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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181905
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
305 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY
S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN
RGN OF MLCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD
JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF
NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT
PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS
THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA.
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE
U40S N TO THE L/M50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK S/W ALOFT NOW OFF THE CST...W/ CLEARING OCCURRING OVR MOST OF
FA. AN AREA OF SCT -RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ECNTRL NC...AND WILL
BE OFF THE CST (AND RMN S OF THE FA) DURING MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS.
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
N/CNTRL PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN...PARTLY SUNNY S. HIGH RES
MODELS INSIST ON ISOLD SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL CONT W/ 15-25%
POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. HI TEMPS M/U70S ALONG THE COAST
(EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK S/W ALOFT NOW OFF THE CST...W/ CLEARING OCCURRING OVR MOST OF
FA. AN AREA OF SCT -RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ECNTRL NC...AND WILL
BE OFF THE CST (AND RMN S OF THE FA) DURING MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS.
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
N/CNTRL PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN...PARTLY SUNNY S. HIGH RES
MODELS INSIST ON ISOLD SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL CONT W/ 15-25%
POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. HI TEMPS M/U70S ALONG THE COAST
(EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK S/W ALOFT NOW OFF THE CST...W/ CLEARING OCCURRING OVR MOST OF
FA. AN AREA OF SCT -RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ECNTRL NC...AND WILL
BE OFF THE CST (AND RMN S OF THE FA) DURING MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS.
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
N/CNTRL PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN...PARTLY SUNNY S. HIGH RES
MODELS INSIST ON ISOLD SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL CONT W/ 15-25%
POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. HI TEMPS M/U70S ALONG THE COAST
(EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE
NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD
SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG
TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME
GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN
ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181416
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK S/W ALOFT NOW OFF THE CST...W/ CLEARING OCCURRING OVR MOST OF
FA. AN AREA OF SCT -RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ECNTRL NC...AND WILL
BE OFF THE CST (AND RMN S OF THE FA) DURING MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS.
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
N/CNTRL PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN...PARTLY SUNNY S. HIGH RES
MODELS INSIST ON ISOLD SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL CONT W/ 15-25%
POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. HI TEMPS M/U70S ALONG THE COAST
(EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A
FEW -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
DENSE FOG AT SBY SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER
14Z. ~2SM IFR FOG AT PHF SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. A LIGHT WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A
FEW -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
DENSE FOG AT SBY SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER
14Z. ~2SM IFR FOG AT PHF SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. A LIGHT WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A
FEW -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
DENSE FOG AT SBY SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER
14Z. ~2SM IFR FOG AT PHF SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. A LIGHT WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A
FEW -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z.
DENSE FOG AT SBY SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN AND THEN DISSIPATE AFTER
14Z. ~2SM IFR FOG AT PHF SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. A LIGHT WIND
WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181032
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
632 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181032
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
632 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER FEATURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BEFORE IT
DOES SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ALONG WITH
ISOLD SHWRS MOVING THRU EASTERN VA AND NE NC. DENSE FOG REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE BUT EXPECT IT
TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 8 AM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THEN. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING...
SHOULD SEE A NICE DAY TODAY. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH
RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED
SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S
ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR
70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-
     024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE HAS WANED EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER STILL LINGERS AND AM ALSO NOTICING
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN EITHER LAST EVENING OR EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS DENSE
AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE THRU 8 AM. THE WEAK UPPER FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SHWER ACTIVITY EARLIER SHIFTS OFFSHORE AROUND 12Z AND SHOULD
SEE A NICE DAY TODAY (AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATE).

WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH. HIGH RES MODELS INSIST ON A FEW
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER
INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS (>30%) TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 70S ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70
RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE UPR 70S-LOW 80S INLAND.

STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR
40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E).
LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU
BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN
NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS
OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON
AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-
5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT
MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE
3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ~10KFT UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. A FEW SHRA
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH (WITH ONE PRESENTLY MOVING E OF
SBY)...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOME
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT RIC/SBY/PHF. THE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBY AVERAGING 1-2SM. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
13-14Z WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A
LIGHT SSW WIND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NNE BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH GENERALLY AFTER 10Z.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. RA AND
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
02Z UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED AND REMOVED MENTION
OUT PHF TAF. ADDED 2SM FOG AT RIC AT 07Z WHERE WET GROUND FROM
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE FOG DESPITE BKN TO OVC CLOUD
COVER.

KEPT IFR FOG AT SBY WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE 2 MILES
THERE BY 06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MIDDAY SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND
PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO N WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFT 10Z. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
NE DURING THE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
02Z UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED AND REMOVED MENTION
OUT PHF TAF. ADDED 2SM FOG AT RIC AT 07Z WHERE WET GROUND FROM
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE FOG DESPITE BKN TO OVC CLOUD
COVER.

KEPT IFR FOG AT SBY WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE 2 MILES
THERE BY 06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MIDDAY SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND
PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO N WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFT 10Z. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
NE DURING THE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
02Z UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED AND REMOVED MENTION
OUT PHF TAF. ADDED 2SM FOG AT RIC AT 07Z WHERE WET GROUND FROM
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE FOG DESPITE BKN TO OVC CLOUD
COVER.

KEPT IFR FOG AT SBY WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE 2 MILES
THERE BY 06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MIDDAY SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND
PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO N WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFT 10Z. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
NE DURING THE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
02Z UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED AND REMOVED MENTION
OUT PHF TAF. ADDED 2SM FOG AT RIC AT 07Z WHERE WET GROUND FROM
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE FOG DESPITE BKN TO OVC CLOUD
COVER.

KEPT IFR FOG AT SBY WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE 2 MILES
THERE BY 06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MIDDAY SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND
PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO N WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFT 10Z. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
NE DURING THE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF
IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WAS NEAR RIC AT 00Z AND MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE SHOWERS AT RIC DURING THE FIRST HOUR AND TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT PHF BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z. A SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC
METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 13Z...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N AND LATER NE. HAVE IFR FOG FOR
A FEW HOURS AT SBY WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM MOS HAVING 2 MILES THERE BY
06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 08Z.
ELSEWHERE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM
GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD MIDDAY
SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE
REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION
DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES).
WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON.
HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WAS NEAR RIC AT 00Z AND MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE SHOWERS AT RIC DURING THE FIRST HOUR AND TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT PHF BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z. A SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC
METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 13Z...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N AND LATER NE. HAVE IFR FOG FOR
A FEW HOURS AT SBY WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM MOS HAVING 2 MILES THERE BY
06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 08Z.
ELSEWHERE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM
GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD MIDDAY
SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
818 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED POPS TO 40-60% AND ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO NW PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z...AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR
KCHO AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FLUVANNA/LOUISA COUNTIES. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WX...BUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

PREV DISC...
SKY HAS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED OVR MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
INITIAL WK TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECOND ONE NOW NW
OF THE FA (AS EVIDENCED BY BKN-OVC CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS) WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS EVE...CROSSING THE FA OVRNGT. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS
W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC POPS OVR THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE S...THOUGH XPCG MOST OF
ANY RA FM THAT SYS TO STAY JUST S IN CAROLINAS. CONTG MENTION OF
LO CLDS/PATCHY FOG AFT MDNGT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND
LGT WNDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW
FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI
TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WAS NEAR RIC AT 00Z AND MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE SHOWERS AT RIC DURING THE FIRST HOUR AND TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT PHF BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z. A SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC
METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 13Z...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N AND LATER NE. HAVE IFR FOG FOR
A FEW HOURS AT SBY WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM MOS HAVING 2 MILES THERE BY
06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 08Z.
ELSEWHERE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM
GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD MIDDAY
SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
818 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED POPS TO 40-60% AND ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO NW PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z...AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR
KCHO AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FLUVANNA/LOUISA COUNTIES. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WX...BUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

PREV DISC...
SKY HAS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED OVR MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
INITIAL WK TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECOND ONE NOW NW
OF THE FA (AS EVIDENCED BY BKN-OVC CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS) WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS EVE...CROSSING THE FA OVRNGT. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS
W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC POPS OVR THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE S...THOUGH XPCG MOST OF
ANY RA FM THAT SYS TO STAY JUST S IN CAROLINAS. CONTG MENTION OF
LO CLDS/PATCHY FOG AFT MDNGT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND
LGT WNDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW
FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI
TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WAS NEAR RIC AT 00Z AND MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE SHOWERS AT RIC DURING THE FIRST HOUR AND TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT PHF BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z. A SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC
METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 13Z...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N AND LATER NE. HAVE IFR FOG FOR
A FEW HOURS AT SBY WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM MOS HAVING 2 MILES THERE BY
06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 08Z.
ELSEWHERE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM
GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD MIDDAY
SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
818 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED POPS TO 40-60% AND ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO NW PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z...AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR
KCHO AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FLUVANNA/LOUISA COUNTIES. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WX...BUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

