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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050121
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
821 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY MODERATING...MILDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MADE SOME UPDATES TO POPS THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION
SOUTH OF THE HIGHER POPS TO KEEP ALL BUT NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP TENDING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH 03Z WITH FIRST
WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENE ACRS THE CWA (WITH PRECIP
STAYING NORTH OF THE SFC LOW). THE PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER WRN VA/WV
LOOKS POISED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AREAS AFTER 03Z...AND SHIFT
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 04-06Z...THIS AS MAIN SFC LOW OVER
THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BEGINS TO DEEPEN. ALSO ADDED FOG ACRS THE NORTH
WHERE OBS ARE INDICATING VSBYS FROM 2SM DOWN TO 1/4SM IN SPOTS.
EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS
INCREASE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH (COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL VA FOR A FEW HRS AS
WELL).

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE MID SOUTH/LWR OHIO VALLEY THAT SEEMS TO HAVE PHASED WITH
ANOTHER, MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE WV PANHANDLE
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. WEAK FORCING HAS GENERALLY KEPT
PRECIP AT BAY THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE CAD WEDGE WAS ABLE TO BE FULLY
ERODED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA, TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY AS
EXPECTED INTO THE U60S/L70S. POPS REMAIN 30-40% FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THOUGH WILL DEPICT
GRADUAL RAMP UP OF POPS IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AS FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
SLOWLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING,
AND HAVE USED A GFS/NAM BLENDED SOLUTION FOR TIMING IN THE NEAR
TERM. STILL EXPECTING INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SW TO
NE ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST
OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DRY AIR LINGERING BETWEEN
600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM OF -RA) OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IN PLACE FROM THE MID
MISS VLY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
DAY THU AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME
THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE
IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH
THU NIGHT, TRIGGERING THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS
THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTN THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THAT THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR LESS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEING HOISTED ALONG OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE RIC METRO AREA, THE PIEDMONT AND THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG AND
WILLIAMSBURG LINE.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA COUNTIES. GIVEN THAT ANY IMPACTS WOULD COME
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA, HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED HWO MENTION
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THU EVENING,
HENCE DRAGGING ALL WINTER HEADLINES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NGT/FRI
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS ~-8C
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S...POSSIBLY
UPPER INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND SUN...BUT GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED
TOWARD THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...COLD FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS AND FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDS AT SBY AND PHF ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTERMITTENT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS THE
TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MVFR/IFR CIGS BECOME SOLIDLY IFR/LIFR TOWARD MORNING AS
RAIN DEVELOPS. RAIN MIXES WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH THE CHANGE OCCURRING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. TWO TO FOUR INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY WITH AN INCH OR LESS AT
THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND VFR
RETURNS. GOOD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL DROP ACRS THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG INTO THU
MORNG...AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY.
AS THE FRNT PUSHES SE OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE
OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI MORNG AND INTO
THE AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
OVR SRN CSTL WTRS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HI ENUF TO ISSUE
A GALE WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZNS EXCEPT THE LWR JAMES
OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WAVES
OVER THE CHES BAY WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS
BLDNG TO 6-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-080>086-090-
     099.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-063-064-074>076.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE MID SOUTH/LWR OHIO VALLEY THAT SEEMS TO HAVE PHASED WITH
ANOTHER, MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE WV PANHANDLE
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. WEAK FORCING HAS GENERALLY KEPT
PRECIP AT BAY THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE CAD WEDGE WAS ABLE TO BE FULLY
ERODED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA, TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY AS
EXPECTED INTO THE U60S/L70S. POPS REMAIN 30-40% FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THOUGH WILL DEPICT
GRADUAL RAMP UP OF POPS IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AS FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
SLOWLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING,
AND HAVE USED A GFS/NAM BLENDED SOLUTION FOR TIMING IN THE NEAR
TERM. STILL EXPECTING INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SW TO
NE ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST
OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DRY AIR LINGERING BETWEEN
600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM OF -RA) OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IN PLACE FROM THE MID
MISS VLY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
DAY THU AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME
THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE
IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH
THU NIGHT, TRIGGERING THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS
THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTN THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THAT THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR LESS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEING HOISTED ALONG OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE RIC METRO AREA, THE PIEDMONT AND THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG AND
WILLIAMSBURG LINE.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA COUNTIES. GIVEN THAT ANY IMPACTS WOULD COME
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA, HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED HWO MENTION
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THU EVENING,
HENCE DRAGGING ALL WINTER HEADLINES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NGT/FRI
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS ~-8C
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S...POSSIBLY
UPPER INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND SUN...BUT GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED
TOWARD THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR SRN
VA TO NE NC IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...MVFR-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BKN-OVC CIGS WITH DECKS
AROUND 1500 FT AGL OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA...AS WELL AS
SE VA. IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE ERN SHORE THANKS TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4
MILES. ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE OBSERVED OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WINDS
GENERALLY S-SW AOB 10 KT NORTH AND 10-15 KT NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ERN SHORE...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER BACK TO LATE TODAY AND
THEN BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING. POST FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SE VA/NE NC BTWN 06 AND 09Z. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...BUT BY EARLY THURS MORNING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE THE CAA CHANGES THE RAIN OVER TO SLEET THURS MORNING
AND SNOW BY THURS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT
THRU THURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL DROP ACRS THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG INTO THU
MORNG...AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY.
AS THE FRNT PUSHES SE OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE
OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI MORNG AND INTO
THE AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
OVR SRN CSTL WTRS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HI ENUF TO ISSUE
A GALE WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZNS EXCEPT THE LWR JAMES
OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WAVES
OVER THE CHES BAY WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS
BLDNG TO 6-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-080>086-090-
     099.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-063-064-074>076.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE MID SOUTH/LWR OHIO VALLEY THAT SEEMS TO HAVE PHASED WITH
ANOTHER, MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE WV PANHANDLE
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. WEAK FORCING HAS GENERALLY KEPT
PRECIP AT BAY THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE CAD WEDGE WAS ABLE TO BE FULLY
ERODED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA, TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY AS
EXPECTED INTO THE U60S/L70S. POPS REMAIN 30-40% FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THOUGH WILL DEPICT
GRADUAL RAMP UP OF POPS IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AS FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
SLOWLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING,
AND HAVE USED A GFS/NAM BLENDED SOLUTION FOR TIMING IN THE NEAR
TERM. STILL EXPECTING INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SW TO
NE ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST
OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DRY AIR LINGERING BETWEEN
600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM OF -RA) OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IN PLACE FROM THE MID
MISS VLY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
DAY THU AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME
THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE
IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH
THU NIGHT, TRIGGERING THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS
THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTN THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THAT THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR LESS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEING HOISTED ALONG OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE RIC METRO AREA, THE PIEDMONT AND THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG AND
WILLIAMSBURG LINE.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA COUNTIES. GIVEN THAT ANY IMPACTS WOULD COME
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA, HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED HWO MENTION
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THU EVENING,
HENCE DRAGGING ALL WINTER HEADLINES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NGT/FRI
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS ~-8C
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S...POSSIBLY
UPPER INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND SUN...BUT GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED
TOWARD THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR SRN
VA TO NE NC IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...MVFR-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BKN-OVC CIGS WITH DECKS
AROUND 1500 FT AGL OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA...AS WELL AS
SE VA. IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE ERN SHORE THANKS TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4
MILES. ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE OBSERVED OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WINDS
GENERALLY S-SW AOB 10 KT NORTH AND 10-15 KT NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ERN SHORE...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER BACK TO LATE TODAY AND
THEN BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING. POST FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SE VA/NE NC BTWN 06 AND 09Z. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...BUT BY EARLY THURS MORNING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE THE CAA CHANGES THE RAIN OVER TO SLEET THURS MORNING
AND SNOW BY THURS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT
THRU THURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL DROP ACRS THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG INTO THU
MORNG...AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY.
AS THE FRNT PUSHES SE OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE
OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI MORNG AND INTO
THE AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
OVR SRN CSTL WTRS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HI ENUF TO ISSUE
A GALE WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZNS EXCEPT THE LWR JAMES
OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WAVES
OVER THE CHES BAY WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS
BLDNG TO 6-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-080>086-090-
     099.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-063-064-074>076.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE MID SOUTH/LWR OHIO VALLEY THAT SEEMS TO HAVE PHASED WITH
ANOTHER, MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE WV PANHANDLE
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. WEAK FORCING HAS GENERALLY KEPT
PRECIP AT BAY THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE CAD WEDGE WAS ABLE TO BE FULLY
ERODED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA, TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY AS
EXPECTED INTO THE U60S/L70S. POPS REMAIN 30-40% FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THOUGH WILL DEPICT
GRADUAL RAMP UP OF POPS IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AS FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
SLOWLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING,
AND HAVE USED A GFS/NAM BLENDED SOLUTION FOR TIMING IN THE NEAR
TERM. STILL EXPECTING INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SW TO
NE ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST
OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DRY AIR LINGERING BETWEEN
600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM OF -RA) OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IN PLACE FROM THE MID
MISS VLY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
DAY THU AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME
THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE
IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH
THU NIGHT, TRIGGERING THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS
THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTN THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THAT THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR LESS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEING HOISTED ALONG OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE RIC METRO AREA, THE PIEDMONT AND THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG AND
WILLIAMSBURG LINE.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA COUNTIES. GIVEN THAT ANY IMPACTS WOULD COME
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA, HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED HWO MENTION
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THU EVENING,
HENCE DRAGGING ALL WINTER HEADLINES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NGT/FRI
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS ~-8C
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S...POSSIBLY
UPPER INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND SUN...BUT GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED
TOWARD THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR SRN
VA TO NE NC IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...MVFR-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BKN-OVC CIGS WITH DECKS
AROUND 1500 FT AGL OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA...AS WELL AS
SE VA. IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE ERN SHORE THANKS TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4
MILES. ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE OBSERVED OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WINDS
GENERALLY S-SW AOB 10 KT NORTH AND 10-15 KT NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ERN SHORE...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER BACK TO LATE TODAY AND
THEN BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING. POST FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SE VA/NE NC BTWN 06 AND 09Z. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...BUT BY EARLY THURS MORNING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE THE CAA CHANGES THE RAIN OVER TO SLEET THURS MORNING
AND SNOW BY THURS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT
THRU THURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT WILL DROP ACRS THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG INTO THU
MORNG...AS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY.
AS THE FRNT PUSHES SE OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE
OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI MORNG AND INTO
THE AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
OVR SRN CSTL WTRS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HI ENUF TO ISSUE
A GALE WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZNS EXCEPT THE LWR JAMES
OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WAVES
OVER THE CHES BAY WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS
BLDNG TO 6-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-080>086-090-
     099.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-063-064-074>076.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE MID SOUTH/LWR OHIO VALLEY THAT SEEMS TO HAVE PHASED WITH
ANOTHER, MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE WV PANHANDLE
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. WEAK FORCING HAS GENERALLY KEPT
PRECIP AT BAY THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE CAD WEDGE WAS ABLE TO BE FULLY
ERODED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA, TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY AS
EXPECTED INTO THE U60S/L70S. POPS REMAIN 30-40% FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THOUGH WILL DEPICT
GRADUAL RAMP UP OF POPS IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AS FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
SLOWLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING,
AND HAVE USED A GFS/NAM BLENDED SOLUTION FOR TIMING IN THE NEAR
TERM. STILL EXPECTING INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SW TO
NE ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST
OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DRY AIR LINGERING BETWEEN
600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM OF -RA) OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IN PLACE FROM THE MID
MISS VLY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
DAY THU AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME
THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE
IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH
THU NIGHT, TRIGGERING THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS
THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTN THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THAT THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR LESS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEING HOISTED ALONG OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE RIC METRO AREA, THE PIEDMONT AND THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG AND
WILLIAMSBURG LINE.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA COUNTIES. GIVEN THAT ANY IMPACTS WOULD COME
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA, HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED HWO MENTION
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THU EVENING,
HENCE DRAGGING ALL WINTER HEADLINES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NGT/FRI
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS ~-8C
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S...POSSIBLY
UPPER INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND SUN...BUT GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED
TOWARD THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR SRN
VA TO NE NC IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...MVFR-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BKN-OVC CIGS WITH DECKS
AROUND 1500 FT AGL OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA...AS WELL AS
SE VA. IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE ERN SHORE THANKS TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4
MILES. ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE OBSERVED OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WINDS
GENERALLY S-SW AOB 10 KT NORTH AND 10-15 KT NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ERN SHORE...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER BACK TO LATE TODAY AND
THEN BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING. POST FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SE VA/NE NC BTWN 06 AND 09Z. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...BUT BY EARLY THURS MORNING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE THE CAA CHANGES THE RAIN OVER TO SLEET THURS MORNING
AND SNOW BY THURS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT
THRU THURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES NWD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
BAY...ERN VA RIVES AND COASTAL WATERS TO CHINCOTEAGUE AS WAA
OVERSPREADS COLD WATERS. WAA WILL WANE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG HEADLINES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SW WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS PUSH
OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT EXCEPT IN THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SE SWELL HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE SCA HEADLINES SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT FOR
TODAY...AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5 FT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-080>086-090-
     099.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-063-064-074>076.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/SAM












