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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230639
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
239 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC
WHILE SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ARE CONTINUING IN THE
PIEDMONT.

MAINLY DRY CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...LOWS IN THE UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY TO MSTLY CLDY SKY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS IS
EXPECTED. CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THU MORNG AS MOISTURE AND
MID-LVL ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY THU AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SVR WX HOWEVER AN ISO DAMAGING WING GUST IS PSBL AS
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF.
DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY HOWEVER COVERAGE IS ENUF TO
WARRANT LIKELY (70%) POPS. BEST TIMING FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN
THE AFTN/ERLY EVNG HRS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE MID ATLANTIC
SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LVL JET STREAK. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ERLY FRI AS THE COLD
FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR
OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN (THOUGH KEEPING A CHC FOR SHWRS
OVER ERN AREAS WITH THE UPR-LVL TROF STILL WEST OF THE AREA) AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND
TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LO TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SFC HI
PRES BLDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT LEADING TO A MSTLY SNY SKY AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR MODEST HGT RISES ALOFT, AND WITH IT A GENERAL INCREMENTAL
RAMPING UP OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTN/EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION AND A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE WEST.

BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RELOADS FOR THE MID TO LATTER
POTION OF THE WEEK, AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MON-WED, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GRADUAL LWRG OF CIGS INTO THE MRNG HRS ACRS THE FA. SCT-BKN ST AOB
1KFT BEGINNING TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NC...XPCD TO ARRIVE
FM THE S THROUGH THE ERY/MID MRNG HRS. ADDITIONALLY...AREA OF
SHRAS/FEW EMBEDDED T INVOF PDMNT OF VA/NC WILL BE MOVING VRY SLOLY
TO THE E IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS XPCD ACRS THE FA
INTO THE EVE HRS ALG W/ INCRSG COVERAGE OF SHRAS/ISOLD-SCT T. PTNTL
FOR IFR VSBYS IN HVY RA. RA SLO TO END THIS EVE...ALG W/ ONLY
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. GENLY (ANY) CIGS FRI VFR (ABV 3KFT) ALG
W/ DVLPG GUSTY NW WNDS (TO 25-30 KT) BY AFTN. WNDS SLO TO SUBSIDE
INTO SAT. LO PROB MVFR CIGS INVOF CST FRI NGT INTO SAT AS COASTAL LO
PRES SLO TO DVLP (OFFSHORE). OTRW...VFR CONDS XPCD SAT THROUGH
MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS BEGUN AND
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS SLOWLY RAMP UP AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS RAMPING UPWARD INTO SCA RANGE OVER SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND HOISTED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES) WITH THIS EVENING`S PACKAGE.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT/ERY FRI THROUGH FRI
AFTN...WITH A STRONG N-NW SURGE OF WINDS (~20 KT AND GUSTY)
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SCA FLAGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-SCA WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SAT AFTN THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...JDM/MAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230528
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
128 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC
WHILE SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ARE CONTINUING IN THE
PIEDMONT.

MAINLY DRY CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...LOWS IN THE UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY TO MSTLY CLDY SKY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS IS
EXPECTED. CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THU MORNG AS MOISTURE AND
MID-LVL ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY THU AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SVR WX HOWEVER AN ISO DAMAGING WING GUST IS PSBL AS
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF.
DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY HOWEVER COVERAGE IS ENUF TO
WARRANT LIKELY (70%) POPS. BEST TIMING FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN
THE AFTN/ERLY EVNG HRS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE MID ATLANTIC
SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LVL JET STREAK. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ERLY FRI AS THE COLD
FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR
OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN (THOUGH KEEPING A CHC FOR SHWRS
OVER ERN AREAS WITH THE UPR-LVL TROF STILL WEST OF THE AREA) AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND
TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LO TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SFC HI
PRES BLDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT LEADING TO A MSTLY SNY SKY AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR MODEST HGT RISES ALOFT, AND WITH IT A GENERAL INCREMENTAL
RAMPING UP OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTN/EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION AND A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE WEST.

BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RELOADS FOR THE MID TO LATTER
POTION OF THE WEEK, AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MON-WED, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THURS MORNING.

SAME AS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...AM EXPECTING A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED THURS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTN...BUT PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS 15Z. ISOLD T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURS AFTN.

