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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTN SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN VA/WRN
MD/SOUTH CENTRAL PA. BREEZY WARM DAY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 70-75 F OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...WITH 60S
PREVAILING ON THE ERN SHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VA/NE NC.
SKIES ARE STILL SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LATEST
SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW (MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S)...SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS PRIOR TO THIS OVER THE FAR NORTH).
SOME OF THE HIGH- RES MODEL DATA STILL DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL
THE WAY INTO SRN VA/NE NC. GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT
CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND S/SW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12. WILL CONFINE LOW
END LIKELY POPS TO THE MD ZONES...WITH JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR
REMAINING ZONES MAINLY ALONG/N/NE OF I-64. GENLY GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST S/SW OF I-64.

WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35
MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER THROUGH SUNSET SO THE FIRE WX STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312017
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTN SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN VA/WRN
MD/SOUTH CENTRAL PA. BREEZY WARM DAY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 70-75 F OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...WITH 60S
PREVAILING ON THE ERN SHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VA/NE NC.
SKIES ARE STILL SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LATEST
SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW (MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S)...SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS PRIOR TO THIS OVER THE FAR NORTH).
SOME OF THE HIGH- RES MODEL DATA STILL DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL
THE WAY INTO SRN VA/NE NC. GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT
CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND S/SW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12. WILL CONFINE LOW
END LIKELY POPS TO THE MD ZONES...WITH JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR
REMAINING ZONES MAINLY ALONG/N/NE OF I-64. GENLY GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST S/SW OF I-64.

WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35
MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER THROUGH SUNSET SO THE FIRE WX STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTN SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN VA/WRN
MD/SOUTH CENTRAL PA. BREEZY WARM DAY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 70-75 F OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...WITH 60S
PREVAILING ON THE ERN SHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VA/NE NC.
SKIES ARE STILL SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LATEST
SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW (MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S)...SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS PRIOR TO THIS OVER THE FAR NORTH).
SOME OF THE HIGH- RES MODEL DATA STILL DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL
THE WAY INTO SRN VA/NE NC. GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT
CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND S/SW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12. WILL CONFINE LOW
END LIKELY POPS TO THE MD ZONES...WITH JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR
REMAINING ZONES MAINLY ALONG/N/NE OF I-64. GENLY GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST S/SW OF I-64.

WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35
MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER THROUGH SUNSET SO THE FIRE WX STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTN SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN VA/WRN
MD/SOUTH CENTRAL PA. BREEZY WARM DAY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 70-75 F OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...WITH 60S
PREVAILING ON THE ERN SHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VA/NE NC.
SKIES ARE STILL SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LATEST
SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC
LOW AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW (MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S)...SO
PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS PRIOR TO THIS OVER THE FAR NORTH).
SOME OF THE HIGH- RES MODEL DATA STILL DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL
THE WAY INTO SRN VA/NE NC. GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT
CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THE GROUND S/SW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12. WILL CONFINE LOW
END LIKELY POPS TO THE MD ZONES...WITH JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR
REMAINING ZONES MAINLY ALONG/N/NE OF I-64. GENLY GOING WITH A DRY
FORECAST S/SW OF I-64.

WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35
MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER THROUGH SUNSET SO THE FIRE WX STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25%
RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND
NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6
PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD
OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY
DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND
NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6
PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD
OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY
DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND
NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6
PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD
OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY
DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND
22-23Z.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND
NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6
PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD
OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY
DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311531
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1131 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL TACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE
OHIO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL. SKIES ARE MAINLY SKC ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
IN NORTHERN WV/PA/ERN OH..AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AKQ CWA AFTER 18Z. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW...SO PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...FROM
ABOUT 20Z LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
HIGH-RES MODEL DATA DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN
VA/NE NC...GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS SHOW
PRECIP FALLING ALONG/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12.

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR DUE TO DEEP MIXING...SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
CURRENT OBS. HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE
TO THE LOWER-MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE
WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN/AFTER 20Z AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO
60-70% OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA
AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LO PRES OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HI PRES RIDGING UP THE MID ATLANTIC FM THE SE STATES.
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR SLY FLOW TDA WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE
LO 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. OTWS...EXPECT SOME PASSING HI CLOUDS TDA
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-30 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER DURING THE AFTN
AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENG AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO 60-70% OVER
THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE.
CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNITE WITH LO TEMPS TNGT ONLY IN THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE ACROSS VA
AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM/MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LO PRES OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND HI PRES RIDGING UP THE MID ATLANTIC FM THE SE STATES.
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR SLY FLOW TDA WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 60S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE
LO 70S MOST OTHER AREAS. OTWS...EXPECT SOME PASSING HI CLOUDS TDA
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-30 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER DURING THE AFTN
AND A STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENG AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
QPF (UNDER A TENTH OF INCH) BUT POPS ARE NOW UP TO 60-70% OVER
THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE.
CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNITE WITH LO TEMPS TNGT ONLY IN THE
UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A
WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE ACROSS VA
AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE
NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL
NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310641
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
241 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA
SW ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE NC CSTL PLAIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SKIES MAINLY SKC ERLY THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW WILL CROSS THE MTS THEN OVRSPRD
THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT. XPCT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FA. TMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTR SUNSET BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. COLDEST TMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
INLAND SWRN CNTYS WHERE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ALONG WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE M30S ACROSS THE SWRN CNTYS
TO THE L-M40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310641
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
241 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA
SW ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE NC CSTL PLAIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SKIES MAINLY SKC ERLY THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW WILL CROSS THE MTS THEN OVRSPRD
THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT. XPCT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FA. TMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTR SUNSET BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. COLDEST TMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
INLAND SWRN CNTYS WHERE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ALONG WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE M30S ACROSS THE SWRN CNTYS
TO THE L-M40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310641
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
241 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA
SW ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE NC CSTL PLAIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SKIES MAINLY SKC ERLY THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW WILL CROSS THE MTS THEN OVRSPRD
THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT. XPCT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FA. TMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTR SUNSET BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. COLDEST TMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
INLAND SWRN CNTYS WHERE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ALONG WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE M30S ACROSS THE SWRN CNTYS
TO THE L-M40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310641
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
241 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA
SW ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE NC CSTL PLAIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SKIES MAINLY SKC ERLY THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW WILL CROSS THE MTS THEN OVRSPRD
THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT. XPCT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FA. TMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTR SUNSET BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. COLDEST TMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
INLAND SWRN CNTYS WHERE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ALONG WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE M30S ACROSS THE SWRN CNTYS
TO THE L-M40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
MNLY W WNDS STARTING OFF EARLY TDA...W/ SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TDY...RESULTING IN AN INCRS IN
SW FLOW OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TNGT W/ FLOW BECOMING NW POST
FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE LO LVL CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TNGT...CONT WED MRNG. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TNGT INTO
WEDS MRNG. SFC HI PRES LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MRNG...ALLOWING
SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE MIDDAY/AFTN. HI PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURS AS S FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVGG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP
MARINE...ALB/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310523
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA
SW ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE NC CSTL PLAIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SKIES MAINLY SKC ERLY THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW WILL CROSS THE MTS THEN OVRSPRD
THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT. XPCT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FA. TMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTR SUNSET BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. COLDEST TMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
INLAND SWRN CNTYS WHERE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ALONG WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE M30S ACROSS THE SWRN CNTYS
TO THE L-M40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH
FLOW BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE
 SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED. SCA HEADLINES ALSO DROPPED OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
AS SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT. NW FLOW
WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER
THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN
10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN
AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NWLY
POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES
EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS
MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20
KT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310523
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA
SW ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE NC CSTL PLAIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SKIES MAINLY SKC ERLY THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW WILL CROSS THE MTS THEN OVRSPRD
THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT. XPCT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FA. TMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTR SUNSET BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. COLDEST TMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
INLAND SWRN CNTYS WHERE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ALONG WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE M30S ACROSS THE SWRN CNTYS
TO THE L-M40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH
FLOW BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE
 SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED. SCA HEADLINES ALSO DROPPED OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
AS SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT. NW FLOW
WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER
THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN
10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN
AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NWLY
POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES
EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS
MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20
KT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310523
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA
SW ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE NC CSTL PLAIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SKIES MAINLY SKC ERLY THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW WILL CROSS THE MTS THEN OVRSPRD
THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT. XPCT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FA. TMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTR SUNSET BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. COLDEST TMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
INLAND SWRN CNTYS WHERE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ALONG WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE M30S ACROSS THE SWRN CNTYS
TO THE L-M40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS (TO ABT 30 KT) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND
VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH
FLOW BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE
 SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED. SCA HEADLINES ALSO DROPPED OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
AS SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT. NW FLOW
WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER
THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN
10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN
AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NWLY
POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES
EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS
MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20
KT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310128
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA
SW ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE NC CSTL PLAIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SKIES MAINLY SKC ERLY THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW WILL CROSS THE MTS THEN OVRSPRD
THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT. XPCT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FA. TMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTR SUNSET BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. COLDEST TMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
INLAND SWRN CNTYS WHERE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ALONG WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE M30S ACROSS THE SWRN CNTYS
TO THE L-M40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH
FLOW BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE
 SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED. SCA HEADLINES ALSO DROPPED OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
AS SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT. NW FLOW
WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER
THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN
10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN
AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NWLY
POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES
EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS
MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20
KT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310128
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA
SW ACROSS SERN VA AND INTO THE NC CSTL PLAIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
SKIES MAINLY SKC ERLY THIS EVENING BUT MID/HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE NW WILL CROSS THE MTS THEN OVRSPRD
THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT. XPCT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FA. TMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTR SUNSET BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT SHOULD
LEVEL OFF AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. COLDEST TMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
INLAND SWRN CNTYS WHERE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ALONG WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE M30S ACROSS THE SWRN CNTYS
TO THE L-M40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH
FLOW BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE
 SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED. SCA HEADLINES ALSO DROPPED OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
AS SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT. NW FLOW
WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER
THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN
10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN
AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NWLY
POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES
EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS
MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20
KT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302337
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
737 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT EXITS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXIT THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY COME TO AN END
OVER COASTAL NE NC LATE THIS AFTN. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BROKEN
UP NICELY AS DRIER AIR VIA NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...SCOURING
OUT ANY REMNANT CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
SPREADING ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NWRN
HALF OF THE FA TWD MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 35-40 WEST TO 40-45 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN.

