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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241507
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1107 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SERIES OF WEAK AND GENERALLY DRY FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES IN AND A STRONG SFC LOW WELL EAST OF THE NRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND VA/NE NC
AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY/ATLANTIC
COASTS. IN ADDITION...DRY WEATHER AND FINE FUELS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW
MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S MOST AREAS BY
THIS AFTN. INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL IS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN FOR
TODAY...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL TURN SE-S AND BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID- UPPER 40S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT LOW 40S POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR
MD EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STRENGTH IS WANING AS BOTH FEATURES CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND LIMITING IT
TO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTN. THE
PRESENCE OF A THETA-E GRADIENT (AHEAD OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS)
MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...DESPITE AN INITIAL LACK OF PREFERRED/FAVORABLE SFC
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMPROVES DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP LIFT/OMEGA
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS (ROUGHLY BELOW 850-900 MB) WHICH IMPLIES THAT
THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
FROM 0-6 KM IS AVERAGING ABOUT 30 KT WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LOW. IN ADDITION ...
SHORT-LIVED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL ADVECT MODEST PWATS INTO THE
REGION (0.75 TO 1.40 INCHES). THEREFORE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE UNORGANIZED WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
UNDER THE STRONGEST STORM CORES. KEEPING ONE CAVEAT IN MIND...IF
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (AS OF THU MORNING)...THEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM
RIDGING WILL LIKELY STALL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
THUS CAUSING AN ADDITIONAL DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
AND DECREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DUE TO UNFAVORABLE TIMING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR 12Z MODEL TRENDS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO DETERMINE BEST
TIMING/IMPACTS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST AREAS WHILE THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID
70S.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES) APPROACHES FROM THE NW. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST FRI NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND MID-UPPER 50S EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 (LOWER 50S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). THE DRY FRONT WILL
SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY
80 DEGREES) FOR NE NC AND INTERIOR VA WEST OF CHES BAY AND INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE AND MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS OF 45-50 DEGREES NW OF
RICHMOND AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND IN THE LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM
YSTRDYS IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY/SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS
ANY MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT/SUN NIGHTS IN
THE M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON
WHERE THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS
AND PCPN TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORM RAIN). UPR LVL LOW
PROGGED TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON
NIGHT ONLY TO THE OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY
ADD TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN
THRU THE PRD. FRNTL BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH
BY WED AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE
UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON
THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST (L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING SCAS ON THE OCEAN UNTIL MID/LT AFTN. SFC HI PRES IS SLO
TO BUILD OVR THE WTRS THIS AFTN/EVE...RESULTING IN GUSTY NNW WNDS
THIS MRNG WANING THIS AFTN. VRB WNDS TNGT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOME
SSE ON FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING LO PRES FM THE W. SPEEDS TO INCRS
FRI INTO FRI NGT... THOUGH WILL KEEP BLO SCA...THEN BECOME WNW FRI
NGT AND CONT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NW WINDS
DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURSDAY AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW
FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES (AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD
FIRE OFFICIALS) AND ADDED VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES TO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241430
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SERIES OF WEAK AND GENERALLY DRY FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES IN AND A STRONG SFC LOW WELL EAST OF THE NRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND VA/NE NC
AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY/ATLANTIC
COASTS. IN ADDITION...DRY WEATHER AND FINE FUELS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW
MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S MOST AREAS BY
THIS AFTN. INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL IS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN FOR
TODAY...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL TURN SE-S AND BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID- UPPER 40S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT LOW 40S POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR
MD EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STRENGTH IS WANING AS BOTH FEATURES CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND LIMITING IT
TO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTN. THE
PRESENCE OF A THETA-E GRADIENT (AHEAD OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS)
MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...DESPITE AN INITIAL LACK OF PREFERRED/FAVORABLE SFC
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMPROVES DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP LIFT/OMEGA
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS (ROUGHLY BELOW 850-900 MB) WHICH IMPLIES THAT
THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
FROM 0-6 KM IS AVERAGING ABOUT 30 KT WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LOW. IN ADDITION ...
SHORT-LIVED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL ADVECT MODEST PWATS INTO THE
REGION (0.75 TO 1.40 INCHES). THEREFORE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE UNORGANIZED WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
UNDER THE STRONGEST STORM CORES. KEEPING ONE CAVEAT IN MIND...IF
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (AS OF THU MORNING)...THEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM
RIDGING WILL LIKELY STALL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
THUS CAUSING AN ADDITIONAL DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
AND DECREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DUE TO UNFAVORABLE TIMING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR 12Z MODEL TRENDS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO DETERMINE BEST
TIMING/IMPACTS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST AREAS WHILE THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID
70S.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES) APPROACHES FROM THE NW. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST FRI NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND MID-UPPER 50S EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 (LOWER 50S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). THE DRY FRONT WILL
SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY
80 DEGREES) FOR NE NC AND INTERIOR VA WEST OF CHES BAY AND INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE AND MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS OF 45-50 DEGREES NW OF
RICHMOND AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND IN THE LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM
YSTRDYS IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY/SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS
ANY MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT/SUN NIGHTS IN
THE M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON
WHERE THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS
AND PCPN TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORM RAIN). UPR LVL LOW
PROGGED TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON
NIGHT ONLY TO THE OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY
ADD TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN
THRU THE PRD. FRNTL BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH
BY WED AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE
UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON
THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST (L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING SCAS ON THE BAY INTO MID/LT MRNG HRS...ON THE OCN UNTIL
MID/LT AFTN. SFC HI PRES IS SLO TO BUILD OVR THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVE...RESULTING IN GUSTY NNW WNDS THIS MRNG WANING THIS AFTN.
VRB WNDS TNGT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOME SSE ON FRI AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LO PRES FM THE W. SPEEDS TO INCRS FRI INTO FRI NGT...
THOUGH WILL KEEP BLO SCA...THEN BECOME WNW FRI NGT AND CONT
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NW WINDS
DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURSDAY AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW
FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES (AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD
FIRE OFFICIALS) AND ADDED VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES TO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
     100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/AJZ
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...BMD






