BIG
TMP DIFFERENCES SEEN IN MOS DATA WHERE NAM IS SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN MODELS MAINTAIN AN ERLY SFC FLOW...WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO WITH HIGHS FROM THE M-U40S OVR
THE PIEDMONT TO M-U50S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD MON MORNING
THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N MON MORNING...
EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN E-NE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT TENDING TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AOB 10 KT BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OUT 20
NM LATE MON/MON EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM.

LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS TURN E-SE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE
RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-
     049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
ERN CANADA...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OFF THE COAST OF GA/SC...AND IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT SLOWLY N/E OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX
(PRIMARILY ZR) OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE 4 CLIMO FAVORED COUNTIES ACRS THE
FAR WRN PORTION OF THE CWA (LOUISA/FLUVANNA/CUMBERLAND/PRINCE
EDWARD). OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IMPACT ANYWHERE
ELSE IN THE CWA (SFC HIGH TOO WEAK/PUSHING TOO FAR EAST). THIS
WILL BE A "MINIMAL IMPACT" ADVISORY FOR THE MOST PART...AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) SHOW LIMTED SATURATION THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT (HEAVIER
PRECIP STAYING EAST WHERE IT WILL BE ALL RAIN). STILL ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR ZR AS MAIN PTYPE (RATHER THAN SLEET) AND IF THE NAM/EC
SCENARIO VERIFIES...THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHC FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN
E OF I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A
NARROW LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF
I95 AND N OF RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS
NEAR FREEZING. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTR
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTRN AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45 EAST
TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY... M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STDYST PCPN ENDING SW-NE BY 06Z. SNDGS INDCTG ENUF MSTR FOR LGT
RAIN / DRIZZLE THRU THE OVRNITE HRS. TMPS STDY IN THE M30S NW TO M40S
SE. QPF 1/4 TO 1/2 IN.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. KEPT LOW CHC (30%) POPS THRU THE
DAY ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. BIG
TMP DIFFERENCES SEEN IN MOS DATA WHERE NAM IS SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN MODELS MAINTAIN AN ERLY SFC FLOW...WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO WITH HIGHS FROM THE M-U40S OVR
THE PIEDMONT TO M-U50S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD MON MORNING
THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N MON MORNING...
EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN E-NE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT TENDING TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AOB 10 KT BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OUT 20
NM LATE MON/MON EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM.

LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS TURN E-SE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE
RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-
     049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211910
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
210 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1029 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
DE/MD/ERN VA...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A POSITION OFF THE SC COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA (EARLIER CLEAR SKIES ACRS NE NC HAVE SINCE
CLOUDED OVER). LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND 12Z SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THINK SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE AFTN.
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AVG AROUND 40 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE UPPER
40S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKEN S-N LATE EVE AND EARLY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVG NE FROM GOM. TRICKY PART OF FCST
WILL BE HOW FAST PCPN OVERSPREADS THE FA AND WHAT FORM P-TYPE WILL
BE OVR THE PIEDMONT AS IN-SITU WEDGE DVLPS. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN E OF
I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A NARROW
LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF I95 AND N OF
RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS NEAR FREEZING.
MAY EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OVER CNTYS NW OF RIC...BUT NOT
SGNFCNT ENUF TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL THRU
12Z...SO ABT THE ONLY ACTION NEEDED AT THIS POINT IS A MENTION IN
HWO. RAIN SRN CNTYS. MIN TMPS MAY LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH
STDY READINGS AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO ERN CANADA.
THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32 DEGREES THRU 15Z
OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION
OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTR 12Z EXCEPT FOR LOUISA/FLUVANNA/
WRN GOOCHLAND/NRN CUMBERLAND CNTYS WHERE A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET/FZ
RAIN SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. THESE
ARE THE AREAS WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MON MORNING FOR MINIMAL
IMPACT AS TMPS HOVER ARND 32 F. AREAS FROM CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN
NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO MD MAY START OFF AS A
RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES
WIDESPREAD MON AFTRN AS THE BULK OF LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE
FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S
PIEDMONT...40-45 EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...
M40S-L50S SERN VA/NC.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STDYST PCPN ENDING SW-NE BY 06Z. SNDGS INDCTG ENUF MSTR FOR LGT
RAIN / DRIZZLE THRU THE OVRNITE HRS. TMPS STDY IN THE M30S NW TO M40S
SE. QPF 1/4 TO 1/2 IN.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. KEPT LOW CHC (30%) POPS THRU THE
DAY ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. BIG
TMP DIFFERENCES SEEN IN MOS DATA WHERE NAM IS SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN MODELS MAINTAIN AN ERLY SFC FLOW...WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO WITH HIGHS FROM THE M-U40S OVR
THE PIEDMONT TO M-U50S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD MON MORNING
THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N MON MORNING...
EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN E-NE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT TENDING TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AOB 10 KT BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OUT 20
NM LATE MON/MON EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM.

LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS TURN E-SE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE
RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211910
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
210 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1029 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
DE/MD/ERN VA...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A POSITION OFF THE SC COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA (EARLIER CLEAR SKIES ACRS NE NC HAVE SINCE
CLOUDED OVER). LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND 12Z SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THINK SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE AFTN.
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AVG AROUND 40 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE UPPER
40S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKEN S-N LATE EVE AND EARLY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVG NE FROM GOM. TRICKY PART OF FCST
WILL BE HOW FAST PCPN OVERSPREADS THE FA AND WHAT FORM P-TYPE WILL
BE OVR THE PIEDMONT AS IN-SITU WEDGE DVLPS. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN E OF
I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A NARROW
LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF I95 AND N OF
RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS NEAR FREEZING.
MAY EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OVER CNTYS NW OF RIC...BUT NOT
SGNFCNT ENUF TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL THRU
12Z...SO ABT THE ONLY ACTION NEEDED AT THIS POINT IS A MENTION IN
HWO. RAIN SRN CNTYS. MIN TMPS MAY LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH
STDY READINGS AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO ERN CANADA.
THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32 DEGREES THRU 15Z
OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION
OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTR 12Z EXCEPT FOR LOUISA/FLUVANNA/
WRN GOOCHLAND/NRN CUMBERLAND CNTYS WHERE A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET/FZ
RAIN SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. THESE
ARE THE AREAS WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MON MORNING FOR MINIMAL
IMPACT AS TMPS HOVER ARND 32 F. AREAS FROM CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN
NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO MD MAY START OFF AS A
RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES
WIDESPREAD MON AFTRN AS THE BULK OF LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE
FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S
PIEDMONT...40-45 EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...
M40S-L50S SERN VA/NC.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STDYST PCPN ENDING SW-NE BY 06Z. SNDGS INDCTG ENUF MSTR FOR LGT
RAIN / DRIZZLE THRU THE OVRNITE HRS. TMPS STDY IN THE M30S NW TO M40S
SE. QPF 1/4 TO 1/2 IN.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. KEPT LOW CHC (30%) POPS THRU THE
DAY ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. BIG
TMP DIFFERENCES SEEN IN MOS DATA WHERE NAM IS SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN MODELS MAINTAIN AN ERLY SFC FLOW...WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO WITH HIGHS FROM THE M-U40S OVR
THE PIEDMONT TO M-U50S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD MON MORNING
THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N MON MORNING...
EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN E-NE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT TENDING TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AOB 10 KT BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OUT 20
NM LATE MON/MON EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM.

LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS TURN E-SE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE
RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1029 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
DE/MD/ERN VA...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A POSITION OFF THE SC COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA (EARLIER CLEAR SKIES ACRS NE NC HAVE SINCE
CLOUDED OVER). LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND 12Z SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THINK SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE AFTN.
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AVG AROUND 40 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE UPPER
40S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKEN S-N LATE EVE AND EARLY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVG NE FROM GOM. TRICKY PART OF FCST
WILL BE HOW FAST PCPN OVERSPREADS THE FA AND WHAT FORM P-TYPE WILL
BE OVR THE PIEDMONT AS IN-SITU WEDGE DVLPS. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN E OF
I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A NARROW
LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF I95 AND N OF
RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS NEAR FREEZING.
MAY EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OVER CNTYS NW OF RIC...BUT NOT
SGNFCNT ENUF TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL THRU
12Z...SO ABT THE ONLY ACTION NEEDED AT THIS POINT IS A MENTION IN
HWO. RAIN SRN CNTYS. MIN TMPS MAY LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH
STDY READINGS AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO ERN CANADA.
THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32 DEGREES THRU 15Z
OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION
OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTR 12Z EXCEPT FOR LOUISA/FLUVANNA/
WRN GOOCHLAND/NRN CUMBERLAND CNTYS WHERE A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET/FZ
RAIN SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. THESE
ARE THE AREAS WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MON MORNING FOR MINIMAL
IMPACT AS TMPS HOVER ARND 32 F. AREAS FROM CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN
NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO MD MAY START OFF AS A
RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES
WIDESPREAD MON AFTRN AS THE BULK OF LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE
FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S
PIEDMONT...40-45 EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...
M40S-L50S SERN VA/NC.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STDYST PCPN ENDING SW-NE BY 06Z. SNDGS INDCTG ENUF MSTR FOR LGT
RAIN / DRIZZLE THRU THE OVRNITE HRS. TMPS STDY IN THE M30S NW TO M40S
SE. QPF 1/4 TO 1/2 IN.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. KEPT LOW CHC (30%) POPS THRU THE
DAY ALTHROUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. BIG
TMP DIFFERENCES SEEN IN MOS DATA WHERE NAM IS SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN MODELS MAINTAIN AN ERLY SFC FLOW...WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO WITH HIGHS FROM THE M-U40S OVR
THE PIEDMONT TO M-U50S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 7K FT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NEXT BATCH OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY MON MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN E-NE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT TENDING TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AOB 10 KT BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OUT 20
NM LATE MON/MON EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM.

LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS TURN E-SE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE
RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1029 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
DE/MD/ERN VA...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A POSITION OFF THE SC COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA (EARLIER CLEAR SKIES ACRS NE NC HAVE SINCE
CLOUDED OVER). LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND 12Z SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THINK SKIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLOUDY
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE AFTN.
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE CLOUD
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AVG AROUND 40 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE UPPER
40S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKEN S-N LATE EVE AND EARLY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES MOVG NE FROM GOM. TRICKY PART OF FCST
WILL BE HOW FAST PCPN OVERSPREADS THE FA AND WHAT FORM P-TYPE WILL
BE OVR THE PIEDMONT AS IN-SITU WEDGE DVLPS. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN E OF
I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A NARROW
LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF I95 AND N OF
RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS NEAR FREEZING.
MAY EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OVER CNTYS NW OF RIC...BUT NOT
SGNFCNT ENUF TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL THRU
12Z...SO ABT THE ONLY ACTION NEEDED AT THIS POINT IS A MENTION IN
HWO. RAIN SRN CNTYS. MIN TMPS MAY LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH
STDY READINGS AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO ERN CANADA.
THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32 DEGREES THRU 15Z
OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION
OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTR 12Z EXCEPT FOR LOUISA/FLUVANNA/
WRN GOOCHLAND/NRN CUMBERLAND CNTYS WHERE A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET/FZ
RAIN SHUD CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. THESE
ARE THE AREAS WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MON MORNING FOR MINIMAL
IMPACT AS TMPS HOVER ARND 32 F. AREAS FROM CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN
NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO MD MAY START OFF AS A
RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES
WIDESPREAD MON AFTRN AS THE BULK OF LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE
FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S
PIEDMONT...40-45 EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...
M40S-L50S SERN VA/NC.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STDYST PCPN ENDING SW-NE BY 06Z. SNDGS INDCTG ENUF MSTR FOR LGT
RAIN / DRIZZLE THRU THE OVRNITE HRS. TMPS STDY IN THE M30S NW TO M40S
SE. QPF 1/4 TO 1/2 IN.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. KEPT LOW CHC (30%) POPS THRU THE
DAY ALTHROUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. BIG
TMP DIFFERENCES SEEN IN MOS DATA WHERE NAM IS SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN MODELS MAINTAIN AN ERLY SFC FLOW...WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO WITH HIGHS FROM THE M-U40S OVR
THE PIEDMONT TO M-U50S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 7K FT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NEXT BATCH OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY MON MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN E-NE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT TENDING TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AOB 10 KT BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OUT 20
NM LATE MON/MON EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM.

LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS TURN E-SE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE
RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
627 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. PLNTY OF MID/HIGH LVL MSTR SEEN ON TSCTNS FOR
THE DAY TO START OUT MSTLY CLDY TO CLDY. CLOUDS THIN OUT A BIT THIS
AFTRN...SPCLLY NRN HALF OF FA. ANTHR BLO NRML DAY AS CLOUDS HOLD TMPS
IN THE L-M40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKEN S-N LATE EVE AND ERLY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRS MOVG NE FROM GOM. TRICKY PART OF FCST
WILL BE HOW FAST PCPN OVERSPREADS THE FA AND WHAT FORM P-TYPE WILL
BE OVR THE PIEDMONT AS IN-SITU WEDGE DVLPS. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN E OF
I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A NARROW
LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF I95 AND N OF
RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS NEAR FREEZING.
MAY EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OVER CNTYS NW OF RIC...BUT NOT
SGNFCNT ENUF TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL THRU
12Z...SO ABT THE ONLY ACTION NEEDED AT THIS POINT IS A MENTION IN
HWO. RAIN SRN CNTYS. MIN TMPS MAY LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH
STDY READINGS AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN MON MORNING AS HIGH PRS MOVES INTO ERN CANADA.
THE NRMLLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32 DEGREES THRU 15Z
OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERPSREADS THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION
OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTR 12Z XPCT FOR LOUISA/FLUVANNA/
WRN GOOCHLAND/NRN CUMBERLAND CNTYS WHERE A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET/FZ
RAIN SHUD CONT THRU 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32. THESE ARE THE AREAS
WHERE AN ADVSRY MAY BE NEEDED MON MORNING FOR MINIMAL IMPACT AS TMPS
HOVER ARND 32. AREAS FROM CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST
TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN
QUICKLY GO OVR TO RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTRN AS THE
BULK OF LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT...40-45 EAST TOWARD THE ERN
SHORE & SERN CHES BAY... M40S-L50S SERN VA/NC.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STDYST PCPN ENDING SW-NE BY 06Z. SNDGS INDCTG ENUF MSTR FOR LGT
RAIN / DRIZZLE THRU THE OVRNITE HRS. TMPS STDY IN THE M30S NW TO M40S
SE. QPF 1/4 TO 1/2 IN.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. KEPT LOW CHC (30%) POPS THRU THE
DAY ALTHROUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. BIG
TMP DIFFERENCES SEEN IN MOS DATA WHERE NAM IS SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN MODELS MAINTAIN AN ERLY SFC FLOW...WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO WITH HIGHS FROM THE M-U40S OVR
THE PIEDMONT TO M-U50S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 7K FT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NEXT BATCH OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY MON MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN E-NE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT TENDING TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AOB 10 KT BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OUT 20
NM LATE MON/MON EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM.

LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS TURN E-SE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE
RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
627 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. PLNTY OF MID/HIGH LVL MSTR SEEN ON TSCTNS FOR
THE DAY TO START OUT MSTLY CLDY TO CLDY. CLOUDS THIN OUT A BIT THIS
AFTRN...SPCLLY NRN HALF OF FA. ANTHR BLO NRML DAY AS CLOUDS HOLD TMPS
IN THE L-M40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKEN S-N LATE EVE AND ERLY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRS MOVG NE FROM GOM. TRICKY PART OF FCST
WILL BE HOW FAST PCPN OVERSPREADS THE FA AND WHAT FORM P-TYPE WILL
BE OVR THE PIEDMONT AS IN-SITU WEDGE DVLPS. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN E OF
I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A NARROW
LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF I95 AND N OF
RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS NEAR FREEZING.
MAY EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OVER CNTYS NW OF RIC...BUT NOT
SGNFCNT ENUF TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL THRU
12Z...SO ABT THE ONLY ACTION NEEDED AT THIS POINT IS A MENTION IN
HWO. RAIN SRN CNTYS. MIN TMPS MAY LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH
STDY READINGS AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN MON MORNING AS HIGH PRS MOVES INTO ERN CANADA.
THE NRMLLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32 DEGREES THRU 15Z
OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERPSREADS THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION
OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTR 12Z XPCT FOR LOUISA/FLUVANNA/
WRN GOOCHLAND/NRN CUMBERLAND CNTYS WHERE A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET/FZ
RAIN SHUD CONT THRU 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32. THESE ARE THE AREAS
WHERE AN ADVSRY MAY BE NEEDED MON MORNING FOR MINIMAL IMPACT AS TMPS
HOVER ARND 32. AREAS FROM CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST
TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN
QUICKLY GO OVR TO RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTRN AS THE
BULK OF LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT...40-45 EAST TOWARD THE ERN
SHORE & SERN CHES BAY... M40S-L50S SERN VA/NC.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STDYST PCPN ENDING SW-NE BY 06Z. SNDGS INDCTG ENUF MSTR FOR LGT
RAIN / DRIZZLE THRU THE OVRNITE HRS. TMPS STDY IN THE M30S NW TO M40S
SE. QPF 1/4 TO 1/2 IN.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. KEPT LOW CHC (30%) POPS THRU THE
DAY ALTHROUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. BIG
TMP DIFFERENCES SEEN IN MOS DATA WHERE NAM IS SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN MODELS MAINTAIN AN ERLY SFC FLOW...WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO WITH HIGHS FROM THE M-U40S OVR
THE PIEDMONT TO M-U50S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 7K FT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. NEXT BATCH OF PCPN WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY MON MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN E-NE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT TENDING TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AOB 10 KT BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OUT 20
NM LATE MON/MON EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM.

LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS TURN E-SE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE
RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210846
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. PLNTY OF MID/HIGH LVL MSTR SEEN ON TSCTNS FOR
THE DAY TO START OUT MSTLY CLDY TO CLDY. CLOUDS THIN OUT A BIT THIS
AFTRN...SPCLLY NRN HALF OF FA. ANTHR BLO NRML DAY AS CLOUDS HOLD TMPS
IN THE L-M40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKEN S-N LATE EVE AND ERLY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRS MOVG NE FROM GOM. TRICKY PART OF FCST
WILL BE HOW FAST PCPN OVERSPREADS THE FA AND WHAT FORM P-TYPE WILL
BE OVR THE PIEDMONT AS IN-SITU WEDGE DVLPS. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN E OF
I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A NARROW
LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF I95 AND N OF
RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS NEAR FREEZING.
MAY EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OVER CNTYS NW OF RIC...BUT NOT
SGNFCNT ENUF TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL THRU
12Z...SO ABT THE ONLY ACTION NEEDED AT THIS POINT IS A MENTION IN
HWO. RAIN SRN CNTYS. MIN TMPS MAY LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH
STDY READINGS AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN MON MORNING AS HIGH PRS MOVES INTO ERN CANADA.
THE NRMLLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32 DEGREES THRU 15Z
OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERPSREADS THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION
OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTR 12Z XPCT FOR LOUISA/FLUVANNA/
WRN GOOCHLAND/NRN CUMBERLAND CNTYS WHERE A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET/FZ
RAIN SHUD CONT THRU 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32. THESE ARE THE AREAS
WHERE AN ADVSRY MAY BE NEEDED MON MORNING FOR MINIMAL IMPACT AS TMPS
HOVER ARND 32. AREAS FROM CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST
TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN
QUICKLY GO OVR TO RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTRN AS THE
BULK OF LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT...40-45 EAST TOWARD THE ERN
SHORE & SERN CHES BAY... M40S-L50S SERN VA/NC.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STDYST PCPN ENDING SW-NE BY 06Z. SNDGS INDCTG ENUF MSTR FOR LGT
RAIN / DRIZZLE THRU THE OVRNITE HRS. TMPS STDY IN THE M30S NW TO M40S
SE. QPF 1/4 TO 1/2 IN.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. KEPT LOW CHC (30%) POPS THRU THE
DAY ALTHROUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. BIG
TMP DIFFERENCES SEEN IN MOS DATA WHERE NAM IS SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN MODELS MAINTAIN AN ERLY SFC FLOW...WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO WITH HIGHS FROM THE M-U40S OVR
THE PIEDMONT TO M-U50S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 8-10K FT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN E-NE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT TENDING TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AOB 10 KT BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OUT 20
NM LATE MON/MON EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM.

LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS TURN E-SE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE
RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210846
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SFC TROF LCTD ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. PLNTY OF MID/HIGH LVL MSTR SEEN ON TSCTNS FOR
THE DAY TO START OUT MSTLY CLDY TO CLDY. CLOUDS THIN OUT A BIT THIS
AFTRN...SPCLLY NRN HALF OF FA. ANTHR BLO NRML DAY AS CLOUDS HOLD TMPS
IN THE L-M40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKEN S-N LATE EVE AND ERLY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRS MOVG NE FROM GOM. TRICKY PART OF FCST
WILL BE HOW FAST PCPN OVERSPREADS THE FA AND WHAT FORM P-TYPE WILL
BE OVR THE PIEDMONT AS IN-SITU WEDGE DVLPS. DESPITE SOME TIMING
DIFFFERENCES LTST MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT THAT PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
AREA S-N BTWN 06Z-12Z. LL THICKNESSES WARM ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN E OF
I95 BUT REMAIN MARGINAL W OF I95. BUFKIT SNDGS CONT TO SHOW A NARROW
LAYER OF BLO FREEZING SFC TMPS THRU 15Z OR SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THNK P-TYPE WILL START OFF AS A FEW HRS OF SLEET W OF I95 AND N OF
RT 460 LATE TONIGHT DUE TO EVAP COOLING WITH TMPS NEAR FREEZING.
MAY EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES OVER CNTYS NW OF RIC...BUT NOT
SGNFCNT ENUF TO MENTION IN FCST ATTM. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL THRU
12Z...SO ABT THE ONLY ACTION NEEDED AT THIS POINT IS A MENTION IN
HWO. RAIN SRN CNTYS. MIN TMPS MAY LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH
STDY READINGS AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-M30S.

WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN MON MORNING AS HIGH PRS MOVES INTO ERN CANADA.
THE NRMLLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32 DEGREES THRU 15Z
OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERPSREADS THE ENTIRE FA. EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION
OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTR 12Z XPCT FOR LOUISA/FLUVANNA/
WRN GOOCHLAND/NRN CUMBERLAND CNTYS WHERE A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET/FZ
RAIN SHUD CONT THRU 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32. THESE ARE THE AREAS
WHERE AN ADVSRY MAY BE NEEDED MON MORNING FOR MINIMAL IMPACT AS TMPS
HOVER ARND 32. AREAS FROM CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST
TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN
QUICKLY GO OVR TO RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTRN AS THE
BULK OF LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT...40-45 EAST TOWARD THE ERN
SHORE & SERN CHES BAY... M40S-L50S SERN VA/NC.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH STDYST PCPN ENDING SW-NE BY 06Z. SNDGS INDCTG ENUF MSTR FOR LGT
RAIN / DRIZZLE THRU THE OVRNITE HRS. TMPS STDY IN THE M30S NW TO M40S
SE. QPF 1/4 TO 1/2 IN.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. KEPT LOW CHC (30%) POPS THRU THE
DAY ALTHROUGH SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. BIG
TMP DIFFERENCES SEEN IN MOS DATA WHERE NAM IS SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN MODELS MAINTAIN AN ERLY SFC FLOW...WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND GO WITH HIGHS FROM THE M-U40S OVR
THE PIEDMONT TO M-U50S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 8-10K FT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS
AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES
NORTH. THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE NC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN E-NE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT TENDING TO
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AOB 10 KT BY EARLY TUES MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OUT 20
NM LATE MON/MON EVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD SCA ATTM.

LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. WINDS TURN E-SE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE
RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATE THU.
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210545
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1245 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY 6-9KFT CONTG OVR THE FA ATTM...AND
W/O ANY DRYING NOTED ON THE SATELLITE...XPCD TO RMN OVR THE FA
THROUGH THE NGT. NUDGED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS F MOST PLACES DUE TO
THE CLDNS. COLDEST SPOTS RIGHT NOW ON THE ERN SHORE. MOST LO TEMPS
FM THE M/U20S TO L30S.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
NE FLOW OVER THE SE COASTAL ZONES...SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 40S NE TO AROUND 50 F IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
FROM FLORIDA TO THE CARIBBEAN. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO
TURN MORE SW AND THIS WILL HELP STEER LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON/MON
NIGHT. POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO OUR N...SHIFTING EAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/MON IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LOCKING COLD AIR
OVER THE AKQ CWA. STILL SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PART
OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHC OF A FEW HRS WORTH OF
OVERRUNNING FROZEN PRECIP OVER CLIMO FAVORED PIEDMONT ZONES NW OF
RICHMOND (WITH LITTLE CHC FOR ANYTHING BUT ALL RAIN OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA). LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) ARE MARGINAL BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW LAYER OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT
THE SFC FROM ABOUT 09-15Z/MON AT KCHO (AND LIKELY AT KLKU). STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST PRECIP ARRIVES BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL GO
WITH A CHC FOR SLEET OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
09-12Z...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT
12-15Z/MON (ALTHOUGH BECOMING CONFINED TO THE FAR NW BY THIS
POINT). IN ANY EVENT...THIS LOOKS LIGHT AS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LIKELY ARRIVES AFTER A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. ALSO...NOT
ANTICIPATING TEMPS IN MID 20S...GENLY CLOSER TO 30-32 F...SO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGHS MON ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN
CAD SETUP. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON
AFTN...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ONLY AVG 0.25-0.50". LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FAR SE TO THE UPPER 40S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 8-10K FT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET/BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH 5-10KT WITH
WAVES/SEAS AVERAGING 1-2FT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
STALLED OFF THE SE COAST GETS ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING NE OUT OF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST OFF THE SE
COAST TONIGHT (RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE CURRENT SE
COAST LOW). THE NEWLY FORMED SE COAST LOW SLOWLY MOVES UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MON AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT...WASHING
OUT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD
FRONT TWD THE AREA. WINDS TURN TO THE NE SUN NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20KT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MON. LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY MON AFTN AND PERSIST OVER
SRN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING...AND OVER NRN WATERS THROUGH
LATE MON EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW GETS WASHED OUT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AS A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS A STRONG JET STREAK (90-150KT) ALSO
NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 15-25KT IN THE SRN WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE
NRN WATERS BY THE AFTN WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAMES. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE SLY WINDS
PRIOR TO SEEING THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM
2-4FT TUE NIGHT TO 4-5FT BY WED MORNING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4FT
ON CHES BAY ON WED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
WED EVENING AND SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. AM NOT ANTICIPATING GALE FORCE GUSTS UNLESS THEY
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WED AFTN/EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-9FT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE. S-SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WED NIGHT BECOME WLY ON
THU...REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL BRING A RETURN TO BREEZY NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210545
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1245 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY 6-9KFT CONTG OVR THE FA ATTM...AND
W/O ANY DRYING NOTED ON THE SATELLITE...XPCD TO RMN OVR THE FA
THROUGH THE NGT. NUDGED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS F MOST PLACES DUE TO
THE CLDNS. COLDEST SPOTS RIGHT NOW ON THE ERN SHORE. MOST LO TEMPS
FM THE M/U20S TO L30S.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
NE FLOW OVER THE SE COASTAL ZONES...SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 40S NE TO AROUND 50 F IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
FROM FLORIDA TO THE CARIBBEAN. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO
TURN MORE SW AND THIS WILL HELP STEER LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON/MON
NIGHT. POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO OUR N...SHIFTING EAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/MON IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LOCKING COLD AIR
OVER THE AKQ CWA. STILL SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PART
OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHC OF A FEW HRS WORTH OF
OVERRUNNING FROZEN PRECIP OVER CLIMO FAVORED PIEDMONT ZONES NW OF
RICHMOND (WITH LITTLE CHC FOR ANYTHING BUT ALL RAIN OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA). LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) ARE MARGINAL BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW LAYER OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT
THE SFC FROM ABOUT 09-15Z/MON AT KCHO (AND LIKELY AT KLKU). STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST PRECIP ARRIVES BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL GO
WITH A CHC FOR SLEET OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
09-12Z...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT
12-15Z/MON (ALTHOUGH BECOMING CONFINED TO THE FAR NW BY THIS
POINT). IN ANY EVENT...THIS LOOKS LIGHT AS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LIKELY ARRIVES AFTER A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. ALSO...NOT
ANTICIPATING TEMPS IN MID 20S...GENLY CLOSER TO 30-32 F...SO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGHS MON ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN
CAD SETUP. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON
AFTN...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ONLY AVG 0.25-0.50". LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FAR SE TO THE UPPER 40S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 8-10K FT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET/BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH 5-10KT WITH
WAVES/SEAS AVERAGING 1-2FT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
STALLED OFF THE SE COAST GETS ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING NE OUT OF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST OFF THE SE
COAST TONIGHT (RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE CURRENT SE
COAST LOW). THE NEWLY FORMED SE COAST LOW SLOWLY MOVES UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MON AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT...WASHING
OUT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD
FRONT TWD THE AREA. WINDS TURN TO THE NE SUN NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20KT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MON. LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY MON AFTN AND PERSIST OVER
SRN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING...AND OVER NRN WATERS THROUGH
LATE MON EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW GETS WASHED OUT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AS A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS A STRONG JET STREAK (90-150KT) ALSO
NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 15-25KT IN THE SRN WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE
NRN WATERS BY THE AFTN WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAMES. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE SLY WINDS
PRIOR TO SEEING THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM
2-4FT TUE NIGHT TO 4-5FT BY WED MORNING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4FT
ON CHES BAY ON WED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
WED EVENING AND SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. AM NOT ANTICIPATING GALE FORCE GUSTS UNLESS THEY
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WED AFTN/EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-9FT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE. S-SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WED NIGHT BECOME WLY ON
THU...REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL BRING A RETURN TO BREEZY NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210251
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY 6-9KFT CONTG OVR THE FA ATTM...AND
W/O ANY DRYING NOTED ON THE SATELLITE...XPCD TO RMN OVR THE FA
THROUGH THE NGT. NUDGED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS F MOST PLACES DUE TO
THE CLDNS. COLDEST SPOTS RIGHT NOW ON THE ERN SHORE. MOST LO TEMPS
FM THE M/U20S TO L30S.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
NE FLOW OVER THE SE COASTAL ZONES...SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 40S NE TO AROUND 50 F IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
FROM FLORIDA TO THE CARIBBEAN. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO
TURN MORE SW AND THIS WILL HELP STEER LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON/MON
NIGHT. POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO OUR N...SHIFTING EAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/MON IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LOCKING COLD AIR
OVER THE AKQ CWA. STILL SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PART
OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHC OF A FEW HRS WORTH OF
OVERRUNNING FROZEN PRECIP OVER CLIMO FAVORED PIEDMONT ZONES NW OF
RICHMOND (WITH LITTLE CHC FOR ANYTHING BUT ALL RAIN OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA). LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) ARE MARGINAL BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW LAYER OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT
THE SFC FROM ABOUT 09-15Z/MON AT KCHO (AND LIKELY AT KLKU). STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST PRECIP ARRIVES BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL GO
WITH A CHC FOR SLEET OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
09-12Z...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT
12-15Z/MON (ALTHOUGH BECOMING CONFINED TO THE FAR NW BY THIS
POINT). IN ANY EVENT...THIS LOOKS LIGHT AS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LIKELY ARRIVES AFTER A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. ALSO...NOT
ANTICIPATING TEMPS IN MID 20S...GENLY CLOSER TO 30-32 F...SO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGHS MON ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN
CAD SETUP. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON
AFTN...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ONLY AVG 0.25-0.50". LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FAR SE TO THE UPPER 40S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. BKN CLOUDS WERE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED DRY AIR ABV 10K FT BUT
METARS HAVE BASES JUST BELOW THAT LEVEL. A THIN CLOUD DECK OF AROUND
8-10K FT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING. SOME CLOUDS AT 5K
FT WERE REPORTED AT ECG. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET/BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH 5-10KT WITH
WAVES/SEAS AVERAGING 1-2FT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
STALLED OFF THE SE COAST GETS ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING NE OUT OF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST OFF THE SE
COAST TONIGHT (RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE CURRENT SE
COAST LOW). THE NEWLY FORMED SE COAST LOW SLOWLY MOVES UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MON AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT...WASHING
OUT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD
FRONT TWD THE AREA. WINDS TURN TO THE NE SUN NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20KT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MON. LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY MON AFTN AND PERSIST OVER
SRN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING...AND OVER NRN WATERS THROUGH
LATE MON EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW GETS WASHED OUT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AS A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS A STRONG JET STREAK (90-150KT) ALSO
NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 15-25KT IN THE SRN WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE
NRN WATERS BY THE AFTN WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAMES. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE SLY WINDS
PRIOR TO SEEING THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM
2-4FT TUE NIGHT TO 4-5FT BY WED MORNING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4FT
ON CHES BAY ON WED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
WED EVENING AND SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. AM NOT ANTICIPATING GALE FORCE GUSTS UNLESS THEY
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WED AFTN/EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-9FT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE. S-SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WED NIGHT BECOME WLY ON
THU...REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL BRING A RETURN TO BREEZY NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210251
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CIGS MNLY 6-9KFT CONTG OVR THE FA ATTM...AND
W/O ANY DRYING NOTED ON THE SATELLITE...XPCD TO RMN OVR THE FA
THROUGH THE NGT. NUDGED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS F MOST PLACES DUE TO
THE CLDNS. COLDEST SPOTS RIGHT NOW ON THE ERN SHORE. MOST LO TEMPS
FM THE M/U20S TO L30S.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
NE FLOW OVER THE SE COASTAL ZONES...SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 40S NE TO AROUND 50 F IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
FROM FLORIDA TO THE CARIBBEAN. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO
TURN MORE SW AND THIS WILL HELP STEER LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON/MON
NIGHT. POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO OUR N...SHIFTING EAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/MON IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LOCKING COLD AIR
OVER THE AKQ CWA. STILL SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PART
OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHC OF A FEW HRS WORTH OF
OVERRUNNING FROZEN PRECIP OVER CLIMO FAVORED PIEDMONT ZONES NW OF
RICHMOND (WITH LITTLE CHC FOR ANYTHING BUT ALL RAIN OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA). LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) ARE MARGINAL BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW LAYER OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT
THE SFC FROM ABOUT 09-15Z/MON AT KCHO (AND LIKELY AT KLKU). STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST PRECIP ARRIVES BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL GO
WITH A CHC FOR SLEET OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
09-12Z...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT
12-15Z/MON (ALTHOUGH BECOMING CONFINED TO THE FAR NW BY THIS
POINT). IN ANY EVENT...THIS LOOKS LIGHT AS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LIKELY ARRIVES AFTER A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. ALSO...NOT
ANTICIPATING TEMPS IN MID 20S...GENLY CLOSER TO 30-32 F...SO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGHS MON ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN
CAD SETUP. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON
AFTN...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ONLY AVG 0.25-0.50". LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FAR SE TO THE UPPER 40S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. BKN CLOUDS WERE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED DRY AIR ABV 10K FT BUT
METARS HAVE BASES JUST BELOW THAT LEVEL. A THIN CLOUD DECK OF AROUND
8-10K FT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING. SOME CLOUDS AT 5K
FT WERE REPORTED AT ECG. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET/BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH 5-10KT WITH
WAVES/SEAS AVERAGING 1-2FT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
STALLED OFF THE SE COAST GETS ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING NE OUT OF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST OFF THE SE
COAST TONIGHT (RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE CURRENT SE
COAST LOW). THE NEWLY FORMED SE COAST LOW SLOWLY MOVES UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MON AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT...WASHING
OUT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD
FRONT TWD THE AREA. WINDS TURN TO THE NE SUN NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20KT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MON. LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY MON AFTN AND PERSIST OVER
SRN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING...AND OVER NRN WATERS THROUGH
LATE MON EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW GETS WASHED OUT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AS A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS A STRONG JET STREAK (90-150KT) ALSO
NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 15-25KT IN THE SRN WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE
NRN WATERS BY THE AFTN WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAMES. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE SLY WINDS
PRIOR TO SEEING THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM
2-4FT TUE NIGHT TO 4-5FT BY WED MORNING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4FT
ON CHES BAY ON WED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
WED EVENING AND SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. AM NOT ANTICIPATING GALE FORCE GUSTS UNLESS THEY
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WED AFTN/EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-9FT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE. S-SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WED NIGHT BECOME WLY ON
THU...REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL BRING A RETURN TO BREEZY NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
705 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC. SFC LOW PRESSURE
SLIDING INTO THE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FL. DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION
ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL THIS AFTN...WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP NOW BECOMING CONFINED TO NE NC AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS IN THE FAR SE
ZONES...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO NOT CONFIDENT THAT SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT (WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY). LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TO THE LOWER 30S OVER SE COASTAL SECTIONS. IF SKIES
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT MAY SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
NE FLOW OVER THE SE COASTAL ZONES...SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 40S NE TO AROUND 50 F IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
FROM FLORIDA TO THE CARIBBEAN. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO
TURN MORE SW AND THIS WILL HELP STEER LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON/MON
NIGHT. POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO OUR N...SHIFTING EAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/MON IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LOCKING COLD AIR
OVER THE AKQ CWA. STILL SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PART
OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHC OF A FEW HRS WORTH OF
OVERRUNNING FROZEN PRECIP OVER CLIMO FAVORED PIEDMONT ZONES NW OF
RICHMOND (WITH LITTLE CHC FOR ANYTHING BUT ALL RAIN OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA). LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) ARE MARGINAL BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW LAYER OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT
THE SFC FROM ABOUT 09-15Z/MON AT KCHO (AND LIKELY AT KLKU). STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST PRECIP ARRIVES BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL GO
WITH A CHC FOR SLEET OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
09-12Z...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT
12-15Z/MON (ALTHOUGH BECOMING CONFINED TO THE FAR NW BY THIS
POINT). IN ANY EVENT...THIS LOOKS LIGHT AS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LIKELY ARRIVES AFTER A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. ALSO...NOT
ANTICIPATING TEMPS IN MID 20S...GENLY CLOSER TO 30-32 F...SO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGHS MON ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN
CAD SETUP. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON
AFTN...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ONLY AVG 0.25-0.50". LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FAR SE TO THE UPPER 40S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED DURING THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. BKN CLOUDS WERE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED DRY AIR ABV 10K FT BUT
METARS HAVE BASES JUST BELOW THAT LEVEL. A THIN CLOUD DECK OF AROUND
8-10K FT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING. SOME CLOUDS AT 5K
FT WERE REPORTED AT ECG. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET/BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH 5-10KT WITH
WAVES/SEAS AVERAGING 1-2FT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
STALLED OFF THE SE COAST GETS ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING NE OUT OF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST OFF THE SE
COAST TONIGHT (RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE CURRENT SE
COAST LOW). THE NEWLY FORMED SE COAST LOW SLOWLY MOVES UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MON AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT...WASHING
OUT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD
FRONT TWD THE AREA. WINDS TURN TO THE NE SUN NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20KT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MON. LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY MON AFTN AND PERSIST OVER
SRN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING...AND OVER NRN WATERS THROUGH
LATE MON EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW GETS WASHED OUT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AS A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS A STRONG JET STREAK (90-150KT) ALSO
NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 15-25KT IN THE SRN WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE
NRN WATERS BY THE AFTN WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAMES. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE SLY WINDS
PRIOR TO SEEING THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM
2-4FT TUE NIGHT TO 4-5FT BY WED MORNING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4FT
ON CHES BAY ON WED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
WED EVENING AND SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. AM NOT ANTICIPATING GALE FORCE GUSTS UNLESS THEY
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WED AFTN/EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-9FT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE. S-SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WED NIGHT BECOME WLY ON
THU...REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL BRING A RETURN TO BREEZY NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202202
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
502 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC. SFC LOW PRESSURE
SLIDING INTO THE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FL. DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION
ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL THIS AFTN...WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP NOW BECOMING CONFINED TO NE NC AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS IN THE FAR SE
ZONES...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO NOT CONFIDENT THAT SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT (WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY). LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TO THE LOWER 30S OVER SE COASTAL SECTIONS. IF SKIES
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT MAY SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
NE FLOW OVER THE SE COASTAL ZONES...SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 40S NE TO AROUND 50 F IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
FROM FLORIDA TO THE CARIBBEAN. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO
TURN MORE SW AND THIS WILL HELP STEER LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON/MON
NIGHT. POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO OUR N...SHIFTING EAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/MON IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LOCKING COLD AIR
OVER THE AKQ CWA. STILL SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PART
OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHC OF A FEW HRS WORTH OF
OVERRUNNING FROZEN PRECIP OVER CLIMO FAVORED PIEDMONT ZONES NW OF
RICHMOND (WITH LITTLE CHC FOR ANYTHING BUT ALL RAIN OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA). LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) ARE MARGINAL BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW LAYER OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT
THE SFC FROM ABOUT 09-15Z/MON AT KCHO (AND LIKELY AT KLKU). STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST PRECIP ARRIVES BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL GO
WITH A CHC FOR SLEET OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
09-12Z...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT
12-15Z/MON (ALTHOUGH BECOMING CONFINED TO THE FAR NW BY THIS
POINT). IN ANY EVENT...THIS LOOKS LIGHT AS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LIKELY ARRIVES AFTER A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. ALSO...NOT
ANTICIPATING TEMPS IN MID 20S...GENLY CLOSER TO 30-32 F...SO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGHS MON ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN
CAD SETUP. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON
AFTN...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ONLY AVG 0.25-0.50". LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FAR SE TO THE UPPER 40S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME -RA OR
SPRINKLES DEPICTED ON RADAR ACROSS NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK WAVE OFF THE SE US COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH
OUT TO SEA. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING NE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET/BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH 5-10KT WITH
WAVES/SEAS AVERAGING 1-2FT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
STALLED OFF THE SE COAST GETS ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING NE OUT OF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST OFF THE SE
COAST TONIGHT (RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE CURRENT SE
COAST LOW). THE NEWLY FORMED SE COAST LOW SLOWLY MOVES UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MON AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT...WASHING
OUT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD
FRONT TWD THE AREA. WINDS TURN TO THE NE SUN NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20KT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MON. LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY MON AFTN AND PERSIST OVER
SRN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING...AND OVER NRN WATERS THROUGH
LATE MON EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW GETS WASHED OUT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AS A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS A STRONG JET STREAK (90-150KT) ALSO
NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 15-25KT IN THE SRN WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE
NRN WATERS BY THE AFTN WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAMES. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE SLY WINDS
PRIOR TO SEEING THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM
2-4FT TUE NIGHT TO 4-5FT BY WED MORNING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4FT
ON CHES BAY ON WED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
WED EVENING AND SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. AM NOT ANTICIPATING GALE FORCE GUSTS UNLESS THEY
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WED AFTN/EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-9FT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE. S-SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WED NIGHT BECOME WLY ON
THU...REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL BRING A RETURN TO BREEZY NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...BMD