A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH
FLOW BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE
 SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE
DROPPED. SCA HEADLINES ALSO DROPPED OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS
AS SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT. NW FLOW
WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER
THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN
10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN
AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT
OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NWLY
POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES
EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS
MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20
KT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT EXITS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXIT THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY COME TO AN END
OVER COASTAL NE NC LATE THIS AFTN. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BROKEN
UP NICELY AS DRIER AIR VIA NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...SCOURING
OUT ANY REMNANT CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
SPREADING ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NWRN
HALF OF THE FA TWD MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 35-40 WEST TO 40-45 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF -RA WILL PUSH EAST OF KECG BY 19Z. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SW TO WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TIL AROUND 22-23Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN. A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW
BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE FINALLY
SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED.
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS AS SSE SWELL HAS
HELPED KEEP SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU 7PM AS W-NW WINDS WILL HELP PUSH SEAS
BELOW 5 FT THIS EVENING. NW FLOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE
FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN 10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON.
FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND
SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH
FLOW BECOMING NWLY POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUES EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO
15-25 KT LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS
MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20 KT. COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT EXITS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXIT THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY COME TO AN END
OVER COASTAL NE NC LATE THIS AFTN. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BROKEN
UP NICELY AS DRIER AIR VIA NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...SCOURING
OUT ANY REMNANT CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
SPREADING ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NWRN
HALF OF THE FA TWD MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 35-40 WEST TO 40-45 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF -RA WILL PUSH EAST OF KECG BY 19Z. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SW TO WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TIL AROUND 22-23Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN. A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW
BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE FINALLY
SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED.
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS AS SSE SWELL HAS
HELPED KEEP SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU 7PM AS W-NW WINDS WILL HELP PUSH SEAS
BELOW 5 FT THIS EVENING. NW FLOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE
FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN 10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON.
FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND
SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH
FLOW BECOMING NWLY POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUES EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO
15-25 KT LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS
MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20 KT. COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT EXITS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXIT THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY COME TO AN END
OVER COASTAL NE NC LATE THIS AFTN. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BROKEN
UP NICELY AS DRIER AIR VIA NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...SCOURING
OUT ANY REMNANT CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
SPREADING ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NWRN
HALF OF THE FA TWD MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 35-40 WEST TO 40-45 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF -RA WILL PUSH EAST OF KECG BY 19Z. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SW TO WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TIL AROUND 22-23Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN. A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW
BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE FINALLY
SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED.
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS AS SSE SWELL HAS
HELPED KEEP SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU 7PM AS W-NW WINDS WILL HELP PUSH SEAS
BELOW 5 FT THIS EVENING. NW FLOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE
FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN 10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON.
FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND
SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH
FLOW BECOMING NWLY POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUES EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO
15-25 KT LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS
MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20 KT. COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT EXITS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXIT THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY COME TO AN END
OVER COASTAL NE NC LATE THIS AFTN. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BROKEN
UP NICELY AS DRIER AIR VIA NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...SCOURING
OUT ANY REMNANT CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
SPREADING ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NWRN
HALF OF THE FA TWD MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 35-40 WEST TO 40-45 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED
TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH
NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP
BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY
ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING
LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS
AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N
WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT
LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS
ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF.
BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6-
12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-
SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN
PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE
COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN
STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID-
UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF -RA WILL PUSH EAST OF KECG BY 19Z. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SW TO WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TIL AROUND 22-23Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN. A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW
BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE FINALLY
SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED.
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS AS SSE SWELL HAS
HELPED KEEP SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU 7PM AS W-NW WINDS WILL HELP PUSH SEAS
BELOW 5 FT THIS EVENING. NW FLOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE
FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN 10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON.
FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND
SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH
FLOW BECOMING NWLY POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUES EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO
15-25 KT LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS
MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20 KT. COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE
ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE
MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR
DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING
THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301747
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE AND DOWN INTO FAR SE VA AND ALL OF NE NC LATE THIS
MORNING. RADAR ECHOES APPEAR MUCH WORSE THAN IS HAPPENING AT THE
SFC...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF AMTS OF 0.02 INCHES OR LESS
OCCURRING. SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO W-NW
DURING THE AFTN AND ADDITIONAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOLED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM PRECIP AND DELAYED CLEARING THIS AFTN. LOWER 60S WEST
TO MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ALOFT) CONSISTS MAINLY OF A WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW. LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE INITIAL BAND OF
RADAR ECHOES THAT HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AT MOST
PRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF -IP ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES.
THE NEXT BATCH IS PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISO/SCT -SHRA OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MID-MORNING. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT SO
EXPECT VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE QPE. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE OVER SE VA/NE NC LATER THIS
MORNING...SO A PERIOD OF LIKELY -SHRA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. STILL
EVENTUAL QPE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ~0.1IN OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CLEARING TREND PROGRESSING NW-SE. FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW (A WNW
WIND OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH) SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. FARTHER E...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR
-SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PRIMARILY FOR THE NRN INTERIOR VA
COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70F
ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ERN SHORE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
N...TO MID 40S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF -RA WILL PUSH EAST OF KECG BY 19Z. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SW TO WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TIL AROUND 22-23Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