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241053 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
521 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SERIES OF WEAK AND GENERALLY DRY FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
BECOME LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND A STRONG SFC LOW WELL EAST OF
THE NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND VA/NE NC
AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY/ATLANTIC
COASTS. IN ADDITION...DRY WEATHER AND FINE FUELS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW
MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S MOST AREAS BY
THIS AFTN. INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL IS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN FOR
TODAY...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL TURN SE-S AND BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID- UPPER 40S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT LOW 40S POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR
MD EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STRENGTH IS WANING AS BOTH FEATURES CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND LIMITING IT
TO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTN. THE
PRESENCE OF A THETA-E GRADIENT (AHEAD OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS)
MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...DESPITE AN INITIAL LACK OF PREFERRED/FAVORABLE SFC
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMPROVES DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP LIFT/OMEGA
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS (ROUGHLY BELOW 850-900 MB) WHICH IMPLIES THAT
THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
FROM 0-6 KM IS AVERAGING ABOUT 30 KT WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LOW. IN ADDITION ...
SHORT-LIVED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL ADVECT MODEST PWATS INTO THE
REGION (0.75 TO 1.40 INCHES). THEREFORE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE UNORGANIZED WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
UNDER THE STRONGEST STORM CORES. KEEPING ONE CAVEAT IN MIND...IF
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (AS OF THU MORNING)...THEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM
RIDGING WILL LIKELY STALL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
THUS CAUSING AN ADDITIONAL DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
AND DECREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DUE TO UNFAVORABLE TIMING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR 12Z MODEL TRENDS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO DETERMINE BEST
TIMING/IMPACTS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST AREAS WHILE THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID
70S.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES) APPROACHES FROM THE NW. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST FRI NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND MID-UPPER 50S EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 (LOWER 50S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). THE DRY FRONT WILL
SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY
80 DEGREES) FOR NE NC AND INTERIOR VA WEST OF CHES BAY AND INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE AND MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS OF 45-50 DEGREES NW OF
RICHMOND AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND IN THE LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM
YSTRDYS IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY/SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS
ANY MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT/SUN NIGHTS IN
THE M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON
WHERE THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS
AND PCPN TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORM RAIN). UPR LVL LOW
PROGGED TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON
NIGHT ONLY TO THE OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY
ADD TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN
THRU THE PRD. FRNTL BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH
BY WED AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE
UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON
THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST (L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING SCAS ON THE BAY INTO MID/LT MRNG HRS...ON THE OCN UNTIL
MID/LT AFTN. SFC HI PRES IS SLO TO BUILD OVR THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVE...RESULTING IN GUSTY NNW WNDS THIS MRNG WANING THIS AFTN.
VRB WNDS TNGT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOME SSE ON FRI AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LO PRES FM THE W. SPEEDS TO INCRS FRI INTO FRI NGT...
THOUGH WILL KEEP BLO SCA...THEN BECOME WNW FRI NGT AND CONT
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NW WINDS
DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURSDAY AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW
FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES (AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD
FIRE OFFICIALS) AND ADDED VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES TO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...BMD














