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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180514
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SFC OBS...DROPPED POPS FOR REST OF
TONIGHT AND ADDED PTCHY FOG TO MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.
SOME MID LVL CLDNS ARND SO XPCT PT CLDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT
OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS. HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO
UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THRU SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER
THROUGH 10Z (6AM)...AS LATEST BOUY DATA SHOWS SEAS SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA
OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15
KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT THRU THU NGT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15
SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE
STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI
PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY
REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM/WRS
MARINE...JDM/TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180514
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SFC OBS...DROPPED POPS FOR REST OF
TONIGHT AND ADDED PTCHY FOG TO MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.
SOME MID LVL CLDNS ARND SO XPCT PT CLDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT
OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS. HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO
UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THRU SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER
THROUGH 10Z (6AM)...AS LATEST BOUY DATA SHOWS SEAS SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA
OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15
KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT THRU THU NGT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15
SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE
STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI
PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY
REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM/WRS
MARINE...JDM/TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180440
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1240 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SFC OBS...DROPPED POPS FOR REST OF
TONIGHT AND ADDED PTCHY FOG TO MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.
SOME MID LVL CLDNS ARND SO XPCT PT CLDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LAST FEW VIS STLT IMAGES
INDICATED CU AND MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT EVERYWHERE BY
NE NC /INCLUDING KECG/. HAVE TAKEN OUT IFR FOG AT KSBY...AS LATEST
GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH ON FOG OCCURRING. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.
HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER
THROUGH 10Z (6AM)...AS LATEST BOUY DATA SHOWS SEAS SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA
OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15
KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT THRU THU NGT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15
SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE
STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI
PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY
REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...JDM/TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180440
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1240 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SFC OBS...DROPPED POPS FOR REST OF
TONIGHT AND ADDED PTCHY FOG TO MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.
SOME MID LVL CLDNS ARND SO XPCT PT CLDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LAST FEW VIS STLT IMAGES
INDICATED CU AND MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT EVERYWHERE BY
NE NC /INCLUDING KECG/. HAVE TAKEN OUT IFR FOG AT KSBY...AS LATEST
GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH ON FOG OCCURRING. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.
HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER
THROUGH 10Z (6AM)...AS LATEST BOUY DATA SHOWS SEAS SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA
OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15
KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT THRU THU NGT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15
SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE
STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI
PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY
REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...JDM/TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180400
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1200 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SFC OBS...DROPPED POPS FOR REST OF
TONIGHT AND ADDED PTCHY FOG TO MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.
SOME MID LVL CLDNS ARND SO XPCT PT CLDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LAST FEW VIS STLT IMAGES
INDICATED CU AND MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT EVERYWHERE BY
NE NC /INCLUDING KECG/. HAVE TAKEN OUT IFR FOG AT KSBY...AS LATEST
GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH ON FOG OCCURRING. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.
HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL ACRS THE SRN 2
COASTAL WATERS ZONES. 44100/44056 HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN AROUND 5
FEET LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR SCA SEA HEIGHTS
THROUGH 05Z. ADDED ANZ656 TO SCA AT 7 PM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SEA
HEIGHT FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE EXPECTATION THAT 5 FOOT SWELL
EXTENDS INTO VA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CHLV2.

4 PM DISCUSSION...NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU
SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST
TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS
EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT TNGT THRU THU NGT. SOME
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO
DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE
BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...TMG/WRS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180400
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1200 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SFC OBS...DROPPED POPS FOR REST OF
TONIGHT AND ADDED PTCHY FOG TO MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.
SOME MID LVL CLDNS ARND SO XPCT PT CLDY SKIES. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LAST FEW VIS STLT IMAGES
INDICATED CU AND MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT EVERYWHERE BY
NE NC /INCLUDING KECG/. HAVE TAKEN OUT IFR FOG AT KSBY...AS LATEST
GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH ON FOG OCCURRING. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.
HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL ACRS THE SRN 2
COASTAL WATERS ZONES. 44100/44056 HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN AROUND 5
FEET LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR SCA SEA HEIGHTS
THROUGH 05Z. ADDED ANZ656 TO SCA AT 7 PM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SEA
HEIGHT FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE EXPECTATION THAT 5 FOOT SWELL
EXTENDS INTO VA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CHLV2.

4 PM DISCUSSION...NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU
SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST
TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS
EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT TNGT THRU THU NGT. SOME
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO
DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE
BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...TMG/WRS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180248
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1048 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 0F 01Z...THE EVENING FORECAST IS GENERALLY GOING WELL. RADAR
INDICATES THAT PCPN HAS DRIED UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS ON
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FROM 30 TO 20 PERCENT AND SHRUNK THE ADJACENT
AREA OF SLGT POPS. STLT AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SKY HAS CLEARED AT
MOST LOCATIONS. PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN AND EXPECT THAT AS A VORT LOBE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR.
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPR 50S TO LWR 60S AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. THE PATCHY FOG EXTENDS
FROM THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK TO THE
PIEDMONT. SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL BE PSBL AT OTHER LOCATIONS BUT
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED PATCHY FOG AREA...MID TO UPR 50S FARTHER TO THE SE
AND AROUND 60 NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND SE COAST.

STILL HAVE A SLGT CHC SHOWERS BEGINNING IN OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES AFT
12Z AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE
FAST BUT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THIS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT
HANDLE THAT PART OF THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LAST FEW VIS STLT IMAGES
INDICATED CU AND MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT EVERYWHERE BY
NE NC /INCLUDING KECG/. HAVE TAKEN OUT IFR FOG AT KSBY...AS LATEST
GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH ON FOG OCCURRING. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.
HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL ACRS THE SRN 2
COASTAL WATERS ZONES. 44100/44056 HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN AROUND 5
FEET LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR SCA SEA HEIGHTS
THROUGH 05Z. ADDED ANZ656 TO SCA AT 7 PM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SEA
HEIGHT FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE EXPECTATION THAT 5 FOOT SWELL
EXTENDS INTO VA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CHLV2.

4 PM DISCUSSION...NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU
SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST
TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS
EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT TNGT THRU THU NGT. SOME
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO
DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE
BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...TMG/WRS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180248
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1048 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS 0F 01Z...THE EVENING FORECAST IS GENERALLY GOING WELL. RADAR
INDICATES THAT PCPN HAS DRIED UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS ON
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FROM 30 TO 20 PERCENT AND SHRUNK THE ADJACENT
AREA OF SLGT POPS. STLT AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SKY HAS CLEARED AT
MOST LOCATIONS. PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN AND EXPECT THAT AS A VORT LOBE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR.
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPR 50S TO LWR 60S AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. THE PATCHY FOG EXTENDS
FROM THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK TO THE
PIEDMONT. SOME SHALLOW FOG WILL BE PSBL AT OTHER LOCATIONS BUT
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED PATCHY FOG AREA...MID TO UPR 50S FARTHER TO THE SE
AND AROUND 60 NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND SE COAST.

STILL HAVE A SLGT CHC SHOWERS BEGINNING IN OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES AFT
12Z AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE
FAST BUT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THIS. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT
HANDLE THAT PART OF THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LAST FEW VIS STLT IMAGES
INDICATED CU AND MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT EVERYWHERE BY
NE NC /INCLUDING KECG/. HAVE TAKEN OUT IFR FOG AT KSBY...AS LATEST
GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH ON FOG OCCURRING. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.
HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL ACRS THE SRN 2
COASTAL WATERS ZONES. 44100/44056 HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN AROUND 5
FEET LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR SCA SEA HEIGHTS
THROUGH 05Z. ADDED ANZ656 TO SCA AT 7 PM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SEA
HEIGHT FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE EXPECTATION THAT 5 FOOT SWELL
EXTENDS INTO VA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CHLV2.

4 PM DISCUSSION...NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU
SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST
TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS
EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT TNGT THRU THU NGT. SOME
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO
DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE
BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...TMG/WRS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172320
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
720 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS...SOME
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BRIEFLY POPPED UP ON RADAR
IN NE NC...BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY. SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC...BUT VISIBLE SAT TRENDS DEPICT SOME ADDED
SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH IN THE SE. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE TRACKING THRU NC ATTM. THIS WAVE
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE TRACKS IN ITS WAKE OVER
SRN VA/NRN NC. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED...WITH
PWATS AOB 1.25 INCHES AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE TONIGHT AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO THE WAVE AND REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH
OF RICHMOND AND TO THE MD ERN SHORE.

TRENDED TOWARD WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
CLOUDS/THICKNESSES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S IN THE SE. A FEW RURAL AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE
LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LAST FEW VIS STLT IMAGES
INDICATED CU AND MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT EVERYWHERE BY
NE NC /INCLUDING KECG/. HAVE TAKEN OUT IFR FOG AT KSBY...AS LATEST
GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH ON FOG OCCURRING. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.
HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL ACRS THE SRN 2
COASTAL WATERS ZONES. 44100/44056 HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN AROUND 5
FEET LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR SCA SEA HEIGHTS
THROUGH 05Z. ADDED ANZ656 TO SCA AT 7 PM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SEA
HEIGHT FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE EXPECTATION THAT 5 FOOT SWELL
EXTENDS INTO VA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CHLV2.