HIGH PRESSURE BREIFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN. A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE SE CST WITH
A COLD FRNT PUSHING EWD THRU THE OH VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A PREFRNTAL SLY SURGE IS NOW BEGINNING OVER THE LOCAL
WTRS. TRICKY CALL REGARDING SCA HEADLINES...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
WINDS AND EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
TO FREQUENT GUSTS ~20 KT...HOISTED A SCA FOR THE BAY AND LWR
JAMES. A SCA HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO
SEAS OUT 20 NM CLOSE TO 5 FT AND GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT. ONLY MARGINAL
SCA CONDS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COLD WATER PREVENTING THE
HIGHEST WINDS FM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE
WTRS THIS AFTN/EVENG...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL
TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE
FLOW SWITCHING FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION TUES NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES
NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. BUT AGAIN IT WOULD BE MARGINAL. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDS- THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634-638-650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301747
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE AND DOWN INTO FAR SE VA AND ALL OF NE NC LATE THIS
MORNING. RADAR ECHOES APPEAR MUCH WORSE THAN IS HAPPENING AT THE
SFC...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF AMTS OF 0.02 INCHES OR LESS
OCCURRING. SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO W-NW
DURING THE AFTN AND ADDITIONAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOLED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM PRECIP AND DELAYED CLEARING THIS AFTN. LOWER 60S WEST
TO MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ALOFT) CONSISTS MAINLY OF A WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW. LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE INITIAL BAND OF
RADAR ECHOES THAT HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AT MOST
PRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF -IP ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES.
THE NEXT BATCH IS PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISO/SCT -SHRA OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MID-MORNING. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT SO
EXPECT VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE QPE. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE OVER SE VA/NE NC LATER THIS
MORNING...SO A PERIOD OF LIKELY -SHRA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. STILL
EVENTUAL QPE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ~0.1IN OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CLEARING TREND PROGRESSING NW-SE. FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW (A WNW
WIND OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH) SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. FARTHER E...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR
-SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PRIMARILY FOR THE NRN INTERIOR VA
COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70F
ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ERN SHORE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
N...TO MID 40S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF -RA WILL PUSH EAST OF KECG BY 19Z. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SW TO WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TIL AROUND 22-23Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

HIGH PRESSURE BREIFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN. A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE SE CST WITH
A COLD FRNT PUSHING EWD THRU THE OH VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A PREFRNTAL SLY SURGE IS NOW BEGINNING OVER THE LOCAL
WTRS. TRICKY CALL REGARDING SCA HEADLINES...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
WINDS AND EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
TO FREQUENT GUSTS ~20 KT...HOISTED A SCA FOR THE BAY AND LWR
JAMES. A SCA HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO
SEAS OUT 20 NM CLOSE TO 5 FT AND GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT. ONLY MARGINAL
SCA CONDS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COLD WATER PREVENTING THE
HIGHEST WINDS FM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE
WTRS THIS AFTN/EVENG...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL
TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE
FLOW SWITCHING FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION TUES NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES
NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. BUT AGAIN IT WOULD BE MARGINAL. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDS- THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634-638-650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301747
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE AND DOWN INTO FAR SE VA AND ALL OF NE NC LATE THIS
MORNING. RADAR ECHOES APPEAR MUCH WORSE THAN IS HAPPENING AT THE
SFC...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF AMTS OF 0.02 INCHES OR LESS
OCCURRING. SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO W-NW
DURING THE AFTN AND ADDITIONAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOLED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM PRECIP AND DELAYED CLEARING THIS AFTN. LOWER 60S WEST
TO MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ALOFT) CONSISTS MAINLY OF A WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW. LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE INITIAL BAND OF
RADAR ECHOES THAT HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AT MOST
PRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF -IP ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES.
THE NEXT BATCH IS PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISO/SCT -SHRA OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MID-MORNING. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT SO
EXPECT VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE QPE. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE OVER SE VA/NE NC LATER THIS
MORNING...SO A PERIOD OF LIKELY -SHRA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. STILL
EVENTUAL QPE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ~0.1IN OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CLEARING TREND PROGRESSING NW-SE. FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW (A WNW
WIND OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH) SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. FARTHER E...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR
-SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PRIMARILY FOR THE NRN INTERIOR VA
COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70F
ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ERN SHORE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
N...TO MID 40S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF -RA WILL PUSH EAST OF KECG BY 19Z. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SW TO WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TIL AROUND 22-23Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