OUTLOOK: FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH LAGGING UPR
TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE COULD BE
LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT AND DEFINITELY SUN...AS HIGH PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS BEGUN AND
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS SLOWLY RAMP UP AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS RAMPING UPWARD INTO SCA RANGE OVER SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND HOISTED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES) WITH THIS EVENING`S PACKAGE.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT/ERY FRI THROUGH FRI
AFTN...WITH A STRONG N-NW SURGE OF WINDS (~20 KT AND GUSTY)
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SCA FLAGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-SCA WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SAT AFTN THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JDM/MPR
MARINE...JDM/MAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230023
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
823 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC
THIS EVENING. STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ERN PIEDMONT FROM
ROUGHLY FARMVILLE TO LOUISA...HOWEVER PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER
WEST AND OUT OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. TEMPS
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...LOWS IN
THE UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY TO MSTLY CLDY SKY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS IS EXPECTED. CHCS FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE THU MORNG AS MOISTURE AND MID-LVL ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY THU AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SVR WX HOWEVER AN ISO DAMAGING WING GUST IS PSBL AS
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF.
DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY HOWEVER COVERAGE IS ENUF TO
WARRANT LIKELY (70%) POPS. BEST TIMING FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN
THE AFTN/ERLY EVNG HRS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE MID ATLANTIC
SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LVL JET STREAK. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ERLY FRI AS THE COLD
FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR
OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN (THOUGH KEEPING A CHC FOR SHWRS
OVER ERN AREAS WITH THE UPR-LVL TROF STILL WEST OF THE AREA) AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND
TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LO TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SFC HI
PRES BLDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT LEADING TO A MSTLY SNY SKY AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR MODEST HGT RISES ALOFT, AND WITH IT A GENERAL INCREMENTAL
RAMPING UP OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTN/EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION AND A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE WEST.

BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RELOADS FOR THE MID TO LATTER
POTION OF THE WEEK, AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MON-WED, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THURS MORNING.

SAME AS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...AM EXPECTING A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

A SLOW LIFTING OF THE CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED THURS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTN...BUT PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS MAY START AS EARLY AS 15Z. ISOLD T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURS AFTN.

OUTLOOK: FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH LAGGING UPR
TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE COULD BE
LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT AND DEFINITELY SUN...AS HIGH PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAS BEGUN AND
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS SLOWLY RAMP UP AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS RAMPING UPWARD INTO SCA RANGE OVER SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND HOISTED THE SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES) WITH THIS EVENING`S PACKAGE.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT/ERY FRI THROUGH FRI
AFTN...WITH A STRONG N-NW SURGE OF WINDS (~20 KT AND GUSTY)
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SCA FLAGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-SCA WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SAT AFTN THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM/MAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222256
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC
THIS EVENING. STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ERN PIEDMONT FROM
ROUGHLY FARMVILLE TO LOUISA...HOWEVER PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER
WEST AND OUT OF THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAINLY DRY CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. TEMPS
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...LOWS IN
THE UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY TO MSTLY CLDY SKY. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS IS EXPECTED. CHCS FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE THU MORNG AS MOISTURE AND MID-LVL ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY THU AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SVR WX HOWEVER AN ISO DAMAGING WING GUST IS PSBL AS
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF.
DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY HOWEVER COVERAGE IS ENUF TO
WARRANT LIKELY (70%) POPS. BEST TIMING FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN
THE AFTN/ERLY EVNG HRS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE MID ATLANTIC
SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LVL JET STREAK. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ERLY FRI AS THE COLD
FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR
OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN (THOUGH KEEPING A CHC FOR SHWRS
OVER ERN AREAS WITH THE UPR-LVL TROF STILL WEST OF THE AREA) AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND
TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LO TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SFC HI
PRES BLDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT LEADING TO A MSTLY SNY SKY AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR MODEST HGT RISES ALOFT, AND WITH IT A GENERAL INCREMENTAL
RAMPING UP OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTN/EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION AND A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE WEST.

BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RELOADS FOR THE MID TO LATTER
POTION OF THE WEEK, AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MON-WED, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT-BKN CU / SC ARND 3K FT CONTS THRU 00Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSRA NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS OF SCT CONVECTION
DVLPNG ACROSS NE NC. GUSTY S-SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT.

LATEST TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF LOW LVL MSTR ARND AFTR 04Z FOR A STRATUS
DECK TO DVLP ONCE AGAIN. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOME DENSE FOG IVOF SBY
LATE TONITE. OTW...PATCHY MVFR FOG PSBL.

SLOW LIFTG OF THE CLOUD DECK THURS MORN. CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE
W DRNG THE AFTRN WITH PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FTR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK: FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH LAGGING UPR
TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE COULD BE
LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE CHES BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AS PER LATEST OBS.
HOWEVER, HV HOISTED SCA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS
WINDS /WAVES/SEAS SLOWLY RAMP UP AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS
RAMPING UPWARD INTO SCA RANGE OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL NOT HOIST THE HEADLINE JUST
YET, BUT AN ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT/ERY FRI THROUGH FRI
AFTN...WITH A STRONG N-NW SURGE OF WINDS (~20 KT AND GUSTY)
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SCA FLAGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-SCA WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SAT AFTN THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222129
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
529 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER SE
AREAS THRU ERLY THIS EVENG. MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN
WITH PWATS ~1.8" AND WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT/FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. COVERAGE SHUD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE
TO A LACK FORCING AND BEST INSTABILITY (NW AREAS) DISPLACED FROM
BEST MOISTURE (SE AREAS). NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX DUE TO MARGINAL
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR AND FORCING. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY SHWRS WILL SUBSIDE THRU THE EVENG
HRS...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. OTW...RAIN
CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA MAY CREEP INTO FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...LOWS IN THE UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY TO MSTLY CLDY SKY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS IS
EXPECTED. CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THU MORNG AS MOISTURE AND
MID-LVL ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY THU AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SVR WX HOWEVER AN ISO DAMAGING WING GUST IS PSBL AS
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF.
DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY HOWEVER COVERAGE IS ENUF TO
WARRANT LIKELY (70%) POPS. BEST TIMING FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN
THE AFTN/ERLY EVNG HRS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE MID ATLANTIC
SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LVL JET STREAK. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ERLY FRI AS THE COLD
FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR
OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN (THOUGH KEEPING A CHC FOR SHWRS
OVER ERN AREAS WITH THE UPR-LVL TROF STILL WEST OF THE AREA) AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND
TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LO TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SFC HI
PRES BLDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT LEADING TO A MSTLY SNY SKY AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR MODEST HGT RISES ALOFT, AND WITH IT A GENERAL INCREMENTAL
RAMPING UP OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTN/EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION AND A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE WEST.

BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RELOADS FOR THE MID TO LATTER
POTION OF THE WEEK, AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MON-WED, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT-BKN CU / SC ARND 3K FT CONTS THRU 00Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSRA NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS OF SCT CONVECTION
DVLPNG ACROSS NE NC. GUSTY S-SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT.

LATEST TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF LOW LVL MSTR ARND AFTR 04Z FOR A STRATUS
DECK TO DVLP ONCE AGAIN. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOME DENSE FOG IVOF SBY
LATE TONITE. OTW...PATCHY MVFR FOG PSBL.

SLOW LIFTG OF THE CLOUD DECK THURS MORN. CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE
W DRNG THE AFTRN WITH PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FTR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK: FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH LAGGING UPR
TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE COULD BE
LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE CHES BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AS PER LATEST OBS.
HOWEVER, HV HOISTED SCA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS
WINDS /WAVES/SEAS SLOWLY RAMP UP AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS
RAMPING UPWARD INTO SCA RANGE OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL NOT HOIST THE HEADLINE JUST
YET, BUT AN ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT/ERY FRI THROUGH FRI
AFTN...WITH A STRONG N-NW SURGE OF WINDS (~20 KT AND GUSTY)
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SCA FLAGS ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-SCA WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT SAT AFTN THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222022
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
422 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER SE
AREAS THRU ERLY THIS EVENG. MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN
WITH PWATS ~1.8" AND WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT/FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. COVERAGE SHUD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE
TO A LACK FORCING AND BEST INSTABILITY (NW AREAS) DISPLACED FROM
BEST MOISTURE (SE AREAS). NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX DUE TO MARGINAL
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR AND FORCING. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY SHWRS WILL SUBSIDE THRU THE EVENG
HRS...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. OTW...RAIN
CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA MAY CREEP INTO FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...LOWS IN THE UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY TO MSTLY CLDY SKY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS IS
EXPECTED. CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THU MORNG AS MOISTURE AND
MID-LVL ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY THU AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SVR WX HOWEVER AN ISO DAMAGING WING GUST IS PSBL AS
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF.
DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY HOWEVER COVERAGE IS ENUF TO
WARRANT LIKELY (70%) POPS. BEST TIMING FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN
THE AFTN/ERLY EVNG HRS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE MID ATLANTIC
SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LVL JET STREAK. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ERLY FRI AS THE COLD
FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR
OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN (THOUGH KEEPING A CHC FOR SHWRS
OVER ERN AREAS WITH THE UPR-LVL TROF STILL WEST OF THE AREA) AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND
TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LO TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SFC HI
PRES BLDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT LEADING TO A MSTLY SNY SKY AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST HGT RISES ALOFT,
AND A GENERAL INCREMENTAL RAMPING UP OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AFTN/EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
TO THE WEST.

BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RELOADS FOR THE MID TO LATTER
POTION OF THE WEEK, AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MON-WED, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT-BKN CU / SC ARND 3K FT CONTS THRU 00Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSRA NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS OF SCT CONVECTION
DVLPNG ACROSS NE NC. GUSTY S-SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT.

LATEST TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF LOW LVL MSTR ARND AFTR 04Z FOR A STRATUS
DECK TO DVLP ONCE AGAIN. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOME DENSE FOG IVOF SBY
LATE TONITE. OTW...PATCHY MVFR FOG PSBL.