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 042050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE MID SOUTH/LWR OHIO VALLEY THAT SEEMS TO HAVE PHASED WITH
ANOTHER, MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE WV PANHANDLE
INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. WEAK FORCING HAS GENERALLY KEPT
PRECIP AT BAY THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE CAD WEDGE WAS ABLE TO BE FULLY
ERODED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA, TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED NICELY AS
EXPECTED INTO THE U60S/L70S. POPS REMAIN 30-40% FOR SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THOUGH WILL DEPICT
GRADUAL RAMP UP OF POPS IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AS FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
SLOWLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING,
AND HAVE USED A GFS/NAM BLENDED SOLUTION FOR TIMING IN THE NEAR
TERM. STILL EXPECTING INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SW TO
NE ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST
OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DRY AIR LINGERING BETWEEN
600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM OF -RA) OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IN PLACE FROM THE MID
MISS VLY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
DAY THU AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME
THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE
IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH
THU NIGHT, TRIGGERING THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS
THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTN THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE
COAST. OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH
LOCAL THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THAT THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT
INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE
`WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF
3-5" OF WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO
TAPPAHANNOCK AND SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3"
FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC
SUBURBS AND REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY
1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR LESS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS BEING HOISTED ALONG OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH A TIER OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE RIC METRO AREA, THE PIEDMONT AND THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG AND
WILLIAMSBURG LINE.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA COUNTIES. GIVEN THAT ANY IMPACTS WOULD COME
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS AREA, HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED HWO MENTION
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING
ENSUES W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THU EVENING,
HENCE DRAGGING ALL WINTER HEADLINES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NGT/FRI
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPS ~-8C
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S...POSSIBLY
UPPER INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. COLD FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
SWLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND SUN...BUT GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED
TOWARD THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR SRN
VA TO NE NC IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...MVFR-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BKN-OVC CIGS WITH DECKS
AROUND 1500 FT AGL OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA...AS WELL AS
SE VA. IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE ERN SHORE THANKS TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4
MILES. ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE OBSERVED OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WINDS
GENERALLY S-SW AOB 10 KT NORTH AND 10-15 KT NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ERN SHORE...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER BACK TO LATE TODAY AND
THEN BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING. POST FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SE VA/NE NC BTWN 06 AND 09Z. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...BUT BY EARLY THURS MORNING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE THE CAA CHANGES THE RAIN OVER TO SLEET THURS MORNING
AND SNOW BY THURS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT
THRU THURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES NWD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
BAY...ERN VA RIVES AND COASTAL WATERS TO CHINCOTEAGUE AS WAA
OVERSPREADS COLD WATERS. WAA WILL WANE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG HEADLINES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SW WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS PUSH
OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT EXCEPT IN THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SE SWELL HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE SCA HEADLINES SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT FOR
TODAY...AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5 FT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-080>086-090-
     099.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-063-064-074>076.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/SAM