HIGH PRESSURE BREIFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN. A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE SE CST WITH
A COLD FRNT PUSHING EWD THRU THE OH VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A PREFRNTAL SLY SURGE IS NOW BEGINNING OVER THE LOCAL
WTRS. TRICKY CALL REGARDING SCA HEADLINES...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
WINDS AND EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
TO FREQUENT GUSTS ~20 KT...HOISTED A SCA FOR THE BAY AND LWR
JAMES. A SCA HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO
SEAS OUT 20 NM CLOSE TO 5 FT AND GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT. ONLY MARGINAL
SCA CONDS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COLD WATER PREVENTING THE
HIGHEST WINDS FM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE
WTRS THIS AFTN/EVENG...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL
TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE
FLOW SWITCHING FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION TUES NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES
NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. BUT AGAIN IT WOULD BE MARGINAL. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDS- THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
     634-638-650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301446
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1046 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE AND DOWN INTO FAR SE VA AND ALL OF NE NC LATE THIS
MORNING. RADAR ECHOES APPEAR MUCH WORSE THAN IS HAPPENING AT THE
SFC...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF AMTS OF 0.02 INCHES OR LESS
OCCURRING. SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO W-NW
DURING THE AFTN AND ADDITIONAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOLED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM PRECIP AND DELAYED CLEARING THIS AFTN. LOWER 60S WEST
TO MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ALOFT) CONSISTS MAINLY OF A WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW. LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE INITIAL BAND OF
RADAR ECHOES THAT HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AT MOST
PRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF -IP ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES.
THE NEXT BATCH IS PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISO/SCT -SHRA OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MID-MORNING. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT SO
EXPECT VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE QPE. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE OVER SE VA/NE NC LATER THIS
MORNING...SO A PERIOD OF LIKELY -SHRA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. STILL
EVENTUAL QPE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ~0.1IN OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CLEARING TREND PROGRESSING NW-SE. FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW (A WNW
WIND OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH) SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. FARTHER E...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR
-SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PRIMARILY FOR THE NRN INTERIOR VA
COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70F
ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ERN SHORE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
N...TO MID 40S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. AREA OF PCPN IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING E THRU CNTRL/ERN VA SO INCLUDED EITHER -RA OR VCSH IN ALL
TAFS THRU MIDDAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY 4-7K
FT...BUT PSBLY DOWN TO MVFR HEIGHTS AT KECG LATER TDA. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN BEING LIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS WILL SHIFT GUSTY S/SW WINDS THIS MORNG TO THE W/NW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US EARLY TUESDAY BUT A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE SE CST WITH
A COLD FRNT PUSHING EWD THRU THE OH VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A PREFRNTAL SLY SURGE IS NOW BEGINNING OVER THE LOCAL
WTRS. TRICKY CALL REGARDING SCA HEADLINES...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
WINDS AND EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
TO FREQUENT GUSTS ~20 KT...HOISTED A SCA FOR THE BAY AND LWR
JAMES. A SCA HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO
SEAS OUT 20 NM CLOSE TO 5 FT AND GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT. ONLY MARGINAL
SCA CONDS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COLD WATER PREVENTING THE
HIGHEST WINDS FM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE
WTRS THIS AFTN/EVENG...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL
TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE
FLOW SWITCHING FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION TUES NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES
NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. BUT AGAIN IT WOULD BE MARGINAL. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDS- THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301446
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1046 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE AND DOWN INTO FAR SE VA AND ALL OF NE NC LATE THIS
MORNING. RADAR ECHOES APPEAR MUCH WORSE THAN IS HAPPENING AT THE
SFC...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF AMTS OF 0.02 INCHES OR LESS
OCCURRING. SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO W-NW
DURING THE AFTN AND ADDITIONAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOLED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM PRECIP AND DELAYED CLEARING THIS AFTN. LOWER 60S WEST
TO MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ALOFT) CONSISTS MAINLY OF A WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW. LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE INITIAL BAND OF
RADAR ECHOES THAT HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AT MOST
PRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF -IP ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES.
THE NEXT BATCH IS PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISO/SCT -SHRA OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MID-MORNING. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT SO
EXPECT VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE QPE. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE OVER SE VA/NE NC LATER THIS
MORNING...SO A PERIOD OF LIKELY -SHRA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. STILL
EVENTUAL QPE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ~0.1IN OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CLEARING TREND PROGRESSING NW-SE. FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW (A WNW
WIND OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH) SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. FARTHER E...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR
-SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PRIMARILY FOR THE NRN INTERIOR VA
COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70F
ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ERN SHORE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
N...TO MID 40S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. AREA OF PCPN IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING E THRU CNTRL/ERN VA SO INCLUDED EITHER -RA OR VCSH IN ALL
TAFS THRU MIDDAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY 4-7K
FT...BUT PSBLY DOWN TO MVFR HEIGHTS AT KECG LATER TDA. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN BEING LIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS WILL SHIFT GUSTY S/SW WINDS THIS MORNG TO THE W/NW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US EARLY TUESDAY BUT A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE SE CST WITH
A COLD FRNT PUSHING EWD THRU THE OH VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A PREFRNTAL SLY SURGE IS NOW BEGINNING OVER THE LOCAL
WTRS. TRICKY CALL REGARDING SCA HEADLINES...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
WINDS AND EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
TO FREQUENT GUSTS ~20 KT...HOISTED A SCA FOR THE BAY AND LWR
JAMES. A SCA HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO
SEAS OUT 20 NM CLOSE TO 5 FT AND GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT. ONLY MARGINAL
SCA CONDS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COLD WATER PREVENTING THE
HIGHEST WINDS FM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE
WTRS THIS AFTN/EVENG...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL
TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE
FLOW SWITCHING FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION TUES NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES
NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. BUT AGAIN IT WOULD BE MARGINAL. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDS- THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301446
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1046 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE AND DOWN INTO FAR SE VA AND ALL OF NE NC LATE THIS
MORNING. RADAR ECHOES APPEAR MUCH WORSE THAN IS HAPPENING AT THE
SFC...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT QPF AMTS OF 0.02 INCHES OR LESS
OCCURRING. SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL VA WHERE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO W-NW
DURING THE AFTN AND ADDITIONAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOLED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM PRECIP AND DELAYED CLEARING THIS AFTN. LOWER 60S WEST
TO MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ALOFT) CONSISTS MAINLY OF A WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW. LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE INITIAL BAND OF
RADAR ECHOES THAT HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AT MOST
PRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF -IP ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES.
THE NEXT BATCH IS PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISO/SCT -SHRA OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MID-MORNING. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT SO
EXPECT VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE QPE. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE OVER SE VA/NE NC LATER THIS
MORNING...SO A PERIOD OF LIKELY -SHRA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. STILL
EVENTUAL QPE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ~0.1IN OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CLEARING TREND PROGRESSING NW-SE. FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW (A WNW
WIND OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH) SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. FARTHER E...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR
-SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PRIMARILY FOR THE NRN INTERIOR VA
COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70F
ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ERN SHORE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
N...TO MID 40S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. AREA OF PCPN IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING E THRU CNTRL/ERN VA SO INCLUDED EITHER -RA OR VCSH IN ALL
TAFS THRU MIDDAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY 4-7K
FT...BUT PSBLY DOWN TO MVFR HEIGHTS AT KECG LATER TDA. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN BEING LIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS WILL SHIFT GUSTY S/SW WINDS THIS MORNG TO THE W/NW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US EARLY TUESDAY BUT A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE SE CST WITH
A COLD FRNT PUSHING EWD THRU THE OH VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A PREFRNTAL SLY SURGE IS NOW BEGINNING OVER THE LOCAL
WTRS. TRICKY CALL REGARDING SCA HEADLINES...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
WINDS AND EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
TO FREQUENT GUSTS ~20 KT...HOISTED A SCA FOR THE BAY AND LWR
JAMES. A SCA HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO
SEAS OUT 20 NM CLOSE TO 5 FT AND GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT. ONLY MARGINAL
SCA CONDS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COLD WATER PREVENTING THE
HIGHEST WINDS FM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE
WTRS THIS AFTN/EVENG...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL
TONIGHT DUE TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE
FLOW SWITCHING FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION TUES NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES
NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. BUT AGAIN IT WOULD BE MARGINAL. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDS- THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
659 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT ALOFT) CONSISTS MAINLY OF A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW.
LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. THE INITIAL BAND OF RADAR ECHOES THAT HAVE PASSED
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AT MOST PRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF -IP
ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES. THE NEXT BATCH IS PASSING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISO/SCT -SHRA OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE QPE. THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE OVER SE
VA/NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...SO A PERIOD OF LIKELY -SHRA HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED. STILL EVENTUAL QPE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
~0.1IN OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CLEARING TREND PROGRESSING NW-SE. FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW (A WNW
WIND OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH) SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. FARTHER E...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR
-SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PRIMARILY FOR THE NRN INTERIOR VA
COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70F
ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ERN SHORE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
N...TO MID 40S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. AREA OF PCPN IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING E THRU CNTRL/ERN VA SO INCLUDED EITHER -RA OR VCSH IN ALL
TAFS THRU MIDDAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY 4-7K
FT...BUT PSBLY DOWN TO MVFR HEIGHTS AT KECG LATER TDA. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN BEING LIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE REGION.
THIS WILL SHIFT GUSTY S/SW WINDS THIS MORNG TO THE W/NW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US EARLY TUESDAY BUT A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE SE CST WITH
A COLD FRNT PUSHING EWRD THRU THE OH VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A PREFRNTAL SLY SURGE IS NOW BEGINNING OVER THE LOCAL
WTRS. TRICKY CALL REGARDING SCA HEADLINES...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
WINDS AND EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO
FREQUENT GUSTS ~20 KT...HOISTED A SCA FOR THE BAY AND LWR JAMES. A
SCA HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO SEAS OUT 20 NM
CLOSE TO 5 FT AND GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT. ONLY MARGINAL SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COLD WATER PREVENTING THE HIGHEST
WINDS FM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVENG...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL TONIGHT DUE
TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING
FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS TUES...CROSSING THE REGION TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. BUT
AGAIN IT WOULD BE MARGINAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDS-
THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT ALOFT) CONSISTS MAINLY OF A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW.
LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. THE INITIAL BAND OF RADAR ECHOES THAT HAVE PASSED
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AT MOST PRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF -IP
ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES. THE NEXT BATCH IS PASSING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISO/SCT -SHRA OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE QPE. THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE OVER SE
VA/NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...SO A PERIOD OF LIKELY -SHRA HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED. STILL EVENTUAL QPE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
~0.1IN OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CLEARING TREND PROGRESSING NW-SE. FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW (A WNW
WIND OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH) SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. FARTHER E...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR
-SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PRIMARILY FOR THE NRN INTERIOR VA
COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70F
ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ERN SHORE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
N...TO MID 40S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
06Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING TO W/SW BY TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE SE CST WITH
A COLD FRNT PUSHING EWRD THRU THE OH VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A PREFRNTAL SLY SURGE IS NOW BEGINNING OVER THE LOCAL
WTRS. TRICKY CALL REGARDING SCA HEADLINES...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
WINDS AND EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO
FREQUENT GUSTS ~20 KT...HOISTED A SCA FOR THE BAY AND LWR JAMES. A
SCA HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO SEAS OUT 20 NM
CLOSE TO 5 FT AND GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT. ONLY MARGINAL SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COLD WATER PREVENTING THE HIGHEST
WINDS FM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVENG...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL TONIGHT DUE
TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING
FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS TUES...CROSSING THE REGION TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. BUT
AGAIN IT WOULD BE MARGINAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDS-
THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT ALOFT) CONSISTS MAINLY OF A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW.
LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. THE INITIAL BAND OF RADAR ECHOES THAT HAVE PASSED
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AT MOST PRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF -IP
ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES. THE NEXT BATCH IS PASSING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISO/SCT -SHRA OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE QPE. THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE OVER SE
VA/NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...SO A PERIOD OF LIKELY -SHRA HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED. STILL EVENTUAL QPE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
~0.1IN OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CLEARING TREND PROGRESSING NW-SE. FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW (A WNW
WIND OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH) SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. FARTHER E...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR
-SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PRIMARILY FOR THE NRN INTERIOR VA
COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70F
ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ERN SHORE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
N...TO MID 40S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
06Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING TO W/SW BY TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE SE CST WITH
A COLD FRNT PUSHING EWRD THRU THE OH VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A PREFRNTAL SLY SURGE IS NOW BEGINNING OVER THE LOCAL
WTRS. TRICKY CALL REGARDING SCA HEADLINES...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
WINDS AND EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO
FREQUENT GUSTS ~20 KT...HOISTED A SCA FOR THE BAY AND LWR JAMES. A
SCA HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO SEAS OUT 20 NM
CLOSE TO 5 FT AND GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT. ONLY MARGINAL SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COLD WATER PREVENTING THE HIGHEST
WINDS FM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVENG...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL TONIGHT DUE
TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING
FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS TUES...CROSSING THE REGION TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. BUT
AGAIN IT WOULD BE MARGINAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDS-
THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A MID-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING
BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY (ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT ALOFT) CONSISTS MAINLY OF A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW.
LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. THE INITIAL BAND OF RADAR ECHOES THAT HAVE PASSED
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AT MOST PRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF -IP
ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES. THE NEXT BATCH IS PASSING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISO/SCT -SHRA OVER THE
NW HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE SURFACE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE QPE. THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE OVER SE
VA/NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...SO A PERIOD OF LIKELY -SHRA HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED. STILL EVENTUAL QPE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
~0.1IN OR LESS.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
CLEARING TREND PROGRESSING NW-SE. FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW (A WNW
WIND OF 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH) SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. FARTHER E...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR
-SHRA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PRIMARILY FOR THE NRN INTERIOR VA
COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY PCPN S OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70F
ON TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MID 60S OVER THE INTERIOR ERN SHORE...AND
LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDER A SUNNY SKY AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
N...TO MID 40S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
06Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING TO W/SW BY TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE SE CST WITH
A COLD FRNT PUSHING EWRD THRU THE OH VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...A PREFRNTAL SLY SURGE IS NOW BEGINNING OVER THE LOCAL
WTRS. TRICKY CALL REGARDING SCA HEADLINES...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
WINDS AND EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO
FREQUENT GUSTS ~20 KT...HOISTED A SCA FOR THE BAY AND LWR JAMES. A
SCA HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO SEAS OUT 20 NM
CLOSE TO 5 FT AND GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT. ONLY MARGINAL SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COLD WATER PREVENTING THE HIGHEST
WINDS FM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVENG...WITH SUB-SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL TONIGHT DUE
TO WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING
FROM THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE WATERS TUES...CROSSING THE REGION TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. BUT
AGAIN IT WOULD BE MARGINAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WEDS-
THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR OVER THE FA AS TMPS SINCE
SUNSET HAVE CRASHED TO NEAR OR BLO FCSTD MINS OVR THE ERN HALF
OF FA WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE. HAVE LOWERED MINS
OVR ERN AREAS...WITH LOWS OCCURRING OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LOWS
U20S-M30S WITH STDY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS AFTR MIDNITE.