000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
521 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SERIES OF WEAK AND GENERALLY DRY FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
BECOME LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND A STRONG SFC LOW WELL EAST OF
THE NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND VA/NE NC
AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY/ATLANTIC
COASTS. IN ADDITION...DRY WEATHER AND FINE FUELS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW
MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S MOST AREAS BY
THIS AFTN. INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL IS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN FOR
TODAY...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL TURN SE-S AND BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID- UPPER 40S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT LOW 40S POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR
MD EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STRENGTH IS WANING AS BOTH FEATURES CROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND LIMITING IT
TO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTN. THE
PRESENCE OF A THETA-E GRADIENT (AHEAD OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS)
MEANS THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...DESPITE AN INITIAL LACK OF PREFERRED/FAVORABLE SFC
INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMPROVES DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP LIFT/OMEGA
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS (ROUGHLY BELOW 850-900 MB) WHICH IMPLIES THAT
THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
FROM 0-6 KM IS AVERAGING ABOUT 30 KT WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LOW. IN ADDITION ...
SHORT-LIVED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL ADVECT MODEST PWATS INTO THE
REGION (0.75 TO 1.40 INCHES). THEREFORE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE UNORGANIZED WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
UNDER THE STRONGEST STORM CORES. KEEPING ONE CAVEAT IN MIND...IF
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (AS OF THU MORNING)...THEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM
RIDGING WILL LIKELY STALL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
THUS CAUSING AN ADDITIONAL DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
AND DECREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DUE TO UNFAVORABLE TIMING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR 12Z MODEL TRENDS THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO DETERMINE BEST
TIMING/IMPACTS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST AREAS WHILE THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID
70S.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES) APPROACHES FROM THE NW. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST FRI NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND MID-UPPER 50S EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 (LOWER 50S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). THE DRY FRONT WILL
SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S (POSSIBLY
80 DEGREES) FOR NE NC AND INTERIOR VA WEST OF CHES BAY AND INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE AND MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS OF 45-50 DEGREES NW OF
RICHMOND AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND IN THE LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM
YSTRDYS IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY/SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS
ANY MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT/SUN NIGHTS IN
THE M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON
WHERE THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS
AND PCPN TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORM RAIN). UPR LVL LOW
PROGGED TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON
NIGHT ONLY TO THE OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY
ADD TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN
THRU THE PRD. FRNTL BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH
BY WED AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE
UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON
THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST (L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING SCAS ON THE BAY INTO MID/LT MRNG HRS...ON THE OCN UNTIL
MID/LT AFTN. SFC HI PRES IS SLO TO BUILD OVR THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVE...RESULTING IN GUSTY NNW WNDS THIS MRNG WANING THIS AFTN.
VRB WNDS TNGT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOME SSE ON FRI AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LO PRES FM THE W. SPEEDS TO INCRS FRI INTO FRI NGT...
THOUGH WILL KEEP BLO SCA...THEN BECOME WNW FRI NGT AND CONT
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NW WINDS
DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURSDAY AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW
FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES (AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD
FIRE OFFICIALS) AND ADDED VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES TO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240824
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SERIES OF WEAK AND GENERALLY DRY FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND
BECOME LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND A STRONG SFC LOW WELL EAST OF
THE NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND VA/NE NC
AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY/ATLANTIC
COASTS. IN ADDITION...DRY WEATHER AND FINE FUELS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW
MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S MOST AREAS BY
THIS AFTN. INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL IS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN FOR
TODAY...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL TURN SE-S AND BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
MID- UPPER 40S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT LOW 40S POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR
MD EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING MORE
IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM
YSTRDYS IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORM RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO
THE OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE
MOISTURE CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD.
FRNTL BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC
LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY.
UPSHOT WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS
COOLEST (L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS
U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING SCAS ON THE BAY INTO MID/LT MRNG HRS...ON THE OCN UNTIL
MID/LT AFTN. SFC HI PRES IS SLO TO BUILD OVR THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVE...RESULTING IN GUSTY NNW WNDS THIS MRNG WANING THIS AFTN.
VRB WNDS TNGT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOME SSE ON FRI AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LO PRES FM THE W. SPEEDS TO INCRS FRI INTO FRI NGT...
THOUGH WILL KEEP BLO SCA...THEN BECOME WNW FRI NGT AND CONT
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NW WINDS
DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURSDAY AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW
FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES (AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD
FIRE OFFICIALS) AND ADDED VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES TO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...BMD













000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240625
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
225 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING NW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SCA THRESHOLD. WINDS IN
THE RIVERS AND SOUND ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS...
EXCEPT IN THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WHERE SCA ENDS AT MIDNIGHT.

WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA DROPS OFF LATE
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE BAY AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY 4 PM
THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THESE
SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA. BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENT INDICATIONS HAVE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TOO WEAK FOR SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
NW WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURS AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW FUEL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD FIRE
OFFICIALS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
906 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME WIND AT THE
TAF SITES. NW TO N WINDS MAY GUST TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT ORF AND SBY. WINDS DIMINISH OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS TO AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING
OVER THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING NW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SCA THRESHOLD. WINDS IN
THE RIVERS AND SOUND ARE FORECAST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS...
EXCEPT IN THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WHERE SCA ENDS AT MIDNIGHT.

WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCA DROPS OFF LATE
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE BAY AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY 4 PM
THURSDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THESE
SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA. BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENT INDICATIONS HAVE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TOO WEAK FOR SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
NW WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURS AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW FUEL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD FIRE
OFFICIALS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232321
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
721 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF SHORE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WNW-NW
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
THU MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY THU EVENING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...CAUSING NW
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MIXING STILL PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND TO SLOWLY DMNSH NXT
FEW HRS...SO SCA WILL CONTINUE THRU 7 PM THERE....10 PM FOR LWR JAMES
IVOF ORF. SECONDARY SURGE NOTED IN MODELS KEEPS SCA HEADLINES FOR
CHES BAY / CSTL WTRS INTO WED MORNING. 25-30 KT GUSTS PSBL AS WELL.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AFTRN THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED
NITE AND THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN DMNSH WINDS AND IMPROVING SEAS.
THUS...SCA`S WILL GRADUALLY END WED...LATEST OVR COASTAL WATERS
WHERE IT MAY TAKE SEAS A FEW HRS LONGER TO DROP BLO 5 FT. SE FLOW
BECOMES S THEN SW AS BY FRI AS RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON
BACK SODE OF RETREATING HIGH.

NEXT FRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE RGN FRI NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF
CROSSING THE WATERS SAT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAKER NW SURGE IS PSBL SAT AFTRN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
NW WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURS AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW FUEL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED FOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD FIRE
OFFICIALS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MPR
FIRE WEATHER...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231943
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...LOCATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE ERN SHORE WHERE TEMPS HAVE ONLY WARMED INTO THE LOW 60S. UPPER
TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING NW
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
ROUND OF CAA OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND AND INTO THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM 5-10 MPH INLAND TO 10
TO 15 NEAR THE COAST. COMBINE LIGHT MIXING WITH RATHER DRY GROUND
CONDITIONS AND LOW DEWPOINTS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SE COAST THURS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS
THURS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE MS VALLEY. FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION....SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG THURS AFTERNOON...BUT MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS-
LOW 20S AND DRY FUELS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN POTENTIAL FIRE WX
CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM YSTRDYS
IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORMED RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO THE
OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MOISTURE
CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD. FRNTL
BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC LOW
BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY. UPSHOT
WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS COOLEST
(L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS U60S-L70S
WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF SHORE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WNW-NW
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
THU MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY THU EVENING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...CAUSING NW
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MIXING STILL PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTRN ACROSS THE WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND TO SLOWLY DMNSH NXT
FEW HRS...SO SCA WILL CONTINUE THRU 7 PM THERE....10 PM FOR LWR JAMES
IVOF ORF. SECONDARY SURGE NOTED IN MODELS KEEPS SCA HEADLINES FOR
CHES BAY / CSTL WTRS INTO WED MORNING. 25-30 KT GUSTS PSBL AS WELL.

HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AFTRN THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED
NITE AND THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN DMNSH WINDS AND IMPROVING SEAS.
THUS...SCA`S WILL GRADUALLY END WED...LATEST OVR COASTAL WATERS
WHERE IT MAY TAKE SEAS A FEW HRS LONGER TO DROP BLO 5 FT. SE FLOW
BECOMES S THEN SW AS BY FRI AS RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON
BACK SODE OF RETREATING HIGH.