PREV DISC...
SKY HAS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED OVR MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
INITIAL WK TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECOND ONE NOW NW
OF THE FA (AS EVIDENCED BY BKN-OVC CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS) WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS EVE...CROSSING THE FA OVRNGT. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS
W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC POPS OVR THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE S...THOUGH XPCG MOST OF
ANY RA FM THAT SYS TO STAY JUST S IN CAROLINAS. CONTG MENTION OF
LO CLDS/PATCHY FOG AFT MDNGT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND
LGT WNDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW
FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI
TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WAS NEAR RIC AT 00Z AND MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE SHOWERS AT RIC DURING THE FIRST HOUR AND TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT PHF BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z. A SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC
METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 13Z...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N AND LATER NE. HAVE IFR FOG FOR
A FEW HOURS AT SBY WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM MOS HAVING 2 MILES THERE BY
06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 08Z.
ELSEWHERE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM
GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD MIDDAY
SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
818 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED POPS TO 40-60% AND ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO NW PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z...AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR
KCHO AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FLUVANNA/LOUISA COUNTIES. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WX...BUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

PREV DISC...
SKY HAS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED OVR MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
INITIAL WK TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECOND ONE NOW NW
OF THE FA (AS EVIDENCED BY BKN-OVC CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS) WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS EVE...CROSSING THE FA OVRNGT. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS
W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC POPS OVR THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE S...THOUGH XPCG MOST OF
ANY RA FM THAT SYS TO STAY JUST S IN CAROLINAS. CONTG MENTION OF
LO CLDS/PATCHY FOG AFT MDNGT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND
LGT WNDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW
FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI
TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WAS NEAR RIC AT 00Z AND MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE SHOWERS AT RIC DURING THE FIRST HOUR AND TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT PHF BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z. A SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC
METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09
AND 13Z...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N AND LATER NE. HAVE IFR FOG FOR
A FEW HOURS AT SBY WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM MOS HAVING 2 MILES THERE BY
06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 08Z.
ELSEWHERE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM
GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD MIDDAY
SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BUMPED POPS TO 40-60% AND ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO NW PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z...AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR
KCHO AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FLUVANNA/LOUISA COUNTIES. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WX...BUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

PREV DISC...
SKY HAS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED OVR MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
INITIAL WK TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECOND ONE NOW NW
OF THE FA (AS EVIDENCED BY BKN-OVC CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS) WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS EVE...CROSSING THE FA OVRNGT. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS
W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC POPS OVR THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE S...THOUGH XPCG MOST OF
ANY RA FM THAT SYS TO STAY JUST S IN CAROLINAS. CONTG MENTION OF
LO CLDS/PATCHY FOG AFT MDNGT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND
LGT WNDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW
FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI
TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INVOF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS/VIS.
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST TAF SITES BECOMING SATURATED AT
THE SFC BTWN 18/0600-1200Z...A TECHNIQUE USED IN BUFKIT INDICATES
THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED OVER FOG. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES (EXCEPT KRIC) AFTER 18/0800Z AND
KEPT ANY FOG MENTION AT OR ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
 AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKY HAS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED OVR MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
INITIAL WK TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECOND ONE NOW NW
OF THE FA (AS EVIDENCED BY BKN-OVC CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS) WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS EVE...CROSSING THE FA OVRNGT. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS
W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC POPS OVR THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE S...THOUGH XPCG MOST OF
ANY RA FM THAT SYS TO STAY JUST S IN CAROLINAS. CONTG MENTION OF
LO CLDS/PATCHY FOG AFT MDNGT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND
LGT WNDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW
FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI
TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INVOF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS/VIS.
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST TAF SITES BECOMING SATURATED AT
THE SFC BTWN 18/0600-1200Z...A TECHNIQUE USED IN BUFKIT INDICATES
THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED OVER FOG. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES (EXCEPT KRIC) AFTER 18/0800Z AND
KEPT ANY FOG MENTION AT OR ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKY HAS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED OVR MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
INITIAL WK TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECOND ONE NOW NW
OF THE FA (AS EVIDENCED BY BKN-OVC CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS) WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS EVE...CROSSING THE FA OVRNGT. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS
W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC POPS OVR THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE S...THOUGH XPCG MOST OF
ANY RA FM THAT SYS TO STAY JUST S IN CAROLINAS. CONTG MENTION OF
LO CLDS/PATCHY FOG AFT MDNGT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND
LGT WNDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW
FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI
TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S
INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT-
THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH
PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL
AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO
MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INVOF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS/VIS.
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST TAF SITES BECOMING SATURATED AT
THE SFC BTWN 18/0600-1200Z...A TECHNIQUE USED IN BUFKIT INDICATES
THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED OVER FOG. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES (EXCEPT KRIC) AFTER 18/0800Z AND
KEPT ANY FOG MENTION AT OR ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GRADIENT BTWN THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. FLOW BACKS TO THE NNW TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NNW WINDS PERSIST SAT AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. NE FLOW
INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING TO 10-20 KT AS THE FRONT DROPS
OVER THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...BUT SEAS
PROGGED TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE SUN MORNING-SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST LATE SUN...WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN GRADIENT WINDS SUN NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE BAY AND 25-30
KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT. FLOW BECOMES
SELY MON AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS
LATE MON NIGHT. ATTM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST
FRONTAL TUES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKY HAS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED OVR MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
INITIAL WK TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECOND ONE NOW NW
OF THE FA (AS EVIDENCED BY BKN-OVC CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS) WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS EVE...CROSSING THE FA OVRNGT. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS
W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC POPS OVR THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE S...THOUGH XPCG MOST OF
ANY RA FM THAT SYS TO STAY JUST S IN CAROLINAS. CONTG MENTION OF
LO CLDS/PATCHY FOG AFT MDNGT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND
LGT WNDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW
FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI
TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INVOF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS/VIS.
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST TAF SITES BECOMING SATURATED AT
THE SFC BTWN 18/0600-1200Z...A TECHNIQUE USED IN BUFKIT INDICATES
THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED OVER FOG. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES (EXCEPT KRIC) AFTER 18/0800Z AND
KEPT ANY FOG MENTION AT OR ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKY HAS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED OVR MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN.
INITIAL WK TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECOND ONE NOW NW
OF THE FA (AS EVIDENCED BY BKN-OVC CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS) WILL BE
APPROACHING THIS EVE...CROSSING THE FA OVRNGT. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS
W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC POPS OVR THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE S...THOUGH XPCG MOST OF
ANY RA FM THAT SYS TO STAY JUST S IN CAROLINAS. CONTG MENTION OF
LO CLDS/PATCHY FOG AFT MDNGT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND
LGT WNDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW
FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S.
AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE
FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE
BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A
N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S
S.

HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE.
MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES
STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT
SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60%
POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO
THE L/M70S ELSW.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY
RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF
RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT
APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI
TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INVOF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS/VIS.
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST TAF SITES BECOMING SATURATED AT
THE SFC BTWN 18/0600-1200Z...A TECHNIQUE USED IN BUFKIT INDICATES
THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED OVER FOG. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES (EXCEPT KRIC) AFTER 18/0800Z AND
KEPT ANY FOG MENTION AT OR ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK TROUGH ALOFT CONTG TO PUSH TO THE CST THIS MRNG. AREA OF
CLDNS/SCT SHRAS ASSOCIATED W/ THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF ESE VA/NE NC INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS. CLEARING OCCURRING
BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVR NNW SECTIONS OF FA. XPCG CONDS TO AVG PSNY
OVR MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTN...AND AFT TROUGH EXITS...POPS TO BE
VERY LO. ANOTHER WKNG TROUGH APPROACHING FM THE NW LT THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISOLD/SCT SHRAS. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60-L70S CSTL AREAS...M-U70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE. SKIES THEN
BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS/
PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTN.
THUS...MADE CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH
18Z... KEPT COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95
CORRIDOR WITH 30- 40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED
TMPS AS WELL DUE TO THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS
L-M60S ALONG THE COAST 65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INVOF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS/VIS.
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST TAF SITES BECOMING SATURATED AT
THE SFC BTWN 18/0600-1200Z...A TECHNIQUE USED IN BUFKIT INDICATES
THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED OVER FOG. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES (EXCEPT KRIC) AFTER 18/0800Z AND
KEPT ANY FOG MENTION AT OR ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK TROUGH ALOFT CONTG TO PUSH TO THE CST THIS MRNG. AREA OF
CLDNS/SCT SHRAS ASSOCIATED W/ THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF ESE VA/NE NC INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS. CLEARING OCCURRING
BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVR NNW SECTIONS OF FA. XPCG CONDS TO AVG PSNY
OVR MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTN...AND AFT TROUGH EXITS...POPS TO BE
VERY LO. ANOTHER WKNG TROUGH APPROACHING FM THE NW LT THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISOLD/SCT SHRAS. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60-L70S CSTL AREAS...M-U70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE. SKIES THEN
BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS/
PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTN.
THUS...MADE CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH
18Z... KEPT COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95
CORRIDOR WITH 30- 40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED
TMPS AS WELL DUE TO THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS
L-M60S ALONG THE COAST 65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INVOF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS/VIS.
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST TAF SITES BECOMING SATURATED AT
THE SFC BTWN 18/0600-1200Z...A TECHNIQUE USED IN BUFKIT INDICATES
THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED OVER FOG. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES (EXCEPT KRIC) AFTER 18/0800Z AND
KEPT ANY FOG MENTION AT OR ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK TROUGH ALOFT CONTG TO PUSH TO THE CST THIS MRNG. AREA OF
CLDNS/SCT SHRAS ASSOCIATED W/ THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF ESE VA/NE NC INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS. CLEARING OCCURRING
BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVR NNW SECTIONS OF FA. XPCG CONDS TO AVG PSNY
OVR MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTN...AND AFT TROUGH EXITS...POPS TO BE
VERY LO. ANOTHER WKNG TROUGH APPROACHING FM THE NW LT THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISOLD/SCT SHRAS. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60-L70S CSTL AREAS...M-U70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE. SKIES THEN
BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS/
PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTN.
THUS...MADE CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH
18Z... KEPT COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95
CORRIDOR WITH 30- 40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED
TMPS AS WELL DUE TO THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS
L-M60S ALONG THE COAST 65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INVOF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS/VIS.
WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST TAF SITES BECOMING SATURATED AT
THE SFC BTWN 18/0600-1200Z...A TECHNIQUE USED IN BUFKIT INDICATES
THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED OVER FOG. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES (EXCEPT KRIC) AFTER 18/0800Z AND
KEPT ANY FOG MENTION AT OR ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THIS TIME.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171423
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1023 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK TROUGH ALOFT CONTG TO PUSH TO THE CST THIS MRNG. AREA OF
CLDNS/SCT SHRAS ASSOCIATED W/ THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF ESE VA/NE NC INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS. CLEARING OCCURRING
BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVR NNW SECTIONS OF FA. XPCG CONDS TO AVG PSNY
OVR MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTN...AND AFT TROUGH EXITS...POPS TO BE
VERY LO. ANOTHER WKNG TROUGH APPROACHING FM THE NW LT THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISOLD/SCT SHRAS. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60-L70S CSTL AREAS...M-U70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE. SKIES THEN
BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS/
PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE
CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT
COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30-
40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO
THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST
65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY -RA IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT ANY -RA THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT PREVAILING -RA OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING
EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171423
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1023 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK TROUGH ALOFT CONTG TO PUSH TO THE CST THIS MRNG. AREA OF
CLDNS/SCT SHRAS ASSOCIATED W/ THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF ESE VA/NE NC INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS. CLEARING OCCURRING
BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVR NNW SECTIONS OF FA. XPCG CONDS TO AVG PSNY
OVR MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTN...AND AFT TROUGH EXITS...POPS TO BE
VERY LO. ANOTHER WKNG TROUGH APPROACHING FM THE NW LT THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISOLD/SCT SHRAS. HI
TEMPS FM THE U60-L70S CSTL AREAS...M-U70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE. SKIES THEN
BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS/
PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE
CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT
COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30-
40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO
THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST
65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY -RA IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT ANY -RA THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT PREVAILING -RA OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING
EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171116
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
716 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FA WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR SHOWING
SPORATIC AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE TROF WITH BULK OF PCPN
NOW ALONG THE ERN SHORE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE DSPTG BY NOON. XPECT A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE ECHO ACTIVITY
THRU THE MIDDAY HRS BEFORE ADDNTL SHWRS DVLP ALONG THE LINGERING
TROF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 18Z. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOTED LATE
THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FA IVOF THE TROF SO ADDED SLGHT
CHC THUNDER TO THE GRIDS MAINLY NORTH OF I64 AND ST RT 360. XPCT
PARTIAL CLRG BY NOON WITH A BKN CU/TCU DECK (ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG
THIS AFTRN. DYTME HEATING RESULTS IN TMPS RISING INTO THE U60-L70S
CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS/ISLTD TSTMS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE.
SKIES THEN BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRATUS/ PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE
CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT
COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30-
40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO
THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST
65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY -RA IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT ANY -RA THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT PREVAILING -RA OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING
EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171116
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
716 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FA WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR SHOWING
SPORATIC AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE TROF WITH BULK OF PCPN
NOW ALONG THE ERN SHORE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE DSPTG BY NOON. XPECT A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE ECHO ACTIVITY
THRU THE MIDDAY HRS BEFORE ADDNTL SHWRS DVLP ALONG THE LINGERING
TROF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 18Z. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOTED LATE
THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FA IVOF THE TROF SO ADDED SLGHT
CHC THUNDER TO THE GRIDS MAINLY NORTH OF I64 AND ST RT 360. XPCT
PARTIAL CLRG BY NOON WITH A BKN CU/TCU DECK (ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG
THIS AFTRN. DYTME HEATING RESULTS IN TMPS RISING INTO THE U60-L70S
CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS/ISLTD TSTMS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE.
SKIES THEN BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRATUS/ PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE
CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT
COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30-
40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO
THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST
65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY -RA IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT ANY -RA THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT PREVAILING -RA OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING
EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171116
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
716 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FA WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR SHOWING
SPORATIC AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE TROF WITH BULK OF PCPN
NOW ALONG THE ERN SHORE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE DSPTG BY NOON. XPECT A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE ECHO ACTIVITY
THRU THE MIDDAY HRS BEFORE ADDNTL SHWRS DVLP ALONG THE LINGERING
TROF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 18Z. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOTED LATE
THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FA IVOF THE TROF SO ADDED SLGHT
CHC THUNDER TO THE GRIDS MAINLY NORTH OF I64 AND ST RT 360. XPCT
PARTIAL CLRG BY NOON WITH A BKN CU/TCU DECK (ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG
THIS AFTRN. DYTME HEATING RESULTS IN TMPS RISING INTO THE U60-L70S
CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS/ISLTD TSTMS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE.
SKIES THEN BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRATUS/ PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE
CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT
COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30-
40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO
THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST
65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY -RA IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT ANY -RA THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT PREVAILING -RA OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING
EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171116
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
716 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FA WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR SHOWING
SPORATIC AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE TROF WITH BULK OF PCPN
NOW ALONG THE ERN SHORE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE DSPTG BY NOON. XPECT A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE ECHO ACTIVITY
THRU THE MIDDAY HRS BEFORE ADDNTL SHWRS DVLP ALONG THE LINGERING
TROF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 18Z. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOTED LATE
THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FA IVOF THE TROF SO ADDED SLGHT
CHC THUNDER TO THE GRIDS MAINLY NORTH OF I64 AND ST RT 360. XPCT
PARTIAL CLRG BY NOON WITH A BKN CU/TCU DECK (ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG
THIS AFTRN. DYTME HEATING RESULTS IN TMPS RISING INTO THE U60-L70S
CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS/ISLTD TSTMS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE.
SKIES THEN BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRATUS/ PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE
CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT
COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30-
40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO
THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST
65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SPOTTY -RA IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT ANY -RA THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT PREVAILING -RA OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. OTW...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING
EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
611 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FA WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR SHOWING
SPORATIC AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE TROF WITH BULK OF PCPN
NOW ALONG THE ERN SHORE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE DSPTG BY NOON. XPECT A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE ECHO ACTIVITY
THRU THE MIDDAY HRS BEFORE ADDNTL SHWRS DVLP ALONG THE LINGERING
TROF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 18Z. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOTED LATE
THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FA IVOF THE TROF SO ADDED SLGHT
CHC THUNDER TO THE GRIDS MAINLY NORTH OF I64 AND ST RT 360. XPCT
PARTIAL CLRG BY NOON WITH A BKN CU/TCU DECK (ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG
THIS AFTRN. DYTME HEATING RESULTS IN TMPS RISING INTO THE U60-L70S
CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS/ISLTD TSTMS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE.
SKIES THEN BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRATUS/ PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE
CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT
COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30-
40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO
THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST
65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY BUT ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND RETAINED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BUT KSBY. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
611 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FA WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR SHOWING
SPORATIC AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE TROF WITH BULK OF PCPN
NOW ALONG THE ERN SHORE.

SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE DSPTG BY NOON. XPECT A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE ECHO ACTIVITY
THRU THE MIDDAY HRS BEFORE ADDNTL SHWRS DVLP ALONG THE LINGERING
TROF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 18Z. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOTED LATE
THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF FA IVOF THE TROF SO ADDED SLGHT
CHC THUNDER TO THE GRIDS MAINLY NORTH OF I64 AND ST RT 360. XPCT
PARTIAL CLRG BY NOON WITH A BKN CU/TCU DECK (ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG
THIS AFTRN. DYTME HEATING RESULTS IN TMPS RISING INTO THE U60-L70S
CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS/ISLTD TSTMS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE.
SKIES THEN BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRATUS/ PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE
CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT
COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30-
40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO
THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST
65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY BUT ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND RETAINED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BUT KSBY. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR
SHOWING SPORATIC AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA ALONG
THE TROF.

SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE DSPTG. CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE IS FOR SOME FOG DVLPMNT IVOF
THE WATER GIVEN THE LIGHT SSE FLOW AND INCRG MOISTURE. THUS...HAVE
KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN GRIDS OVR THE WATER.

EXPECT A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE ECHO ACTIVITY THRU THE MIDDAY HRS
BEFORE ADDNTL SHWRS DVLP ALONG THE LINGERING TROF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR
18Z. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOTED LATE THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA IVOF THE TROF SO ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
MAINLY NORTH OF I64 AND ST RT 360. XPCT PARTIAL CLRG BY NOON WITH
A BKN CU/TCU DECK (ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG THIS AFTRN. DYTME HEATING
RESULTS IN TMPS RISING INTO THE U60-L70S CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF
CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS/ISLTD TSTMS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE.
SKIES THEN BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRATUS/ PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE
CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT
COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30-
40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO
THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST
65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY BUT ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND RETAINED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BUT KSBY. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FA WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR
SHOWING SPORATIC AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA ALONG
THE TROF.

SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE DSPTG. CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE IS FOR SOME FOG DVLPMNT IVOF
THE WATER GIVEN THE LIGHT SSE FLOW AND INCRG MOISTURE. THUS...HAVE
KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN GRIDS OVR THE WATER.

EXPECT A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE ECHO ACTIVITY THRU THE MIDDAY HRS
BEFORE ADDNTL SHWRS DVLP ALONG THE LINGERING TROF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR
18Z. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOTED LATE THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF FA IVOF THE TROF SO ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
MAINLY NORTH OF I64 AND ST RT 360. XPCT PARTIAL CLRG BY NOON WITH
A BKN CU/TCU DECK (ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG THIS AFTRN. DYTME HEATING
RESULTS IN TMPS RISING INTO THE U60-L70S CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF
CHES BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP
SHWRS/ISLTD TSTMS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE.
SKIES THEN BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRATUS/ PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW
AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES)
TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY.

A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH
TO THE L-M50S SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN
AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTRN. THUS...MADE
CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT
COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30-
40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO
THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST
65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS
SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETHA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY BUT ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND RETAINED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BUT KSBY. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR
5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES
1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS
AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS
BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON
MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUES MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170529
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF
THE NRN MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SC/GA COAST. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE CONTINUED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP OVER
MOST OF THE AKQ CWA. SKIES ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SE VA. GRIDDED FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER POPS
INTO THE EARLY AM HRS FOR MOST AREAS. SHORT TERM MODELS GENLY SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE CWA AFTER 06Z...THOUGH
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY OVC IN AREAS THAT
HAVE CLEARED OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-40% POPS FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-
12Z...HIGHEST ACRS THE N/NW. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
WATERS AFTER 08Z GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SFC DEW PTS RISING INTO THE
MID 50S. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES FROM CURRENT VALUES...RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY BUT ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND RETAINED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BUT KSBY. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170529
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF
THE NRN MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SC/GA COAST. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE CONTINUED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP OVER
MOST OF THE AKQ CWA. SKIES ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SE VA. GRIDDED FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER POPS
INTO THE EARLY AM HRS FOR MOST AREAS. SHORT TERM MODELS GENLY SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE CWA AFTER 06Z...THOUGH
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY OVC IN AREAS THAT
HAVE CLEARED OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-40% POPS FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-
12Z...HIGHEST ACRS THE N/NW. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
WATERS AFTER 08Z GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SFC DEW PTS RISING INTO THE
MID 50S. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES FROM CURRENT VALUES...RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY BUT ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND RETAINED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BUT KSBY. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170529
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF
THE NRN MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SC/GA COAST. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE CONTINUED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP OVER
MOST OF THE AKQ CWA. SKIES ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SE VA. GRIDDED FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER POPS
INTO THE EARLY AM HRS FOR MOST AREAS. SHORT TERM MODELS GENLY SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE CWA AFTER 06Z...THOUGH
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY OVC IN AREAS THAT
HAVE CLEARED OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-40% POPS FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-
12Z...HIGHEST ACRS THE N/NW. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
WATERS AFTER 08Z GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SFC DEW PTS RISING INTO THE
MID 50S. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES FROM CURRENT VALUES...RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY BUT ANY RAIN THAT
OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND RETAINED
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES BUT KSBY. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW BY THIS
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170235
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF
THE NRN MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SC/GA COAST. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE CONTINUED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP OVER
MOST OF THE AKQ CWA. SKIES ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SE VA. GRIDDED FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER POPS
INTO THE EARLY AM HRS FOR MOST AREAS. SHORT TERM MODELS GENLY SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE CWA AFTER 06Z...THOUGH
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY OVC IN AREAS THAT
HAVE CLEARED OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-40% POPS FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-
12Z...HIGHEST ACRS THE N/NW. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
WATERS AFTER 08Z GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SFC DEW PTS RISING INTO THE
MID 50S. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES FROM CURRENT VALUES...RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING AND INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AT ALL BUT SBY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR AT ORF AND ECG BUT
THOSE SOUNDINGS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SW ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170235
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF
THE NRN MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
SC/GA COAST. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE CONTINUED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP OVER
MOST OF THE AKQ CWA. SKIES ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SE VA. GRIDDED FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER POPS
INTO THE EARLY AM HRS FOR MOST AREAS. SHORT TERM MODELS GENLY SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE CWA AFTER 06Z...THOUGH
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY OVC IN AREAS THAT
HAVE CLEARED OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-40% POPS FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-
12Z...HIGHEST ACRS THE N/NW. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
WATERS AFTER 08Z GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND SFC DEW PTS RISING INTO THE
MID 50S. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL DROP
IN TEMPERATURES FROM CURRENT VALUES...RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING AND INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AT ALL BUT SBY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR AT ORF AND ECG BUT
THOSE SOUNDINGS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SW ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT -RA HAS MADE IT TO JUST ABT THE I 95 AS OF MID AFTN...WHILE
DRY AIR CONTS HOLDING ON TWD THE CST. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
FOR THE PCPN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE PAST FEW HRS. QUESTION FOR
THE EVE/OVRNGT IS COVERAGE/AMT OF RA AS WK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES
ACRS THE FA. BULK OF THE MOISTURE TENDS TO LIFT TO THE NE TWD NEW
ENG BY LT TNGT...LEAVING MNLY CLDY CONDS OVR THE FA. WILL HANG
ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MNLY WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. LO TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING AND INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AT ALL BUT SBY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR AT ORF AND ECG BUT
THOSE SOUNDINGS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SW ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT -RA HAS MADE IT TO JUST ABT THE I 95 AS OF MID AFTN...WHILE
DRY AIR CONTS HOLDING ON TWD THE CST. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
FOR THE PCPN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE PAST FEW HRS. QUESTION FOR
THE EVE/OVRNGT IS COVERAGE/AMT OF RA AS WK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES
ACRS THE FA. BULK OF THE MOISTURE TENDS TO LIFT TO THE NE TWD NEW
ENG BY LT TNGT...LEAVING MNLY CLDY CONDS OVR THE FA. WILL HANG
ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MNLY WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. LO TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING AND INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AT ALL BUT SBY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR AT ORF AND ECG BUT
THOSE SOUNDINGS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SW ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT -RA HAS MADE IT TO JUST ABT THE I 95 AS OF MID AFTN...WHILE
DRY AIR CONTS HOLDING ON TWD THE CST. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
FOR THE PCPN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE PAST FEW HRS. QUESTION FOR
THE EVE/OVRNGT IS COVERAGE/AMT OF RA AS WK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES
ACRS THE FA. BULK OF THE MOISTURE TENDS TO LIFT TO THE NE TWD NEW
ENG BY LT TNGT...LEAVING MNLY CLDY CONDS OVR THE FA. WILL HANG
ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MNLY WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. LO TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING AND INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AT ALL BUT SBY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR AT ORF AND ECG BUT
THOSE SOUNDINGS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SW ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT -RA HAS MADE IT TO JUST ABT THE I 95 AS OF MID AFTN...WHILE
DRY AIR CONTS HOLDING ON TWD THE CST. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
FOR THE PCPN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE PAST FEW HRS. QUESTION FOR
THE EVE/OVRNGT IS COVERAGE/AMT OF RA AS WK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES
ACRS THE FA. BULK OF THE MOISTURE TENDS TO LIFT TO THE NE TWD NEW
ENG BY LT TNGT...LEAVING MNLY CLDY CONDS OVR THE FA. WILL HANG
ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MNLY WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. LO TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. DUE
TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING AND INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AT ALL BUT SBY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR AT ORF AND ECG BUT
THOSE SOUNDINGS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. LIGHT SE
WINDS BECOME SW ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE
SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT -RA HAS MADE IT TO JUST ABT THE I 95 AS OF MID AFTN...WHILE
DRY AIR CONTS HOLDING ON TWD THE CST. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
FOR THE PCPN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE PAST FEW HRS. QUESTION FOR
THE EVE/OVRNGT IS COVERAGE/AMT OF RA AS WK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES
ACRS THE FA. BULK OF THE MOISTURE TENDS TO LIFT TO THE NE TWD NEW
ENG BY LT TNGT...LEAVING MNLY CLDY CONDS OVR THE FA. WILL HANG
ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MNLY WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. LO TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU
FRI...WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES APPROACHES AND SLIDES ACRS THE
AREA. DID NOT ADD A -SHRA TO ANY TAF SITES ON THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT RIC AND SBY COULD RECEIVE A -SHRA LATER THIS AFTN
INTO FRI MORNG. COULD ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT -RA HAS MADE IT TO JUST ABT THE I 95 AS OF MID AFTN...WHILE
DRY AIR CONTS HOLDING ON TWD THE CST. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
FOR THE PCPN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE PAST FEW HRS. QUESTION FOR
THE EVE/OVRNGT IS COVERAGE/AMT OF RA AS WK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES
ACRS THE FA. BULK OF THE MOISTURE TENDS TO LIFT TO THE NE TWD NEW
ENG BY LT TNGT...LEAVING MNLY CLDY CONDS OVR THE FA. WILL HANG
ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MNLY WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. LO TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN
NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM
FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED
NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU
FRI...WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES APPROACHES AND SLIDES ACRS THE
AREA. DID NOT ADD A -SHRA TO ANY TAF SITES ON THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT RIC AND SBY COULD RECEIVE A -SHRA LATER THIS AFTN
INTO FRI MORNG. COULD ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED
NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT
AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB
15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS.
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN
AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN
NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BMD/MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD/JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161912
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT -RA HAS MADE IT TO JUST ABT THE I 95 AS OF MID AFTN...WHILE
DRY AIR CONTS HOLDING ON TWD THE CST. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
FOR THE PCPN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE PAST FEW HRS. QUESTION FOR
THE EVE/OVRNGT IS COVERAGE/AMT OF RA AS WK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES
ACRS THE FA. BULK OF THE MOISTURE TENDS TO LIFT TO THE NE TWD NEW
ENG BY LT TNGT...LEAVING MNLY CLDY CONDS OVR THE FA. WILL HANG
ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MNLY WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. LO TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU
FRI...WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES APPROACHES AND SLIDES ACRS THE
AREA. DID NOT ADD A -SHRA TO ANY TAF SITES ON THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT RIC AND SBY COULD RECEIVE A -SHRA LATER THIS AFTN
INTO FRI MORNG. COULD ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161912
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCT -RA HAS MADE IT TO JUST ABT THE I 95 AS OF MID AFTN...WHILE
DRY AIR CONTS HOLDING ON TWD THE CST. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY
FOR THE PCPN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE PAST FEW HRS. QUESTION FOR
THE EVE/OVRNGT IS COVERAGE/AMT OF RA AS WK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES
ACRS THE FA. BULK OF THE MOISTURE TENDS TO LIFT TO THE NE TWD NEW
ENG BY LT TNGT...LEAVING MNLY CLDY CONDS OVR THE FA. WILL HANG
ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MNLY WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. LO TEMPS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY
OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG
HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME
HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE
CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND.

XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS
WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS
CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING
LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL
S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE
P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S
(WELL) INLAND.

SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN
AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE
WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING
(MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT
NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO
THE M70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU
FRI...WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES APPROACHES AND SLIDES ACRS THE
AREA. DID NOT ADD A -SHRA TO ANY TAF SITES ON THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT RIC AND SBY COULD RECEIVE A -SHRA LATER THIS AFTN
INTO FRI MORNG. COULD ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
209 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WX PATTERN SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. SFC HI PRES HAS MOVED FM ERN
LAKES RGN TO NEW ENG BY THIS MRNG. DRY AIR FM THE NNE RMNS IN
PLACES SWD TO ERN NC. MEANWHILE...RIBBON OF MOISTURE FOUND FM THE
CNTRL/WRN CAROLINAS NNW TO THE ERN OH VLY. ANOTHER AREA OF RA
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INTO FAR WRN AREAS OF FA THIS MRNG...BUT DRY
AIR TO THE E HOLDING ITS PROGRESS (TO THE E) AT BAY. 13Z/16 RUC
KEEPS DRY WX E OF I95 THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...W/ THE PTNTL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY LGT RA (POPS MNLY  20-40%) REACHING PORTIONS OF THE
I 95 CORRIDOR (ALG W/ INCRSG CLDNS). WILL HAVE SUNNY-PC E...VRB
CLDS- MCLDY W. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S OVR PIEDMONT IN CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO THE M60S- L70S E OF I 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MSTR FIELDS ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES ASSCTD WITH SRN TROF MOVES NNE INTO THE
SFC RIDGE. DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MSTR POOLS IVOF THE SFC TROF
TO THE NW OF FA WITH ANTHR WEAKER ENERGY PULSE ALONG THE SRN TROF
LEAVING MOST OF THE AKQ FA BTWN SYSTMS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SPRT FOR PCPN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FCST GIVEN THE
ABOVE SCENARIO. KEPT THE EVENING DRY ALONG/E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. KEPT 20-30 POPS OVR WRN MOST PIEDMONT CNTYS.
GIVEN THE AMT OF MSTR AVAILIBLE AND WEAK LIFT SPILLING E...KEPT
CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PTCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOWS 50-55.

HIGH PRS MOVES FRTHR E BY FRI ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY.
AFTR MORNING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE...XPCT TO SEE A GRDL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN CU DECK DRNG THE AFTRN. LINGERING MSTR
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WRMR WITH HIGHS
70-75 CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF THE BAY. LINGERING SHWRS FRI EVENING
THEN REMAINING PT CLDY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DATA SUGGESTS ANTHR CHC FOR STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. LOWS
IN THE L-M50S.

WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SAT SHUNTING ANY PCPN SOUTH OF
THE FA. WARM UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS M-U70 CSTL AREAS
NEAR 80 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU
FRI...WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES APPROACHES AND SLIDES ACRS THE
AREA. DID NOT ADD A -SHRA TO ANY TAF SITES ON THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT RIC AND SBY COULD RECEIVE A -SHRA LATER THIS AFTN
INTO FRI MORNG. COULD ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
209 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WX PATTERN SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. SFC HI PRES HAS MOVED FM ERN
LAKES RGN TO NEW ENG BY THIS MRNG. DRY AIR FM THE NNE RMNS IN
PLACES SWD TO ERN NC. MEANWHILE...RIBBON OF MOISTURE FOUND FM THE
CNTRL/WRN CAROLINAS NNW TO THE ERN OH VLY. ANOTHER AREA OF RA
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INTO FAR WRN AREAS OF FA THIS MRNG...BUT DRY
AIR TO THE E HOLDING ITS PROGRESS (TO THE E) AT BAY. 13Z/16 RUC
KEEPS DRY WX E OF I95 THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...W/ THE PTNTL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY LGT RA (POPS MNLY  20-40%) REACHING PORTIONS OF THE
I 95 CORRIDOR (ALG W/ INCRSG CLDNS). WILL HAVE SUNNY-PC E...VRB
CLDS- MCLDY W. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S OVR PIEDMONT IN CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO THE M60S- L70S E OF I 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MSTR FIELDS ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES ASSCTD WITH SRN TROF MOVES NNE INTO THE
SFC RIDGE. DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MSTR POOLS IVOF THE SFC TROF
TO THE NW OF FA WITH ANTHR WEAKER ENERGY PULSE ALONG THE SRN TROF
LEAVING MOST OF THE AKQ FA BTWN SYSTMS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SPRT FOR PCPN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FCST GIVEN THE
ABOVE SCENARIO. KEPT THE EVENING DRY ALONG/E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. KEPT 20-30 POPS OVR WRN MOST PIEDMONT CNTYS.
GIVEN THE AMT OF MSTR AVAILIBLE AND WEAK LIFT SPILLING E...KEPT
CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PTCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOWS 50-55.

HIGH PRS MOVES FRTHR E BY FRI ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY.
AFTR MORNING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE...XPCT TO SEE A GRDL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN CU DECK DRNG THE AFTRN. LINGERING MSTR
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WRMR WITH HIGHS
70-75 CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF THE BAY. LINGERING SHWRS FRI EVENING
THEN REMAINING PT CLDY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DATA SUGGESTS ANTHR CHC FOR STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. LOWS
IN THE L-M50S.

WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SAT SHUNTING ANY PCPN SOUTH OF
THE FA. WARM UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS M-U70 CSTL AREAS
NEAR 80 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU
FRI...WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES APPROACHES AND SLIDES ACRS THE
AREA. DID NOT ADD A -SHRA TO ANY TAF SITES ON THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT RIC AND SBY COULD RECEIVE A -SHRA LATER THIS AFTN
INTO FRI MORNG. COULD ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
209 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WX PATTERN SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. SFC HI PRES HAS MOVED FM ERN
LAKES RGN TO NEW ENG BY THIS MRNG. DRY AIR FM THE NNE RMNS IN
PLACES SWD TO ERN NC. MEANWHILE...RIBBON OF MOISTURE FOUND FM THE
CNTRL/WRN CAROLINAS NNW TO THE ERN OH VLY. ANOTHER AREA OF RA
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INTO FAR WRN AREAS OF FA THIS MRNG...BUT DRY
AIR TO THE E HOLDING ITS PROGRESS (TO THE E) AT BAY. 13Z/16 RUC
KEEPS DRY WX E OF I95 THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...W/ THE PTNTL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY LGT RA (POPS MNLY  20-40%) REACHING PORTIONS OF THE
I 95 CORRIDOR (ALG W/ INCRSG CLDNS). WILL HAVE SUNNY-PC E...VRB
CLDS- MCLDY W. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S OVR PIEDMONT IN CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO THE M60S- L70S E OF I 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MSTR FIELDS ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES ASSCTD WITH SRN TROF MOVES NNE INTO THE
SFC RIDGE. DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MSTR POOLS IVOF THE SFC TROF
TO THE NW OF FA WITH ANTHR WEAKER ENERGY PULSE ALONG THE SRN TROF
LEAVING MOST OF THE AKQ FA BTWN SYSTMS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SPRT FOR PCPN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FCST GIVEN THE
ABOVE SCENARIO. KEPT THE EVENING DRY ALONG/E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. KEPT 20-30 POPS OVR WRN MOST PIEDMONT CNTYS.
GIVEN THE AMT OF MSTR AVAILIBLE AND WEAK LIFT SPILLING E...KEPT
CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PTCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOWS 50-55.

HIGH PRS MOVES FRTHR E BY FRI ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY.
AFTR MORNING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE...XPCT TO SEE A GRDL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN CU DECK DRNG THE AFTRN. LINGERING MSTR
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WRMR WITH HIGHS
70-75 CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF THE BAY. LINGERING SHWRS FRI EVENING
THEN REMAINING PT CLDY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DATA SUGGESTS ANTHR CHC FOR STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. LOWS
IN THE L-M50S.

WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SAT SHUNTING ANY PCPN SOUTH OF
THE FA. WARM UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS M-U70 CSTL AREAS
NEAR 80 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU
FRI...WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES APPROACHES AND SLIDES ACRS THE
AREA. DID NOT ADD A -SHRA TO ANY TAF SITES ON THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT RIC AND SBY COULD RECEIVE A -SHRA LATER THIS AFTN
INTO FRI MORNG. COULD ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
209 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WX PATTERN SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. SFC HI PRES HAS MOVED FM ERN
LAKES RGN TO NEW ENG BY THIS MRNG. DRY AIR FM THE NNE RMNS IN
PLACES SWD TO ERN NC. MEANWHILE...RIBBON OF MOISTURE FOUND FM THE
CNTRL/WRN CAROLINAS NNW TO THE ERN OH VLY. ANOTHER AREA OF RA
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INTO FAR WRN AREAS OF FA THIS MRNG...BUT DRY
AIR TO THE E HOLDING ITS PROGRESS (TO THE E) AT BAY. 13Z/16 RUC
KEEPS DRY WX E OF I95 THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...W/ THE PTNTL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY LGT RA (POPS MNLY  20-40%) REACHING PORTIONS OF THE
I 95 CORRIDOR (ALG W/ INCRSG CLDNS). WILL HAVE SUNNY-PC E...VRB
CLDS- MCLDY W. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S OVR PIEDMONT IN CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO THE M60S- L70S E OF I 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MSTR FIELDS ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES ASSCTD WITH SRN TROF MOVES NNE INTO THE
SFC RIDGE. DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MSTR POOLS IVOF THE SFC TROF
TO THE NW OF FA WITH ANTHR WEAKER ENERGY PULSE ALONG THE SRN TROF
LEAVING MOST OF THE AKQ FA BTWN SYSTMS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SPRT FOR PCPN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FCST GIVEN THE
ABOVE SCENARIO. KEPT THE EVENING DRY ALONG/E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. KEPT 20-30 POPS OVR WRN MOST PIEDMONT CNTYS.
GIVEN THE AMT OF MSTR AVAILIBLE AND WEAK LIFT SPILLING E...KEPT
CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PTCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOWS 50-55.

HIGH PRS MOVES FRTHR E BY FRI ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY.
AFTR MORNING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE...XPCT TO SEE A GRDL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN CU DECK DRNG THE AFTRN. LINGERING MSTR
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WRMR WITH HIGHS
70-75 CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF THE BAY. LINGERING SHWRS FRI EVENING
THEN REMAINING PT CLDY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DATA SUGGESTS ANTHR CHC FOR STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. LOWS
IN THE L-M50S.

WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SAT SHUNTING ANY PCPN SOUTH OF
THE FA. WARM UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS M-U70 CSTL AREAS
NEAR 80 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. HI PRES WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU
FRI...WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES APPROACHES AND SLIDES ACRS THE
AREA. DID NOT ADD A -SHRA TO ANY TAF SITES ON THE 18Z
ISSUANCE...BUT RIC AND SBY COULD RECEIVE A -SHRA LATER THIS AFTN
INTO FRI MORNG. COULD ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AND MOVES THRU.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161423
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1023 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WX PATTERN SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. SFC HI PRES HAS MOVED FM ERN
LAKES RGN TO NEW ENG BY THIS MRNG. DRY AIR FM THE NNE RMNS IN
PLACES SWD TO ERN NC. MEANWHILE...RIBBON OF MOISTURE FOUND FM THE
CNTRL/WRN CAROLINAS NNW TO THE ERN OH VLY. ANOTHER AREA OF RA
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INTO FAR WRN AREAS OF FA THIS MRNG...BUT DRY
AIR TO THE E HOLDING ITS PROGRESS (TO THE E) AT BAY. 13Z/16 RUC
KEEPS DRY WX E OF I95 THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...W/ THE PTNTL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY LGT RA (POPS MNLY  20-40%) REACHING PORTIONS OF THE
I 95 CORRIDOR (ALG W/ INCRSG CLDNS). WILL HAVE SUNNY-PC E...VRB
CLDS- MCLDY W. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S OVR PIEDMONT IN CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO THE M60S- L70S E OF I 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MSTR FIELDS ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES ASSCTD WITH SRN TROF MOVES NNE INTO THE
SFC RIDGE. DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MSTR POOLS IVOF THE SFC TROF
TO THE NW OF FA WITH ANTHR WEAKER ENERGY PULSE ALONG THE SRN TROF
LEAVING MOST OF THE AKQ FA BTWN SYSTMS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SPRT FOR PCPN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FCST GIVEN THE
ABOVE SCENARIO. KEPT THE EVENING DRY ALONG/E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. KEPT 20-30 POPS OVR WRN MOST PIEDMONT CNTYS.
GIVEN THE AMT OF MSTR AVAILIBLE AND WEAK LIFT SPILLING E...KEPT
CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PTCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOWS 50-55.