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202202
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
502 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC. SFC LOW PRESSURE
SLIDING INTO THE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FL. DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION
ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL THIS AFTN...WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP NOW BECOMING CONFINED TO NE NC AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS IN THE FAR SE
ZONES...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO NOT CONFIDENT THAT SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT (WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY). LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TO THE LOWER 30S OVER SE COASTAL SECTIONS. IF SKIES
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT MAY SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
NE FLOW OVER THE SE COASTAL ZONES...SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 40S NE TO AROUND 50 F IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
FROM FLORIDA TO THE CARIBBEAN. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO
TURN MORE SW AND THIS WILL HELP STEER LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON/MON
NIGHT. POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO OUR N...SHIFTING EAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/MON IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LOCKING COLD AIR
OVER THE AKQ CWA. STILL SHOULD SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PART
OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHC OF A FEW HRS WORTH OF
OVERRUNNING FROZEN PRECIP OVER CLIMO FAVORED PIEDMONT ZONES NW OF
RICHMOND (WITH LITTLE CHC FOR ANYTHING BUT ALL RAIN OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA). LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) ARE MARGINAL BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW LAYER OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT
THE SFC FROM ABOUT 09-15Z/MON AT KCHO (AND LIKELY AT KLKU). STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST PRECIP ARRIVES BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL GO
WITH A CHC FOR SLEET OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
09-12Z...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT
12-15Z/MON (ALTHOUGH BECOMING CONFINED TO THE FAR NW BY THIS
POINT). IN ANY EVENT...THIS LOOKS LIGHT AS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LIKELY ARRIVES AFTER A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. ALSO...NOT
ANTICIPATING TEMPS IN MID 20S...GENLY CLOSER TO 30-32 F...SO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGHS MON ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN
CAD SETUP. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON
AFTN...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ONLY AVG 0.25-0.50". LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FAR SE TO THE UPPER 40S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT TWD THE AREA. INITIAL
PUSH OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT TUE
NIGHT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS
THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG JET STREAK
(90-150 KT) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 60-65 NW AND MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO 65-69 FROM ROUGHLY
RICHMOND TO SE VA/NE NC. IN ADDITION TO DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60
DEGREES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...A THETA-E RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE SE WED MORNING INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WED AFTN/EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION LATE
WED NIGHT AND PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...COMING TO AN
END EARLY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD KEEP SCT-BKN CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THU.
CAA OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND A CONTINUED TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WSW WINDS OF 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35MPH...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY THU EVENING. OVERALL CONDITIONS
FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. A LEE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRI AND A WEAK CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL USHER MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS OVER THE AREA (-5 TO -15C). CAA
AND A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A RETURN
TO BREEZY SW WINDS ON SAT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON SUN BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME -RA OR
SPRINKLES DEPICTED ON RADAR ACROSS NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK WAVE OFF THE SE US COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH
OUT TO SEA. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING NE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET/BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH 5-10KT WITH
WAVES/SEAS AVERAGING 1-2FT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
STALLED OFF THE SE COAST GETS ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING NE OUT OF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST OFF THE SE
COAST TONIGHT (RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE CURRENT SE
COAST LOW). THE NEWLY FORMED SE COAST LOW SLOWLY MOVES UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON MON AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT...WASHING
OUT ON TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG AND VIGOROUS SFC LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND PUSHES A STRONG COLD
FRONT TWD THE AREA. WINDS TURN TO THE NE SUN NIGHT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 15-20KT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MON. LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY MON AFTN AND PERSIST OVER
SRN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING...AND OVER NRN WATERS THROUGH
LATE MON EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL LOW GETS WASHED OUT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON WED AS A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AS A STRONG JET STREAK (90-150KT) ALSO
NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SSW. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 15-25KT IN THE SRN WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE
NRN WATERS BY THE AFTN WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAMES. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE SLY WINDS
PRIOR TO SEEING THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM
2-4FT TUE NIGHT TO 4-5FT BY WED MORNING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4FT
ON CHES BAY ON WED. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS
WED EVENING AND SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. AM NOT ANTICIPATING GALE FORCE GUSTS UNLESS THEY
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WED AFTN/EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-9FT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU BEFORE STARTING TO
SUBSIDE. S-SW WINDS OF 20-30KT WED NIGHT BECOME WLY ON
THU...REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE DAY THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BRIEFLY FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE
STATES EXTENDS UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT WHICH
WILL BRING A RETURN TO BREEZY NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...BMD










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC. SFC LOW PRESSURE
SLIDING INTO THE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FL. DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION
ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL THIS AFTN...WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP NOW BECOMING CONFINED TO NE NC AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS IN THE FAR SE
ZONES...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO NOT CONFIDENT THAT SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT (WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY). LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TO THE LOWER 30S OVER SE COASTAL SECTIONS. IF SKIES
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT MAY SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
NE FLOW OVER THE SE COASTAL ZONES...SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 40S NE TO AROUND 50 F IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
FROM FLORIDA TO THE CARRIBEAN. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO
TURN MORE SW AND THIS WILL HELP STEER LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON/MON
NIGHT. POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO OUR N...SHIFTING EAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/MON IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LOCKING COLD AIR
OVER THE AKQ CWA. STILL SHOULE SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PART
OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHC OF A FEW HRS WORTH OF
OVERRUNNING FROZEN PRECIP OVER CLIMO FAVORED PIEDMONT ZONES NW OF
RICHMOND (WITH LITTLE CHC FOR ANYTHING BUT ALL RAIN OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA). LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) ARE MARGINAL BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW LAYER OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT
THE SFC FROM ABOUT 09-15Z/MON AT KCHO (AND LIKELY AT KLKU). STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST PRECIP ARRIVES BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL GO
WITH A CHC FOR SLEET OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
09-12Z...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT
12-15Z/MON (ALTHOUGH BECOMING CONFINED TO THE FAR NW BY THIS
POINT). IN ANY EVENT...THIS LOOKS LIGHT AS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LIKELY ARRIVES AFTER A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. ALSO...NOT
ANTICIPATING TEMPS IN MID 20S...GENLY CLOSER TO 30-32 F...SO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGHS MON ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN
CAD SETUP. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON
AFTN...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ONLY AVG 0.25-0.50". LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FAR SE TO THE UPPER 40S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
 A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL
BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTAINING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS WOULD BE A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME -RA OR
SPRINKLES DEPICTED ON RADAR ACROSS NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK WAVE OFF THE SE US COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH
OUT TO SEA. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING NE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT, RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ~10 KT OVER THE MARINE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRACKING NE OFF THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE (EAST) FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTN, GRADUALLY
BUILDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. 15-20KT EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY FOR SEAS) AND
LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, TRACKING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...BMD/MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLC. SFC LOW PRESSURE
SLIDING INTO THE ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FL. DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION
ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL THIS AFTN...WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIP NOW BECOMING CONFINED TO NE NC AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. WILL MAINTAIN 20% POPS IN THE FAR SE
ZONES...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO NOT CONFIDENT THAT SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT (WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY). LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE
COAST...TO THE LOWER 30S OVER SE COASTAL SECTIONS. IF SKIES
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT MAY SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
NE FLOW OVER THE SE COASTAL ZONES...SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 40S NE TO AROUND 50 F IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
FROM FLORIDA TO THE CARRIBEAN. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO
TURN MORE SW AND THIS WILL HELP STEER LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SE AND MID ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON/MON
NIGHT. POSITION OF SFC HIGH TO OUR N...SHIFTING EAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/MON IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR LOCKING COLD AIR
OVER THE AKQ CWA. STILL SHOULE SEE ENOUGH COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER
THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH PART
OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHC OF A FEW HRS WORTH OF
OVERRUNNING FROZEN PRECIP OVER CLIMO FAVORED PIEDMONT ZONES NW OF
RICHMOND (WITH LITTLE CHC FOR ANYTHING BUT ALL RAIN OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA). LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) ARE MARGINAL BUT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW LAYER OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT
THE SFC FROM ABOUT 09-15Z/MON AT KCHO (AND LIKELY AT KLKU). STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST PRECIP ARRIVES BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL GO
WITH A CHC FOR SLEET OVER THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN
09-12Z...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT
12-15Z/MON (ALTHOUGH BECOMING CONFINED TO THE FAR NW BY THIS
POINT). IN ANY EVENT...THIS LOOKS LIGHT AS BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
LIKELY ARRIVES AFTER A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. ALSO...NOT
ANTICIPATING TEMPS IN MID 20S...GENLY CLOSER TO 30-32 F...SO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGHS MON ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN
CAD SETUP. MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MON
AFTN...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ONLY AVG 0.25-0.50". LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S FAR SE TO THE UPPER 40S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
 A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL
BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTAINING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS WOULD BE A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME -RA OR
SPRINKLES DEPICTED ON RADAR ACROSS NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK WAVE OFF THE SE US COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH
OUT TO SEA. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING NE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT, RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ~10 KT OVER THE MARINE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRACKING NE OFF THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE (EAST) FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTN, GRADUALLY
BUILDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. 15-20KT EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY FOR SEAS) AND
LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, TRACKING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...BMD/MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN VA...WITH WEAK (~1018 MB) SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
GA/NORTH FL. ISENTROPIC LIFT PER 12Z NAM AT 285K SFC SEEMS TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NC AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA. A FEW REPORTS OF -SN WITH
VSBYS 1-3 SM OVER CENTRAL NC. NAM/RAP DEPICTION OF SFC WET BULB
TEMPERATURES OF 32-33 F LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE.
HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA ALONG/WEST OF I-95
THROUGH NOON...WITH 20-30% POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW DOWN NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER AND FOR INTERIOR NE NC. PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT SO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ANYWHERE. FORCING/LIFT WEAKENS AND FOCUSES
OVER SE NC AFTER 18Z...SO WILL LIMIT POPS AFTER 18Z TO NE NC AND
FAR SE VA FOR JUST A LOW CHC (20-30%) OF LIGHT RAIN. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOW 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. SEASONABLE HIGHS OF 45-50.

NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
MON...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL ZONES MON AM/MON AFTN.
LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN
FAR NW COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ENOUGH FROZEN
PCPN WOULD OCCUR TO CAUSE ANY CONCERNS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
AROUND 30 NW TO AROUND 40 VA BEACH. HIGHS MON ONLY AROUND 40 NW
TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL
BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTAINING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS WOULD BE A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME -RA OR
SPRINKLES DEPICTED ON RADAR ACROSS NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK WAVE OFF THE SE US COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH
OUT TO SEA. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING NE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT, RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ~10 KT OVER THE MARINE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRACKING NE OFF THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE (EAST) FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTN, GRADUALLY
BUILDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. 15-20KT EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY FOR SEAS) AND
LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, TRACKING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201917
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN VA...WITH WEAK (~1018 MB) SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
GA/NORTH FL. ISENTROPIC LIFT PER 12Z NAM AT 285K SFC SEEMS TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NC AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA. A FEW REPORTS OF -SN WITH
VSBYS 1-3 SM OVER CENTRAL NC. NAM/RAP DEPICTION OF SFC WET BULB
TEMPERATURES OF 32-33 F LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE.
HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA ALONG/WEST OF I-95
THROUGH NOON...WITH 20-30% POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW DOWN NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER AND FOR INTERIOR NE NC. PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT SO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ANYWHERE. FORCING/LIFT WEAKENS AND FOCUSES
OVER SE NC AFTER 18Z...SO WILL LIMIT POPS AFTER 18Z TO NE NC AND
FAR SE VA FOR JUST A LOW CHC (20-30%) OF LIGHT RAIN. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOW 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. SEASONABLE HIGHS OF 45-50.

NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
MON...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL ZONES MON AM/MON AFTN.
LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN
FAR NW COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ENOUGH FROZEN
PCPN WOULD OCCUR TO CAUSE ANY CONCERNS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
AROUND 30 NW TO AROUND 40 VA BEACH. HIGHS MON ONLY AROUND 40 NW
TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL
BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTAINING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS WOULD BE A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME -RA OR
SPRINKLES DEPICTED ON RADAR ACROSS NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK WAVE OFF THE SE US COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH
OUT TO SEA. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
EVENING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE MOVING NE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE EAST COAST.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT, RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ~10 KT OVER THE MARINE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRACKING NE OFF THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE (EAST) FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTN, GRADUALLY
BUILDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. 15-20KT EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY FOR SEAS) AND
LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, TRACKING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1036 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN VA...WITH WEAK (~1018 MB) SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
GA/NORTH FL. ISENTROPIC LIFT PER 12Z NAM AT 285K SFC SEEMS TO HAVE
A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NC AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA. A FEW REPORTS OF -SN WITH
VSBYS 1-3 SM OVER CENTRAL NC. NAM/RAP DEPICTION OF SFC WET BULB
TEMPERATURES OF 32-33 F LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE.
HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA ALONG/WEST OF I-95
THROUGH NOON...WITH 20-30% POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW DOWN NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER AND FOR INTERIOR NE NC. PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT SO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ANYWHERE. FORCING/LIFT WEAKENS AND FOCUSES
OVER SE NC AFTER 18Z...SO WILL LIMIT POPS AFTER 18Z TO NE NC AND
FAR SE VA FOR JUST A LOW CHC (20-30%) OF LIGHT RAIN. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOW 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. SEASONABLE HIGHS OF 45-50.

NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
MON...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL ZONES MON AM/MON AFTN.
LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN
FAR NW COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ENOUGH FROZEN
PCPN WOULD OCCUR TO CAUSE ANY CONCERNS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
AROUND 30 NW TO AROUND 40 VA BEACH. HIGHS MON ONLY AROUND 40 NW
TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL
BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTAINING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS WOULD BE A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY, WHILE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LOWERING CIGS THROUGH
THE MORNING, WITH OVC AT 5-8 KFT AGL EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN.
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHRAS, MAINLY IN
FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PHF/ORF/ECG AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HV GONE WITH PREDOMINATE SHRA
AT ECG THIS AFTN, WITH VICINITY WORDING AT ORF/PHF/RIC.

OUTLOOK...ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT, RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ~10 KT OVER THE MARINE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRACKING NE OFF THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE (EAST) FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTN, GRADUALLY
BUILDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. 15-20KT EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY FOR SEAS) AND
LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, TRACKING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201206
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY KEEPS DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH AS MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCPN MAKING IT ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NC/SC BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LATEST SFC OBS CONFIRM THAT.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH 12Z. 00Z SUITE OF MODELS
TRY TO BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER SINCE YESTERDAY...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
NO MORE THAN 30% ACROSS NE NC THIS AFTN. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY
WX NORTH OF HWY 58 IN VIRGINIA. WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...AN PCPN THAT FALLS NEAR THE NC
BORDER PRIOR TO 15Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A SNOW SHOWER OR SLEET
PELLETS WITH NO ACCUMULATION. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOW 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. SEASONABLE HIGHS OF 45-50.

NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
MON...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL ZONES MON AM/MON AFTN.
LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN
FAR NW COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ENOUGH FROZEN
PCPN WOULD OCCUR TO CAUSE ANY CONCERNS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
AROUND 30 NW TO AROUND 40 VA BEACH. HIGHS MON ONLY AROUND 40 NW
TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL
BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTAINING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS WOULD BE A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY, WHILE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LOWERING CIGS THROUGH
THE MORNING, WITH OVC AT 5-8 KFT AGL EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN.
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHRAS, MAINLY IN
FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PHF/ORF/ECG AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HV GONE WITH PREDOMINATE SHRA
AT ECG THIS AFTN, WITH VICINITY WORDING AT ORF/PHF/RIC.

OUTLOOK...ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT, RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ~10 KT OVER THE MARINE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRACKING NE OFF THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE (EAST) FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTN, GRADUALLY
BUILDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. 15-20KT EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY FOR SEAS) AND
LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, TRACKING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY KEEPS DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH AS MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PCPN MAKING IT ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NC/SC BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LATEST SFC OBS CONFIRM THAT.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH 12Z. 00Z SUITE OF MODELS
TRY TO BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER SINCE YESTERDAY...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO
NO MORE THAN 30% ACROSS NE NC THIS AFTN. GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY
WX NORTH OF HWY 58 IN VIRGINIA. WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...AN PCPN THAT FALLS NEAR THE NC
BORDER PRIOR TO 15Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A SNOW SHOWER OR SLEET
PELLETS WITH NO ACCUMULATION. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S NW TO MID 40S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOW 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. SEASONABLE HIGHS OF 45-50.

NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
MON...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL ZONES MON AM/MON AFTN.
LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN
FAR NW COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR ENOUGH FROZEN
PCPN WOULD OCCUR TO CAUSE ANY CONCERNS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
AROUND 30 NW TO AROUND 40 VA BEACH. HIGHS MON ONLY AROUND 40 NW
TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM
THE GULF STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL
BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION CONTAINING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS WOULD BE A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON
THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY, WHILE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LOWERING CIGS THROUGH
THE MORNING, WITH OVC AT 5-8 KFT AGL EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN.
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHRAS, MAINLY IN
FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PHF/ORF/ECG AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT, RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ~10 KT OVER THE MARINE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRACKING NE OFF THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTANT TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
ONSHORE (EAST) FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTN, GRADUALLY
BUILDING SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. 15-20KT EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY FOR SEAS) AND
LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, TRACKING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200558
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1258 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LIGHT NLY WINDS...THIN HIGH
CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S NEAR THE
COAST THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUD DECK. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF THRU THE
OVERNIGHT...FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. 295K SFC DEPICTS
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT AS
SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO INCREASE. HOWEVER...COND PRES DEFICIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS DEPICT TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY FORCING TO OVERCOME. THE
RESULT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

SAT...SYSTEM FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. NAM/GFS STILL SHOW
SOME FORCING ALOFT MAKING WAY INTO PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z/SAT AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER. PTYPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT WOULD TEND TO BE SNOW/SLEET
SAT AM ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 F (SFC WET BULBS IN
THE UPPER 20S INITIALLY). LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY HOWEVER...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT (GENLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF THAT...WITH A
TRACE MORE LIKELY). THUS...WILL ONLY GO WITH 30% POPS AT MOST. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AREA OF FORCING OVER THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL
VA WEAKENS AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CARRY LOW
CHC POPS IN FAR SE ZONES (ALL RAIN) THROUGH THE AFTN (ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA). CLOUDY TO MSTLY
CLOUDY W/ HIGHS GENLY 40-45 F SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH DRY
CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. LOWS IN THE 20S N TO THE 30S SE
SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM 45-50 F ON SUN. NEXT SYSTEM...THIS
ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MON...WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL ZONES BY LATE MON AM/MON AFTN. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN FAR NW COUNTIES. HIGHS MON ONLY
AROUND 40 F NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F (ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE
PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS
WOULD BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY, WHILE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LOWERING CIGS THROUGH
THE MORNING, WITH OVC AT 5-8 KFT AGL EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN.
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHRAS, MAINLY IN
FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PHF/ORF/ECG AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING
LIGHT CAA ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT NNW WIND
OVERNIGHT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT (5-10KT) NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TRACKS NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
LOW MONDAY...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 15-20KT EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY
FOR SEAS) AND LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...MAM/LSA
MARINE...AJZ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200558
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1258 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LIGHT NLY WINDS...THIN HIGH
CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S NEAR THE
COAST THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUD DECK. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF THRU THE
OVERNIGHT...FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. 295K SFC DEPICTS
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT AS
SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO INCREASE. HOWEVER...COND PRES DEFICIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS DEPICT TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY FORCING TO OVERCOME. THE
RESULT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

