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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
659 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
659 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA.
BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...MAM










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 25/1200Z. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS OF 7-10 KFT THROUGH
THE AREA ROUGHLY BTWN 25/2100Z NW THROUGH 26/0600Z SE. A WEAK BUT
DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NW AND BECOMING BREEZY
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT INLAND WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
IMPACT THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...MAM










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250835 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...MAM












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY. TO THE NORTH, A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING SW
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

A PLEASANT FALL AFTN ON THE WAY TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRES NUDGES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ALONG
WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH THE FROPA. A BIT MILDER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM
THE OHIO/TN VLY...SHUNTING SFC FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE
EACH DAY. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75 BOTH
DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S EXCEPT U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO
L50S SERN BEACH AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY AFTER LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE...WELL MIXED ATM AND COMPRESSED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH RH
FALLING <30% WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT APPROACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF DIURNAL SURGE IN NW-N WINDS (10-15KT) IS OCCURRING AS OF 4AM
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7-8AM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE FALLS APART AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS
TODAY. NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15KT ALL WATERS. SEAS/WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT
RESPECTIVELY. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. WEST WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (10-15KT RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT COASTAL
WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC BORDER). SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO
5FT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
MWWAKQ FOR EXACT TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY WILL
YIELD RH VALUES ~30%. THIS IN TANDEM WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN
15-25 MPH AND DRY FUELS AFTER DRY FROPA. IF PRESENT FORECAST
THINKING VERIFIES, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BELOW 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OVR THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE MODELS TRACK A QUICK
MOVING S/W SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OFF
THE SERN COAST SAT MORNING. HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT ACROSS THE FA THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S TO NR 50 SERN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LEE TROF
DVLPNG OUT AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. TSCTNS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. UPSHOT WILL BE ANTHR DRY DAY
WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

DRY COLD FRNTL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. SKIES AVG PT CLDY. LOWS M40S-L50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTMS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPCT AMPL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST
HIGHS BTWN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT
U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCAS TO EXPIRE AT 20Z/24 FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN OCN ZONE
(DUE TO SEAS HOVERING ARND 5 FT). NW WNDS CONT INTO SAT W/ SPEEDS
LWRG (GRADUALLY). NEXT PSBL PD OF SCA LT SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT W/
CDFNTL PASSAGE AND LO LVL CAA (IN ITS WAKE) AS W WNDS BECOME NW.
SPEEDS LWRG AGAIN ON MON...THEN BECOME SW MON NGT CONTG THROUGH WED
(WHILE RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONCERN SUNDAY AFTRN WILL BE FOR BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED
INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES ARND 30% ALONG
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH. THUS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BLO 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MAS/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
850 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OVR THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE MODELS TRACK A QUICK MOVING
S/W SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OFF THE SERN
COAST SAT MORNING. HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE FA THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT U30S WRN MOST
AREAS TO NR 50 SERN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LEE TROF
DVLPNG OUT AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. TSCTNS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. UPSHOT WILL BE ANTHR DRY DAY
WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

DRY COLD FRNTL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. SKIES AVG PT CLDY. LOWS M40S-L50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTMS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPCT AMPL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST
HIGHS BTWN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT
U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
PRODUCING SOME CIRRUS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
NOT IMPACT AVIATION. WITH AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
00Z SUN...EXPECT THE VFR CONDITION TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BUT WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SWITCH TO SW SAT AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCAS TO EXPIRE AT 20Z/24 FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN OCN ZONE
(DUE TO SEAS HOVERING ARND 5 FT). NW WNDS CONT INTO SAT W/ SPEEDS
LWRG (GRADUALLY). NEXT PSBL PD OF SCA LT SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT W/
CDFNTL PASSAGE AND LO LVL CAA (IN ITS WAKE) AS W WNDS BECOME NW.
SPEEDS LWRG AGAIN ON MON...THEN BECOME SW MON NGT CONTG THROUGH WED
(WHILE RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONCERN SUNDAY AFTRN WILL BE FOR BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED
INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES ARND 30% ALONG
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH. THUS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BLO 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
304 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN DRIFTS OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OVR THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE MODELS TRACK A QUICK MOVING
S/W SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING OFF THE SERN
COAST SAT MORNING. HIGH LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE FA THRU THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT U30S WRN MOST
AREAS TO NR 50 SERN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A LEE TROF
DVLPNG OUT AHEAD OF THE APPRCHG CDFRNT. TSCTNS SHOW A DRY COLUMN
ALONG WITH A W-NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW. UPSHOT WILL BE ANTHR DRY DAY
WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS AT BEST. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