SLOW LIFTG OF THE CLOUD DECK THURS MORN. CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE
W DRNG THE AFTRN WITH PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FTR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK: FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH LAGGING UPR
TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE COULD BE
LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE CHES BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AS PER LATEST OBS.
HOWEVER, HV HOISTED SCA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS
WINDS /WAVES/SEAS SLOWLY RAMP UP AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT INTO FRI AFTN...WITH A STRONG
NW OR N SURGE OF WINDS (~20 KT AND GUSTY) EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. CONDITIONS BECOME SCA WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT LATER
SAT THROUGH MONDAY AS HI PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER SE
AREAS THRU ERLY THIS EVENG. MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN
WITH PWATS ~1.8" AND WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT/FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. COVERAGE SHUD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE
TO A LACK FORCING AND BEST INSTABILITY (NW AREAS) DISPLACED FROM
BEST MOISTURE (SE AREAS). NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX DUE TO MARGINAL
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR AND FORCING. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY SHWRS WILL SUBSIDE THRU THE EVENG
HRS...LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. OTW...RAIN
CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA MAY CREEP INTO FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...LOWS IN THE UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY TO MSTLY CLDY SKY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS IS
EXPECTED. CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THU MORNG AS MOISTURE AND
MID-LVL ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHCS FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THRU THE DAY THU AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES AND LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SVR WX HOWEVER AN ISO DAMAGING WING GUST IS PSBL AS
SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF.
DON`T EXPECT IT TO RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY HOWEVER COVERAGE IS ENUF TO
WARRANT LIKELY (70%) POPS. BEST TIMING FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN
THE AFTN/ERLY EVNG HRS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE MID ATLANTIC
SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LVL JET STREAK. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE
COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ERLY FRI AS THE COLD
FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR
OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN (THOUGH KEEPING A CHC FOR SHWRS
OVER ERN AREAS WITH THE UPR-LVL TROF STILL WEST OF THE AREA) AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND
TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LO TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SFC HI
PRES BLDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT LEADING TO A MSTLY SNY SKY AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST HGT RISES ALOFT,
AND A GENERAL INCREMENTAL RAMPING UP OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AFTN/EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

BERMUDA-HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RELOADS FOR THE MID TO LATTER
POTION OF THE WEEK AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT-BKN CU / SC ARND 3K FT CONTS THRU 00Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSRA NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS OF SCT CONVECTION
DVLPNG ACROSS NE NC. GUSTY S-SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT.

LATEST TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF LOW LVL MSTR ARND AFTR 04Z FOR A STRATUS
DECK TO DVLP ONCE AGAIN. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOME DENSE FOG IVOF SBY
LATE TONITE. OTW...PATCHY MVFR FOG PSBL.

SLOW LIFTG OF THE CLOUD DECK THURS MORN. CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE
W DRNG THE AFTRN WITH PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FTR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK: FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH LAGGING UPR
TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE COULD BE
LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE CHES BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AS PER LATEST OBS.
HOWEVER, HV HOISTED SCA FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS
WINDS /WAVES/SEAS SLOWLY RAMP UP AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT INTO FRI AFTN...WITH A STRONG
NW OR N SURGE OF WINDS (~20 KT AND GUSTY) EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. CONDITIONS BECOME SCA WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15KT LATER
SAT THROUGH MONDAY AS HI PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
212 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT-BKN CU / SC ARND 3K FT CONTS THRU 00Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSRA NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS OF SCT CONVECTION
DVLPNG ACROSS NE NC. GUSTY S-SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT.

LATEST TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF LOW LVL MSTR ARND AFTR 04Z FOR A STRATUS
DECK TO DVLP ONCE AGAIN. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOME DENSE FOG IVOF SBY
LATE TONITE. OTW...PATCHY MVFR FOG PSBL.

SLOW LIFTG OF THE CLOUD DECK THURS MORN. CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE
W DRNG THE AFTRN WITH PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FTR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK: FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH LAGGING UPR
TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE COULD BE
LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
PER CRNT OBS...DECIDED TO HOIST MARGINAL SCA HEADLINES (15-20KTS) FOR
CHES BAY TDY.

PVS DSCN:
HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE THREE NRN CSTL WTRS FM THIS EVENG THRU
THU EVENG. S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS /WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA
OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. COLD FRNT WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS
LATE THU NGT INTO FRI AFTN. STRONG NW OR N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
AND GUSTY (LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS) WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ASSOC LAGGING UPR TROF FRI AFTN INTO SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM
THE NW FRI NGT THRU SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221338
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
938 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS XPCTD TO BURN OFF NEXT 2-4 HRS. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
SCT-BKN CU BTWN 3-4K FT THIS AFTRN. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FCST AS
CHCS ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
PER CRNT OBS...DECIDED TO HOIST MARGINAL SCA HEADLINES (15-20KTS) FOR
CHES BAY TDY.

PVS DSCN:
HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE THREE NRN CSTL WTRS FM THIS EVENG THRU
THU EVENG. S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS /WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA
OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. COLD FRNT WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS
LATE THU NGT INTO FRI AFTN. STRONG NW OR N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
AND GUSTY (LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS) WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ASSOC LAGGING UPR TROF FRI AFTN INTO SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM
THE NW FRI NGT THRU SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR/TMG
MARINE...MPR/TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221248
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
848 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
WELL AS SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 70.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WED AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.

FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS XPCTD TO BURN OFF NEXT 2-4 HRS. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
SCT-BKN CU BTWN 3-4K FT THIS AFTRN. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FCST AS
CHCS ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
PER CRNT OBS...DECIDED TO HOIST MARGINAL SCA HEADLINES (15-20KTS) FOR
CHES BAY TDY.

PVS DSCN:
HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE THREE NRN CSTL WTRS FM THIS EVENG THRU
THU EVENG. S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS /WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA
OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. COLD FRNT WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS
LATE THU NGT INTO FRI AFTN. STRONG NW OR N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
AND GUSTY (LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS) WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ASSOC LAGGING UPR TROF FRI AFTN INTO SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM
THE NW FRI NGT THRU SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR/TMG
MARINE...MPR/TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221149
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
749 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
WELL AS SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 70.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WED AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.

FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS XPCTD TO BURN OFF NEXT 2-4 HRS. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
SCT-BKN CU BTWN 3-4K FT THIS AFTRN. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FCST AS
CHCS ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE THREE NRN CSTL WTRS FM THIS EVENG THRU
THU EVENG. S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
/WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WTRS. COLD FRNT WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT INTO
FRI AFTN. STRONG NW OR N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTY (LIKELY
SCA CONDITIONS) WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND ASSOC LAGGING UPR
TROF FRI AFTN INTO SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM THE NW FRI NGT THRU
SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR/TMG
MARINE...TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220914
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
514 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
WELL AS SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 70.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WED AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.

FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OR OCCUR ACRS THE AREA UNTIL ARND
15Z-16Z THIS MORNG DUE TO MOIST SSW FLO. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN ISLTD SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENG.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE THREE NRN CSTL WTRS FM THIS EVENG THRU
THU EVENG. S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
/WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WTRS. COLD FRNT WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS LATE THU NGT INTO
FRI AFTN. STRONG NW OR N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTY (LIKELY
SCA CONDITIONS) WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND ASSOC LAGGING UPR
TROF FRI AFTN INTO SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM THE NW FRI NGT THRU
SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220834
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING HAS RESULTED
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
WELL AS SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO DIP BELOW 70.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST WED AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY FORCING.

FOR WED...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OR OCCUR ACRS THE AREA UNTIL ARND
15Z-16Z THIS MORNG DUE TO MOIST SSW FLO. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN ISLTD SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENG.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
INVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220601
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
201 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC...AND THE ONLY
REMAINING SHOWERS ARE JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA BEACH COAST. THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECT TO DIE OUT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE FA
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING DOWN INTO FAR NW COUNTIES
ATTM FROM THE NORTH.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER IF ANY
OBSERVATION SITES REPORT VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 7 STATUTE
MILES...THE OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE HAZE THAN FOG/MIST
(VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT). TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. SW
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AFTER A MID-LVL LO PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OR OCCUR ACRS THE AREA UNTIL ARND
15Z-16Z THIS MORNG DUE TO MOIST SSW FLO. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN ISLTD SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVENG.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THU MORNG. BETTER CHC
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THU AFTN AND EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FM THE W. FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH
LAGGING UPR TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE
COULD BE LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI
NGT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO
AND OVR THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
INVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
819 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC...AND THE ONLY
REMAINING SHOWERS ARE JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA BEACH COAST. THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECT TO DIE OUT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE FA
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING DOWN INTO FAR NW COUNTIES
ATTM FROM THE NORTH.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER IF ANY
OBSERVATION SITES REPORT VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 7 STATUTE
MILES...THE OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE HAZE THAN FOG/MIST
(VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT). TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. SW
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AFTER A MID-LVL LO PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC THIS
EVENING. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE FORMATION OF IFR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CIGS BECOMING IFR AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KECG BETWEEN 06-08Z WED MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
14-15Z. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS FOR KECG OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WED AFTN.

OUTLOOK: IFR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEATHER IMPROVES LATE FRIDAY AND BEYOND
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
INVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...MPR


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220012
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
812 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC...AND THE ONLY
REMAINING SHOWERS ARE JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA BEACH COAST. THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECT TO DIE OUT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE FA
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING DOWN INTO FAR NW COUNTIES
ATTM FROM THE NORTH.

FOR OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...S-SW WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 5 KT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER IF ANY
OBSERVATION SITES REPORT VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN 7 STATUTE
MILES...THE OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE HAZE THAN FOG/MIST
(VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT). TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. SW
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AFTER A MID-LVL LO PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
WILL BE PSBL OVER SE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT ECG THROUGH 20Z. ALL OF THE SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IFR STRATUS IS INDICATED BY MOS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUGHLY FROM 08 TO 14Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. IFR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEATHER IMPROVES FRIDAY AND
BEYOND FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
INVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211947
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY OVER SE AREAS THRU
ERLY THIS EVENG. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS ~1.9"
AND WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX DUE TO MARGINAL
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR AND FORCING. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MAIN MOISTURE AXIS PULLING
OFFSHORE...ANY SHWRS WILL SUBSIDE THRU THE EVENG HRS...LEAVING DRY
CONDS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TNGT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S UNDER A PRTLY
CLDY SKY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF LO STRATUS
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED. SW
FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AFTER A MID-LVL LO PUSHES OFFSHORE TNGT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...NR 50
IVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA / NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
WILL BE PSBL OVER SE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT ECG THROUGH 20Z. ALL OF THE SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IFR STRATUS IS INDICATED BY MOS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUGHLY FROM 08 TO 14Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. IFR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEATHER IMPROVES FRIDAY AND
BEYOND FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN SHORT TERM AS WINDS REMAIN S-SW AOB 15KT THRU WED.
SOME CHANNELING UP THE BAY AS WELL AS SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM
IVOF BUOY 44009 BY WED NITE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF TO GO
WITH A SUSTAINED SCA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ATTM. SCA`S MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS.

CDFRNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU NITE FRI WITH LOW PRS MOVG N
ALONG IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRS GRDNT BTWN THIS LOW AND STRONG
HIGH PRS BLDG IN FROM THE NW FOR PSBL SCA CNDTNS FRI INTO FRI EVE.

OTW...HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUB SCA
CNDTNS XPCTD BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
212 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(PWATS ~1.5 IN) AND MODERATE
CAPE VALUES(~1100 J/KG)...SO GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
ON TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...DECREASING
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 80S
INLAND. HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION REGIONS ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND KEPT 30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
WILL BE PSBL OVER SE PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT ECG THROUGH 20Z. ALL OF THE SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IFR STRATUS IS INDICATED BY MOS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUGHLY FROM 08 TO 14Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE PSBL LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. IFR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WEATHER IMPROVES FRIDAY AND
BEYOND FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED...AS SSW FLO (AOB 15-20 KTS WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTINUES ARND HI PRES OFF THE CST. PRES GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE WED THRU THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NGT THRU FRI MORNG. ANY SCA CONDITIONS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WNA CONTINUES TO
FCST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OR N FRI
AFTN BEHIND THE FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS/DAP
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211451
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(PWATS ~1.5 IN) AND MODERATE
CAPE VALUES(~1100 J/KG)...SO GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
ON TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...DECREASING
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 80S
INLAND. HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION REGIONS ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND KEPT 30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED...AS SSW FLO (AOB 15-20 KTS WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTINUES ARND HI PRES OFF THE CST. PRES GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE WED THRU THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NGT THRU FRI MORNG. ANY SCA CONDITIONS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WNA CONTINUES TO
FCST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OR N FRI
AFTN BEHIND THE FRNT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE OBSERVATION AT ORF IS NOT AVAILABLE. A TECH IS AT THE SITE THIS
MORNING AND HOPEFULLY SERVICE WILL BE RESTORED LATER TODAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS/DAP
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
EQUIPMENT...


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211338
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
938 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(PWATS ~1.5 IN) AND MODERATE
CAPE VALUES(~1100 J/KG)...SO GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
ON TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...DECREASING
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 80S
INLAND. HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION REGIONS ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND KEPT 30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED...AS SSW FLO (AOB 15-20 KTS WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTINUES ARND HI PRES OFF THE CST. PRES GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE WED THRU THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NGT THRU FRI MORNG. ANY SCA CONDITIONS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WNA CONTINUES TO
FCST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OR N FRI
AFTN BEHIND THE FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS/DAP
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
502 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COUPLED WITH 20 KT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NC. SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE WAKEFIELD CWA...HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HAMPER ANY
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT AHEAD AS
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S REGION-WIDE.

THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(PWATS ~1.7
IN) AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES(~1100 J/KG)...SO GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE ON TUESDAY WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE
MID 80S INLAND. HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
IF CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION REGIONS ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND KEPT 30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED TODAY THRU WED...AS SSW FLO (AOB 15-20 KTS WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTINUES ARND HI PRES OFF THE CST. PRES GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE WED THRU THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRNT
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NGT THRU FRI MORNG. ANY SCA CONDITIONS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE FRNT. WNA CONTINUES TO
FCST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE FOR NOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OR N FRI
AFTN BEHIND THE FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COUPLED WITH 20 KT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN NC. SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE WAKEFIELD CWA...HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HAMPER ANY
CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT AHEAD AS
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S REGION-WIDE.

THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(PWATS ~1.7
IN) AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES(~1100 J/KG)...SO GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURE ON TUESDAY WILL MAX OUT NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE
MID 80S INLAND. HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER
IF CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION REGIONS ARE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS STILL
UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND KEPT 30 PERCENT
POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FORECAST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE/ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/DAP
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210547
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WANE THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL SFC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (IT IS BEING PULLED IN ON SW FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC) TO KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
HAMPER ANY CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S
REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...
DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND
KEPT 30 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SSW FLO WILL CONTINUE TODAY THRU THU...WITH ISLTD OR SCTD SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OR OCCUR THRU ARND 15Z...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF PCPN) THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENG. MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP TNGT INTO WED
MORNG...AND AGAIN WED NGT INTO THU MORNG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE AREA THU EVENG INTO EARLY FRI AFTN. HI PRES RETURNS FOR
LATE FRI THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FORECAST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE/ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202320
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
720 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TO AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WANE THIS EVENING. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL SFC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE (IT IS BEING PULLED IN ON SW FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC) TO KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. PRECIP WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL
HAMPER ANY CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S
REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...
DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND
KEPT 30 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE AND OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE. LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
BNDRY FRI SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN.
LOWS THU NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH
TMPS A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCT SHWRS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
EVENG. EXPECT VFR VSBYS WITH CIGS BORDERING ON VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SHWRS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENG...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVRNGT THRU ERLY TUE. IFR LESS LIKELY AT
ORF/ECG WHERE ONLY MVRF CONDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALONG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FORECAST SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE/ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/WRS
MARINE...MPR


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA PROVIDING DRY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS A STRONGER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