QUICK LOOK AT THE ERLY 00Z DATA SUGGESTS SOME PCPN DRYS UP/DSPTS
AS IT MOVES EAST OF MTS TONIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHCS FOR PCPN AHEAD
OF THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT WILL BE AFTR 09Z AN OVER THE NRN THIRD
OF THE FA. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHEST POPS (40%) OVR
THE NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY WITH 20-30 POP ELSEWHERE XCPT
REMAINING DRY THRU 12Z ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS. ANY PCPN XPCTD TO
BE IN LIQUID FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME IP PSBL AT THE ONSET OVR THE
NORTH DUE TO THE DRY LWR LVLS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
06Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING TO W/SW BY TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS/DAP
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR OVER THE FA AS TMPS SINCE
SUNSET HAVE CRASHED TO NEAR OR BLO FCSTD MINS OVR THE ERN HALF
OF FA WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE. HAVE LOWERED MINS
OVR ERN AREAS...WITH LOWS OCCURRING OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LOWS
U20S-M30S WITH STDY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS AFTR MIDNITE.

QUICK LOOK AT THE ERLY 00Z DATA SUGGESTS SOME PCPN DRYS UP/DSPTS
AS IT MOVES EAST OF MTS TONIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHCS FOR PCPN AHEAD
OF THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT WILL BE AFTR 09Z AN OVER THE NRN THIRD
OF THE FA. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHEST POPS (40%) OVR
THE NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY WITH 20-30 POP ELSEWHERE XCPT
REMAINING DRY THRU 12Z ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS. ANY PCPN XPCTD TO
BE IN LIQUID FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME IP PSBL AT THE ONSET OVR THE
NORTH DUE TO THE DRY LWR LVLS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
06Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING TO W/SW BY TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS/DAP
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300548
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR OVER THE FA AS TMPS SINCE
SUNSET HAVE CRASHED TO NEAR OR BLO FCSTD MINS OVR THE ERN HALF
OF FA WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE. HAVE LOWERED MINS
OVR ERN AREAS...WITH LOWS OCCURRING OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LOWS
U20S-M30S WITH STDY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS AFTR MIDNITE.

QUICK LOOK AT THE ERLY 00Z DATA SUGGESTS SOME PCPN DRYS UP/DSPTS
AS IT MOVES EAST OF MTS TONIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHCS FOR PCPN AHEAD
OF THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT WILL BE AFTR 09Z AN OVER THE NRN THIRD
OF THE FA. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHEST POPS (40%) OVR
THE NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY WITH 20-30 POP ELSEWHERE XCPT
REMAINING DRY THRU 12Z ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS. ANY PCPN XPCTD TO
BE IN LIQUID FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME IP PSBL AT THE ONSET OVR THE
NORTH DUE TO THE DRY LWR LVLS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
06Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING TO W/SW BY TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS/DAP
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR OVER THE FA AS TMPS SINCE
SUNSET HAVE CRASHED TO NEAR OR BLO FCSTD MINS OVR THE ERN HALF
OF FA WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE. HAVE LOWERED MINS
OVR ERN AREAS...WITH LOWS OCCURRING OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LOWS
U20S-M30S WITH STDY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS AFTR MIDNITE.