NEXT FRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE RGN FRI NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROF
CROSSING THE WATERS SAT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAKER NW SURGE IS PSBL SAT AFTRN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 8PM
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
RIC METRO AREA) AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE FOR DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER
INTERIOR VA...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH
OVER THE ERN SHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SPS FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THE SOUTH CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM AS
WELL WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-22%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL THEREFORE MENTION
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
     065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...MPR
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
221 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
WELL OFFSHORE AS MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY...BREEZY AND
COOL DAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER STRONG OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE BAY
AND OVER THE ERN SHORE WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. COMBINATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
GOOD MIXING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME
AFTERNOON CU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. NW FLOW...CAA
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...EVEN ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS TO NW WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
ERN SHORE WHERE TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF SHORE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WNW-NW
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE
THU MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BY THU EVENING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...CAUSING NW
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH STATE
FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA) AS WELL AS
THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
     065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231500
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1100 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH HAS LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
WELL OFFSHORE AS MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY...BREEZY AND
COOL DAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RATHER STRONG OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE BAY
AND OVER THE ERN SHORE WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. COMBINATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. REMNANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
GOOD MIXING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME
AFTERNOON CU...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. NW FLOW...CAA
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...EVEN ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS TO NW WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
ERN SHORE WHERE TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN
SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SRN NJ COAST
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A DECENT SURGE
OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 34015G25KT DURING THIS INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR. AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
WNW-NW WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE THU
MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU
EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...
CAUSING NW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH STATE
FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA) AS WELL AS
THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
     065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. EXPECT QUICK
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE NW, AND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TODAY.

MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NW TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUN, DRYING FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ADD UP TO A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY,.
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
MAINLY FROM RIC NORTH, WITH AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OUTLOOKED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, EXPECT MAXIMA
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SRN NJ COAST
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A DECENT SURGE
OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 34015G25KT DURING THIS INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR. AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
WNW-NW WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE THU
MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU
EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...
CAUSING NW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA, AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER
SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-
LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230752
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. EXPECT QUICK
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE NW, AND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TODAY.

MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NW TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUN, DRYING FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ADD UP TO A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY,.
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
MAINLY FROM RIC NORTH, WITH AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OUTLOOKED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, EXPECT MAXIMA
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
RIC METRO AREA, AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS
IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO
HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230140
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
940 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM...SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. BASED
ON THIS...HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE KEEPING LOW
END POPS (20-30%) ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN LOCALS THRU MIDNIGHT.

A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPR 40S INLAND
AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND
AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...A FIRE WX WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER
SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-
LFI...AND THIS IS WHERE THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE
OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING OVERNIGHT.
MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
753 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
ISOLATED -SHRA OVER WEST VA NEAR THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN. HOWEVER...DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS AS ISOLD SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY
AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER
ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO
LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED AND DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY PCPN IN THE TAFS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH RIC/SBY SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ECG AROUND 09Z/5AM EDT. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY NW OR N WINDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SOME (EXCEPT AT ORF)
A COUPLE OF HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 30 KNOTS
AT SBY AND AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY BUT THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS. GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY
FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LIKELY
UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30%
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222327
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
727 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT ONLY ISOLATED -SHRA
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ALSO
ISOLATED -SHRA OVER WEST VA NEAR THE COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING DUE TO LACK
OF WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PCPN. HOWEVER...DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS AS ISOLD SHWRS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY
AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER
ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO
LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS. GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY
FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LIKELY
UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20-30%
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-
     093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222021
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
421 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS NOT EVEN BEEN MEASURABLE THUS FAR. THINK BEST
CHC FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL COME W/ THE FRONT BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AND 10 PM (CURRENTLY SOME CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SW PA). THE WSW DRYING FLOW E OF THE MTNS MAY KEEP
THIS FROM MAKING IT INTO AKQ CWA HOWEVER. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR WRN SECTIONS INTO ERLY EVENING...AND NRN
ZONES THROUGH 02Z. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TSTMS BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT
WINDOW WITH ML CAPES EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH 01Z.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH
GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING W/ A
QUICKLY CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALIGNED ALONG THE WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT LOCATES OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
S-SW WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG NW SURGE COMMENCES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS BTWN BUILDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40
KT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHARPEN. THE RESULT WILL BE SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
DECIDED TO NOT GO LOW-END GALE BASED ON THE LIMITED STRENGTH OF
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL WATERS. HOWEVER...AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS. TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT KSBY YIELDS GUST TO ONLY
30-33 KT. WILL MONITOR FUTURE OBS/MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF GALE
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY...2-3 FT IN THE RIVERS AND 2 FT IN THE SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 5-8 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS AS SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL NUDGE OVER THE WATERS WED
NIGHT...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO
DIMINISH. SCA HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION
THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE LATE THURS. FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE THURS. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUND DROP OFF LATE WEDS...LOWER JAMES AND BAY
THURS MORNING.