DRY COLD FRNTL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT. SKIES AVG PT CLDY. LOWS M40S-L50S.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTMS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPCT AMPL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP TO BOOST
HIGHS BTWN 70-75 BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S XCPT
U30S WRN MOST AREAS TO L50S SERN BEACH AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MILD/WARM TO START IN EXTENDED THEN TRENDING COOLER BY THE END. HI
PRES SFC-ALOFT RMNS INVOF SE AND MDATLC CSTS MON NGT THROUGH TUE
BEFORE SHIFTING E ALLOWING BROAD TROUGH (ALOFT) TO SETTLE FM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN STATES. CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW
WED...THEN PUSH ACRS THE FA WED NGT INTO THU AFTN. W/ THE FNT...XPCG
PDS OF CLDNS AND (RIGHT NOW) A LO CHC POP (FOR SHRAS). AHEAD OF THE
FNT...MILD/WARM SWLY FLO AND SKC-PCLDY...THEN VRB CLDS FM LT WED
INTO FRI AS AIR TURNS COOLER (ON RETURN OF NNW WNDS).

HI TEMPS TUE RANGING THROUGH THE 70S (MAYBE L80S OVR INTERIOR
SECTIONS)...THEN L/M70S WED...AND MNLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI. LO TEMPS
IN THE 50S IN THE L/M50S MON NGT...M/U50S TUE NGT...L/M50S WED
NGT...THEN M40S TO L50S THU NGT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA CREATING LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SAT...BRINGING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL ALLOW SCAS TO EXPIRE AT 20Z/24 FOR ALL BUT FAR NRN OCN ZONE
(DUE TO SEAS HOVERING ARND 5 FT). NW WNDS CONT INTO SAT W/ SPEEDS
LWRG (GRADUALLY). NEXT PSBL PD OF SCA LT SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT W/
CDFNTL PASSAGE AND LO LVL CAA (IN ITS WAKE) AS W WNDS BECOME NW.
SPEEDS LWRG AGAIN ON MON...THEN BECOME SW MON NGT CONTG THROUGH WED
(WHILE RMNG BLO SCA THRESHOLDS).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONCERN SUNDAY AFTRN WILL BE FOR BREEZY/WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. MIXED LAYER DP TMPS PROGGED
INTO THE L-M30S BY 18Z SUNDAY RESULTING IN RH VALUES ARND 30% ALONG
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BTWN 15-25 MPH. THUS...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES DROP BLO 10%.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...MPR








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA CREATING LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SAT...BRINGING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ~15-20KT. SEAS 3-5FT
(HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT STACKED,
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME
DOWN BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241356
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
956 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LTL MORE THAN
SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES
SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARD ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY, EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN. PRES
GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE
CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
706 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LTL MORE THAN
SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES
SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARD ATLANTIC
CANADA TODAY, EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN. PRES
GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER THE
CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240811
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE TODAY...EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN.
PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER
THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240811
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE TODAY...EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN.
PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER
THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3-5FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT
STACKED, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING
AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE TODAY...EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN.
PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER
THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING ~15-20KT,
WITH SOME HIGHER WINDS ~25KT PERSISTING AT ELEVATED TERMINALS. SEAS
5-7FT (HIGHEST NORTH WITH WAVES 3-5FT. VERT STACKED, DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME DOWN OVER THE
RIVERS LATER THIS MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS, WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED
THIS MORNING, EXPECT SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.
THUS, HAVE HELD ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
151 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. DID SLOW DOWN THE DROP
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME AREAS
OF CLOUDS AND WIND HOLDING TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE TODAY...EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN.
PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER
THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...BMD