QUICK LOOK AT THE ERLY 00Z DATA SUGGESTS SOME PCPN DRYS UP/DSPTS
AS IT MOVES EAST OF MTS TONIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHCS FOR PCPN AHEAD
OF THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT WILL BE AFTR 09Z AN OVER THE NRN THIRD
OF THE FA. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHEST POPS (40%) OVR
THE NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY WITH 20-30 POP ELSEWHERE XCPT
REMAINING DRY THRU 12Z ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS. ANY PCPN XPCTD TO
BE IN LIQUID FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME IP PSBL AT THE ONSET OVR THE
NORTH DUE TO THE DRY LWR LVLS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
00Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
NWRN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON
MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON
MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY MON AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY
BACKING TO W/SW BY MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR OVER THE FA AS TMPS SINCE
SUNSET HAVE CRASHED TO NEAR OR BLO FCSTD MINS OVR THE ERN HALF
OF FA WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE. HAVE LOWERED MINS
OVR ERN AREAS...WITH LOWS OCCURRING OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LOWS
U20S-M30S WITH STDY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS AFTR MIDNITE.

QUICK LOOK AT THE ERLY 00Z DATA SUGGESTS SOME PCPN DRYS UP/DSPTS
AS IT MOVES EAST OF MTS TONIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHCS FOR PCPN AHEAD
OF THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT WILL BE AFTR 09Z AN OVER THE NRN THIRD
OF THE FA. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHEST POPS (40%) OVR
THE NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY WITH 20-30 POP ELSEWHERE XCPT
REMAINING DRY THRU 12Z ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS. ANY PCPN XPCTD TO
BE IN LIQUID FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME IP PSBL AT THE ONSET OVR THE
NORTH DUE TO THE DRY LWR LVLS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
00Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
NWRN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON
MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON
MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY MON AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY
BACKING TO W/SW BY MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR OVER THE FA AS TMPS SINCE
SUNSET HAVE CRASHED TO NEAR OR BLO FCSTD MINS OVR THE ERN HALF
OF FA WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE. HAVE LOWERED MINS
OVR ERN AREAS...WITH LOWS OCCURRING OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LOWS
U20S-M30S WITH STDY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS AFTR MIDNITE.

QUICK LOOK AT THE ERLY 00Z DATA SUGGESTS SOME PCPN DRYS UP/DSPTS
AS IT MOVES EAST OF MTS TONIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHCS FOR PCPN AHEAD
OF THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT WILL BE AFTR 09Z AN OVER THE NRN THIRD
OF THE FA. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHEST POPS (40%) OVR
THE NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY WITH 20-30 POP ELSEWHERE XCPT
REMAINING DRY THRU 12Z ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS. ANY PCPN XPCTD TO
BE IN LIQUID FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME IP PSBL AT THE ONSET OVR THE
NORTH DUE TO THE DRY LWR LVLS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
00Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
NWRN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON
MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON
MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY MON AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY
BACKING TO W/SW BY MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR OVER THE FA AS TMPS SINCE
SUNSET HAVE CRASHED TO NEAR OR BLO FCSTD MINS OVR THE ERN HALF
OF FA WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE. HAVE LOWERED MINS
OVR ERN AREAS...WITH LOWS OCCURRING OVR THE NEXT FEW HRS. LOWS
U20S-M30S WITH STDY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS AFTR MIDNITE.

QUICK LOOK AT THE ERLY 00Z DATA SUGGESTS SOME PCPN DRYS UP/DSPTS
AS IT MOVES EAST OF MTS TONIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHCS FOR PCPN AHEAD
OF THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT WILL BE AFTR 09Z AN OVER THE NRN THIRD
OF THE FA. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHEST POPS (40%) OVR
THE NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY WITH 20-30 POP ELSEWHERE XCPT
REMAINING DRY THRU 12Z ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS. ANY PCPN XPCTD TO
BE IN LIQUID FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME IP PSBL AT THE ONSET OVR THE
NORTH DUE TO THE DRY LWR LVLS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
00Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
NWRN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON
MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON
MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY MON AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY
BACKING TO W/SW BY MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
851 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE S-SW
THIS EVENING. SKIES STILL SKC ERN HALF OF FA BUT SAT LOOP AND
AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING HIGH CLDNS RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS)...XPCT TMPS TO DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING THEN STEADY OUT
OR SLOWLY RISE AFTR MIDNITE DUE TO INCRG CLDNS AND WAA FROM THE
S-SW WIND. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE A FEW
SUB FREEZING READINGS ARE PSBL ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE
RISING LATE. LOWS IN THE 30S.

QUICK LOOK AT THE RAP/HRRR/SREF INDICATES LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN
BEFORE 09Z DUE TO THE XTREMELY DRY COLUMN...SO ADJUSTED THE GRIDS
IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME A BIT. BEST CHC FOR ANY PCPN HERE WOULD
BE ACROSS INTERIOR NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY (LOUISA-BOWLING
GREEN-COLONIAL BEACH LINE) SO KEPT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...DRY THRU
09Z. DATA THEN SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG
COLD FRONT ALLOWING THE AREA OF SHWRS TO EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF
THE FA WEST OF THE BAY BTWN 09-12Z. THUS...KEPT CHC POPS THERE
WITH A BUFFER ZONE OF SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST.

WITH BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS PRESENT AND THICKNESSES NOT FALLING
TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FROZEN PRECIP UNTIL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT
XPCT MAINLY RAIN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SFC WET
BULBS NEAR FREEZING COULD SUPPORT SOME IP MIXING WITH RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP...SPCLLY ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
00Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
NWRN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON
MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON
MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY MON AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY
BACKING TO W/SW BY MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
851 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE S-SW
THIS EVENING. SKIES STILL SKC ERN HALF OF FA BUT SAT LOOP AND
AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING HIGH CLDNS RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS)...XPCT TMPS TO DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING THEN STEADY OUT
OR SLOWLY RISE AFTR MIDNITE DUE TO INCRG CLDNS AND WAA FROM THE
S-SW WIND. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE A FEW
SUB FREEZING READINGS ARE PSBL ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE
RISING LATE. LOWS IN THE 30S.

QUICK LOOK AT THE RAP/HRRR/SREF INDICATES LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN
BEFORE 09Z DUE TO THE XTREMELY DRY COLUMN...SO ADJUSTED THE GRIDS
IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME A BIT. BEST CHC FOR ANY PCPN HERE WOULD
BE ACROSS INTERIOR NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY (LOUISA-BOWLING
GREEN-COLONIAL BEACH LINE) SO KEPT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...DRY THRU
09Z. DATA THEN SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG
COLD FRONT ALLOWING THE AREA OF SHWRS TO EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF
THE FA WEST OF THE BAY BTWN 09-12Z. THUS...KEPT CHC POPS THERE
WITH A BUFFER ZONE OF SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST.

WITH BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS PRESENT AND THICKNESSES NOT FALLING
TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FROZEN PRECIP UNTIL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT
XPCT MAINLY RAIN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SFC WET
BULBS NEAR FREEZING COULD SUPPORT SOME IP MIXING WITH RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP...SPCLLY ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
00Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
NWRN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON
MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON
MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY MON AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY
BACKING TO W/SW BY MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
851 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE S-SW
THIS EVENING. SKIES STILL SKC ERN HALF OF FA BUT SAT LOOP AND
AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING HIGH CLDNS RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS)...XPCT TMPS TO DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING THEN STEADY OUT
OR SLOWLY RISE AFTR MIDNITE DUE TO INCRG CLDNS AND WAA FROM THE
S-SW WIND. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE A FEW
SUB FREEZING READINGS ARE PSBL ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE
RISING LATE. LOWS IN THE 30S.