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
202 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
WICOMICO/DORCHESTER COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GOING FORECAST...OUTLINED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
STORM HEADLINES IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY WATCH OVER THESE AREAS.
WILL MAKE ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS THIS AFTN AS 12Z DATA
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SENT 706 AM EST...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG
EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
THAT TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR SRN
VA TO NE NC IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...MVFR-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BKN-OVC CIGS WITH DECKS
AROUND 1500 FT AGL OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA...AS WELL AS
SE VA. IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE ERN SHORE THANKS TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4
MILES. ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE OBSERVED OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WINDS
GENERALLY S-SW AOB 10 KT NORTH AND 10-15 KT NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ERN SHORE...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER BACK TO LATE TODAY AND
THEN BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING. POST FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SE VA/NE NC BTWN 06 AND 09Z. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...BUT BY EARLY THURS MORNING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE THE CAA CHANGES THE RAIN OVER TO SLEET THURS MORNING
AND SNOW BY THURS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT
THRU THURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES NWD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
BAY...ERN VA RIVES AND COASTAL WATERS TO CHINCOTEAGUE AS WAA
OVERSPREADS COLD WATERS. WAA WILL WANE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG HEADLINES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SW WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS PUSH
OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT EXCEPT IN THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SE SWELL HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE SCA HEADLINES SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT FOR
TODAY...AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5 FT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 AM EST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021-022.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
202 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
WICOMICO/DORCHESTER COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GOING FORECAST...OUTLINED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
STORM HEADLINES IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY WATCH OVER THESE AREAS.
WILL MAKE ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS THIS AFTN AS 12Z DATA
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SENT 706 AM EST...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG
EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
THAT TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR SRN
VA TO NE NC IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...MVFR-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BKN-OVC CIGS WITH DECKS
AROUND 1500 FT AGL OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA...AS WELL AS
SE VA. IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE ERN SHORE THANKS TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4
MILES. ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE OBSERVED OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WINDS
GENERALLY S-SW AOB 10 KT NORTH AND 10-15 KT NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ERN SHORE...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER BACK TO LATE TODAY AND
THEN BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING. POST FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SE VA/NE NC BTWN 06 AND 09Z. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...BUT BY EARLY THURS MORNING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE THE CAA CHANGES THE RAIN OVER TO SLEET THURS MORNING
AND SNOW BY THURS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT
THRU THURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES NWD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
BAY...ERN VA RIVES AND COASTAL WATERS TO CHINCOTEAGUE AS WAA
OVERSPREADS COLD WATERS. WAA WILL WANE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG HEADLINES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SW WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS PUSH
OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT EXCEPT IN THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SE SWELL HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE SCA HEADLINES SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT FOR
TODAY...AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5 FT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 AM EST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021-022.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
202 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
WICOMICO/DORCHESTER COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GOING FORECAST...OUTLINED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
STORM HEADLINES IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY WATCH OVER THESE AREAS.
WILL MAKE ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS THIS AFTN AS 12Z DATA
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SENT 706 AM EST...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG
EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
THAT TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MORNING LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR SRN
VA TO NE NC IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...MVFR-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BKN-OVC CIGS WITH DECKS
AROUND 1500 FT AGL OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA...AS WELL AS
SE VA. IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE ERN SHORE THANKS TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY 2-4
MILES. ONLY LIGHT DRIZZLE OBSERVED OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WINDS
GENERALLY S-SW AOB 10 KT NORTH AND 10-15 KT NE NC.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE ERN SHORE...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER BACK TO LATE TODAY AND
THEN BACK TO IFR THIS EVENING. POST FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING RAIN
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SE VA/NE NC BTWN 06 AND 09Z. PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN TONIGHT...BUT BY EARLY THURS MORNING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE THE CAA CHANGES THE RAIN OVER TO SLEET THURS MORNING
AND SNOW BY THURS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM 3-5 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT
THRU THURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES NWD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
BAY...ERN VA RIVES AND COASTAL WATERS TO CHINCOTEAGUE AS WAA
OVERSPREADS COLD WATERS. WAA WILL WANE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG HEADLINES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SW WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS PUSH
OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT EXCEPT IN THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SE SWELL HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE SCA HEADLINES SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT FOR
TODAY...AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5 FT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 AM EST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021-022.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
WICOMICO/DORCHESTER COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GOING FORECAST...OUTLINED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
STORM HEADLINES IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY WATCH OVER THESE AREAS.
WILL MAKE ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS THIS AFTN AS 12Z DATA
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SENT 706 AM EST...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG
EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
THAT TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRNT IN THE VICINITY AND VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE CHANCE OF
-RA HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNG BUT THERE IS STILL SOME AREAS OF
-DZ. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TDA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT IFR/MVFR IS STILL PSBL. THE COLD
FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO TNGT...WITH RAIN AND
LIFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY THU...THE PCPN BECOMES SNOW
NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES MAINLY SNOW
THU EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 IN ON AVG...WITH PSBLY MORE AT KSBY. A
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES NWD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
BAY...ERN VA RIVES AND COASTAL WATERS TO CHINCOTEAGUE AS WAA
OVERSPREADS COLD WATERS. WAA WILL WANE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG HEADLINES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SW WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS PUSH
OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT EXCEPT IN THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SE SWELL HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE SCA HEADLINES SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT FOR
TODAY...AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5 FT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MDZ021-022.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
WICOMICO/DORCHESTER COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GOING FORECAST...OUTLINED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
STORM HEADLINES IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY WATCH OVER THESE AREAS.
WILL MAKE ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS THIS AFTN AS 12Z DATA
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SENT 706 AM EST...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG
EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
THAT TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRNT IN THE VICINITY AND VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE CHANCE OF
-RA HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNG BUT THERE IS STILL SOME AREAS OF
-DZ. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TDA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT IFR/MVFR IS STILL PSBL. THE COLD
FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO TNGT...WITH RAIN AND
LIFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY THU...THE PCPN BECOMES SNOW
NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES MAINLY SNOW
THU EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 IN ON AVG...WITH PSBLY MORE AT KSBY. A
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES NWD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
BAY...ERN VA RIVES AND COASTAL WATERS TO CHINCOTEAGUE AS WAA
OVERSPREADS COLD WATERS. WAA WILL WANE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG HEADLINES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. SW WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS PUSH
OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT EXCEPT IN THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE SE SWELL HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SCA CONDITIONS. HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE SCA HEADLINES SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT FOR
TODAY...AS SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5 FT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MDZ021-022.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
WICOMICO/DORCHESTER COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GOING FORECAST...OUTLINED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
STORM HEADLINES IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY WATCH OVER THESE AREAS.
WILL MAKE ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS THIS AFTN AS 12Z DATA
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SENT 706 AM EST...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG
EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
THAT TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRNT IN THE VICINITY AND VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE CHANCE OF
-RA HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNG BUT THERE IS STILL SOME AREAS OF
-DZ. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TDA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT IFR/MVFR IS STILL PSBL. THE COLD
FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO TNGT...WITH RAIN AND
LIFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY THU...THE PCPN BECOMES SNOW
NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES MAINLY SNOW
THU EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 IN ON AVG...WITH PSBLY MORE AT KSBY. A
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MDZ021-022.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
WICOMICO/DORCHESTER COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GOING FORECAST...OUTLINED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
STORM HEADLINES IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY WATCH OVER THESE AREAS.
WILL MAKE ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS THIS AFTN AS 12Z DATA
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SENT 706 AM EST...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG
EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
THAT TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRNT IN THE VICINITY AND VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE CHANCE OF
-RA HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNG BUT THERE IS STILL SOME AREAS OF
-DZ. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TDA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT IFR/MVFR IS STILL PSBL. THE COLD
FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO TNGT...WITH RAIN AND
LIFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY THU...THE PCPN BECOMES SNOW
NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES MAINLY SNOW
THU EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 IN ON AVG...WITH PSBLY MORE AT KSBY. A
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MDZ021-022.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
WICOMICO/DORCHESTER COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GOING FORECAST...OUTLINED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
STORM HEADLINES IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY WATCH OVER THESE AREAS.
WILL MAKE ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS THIS AFTN AS 12Z DATA
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SENT 706 AM EST...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG
EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
THAT TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRNT IN THE VICINITY AND VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE CHANCE OF
-RA HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNG BUT THERE IS STILL SOME AREAS OF
-DZ. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TDA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT IFR/MVFR IS STILL PSBL. THE COLD
FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO TNGT...WITH RAIN AND
LIFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY THU...THE PCPN BECOMES SNOW
NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES MAINLY SNOW
THU EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 IN ON AVG...WITH PSBLY MORE AT KSBY. A
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MDZ021-022.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WITH
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCH OVER
WICOMICO/DORCHESTER COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE GOING FORECAST...OUTLINED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
STORM HEADLINES IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY WATCH OVER THESE AREAS.
WILL MAKE ADVISORY/WARNING DECISIONS THIS AFTN AS 12Z DATA
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SENT 706 AM EST...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG
EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
THAT TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRNT IN THE VICINITY AND VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE CHANCE OF
-RA HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNG BUT THERE IS STILL SOME AREAS OF
-DZ. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TDA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT IFR/MVFR IS STILL PSBL. THE COLD
FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO TNGT...WITH RAIN AND
LIFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY THU...THE PCPN BECOMES SNOW
NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES MAINLY SNOW
THU EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 IN ON AVG...WITH PSBLY MORE AT KSBY. A
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR MDZ021-022.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>638-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041206
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC EARLY
TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH
CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHALLENGING
TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS STAY IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL PORTIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THAT
TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRNT IN THE VICINITY AND VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE CHANCE OF
-RA HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNG BUT THERE IS STILL SOME AREAS OF
-DZ. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TDA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT IFR/MVFR IS STILL PSBL. THE COLD
FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO TNGT...WITH RAIN AND
LIFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY THU...THE PCPN BECOMES SNOW
NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES MAINLY SNOW
THU EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 IN ON AVG...WITH PSBLY MORE AT KSBY. A
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ632>634-637-638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041206
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC EARLY
TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH
CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST...AND IS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY. STRATUS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CHALLENGING
TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS STAY IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL PORTIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THAT
TAPERS TO 10-20% ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRNT IN THE VICINITY AND VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE CHANCE OF
-RA HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNG BUT THERE IS STILL SOME AREAS OF
-DZ. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TDA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT IFR/MVFR IS STILL PSBL. THE COLD
FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO TNGT...WITH RAIN AND
LIFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY THU...THE PCPN BECOMES SNOW
NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES MAINLY SNOW
THU EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 IN ON AVG...WITH PSBLY MORE AT KSBY. A
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ632>634-637-638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041128
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC EARLY
TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH
CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LINGERING OVER THE
NRN MID-ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. ONE BATCH OF RA HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF RA FROM THE NRN DELMARVA BACK ACROSS
NRN VA AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL SKIRT NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH OTHER AREAS GENERALLY RAIN-FREE. STRATUS
WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS STAY
IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRNT IN THE VICINITY AND VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE CHANCE OF
-RA HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNG BUT THERE IS STILL SOME AREAS OF
-DZ. SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TDA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT IFR/MVFR IS STILL PSBL. THE COLD
FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO TNGT...WITH RAIN AND
LIFR/IFR CONDS EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY THU...THE PCPN BECOMES SNOW
NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES MAINLY SNOW
THU EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 IN ON AVG...WITH PSBLY MORE AT KSBY. A
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THU. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ632>634-637-638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040918
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
418 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC EARLY
TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH
CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LINGERING OVER THE
NRN MID-ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. ONE BATCH OF RA HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF RA FROM THE NRN DELMARVA BACK ACROSS
NRN VA AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL SKIRT NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH OTHER AREAS GENERALLY RAIN-FREE. STRATUS
WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS STAY
IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS ERN WV. A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS OH AND KY. THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED LATER TODAY
INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN IN THE TAFS
COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
AT SBY THROUGHOUT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AND SW TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ASIDE FROM
SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY
BECOMES MIXED PCPN OVER NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN
BECOMES MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND
SBY AND AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040918
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
418 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC EARLY
TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH
CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LINGERING OVER THE
NRN MID-ATLANTIC WITH A RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE LEE
OF THE MOUNTAINS. ONE BATCH OF RA HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF RA FROM THE NRN DELMARVA BACK ACROSS
NRN VA AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL SKIRT NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH OTHER AREAS GENERALLY RAIN-FREE. STRATUS
WILL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING...WITH AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
CHALLENGING TODAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT FAR NRN PORTIONS STAY
IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SRN PORTIONS. CENTRAL
PORTIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A SPREAD OF AT LEAST 10-15F DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DROPS INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TRACKS NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE AREA FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S BY THU AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR LINGERING BETWEEN 600-400MB TONIGHT...SO ANY PCPN (IN THE FORM
OF -RA) WILL BE LIGHT. A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET IS PRESENTLY
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.
THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THU AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY LATER THU MORNING
INTO THU AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL BE IDEALIZED AND TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
WINTRY PCPN FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT IS NOT UNTIL 21Z THU TO 00Z FRI THAT SUB 1540M 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES ARRIVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY
THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. OVERALL IT
APPEARS THAT SLR VALUES WILL BE LOW (PERHAPS 5:1-8:1) GIVEN THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL BE `WARM` DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A NARROW BAND OF 3-4" FROM LOUISA COUNTY TO DORCHESTER COUNTY
BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" IS
FORECAST FROM THE RIC METRO DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH 1" OR
LESS FARTHER S. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN/IP WITH ANY ICE ACCUM ONLY TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH
ACROSS THE FAR N AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THIS IS A LATER THIRD
PERIOD EVENT...SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS NW...TO LOW
20S SE. HIGHS FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30-35 FRI UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS ERN WV. A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS OH AND KY. THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED LATER TODAY
INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN IN THE TAFS
COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
AT SBY THROUGHOUT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AND SW TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ASIDE FROM
SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY
BECOMES MIXED PCPN OVER NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN
BECOMES MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND
SBY AND AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA WITH S/SW FLOW CONTINUING OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNG
OVER THE LWR BAY DUE TO A STRONG LLJ...BUT WAA AND COLD WATERS WILL
CAUSE A SHARP INVERSION THAT SHOULD KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO ~15
KT THERE. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED VSBYS AOB 1 MI THRU THE MIDDAY HRS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY MOIST LO LEVELS. THE FRNT SLOWLY DROPS THRU
THE AREA LATE TDA INTO TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRNT. AS THE FRNT FINALLY PUSHES S OF THE AREA TNGT...SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVR THE WTRS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NGT AS
WELL SO EXTENDED THE HEADLINES INTO THE 4TH PERIOD. WINDS MAY COME
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OVR SRN CSTL WTRS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH/WARNG ATTM. ALSO KEPT ALL RIVER ZONES EXCEPT
THE LWR JAMES OUT OF THE ADVSRY FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WAVES OVER THE BAY UP TO 4-5 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP
TO 7-8 FT. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS IN FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND LEADING
TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040641
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AMTS GENLY LESS THAN 0.10" OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL
HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS
NEAR THE SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER
50S. AS FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH
VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THINKING IS THAT SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET
MIX WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO LESS THAN 4" ALL AREAS. EXPECT
AT LEAST LGT- MODERATE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND
N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT (AS
MUCH AS 3-4" POSSIBLE FAR NORTH)...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER
FAR SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU
EVENING). DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE THU EVENING OVER EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THESE AREAS...1-2".

ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE
PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY
LATE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS ERN WV. A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS OH AND KY. THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED LATER TODAY
INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN IN THE TAFS
COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
AT SBY THROUGHOUT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AND SW TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ASIDE FROM
SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY
BECOMES MIXED PCPN OVER NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN
BECOMES MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND
SBY AND AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040641
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AMTS GENLY LESS THAN 0.10" OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL
HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS
NEAR THE SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER
50S. AS FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH
VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THINKING IS THAT SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET
MIX WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO LESS THAN 4" ALL AREAS. EXPECT
AT LEAST LGT- MODERATE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND
N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT (AS
MUCH AS 3-4" POSSIBLE FAR NORTH)...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER
FAR SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU
EVENING). DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE THU EVENING OVER EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THESE AREAS...1-2".

ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE
PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY
LATE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS ERN WV. A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS OH AND KY. THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED LATER TODAY
INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN IN THE TAFS
COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
AT SBY THROUGHOUT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AND SW TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ASIDE FROM
SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY
BECOMES MIXED PCPN OVER NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN
BECOMES MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND
SBY AND AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040641
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AMTS GENLY LESS THAN 0.10" OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL
HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS
NEAR THE SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER
50S. AS FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH
VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THINKING IS THAT SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET
MIX WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO LESS THAN 4" ALL AREAS. EXPECT
AT LEAST LGT- MODERATE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND
N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT (AS
MUCH AS 3-4" POSSIBLE FAR NORTH)...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER
FAR SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU
EVENING). DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE THU EVENING OVER EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THESE AREAS...1-2".

ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE
PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY
LATE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS ERN WV. A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS OH AND KY. THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED LATER TODAY
INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN IN THE TAFS
COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
AT SBY THROUGHOUT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AND SW TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ASIDE FROM
SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY
BECOMES MIXED PCPN OVER NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN
BECOMES MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND
SBY AND AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040641
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AMTS GENLY LESS THAN 0.10" OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL
HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS
NEAR THE SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER
50S. AS FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH
VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THINKING IS THAT SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET
MIX WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO LESS THAN 4" ALL AREAS. EXPECT
AT LEAST LGT- MODERATE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND
N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT (AS
MUCH AS 3-4" POSSIBLE FAR NORTH)...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER
FAR SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU
EVENING). DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE THU EVENING OVER EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THESE AREAS...1-2".

ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE
PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY
LATE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS ERN WV. A COLD FRONT FROM A LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS OH AND KY. THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED LATER TODAY
INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN IN THE TAFS
COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
AT SBY THROUGHOUT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SW
OVERNIGHT AND SW TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ASIDE FROM
SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY
BECOMES MIXED PCPN OVER NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN
BECOMES MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND
SBY AND AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040400
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AMTS GENLY LESS THAN 0.10" OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL
HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS
NEAR THE SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER
50S. AS FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH
VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THINKING IS THAT SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET
MIX WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO LESS THAN 4" ALL AREAS. EXPECT
AT LEAST LGT- MODERATE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND
N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT (AS
MUCH AS 3-4" POSSIBLE FAR NORTH)...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER
FAR SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU
EVENING). DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE THU EVENING OVER EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THESE AREAS...1-2".

ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE
PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY
LATE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS WV. A COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WRN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED
ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

TUESDAY EVENING HAD AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS. MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO IFR DURING
THE FIRST SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN
IN THE TAFS COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS AT SBY THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY BECOMES MIXED PCPN NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES
MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND SBY AND
AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040400
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AMTS GENLY LESS THAN 0.10" OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL
HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS
NEAR THE SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER
50S. AS FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH
VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THINKING IS THAT SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET
MIX WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO LESS THAN 4" ALL AREAS. EXPECT
AT LEAST LGT- MODERATE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND
N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT (AS
MUCH AS 3-4" POSSIBLE FAR NORTH)...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER
FAR SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU
EVENING). DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE THU EVENING OVER EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THESE AREAS...1-2".

ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE
PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY
LATE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS WV. A COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WRN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED
ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

TUESDAY EVENING HAD AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS. MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO IFR DURING
THE FIRST SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN
IN THE TAFS COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS AT SBY THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY BECOMES MIXED PCPN NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES
MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND SBY AND
AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040400
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AMTS GENLY LESS THAN 0.10" OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL
HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS
NEAR THE SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER
50S. AS FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH
VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THINKING IS THAT SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET
MIX WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO LESS THAN 4" ALL AREAS. EXPECT
AT LEAST LGT- MODERATE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND
N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT (AS
MUCH AS 3-4" POSSIBLE FAR NORTH)...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER
FAR SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU
EVENING). DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE THU EVENING OVER EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THESE AREAS...1-2".

ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE
PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY
LATE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS WV. A COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WRN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED
ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

TUESDAY EVENING HAD AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS. MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO IFR DURING
THE FIRST SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN
IN THE TAFS COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS AT SBY THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY BECOMES MIXED PCPN NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES
MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND SBY AND
AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040400
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AMTS GENLY LESS THAN 0.10" OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL
HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS
NEAR THE SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER
50S. AS FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH
VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THINKING IS THAT SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET
MIX WILL KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO LESS THAN 4" ALL AREAS. EXPECT
AT LEAST LGT- MODERATE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND
N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT (AS
MUCH AS 3-4" POSSIBLE FAR NORTH)...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER
FAR SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU
EVENING). DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE THU EVENING OVER EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC...COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THESE AREAS...1-2".

ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE
PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
STEADY OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY
LATE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS WV. A COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WRN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED
ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

TUESDAY EVENING HAD AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS. MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO IFR DURING
THE FIRST SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN
IN THE TAFS COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS AT SBY THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY BECOMES MIXED PCPN NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES
MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND SBY AND
AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040216
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
916 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH CHC (40-50%) TO LOW-END LIKELY (60%) POPS FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN. LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR
NE NC TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL HOLDING
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS NEAR THE
SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS
DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT-MODERATE SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU EVENING). ALNG WITH
THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR
30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY
OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY LATE
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS WV. A COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WRN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED
ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

TUESDAY EVENING HAD AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS. MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO IFR DURING
THE FIRST SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN
IN THE TAFS COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS AT SBY THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY BECOMES MIXED PCPN NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES
MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND SBY AND
AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040216
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
916 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH CHC (40-50%) TO LOW-END LIKELY (60%) POPS FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN. LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR
NE NC TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL HOLDING
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS NEAR THE
SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS
DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT-MODERATE SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU EVENING). ALNG WITH
THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR
30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY
OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY LATE
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS WV. A COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WRN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED
ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

TUESDAY EVENING HAD AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS. MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO IFR DURING
THE FIRST SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN
IN THE TAFS COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS AT SBY THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY BECOMES MIXED PCPN NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES
MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND SBY AND
AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040216
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
916 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS _985 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE...PARTICULARLY AT GSO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 30S
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA. LOOKS
LIKE INVERSION WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS EVEN WITH A 5-10 KT SW SFC WIND. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALONG
WITH CHC (40-50%) TO LOW-END LIKELY (60%) POPS FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN. LOWERED TEMPS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR
NE NC TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. WHILE TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THINK THE RISE WILL BE VERY GRADUAL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (LAMP
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERIFYING SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM THIS EVENING
AND LOOKS TO WARM THE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TOO RAPIDLY). THUS...SLOWED
THE WARM-UP THROUGH 12Z SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH READINGS STILL HOLDING
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH 12Z WELL INLAND AS AREAS NEAR THE
SE VA AND NE NC COAST RISE THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS
FOR FOG...THE SW WIND SHOULD TEND TO KEEP DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS
DOWN TO 1/4SM OR LESS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD...BUT EXPECT AREAS
OF FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM TO BECOME COMMON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N (WHERE SKIES
REMAIN OVC ALL DAY)...TO THE LWR 70S S/SE WHERE SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT-MODERATE SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT...WITH GENLY AN INCH OR LESS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NE NC (BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET HERE THU EVENING). ALNG WITH
THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR
30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY
OR FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S N TO THE LOWER-MID 30S S BY LATE
AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS WV. A COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WRN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED
ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

TUESDAY EVENING HAD AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS. MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO IFR DURING
THE FIRST SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN
IN THE TAFS COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS AT SBY THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY BECOMES MIXED PCPN NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES
MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND SBY AND
AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N...TO THE
LWR 70S S/SE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT. ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S
FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS WV. A COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WRN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED
ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

TUESDAY EVENING HAD AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS. MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO IFR DURING
THE FIRST SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN
IN THE TAFS COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS AT SBY THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY BECOMES MIXED PCPN NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES
MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND SBY AND
AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N...TO THE
LWR 70S S/SE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT. ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S
FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM
MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR WRN PA AND SNAKING S/SW ACROSS WV. A COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS WRN INDIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BECOME LARGELY WARM SECTORED
ON WEDNESDAY INCLUDING ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY.

TUESDAY EVENING HAD AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK CONTINUING WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS. MOS FORECASTS SUPPORT LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO IFR DURING
THE FIRST SIX HOURS. PCPN HAS BEEN SPARSE AND SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF SHOWERS IS NOT PRESENT. HAVE LIMITED THE PCPN
IN THE TAFS COMPARED WITH WHAT IS IN THE NAM MOS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS AT SBY THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
S/SW OVERNIGHT AND SW ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY UNDER
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY BECOMES MIXED PCPN NRN PORTIONS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...PCPN
BECOMES SNOW NRN PORTIONS AND MIXED PCPN SRN PORTIONS. PCPN BECOMES
MAINLY SNOW THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM THE NW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES RIC AND SBY AND
AROUND AN INCH SE PORTIONS. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N...TO THE
LWR 70S S/SE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT. ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S
FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED THRU THU NGT...EXPECT VARIABLE WX CONDITIONS WITH VERY MILD
TEMPS ON WED/WED NGT ALONG WITH RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS...THEN MUCH
COLDER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THU/THU NGT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SLEET
AND/OR SNOW. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF FRNTL PASSAGE AND TEMP
PROFILES WITH THE CHANGEOVER FM RAIN TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW.

HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF THE REGION DURING WED...AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SE ACRS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S EXTRM N...TO THE
LWR 70S S/SE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z THU...THEN WAVES
OF LO PRES WILL MOVE NE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFF THE MID ATLC CST
THU INTO THU NGT...AS ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BLDS TWD
THE MS/OH VALLEYS. COMPROMISE OF 12Z GFS/ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES
SHOWS RAIN BECOMES MIXED WITH SLEET...THEN CHANGES TO SNOW/SLEET
THEN ENDING AS SNOW FM NNW TO SE ACRS THE FA...FM THU MORNG INTO
THU EVENG. STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS...AND AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AT LEAST LGT SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALNG AND N OF A FARMVILLE TO PETERSBURG TO
MELFA LINE BY EARLY THU NGT. ALNG WITH THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY
PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 30S N...TO THE LWR/MID 40S
FAR S/SE. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR THIS AFTN...AS WEAK
UPR AIR ENERGY WAS MOVNG EWRD ACRS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
SKY EVERYWHERE WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S LATE
THIS AFTN. WINDS WERE SE OR S ARND 5 MPH. ACTUAL WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING LO LVL MOIST AND BETTER VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIFT THRU
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENG INTO WED MORNG. MAINLY HAVE LIKELY POPS
(60-70%) ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION...WITH CHC POPS (30-50%)
ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RISE
OVRNGT...AS WINDS TURN MORE SSW AND INCREASE. RDGS SHOULD RISE
AT LEAST INTO THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE UPPER FLOW
THRU THE EXTENDED...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING/BLOCKING OVER THE WRN
CONUS/ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...COLD/DRY 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAYS COLD FRONT LOCATES
OFF THE COAST...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. H85 TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND -8C FRI (~-1 STD DEV)...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN DEPICTED 24
HRS AGO. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER
20S-LOW 30S COASTAL AREAS. AIRMASS MODIFIES FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE
COLD/DRY AIR RETREATS NWD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
SAT...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-
MID 40S COASTAL AREAS. SKY AVG MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUN...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S COASTAL AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OUT
WEST...WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING SPLIT/BLOCKY
FLOW AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE DESERT SW/BAJA. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NOW THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRY SUN NIGHT-EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MATCHING THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...SPLIT FLOW
CONTINUES RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT OVER
THE GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NWD AS SRN STREAM ENERGY
APPROACHES...BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON
AND TUES) CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW-UPPER
40S COASTAL AREAS THANKS TO COLD WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LIGHT E-SE WINDS
AOB 10 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
LLJ INCREASES TO 50+KT TONIGHT...BUT WAA AND COLD WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SHARP INVERSION OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE WATER. THUS...SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS OF 20
KT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. COLD FRONT SLOWLY
CROSSES THE WATER NW TO SE WEDS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER WEDS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FLOW BECOMES NLY POST FRONTAL...BUT DECREASES TO AROUND
10-15 KT AS CAA LAGS BEHIND. FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS LATE WEDS
NIGHT...WITH CAA SURGE ARRIVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATER THURS MORNING...PERSISTING THRU
THURS NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATING LOW END GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST GRADIENT. SEAS BUILD TO
4-7 FT (UP TO 8 FT SRN COASTAL WATERS) THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/BMD









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN OVERCAST DECK AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL PERSISTS THIS AFTN AS
LIGHT NE WINDS START TO BECOME MORE ELY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 03/2100Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MORE
STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. IFR
CIGS OF 500-1000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BEGINS
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE CIGS MAY BREAK UP
NICELY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE
TRENDING WARMER SLIGHTLY LONGER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET FROM NW TO SE AS THU
PROGRESSES AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THU AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/BMD










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNG...HI PRES WAS CNTRD RIGHT ALONG THE CST. FLOW
ALOFT IS GENERALLY FM THE W...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROF OVER
THE WRN CONUS. TEMPS WERE SLOWLY CLIMBING THRU THE 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES OVR THE AKQ CWA...WITH DWPTS RANGING FM THE MID TEENS TO
THE UPR 20S. RDR SHOWED ONLY VRY LGT MIXED PCPN OR RAIN OVR THE
MTNS OF WEST VA AND SW VA. CNTR OF HI PRES WILL PUSH OFFSHR THIS
AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. A CLOUDY SKY WILL
LIMIT TEMP RISES THIS AFTN...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 40S OVR NE NC. BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED MID/LATE AFTN...WITH BEST PCPN CHCS (50-60%) FOR MAINLY
LGT RAIN ACRS NRN AND WRN AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 16-20Z
AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THRU EARLY THIS AFTN.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY
YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS
AFTN/EVENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER D.C. THIS MORNING. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
WRN CONUS. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH HAS IN TURN KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF
TOO SHARPLY. CURRENTLY HAVE UPR 20S/LOW 30S IN PLACE...WITH SOME
MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. WITH DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE FA UNTIL AFTER 15Z...HAVE LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z...EXPECT
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) IN THE FAR NW AROUND 15Z. CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THRU THE MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMP RISES. BETTER COVERAGE OF
PCPN IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 15-20Z AS
TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY YESTERDAY...SO
WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY AS IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS AFTN/EVE. HIGH
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LATE IN THE DAY...RANGING FROM THE M/U30S NW-CENTRAL
LOCATIONS TO LOW 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030922
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
422 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER D.C. THIS MORNING. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
WRN CONUS. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING WHICH HAS IN TURN KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF
TOO SHARPLY. CURRENTLY HAVE UPR 20S/LOW 30S IN PLACE...WITH SOME
MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. WITH DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE FA UNTIL AFTER 15Z...HAVE LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z...EXPECT
SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) IN THE FAR NW AROUND 15Z. CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW
LEVEL CAD REMAINS OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THRU THE MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMP RISES. BETTER COVERAGE OF
PCPN IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OVR FAR NW AREAS BETWEEN 15-20Z AS
TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH/SURPASS 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND A WARM DAY YESTERDAY...SO
WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY AS IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
OTHERWISE...P-TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN OVR THE REGION THIS AFTN/EVE. HIGH
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LATE IN THE DAY...RANGING FROM THE M/U30S NW-CENTRAL
LOCATIONS TO LOW 40S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING
TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE MID/UPR
40S TO MID 50S SE.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...HOWEVER
A GFS/ECMWF BLEND LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-70%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE LOW/MID 40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO
A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH THE
TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE CHANGE
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
10-15KT NNE WIND TO BECOME SE AOB 10KT BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN SCA CONDITIONS
GIVEN WAA OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND/SEAS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERALL...EXPECT A SSW WIND ~15KT FOR THE BAY
AND A 15-20KT FOR THE OCEAN ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS/2-3FT WAVES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SLOWLY
DROPS TO A POSITION NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAA COMMENCES THURSDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS 1040MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25KT...AND 4-7FT
SEAS (HIGHEST S) AND 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION
TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE
CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION
TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE
CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION
TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE
CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1256 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NNE WIND DUE TO 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
PA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ECG...WHICH WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 5KFT
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z.
CIGS LOWER TO 4-5KFT THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A LIGHT ESE WIND.
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
THE CHC OF RA INCREASES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RA
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION
TO A MIX AND EVENTUALLY SN SHOULD BEGIN AT SBY AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AT RIC CLOSER TO 12Z. FARTHER SE...THE
CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...A GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030305
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030305
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1033 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE WNW...WELL OUT AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACRS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS/BKN CIGS IN NC AS WELL. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACRS
THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER...WHILE GENLY KEEPING MINS UNTOUCHED
FARTHER N/NE WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MINS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S OVER NE NC/FAR
SOUTHERN VA...TO THE LOWER 20S FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE MD ERN
SHORE. LATEST 00Z NAM12 SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ENTERING SW ZONES BY 12Z...BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE VIRGA
OVER THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SO NO CHC FOR PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
713 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SCT HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. CLOUD BASES LOWER WITH PCPN DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY.
HAVE PCPN DEVELOP AT RIC AT 19Z AND ORF/PHF BY 22Z...MATCHING CLOSE
TO LAVMOS. HELD ECG OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS
WILL BE PSBL TOWARD EVENING AND THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE RIC TAF.

OUTLOOK...RAIN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING TURNING TO MIXED PCPN AND LATER SNOW ON
THURSDAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS PCPN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NLY...BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND
AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS. THIS AS WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FT ALOFT
RANGE FROM 30-35KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HAVE
DROPPED SCA HEADLINES ALL WATER EXPECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER AS BETTER FETCH WILL RESULT IN 4-5 FT SEAS
TONIGHT. HEADLINES RUN THRU LATE TONIGHT. ~1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATER TONIGHT...SLIDING OFFSHORE TUES. FLOW BECOMES
SELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AOB 15 KT. WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT
OVER THE WATER LATE TUES NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SWLY
FLOW INCREASES LATE TUES NIGHT...BUT SO DOES WAA OVER VERY COLD
WATER. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAYBE ONLY A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE TUES NIGHT-EARLY WEDS MORNING IN THE BAY. SEAS
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT LATE TUES THRU WEDS...BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDS NIGHT AOB 4 FT. FRONT IS SLOW TO CROSS THE WATER
WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. CAA SURGES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDS
NIGHT...CONTINUING THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A NLY WIND. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS)
THURS...SUBSIDING FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM





























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM





























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM






























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RATHER NICE EARLY MARCH AFTN ACRS THE FA. HAS TURNED OUT P/MSUNNY
ACRS THE FA...W/ TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (INTO THE
M/U40S NE TO THE M50S SW). SFC HI PRES WILL BE BUILDING OVR THE
MTNS THIS EVE...THEN BECOME CENTERED OVR THE FA BY LT TNGT.
RMNG MNLY SKC THIS EVE...THEN THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORMS
TO THE W BEGINS TO SPREAD CLDNS INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS MNLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HI PRES SLOLY EXITS TO THE E ON TUE...BUT LO LVL CAD
RMNS OVR THE FA. CLDNS WILL CONT TO INCRS TUE MRNG LIMITING TEMP
RISE. SOME LGT PCPN MAY BREAKOUT...ESP FAR WNW AREAS...DURING THE
MIDDAY HRS...THEN BETTER COVERAGE OF PCPN ACRS FA XPCD BY MID/LT
AFTN. MDL SOUNDINGS CONT TO HINT AT PTNTL FOR BRIEF PD OF FZRA OVR
FAR NNW AREAS AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
CONFIDENCE RMNS LO ATTM...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX
ADVISORY. OTRW...P-TYPE TO BE RA OVR THE RGN TUE AFTN/EVE. HI
TEMPS TO BE REACHED LT IN THE DAY...RANGING FM THE M/U30S NW-CNTRL
LOCATIONS TO L40S SE.

WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE FA TUE NGT. BEST MOISTURE AND
UVM ACRS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF FA...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS...W/
WITH CHC POPS LIMITED TO SRN VA/NE NC. BULK OF THE RA LIFTS TO NRN
PORTION BY LT AT NGT. LO TEMPS LIKELY ARND 00Z/04 WITH RISING TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS BY 12Z/04 WED RISE INTO THE U40S- M50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRONG SSW FLOW.
THERE RMN TIMING ISSUES W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE NNW...AS
12Z/02 NAM ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z/02 GFS. AGAIN...THE
12Z/02 ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
(40-60%) BY AFTN ACRS NRN TIER OF FA...W/ SLGT CHC TO CHC (20-40%)
TO THE S. FOR NOW...LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF T ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC...SINCE IT APRS MOST OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO W/ AND BEHIND THE
FNT. HI TEMPS FM THE U50S/L60S N TO L70S IN FAR SE VA/NE NC.