A WEAKER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON WITH A
SECOND COLDER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LET CURRENT LINE
OF SHOWERS CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE ISSUING THE SPS.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
20-30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-069>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS NOT EVEN BEEN MEASURABLE THUS FAR. THINK BEST
CHC FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL COME W/ THE FRONT BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 AND 10 PM (CURRENTLY SOME CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER SW PA). THE WSW DRYING FLOW E OF THE MTNS MAY KEEP
THIS FROM MAKING IT INTO AKQ CWA HOWEVER. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
LIKELY POPS OVER FAR WRN SECTIONS INTO ERLY EVENING...AND NRN
ZONES THROUGH 02Z. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TSTMS BUT IN
GENERAL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT
WINDOW WITH ML CAPES EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH 01Z.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH
GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING W/ A
QUICKLY CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE...SO HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON
WED...WITH A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW). SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACRS THE ERN
SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
(LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE). LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT,
BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NW WED NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE (DO NOT EXPECT A FREEZE AND
PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST).

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN,
MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
FRI. HAVE BLENDED THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FOR
NOW...WITH CHC POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT...MAINLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE).
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS
CLOSER.

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS
TO SLY FLOW. HAVE CANCELLED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LULL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A STRONG NWLY SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE WATER. STRONG GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE 35-40 KT 925MB WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE WATER.
WILL LEAVE AS SCA ATTM...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST
TO SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND THEN CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL
ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR
TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS
FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT FOR THE GREATER PART OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM. THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER
THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN
BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND 2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER... COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU
(ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE
REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON ALREADY DRY FUELS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-LFI...AND THIS IS
WHERE THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER INSTEAD. WILL LET CURRENT LINE
OF SHOWERS CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE ISSUING THE SPS.
WILL LIKELY UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG EITHER LATE THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. MIN RH VALUES WED AFTN WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
20-30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX STATEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-069>078-081>086-089>091-
     094-099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...BMD/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WSW LATER THIS
AFTN. AREA LAPS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V PROFILE
THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW BECOMING MORE WSW
TYPICALLY TENDS TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE AND WOULD ALSO INHIBIT
STORM ORGANIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. LATEST 12Z NAM SEEMS TO DEPICT
CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY OVER FAR NW ZONES DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST.
HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS THROUGH 20Z (4 PM) ACRS SE VA/NE NC WHILE
MAINTAINING CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FAR NW. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MAINLY CHC POPS FROM LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING ACRS THE
CWA (WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH)...AS AREA OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER WRN NC AND ERN TN MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL...NOT A
LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT WINDOW WITH ML CAPES
EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BAY.



TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS NOW CROSSING THE PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST
CHC OF REACHING KRIC/KSBY OVER THE NEXT SVRL HRS SO HAVE ADDED A
2-3 HR TEMPO GROUP THERE. OTW...KEPT VCSH ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AFTR
20Z GIVING THE LATEST TRENDS OF THE PCPN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MTS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THUNDER IN ATTM...
BEST LOCATION FOR ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR WOULD BE ACROSS SERN TAF SITES
BEFORE 00Z. OTW...SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES CLR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AFTR 06Z. STRONG CAA SETS IN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH NW WINDS INCRG TO BTWN 15-25 KTS BY 12Z. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DELMARVA AND SERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTRMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS THANKS
TO SLY FLOW. HAVE CANCELLED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LULL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A STRONG NWLY SURGE ARRIVES OVER THE WATER. STRONG GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE 35-40 KT 925MB WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE WATER.
WILL LEAVE AS SCA ATTM...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST
TO SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND THEN CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL
ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR
TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH 10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS
FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT FOR THE GREATER PART OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM. THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER
THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN
BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND 2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER... COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU
(ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE
REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN
FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/SAM
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1214 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT AS SEEN IN OBS/PRESSURE FALLS. ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL
ALONG WEST SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WSW LATER THIS
AFTN. AREA LAPS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V PROFILE
THAT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW BECOMING MORE WSW
TYPICALLY TENDS TO DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE AND WOULD ALSO INHIBIT
STORM ORGANIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. LATEST 12Z NAM SEEMS TO DEPICT
CURRENT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL AND SHOWS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY OVER FAR NW ZONES DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST.
HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS THROUGH 20Z (4 PM) ACRS SE VA/NE NC WHILE
MAINTAINING CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FAR NW. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MAINLY CHC POPS FROM LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING ACRS THE
CWA (WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTH)...AS AREA OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER WRN NC AND ERN TN MOVES EAST. IN GENERAL...NOT A
LOT OF SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WX GIVEN A SHORT WINDOW WITH ML CAPES
EVEN GETTING TO 500-1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT AS WELL...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH
A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BAY.



TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH
10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT
FOR THE GREATER PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM.
THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD
OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A
DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND
2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...
COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN
PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EAST TODAY, PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
MORNING TO START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S
EXPECTED WEST OF THE BAY.

EXPECT SHRAS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE
TROUGH BY AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z...DROPPING SE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTN. WL LKLY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, SO
RETAINED A LOW POP OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH ABOUT 10PM. HI- RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA WITH
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES (PROGGED
TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) AND RATHER SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FURTHER,
MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT OVERALL
STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING STORMS
WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LYR, AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN TODAY`S HWO. LIKELY POPS ARE IN
PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64, WITH A CHC (40-50%) POP
FARTHER SOUTH. DID RETAIN ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH
10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT
FOR THE GREATER PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM.
THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD
OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A
DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND
2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...
COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN
PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
436 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BEING
SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING TO
START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED WEST OF THE
BAY.

EXPECT SOME SHRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH BY
AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW AND
UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER
MLCAPE VALUES (PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) AND RATHER
SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FURTHER, MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LYR, AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN
TODAY`S HWO. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-64, WITH A CHC (40-50%) POP FARTHER SOUTH. DID RETAIN ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO SOUTH
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN
CROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS THIS AFTN...WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT.
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER CHES BAY/CURRITUCK
SOUND DURING THIS TIME...BUT AM STILL ANTICIPATING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. MEANWHILE FOR TODAY...ONSHORE SWELL WITH
10-11 SECOND PERIODS WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT
FOR THE GREATER PART OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM.
THEREFORE SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 KT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PUSHES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A PERIOD
OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO A
DECENT CAA SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FAVORABLE NW WIND
DIRECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS...BUT WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY LATE TONIGHT) AND
2-3 FT ON THE RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...
COLD AIR SURGE WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS IN
PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WERE EXTENDED THROUGH WED NIGHT
FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. ADDITIONAL FLAGS WERE HOISTED
FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WED EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NW
SURGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
414 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BEING
SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING TO
START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED WEST OF THE
BAY.

EXPECT SOME SHRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH BY
AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW AND
UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER
MLCAPE VALUES (PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) AND RATHER
SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FURTHER, MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR
25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LYR, AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN
TODAY`S HWO. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-64, WITH A CHC (40-50%) POP FARTHER SOUTH. DID RETAIN ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220808
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY, WITH PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT. DEEP LAYER W TO W-SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BEING SUPPLIED
BY THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING TO
START...AND CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY
WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED WEST OF THE BAY.

EXPECT SOME SHRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH BY
AROUND/JUST AFTER 18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL SCT SHRAS AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. HI- RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NARROW
AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. COOL TD VALUES, MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES
(PROGGED TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG)AND RATHER SHALLOW MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS ISOLATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FURTHER, MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30 KT) SHOULD PREVENT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY DEVELOPING
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE DRY LOW
LEVELS. LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING CARRIED ACROSS THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING W/ A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED BY COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...SO
HAVE OPTED TOWARDS WARMER ENVELOPE OF MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD. EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE...TO LOW 50S SE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW ON WED, AS NW
FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE) WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CU OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL ZONES.
LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR
20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, BUMPED TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND, WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. CONCERN
DOES EXIST FOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS WED...SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE U30S TO AROUND
40...UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.