HIGH PRS MOVES FRTHR E BY FRI ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY.
AFTR MORNING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE...XPCT TO SEE A GRDL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN CU DECK DRNG THE AFTRN. LINGERING MSTR
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WRMR WITH HIGHS
70-75 CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF THE BAY. LINGERING SHWRS FRI EVENING
THEN REMAINING PT CLDY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DATA SUGGESTS ANTHR CHC FOR STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. LOWS
IN THE L-M50S.

WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SAT SHUNTING ANY PCPN SOUTH OF
THE FA. WARM UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS M-U70 CSTL AREAS
NEAR 80 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL KEEP ANY PCPN
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A BKN-OVC
DECK AROUND 5000FT DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTN ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161423
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1023 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WX PATTERN SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. SFC HI PRES HAS MOVED FM ERN
LAKES RGN TO NEW ENG BY THIS MRNG. DRY AIR FM THE NNE RMNS IN
PLACES SWD TO ERN NC. MEANWHILE...RIBBON OF MOISTURE FOUND FM THE
CNTRL/WRN CAROLINAS NNW TO THE ERN OH VLY. ANOTHER AREA OF RA
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INTO FAR WRN AREAS OF FA THIS MRNG...BUT DRY
AIR TO THE E HOLDING ITS PROGRESS (TO THE E) AT BAY. 13Z/16 RUC
KEEPS DRY WX E OF I95 THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...W/ THE PTNTL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY LGT RA (POPS MNLY  20-40%) REACHING PORTIONS OF THE
I 95 CORRIDOR (ALG W/ INCRSG CLDNS). WILL HAVE SUNNY-PC E...VRB
CLDS- MCLDY W. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S OVR PIEDMONT IN CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO THE M60S- L70S E OF I 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MSTR FIELDS ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES ASSCTD WITH SRN TROF MOVES NNE INTO THE
SFC RIDGE. DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MSTR POOLS IVOF THE SFC TROF
TO THE NW OF FA WITH ANTHR WEAKER ENERGY PULSE ALONG THE SRN TROF
LEAVING MOST OF THE AKQ FA BTWN SYSTMS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SPRT FOR PCPN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FCST GIVEN THE
ABOVE SCENARIO. KEPT THE EVENING DRY ALONG/E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. KEPT 20-30 POPS OVR WRN MOST PIEDMONT CNTYS.
GIVEN THE AMT OF MSTR AVAILIBLE AND WEAK LIFT SPILLING E...KEPT
CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PTCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOWS 50-55.

HIGH PRS MOVES FRTHR E BY FRI ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY.
AFTR MORNING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE...XPCT TO SEE A GRDL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN CU DECK DRNG THE AFTRN. LINGERING MSTR
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WRMR WITH HIGHS
70-75 CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF THE BAY. LINGERING SHWRS FRI EVENING
THEN REMAINING PT CLDY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DATA SUGGESTS ANTHR CHC FOR STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. LOWS
IN THE L-M50S.

WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SAT SHUNTING ANY PCPN SOUTH OF
THE FA. WARM UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS M-U70 CSTL AREAS
NEAR 80 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL KEEP ANY PCPN
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A BKN-OVC
DECK AROUND 5000FT DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTN ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161423
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1023 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WX PATTERN SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. SFC HI PRES HAS MOVED FM ERN
LAKES RGN TO NEW ENG BY THIS MRNG. DRY AIR FM THE NNE RMNS IN
PLACES SWD TO ERN NC. MEANWHILE...RIBBON OF MOISTURE FOUND FM THE
CNTRL/WRN CAROLINAS NNW TO THE ERN OH VLY. ANOTHER AREA OF RA
ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INTO FAR WRN AREAS OF FA THIS MRNG...BUT DRY
AIR TO THE E HOLDING ITS PROGRESS (TO THE E) AT BAY. 13Z/16 RUC
KEEPS DRY WX E OF I95 THROUGH THE AFTN HRS...W/ THE PTNTL FOR AT
LEAST SPOTTY LGT RA (POPS MNLY  20-40%) REACHING PORTIONS OF THE
I 95 CORRIDOR (ALG W/ INCRSG CLDNS). WILL HAVE SUNNY-PC E...VRB
CLDS- MCLDY W. HI TEMPS FM THE L/M60S OVR PIEDMONT IN CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO THE M60S- L70S E OF I 95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MSTR FIELDS ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES ASSCTD WITH SRN TROF MOVES NNE INTO THE
SFC RIDGE. DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MSTR POOLS IVOF THE SFC TROF
TO THE NW OF FA WITH ANTHR WEAKER ENERGY PULSE ALONG THE SRN TROF
LEAVING MOST OF THE AKQ FA BTWN SYSTMS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SPRT FOR PCPN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FCST GIVEN THE
ABOVE SCENARIO. KEPT THE EVENING DRY ALONG/E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. KEPT 20-30 POPS OVR WRN MOST PIEDMONT CNTYS.
GIVEN THE AMT OF MSTR AVAILIBLE AND WEAK LIFT SPILLING E...KEPT
CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PTCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOWS 50-55.

HIGH PRS MOVES FRTHR E BY FRI ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY.
AFTR MORNING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE...XPCT TO SEE A GRDL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN CU DECK DRNG THE AFTRN. LINGERING MSTR
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WRMR WITH HIGHS
70-75 CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF THE BAY. LINGERING SHWRS FRI EVENING
THEN REMAINING PT CLDY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DATA SUGGESTS ANTHR CHC FOR STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. LOWS
IN THE L-M50S.

WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SAT SHUNTING ANY PCPN SOUTH OF
THE FA. WARM UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS M-U70 CSTL AREAS
NEAR 80 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL KEEP ANY PCPN
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A BKN-OVC
DECK AROUND 5000FT DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTN ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160723
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
323 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A NEARLY STNRY FRONTAL BNDRY SNAKING IT WAY
ACROSS THE SERN STATES TO THE TN VLLY WITH A SFC TROF XTNDG NE ALONG
THE APPLACH MTS. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVR UPSTATE NY.
BATTLE CONTS TO BE DRAWN BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR NOSING SOUTH FROM THE
HIGH VERSUS THE OVERRUNNING MSTR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST MODEL DATA FAVORS THE DRIER AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA TODAY. XPCTN BEING ACROSS SW VA PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR NE NC
CNTYS WHERE 20-30 POP WILL BE MAINTAINED. KEPT IF DRY ELSEWHERE.
TSCTNS SHOW ENUF DRYING FOR AT LEAST PT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS TODAY. MSTLY CLDY TO CLDY ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MSTR FIELDS ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES ASSCTD WITH SRN TROF MOVES NNE INTO THE
SFC RIDGE. DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MSTR POOLS IVOF THE SFC TROF
TO THE NW OF FA WITH ANTHR WEAKER ENERGY PULSE ALONG THE SRN TROF
LEAVING MOST OF THE AKQ FA BTWN SYSTMS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SPRT FOR PCPN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FCST GIVEN THE
ABOVE SCENARIO. KEPT THE EVENING DRY ALONG/E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. KEPT 20-30 POPS OVR WRN MOST PIEDMONT CNTYS.
GIVEN THE AMT OF MSTR AVAILIBLE AND WEAK LIFT SPILLING E...KEPT
CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PTCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOWS 50-55.

HIGH PRS MOVES FRTHR E BY FRI ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY.
AFTR MORNING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE...XPCT TO SEE A GRDL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN CU DECK DRNG THE AFTRN. LINGERING MSTR
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WRMR WITH HIGHS
70-75 CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF THE BAY. LINGERING SHWRS FRI EVENING
THEN REMAINING PT CLDY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DATA SUGGESTS ANTHR CHC FOR STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. LOWS
IN THE L-M50S.

WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SAT SHUNTING ANY PCPN SOUTH OF
THE FA. WARM UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS M-U70 CSTL AREAS
NEAR 80 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL KEEP ANY PCPN
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A BKN-OVC
DECK AROUND 5000FT DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTN ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160723
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
323 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING A NEARLY STNRY FRONTAL BNDRY SNAKING IT WAY
ACROSS THE SERN STATES TO THE TN VLLY WITH A SFC TROF XTNDG NE ALONG
THE APPLACH MTS. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVR UPSTATE NY.
BATTLE CONTS TO BE DRAWN BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR NOSING SOUTH FROM THE
HIGH VERSUS THE OVERRUNNING MSTR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST MODEL DATA FAVORS THE DRIER AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA TODAY. XPCTN BEING ACROSS SW VA PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR NE NC
CNTYS WHERE 20-30 POP WILL BE MAINTAINED. KEPT IF DRY ELSEWHERE.
TSCTNS SHOW ENUF DRYING FOR AT LEAST PT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS TODAY. MSTLY CLDY TO CLDY ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MSTR FIELDS ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES ASSCTD WITH SRN TROF MOVES NNE INTO THE
SFC RIDGE. DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MSTR POOLS IVOF THE SFC TROF
TO THE NW OF FA WITH ANTHR WEAKER ENERGY PULSE ALONG THE SRN TROF
LEAVING MOST OF THE AKQ FA BTWN SYSTMS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SPRT FOR PCPN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FCST GIVEN THE
ABOVE SCENARIO. KEPT THE EVENING DRY ALONG/E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR
AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. KEPT 20-30 POPS OVR WRN MOST PIEDMONT CNTYS.
GIVEN THE AMT OF MSTR AVAILIBLE AND WEAK LIFT SPILLING E...KEPT
CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PTCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOWS 50-55.

HIGH PRS MOVES FRTHR E BY FRI ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY.
AFTR MORNING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE...XPCT TO SEE A GRDL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN CU DECK DRNG THE AFTRN. LINGERING MSTR
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WRMR WITH HIGHS
70-75 CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF THE BAY. LINGERING SHWRS FRI EVENING
THEN REMAINING PT CLDY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. DATA SUGGESTS ANTHR CHC FOR STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. LOWS
IN THE L-M50S.

WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SAT SHUNTING ANY PCPN SOUTH OF
THE FA. WARM UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS M-U70 CSTL AREAS
NEAR 80 WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL KEEP ANY PCPN
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A BKN-OVC
DECK AROUND 5000FT DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTN ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5
FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS
RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160529
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY, WITH SEVERAL SCATTERED WEAK WAVES OF
SHRAS MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH
JIVES WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT
RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM
THE W-SW DUE TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW
SPITS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP
LOWS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING
LOW TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F
ELSEWHERE UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL KEEP ANY PCPN
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A BKN-OVC
DECK AROUND 5000FT DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTN ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160529
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY, WITH SEVERAL SCATTERED WEAK WAVES OF
SHRAS MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH
JIVES WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT
RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM
THE W-SW DUE TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW
SPITS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP
LOWS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING
LOW TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F
ELSEWHERE UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL KEEP ANY PCPN
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A BKN-OVC
DECK AROUND 5000FT DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTN ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160529
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY, WITH SEVERAL SCATTERED WEAK WAVES OF
SHRAS MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH
JIVES WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT
RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM
THE W-SW DUE TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW
SPITS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP
LOWS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING
LOW TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F
ELSEWHERE UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL KEEP ANY PCPN
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A BKN-OVC
DECK AROUND 5000FT DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTN ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160529
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY, WITH SEVERAL SCATTERED WEAK WAVES OF
SHRAS MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH
JIVES WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT
RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM
THE W-SW DUE TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW
SPITS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP
LOWS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING
LOW TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F
ELSEWHERE UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL KEEP ANY PCPN
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A BKN-OVC
DECK AROUND 5000FT DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTN ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
946 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY, WITH SEVERAL SCATTERED WEAK WAVES OF
SHRAS MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH
JIVES WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT
RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM
THE W-SW DUE TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW
SPITS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP
LOWS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING
LOW TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F
ELSEWHERE UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
946 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY, WITH SEVERAL SCATTERED WEAK WAVES OF
SHRAS MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH
JIVES WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT
RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM
THE W-SW DUE TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW
SPITS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP
LOWS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING
LOW TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F
ELSEWHERE UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
946 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY, WITH SEVERAL SCATTERED WEAK WAVES OF
SHRAS MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH
JIVES WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT
RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM
THE W-SW DUE TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW
SPITS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP
LOWS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING
LOW TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F
ELSEWHERE UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160146
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
946 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY, WITH SEVERAL SCATTERED WEAK WAVES OF
SHRAS MOVING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH
JIVES WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT
RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM
THE W-SW DUE TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW
SPITS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP
LOWS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING
LOW TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F
ELSEWHERE UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160131
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
931 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO THE
LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH JIVES
WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT RA/SPRINKLES
CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM THE W-SW DUE
TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW SPITS OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP LOWS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING LOW
TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F ELSEWHERE
UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160131
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
931 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO THE
LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH JIVES
WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT RA/SPRINKLES
CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM THE W-SW DUE
TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW SPITS OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP LOWS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING LOW
TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F ELSEWHERE
UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160131
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
931 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY...BRINGING
MILDER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER SPELL OF COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS FEATURES 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS ALSO
RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH,
WEAK FRONT/LLVL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VLY. LITTLE FORECAST CHANGE MADE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU, BUT DID DELAY POP ONSET SLIGHTLY INTO THE
LATER MORNING HOURS PER LATEST ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...WHICH JIVES
WELL WITH LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. BROAD AREA OF VERY LGT RA/SPRINKLES
CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM THE W-SW DUE
TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH. THUS, WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW SPITS OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES OVER THE US-460 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THU MORNING. BUMPED UP LOWS
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING ERY MORNING LOW
TEMPS L-M 40S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK...45 TO 50F ELSEWHERE
UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY (MORE CLOUDS S-SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO SHUNT DRY AIR S
INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W
OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN/EVE. ELSW...WILL HOLD
POPS TO 20% OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
815 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LYRD CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD OVR THE FA THIS AFTN. AREA OF RA HAS
CONTD TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM THE WSW DUE TO DRY
LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO HI PRES OVR THE GREAT LAKES STATES.
THE DRY LO LVL AIR XPCD TO WIN OUT THROUGH TNGT W/ ANY RA RMNG S
AND W OF THE FA. VRB CLDS-PCLDY NNE TO MCLDY SSW. LO TEMPS MNLY FM
40 TO 45F N TO 45 TO 50F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO PROVIDING DRY
AIR INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY LT
THU...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W OF A
LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN. ELSW...WILL HOLD POPS TO AOB
20%.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
815 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LYRD CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD OVR THE FA THIS AFTN. AREA OF RA HAS
CONTD TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM THE WSW DUE TO DRY
LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO HI PRES OVR THE GREAT LAKES STATES.
THE DRY LO LVL AIR XPCD TO WIN OUT THROUGH TNGT W/ ANY RA RMNG S
AND W OF THE FA. VRB CLDS-PCLDY NNE TO MCLDY SSW. LO TEMPS MNLY FM
40 TO 45F N TO 45 TO 50F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO PROVIDING DRY
AIR INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY LT
THU...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W OF A
LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN. ELSW...WILL HOLD POPS TO AOB
20%.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
815 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LYRD CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD OVR THE FA THIS AFTN. AREA OF RA HAS
CONTD TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM THE WSW DUE TO DRY
LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO HI PRES OVR THE GREAT LAKES STATES.
THE DRY LO LVL AIR XPCD TO WIN OUT THROUGH TNGT W/ ANY RA RMNG S
AND W OF THE FA. VRB CLDS-PCLDY NNE TO MCLDY SSW. LO TEMPS MNLY FM
40 TO 45F N TO 45 TO 50F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO PROVIDING DRY
AIR INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY LT
THU...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W OF A
LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN. ELSW...WILL HOLD POPS TO AOB
20%.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
815 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LYRD CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD OVR THE FA THIS AFTN. AREA OF RA HAS
CONTD TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM THE WSW DUE TO DRY
LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO HI PRES OVR THE GREAT LAKES STATES.
THE DRY LO LVL AIR XPCD TO WIN OUT THROUGH TNGT W/ ANY RA RMNG S
AND W OF THE FA. VRB CLDS-PCLDY NNE TO MCLDY SSW. LO TEMPS MNLY FM
40 TO 45F N TO 45 TO 50F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO PROVIDING DRY
AIR INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY LT
THU...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W OF A
LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN. ELSW...WILL HOLD POPS TO AOB
20%.

AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO
DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU
NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN
STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT
ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE
CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL
HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT.

HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE
L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE
CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN
INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM
FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20%
NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY
INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE
AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE
WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF
THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH
BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR
GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS
AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS
ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED
NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20
NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE
WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL
WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU
MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5
FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS





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