JUST ONE YEAR AGO...MARCH 2ND-3RD...WENT FM 60S TO L70S (THE 2ND)
TO A FEW INCHES OF SN (ON THE 3RD). THIS MAY OCCUR AGN THIS WK
(WED-THU).

FCST CHALLENGES CONT WED NGT THROUGH THU AS CDFNT SETTLES SSE
THROUGH THE FA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ARCTIC SFC HI PRES BUILDS TWD
THE MS/OH VLYS. WILL LEAN TWD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF COLDER SFC
AIR FM THE NNW (GFS/ECMWF) BY LT WED NGT AND CONTG ON THU. THE
MDLS EACH HINT AT WK SFC LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NC AS S/W ALOFT
(IN FAST SWLY FLO) IS SHEARED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE RGN. ALL
THIS LEADS TO A TRANSITION (WRT P-TYPE) LT WED/THU. RA...BECOMES
MIXED W/ IP-CHANGING TO SN/IP THEN ENDING AS SN FM NNW TO SE ACRS
THE FA (LASTLY ACRS NE NC BY MID OR LT AFTN THU). TIMING THOSE
TRANSITIONS AT THIS POINT VERY DIFFICULT...THOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT
A LEAST LGT SN ACCUMS FOR AREAS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER BEFORE THE
DAY ENDS THU (T-2 INCHES S...1-4 INCHES N (HIGHEST PTNTTLY FM
RIC-SBY)). ALONG W/ THE TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN...GUSTY NNE WNDS
WILL BE PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM ARND
30F N TO THE L40S FAR S. TEMPS THU STEADY OR FALLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED IN WAKE OF THURS COLD FRONT...BUT
MODERATING TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FRONT PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. SRN PORTION PUSHES SWD OVER THE GULF
STATES/NRN GULF...STALLING IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. ENDED CHANCE POPS NEAR
THE COAST AT MIDNIGHT...WITH DRYING/CLEARING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRI...RESULTING
IN ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. H85
TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -12C (-2 STD DEV)...WITH THICKNESSES
YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI
NIGHT WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW HELPING MODERATE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS FRI NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE THANKS
TO DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
AGAIN BE CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW (TROUGHING) OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND RIDGING (RETURN TO A +PNA) OVER THE WRN CONUS. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH A NUMBER OF CANADIAN IMPULSES SET TO IMPACT THE NE
STATES...BUT ALSO SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE BAJA THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS ENERGY...TRANSLATING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT-SUN...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM
ENERGY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIFT THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF NWD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RAIN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHEARS THE
ENERGY...KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD A WPC/ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH
KEEPS THE SRN STREAM WAVE FLAT AND THE LOCAL AREA DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND..WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT FORECAST IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW-MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUN IN THE
MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...SAM






























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1PM...CAA BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN RATHER
LIMITED AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S COASTAL AREAS. WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE WATER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
30-35KT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE COLD WATER HAVE
PREVENTED THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY HAVE BEEN DROPPED. WILL RE-
EVALUATE THE COASTAL WATERS AS 5 FT SEAS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH
GIVEN NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...OUTSIDE OF THE SRN COASTAL ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MAINLY CLEAR OF LOWERED CIGS EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG....WHICH IS QUICKLY SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS THIS HOUR (OR 02/1800Z). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD EARLY
TUE MORNING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY TUE AFTN. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EARLY
WED...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WED
AFTN/EVENING. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL RAIN ON WED...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX AND THEN TO PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM NW TO SE THU AFTN/EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FG GONE NOW...AND DRYING WILL CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
XPCG A TEMP SPIKE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE CAA REALLY TAKES HOLD. POPS
TO BE BLO 14%...AND HI TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
ARND 50F (WELL) INLAND IN CNTRL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021323
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
823 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT CURRITUCK SOUND AND SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM THE VA/NC
BORDER TO CURRITUCK LIGHT. VISIBILITIES HERE ARE STILL AROUND
1 NM BUT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 10 AM MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>062-065>069-079-087.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-635-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021323
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
823 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT CURRITUCK SOUND AND SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM THE VA/NC
BORDER TO CURRITUCK LIGHT. VISIBILITIES HERE ARE STILL AROUND
1 NM BUT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 10 AM MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>062-065>069-079-087.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-635-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...













000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021323
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
823 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT
THEM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-
L40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
INVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS
W OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT CURRITUCK SOUND AND SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM THE VA/NC
BORDER TO CURRITUCK LIGHT. VISIBILITIES HERE ARE STILL AROUND
1 NM BUT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 10 AM MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE
BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS
15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL
SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>062-065>069-079-087.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-635-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021302
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
802 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMOVED MOST CTYS ALG-E OF I 95 FM DENSE FG ADVISORY DUE TO VSBYS
SUFFICIENTLY ABV THRESHOLD. KEPT AREAS FM THE PIEDMONT IN
CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO NE NC WHERE VSBYS IN ENOUGH PLACES AVG 1/2 MI
OR LESS. CDFNT ABT TO ENTER WRN PORTION OF FA...AND WILL SCOUR OUT
THE FG AND LO CLDS THROUGH LT MRNG/MIDDAY AS IT CONTS TO THE CST.
LWRD POPS INLAND...KEEPING 30-40% CHC RA FM ERN VA TO NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>062-065>069-079-087.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVSRY ACROSS ERN SHORE/SERN VA/NE NC AS
VSBYS HAVE DROPPED BLO 1 NM IN MANY LOCATIONS.

PVS DSCN:
COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z.
EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER.

ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING...
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA
THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT
WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS
TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>100.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVSRY ACROSS ERN SHORE/SERN VA/NE NC AS
VSBYS HAVE DROPPED BLO 1 NM IN MANY LOCATIONS.

PVS DSCN:
COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z.
EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER.

ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING...
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA
THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT
WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS
TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE CIGS/VSBY TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE
AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>100.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020951
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
451 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVSRY ACROSS ERN SHORE/SERN VA/NE NC AS
VSBYS HAVE DROPPED BLO 1 NM IN MANY LOCATIONS.

PVS DSCN:
COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z.
EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER.

ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING...
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA
THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT
WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS
TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>100.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020951
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
451 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVSRY ACROSS ERN SHORE/SERN VA/NE NC AS
VSBYS HAVE DROPPED BLO 1 NM IN MANY LOCATIONS.

PVS DSCN:
COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z.
EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER.

ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING...
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA
THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT
WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS
TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>100.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020951
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
451 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVSRY ACROSS ERN SHORE/SERN VA/NE NC AS
VSBYS HAVE DROPPED BLO 1 NM IN MANY LOCATIONS.

PVS DSCN:
COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z.
EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER.

ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING...
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA
THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT
WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS
TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>100.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020951
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
451 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVSRY ACROSS ERN SHORE/SERN VA/NE NC AS
VSBYS HAVE DROPPED BLO 1 NM IN MANY LOCATIONS.

PVS DSCN:
COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING AT OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE 12Z.
EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER.

ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING...
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA
THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT
WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS
TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>100.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD/MPR
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020843
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVSRY MAINLY W OF THE CHES BAY EXCLUDING THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA AND TIDEWATER AREA THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO
BEFORE 12Z. EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER.

ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING...
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA
THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT
WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS
TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>014-
     030>032.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>090-092-093-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020843
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVSRY MAINLY W OF THE CHES BAY EXCLUDING THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA AND TIDEWATER AREA THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO
BEFORE 12Z. EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER.

ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING...
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA
THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT
WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS
TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>014-
     030>032.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>090-092-093-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020843
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVSRY MAINLY W OF THE CHES BAY EXCLUDING THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA AND TIDEWATER AREA THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO
BEFORE 12Z. EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER.

ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING...
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA
THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT
WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS
TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>014-
     030>032.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>090-092-093-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020843
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL W OF FA. IN THE INTERIM...RATHER MOIST AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG HAS
BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVSRY MAINLY W OF THE CHES BAY EXCLUDING THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA AND TIDEWATER AREA THROUGH 10 AM. CURRENT TMPS HOVERING
AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH STEADY OR RISING A DEGREE OR TWO
BEFORE 12Z. EXPECT THE THREAT OF ANY FURTHER ICING IS OVER.

ADDED LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS MORNING...
PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR/RUC DEPICTIONS. LATEST
DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA
THROUGH 18Z OR SO...THEN WNW WINDS RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. UPSHOT
WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS/INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
W-E THIS AFTERNOON. RISING H85 TMPS ALONG WITH THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS
TMPS TO RISE BWTN 40-45 ERN SHORE...45-50 W OF THE CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONITE. XPCT M CLR TO PT
CLDY SKIES TO START OFF THE EVENING. TSCTNS SHOW MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA AFTR MIDNITE. SKIES STAY CLR LONG
ENOUGH FOR TMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. LOWS FROM THE L-M20S ERN
SHORE...M-U20S W OF THE BAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTM APPRCHG
FROM THE W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW WITH A NE INSITU-WEDGE
SETTING UP AT THE SFC AS ANY WRM FRNT SNAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MTS.
DATA INDICATES PCPN DELAYED UNTIL AFTR 15Z WITH PCPN OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY W OF I95 CORRIDOR) BTWN 15-18Z. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ALONG WITH SFC TMPS SUGGEST THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
PSBL AT THE ONSET IN AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF RIC...TRANSITIONING TO
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTRN. BEST VV`S/OMEGA REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA TUE AFTRN WHERE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. GIVEN ANTHR WEDGE
EVENT...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT KEPT THEM
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS FROM THE M-U30S NRN HALF OF FA...U30S-L40S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST
MOISTURE (THUS HIGHEST POPS) SEEN IN THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT 00Z WITH RISING TMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. TMPS BY 12Z WED
RISE INTO THE M40S-L50S.

FA BECOMES "WARM SECTORED" WED DUE TO SURGE OF A STRNG SSW FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SEEN TO CONT PCPN CHCS. WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE PCPN TYPE TO MORE CONVECTIVE RATHER THAN STRATIFORMED. NO
THUNDER EXTECTED AS DATA SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY REMAINING OFFSHORE
IVOF GULF STREAM. ALMOST A SPRING FEEL TO THE DAY AS TMPS FINALLY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE U-U50S ERN SHORE...60S MOST AREAS W
OF THE BAY (70 PSBL ACROSS NE NC).

MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER UP DIFFERENT TIMING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE TIMING WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW
FAST THE COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE FA CHANGING ANY RAIN TO SNOW
AS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
BNDRY. FOR NOW...FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLN SO I SLOWED THE FROPA DOWN
SEVERAL MORE HRS (TO A PSN ACROSS AKQ`S NRN MOST CNTYS AT 12Z THU).
THIS CHANGE REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WED NITES TMPS / WX. THE
WARMER SOLN SUGGESTS PCPN REMAINS MAINLY LIQUID THROUGH 12Z THURS.
LOWS IN THE L-M30S NRN MOST CNTYS...U30S-M40S SOUTH. STRNG CAA
ALONG WITH CRASHING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RESULTS IN RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW N-S THURSDAY ALONG WITH FALLING TMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL WATERS AS
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN 1 NM OR LESS.

SW WINDS 10-15KT WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT (HIGHEST NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS)...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT SCA HEADLINES. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LOWER ALMOST ALL SCA`S BY 7PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WHERE 5FT SEAS WILL
HOLD ON INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE N-NE.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT AND WAVES
BUILD TO 3-4 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A BRIEF LULL IN WIND SPEEDS
IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE REGION
AND TURNS WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>014-
     030>032.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>090-092-093-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020639
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED ALL WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AS PRECIP
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING IN MANY
AREAS SO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER
THIS THROUGH 09Z TO COVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VERIFY TOO WARM COMPARED TO OBS...EARLIER RUNS
HAD BEEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN RISING SEVERAL
DEGREES THIS EVENING WHILE IN REALITY TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST TO
SHOW TEMPS NEARLY STEADY TO RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR DEVELOPING DENSE FOG IN LIGHT SW FLOW OVER WET GROUND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST...VSBYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
1/2SM. UPSTREAM OBS IN NC SHOW MOST LOCATIONS WITH VSBYS IN THE
1/2SM TO 1SM RANGE. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFT 12Z/02 W/ MDLS SHOWING
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO THE LATE MRNG HRS. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS
NR THE CST UNTIL ABT 18Z/02. OTRW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING
COLUMN LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L50S ACRS SCNTRL VA.

SFC HI PRES OVER THE AREA MON NGT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCSRG
W-E AFT MDNGT AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPROACHES FM THE W. LO TEMPS
IN THE 20S...TO NR 30F CSTL SE VA/NE NC.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W TUE.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACRS WRN PORTIONS OF FA BY MID/LT MRNG...THEN
INCRS POPS TO THE CST THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. UNLIKE TODAYS MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT...COLD AIR XPCD TO RETREAT QUICKER. (HWVR...WON`T
RULE OUT LGT MIXED PCPN ACRS NNW CNTYS AT THE ONSET). HI TEMPS TUE
FM AROUND 40F NNW TO M/U40S IN NE NC.

AT LEAST LIKELY POPS (60-70%) FOR RA MOST PLACES BY LATE TUE INTO
TUE NGT AS WARMER SURGE OF AIR ARRIVES ON INCRSG SSW FLO. STARTING
OUT MUCH MILDER ON WED. THERE EXISTS TIMING ISSUES W/ THE NEXT
FRONT WED...W/ THE GFS QUICKER IN ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE NAM. THE
LATEST (12Z/01) ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
IN PUSHING THE FNT INTO AT LEAST NW 1/4 OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTN.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) ALONG AND N OF THE FNT ACRS N AND
CNTRL SECTIONS BY WED AFTN. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY CONDS...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE U50S TO M60S (MAYBE U60S/ARND 70F FAR SE VA/NE NC?).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION WED EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMPLE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
PRESENT. IF ANYTHING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP FIRST BEFORE TEMPS
REALLY START TO DROP OFF TWD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE LAG IN
TEMPERATURE FALLS...PRECIP-TYPE SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN WITH A
SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCEAN CITY TO
RICHMOND TO FARMVILLE AND ALL SNOW IN FAR NW COUNTIES (INCLUDING
DORCHESTER MD). TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK
THU MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 26-31 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF RICHMOND.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT. THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND START
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NW SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM). SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CHES
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW
AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020639
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED ALL WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AS PRECIP
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING IN MANY
AREAS SO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER
THIS THROUGH 09Z TO COVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VERIFY TOO WARM COMPARED TO OBS...EARLIER RUNS
HAD BEEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN RISING SEVERAL
DEGREES THIS EVENING WHILE IN REALITY TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST TO
SHOW TEMPS NEARLY STEADY TO RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR DEVELOPING DENSE FOG IN LIGHT SW FLOW OVER WET GROUND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST...VSBYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
1/2SM. UPSTREAM OBS IN NC SHOW MOST LOCATIONS WITH VSBYS IN THE
1/2SM TO 1SM RANGE. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFT 12Z/02 W/ MDLS SHOWING
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO THE LATE MRNG HRS. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS
NR THE CST UNTIL ABT 18Z/02. OTRW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING
COLUMN LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L50S ACRS SCNTRL VA.

SFC HI PRES OVER THE AREA MON NGT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCSRG
W-E AFT MDNGT AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPROACHES FM THE W. LO TEMPS
IN THE 20S...TO NR 30F CSTL SE VA/NE NC.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W TUE.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACRS WRN PORTIONS OF FA BY MID/LT MRNG...THEN
INCRS POPS TO THE CST THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. UNLIKE TODAYS MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT...COLD AIR XPCD TO RETREAT QUICKER. (HWVR...WON`T
RULE OUT LGT MIXED PCPN ACRS NNW CNTYS AT THE ONSET). HI TEMPS TUE
FM AROUND 40F NNW TO M/U40S IN NE NC.

AT LEAST LIKELY POPS (60-70%) FOR RA MOST PLACES BY LATE TUE INTO
TUE NGT AS WARMER SURGE OF AIR ARRIVES ON INCRSG SSW FLO. STARTING
OUT MUCH MILDER ON WED. THERE EXISTS TIMING ISSUES W/ THE NEXT
FRONT WED...W/ THE GFS QUICKER IN ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE NAM. THE
LATEST (12Z/01) ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
IN PUSHING THE FNT INTO AT LEAST NW 1/4 OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTN.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) ALONG AND N OF THE FNT ACRS N AND
CNTRL SECTIONS BY WED AFTN. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY CONDS...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE U50S TO M60S (MAYBE U60S/ARND 70F FAR SE VA/NE NC?).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION WED EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMPLE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
PRESENT. IF ANYTHING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP FIRST BEFORE TEMPS
REALLY START TO DROP OFF TWD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE LAG IN
TEMPERATURE FALLS...PRECIP-TYPE SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN WITH A
SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCEAN CITY TO
RICHMOND TO FARMVILLE AND ALL SNOW IN FAR NW COUNTIES (INCLUDING
DORCHESTER MD). TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK
THU MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 26-31 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF RICHMOND.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT. THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND START
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NW SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM). SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CHES
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW
AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020639
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED ALL WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AS PRECIP
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING IN MANY
AREAS SO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER
THIS THROUGH 09Z TO COVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VERIFY TOO WARM COMPARED TO OBS...EARLIER RUNS
HAD BEEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN RISING SEVERAL
DEGREES THIS EVENING WHILE IN REALITY TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST TO
SHOW TEMPS NEARLY STEADY TO RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR DEVELOPING DENSE FOG IN LIGHT SW FLOW OVER WET GROUND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST...VSBYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
1/2SM. UPSTREAM OBS IN NC SHOW MOST LOCATIONS WITH VSBYS IN THE
1/2SM TO 1SM RANGE. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFT 12Z/02 W/ MDLS SHOWING
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO THE LATE MRNG HRS. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS
NR THE CST UNTIL ABT 18Z/02. OTRW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING
COLUMN LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L50S ACRS SCNTRL VA.

SFC HI PRES OVER THE AREA MON NGT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCSRG
W-E AFT MDNGT AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPROACHES FM THE W. LO TEMPS
IN THE 20S...TO NR 30F CSTL SE VA/NE NC.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W TUE.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACRS WRN PORTIONS OF FA BY MID/LT MRNG...THEN
INCRS POPS TO THE CST THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. UNLIKE TODAYS MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT...COLD AIR XPCD TO RETREAT QUICKER. (HWVR...WON`T
RULE OUT LGT MIXED PCPN ACRS NNW CNTYS AT THE ONSET). HI TEMPS TUE
FM AROUND 40F NNW TO M/U40S IN NE NC.

AT LEAST LIKELY POPS (60-70%) FOR RA MOST PLACES BY LATE TUE INTO
TUE NGT AS WARMER SURGE OF AIR ARRIVES ON INCRSG SSW FLO. STARTING
OUT MUCH MILDER ON WED. THERE EXISTS TIMING ISSUES W/ THE NEXT
FRONT WED...W/ THE GFS QUICKER IN ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE NAM. THE
LATEST (12Z/01) ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
IN PUSHING THE FNT INTO AT LEAST NW 1/4 OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTN.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) ALONG AND N OF THE FNT ACRS N AND
CNTRL SECTIONS BY WED AFTN. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY CONDS...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE U50S TO M60S (MAYBE U60S/ARND 70F FAR SE VA/NE NC?).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION WED EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMPLE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
PRESENT. IF ANYTHING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP FIRST BEFORE TEMPS
REALLY START TO DROP OFF TWD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE LAG IN
TEMPERATURE FALLS...PRECIP-TYPE SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN WITH A
SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCEAN CITY TO
RICHMOND TO FARMVILLE AND ALL SNOW IN FAR NW COUNTIES (INCLUDING
DORCHESTER MD). TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK
THU MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 26-31 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF RICHMOND.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT. THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND START
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NW SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM). SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CHES
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW
AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020639
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED ALL WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AS PRECIP
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING IN MANY
AREAS SO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER
THIS THROUGH 09Z TO COVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VERIFY TOO WARM COMPARED TO OBS...EARLIER RUNS
HAD BEEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN RISING SEVERAL
DEGREES THIS EVENING WHILE IN REALITY TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST TO
SHOW TEMPS NEARLY STEADY TO RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR DEVELOPING DENSE FOG IN LIGHT SW FLOW OVER WET GROUND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST...VSBYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
1/2SM. UPSTREAM OBS IN NC SHOW MOST LOCATIONS WITH VSBYS IN THE
1/2SM TO 1SM RANGE. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFT 12Z/02 W/ MDLS SHOWING
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO THE LATE MRNG HRS. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS
NR THE CST UNTIL ABT 18Z/02. OTRW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING
COLUMN LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L50S ACRS SCNTRL VA.