4 PM DISCUSSION...NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU
SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST
TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS
EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT TNGT THRU THU NGT. SOME
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO
DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE
BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...TMG/WRS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172320
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
720 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS...SOME
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BRIEFLY POPPED UP ON RADAR
IN NE NC...BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY. SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC...BUT VISIBLE SAT TRENDS DEPICT SOME ADDED
SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH IN THE SE. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE TRACKING THRU NC ATTM. THIS WAVE
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE TRACKS IN ITS WAKE OVER
SRN VA/NRN NC. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED...WITH
PWATS AOB 1.25 INCHES AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE TONIGHT AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO THE WAVE AND REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH
OF RICHMOND AND TO THE MD ERN SHORE.

TRENDED TOWARD WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
CLOUDS/THICKNESSES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S IN THE SE. A FEW RURAL AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE
LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LAST FEW VIS STLT IMAGES
INDICATED CU AND MID LVL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT EVERYWHERE BY
NE NC /INCLUDING KECG/. HAVE TAKEN OUT IFR FOG AT KSBY...AS LATEST
GUIDANCE LESS BULLISH ON FOG OCCURRING. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS.
HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA FOR LONG PERIOD SWELL ACRS THE SRN 2
COASTAL WATERS ZONES. 44100/44056 HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN AROUND 5
FEET LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NEAR SCA SEA HEIGHTS
THROUGH 05Z. ADDED ANZ656 TO SCA AT 7 PM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SEA
HEIGHT FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE EXPECTATION THAT 5 FOOT SWELL
EXTENDS INTO VA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CHLV2.

4 PM DISCUSSION...NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU
SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST
TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS
EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1
TO 3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT TNGT THRU THU NGT. SOME
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO
DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI
AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE
BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...TMG/WRS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172031
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
431 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS...SOME
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BRIEFLY POPPED UP ON RADAR
IN NE NC...BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY. SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC...BUT VISIBLE SAT TRENDS DEPICT SOME ADDED
SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH IN THE SE. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE TRACKING THRU NC ATTM. THIS WAVE
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE TRACKS IN ITS WAKE OVER
SRN VA/NRN NC. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED...WITH
PWATS AOB 1.25 INCHES AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE TONIGHT AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO THE WAVE AND REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH
OF RICHMOND AND TO THE MD ERN SHORE.

TRENDED TOWARD WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
CLOUDS/THICKNESSES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S IN THE SE. A FEW RURAL AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE
LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SFC LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE STATES AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO REDEVELOP IN NC S-SW OF ALBEMARLE
SOUND AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INVOF THE
VA/NC BORDER. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KFVX-KPTB-KMFV. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH
OF THIS LINE THROUGH TONIGHT AND VARIABLE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH OF IT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT AGL DURING THIS
TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG...WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE CIGS AROUND
2 KFT AGL AFTER 18/0800Z. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE FOGGY/HAZY
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2SM ALSO AFTER
18/0800Z. NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SPEEDS AOB 10 KT THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT
KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN
THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF
HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15
KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT TNGT THRU THU NGT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS
(12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD.
A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT DUE TO
STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3 FT
(POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO
4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172031
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
431 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS...SOME
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BRIEFLY POPPED UP ON RADAR
IN NE NC...BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY. SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC...BUT VISIBLE SAT TRENDS DEPICT SOME ADDED
SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH IN THE SE. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE TRACKING THRU NC ATTM. THIS WAVE
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE TRACKS IN ITS WAKE OVER
SRN VA/NRN NC. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED...WITH
PWATS AOB 1.25 INCHES AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE TONIGHT AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO THE WAVE AND REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH
OF RICHMOND AND TO THE MD ERN SHORE.

TRENDED TOWARD WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
CLOUDS/THICKNESSES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S IN THE SE. A FEW RURAL AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE
LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SFC LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE STATES AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO REDEVELOP IN NC S-SW OF ALBEMARLE
SOUND AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INVOF THE
VA/NC BORDER. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KFVX-KPTB-KMFV. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH
OF THIS LINE THROUGH TONIGHT AND VARIABLE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH OF IT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT AGL DURING THIS
TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG...WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE CIGS AROUND
2 KFT AGL AFTER 18/0800Z. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE FOGGY/HAZY
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2SM ALSO AFTER
18/0800Z. NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SPEEDS AOB 10 KT THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT
KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN
THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF
HI PRES SLIDING OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU THRU SAT. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15
KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT AND SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT TNGT THRU THU NGT. SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELLS
(12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD.
A LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT DUE TO
STRONG HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3 FT
(POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO
4 TO 5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171958
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS...SOME
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BRIEFLY POPPED UP ON RADAR
IN NE NC...BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY. SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC...BUT VISIBLE SAT TRENDS DEPICT SOME ADDED
SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH IN THE SE. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE TRACKING THRU NC ATTM. THIS WAVE
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE TRACKS IN ITS WAKE OVER
SRN VA/NRN NC. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED...WITH
PWATS AOB 1.25 INCHES AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE TONIGHT AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO THE WAVE AND REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH
OF RICHMOND AND TO THE MD ERN SHORE.

TRENDED TOWARD WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
CLOUDS/THICKNESSES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S IN THE SE. A FEW RURAL AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE
LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTRL OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SFC LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE STATES AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO REDEVELOP IN NC S-SW OF ALBEMARLE
SOUND AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INVOF THE
VA/NC BORDER. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KFVX-KPTB-KMFV. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH
OF THIS LINE THROUGH TONIGHT AND VARIABLE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH OF IT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT AGL DURING THIS
TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG...WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE CIGS AROUND
2 KFT AGL AFTER 18/0800Z. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE FOGGY/HAZY
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2SM ALSO AFTER
18/0800Z. NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SPEEDS AOB 10 KT THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT
KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN
THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF
HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND
15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER
PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT
TC EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171958
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS...SOME
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BRIEFLY POPPED UP ON RADAR
IN NE NC...BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY. SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC...BUT VISIBLE SAT TRENDS DEPICT SOME ADDED
SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH IN THE SE. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE TRACKING THRU NC ATTM. THIS WAVE
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE TRACKS IN ITS WAKE OVER
SRN VA/NRN NC. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LIMITED...WITH
PWATS AOB 1.25 INCHES AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE TONIGHT AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THANKS TO THE WAVE AND REMNANT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT NORTH
OF RICHMOND AND TO THE MD ERN SHORE.

TRENDED TOWARD WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT BASED ON
CLOUDS/THICKNESSES...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S IN THE SE. A FEW RURAL AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE
LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND EJECT EWD THURS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION THURS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS ~1.25 INCHES)...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP...ALBEIT STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE...WILL BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO FRI...RIDGING SWWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE FRI...BUT THE SRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. THIS REMNANT TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PRECIP FREE
FRI AND SAT...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND FRI
AND ALONG THE COAST SAT...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ATTM...GENERALLY DUE TO RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTRL OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SFC LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE STATES AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO REDEVELOP IN NC S-SW OF ALBEMARLE
SOUND AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INVOF THE
VA/NC BORDER. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KFVX-KPTB-KMFV. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH
OF THIS LINE THROUGH TONIGHT AND VARIABLE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH OF IT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT AGL DURING THIS
TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG...WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE CIGS AROUND
2 KFT AGL AFTER 18/0800Z. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE FOGGY/HAZY
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2SM ALSO AFTER
18/0800Z. NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SPEEDS AOB 10 KT THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT
KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN
THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF
HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND
15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER
PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT
TC EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD/JDM
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
209 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
AND MORNING RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
SKIES PERSIST OVER THE SE...BUT SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT OVER THE
NRN LOCAL AREA WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK WAVE/VORT
LOBE TRAVERSING NC HAS COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE VA/NE NC. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS AOB 1
INCH)...SO NOT NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN A BRIEF...LOCALIZED
SHOWER. COOL/STABLE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
THUNDER.

FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
WEAK WAVES WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER NC...COMBINING WITH MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THESE SHOWERS WILL
EXTEND...WITH THE NAM BEING THE FARTHEST NORTH INTO TIDEWATER.
BASED ON UNFAVORABLE PLACEMENT IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER
JET STREAK AND WAVES PASSING TO THE SOUTH...TEND TO THINK THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...CLOSEST
TO THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CHANCE
POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CUT BACK SKY COVER OVER CNTRL VA
SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS 4 TO 6 DEGS COOLER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S NW TO UPPER 70S
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONTINUED NE FLOW KEEPS
THE CLDS ARND BUT DATA SUGGESTS BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE SERN COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE M50S-L60S. HIGHS THURS IN THE M-U70S.

OFFSHORE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY
WITH DCRG CLDNS THURS NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S SERN CSTL
AREAS. MSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SFC LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE STATES AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO REDEVELOP IN NC S-SW OF ALBEMARLE
SOUND AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INVOF THE
VA/NC BORDER. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KFVX-KPTB-KMFV. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH
OF THIS LINE THROUGH TONIGHT AND VARIABLE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH OF IT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT AGL DURING THIS
TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG...WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE CIGS AROUND
2 KFT AGL AFTER 18/0800Z. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE FOGGY/HAZY
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2SM ALSO AFTER
18/0800Z. NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SPEEDS AOB 10 KT THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT
KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN
THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF
HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND
15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER
PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT
TC EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
209 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
AND MORNING RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
SKIES PERSIST OVER THE SE...BUT SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT OVER THE
NRN LOCAL AREA WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK WAVE/VORT
LOBE TRAVERSING NC HAS COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE VA/NE NC. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS AOB 1
INCH)...SO NOT NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN A BRIEF...LOCALIZED
SHOWER. COOL/STABLE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
THUNDER.

FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
WEAK WAVES WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER NC...COMBINING WITH MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THESE SHOWERS WILL
EXTEND...WITH THE NAM BEING THE FARTHEST NORTH INTO TIDEWATER.
BASED ON UNFAVORABLE PLACEMENT IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER
JET STREAK AND WAVES PASSING TO THE SOUTH...TEND TO THINK THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...CLOSEST
TO THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CHANCE
POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CUT BACK SKY COVER OVER CNTRL VA
SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS 4 TO 6 DEGS COOLER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S NW TO UPPER 70S
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONTINUED NE FLOW KEEPS
THE CLDS ARND BUT DATA SUGGESTS BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE SERN COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE M50S-L60S. HIGHS THURS IN THE M-U70S.

OFFSHORE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY
WITH DCRG CLDNS THURS NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S SERN CSTL
AREAS. MSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SFC LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE STATES AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO REDEVELOP IN NC S-SW OF ALBEMARLE
SOUND AT THIS HOUR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH INVOF THE
VA/NC BORDER. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KFVX-KPTB-KMFV. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH
OF THIS LINE THROUGH TONIGHT AND VARIABLE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NORTH OF IT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT AGL DURING THIS
TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KECG...WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE CIGS AROUND
2 KFT AGL AFTER 18/0800Z. KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE FOGGY/HAZY
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2SM ALSO AFTER
18/0800Z. NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SPEEDS AOB 10 KT THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW CONTINUING AT
KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN
THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF
HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND
15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER
PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT
TC EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD/JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171437
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1037 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR
AND MORNING RAOB UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICT AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY
SKIES PERSIST OVER THE SE...BUT SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT OVER THE
NRN LOCAL AREA WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK WAVE/VORT
LOBE TRAVERSING NC HAS COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE VA/NE NC. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE (PWATS AOB 1
INCH)...SO NOT NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN A BRIEF...LOCALIZED
SHOWER. COOL/STABLE AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
THUNDER.

FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
WEAK WAVES WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER NC...COMBINING WITH MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THESE SHOWERS WILL
EXTEND...WITH THE NAM BEING THE FARTHEST NORTH INTO TIDEWATER.
BASED ON UNFAVORABLE PLACEMENT IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER
JET STREAK AND WAVES PASSING TO THE SOUTH...TEND TO THINK THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...CLOSEST
TO THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CHANCE
POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE CUT BACK SKY COVER OVER CNTRL VA
SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS 4 TO 6 DEGS COOLER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S NW TO UPPER 70S
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONTINUED NE FLOW KEEPS
THE CLDS ARND BUT DATA SUGGESTS BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE SERN COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE M50S-L60S. HIGHS THURS IN THE M-U70S.

OFFSHORE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY
WITH DCRG CLDNS THURS NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S SERN CSTL
AREAS. MSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED.
SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE
VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN
VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF
HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND
15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER
PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT TC
EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI PRES
WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170724
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
324 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BNDRY NOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH
WEAK HIGH PRS LCTD OVER W VA. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRS WAS ALSO NOTED
IVOF THIS BNDRY EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. MEANWHILE...WEAK MID LVL
ENERGY DRIFTING ACROSS ERN NC / SERN VA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ISLTD
SHWR ACTIVITY ERLY THIS MORNING.

FAVORED THE SREF SOLN WITH THIS PACKAGE AS IT SEEMS TO BE A COMP
BTWN THE WETTER NAM AND DRIER GFS. COMBINATION OF MOIST NE FLOW
AND LOW PRS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL KEEP PLNTY OF CLDS ACROSS
THE AREA (PER TSCTNS) ALONG WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR PCPN. DATA
SUGGESTS BEST CHC FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE ACROSS NE NC
TODAY (LOW CHC POP). ENUF MOISTURE TRYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH TO KEEP
SLGHT CHC POPS (TRACE AMTS) MAINLY ALONG & SOUTH OF RT 460. SKIES
SHUD AVG PT SUNNY NORTH TO MSTLY CLDY SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONTINUED NE FLOW KEEPS
THE CLDS ARND BUT DATA SUGGESTS BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE SERN COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE M50S-L60S. HIGHS THURS IN THE M-U70S.

OFFSHORE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY
WITH DCRG CLDNS THURS NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S SERN CSTL
AREAS. MSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED.
SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE
VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN
VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF
HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND
15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER
PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT TC
EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI PRES
WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170724
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
324 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BNDRY NOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH
WEAK HIGH PRS LCTD OVER W VA. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRS WAS ALSO NOTED
IVOF THIS BNDRY EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. MEANWHILE...WEAK MID LVL
ENERGY DRIFTING ACROSS ERN NC / SERN VA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ISLTD
SHWR ACTIVITY ERLY THIS MORNING.

FAVORED THE SREF SOLN WITH THIS PACKAGE AS IT SEEMS TO BE A COMP
BTWN THE WETTER NAM AND DRIER GFS. COMBINATION OF MOIST NE FLOW
AND LOW PRS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL KEEP PLNTY OF CLDS ACROSS
THE AREA (PER TSCTNS) ALONG WITH LIMITED FORCING FOR PCPN. DATA
SUGGESTS BEST CHC FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE ACROSS NE NC
TODAY (LOW CHC POP). ENUF MOISTURE TRYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH TO KEEP
SLGHT CHC POPS (TRACE AMTS) MAINLY ALONG & SOUTH OF RT 460. SKIES
SHUD AVG PT SUNNY NORTH TO MSTLY CLDY SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONTINUED NE FLOW KEEPS
THE CLDS ARND BUT DATA SUGGESTS BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY SHWRS SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE SERN COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE M50S-L60S. HIGHS THURS IN THE M-U70S.

OFFSHORE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY
WITH DCRG CLDNS THURS NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S XCPT L60S SERN CSTL
AREAS. MSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE M-U70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED.
SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE
VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN
VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF
HI PRES BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND
15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. SOME LONGER
PERIOD SWELL (13-16 SEC) WILL CONTINUE INTO THURS DUE TO DISTANT TC
EDOUARD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI PRES
WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170528
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
128 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. MID-EVENING GOES WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING, WITH REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME SCT CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN
NC JUST SOUTH OF KRDU. AT THE SURFACE, ~1020MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN OH VLY...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE NOTED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHRA OVER CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE PENINSULA IN SOME
SHALLOW CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRAS/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RETAINED INHERITED LOW POPS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING IN
THE GRIDS/DIGITAL DB. SKY COVER SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO
THE LOW/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE
NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS
ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE
COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED.
SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE
VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN
VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES
BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI
AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170528
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
128 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. MID-EVENING GOES WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING, WITH REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME SCT CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN
NC JUST SOUTH OF KRDU. AT THE SURFACE, ~1020MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN OH VLY...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE NOTED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHRA OVER CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE PENINSULA IN SOME
SHALLOW CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRAS/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RETAINED INHERITED LOW POPS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING IN
THE GRIDS/DIGITAL DB. SKY COVER SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO
THE LOW/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE
NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS
ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE
COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT INTO WED.
SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE
VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN
VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES
BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI
AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. MID-EVENING GOES WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING, WITH REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME SCT CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN
NC JUST SOUTH OF KRDU. AT THE SURFACE, ~1020MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN OH VLY...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE NOTED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHRA OVER CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE PENINSULA IN SOME
SHALLOW CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRAS/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RETAINED INHERITED LOW POPS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING IN
THE GRIDS/DIGITAL DB. SKY COVER SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO
THE LOW/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE
NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS
ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE
COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED.
SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE
VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN
VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES
BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI
AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...TMG










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. MID-EVENING GOES WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING, WITH REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SOME SCT CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN
NC JUST SOUTH OF KRDU. AT THE SURFACE, ~1020MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN OH VLY...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE NOTED SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHRA OVER CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE PENINSULA IN SOME
SHALLOW CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. COULD SEE A FEW
SHRAS/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RETAINED INHERITED LOW POPS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING IN
THE GRIDS/DIGITAL DB. SKY COVER SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO
THE LOW/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE
NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS
ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE
COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED.
SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE
VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN
VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES
BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI
AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...TMG











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170042
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
842 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...1022MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
IL...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING THE GREAT SMOKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NC OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD TRIGGER
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SPREAD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. SKY COVER
SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE
NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS
ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE
COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED.
SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE
VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN
VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES
BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI
AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170042
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
842 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...1022MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
IL...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING THE GREAT SMOKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NC OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD TRIGGER
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SPREAD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. SKY COVER
SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE
NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS
ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE
COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED.
SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVC IN SE
VA/NE NC. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR FOR THE MOST PART. GENLY BKN
VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES
BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI
AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
450 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...1022MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
IL...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING THE GREAT SMOKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NC OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD TRIGGER
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SPREAD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. SKY COVER
SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE
NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS
ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE
COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH SCT/BKN CU AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
N/NE. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS EVENING TREND TOWARDS OVC IN SE VA/NE NC AND BKN
FARTHER NORTH. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH.
GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG.