QUICK LOOK AT THE RAP/HRRR/SREF INDICATES LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN
BEFORE 09Z DUE TO THE XTREMELY DRY COLUMN...SO ADJUSTED THE GRIDS
IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME A BIT. BEST CHC FOR ANY PCPN HERE WOULD
BE ACROSS INTERIOR NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY (LOUISA-BOWLING
GREEN-COLONIAL BEACH LINE) SO KEPT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...DRY THRU
09Z. DATA THEN SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG
COLD FRONT ALLOWING THE AREA OF SHWRS TO EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF
THE FA WEST OF THE BAY BTWN 09-12Z. THUS...KEPT CHC POPS THERE
WITH A BUFFER ZONE OF SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST.

WITH BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS PRESENT AND THICKNESSES NOT FALLING
TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FROZEN PRECIP UNTIL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT
XPCT MAINLY RAIN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SFC WET
BULBS NEAR FREEZING COULD SUPPORT SOME IP MIXING WITH RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP...SPCLLY ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
00Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON... BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
NWRN HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON
MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON
MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY MON AFTN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY
BACKING TO W/SW BY MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SE US TUESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE
EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE S-SW
THIS EVENING. SKIES STILL SKC ERN HALF OF FA BUT SAT LOOP AND
AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING HIGH CLDNS RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS)...XPCT TMPS TO DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING THEN STEADY OUT
OR SLOWLY RISE AFTR MIDNITE DUE TO INCRG CLDNS AND WAA FROM THE
S-SW WIND. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE A FEW
SUB FREEZING READINGS ARE PSBL ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE
RISING LATE. LOWS IN THE 30S.

QUICK LOOK AT THE RAP/HRRR/SREF INDICATES LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN
BEFORE 09Z DUE TO THE XTREMELY DRY COLUMN...SO ADJUSTED THE GRIDS
IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME A BIT. BEST CHC FOR ANY PCPN HERE WOULD
BE ACROSS INTERIOR NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY (LOUISA-BOWLING
GREEN-COLONIAL BEACH LINE) SO KEPT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...DRY THRU
09Z. DATA THEN SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG
COLD FRONT ALLOWING THE AREA OF SHWRS TO EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF
THE FA WEST OF THE BAY BTWN 09-12Z. THUS...KEPT CHC POPS THERE
WITH A BUFFER ZOME OF SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST.

WITH BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS PRESENT AND THICKNESSES NOT FALLING
TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FROZEN PRECIP UNTIL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT
XPCT MAINLY RAIN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SFC WET
BULBS NEAR FREEZING COULD SUPPORT SOME IP MIXING WITH RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP...SPCLLY ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTN. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW DURING THE EVENING. OTWS...
DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HI CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW
THIS EVENG. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON...
BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE AFTN/EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL
BE DRY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE S-SW
THIS EVENING. SKIES STILL SKC ERN HALF OF FA BUT SAT LOOP AND
AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING HIGH CLDNS RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS)...XPCT TMPS TO DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING THEN STEADY OUT
OR SLOWLY RISE AFTR MIDNITE DUE TO INCRG CLDNS AND WAA FROM THE
S-SW WIND. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE A FEW
SUB FREEZING READINGS ARE PSBL ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE
RISING LATE. LOWS IN THE 30S.

QUICK LOOK AT THE RAP/HRRR/SREF INDICATES LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN
BEFORE 09Z DUE TO THE XTREMELY DRY COLUMN...SO ADJUSTED THE GRIDS
IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME A BIT. BEST CHC FOR ANY PCPN HERE WOULD
BE ACROSS INTERIOR NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY (LOUISA-BOWLING
GREEN-COLONIAL BEACH LINE) SO KEPT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...DRY THRU
09Z. DATA THEN SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG
COLD FRONT ALLOWING THE AREA OF SHWRS TO EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF
THE FA WEST OF THE BAY BTWN 09-12Z. THUS...KEPT CHC POPS THERE
WITH A BUFFER ZOME OF SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST.

WITH BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS PRESENT AND THICKNESSES NOT FALLING
TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FROZEN PRECIP UNTIL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT
XPCT MAINLY RAIN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SFC WET
BULBS NEAR FREEZING COULD SUPPORT SOME IP MIXING WITH RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP...SPCLLY ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTN. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW DURING THE EVENING. OTWS...
DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HI CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW
THIS EVENG. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON...
BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE AFTN/EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL
BE DRY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE S-SW
THIS EVENING. SKIES STILL SKC ERN HALF OF FA BUT SAT LOOP AND
AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING HIGH CLDNS RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS)...XPCT TMPS TO DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING THEN STEADY OUT
OR SLOWLY RISE AFTR MIDNITE DUE TO INCRG CLDNS AND WAA FROM THE
S-SW WIND. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE A FEW
SUB FREEZING READINGS ARE PSBL ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE
RISING LATE. LOWS IN THE 30S.

QUICK LOOK AT THE RAP/HRRR/SREF INDICATES LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN
BEFORE 09Z DUE TO THE XTREMELY DRY COLUMN...SO ADJUSTED THE GRIDS
IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME A BIT. BEST CHC FOR ANY PCPN HERE WOULD
BE ACROSS INTERIOR NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY (LOUISA-BOWLING
GREEN-COLONIAL BEACH LINE) SO KEPT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...DRY THRU
09Z. DATA THEN SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG
COLD FRONT ALLOWING THE AREA OF SHWRS TO EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF
THE FA WEST OF THE BAY BTWN 09-12Z. THUS...KEPT CHC POPS THERE
WITH A BUFFER ZOME OF SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST.

WITH BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS PRESENT AND THICKNESSES NOT FALLING
TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FROZEN PRECIP UNTIL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT
XPCT MAINLY RAIN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SFC WET
BULBS NEAR FREEZING COULD SUPPORT SOME IP MIXING WITH RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP...SPCLLY ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTN. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW DURING THE EVENING. OTWS...
DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HI CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW
THIS EVENG. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON...
BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE AFTN/EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL
BE DRY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE S-SW
THIS EVENING. SKIES STILL SKC ERN HALF OF FA BUT SAT LOOP AND
AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING HIGH CLDNS RAPIDLY APPRCHG FROM THE WEST.
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS (DP TMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS)...XPCT TMPS TO DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING THEN STEADY OUT
OR SLOWLY RISE AFTR MIDNITE DUE TO INCRG CLDNS AND WAA FROM THE
S-SW WIND. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE A FEW
SUB FREEZING READINGS ARE PSBL ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE
RISING LATE. LOWS IN THE 30S.

QUICK LOOK AT THE RAP/HRRR/SREF INDICATES LTL IN THE WAY OF PCPN
BEFORE 09Z DUE TO THE XTREMELY DRY COLUMN...SO ADJUSTED THE GRIDS
IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME A BIT. BEST CHC FOR ANY PCPN HERE WOULD
BE ACROSS INTERIOR NRN MOST CNTYS WEST OF THE BAY (LOUISA-BOWLING
GREEN-COLONIAL BEACH LINE) SO KEPT CHC POPS THERE. OTW...DRY THRU
09Z. DATA THEN SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG
COLD FRONT ALLOWING THE AREA OF SHWRS TO EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF
THE FA WEST OF THE BAY BTWN 09-12Z. THUS...KEPT CHC POPS THERE
WITH A BUFFER ZOME OF SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST.