SAT...SYSTEM FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. NAM/GFS STILL SHOW
SOME FORCING ALOFT MAKING WAY INTO PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z/SAT AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER. PTYPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT WOULD TEND TO BE SNOW/SLEET
SAT AM ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 F (SFC WET BULBS IN
THE UPPER 20S INITIALLY). LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY HOWEVER...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT (GENLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF THAT...WITH A
TRACE MORE LIKELY). THUS...WILL ONLY GO WITH 30% POPS AT MOST. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AREA OF FORCING OVER THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL
VA WEAKENS AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CARRY LOW
CHC POPS IN FAR SE ZONES (ALL RAIN) THROUGH THE AFTN (ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA). CLOUDY TO MSTLY
CLOUDY W/ HIGHS GENLY 40-45 F SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH DRY
CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. LOWS IN THE 20S N TO THE 30S SE
SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM 45-50 F ON SUN. NEXT SYSTEM...THIS
ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MON...WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL ZONES BY LATE MON AM/MON AFTN. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN FAR NW COUNTIES. HIGHS MON ONLY
AROUND 40 F NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F (ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE
PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS
WOULD BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY, WHILE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LOWERING CIGS THROUGH
THE MORNING, WITH OVC AT 5-8 KFT AGL EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN.
FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHRAS, MAINLY IN
FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PHF/ORF/ECG AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING
LIGHT CAA ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT NNW WIND
OVERNIGHT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT (5-10KT) NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TRACKS NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
LOW MONDAY...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 15-20KT EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY
FOR SEAS) AND LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...MAM/LSA
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200318
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1018 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LIGHT NLY WINDS...THIN HIGH
CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S NEAR THE
COAST THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUD DECK. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF THRU THE
OVERNIGHT...FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. 295K SFC DEPICTS
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT AS
SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO INCREASE. HOWEVER...COND PRES DEFICIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS DEPICT TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY FORCING TO OVERCOME. THE
RESULT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

SAT...SYSTEM FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. NAM/GFS STILL SHOW
SOME FORCING ALOFT MAKING WAY INTO PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z/SAT AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER. PTYPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT WOULD TEND TO BE SNOW/SLEET
SAT AM ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 F (SFC WET BULBS IN
THE UPPER 20S INITIALLY). LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY HOWEVER...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT (GENLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF THAT...WITH A
TRACE MORE LIKELY). THUS...WILL ONLY GO WITH 30% POPS AT MOST. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AREA OF FORCING OVER THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL
VA WEAKENS AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CARRY LOW
CHC POPS IN FAR SE ZONES (ALL RAIN) THROUGH THE AFTN (ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA). CLOUDY TO MSTLY
CLOUDY W/ HIGHS GENLY 40-45 F SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH DRY
CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. LOWS IN THE 20S N TO THE 30S SE
SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM 45-50 F ON SUN. NEXT SYSTEM...THIS
ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MON...WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL ZONES BY LATE MON AM/MON AFTN. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN FAR NW COUNTIES. HIGHS MON ONLY
AROUND 40 F NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F (ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE
PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS
WOULD BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS THAT WAS OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY AFTN APPEAR TO
BE MOVING OFFSHORE. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOS BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE CLOUD BASES
LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY ON SATURDAY. MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST AT PHF ORF AND ECG. LIGHT RAIN BUT WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTION ARE IN THE TAFS AT ORF AND ECG.

OUTLOOK...ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING
LIGHT CAA ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT NNW WIND
OVERNIGHT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT (5-10KT) NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TRACKS NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
LOW MONDAY...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 15-20KT EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY
FOR SEAS) AND LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200318
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1018 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LIGHT NLY WINDS...THIN HIGH
CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S NEAR THE
COAST THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THE CLOUD DECK. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MODELS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF THRU THE
OVERNIGHT...FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S. 295K SFC DEPICTS
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT AS
SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS
ALOFT ALSO INCREASE. HOWEVER...COND PRES DEFICIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS DEPICT TOO MUCH DRY AIR FOR ANY FORCING TO OVERCOME. THE
RESULT WILL BE A DRY FORECAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

SAT...SYSTEM FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. NAM/GFS STILL SHOW
SOME FORCING ALOFT MAKING WAY INTO PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z/SAT AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER. PTYPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT WOULD TEND TO BE SNOW/SLEET
SAT AM ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 F (SFC WET BULBS IN
THE UPPER 20S INITIALLY). LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY HOWEVER...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT (GENLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF THAT...WITH A
TRACE MORE LIKELY). THUS...WILL ONLY GO WITH 30% POPS AT MOST. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AREA OF FORCING OVER THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL
VA WEAKENS AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CARRY LOW
CHC POPS IN FAR SE ZONES (ALL RAIN) THROUGH THE AFTN (ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA). CLOUDY TO MSTLY
CLOUDY W/ HIGHS GENLY 40-45 F SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH DRY
CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. LOWS IN THE 20S N TO THE 30S SE
SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM 45-50 F ON SUN. NEXT SYSTEM...THIS
ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MON...WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL ZONES BY LATE MON AM/MON AFTN. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN FAR NW COUNTIES. HIGHS MON ONLY
AROUND 40 F NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F (ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE
PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS
WOULD BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS THAT WAS OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY AFTN APPEAR TO
BE MOVING OFFSHORE. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOS BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE CLOUD BASES
LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY ON SATURDAY. MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST AT PHF ORF AND ECG. LIGHT RAIN BUT WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTION ARE IN THE TAFS AT ORF AND ECG.

OUTLOOK...ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING
LIGHT CAA ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT NNW WIND
OVERNIGHT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT (5-10KT) NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TRACKS NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
LOW MONDAY...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 15-20KT EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY
FOR SEAS) AND LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200037
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
737 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH BROAD ~1028 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST...RIDGING
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO DEVELOPING
ACRS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH PRECIP OVER LA/MS/AL AS OF 20Z
THIS AFTN. STILL MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AKQ FORECAST AREA...BUT
SOME HIGH CIRRUS HAS STARTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW
(AND BKN/OVC STRATO-CU HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE ERN SHORE.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE 40S...AS CHILLY AS THE UPPER 30S AT
KWAL/KOXB IN THE CLOUDS...AND AS WARM AS AROUND 50 OVER NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

FOR TONIGHT...DRY WX WILL PERSIST EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO RAPIDLY DROP AFTER SUNSET
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE. LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SAT...SYSTEM FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. NAM/GFS STILL SHOW
SOME FORCING ALOFT MAKING WAY INTO PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z/SAT AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER. PTYPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT WOULD TEND TO BE SNOW/SLEET
SAT AM ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 F (SFC WET BULBS IN
THE UPPER 20S INITIALLY). LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY HOWEVER...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT (GENLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF THAT...WITH A
TRACE MORE LIKELY). THUS...WILL ONLY GO WITH 30% POPS AT MOST. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AREA OF FORCING OVER THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL
VA WEAKENS AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CARRY LOW
CHC POPS IN FAR SE ZONES (ALL RAIN) THROUGH THE AFTN (ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA). CLOUDY TO MSTLY
CLOUDY W/ HIGHS GENLY 40-45 F SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH DRY
CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. LOWS IN THE 20S N TO THE 30S SE
SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM 45-50 F ON SUN. NEXT SYSTEM...THIS
ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MON...WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL ZONES BY LATE MON AM/MON AFTN. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN FAR NW COUNTIES. HIGHS MON ONLY
AROUND 40 F NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F (ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE
PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS
WOULD BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS THAT WAS OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY AFTN APPEAR TO
BE MOVING OFFSHORE. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOS BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE CLOUD BASES
LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY ON SATURDAY. MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST AT PHF ORF AND ECG. LIGHT RAIN BUT WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTION ARE IN THE TAFS AT ORF AND ECG.

OUTLOOK...ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING
LIGHT CAA ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT NNW WIND
OVERNIGHT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT (5-10KT) NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TRACKS NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
LOW MONDAY...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 15-20KT EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY
FOR SEAS) AND LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200037
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
737 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH BROAD ~1028 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST...RIDGING
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO DEVELOPING
ACRS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH PRECIP OVER LA/MS/AL AS OF 20Z
THIS AFTN. STILL MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AKQ FORECAST AREA...BUT
SOME HIGH CIRRUS HAS STARTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW
(AND BKN/OVC STRATO-CU HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE ERN SHORE.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE 40S...AS CHILLY AS THE UPPER 30S AT
KWAL/KOXB IN THE CLOUDS...AND AS WARM AS AROUND 50 OVER NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

FOR TONIGHT...DRY WX WILL PERSIST EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO RAPIDLY DROP AFTER SUNSET
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE. LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SAT...SYSTEM FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. NAM/GFS STILL SHOW
SOME FORCING ALOFT MAKING WAY INTO PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z/SAT AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER. PTYPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT WOULD TEND TO BE SNOW/SLEET
SAT AM ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 F (SFC WET BULBS IN
THE UPPER 20S INITIALLY). LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY HOWEVER...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT (GENLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF THAT...WITH A
TRACE MORE LIKELY). THUS...WILL ONLY GO WITH 30% POPS AT MOST. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AREA OF FORCING OVER THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL
VA WEAKENS AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CARRY LOW
CHC POPS IN FAR SE ZONES (ALL RAIN) THROUGH THE AFTN (ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA). CLOUDY TO MSTLY
CLOUDY W/ HIGHS GENLY 40-45 F SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH DRY
CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. LOWS IN THE 20S N TO THE 30S SE
SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM 45-50 F ON SUN. NEXT SYSTEM...THIS
ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MON...WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL ZONES BY LATE MON AM/MON AFTN. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN FAR NW COUNTIES. HIGHS MON ONLY
AROUND 40 F NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F (ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE
PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS
WOULD BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS THAT WAS OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY AFTN APPEAR TO
BE MOVING OFFSHORE. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOS BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE CLOUD BASES
LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY ON SATURDAY. MVFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST AT PHF ORF AND ECG. LIGHT RAIN BUT WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTION ARE IN THE TAFS AT ORF AND ECG.