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240159
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEC TO CURRENT FORECAST. DID SLOW DOWN THE DROP
IN TEMPS THIS EVENG/ERLY OVRNGT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME AREAS
OF CLOUDS AND WIND HOLDING TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INVOF KSBY.
DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW OFF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN
OFF OVER THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240159
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEC TO CURRENT FORECAST. DID SLOW DOWN THE DROP
IN TEMPS THIS EVENG/ERLY OVRNGT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME AREAS
OF CLOUDS AND WIND HOLDING TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INVOF KSBY.
DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW OFF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN
OFF OVER THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS
TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INVOF KSBY.
DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW OFF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN
OFF OVER THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS
TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST INVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231936
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS
TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF NEW ENGLAND BY
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT AT MOST SITES, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM FENWICK ISLAND SOUTH TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SUBSEQUENT SCAS ACROSS ALL OTHER
WATERS WILL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES
IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS,
ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231936
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. LOWS
TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF NEW ENGLAND BY
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT AT MOST SITES, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM FENWICK ISLAND SOUTH TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SUBSEQUENT SCAS ACROSS ALL OTHER
WATERS WILL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES
IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS,
ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF NEW ENGLAND BY
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT AT MOST SITES, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM FENWICK ISLAND SOUTH TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SUBSEQUENT SCAS ACROSS ALL OTHER
WATERS WILL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES
IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS,
ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
3-4K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL EAST OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE WILL CONT UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN
GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO
THU AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY.

VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF NEW ENGLAND BY
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT AT MOST SITES, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM FENWICK ISLAND SOUTH TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCA THIS AFTN AS
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN. SUBSEQUENT SCAS ACROSS ALL OTHER
WATERS WILL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. SEAS ARE
AROUND 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES
IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS,
ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY AFTN.
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>638-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
627 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST IVOF KSBY WITH CIGS ~3KFT.
DEEPENING LOW PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COASTLINE...AND WILL
CONT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...EVENTUALLY LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR
CONDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING.
PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY
N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFTS NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED
BY SCA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT SCAS WL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT
SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE WEST OF THE WATERS, ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT BY FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST.
THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND CST TODAY THRU FRI. MEANWHILE...HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY
BLD IN FM THE OH VALLEY. THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE CST WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. WILL MAINTAIN A 20%
POP OVR THE ERN SHR INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...DRY WX ELSEWHERE. STILL
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR THE
SKY TO AVERAGE OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY ENE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WSW. HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO ARND 60 ON THE LWR MD ERN
SHR...TO THE UPR 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND S CNTRL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR WSW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE TNGT...WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S INTO THE LWR 50S. LO PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NE AND AWAY FM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS
ON FRI RANGING FM THE MID 60S NE TO ARND 70 SW. HI PRES REMAINS
IN CONTROL ON SAT WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COAST.LINE...AND WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND
20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFTS NE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT TO A POSITION OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NW WINDS 20-30KT, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT. GALES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE REPLACED
BY SCA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACKEN. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT SCAS WL REMAIN FLYING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTN/EVENING. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 8-10 FT OUT NEAR 20NM...4-6FT
SEAS NEARSHORE (3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY). AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
LIFT NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE WEST OF THE WATERS, ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5
FT BY FRIDAY AFTN. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS LATE SAT NGT/ERY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW WELL OF THE NY/NJ COAST.LINE...AND WILL CONT UP THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...EVENTUALLY
LOCATING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN COMPRESSED TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND
20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW OFF THE E NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONT UP
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND OFF THE
COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED
TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH
TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE
ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH
TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW
TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE
ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS IS NOW WELL OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BUT CONTS
TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS TO THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL CONT UP THE EAST COAST AND BE OFF NEW ENGLAND BY THU AFTN
AND OFF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRI MORNING. GUSTY NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KT WILL
CONT OVER THE EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
534 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY INLET WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
FALLING JUST BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING AND EXCEEDING
MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE
BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD.
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1007 MB SFC LOW JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SHORE. UPR CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THRU 18Z. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OFFSHORE JUST PAST 20 NM. LATEST SRM
PRODUCTS FROM THE LOCAL 88D`S SHOW SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OFFSHORE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HEAR
ABOUT A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN VA INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SW COUNTIES WHERE SOME SUN WILL CONTINUE TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEG IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES BY 21Z...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST
FARTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED WELL BY LATEST HI RES
MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
CWA THROUGH 21Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE SW LATER
IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY
MID-LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC. OTHER FEATURE TO
NOTE WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








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