WITH BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS PRESENT AND THICKNESSES NOT FALLING
TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FROZEN PRECIP UNTIL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT
XPCT MAINLY RAIN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SFC WET
BULBS NEAR FREEZING COULD SUPPORT SOME IP MIXING WITH RAIN AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP...SPCLLY ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTN. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW DURING THE EVENING. OTWS...
DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HI CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW
THIS EVENG. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON...
BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE AFTN/EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL
BE DRY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MPR
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
418 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH THAT HAS KEPT SUNNY SKIES BUT COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
THIS AFTN. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND CROSSES THE REGION MON MORNING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALONG THE FRONT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT NEARS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...ANY MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME AN ALREADY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN ORDER FOR SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT POP FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA AFTER SUNRISE WHERE THE FRONT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE LOW-LEVEL MARINE LAYER. LIQUID PRECIP AMTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 0.10 INCHES (AVERAGING AROUND 0.05 INCHES).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDEST EAST (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER WEST...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 10 MPH. WITH BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS PRESENT AND
THICKNESSES NOT FALLING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FROZEN PRECIP
UNTIL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...HAVE MAINTAINED AN ALL RAIN FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. HOWEVER...SFC WET BULBS NEAR
FREEZING COULD SUPPORT SOME GRAUPEL MIXING WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIP.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTN. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW DURING THE EVENING. OTWS...
DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HI CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW
THIS EVENG. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON...
BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE AFTN/EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL
BE DRY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WHILE NO RECORDS WERE BROKEN THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS DID
COME CLOSE AT ELIZABETH CITY NC.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

          ACTUAL RECORD
LOCATION    LOW    LOW
--------  ------ -------
RIC         26   22/1923
ORF         29   25/1982
SBY         24   18/1923
ECG         26   24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
418 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH THAT HAS KEPT SUNNY SKIES BUT COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
THIS AFTN. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING AND CROSSES THE REGION MON MORNING. MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALONG THE FRONT GETS SHEARED APART AS IT NEARS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...ANY MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME AN ALREADY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN ORDER FOR SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. HAVE MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT POP FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA AFTER SUNRISE WHERE THE FRONT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE LOW-LEVEL MARINE LAYER. LIQUID PRECIP AMTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 0.10 INCHES (AVERAGING AROUND 0.05 INCHES).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDEST EAST (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER WEST...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 10 MPH. WITH BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS PRESENT AND
THICKNESSES NOT FALLING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR FROZEN PRECIP
UNTIL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...HAVE MAINTAINED AN ALL RAIN FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. HOWEVER...SFC WET BULBS NEAR
FREEZING COULD SUPPORT SOME GRAUPEL MIXING WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIP.

THE SFC FRONT EXITS THE COAST MON AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP
AT THE SE COAST AND A WIND SHIFT TO WLY WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WIND
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH
UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING...NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSING THE REGION MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR TUESDAY...A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRACKS
ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A RIBBON OF 20-30% POPS (FOR -SHRA)
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PRIMARILY THE NRN INTERIOR VA COUNTIES AND
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE FOR TUE AFTN/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET
ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON TUESDAY OVER
INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH
LOWER 60S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
DELMARVA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
TO MID-UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
ANTICIPATED FOR WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 SW TO 55 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT. INCREASING SLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A FLATTENING SRN STREAM WAVE WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA THURS. RESULTANT WAA WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THURS FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY
THANKS TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING. HAVE
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS. POTENT NRN
STREAM WAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI
PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING SFC LOW INTO SE CANADA. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN
STREAM SYSTEM...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION AROUND 12 HR
QUICKER THAN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF SPATIAL
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SAT. 28/12Z ECMWF PUSHES
THE PRECIP OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...BUT THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MILD TEMPS EXPECTED
THURS NIGHT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. WARM SECTOR/SWLY FLOW PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S INLAND
(POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS MID 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES SAT NIGHT-SUN...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HI PRES HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTN. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW DURING THE EVENING. OTWS...
DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HI CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW
THIS EVENG. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MON...
BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA
(INCLUDING KRIC/KSBY) BEFORE DAWN MON MORNING AND ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MON MORNING. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO KSBY TUE AFTN/EVENING. WED/WED NIGHT WILL
BE DRY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
NWD OVER THE LOCAL WATER. THE RESULT IS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS...WITH
NWLY WINDS AOB 15 KT...WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SSWLY TONIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER
LATE MON. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT-MON
MORNING...BUT WAA OVER COLD WATER WILL RESULT IN A SHARP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
BAY AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY MON
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE WATER DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS AT
15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALSO UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH DUE TO GFS WINDS BEING TOO STRONG. LOCAL STUDIES ALSO
SUGGEST BRIEF S-SWLY FETCH WILL HAVE TROUBLES BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FT
IN THE NRN WATERS. AS A RESULT...NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
SCA CONDITIONS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED POST FRONTAL MON NIGHT DUE TO
WEAK GRADIENT WINDS AND LIMITED CAA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING WITH THE FLOW SWITCHING FROM
THE NW BACK TO THE SW TUES. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE WATER TUES...CROSSING THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATER WEDS-THURS...RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WHILE NO RECORDS WERE BROKEN THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS DID
COME CLOSE AT ELIZABETH CITY NC.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

          ACTUAL RECORD
LOCATION    LOW    LOW
--------  ------ -------
RIC         26   22/1923
ORF         29   25/1982
SBY         24   18/1923
ECG         26   24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...AJZ/BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAS
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W
TDA...BCMG CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
ALLOW NNW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNG...TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
LATER IN THE DAY. OTWS...DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
HI CLOUDS THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE S/SE
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W
TDA...BCMG CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
ALLOW NNW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNG...TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
LATER IN THE DAY. OTWS...DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
HI CLOUDS THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE S/SE
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W
TDA...BCMG CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
ALLOW NNW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNG...TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
LATER IN THE DAY. OTWS...DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
HI CLOUDS THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE S/SE
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W
TDA...BCMG CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
ALLOW NNW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES THIS MORNG...TO SHIFT TO THE S/SW
LATER IN THE DAY. OTWS...DRY WX EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
HI CLOUDS THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE S/SE
TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN NOW DECOUPLING EVIDENCED BY CALM CONDITIONS.
MEANWHILE...A GUSTY NW WIND PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS OF 330AM WITH LKU SHOWING A
TEMPERATURE OF 18 AT 315AM. FARTHER E...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE LOW
20S. SEE THE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALONG WITH A LIGHT
WIND. MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO LOW 50S
OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC DESPITE FULL SUN. THESE VALUES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW THE SEASONAL MEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A DECENT BAND OF UVM SLIDING NW-SE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09-18Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAIN VERY LIMITED BELOW 850MB. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY (40-50%) FOR WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT
TO A LIGHT QPF EVENT (~0.10IN OR LESS).

TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST E (LOW 30S) WHERE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. FARTHER W...LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S...BUT SURFACE WET-BULBS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD INCLUDE A MIX OF
-RA/IP. THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT...SO HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AVERAGING FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE MID 60S INLAND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N BY AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF 20-25% POPS (FOR -SHRA) HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND THIS IS MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW TRACK. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY PCPN S OF THE LOW TRACK WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS APPROACHING 70F ON
TUESDAY OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYERED
WSW FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WITH LOW 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...AND LOCALLY COOLER VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNG WITH PRES RISES AND CAA
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED...ENDING
LATER THIS MORNG OVER THE BAY...THEN OVER THE BAY/SOUND...AND
FINALLY OVER CSTL WTRS MIDDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLO 5FT. IMPROVING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS THE HI CENTERS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE BAY
AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER.
HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
CONDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5
FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS MON
NIGHT-TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE
TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS NIGHT. WINDS
STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290152
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290152
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290152
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. FEW CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND
6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING ENDS. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282246
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282246
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282246
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282246
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC
OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A
DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE
VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE
CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD
VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY FRI...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10 KT LATE
SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL SLY
SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE
BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...




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