FYI...ISSUES HAVE JUST BEEN CLEARED WITH THE SBY ASOS...SO WILL
GET RID OF THE "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES
BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI
AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
450 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...1022MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
IL...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING THE GREAT SMOKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NC OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD TRIGGER
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SPREAD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. SKY COVER
SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE
NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS
ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE
COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS FOR LATE MON THRU
TUE. MAIN CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI REMAINING OVR THE MID
ATLC STATES THRU MUCH OF SUN. NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM FRI NGT INTO
SAT MORNG...THEN WINDS TURN FM SE TO SSW FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK TO OFF THE SE
CST MON NGT AND TUE...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE GRT LKS AND OH VLY.
WILL HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR THE SE COUNTIES ON TUE.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S SAT MORNG...RANGE
FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...RANGE THRU THE 60S MON
MORNG...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S TUE MORNG. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON...AND GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH SCT/BKN CU AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
N/NE. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS EVENING TREND TOWARDS OVC IN SE VA/NE NC AND BKN
FARTHER NORTH. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH.
GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG.

FYI...ISSUES HAVE JUST BEEN CLEARED WITH THE SBY ASOS...SO WILL
GET RID OF THE "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. N OR NE-E WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TNGT THRU SAT...DUE TO ONE AREA OF HI PRES
BLDNG BY TO THE N AND OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST...FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AREA OF HI PRES BLDNG FM THE GRT LKS EWRD AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS
THRU THE PERIOD...BUT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER (ESPLY GUSTS) FRI
AND FRI NGT. THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BLD TO 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. WINDS TURN TO SE THEN SSW FOR SAT NGT AND SUN...AS HI
PRES WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE W.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OFF THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...1022MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
IL...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING THE GREAT SMOKIES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NC OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD TRIGGER
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SPREAD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC. SKY COVER
SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS EXPECTED...SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A 15-20% POP (30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND) WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE
NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS DRIFTING N FROM ERN NC. FORECAST POPS
ARE SUB 15% THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS OFF THE
COAST. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO LOW 60S SE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH SCT/BKN CU AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
N/NE. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS EVENING TREND TOWARDS OVC IN SE VA/NE NC AND BKN
FARTHER NORTH. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH.
GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG.

FYI...ISSUES HAVE JUST BEEN CLEARED WITH THE SBY ASOS...SO WILL
GET RID OF THE "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE
BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.

DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...
WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED.

AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING
WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD
ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.

WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH
MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK SFC LO WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NRN MDATLC CST BY THIS
AFTN...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING CDFNT E ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE CST. EARLIER -SHRA OVER THE ERN SHORE HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. A SECONDARY WK SFC TROUGH TO CROSS THE FA LATER
TDA...PTNTLLY W/ ISOLD SHRAS (MNLY OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC).
OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY TDA...W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO MNLY WNWLY. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TNGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH
FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD
SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 15-20% POP OVER FAR
SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRAS CREEPING N FM ERN NC
OR WWD FM THE OCN. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO ARND 60F SE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH SCT/BKN CU AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
N/NE. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS EVENING TREND TOWARDS OVC IN SE VA/NE NC AND BKN
FARTHER NORTH. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH.
GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG.

FYI...ISSUES HAVE JUST BEEN CLEARED WITH THE SBY ASOS...SO WILL
GET RID OF THE "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE
BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.

DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...
WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED.

AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING
WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD
ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.

WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH
MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MPR








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK SFC LO WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NRN MDATLC CST BY THIS
AFTN...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING CDFNT E ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE CST. EARLIER -SHRA OVER THE ERN SHORE HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. A SECONDARY WK SFC TROUGH TO CROSS THE FA LATER
TDA...PTNTLLY W/ ISOLD SHRAS (MNLY OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC).
OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY TDA...W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO MNLY WNWLY. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TNGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH
FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD
SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 15-20% POP OVER FAR
SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRAS CREEPING N FM ERN NC
OR WWD FM THE OCN. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO ARND 60F SE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH SCT/BKN CU AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
N/NE. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS EVENING TREND TOWARDS OVC IN SE VA/NE NC AND BKN
FARTHER NORTH. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH.
GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG.

FYI...ISSUES HAVE JUST BEEN CLEARED WITH THE SBY ASOS...SO WILL
GET RID OF THE "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE
BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.

DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...
WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED.

AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING
WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD
ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.

WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH
MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161329
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
929 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK SFC LO WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NRN MDATLC CST BY THIS
AFTN...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING CDFNT E ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE CST. EARLIER -SHRA OVER THE ERN SHORE HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. A SECONDARY WK SFC TROUGH TO CROSS THE FA LATER
TDA...PTNTLLY W/ ISOLD SHRAS (MNLY OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC).
OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY TDA...W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO MNLY WNWLY. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TNGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH
FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD
SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 15-20% POP OVER FAR
SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRAS CREEPING N FM ERN NC
OR WWD FM THE OCN. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO ARND 60F SE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS (SOME IFR IVOF RIC) WILL DSPT INTO A SC CLOUD DECK BTWN
3-5K FT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE BEHIND THE BNDRY LATER TODAY.
FRONT HAS LITTLE MSTR TO WORK WITH EXPECT A DRY FROPA. MID LVLS
DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH LVL MSTR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

FYI...DUE TO LWR CLDS COMING IN AND ISSUES WITH THE SBY ASOS...WENT
AHEAD AND APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE
BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.

DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...
WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED.

AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING
WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD
ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.

WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH
MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161329
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
929 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK SFC LO WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NRN MDATLC CST BY THIS
AFTN...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING CDFNT E ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE CST. EARLIER -SHRA OVER THE ERN SHORE HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. A SECONDARY WK SFC TROUGH TO CROSS THE FA LATER
TDA...PTNTLLY W/ ISOLD SHRAS (MNLY OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC).
OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY TDA...W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO MNLY WNWLY. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TNGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH
FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD
SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 15-20% POP OVER FAR
SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRAS CREEPING N FM ERN NC
OR WWD FM THE OCN. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO ARND 60F SE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS (SOME IFR IVOF RIC) WILL DSPT INTO A SC CLOUD DECK BTWN
3-5K FT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE BEHIND THE BNDRY LATER TODAY.
FRONT HAS LITTLE MSTR TO WORK WITH EXPECT A DRY FROPA. MID LVLS
DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH LVL MSTR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

FYI...DUE TO LWR CLDS COMING IN AND ISSUES WITH THE SBY ASOS...WENT
AHEAD AND APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE
BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.

DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...
WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED.

AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING
WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD
ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.

WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH
MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161036
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK SFC LO WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NRN MDATLC CST BY THIS
AFTN...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING CDFNT E ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE CST. VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF PCPN XPCG THIS MRNG...ESP
ERN PORTIONS. A SECONDARY WK SFC TROUGH TO CROSS THE FA LATER
TDA...PTNTLLY W/ ISOLD SHRAS (MNLY OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC).
OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY TDA...W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO MNLY WNWLY. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TNGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH
FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD
SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 15-20% POP OVER FAR
SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRAS CREEPING N FM ERN NC
OR WWD FM THE OCN. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO ARND 60F SE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS (SOME IFR IVOF RIC) WILL DSPT INTO A SC CLOUD DECK BTWN
3-5K FT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE BEHIND THE BNDRY LATER TODAY.
FRONT HAS LITTLE MSTR TO WORK WITH EXPECT A DRY FROPA. MID LVLS
DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH LVL MSTR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

FYI...DUE TO LWR CLDS COMING IN AND ISSUES WITH THE SBY ASOS...WENT
AHEAD AND APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE
BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.

DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...
WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED.

AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING
WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD
ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.

WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH
MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161036
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK SFC LO WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NRN MDATLC CST BY THIS
AFTN...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING CDFNT E ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE CST. VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF PCPN XPCG THIS MRNG...ESP
ERN PORTIONS. A SECONDARY WK SFC TROUGH TO CROSS THE FA LATER
TDA...PTNTLLY W/ ISOLD SHRAS (MNLY OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC).
OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY TDA...W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO MNLY WNWLY. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TNGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH
FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD
SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 15-20% POP OVER FAR
SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRAS CREEPING N FM ERN NC
OR WWD FM THE OCN. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO ARND 60F SE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS (SOME IFR IVOF RIC) WILL DSPT INTO A SC CLOUD DECK BTWN
3-5K FT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE N THEN NE BEHIND THE BNDRY LATER TODAY.
FRONT HAS LITTLE MSTR TO WORK WITH EXPECT A DRY FROPA. MID LVLS
DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH LVL MSTR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

FYI...DUE TO LWR CLDS COMING IN AND ISSUES WITH THE SBY ASOS...WENT
AHEAD AND APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE
BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.

DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...
WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED.

AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING
WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD
ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.

WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH
MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK SFC LO WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NRN MDATLC CST BY THIS
AFTN...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING CDFNT E ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE CST. VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF PCPN XPCG THIS MRNG...ESP
ERN PORTIONS. A SECONDARY WK SFC TROUGH TO CROSS THE FA LATER
TDA...PTNTLLY W/ ISOLD SHRAS (MNLY OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC).
OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY TDA...W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO MNLY WNWLY. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TNGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH
FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD
SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 15-20% POP OVER FAR
SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRAS CREEPING N FM ERN NC
OR WWD FM THE OCN. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO ARND 60F SE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE BTWN 2-4K FT ALREADY RETURNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.
THUS...EXPECT A MVFR SCT-BKN SC DECK TO OVRSPRD THE RGN NEXT SVRL
HRS. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF MVFR FOG IN SOME LCTNS TOWARDS 12Z.
CDFRNT CROSSES THE RGN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH A WIND SHFT
TO THE N THEN NE. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR SEEN FOR ANY PCPN SO KEPT THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW. MID LVLS DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH
LVL MSTR AFTR 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

FYI...DUE TO LWR CLDS COMING IN AND ISSUES WITH THE SBY ASOS...WENT
AHEAD AND APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE
BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.

DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...
WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED.

AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING
WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD
ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.

WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH
MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR






















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK SFC LO WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NRN MDATLC CST BY THIS
AFTN...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING CDFNT E ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE CST. VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF PCPN XPCG THIS MRNG...ESP
ERN PORTIONS. A SECONDARY WK SFC TROUGH TO CROSS THE FA LATER
TDA...PTNTLLY W/ ISOLD SHRAS (MNLY OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC).
OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY TDA...W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO MNLY WNWLY. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TNGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH
FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD
SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 15-20% POP OVER FAR
SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRAS CREEPING N FM ERN NC
OR WWD FM THE OCN. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO ARND 60F SE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE BTWN 2-4K FT ALREADY RETURNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.
THUS...EXPECT A MVFR SCT-BKN SC DECK TO OVRSPRD THE RGN NEXT SVRL
HRS. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF MVFR FOG IN SOME LCTNS TOWARDS 12Z.
CDFRNT CROSSES THE RGN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH A WIND SHFT
TO THE N THEN NE. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR SEEN FOR ANY PCPN SO KEPT THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW. MID LVLS DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH
LVL MSTR AFTR 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

FYI...DUE TO LWR CLDS COMING IN AND ISSUES WITH THE SBY ASOS...WENT
AHEAD AND APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE
BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.

DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...
WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED.

AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING
WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD
ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.

WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH
MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160537
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID-EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A DAMPENING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. TO THE SOUTH, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS NOTED
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF KSTL AT 00Z...TRAILING BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR SOME LGT
SHRAS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RACES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND
REACH THE ERN SHORE AFTER SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN
20% (BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN
SHORE...WHERE 30% POPS WL BE FORECAST (MAINLY LATE...BETWEEN
09-12Z) AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. SKY CONDITION WILL
AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...CLEARING LATE ACROSS THE WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE BTWN 2-4K FT ALREADY RETURNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.
THUS...EXPECT A MVFR SCT-BKN SC DECK TO OVRSPRD THE RGN NEXT SVRL
HRS. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF MVFR FOG IN SOME LCTNS TOWARDS 12Z.
CDFRNT CROSSES THE RGN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH A WIND SHFT
TO THE N THEN NE. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR SEEN FOR ANY PCPN SO KEPT THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW. MID LVLS DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH
LVL MSTR AFTR 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

FYI...DUE TO LWR CLDS COMING IN AND ISSUES WITH THE SBY ASOS...WENT
AHEAD AND APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC
REGION LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG. NE THRU SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
THIS EVENG...WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR W TUE MORNG...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT FOR LATER TUE MORNG/TUE AFTN. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NE OR E FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FOR TUE NGT
INTO SAT...AS HI PRES BLDS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160537
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID-EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A DAMPENING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. TO THE SOUTH, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS NOTED
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF KSTL AT 00Z...TRAILING BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR SOME LGT
SHRAS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RACES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND
REACH THE ERN SHORE AFTER SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN
20% (BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN
SHORE...WHERE 30% POPS WL BE FORECAST (MAINLY LATE...BETWEEN
09-12Z) AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. SKY CONDITION WILL
AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...CLEARING LATE ACROSS THE WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE BTWN 2-4K FT ALREADY RETURNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.
THUS...EXPECT A MVFR SCT-BKN SC DECK TO OVRSPRD THE RGN NEXT SVRL
HRS. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF MVFR FOG IN SOME LCTNS TOWARDS 12Z.
CDFRNT CROSSES THE RGN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH A WIND SHFT
TO THE N THEN NE. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR SEEN FOR ANY PCPN SO KEPT THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW. MID LVLS DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH
LVL MSTR AFTR 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

FYI...DUE TO LWR CLDS COMING IN AND ISSUES WITH THE SBY ASOS...WENT
AHEAD AND APPENDED "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC
REGION LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG. NE THRU SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
THIS EVENG...WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR W TUE MORNG...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT FOR LATER TUE MORNG/TUE AFTN. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NE OR E FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FOR TUE NGT
INTO SAT...AS HI PRES BLDS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID-EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A DAMPENING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. TO THE SOUTH, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS NOTED
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF KSTL AT 00Z...TRAILING BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR SOME LGT
SHRAS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RACES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND
REACH THE ERN SHORE AFTER SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN
20% (BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN
SHORE...WHERE 30% POPS WL BE FORECAST (MAINLY LATE...BETWEEN
09-12Z) AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. SKY CONDITION WILL
AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...CLEARING LATE ACROSS THE WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE BTWN 2-4K FT ALREADY RETURNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.
THUS...EXPECT A MVFR SCT-BKN SC DECK TO OVRSPRD THE RGN NEXT SVRL
HRS. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF MVFR FOG IN SOME LCTNS TOWARDS 12Z.
CDFRNT CROSSES THE RGN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH A WIND SHFT
TO THE N THEN NE. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR SEEN FOR ANY PCPN SO KEPT THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW. MID LVLS DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH
LVL MSTR AFTR 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC
REGION LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG. NE THRU SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
THIS EVENG...WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR W TUE MORNG...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT FOR LATER TUE MORNG/TUE AFTN. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NE OR E FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FOR TUE NGT
INTO SAT...AS HI PRES BLDS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID-EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A DAMPENING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. TO THE SOUTH, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS NOTED
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF KSTL AT 00Z...TRAILING BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR SOME LGT
SHRAS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RACES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND
REACH THE ERN SHORE AFTER SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN
20% (BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN
SHORE...WHERE 30% POPS WL BE FORECAST (MAINLY LATE...BETWEEN
09-12Z) AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. SKY CONDITION WILL
AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...CLEARING LATE ACROSS THE WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE BTWN 2-4K FT ALREADY RETURNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.
THUS...EXPECT A MVFR SCT-BKN SC DECK TO OVRSPRD THE RGN NEXT SVRL
HRS. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF MVFR FOG IN SOME LCTNS TOWARDS 12Z.
CDFRNT CROSSES THE RGN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH A WIND SHFT
TO THE N THEN NE. LITTLE IF ANY MSTR SEEN FOR ANY PCPN SO KEPT THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW. MID LVLS DRY OUT AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT ONLY HIGH
LVL MSTR AFTR 00Z.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW & CLDY CONDTNS WITH SCT SHWRS PSBL ACROSS NE NC
WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES S.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC
REGION LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG. NE THRU SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
THIS EVENG...WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR W TUE MORNG...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT FOR LATER TUE MORNG/TUE AFTN. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NE OR E FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FOR TUE NGT
INTO SAT...AS HI PRES BLDS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A DAMPENING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. TO THE SOUTH, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS NOTED
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF KSTL AT 00Z...TRAILING BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR SOME LGT
SHRAS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RACES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND
REACH THE ERN SHORE AFTER SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN
20% (BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN
SHORE...WHERE 30% POPS WL BE FORECAST (MAINLY LATE...BETWEEN
09-12Z) AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. SKY CONDITION WILL
AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...CLEARING LATE ACROSS THE WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED
OFF THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS MOISTURE INCREASES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WX IN TAF FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TUE MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
00Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW RETURNS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NC ON WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC
REGION LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG. NE THRU SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
THIS EVENG...WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR W TUE MORNG...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT FOR LATER TUE MORNG/TUE AFTN. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NE OR E FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FOR TUE NGT
INTO SAT...AS HI PRES BLDS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A DAMPENING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. TO THE SOUTH, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS NOTED
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF KSTL AT 00Z...TRAILING BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR SOME LGT
SHRAS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RACES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND
REACH THE ERN SHORE AFTER SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN
20% (BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN
SHORE...WHERE 30% POPS WL BE FORECAST (MAINLY LATE...BETWEEN
09-12Z) AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. SKY CONDITION WILL
AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...CLEARING LATE ACROSS THE WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED
OFF THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS MOISTURE INCREASES. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE WX IN TAF FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TUE MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
00Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...NE FLOW RETURNS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NC ON WED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC
REGION LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG. NE THRU SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
THIS EVENG...WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR W TUE MORNG...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT FOR LATER TUE MORNG/TUE AFTN. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NE OR E FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FOR TUE NGT
INTO SAT...AS HI PRES BLDS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160031
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
831 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID-EVENING IR/WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING A DAMPENING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. TO THE SOUTH, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS NOTED
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST EAST OF KSTL AT 00Z...TRAILING BACK
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR SOME LGT
SHRAS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RACES INTO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND
REACH THE ERN SHORE AFTER SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN
20% (BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN
SHORE...WHERE 30% POPS WL BE FORECAST (MAINLY LATE...BETWEEN
09-12Z) AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. SKY CONDITION WILL
AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY...CLEARING LATE ACROSS THE WEST
BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BKN-OVC CIG AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF KRIC INTO
SRN VA AND NE NC THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS DROP BELOW
3 KFT AGL AFTER 16/0500Z AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS A FEW HOURS BEFORE
AND AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER ROUGHLY
16/1400Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W-NW BY MID-MORNING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC
REGION LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG. NE THRU SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
THIS EVENG...WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR W TUE MORNG...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT FOR LATER TUE MORNG/TUE AFTN. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NE OR E FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FOR TUE NGT
INTO SAT...AS HI PRES BLDS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...TMG