IN ASSOCIATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
ONE AND A HALF INCHES...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING
...SLOWLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. POPS DECREASE FROM THE WEST TOWARD
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...
DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND
KEPT 30 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LMODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU NITE AND
OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE BNDRY FRI
SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN. LOWS THU
NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTRN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH TMPS
A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCTD SHWRS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
EVENG. EXPECT VFR VSBYS WITH CIGS BORDERING ON VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SHWRS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENG...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVRNGT THRU ERLY TUE. IFR LESS LIKELY AT
ORF/ECG WHERE ONLY MVRF CONDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FCTS SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE / ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/WRS
MARINE...MPR


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA AND
WEST VIRGINIA AS DEPICTED WELL BY ENHANCED IR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. DESPITE A
NORTHEASTWARD CELL MOVEMENT...SHOWERS HAVE TENDED TO DISSIPATE OVER
SRN VIRGINIA. AROUND 14Z...CONVECTION BEGAN TO INCREASE OVER FROM
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY VA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE CWA EXCEPT LOW TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PSBL. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
AS OMEGA IS WEAK BELOW 10K FT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE PSBL ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND THE NORTHERN NECK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. S/SSW WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH...AND COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE EACH EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCTD SHWRS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
EVENG. EXPECT VFR VSBYS WITH CIGS BORDERING ON VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SHWRS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENG...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVRNGT THRU ERLY TUE. IFR LESS LIKELY AT
ORF/ECG WHERE ONLY MVRF CONDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SSE WINDS CONTINUE ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC
AND ALOFT PREVAILS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE ON THE BAY...AND AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. THUS...NO SCAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
4 AM. SEAS NEAR 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
SUBSIDING TREND IS EXPECTED. SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.

NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THU/FRI
TIME FRAME. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE 2 FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE THURSDAY...THE SECOND STRONGER ONE LATE FRIDAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. WINDS BEHIND SECOND
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO REACH/EXCEED SCA CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...DAP/LSA
SHORT TERM...DAP/LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAS/WRS
MARINE...WRS


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201431
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1031 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA AND
WEST VIRGINIA AS DEPICTED WELL BY ENHANCED IR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. DESPITE A
NORTHEASTWARD CELL MOVEMENT...SHOWERS HAVE TENDED TO DISSIPATE OVER
SRN VIRGINIA. AROUND 14Z...CONVECTION BEGAN TO INCREASE OVER FROM
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY VA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE CWA EXCEPT LOW TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PSBL. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
AS OMEGA IS WEAK BELOW 10K FT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL
BE PSBL ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND THE NORTHERN NECK. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. S/SSW WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH...AND COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE EACH EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FROM A KRWI TO KXSA
LINE WESTWARD. THINK THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14Z-15Z...AIDED BY
AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL NC. ALSO...IFR/LIFR HAS
PERSISTED SINCE 06Z AT KSBY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
13Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT TODAY TO BE VFR. HOWEVER...INCREASED
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD ALLOW MORE TSTMS TO DVLP
EAST OF I-95...AFFECTING KPHF/KORF/KECG DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPO GROUP ADDED TO TAF. HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CAUSE
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. THINK TSTM POTENTIAL LESS AT KSBY AND...DUE
TO MORNING SHWR ACTIVITY...AT KRIC. EXPECT TONIGHT TO HAVE MAINLY
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR IFR TO DVLP
AFTER 07Z.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SSE WINDS CONTINUE ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC
AND ALOFT PREVAILS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE ON THE BAY...AND AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. THUS...NO SCAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
4 AM. SEAS NEAR 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
SUBSIDING TREND IS EXPECTED. SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.

NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THU/FRI
TIME FRAME. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE 2 FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE THURSDAY...THE SECOND STRONGER ONE LATE FRIDAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. WINDS BEHIND SECOND
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO REACH/EXCEED SCA CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/LSA
NEAR TERM...DAP/LSA
SHORT TERM...DAP/LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
652 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTER MONDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS NOW TO THE N OF THE CWA CAUSING
SFC WINDS TO BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY VISIBLE ON RADAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT WITH PWATS ~1.5IN...EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL TO
OCCUR DURING ANY SHOWERS...GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE FOG SHOULD MAINLY DEVELOP FROM LOWERING
STRATUS.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTN...LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S WITH TEMPS RISING TO ~80 ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS. BUT...DUE TO RATHER WEAK
WIND SHEAR...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS WILL AGAIN BE HIGH...RANGING FROM
1.60-1.75IN. WITH THAT IN MIND...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
HEAVY RAINFALL...CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. S/SSW WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH...AND COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE EACH EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FROM A KRWI TO KXSA
LINE WESTWARD. THINK THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14Z-15Z...AIDED BY
AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL NC. ALSO...IFR/LIFR HAS
PERSISTED SINCE 06Z AT KSBY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
13Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT TODAY TO BE VFR. HOWEVER...INCREASED
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD ALLOW MORE TSTMS TO DVLP
EAST OF I-95...AFFECTING KPHF/KORF/KECG DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPO GROUP ADDED TO TAF. HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CAUSE
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. THINK TSTM POTENTIAL LESS AT KSBY AND...DUE
TO MORNING SHWR ACTIVITY...AT KRIC. EXPECT TONIGHT TO HAVE MAINLY
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR IFR TO DVLP
AFTER 07Z.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SSE WINDS CONTINUE ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC
AND ALOFT PREVAILS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE ON THE BAY...AND AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. THUS...NO SCAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
4 AM. SEAS NEAR 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
SUBSIDING TREND IS EXPECTED. SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.

NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THU/FRI
TIME FRAME. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE 2 FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE THURSDAY...THE SECOND STRONGER ONE LATE FRIDAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. WINDS BEHIND SECOND
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO REACH/EXCEED SCA CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...DAP
SHORT TERM...DAP/LSA
LONG TERM...JEF
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
HYDROLOGY...


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201026
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
626 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTER MONDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS NOW TO THE N OF THE CWA CAUSING
SFC WINDS TO BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY VISIBLE ON RADAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT WITH PWATS ~1.5IN...EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL TO
OCCUR DURING ANY SHOWERS...GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE FOG SHOULD MAINLY DEVELOP FROM LOWERING
STRATUS.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTN...LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S WITH TEMPS RISING TO ~80 ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS. BUT...DUE TO RATHER WEAK
WIND SHEAR...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NAM BUFR
SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS WILL AGAIN BE HIGH...RANGING FROM
1.60-1.75IN. WITH THAT IN MIND...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
HEAVY RAINFALL...CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. S/SSW WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH...AND COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE EACH EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLY LESS STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE AREA AND TERMINALS
TONIGHT VS. LAST NIGHT. MAIN AREA OF POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS
APPEARS TO BE ON THE DELMARVA. HAVE KSBY IN IFR THE NEXT 6
HOURS...BASED UPON OBSERVATION TRENDS AT KOXB/KWAL AND KGED.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME BR...AND PERHAPS SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...BUT GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
INCREASED LO LVL MIXING VICE LAST NIGHT ALSO EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUNRISE. COULD BE A FEW SHWRS AS
WELL...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF MOST TERMINALS DUE TO LACK OF
DEFINITIVE TIMING.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT TODAY TO BE VFR. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY.
GIVEN INCREASED AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY...HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE PROB30 FOR TSTMS AT MOST TERMINALS IN THE 19Z TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CAUSE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SSE WINDS CONTINUE ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC
AND ALOFT PREVAILS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE ON THE BAY...AND AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. THUS...NO SCAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
4 AM. SEAS NEAR 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
SUBSIDING TREND IS EXPECTED. SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.

NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THU/FRI
TIME FRAME. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE 2 FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE THURSDAY...THE SECOND STRONGER ONE LATE FRIDAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. WINDS BEHIND SECOND
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO REACH/EXCEED SCA CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...DAP
SHORT TERM...DAP/LSA
LONG TERM...JEF
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
HYDROLOGY...


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED WELL OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTER MONDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS NOW TO THE N OF THE CWA CAUSING
SFC WINDS TO BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY VISIBLE ON RADAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BUT WITH PWATS ~1.5IN...EXPECT MODERATE RAINFALL TO
OCCUR DURING ANY SHOWERS...GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND ON THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
THE FOG SHOULD MAINLY DEVELOP FROM LOWERING STRATUS.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN...LASTING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH TEMPS
RISING TO ~80 ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FUEL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS. BUT...DUE TO RATHER WEAK WIND
SHEAR...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NAM BUFR SOUNDING
INDICATING PWATS WILL AGAIN BE HIGH...RANGING FROM 1.60-1.75IN. WITH
THAT IN MIND...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE HEAVY
RAINFALL...CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80 ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. S/SSW WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH...AND COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE EACH EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR
80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONSIDERABLY LESS STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE AREA AND TERMINALS
TONIGHT VS. LAST NIGHT. MAIN AREA OF POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS
APPEARS TO BE ON THE DELMARVA. HAVE KSBY IN IFR THE NEXT 6
HOURS...BASED UPON OBSERVATION TRENDS AT KOXB/KWAL AND KGED.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME BR...AND PERHAPS SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...BUT GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
INCREASED LO LVL MIXING VICE LAST NIGHT ALSO EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUNRISE. COULD BE A FEW SHWRS AS
WELL...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF MOST TERMINALS DUE TO LACK OF
DEFINITIVE TIMING.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT TODAY TO BE VFR. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY.
GIVEN INCREASED AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY...HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE PROB30 FOR TSTMS AT MOST TERMINALS IN THE 19Z TO 23Z TIME
FRAME. HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CAUSE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SSE WINDS CONTINUE ALL AREAS THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC
AND ALOFT PREVAILS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE ON THE BAY...AND AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. THUS...NO SCAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT SCA
FOR SEAS ON THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
4 AM. SEAS NEAR 20 NM WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 5
FEET...ESPECIALLY ON THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
SUBSIDING TREND IS EXPECTED. SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE NORTHERN AREAS ON
TUESDAY.

NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THU/FRI
TIME FRAME. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE 2 FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE THURSDAY...THE SECOND STRONGER ONE LATE FRIDAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. WINDS BEHIND SECOND
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO REACH/EXCEED SCA CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
FROPA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...DAP
SHORT TERM...DAP/LSA
LONG TERM...JEF
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...WRS
HYDROLOGY...


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