OUTLOOK...ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING
LIGHT CAA ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT NNW WIND
OVERNIGHT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT (5-10KT) NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TRACKS NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
LOW MONDAY...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 15-20KT EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY
FOR SEAS) AND LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH BROAD ~1028 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST...RIDGING
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO DEVELOPING
ACRS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH PRECIP OVER LA/MS/AL AS OF 20Z
THIS AFTN. STILL MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AKQ FORECAST AREA...BUT
SOME HIGH CIRRUS HAS STARTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW
(AND BKN/OVC STRATO-CU HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE ERN SHORE.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE 40S...AS CHILLY AS THE UPPER 30S AT
KWAL/KOXB IN THE CLOUDS...AND AS WARM AS AROUND 50 OVER NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

FOR TONIGHT...DRY WX WILL PERSIST EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO RAPIDLY DROP AFTER SUNSET
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE. LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SAT...SYSTEM FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. NAM/GFS STILL SHOW
SOME FORCING ALOFT MAKING WAY INTO PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z/SAT AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER. PTYPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT WOULD TEND TO BE SNOW/SLEET
SAT AM ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 F (SFC WET BULBS IN
THE UPPER 20S INITIALLY). LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY HOWEVER...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT (GENLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF THAT...WITH A
TRACE MORE LIKELY). THUS...WILL ONLY GO WITH 30% POPS AT MOST. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AREA OF FORCING OVER THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL
VA WEAKENS AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CARRY LOW
CHC POPS IN FAR SE ZONES (ALL RAIN) THROUGH THE AFTN (ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA). CLOUDY TO MSTLY
CLOUDY W/ HIGHS GENLY 40-45 F SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH DRY
CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. LOWS IN THE 20S N TO THE 30S SE
SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM 45-50 F ON SUN. NEXT SYSTEM...THIS
ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MON...WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL ZONES BY LATE MON AM/MON AFTN. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN FAR NW COUNTIES. HIGHS MON ONLY
AROUND 40 F NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F (ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE
PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS
WOULD BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A VERY DISTINCT BOUNDARY BTWN BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS
(AROUND 3500 FT AGL) OVER NRN VA AND THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN
SHORE VERSUS THE REST OF THE REGION...WHERE AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR. IN ADDITION...NW
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN AND JUST SOUTH OF THE STRATUS
DECK. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CALM DOWN BY SUNSET BUT THE STRATUS
WILL REMAIN STEADFAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
AT KORF TURN MORE TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND A STRATUS DECK AROUND
2000 FT AGL COULD DEVELOP OFF THE BAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW AFTER 20/0700Z TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN. PRECIP COMES TO
AN END SATURDAY EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING
LIGHT CAA ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT NNW WIND
OVERNIGHT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT (5-10KT) NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TRACKS NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
LOW MONDAY...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 15-20KT EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY
FOR SEAS) AND LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...BMD/MPR
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH BROAD ~1028 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST...RIDGING
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC STATES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO DEVELOPING
ACRS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH PRECIP OVER LA/MS/AL AS OF 20Z
THIS AFTN. STILL MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AKQ FORECAST AREA...BUT
SOME HIGH CIRRUS HAS STARTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW
(AND BKN/OVC STRATO-CU HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE ERN SHORE.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE 40S...AS CHILLY AS THE UPPER 30S AT
KWAL/KOXB IN THE CLOUDS...AND AS WARM AS AROUND 50 OVER NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

FOR TONIGHT...DRY WX WILL PERSIST EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO RAPIDLY DROP AFTER SUNSET
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS
CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE. LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SAT...SYSTEM FROM THE GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL. NAM/GFS STILL SHOW
SOME FORCING ALOFT MAKING WAY INTO PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z/SAT AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODEST LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER. PTYPE ACRS THE PIEDMONT WOULD TEND TO BE SNOW/SLEET
SAT AM ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 32 F (SFC WET BULBS IN
THE UPPER 20S INITIALLY). LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY HOWEVER...SO ANY
PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT (GENLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF THAT...WITH A
TRACE MORE LIKELY). THUS...WILL ONLY GO WITH 30% POPS AT MOST. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...AREA OF FORCING OVER THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL
VA WEAKENS AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CARRY LOW
CHC POPS IN FAR SE ZONES (ALL RAIN) THROUGH THE AFTN (ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA). CLOUDY TO MSTLY
CLOUDY W/ HIGHS GENLY 40-45 F SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH DRY
CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. LOWS IN THE 20S N TO THE 30S SE
SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM 45-50 F ON SUN. NEXT SYSTEM...THIS
ONE MORE AMPLIFIED WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MON...WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL ZONES BY LATE MON AM/MON AFTN. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN ASIDE FROM
A BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE AT ONSET IN FAR NW COUNTIES. HIGHS MON ONLY
AROUND 40 F NW TO THE MID 50S FAR SE IN CAD SETUP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM
SW-NE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL PREVAIL SO LOW CHC (30%) POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. A VERY
DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIFTS NNE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST POTENTIAL OF RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
WAA. THE SECOND POTENTIAL WILL BE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEED 60F (ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN). THE
PATTERN DOES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYNAMICALLY FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 925-700MB WIND FIELD AVERAGING 40-50KT. THIS
WOULD BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARITY THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW-SIDE GIVEN THAT THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS AVERAGING FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 50-55. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW BY FRIDAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 55-60...BUT 60-65 IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A VERY DISTINCT BOUNDARY BTWN BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS
(AROUND 3500 FT AGL) OVER NRN VA AND THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN
SHORE VERSUS THE REST OF THE REGION...WHERE AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR. IN ADDITION...NW
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN AND JUST SOUTH OF THE STRATUS
DECK. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CALM DOWN BY SUNSET BUT THE STRATUS
WILL REMAIN STEADFAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
AT KORF TURN MORE TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND A STRATUS DECK AROUND
2000 FT AGL COULD DEVELOP OFF THE BAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW AFTER 20/0700Z TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN. PRECIP COMES TO
AN END SATURDAY EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NW OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING
LIGHT CAA ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT NNW WIND
OVERNIGHT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS IN THE OCEAN AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT (5-10KT) NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER E SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TRACKS NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE
LOW MONDAY...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 15-20KT EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN OCEAN ZONES (MAINLY
FOR SEAS) AND LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF JAMES. THERE IS NO CAA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS LOW...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...BMD/MPR
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1249 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~993 MB LO PRES OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH BROAD ~1027 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
AND INTO THE MID ATLC/SE STATES. GENLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT BKN/OVC CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER
NORTHERN VA AND SOME OF THIS HAS ROTATED SE AND WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN NECK/ERN SHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTN. AS THE HIGH SPREADS E
THIS AFTN SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS ACRS THE NE ERODE. MAIN UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NE THROUGH 18Z (MOSTLY CLOUDY)...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MIXING AREA
SOUNDINGS TO AROUND 925 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/AROUND 50 F OVER INTERIOR NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S ON THE ERN SHORE.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF APPROACHING THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVER THE OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND
LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S (TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL
RAPIDLY AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY LATE IN THE EVENING AS CLOUDS
SLOWLY INCREASE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. SFC LO PRES SLIDES E
FM THE GOM SAT...WITH JUST A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF THE LO SHOWING
OFF THE SE CST SAT NGT. 00Z GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN SAT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER ON AVG. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
20-30%...AND ONLY S OF I-64. COULD BE SOME SN/PL MIXED IN OVR THE
SRN PIEDMONT BUT PRIMARILY EXPECTING RA. ANY PCPN ENDS EVERYWHERE
BY LATE SAT AFTN. DRY CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN AS HI PRES
CENTERED OVR THE NE STATES STRETCHES DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD (E.G. 60% MON AND
TUE NGT/WED) AS CONFIDENCE FOR PCPN AS INCREASED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A VERY DISTINCT BOUNDARY BTWN BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS
(AROUND 3500 FT AGL) OVER NRN VA AND THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN
SHORE VERSUS THE REST OF THE REGION...WHERE AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR. IN ADDITION...NW
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN AND JUST SOUTH OF THE STRATUS
DECK. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CALM DOWN BY SUNSET BUT THE STRATUS
WILL REMAIN STEADFAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
AT KORF TURN MORE TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND A STRATUS DECK AROUND
2000 FT AGL COULD DEVELOP OFF THE BAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW AFTER 20/0700Z TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN. PRECIP COMES TO
AN END SATURDAY EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURGE BEHIND DEPARTING S/W SHUD REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH A GUST OR TWO TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE BAY NOT OUT OF THE QSTN
THRU NOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING A NRLY FLOW GOING AOB 15 KTS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKS NE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON & MON NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA
WITH A WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUE. A STRONGER LOW TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUES NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...BMD/MPR
MARINE...MPR









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1249 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~993 MB LO PRES OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH BROAD ~1027 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
AND INTO THE MID ATLC/SE STATES. GENLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT BKN/OVC CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER
NORTHERN VA AND SOME OF THIS HAS ROTATED SE AND WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN NECK/ERN SHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTN. AS THE HIGH SPREADS E
THIS AFTN SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS ACRS THE NE ERODE. MAIN UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NE THROUGH 18Z (MOSTLY CLOUDY)...WHILE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MIXING AREA
SOUNDINGS TO AROUND 925 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/AROUND 50 F OVER INTERIOR NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S ON THE ERN SHORE.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF APPROACHING THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVER THE OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND
LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S (TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL
RAPIDLY AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY LATE IN THE EVENING AS CLOUDS
SLOWLY INCREASE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. SFC LO PRES SLIDES E
FM THE GOM SAT...WITH JUST A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF THE LO SHOWING
OFF THE SE CST SAT NGT. 00Z GUIDANCE KEEPS THE NRN ADVANCEMENT OF
PCPN SAT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER ON AVG. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
20-30%...AND ONLY S OF I-64. COULD BE SOME SN/PL MIXED IN OVR THE
SRN PIEDMONT BUT PRIMARILY EXPECTING RA. ANY PCPN ENDS EVERYWHERE
BY LATE SAT AFTN. DRY CONDS THEN FOR SAT NGT AND SUN AS HI PRES
CENTERED OVR THE NE STATES STRETCHES DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE POPS THRU THE PERIOD (E.G. 60% MON AND
TUE NGT/WED) AS CONFIDENCE FOR PCPN AS INCREASED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A VERY DISTINCT BOUNDARY BTWN BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS
(AROUND 3500 FT AGL) OVER NRN VA AND THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN
SHORE VERSUS THE REST OF THE REGION...WHERE AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR. IN ADDITION...NW
WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN AND JUST SOUTH OF THE STRATUS
DECK. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CALM DOWN BY SUNSET BUT THE STRATUS
WILL REMAIN STEADFAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
AT KORF TURN MORE TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND A STRATUS DECK AROUND
2000 FT AGL COULD DEVELOP OFF THE BAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW AFTER 20/0700Z TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN. PRECIP COMES TO
AN END SATURDAY EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AND COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURGE BEHIND DEPARTING S/W SHUD REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH A GUST OR TWO TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE BAY NOT OUT OF THE QSTN
THRU NOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING A NRLY FLOW GOING AOB 15 KTS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKS NE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON & MON NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA
WITH A WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUE. A STRONGER LOW TRACKS W OF THE
MOUNTAINS TUES NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAS
AVIATION...BMD/MPR
MARINE...MPR










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