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 152039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
439 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE MSAS ANALYSIS/SFC OBS INDICATING A COLD FRONT
TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE SRN HALF
OF THE AREA IN VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SKY COVER
BECOMES PARTLY SUNNY NE OF I-64...AND MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z/3PM AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REACH THE ERN SHORE
TOWARD SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 20% (BEGINNING AROUND AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN SHORE...WHERE 30-40%
POPS ARE FORECAST (MAINLY BETWEEN 09-12Z) AS A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE
UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BKN-OVC CIG AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF KRIC INTO
SRN VA AND NE NC THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS DROP BELOW
3 KFT AGL AFTER 16/0500Z AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS A FEW HOURS BEFORE
AND AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER ROUGHLY
16/1400Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W-NW BY MID-MORNING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC
REGION LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG. NE THRU SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
THIS EVENG...WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR W TUE MORNG...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT FOR LATER TUE MORNG/TUE AFTN. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NE OR E FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FOR TUE NGT
INTO SAT...AS HI PRES BLDS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 152039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
439 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE MSAS ANALYSIS/SFC OBS INDICATING A COLD FRONT
TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE SRN HALF
OF THE AREA IN VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SKY COVER
BECOMES PARTLY SUNNY NE OF I-64...AND MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z/3PM AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REACH THE ERN SHORE
TOWARD SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 20% (BEGINNING AROUND AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN SHORE...WHERE 30-40%
POPS ARE FORECAST (MAINLY BETWEEN 09-12Z) AS A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE
UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BKN-OVC CIG AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF KRIC INTO
SRN VA AND NE NC THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS DROP BELOW
3 KFT AGL AFTER 16/0500Z AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS A FEW HOURS BEFORE
AND AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER ROUGHLY
16/1400Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W-NW BY MID-MORNING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NRN MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLC
REGION LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG. NE THRU SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
THIS EVENG...WILL SHIFT TO THE SW OR W TUE MORNG...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT FOR LATER TUE MORNG/TUE AFTN. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NE OR E FLO WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WTRS FOR TUE NGT
INTO SAT...AS HI PRES BLDS BY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE MSAS ANALYSIS/SFC OBS INDICATING A COLD FRONT
TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE SRN HALF
OF THE AREA IN VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SKY COVER
BECOMES PARTLY SUNNY NE OF I-64...AND MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z/3PM AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND REACH THE ERN SHORE
TOWARD SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 20% (BEGINNING AROUND AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ERN SHORE...WHERE 30-40%
POPS ARE FORECAST (MAINLY BETWEEN 09-12Z) AS A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE N. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S N...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE
UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN A NW WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL SE VA/NE NC WHERE THE TAIL
END OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST...AND THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO NE. 20-30% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES/ATLANTIC COAST...TO
THE LOW/MID 80S OVER INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA/NE NC.

HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH FORCING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD SHRA ARE
UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A 20% POP WILL BE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN/SE VA
AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRA CREEPING N FOR ERN NC. HIGHS
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S
SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N LOW 60S SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA
(THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING
INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH
RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND
SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BKN-OVC CIG AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF KRIC INTO
SRN VA AND NE NC THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS DROP BELOW
3 KFT AGL AFTER 16/0500Z AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS A FEW HOURS BEFORE
AND AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER ROUGHLY
16/1400Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W-NW BY MID-MORNING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS
SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10
KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS.
WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TODAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONT TO LAY INVOF SE CONUS CST TDA...WHILE
HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. RGNL SFC OBS/VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING CONTD AREA OF BKN-OVC CLDNS FM NE NC NWD THROUGH
CNTRL VA. MEANWHILE...MNLY SKC OVER THE ERN SHORE. XPCG MCLDY SKY
THROUGH ERLY AFTN OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FA...BEFORE BECOMING PSNY
LATE...MSNY MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE...AND PSNY OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. WNDS GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE BY MID/LT AFTN...RESULTING
IN WARMER/A BIT MORE HUMID CONDS. MOST HI TEMPS TDA IN THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LO PRES APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE FA BY LT
TNGT...THEN OFF THE CST TUE MRNG. 00Z/15 NAM/GFS HAVE COME IN LWR
PTNTL FOR PCPN W/ THIS SYS AS MAIN MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT PASSES BY N
OF THE FA. WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS TO WRN/CNTRL LOCATIONS EARLY
TNGT...THEN 20-40% POPS AFT MDNGT TO THE CST AFT MDNGT INTO EARLY
TUE MRNG. DRYING ON WNW WNDS XPCD DURG TUE AND WILL CONT W/ DCRSG
POPS W-E...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE PORTIONS OF
VA/NE NC INTO THE AFTN AS TAIL END TO THE TROUGH IS SLO TO EXIT
THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HI TEMPS TUE FM
ARND 80F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L/M80S OVR INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR TUE NGT INTO WED AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM OH
VLY TO THE NRN MDATLC RGN. VRB CLDS TO PCLDY S...MNLY SKC N. LO
TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L/M50S N...TO THE L60S FAR SE. HI TEMPS WED
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA
(THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING
INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH
RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND
SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BKN-OVC CIG AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF KRIC INTO
SRN VA AND NE NC THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS DROP BELOW
3 KFT AGL AFTER 16/0500Z AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS A FEW HOURS BEFORE
AND AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER ROUGHLY
16/1400Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W-NW BY MID-MORNING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS
SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10
KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS.
WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MAS









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TODAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONT TO LAY INVOF SE CONUS CST TDA...WHILE
HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. RGNL SFC OBS/VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING CONTD AREA OF BKN-OVC CLDNS FM NE NC NWD THROUGH
CNTRL VA. MEANWHILE...MNLY SKC OVER THE ERN SHORE. XPCG MCLDY SKY
THROUGH ERLY AFTN OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FA...BEFORE BECOMING PSNY
LATE...MSNY MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE...AND PSNY OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. WNDS GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE BY MID/LT AFTN...RESULTING
IN WARMER/A BIT MORE HUMID CONDS. MOST HI TEMPS TDA IN THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LO PRES APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE FA BY LT
TNGT...THEN OFF THE CST TUE MRNG. 00Z/15 NAM/GFS HAVE COME IN LWR
PTNTL FOR PCPN W/ THIS SYS AS MAIN MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT PASSES BY N
OF THE FA. WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS TO WRN/CNTRL LOCATIONS EARLY
TNGT...THEN 20-40% POPS AFT MDNGT TO THE CST AFT MDNGT INTO EARLY
TUE MRNG. DRYING ON WNW WNDS XPCD DURG TUE AND WILL CONT W/ DCRSG
POPS W-E...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE PORTIONS OF
VA/NE NC INTO THE AFTN AS TAIL END TO THE TROUGH IS SLO TO EXIT
THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HI TEMPS TUE FM
ARND 80F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L/M80S OVR INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR TUE NGT INTO WED AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM OH
VLY TO THE NRN MDATLC RGN. VRB CLDS TO PCLDY S...MNLY SKC N. LO
TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L/M50S N...TO THE L60S FAR SE. HI TEMPS WED
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA
(THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING
INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH
RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND
SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BKN-OVC CIG AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF KRIC INTO
SRN VA AND NE NC THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. CEILINGS DROP BELOW
3 KFT AGL AFTER 16/0500Z AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS A FEW HOURS BEFORE
AND AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING AFTER ROUGHLY
16/1400Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE REST OF TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W-NW BY MID-MORNING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS
SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10
KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS.
WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...BMD/MAS
MARINE...MAS