SFC HI PRES OVER THE AREA MON NGT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCSRG
W-E AFT MDNGT AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPROACHES FM THE W. LO TEMPS
IN THE 20S...TO NR 30F CSTL SE VA/NE NC.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W TUE.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACRS WRN PORTIONS OF FA BY MID/LT MRNG...THEN
INCRS POPS TO THE CST THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. UNLIKE TODAYS MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT...COLD AIR XPCD TO RETREAT QUICKER. (HWVR...WON`T
RULE OUT LGT MIXED PCPN ACRS NNW CNTYS AT THE ONSET). HI TEMPS TUE
FM AROUND 40F NNW TO M/U40S IN NE NC.

AT LEAST LIKELY POPS (60-70%) FOR RA MOST PLACES BY LATE TUE INTO
TUE NGT AS WARMER SURGE OF AIR ARRIVES ON INCRSG SSW FLO. STARTING
OUT MUCH MILDER ON WED. THERE EXISTS TIMING ISSUES W/ THE NEXT
FRONT WED...W/ THE GFS QUICKER IN ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE NAM. THE
LATEST (12Z/01) ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
IN PUSHING THE FNT INTO AT LEAST NW 1/4 OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTN.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) ALONG AND N OF THE FNT ACRS N AND
CNTRL SECTIONS BY WED AFTN. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY CONDS...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE U50S TO M60S (MAYBE U60S/ARND 70F FAR SE VA/NE NC?).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION WED EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMPLE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
PRESENT. IF ANYTHING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP FIRST BEFORE TEMPS
REALLY START TO DROP OFF TWD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE LAG IN
TEMPERATURE FALLS...PRECIP-TYPE SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN WITH A
SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCEAN CITY TO
RICHMOND TO FARMVILLE AND ALL SNOW IN FAR NW COUNTIES (INCLUDING
DORCHESTER MD). TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK
THU MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 26-31 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF RICHMOND.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12-13Z BEFORE
STARTING TO IMPROVE. PATCHY DENSE FOG (1/2SM OR LESS) WILL ALSO
AFFECT KRIC/SBY/PHF OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACROSS
THE REGION AND OFF THE COAST MID/LATE MORNING...HELPING TO IMPROVE
CIGS/VSBY TO VFR ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT. THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND START
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NW SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM). SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CHES
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW
AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020359
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1059 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED ALL WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AS PRECIP
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING IN MANY
AREAS SO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER
THIS THROUGH 09Z TO COVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VERIFY TOO WARM COMPARED TO OBS...EARLIER RUNS
HAD BEEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN RISING SEVERAL
DEGREES THIS EVENING WHILE IN REALITY TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST TO
SHOW TEMPS NEARLY STEADY TO RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR DEVELOPING DENSE FOG IN LIGHT SW FLOW OVER WET GROUND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST...VSBYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
1/2SM. UPSTREAM OBS IN NC SHOW MOST LOCATIONS WITH VSBYS IN THE
1/2SM TO 1SM RANGE. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFT 12Z/02 W/ MDLS SHOWING
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO THE LATE MRNG HRS. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS
NR THE CST UNTIL ABT 18Z/02. OTRW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING
COLUMN LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L50S ACRS SCNTRL VA.

SFC HI PRES OVER THE AREA MON NGT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCSRG
W-E AFT MDNGT AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPROACHES FM THE W. LO TEMPS
IN THE 20S...TO NR 30F CSTL SE VA/NE NC.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W TUE.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACRS WRN PORTIONS OF FA BY MID/LT MRNG...THEN
INCRS POPS TO THE CST THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. UNLIKE TODAYS MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT...COLD AIR XPCD TO RETREAT QUICKER. (HWVR...WON`T
RULE OUT LGT MIXED PCPN ACRS NNW CNTYS AT THE ONSET). HI TEMPS TUE
FM AROUND 40F NNW TO M/U40S IN NE NC.

AT LEAST LIKELY POPS (60-70%) FOR RA MOST PLACES BY LATE TUE INTO
TUE NGT AS WARMER SURGE OF AIR ARRIVES ON INCRSG SSW FLO. STARTING
OUT MUCH MILDER ON WED. THERE EXISTS TIMING ISSUES W/ THE NEXT
FRONT WED...W/ THE GFS QUICKER IN ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE NAM. THE
LATEST (12Z/01) ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
IN PUSHING THE FNT INTO AT LEAST NW 1/4 OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTN.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) ALONG AND N OF THE FNT ACRS N AND
CNTRL SECTIONS BY WED AFTN. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY CONDS...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE U50S TO M60S (MAYBE U60S/ARND 70F FAR SE VA/NE NC?).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION WED EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMPLE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
PRESENT. IF ANYTHING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP FIRST BEFORE TEMPS
REALLY START TO DROP OFF TWD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE LAG IN
TEMPERATURE FALLS...PRECIP-TYPE SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN WITH A
SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCEAN CITY TO
RICHMOND TO FARMVILLE AND ALL SNOW IN FAR NW COUNTIES (INCLUDING
DORCHESTER MD). TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK
THU MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 26-31 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF RICHMOND.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RDR SHOWED PCPN (MAINLY -RA) MOVNG THRU EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC AND
OVR CNTRL VA PIEDMONT ENE INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR. EXPECT MAINLY
IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES INTO EARLY MON MORNG
(07Z-10Z) AS WINDS TURN TO THE SW 3 TO 9 KT. -DZ POSSIBLE ALSO.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACRS THE REGION AND OFF THE CST DURING
MON MORNG...WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS. HI PRES BLDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER MON MORNG INTO MON NGT...WITH NORTHERLY FLO USHERING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT. THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND START
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NW SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM). SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CHES
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW
AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020359
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1059 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ALLOWED ALL WINTER WX ADVISORY HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AS PRECIP
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING IN MANY
AREAS SO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER
THIS THROUGH 09Z TO COVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VERIFY TOO WARM COMPARED TO OBS...EARLIER RUNS
HAD BEEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN RISING SEVERAL
DEGREES THIS EVENING WHILE IN REALITY TEMPS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST TO
SHOW TEMPS NEARLY STEADY TO RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR DEVELOPING DENSE FOG IN LIGHT SW FLOW OVER WET GROUND. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER 06Z...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST...VSBYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
1/2SM. UPSTREAM OBS IN NC SHOW MOST LOCATIONS WITH VSBYS IN THE
1/2SM TO 1SM RANGE. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST AFT 12Z/02 W/ MDLS SHOWING
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO THE LATE MRNG HRS. HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS
NR THE CST UNTIL ABT 18Z/02. OTRW...WNW WINDS SUPPORT A DRYING
COLUMN LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS W-E THROUGH OUT THE DAY. HI
TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L50S ACRS SCNTRL VA.

SFC HI PRES OVER THE AREA MON NGT...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCSRG
W-E AFT MDNGT AS NEXT SYSTM QUICKLY APPROACHES FM THE W. LO TEMPS
IN THE 20S...TO NR 30F CSTL SE VA/NE NC.

WSW FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE W TUE.
WILL HAVE CHC POPS ACRS WRN PORTIONS OF FA BY MID/LT MRNG...THEN
INCRS POPS TO THE CST THROUGH REST OF THE DAY. UNLIKE TODAYS MIXED
P-TYPE EVENT...COLD AIR XPCD TO RETREAT QUICKER. (HWVR...WON`T
RULE OUT LGT MIXED PCPN ACRS NNW CNTYS AT THE ONSET). HI TEMPS TUE
FM AROUND 40F NNW TO M/U40S IN NE NC.

AT LEAST LIKELY POPS (60-70%) FOR RA MOST PLACES BY LATE TUE INTO
TUE NGT AS WARMER SURGE OF AIR ARRIVES ON INCRSG SSW FLO. STARTING
OUT MUCH MILDER ON WED. THERE EXISTS TIMING ISSUES W/ THE NEXT
FRONT WED...W/ THE GFS QUICKER IN ITS ARRIVAL THAN THE NAM. THE
LATEST (12Z/01) ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
IN PUSHING THE FNT INTO AT LEAST NW 1/4 OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTN.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (50-70%) ALONG AND N OF THE FNT ACRS N AND
CNTRL SECTIONS BY WED AFTN. OTRW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY CONDS...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE U50S TO M60S (MAYBE U60S/ARND 70F FAR SE VA/NE NC?).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION WED EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT DUE TO AMPLE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
PRESENT. IF ANYTHING...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP FIRST BEFORE TEMPS
REALLY START TO DROP OFF TWD THU MORNING. GIVEN THE LAG IN
TEMPERATURE FALLS...PRECIP-TYPE SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN WITH A
SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCEAN CITY TO
RICHMOND TO FARMVILLE AND ALL SNOW IN FAR NW COUNTIES (INCLUDING
DORCHESTER MD). TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK
THU MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 26-31 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF RICHMOND.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THU/THU NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY FORECAST FOR
THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PRECIP THROUGH THU AND THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THU EVENING. A DECENT JET STREAK OF 150-170KT WILL ALSO ENHANCE
LIFTING POTENTIAL AND AID PRECIP-GENERATION. HIGHS ON THU EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS...FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A COLD
AIRMASS RUNNING INTO REMNANTS OF WARMER AIR SE SHOULD RESULT IN
PRECIP BECOMING TO ALL SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SNOW/SLEET TRANSITION ZONE AND ALL RAIN
SE OF THIS CHANGE. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH AND SUSPECT THE
ACTUAL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S FAR SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRI. COOL AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP AREAWIDE HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO MODIFY 850 TEMPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 50S
SUN. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 AND SUN NIGHT IN
THE LOW-MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RDR SHOWED PCPN (MAINLY -RA) MOVNG THRU EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC AND
OVR CNTRL VA PIEDMONT ENE INTO THE LWR MD ERN SHR. EXPECT MAINLY
IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES INTO EARLY MON MORNG
(07Z-10Z) AS WINDS TURN TO THE SW 3 TO 9 KT. -DZ POSSIBLE ALSO.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP ACRS THE REGION AND OFF THE CST DURING
MON MORNG...WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS. HI PRES BLDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER MON MORNG INTO MON NGT...WITH NORTHERLY FLO USHERING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MORE PCPN POSSIBLE TUE AFTN/NGT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT. THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND START
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...STAYING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF NW SURGE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER WAVES/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS (SAVE THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FT OUT AROUND 20 NM). SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CHES
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WINDS BECOME S-SW
AND INCREASE TO SCA SPEEDS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AFTN
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7FT AND
WAVES BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SCA CONDITIONS
DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD/SNOWY END TO FEBRUARY 2015...RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND
NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...AND TO 1906 AT SALISBURY
MD. SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE FOR
FEBRUARY ARE NOTED BELOW:

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

RICHMOND: 31.4 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND
THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.5 F (-10.1 FROM AVG). 3RD COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1934.

SALISBURY: 28.7 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE
COLDEST SINCE 1979.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 2015:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ








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