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151418
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1018 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TODAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONT TO LAY INVOF SE CONUS CST TDA...WHILE
HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. RGNL SFC OBS/VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING CONTD AREA OF BKN-OVC CLDNS FM NE NC NWD THROUGH
CNTRL VA. MEANWHILE...MNLY SKC OVER THE ERN SHORE. XPCG MCLDY SKY
THROUGH ERLY AFTN OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FA...BEFORE BECOMING PSNY
LATE...MSNY MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE...AND PSNY OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. WNDS GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE BY MID/LT AFTN...RESULTING
IN WARMER/A BIT MORE HUMID CONDS. MOST HI TEMPS TDA IN THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LO PRES APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE FA BY LT
TNGT...THEN OFF THE CST TUE MRNG. 00Z/15 NAM/GFS HAVE COME IN LWR
PTNTL FOR PCPN W/ THIS SYS AS MAIN MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT PASSES BY N
OF THE FA. WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS TO WRN/CNTRL LOCATIONS EARLY
TNGT...THEN 20-40% POPS AFT MDNGT TO THE CST AFT MDNGT INTO EARLY
TUE MRNG. DRYING ON WNW WNDS XPCD DURG TUE AND WILL CONT W/ DCRSG
POPS W-E...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE PORTIONS OF
VA/NE NC INTO THE AFTN AS TAIL END TO THE TROUGH IS SLO TO EXIT
THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HI TEMPS TUE FM
ARND 80F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L/M80S OVR INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR TUE NGT INTO WED AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM OH
VLY TO THE NRN MDATLC RGN. VRB CLDS TO PCLDY S...MNLY SKC N. LO
TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L/M50S N...TO THE L60S FAR SE. HI TEMPS WED
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA
(THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING
INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH
RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND
SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WITH FRNTL BNDRY WELL S OF THE
AREA...SFC HI PRES IS SITUATED OVR THE NE/MID ATLANTIC. LINGERING
CLOUDS CONTINUE OVR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVR SRN AREAS WHERE
CIGS REMAIN AROUND 4-6K FT. THIS MAY CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...WITH
JUST SOME HI CLOUDS OVR NRN AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT AND VRB.
OTWS...DRY CONDITIONS TDA. PCPN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE TOO LO AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. HI
PRES THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS
SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10
KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS.
WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151418
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1018 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TODAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONT TO LAY INVOF SE CONUS CST TDA...WHILE
HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. RGNL SFC OBS/VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING CONTD AREA OF BKN-OVC CLDNS FM NE NC NWD THROUGH
CNTRL VA. MEANWHILE...MNLY SKC OVER THE ERN SHORE. XPCG MCLDY SKY
THROUGH ERLY AFTN OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FA...BEFORE BECOMING PSNY
LATE...MSNY MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE...AND PSNY OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. WNDS GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE BY MID/LT AFTN...RESULTING
IN WARMER/A BIT MORE HUMID CONDS. MOST HI TEMPS TDA IN THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LO PRES APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE FA BY LT
TNGT...THEN OFF THE CST TUE MRNG. 00Z/15 NAM/GFS HAVE COME IN LWR
PTNTL FOR PCPN W/ THIS SYS AS MAIN MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT PASSES BY N
OF THE FA. WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS TO WRN/CNTRL LOCATIONS EARLY
TNGT...THEN 20-40% POPS AFT MDNGT TO THE CST AFT MDNGT INTO EARLY
TUE MRNG. DRYING ON WNW WNDS XPCD DURG TUE AND WILL CONT W/ DCRSG
POPS W-E...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE PORTIONS OF
VA/NE NC INTO THE AFTN AS TAIL END TO THE TROUGH IS SLO TO EXIT
THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HI TEMPS TUE FM
ARND 80F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L/M80S OVR INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR TUE NGT INTO WED AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM OH
VLY TO THE NRN MDATLC RGN. VRB CLDS TO PCLDY S...MNLY SKC N. LO
TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L/M50S N...TO THE L60S FAR SE. HI TEMPS WED
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA
(THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING
INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH
RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND
SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WITH FRNTL BNDRY WELL S OF THE
AREA...SFC HI PRES IS SITUATED OVR THE NE/MID ATLANTIC. LINGERING
CLOUDS CONTINUE OVR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVR SRN AREAS WHERE
CIGS REMAIN AROUND 4-6K FT. THIS MAY CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...WITH
JUST SOME HI CLOUDS OVR NRN AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT AND VRB.
OTWS...DRY CONDITIONS TDA. PCPN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE TOO LO AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. HI
PRES THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS
SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10
KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS.
WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TODAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONT TO LAY INVOF SE CONUS CST TDA...WHILE
HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. RGNL SFC OBS SHOWING CONTD
AREA OF BKN-OVC CLDNS FM INTERIOR NE NC NWD THROUGH CNTRL VA.
MEANWHILE...MNLY SKC CLOSER TO THE CST. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PSNY OVR
MUCH OF THE FA TDA...MSNY MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE. WNDS
GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE BY MID/LT AFTN...RESULTING IN WARMER/A BIT
MORE HUMID CONDS. MOST HI TEMPS TDA IN THE U70S TO L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LO PRES APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE FA BY LT
TNGT...THEN OFF THE CST TUE MRNG. 00Z/15 NAM/GFS HAVE COME IN LWR
PTNTL FOR PCPN W/ THIS SYS AS MAIN MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT PASSES BY N
OF THE FA. WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS TO WRN/CNTRL LOCATIONS EARLY
TNGT...THEN 20-40% POPS AFT MDNGT TO THE CST AFT MDNGT INTO EARLY
TUE MRNG. DRYING ON WNW WNDS XPCD DURG TUE AND WILL CONT W/ DCRSG
POPS W-E...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE PORTIONS OF
VA/NE NC INTO THE AFTN AS TAIL END TO THE TROUGH IS SLO TO EXIT
THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HI TEMPS TUE FM
ARND 80F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L/M80S OVR INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR TUE NGT INTO WED AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM OH
VLY TO THE NRN MDATLC RGN. VRB CLDS TO PCLDY S...MNLY SKC N. LO
TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L/M50S N...TO THE L60S FAR SE. HI TEMPS WED
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA
(THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING
INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH
RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND
SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WITH FRNTL BNDRY WELL S OF THE
AREA...SFC HI PRES IS SITUATED OVR THE NE/MID ATLANTIC. LINGERING
CLOUDS CONTINUE OVR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVR SRN AREAS WHERE
CIGS REMAIN AROUND 4-6K FT. THIS MAY CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...WITH
JUST SOME HI CLOUDS OVR NRN AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT AND VRB.
OTWS...DRY CONDITIONS TDA. PCPN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE TOO LO AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. HI
PRES THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS
SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10
KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS.
WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TODAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONT TO LAY INVOF SE CONUS CST TDA...WHILE
HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. RGNL SFC OBS SHOWING CONTD
AREA OF BKN-OVC CLDNS FM INTERIOR NE NC NWD THROUGH CNTRL VA.
MEANWHILE...MNLY SKC CLOSER TO THE CST. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PSNY OVR
MUCH OF THE FA TDA...MSNY MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE. WNDS
GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE BY MID/LT AFTN...RESULTING IN WARMER/A BIT
MORE HUMID CONDS. MOST HI TEMPS TDA IN THE U70S TO L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LO PRES APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE FA BY LT
TNGT...THEN OFF THE CST TUE MRNG. 00Z/15 NAM/GFS HAVE COME IN LWR
PTNTL FOR PCPN W/ THIS SYS AS MAIN MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT PASSES BY N
OF THE FA. WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS TO WRN/CNTRL LOCATIONS EARLY
TNGT...THEN 20-40% POPS AFT MDNGT TO THE CST AFT MDNGT INTO EARLY
TUE MRNG. DRYING ON WNW WNDS XPCD DURG TUE AND WILL CONT W/ DCRSG
POPS W-E...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE PORTIONS OF
VA/NE NC INTO THE AFTN AS TAIL END TO THE TROUGH IS SLO TO EXIT
THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HI TEMPS TUE FM
ARND 80F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L/M80S OVR INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR TUE NGT INTO WED AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM OH
VLY TO THE NRN MDATLC RGN. VRB CLDS TO PCLDY S...MNLY SKC N. LO
TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L/M50S N...TO THE L60S FAR SE. HI TEMPS WED
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA
(THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING
INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH
RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND
SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WITH FRNTL BNDRY WELL S OF THE
AREA...SFC HI PRES IS SITUATED OVR THE NE/MID ATLANTIC. LINGERING
CLOUDS CONTINUE OVR THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVR SRN AREAS WHERE
CIGS REMAIN AROUND 4-6K FT. THIS MAY CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...WITH
JUST SOME HI CLOUDS OVR NRN AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT AND VRB.
OTWS...DRY CONDITIONS TDA. PCPN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE TOO LO AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS. HI
PRES THEN RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS
SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10
KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS.
WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 150804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TODAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONT TO LAY INVOF SE CONUS CST TDA...WHILE
HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. RGNL SFC OBS SHOWING CONTD
AREA OF BKN-OVC CLDNS FM INTERIOR NE NC NWD THROUGH CNTRL VA.
MEANWHILE...MNLY SKC CLOSER TO THE CST. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PSNY OVR
MUCH OF THE FA TDA...MSNY MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE. WNDS
GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE BY MID/LT AFTN...RESULTING IN WARMER/A BIT
MORE HUMID CONDS. MOST HI TEMPS TDA IN THE U70S TO L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LO PRES APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE FA BY LT
TNGT...THEN OFF THE CST TUE MRNG. 00Z/15 NAM/GFS HAVE COME IN LWR
PTNTL FOR PCPN W/ THIS SYS AS MAIN MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT PASSES BY N
OF THE FA. WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS TO WRN/CNTRL LOCATIONS EARLY
TNGT...THEN 20-40% POPS AFT MDNGT TO THE CST AFT MDNGT INTO EARLY
TUE MRNG. DRYING ON WNW WNDS XPCD DURG TUE AND WILL CONT W/ DCRSG
POPS W-E...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE PORTIONS OF
VA/NE NC INTO THE AFTN AS TAIL END TO THE TROUGH IS SLO TO EXIT
THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HI TEMPS TUE FM
ARND 80F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L/M80S OVR INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR TUE NGT INTO WED AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM OH
VLY TO THE NRN MDATLC RGN. VRB CLDS TO PCLDY S...MNLY SKC N. LO
TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L/M50S N...TO THE L60S FAR SE. HI TEMPS WED
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA
(THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING
INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH
RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND
SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST KRIC SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TDA. SCTD TO OCCASIONALLY BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 3-4K FT AT KECG/KORF/KPHF...MAY PERIODICALLY CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...WITH VFR RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS
SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10
KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS.
WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS


















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 150804
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TODAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONT TO LAY INVOF SE CONUS CST TDA...WHILE
HI PRES DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. RGNL SFC OBS SHOWING CONTD
AREA OF BKN-OVC CLDNS FM INTERIOR NE NC NWD THROUGH CNTRL VA.
MEANWHILE...MNLY SKC CLOSER TO THE CST. XPCG VRB CLDS TO PSNY OVR
MUCH OF THE FA TDA...MSNY MNLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE. WNDS
GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE BY MID/LT AFTN...RESULTING IN WARMER/A BIT
MORE HUMID CONDS. MOST HI TEMPS TDA IN THE U70S TO L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LO PRES APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH THE FA BY LT
TNGT...THEN OFF THE CST TUE MRNG. 00Z/15 NAM/GFS HAVE COME IN LWR
PTNTL FOR PCPN W/ THIS SYS AS MAIN MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT PASSES BY N
OF THE FA. WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS TO WRN/CNTRL LOCATIONS EARLY
TNGT...THEN 20-40% POPS AFT MDNGT TO THE CST AFT MDNGT INTO EARLY
TUE MRNG. DRYING ON WNW WNDS XPCD DURG TUE AND WILL CONT W/ DCRSG
POPS W-E...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE PORTIONS OF
VA/NE NC INTO THE AFTN AS TAIL END TO THE TROUGH IS SLO TO EXIT
THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. HI TEMPS TUE FM
ARND 80F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE L/M80S OVR INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR TUE NGT INTO WED AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FM OH
VLY TO THE NRN MDATLC RGN. VRB CLDS TO PCLDY S...MNLY SKC N. LO
TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L/M50S N...TO THE L60S FAR SE. HI TEMPS WED
RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL SFC HI PRES BREAKS DOWN/WEAKENS WED NGT...TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND/STRONGER SFC HI PRES AREA BUILDING SE FM SE CANADA
(THU INTO SAT). LONG PD OF ONSHORE/NE WNDS BEGINNING THU...LASTING
INTO THE WKND. HAVE INCRSD CLDNS/POPS SLGTLY OVR THE RGN...THOUGH
RIGHT NOW...APRS THAT WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UNLIKELY.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND
SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S THU...FRI...AND
SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST KRIC SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TDA. SCTD TO OCCASIONALLY BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 3-4K FT AT KECG/KORF/KPHF...MAY PERIODICALLY CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...WITH VFR RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS
SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA CST TDA WITH SFC HI PRES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LGT ONSHORE FLOW (AOB 10
KT) WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS.
WEAK TROF OF LO PRES PASSES THRU ON TUE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRNT AS 10-15 KT WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEGINS TUE NGT...LASTING THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. SEAS WILL APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...MAS



















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 150556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
156 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POP FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING. LATEST
WX ANALYSIS SHOWING 1024+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN GRT LAKES THIS EVENING. WEAK
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLIER THIS
AFTN, BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN HAS HELPED LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THESE SHRAS. THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH A WEAK S/W PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN
SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
AND NC NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MON...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE MON LATE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE TO AROUND 80 INLAND.

NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER WEEK AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW 850 MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND QPF. WILL CONT W/ CHC POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG...AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT TO SEA BY TUE AFTN WITH NW FLOW
AT 850 MB BY 18Z. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE
(45%-55%) AND SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC (40%-50%). LOWERS POPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST (25% TO 35%). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WELL INLAND TO MID 60S AT THE COAST.

POPS DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON EVEN ALONG THE COAST AND AFTERNOON
AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S DESPITE THE FRONT
PUSHING OFFSHORE. THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGH WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL LEAN TWD THE 12Z GFS MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR
OF A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD FM SCNTRL CANADA ESE ACRS NRN
NEW ENGLAND...THEN OFF THE CST FOR WED NGT THRU SAT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND AUTUMN-LIKE
TEMPS...AS A PERSISTENT NE FLO DOMINATES. THAT NE FLO WILL BE
STRONGER...ESPLY OVR THE WTRS...THU AFTN INTO SAT AFTN. THE HI
WILL WEAKEN OVR THE AREA OR MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE DURING
SUN. LGT SE OR S FLO WILL DEVELOP OVR THE REGION SUN AFTN ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE
LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
70S THU...FRI...AND SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST KRIC SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TDA. SCTD TO OCCASIONALLY BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 3-4K FT AT KECG/KORF/KPHF...MAY PERIODICALLY CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...WITH VFR RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL ZNS FM CHINCOTEAGUE TO
CURRITUCK BEACH LGT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENG FOR SEAS. HI PRES WILL
BLD ACRS THE NE U.S. AND OFF THE CST TNGT THRU MON. NNE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KT EXPECTED INTO EARLY MON AFTN...THEN BECOMES ESE LESS
THAN 10 KT BY MON EVENG. TROF OF LO PRES THEN CROSSES THE AREA
LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...SHIFTING WINDS FM SW TO NW OR N. NNE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED FOR TUE AFTN/TUE NGT...AS HI PRES BLDS
ACRS THE OH VLY INTO PA. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLO WILL THEN
DOMINATE THE WTRS FM WED THRU AT LEAST FRI. SEAS WILL APPROACH
AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT...ESPLY WED NGT THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 150556
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
156 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POP FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING. LATEST
WX ANALYSIS SHOWING 1024+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/EASTERN GRT LAKES THIS EVENING. WEAK
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLIER THIS
AFTN, BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN HAS HELPED LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THESE SHRAS. THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
ALONG WITH A WEAK S/W PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN
SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
AND NC NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MON...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
GRADUALLY TURN TO SSE MON LATE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE TO AROUND 80 INLAND.

NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER WEEK AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE LOW LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW 850 MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND QPF. WILL CONT W/ CHC POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG...AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT TO SEA BY TUE AFTN WITH NW FLOW
AT 850 MB BY 18Z. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE
(45%-55%) AND SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC (40%-50%). LOWERS POPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST (25% TO 35%). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WELL INLAND TO MID 60S AT THE COAST.

POPS DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON EVEN ALONG THE COAST AND AFTERNOON
AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S DESPITE THE FRONT
PUSHING OFFSHORE. THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGH WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL LEAN TWD THE 12Z GFS MODEL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR
OF A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD FM SCNTRL CANADA ESE ACRS NRN
NEW ENGLAND...THEN OFF THE CST FOR WED NGT THRU SAT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND AUTUMN-LIKE
TEMPS...AS A PERSISTENT NE FLO DOMINATES. THAT NE FLO WILL BE
STRONGER...ESPLY OVR THE WTRS...THU AFTN INTO SAT AFTN. THE HI
WILL WEAKEN OVR THE AREA OR MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE DURING
SUN. LGT SE OR S FLO WILL DEVELOP OVR THE REGION SUN AFTN ALLOWING
TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE
LWR 60S THU...FRI...AND SAT MORNGS...AND RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S SUN MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID
70S THU...FRI...AND SAT...AND IN THE UPR 70S/NEAR 80 SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST KRIC SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TDA. SCTD TO OCCASIONALLY BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 3-4K FT AT KECG/KORF/KPHF...MAY PERIODICALLY CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...WITH VFR RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL ZNS FM CHINCOTEAGUE TO
CURRITUCK BEACH LGT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENG FOR SEAS. HI PRES WILL
BLD ACRS THE NE U.S. AND OFF THE CST TNGT THRU MON. NNE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KT EXPECTED INTO EARLY MON AFTN...THEN BECOMES ESE LESS
THAN 10 KT BY MON EVENG. TROF OF LO PRES THEN CROSSES THE AREA
LATE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...SHIFTING WINDS FM SW TO NW OR N. NNE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXPECTED FOR TUE AFTN/TUE NGT...AS HI PRES BLDS
ACRS THE OH VLY INTO PA. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE FLO WILL THEN
DOMINATE THE WTRS FM WED THRU AT LEAST FRI. SEAS WILL APPROACH
AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT...ESPLY WED NGT THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MAM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...TMG








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