DRY AGAIN ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
SLIDING OFF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THU/ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S THU AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST...AND WHERE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
211 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW
30S...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 22/0540Z...LIGHT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING FROM EAST TO
SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN
CIGS AROUND 25 KFT AGL HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE MORNING. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS/CIGS UNDER STRONGER STORM
CORES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SW-W
TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KT DURING THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WED...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. AREAS WELL INLAND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE) SHOULD EXPERIENCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT WED EVENING...BECOMING CALM INLAND BY 24/0400Z WHILE
SPEEDS STAY AROUND 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX CONTINUES THU WITH NW WINDS TURNING TO THE W
DURING THE DAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST
AS A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE ARE ON FRI AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST...AND WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220219
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1019 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID/UPR 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW
30S...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON
THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE TAF SITES IN PREPARATION OF THE
00Z TAFS. WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PROBLEM WITH STRATUS. THAT LEAVES
STRATUS TO CONSIDER. MAV MOS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG
AT SBY AND ECG WITH MVFR AT PHF. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO SATURATION AT PHF AND THEN ECG AND HAVE MVFR TEMPO IFR
DURING PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO SW JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MAY END ANY IFR CONDS. HELD OFF ON FOG AT SBY AND ORF BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME CALM.

WINDS BECOME SW AND LATER W ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF PCPN IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO PSBL. A BRIEF WINDOW OF
RESTRICTIONS IS PSBL LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF FAIRLY GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES
FROM 06-21Z WED (GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT AFT 15Z). LESS WIND WED
NIGHT/THU. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
     ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST...AND WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
809 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN NEAR SEASONABLE AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AS PERSISTENT NELY
FLOW HAS PRODUCED TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH OUT TO SEA. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 30S...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON THURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE TAF SITES IN PREPARATION OF THE
00Z TAFS. WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PROBLEM WITH STRATUS. THAT LEAVES
STRATUS TO CONSIDER. MAV MOS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG
AT SBY AND ECG WITH MVFR AT PHF. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSEST TO SATURATION AT PHF AND THEN ECG AND HAVE MVFR TEMPO IFR
DURING PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO SW JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MAY END ANY IFR CONDS. HELD OFF ON FOG AT SBY AND ORF BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME CALM.

WINDS BECOME SW AND LATER W ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIMING OF PCPN IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO PSBL. A BRIEF WINDOW OF
RESTRICTIONS IS PSBL LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WX RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF FAIRLY GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES
FROM 06-21Z WED (GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT AFT 15Z). LESS WIND WED
NIGHT/THU. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST...AND WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN NEAR SEASONABLE AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AS PERSISTENT NELY
FLOW HAS PRODUCED TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH OUT TO SEA. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 30S...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON THURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN BY DAYS 6-7. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURS NIGHT...VEERING THE FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS
THURS NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW FRI
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SAT. WLY
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID
50S FRI. BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM.
WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER
THE CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

SHOULD REMAIN WARM SAT AS LOW LEVEL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS...THUS DELAYING COOLER AIRMASS UNTIL SAT NIGHT. HAVE GONE
ON WARM EDGE OF GUIDANCE IN THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY
75-80 F. LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER COULD BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ARISES SUN/MON AS THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER BUT DRY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
EVEN DEPICTS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING BACK INTO
REGION BY MON. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WENT DRY SUN...THEN BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC
POP BY MON AREA-WIDE. HIGH GENLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS/LOW CIGS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SE OF ALL TAF SITES...GENLY
SKC NOW WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND AND NE WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH 21Z
NEAR THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KPHF/KECG WHERE TEMP/DEW PT DEPRESSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 4SM VSBYS AND JUST A LOW
SCT CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW AS IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD CIGS BECOME. LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...AND THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY WX RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF FAIRLY GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES FROM 06-21Z
WED (GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT). LESS WIND WED NIGHT/THU. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. WITH 10-11 SEC PERIOD SWELL HOWEVER..SEAS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HAVE EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 7 PM FOR MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 3-4
FT WAVES. ALSO STILL NOTING SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 20Z...THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE MORNING
TUE ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS).

FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW
END SCA OVER THE BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
OFFSHORE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GENLY KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING TO RE
THAN 5-6 FT..WITH 3-4 FT WAVES ON THE BAY AND 2-3 FT ON THE
RIVERS. WILL SEE A SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY THU (ALTHOUGH TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BUILD A SFC RIDGE INTO THE REGION SO IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY IN NW FLOW THROUGH THU AFTN FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS IN PARTICULAR). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BY LATE THU AFTN INTO FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS NOT ALL THAT GOOD. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 25-30% FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...AND 20FT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR ALMOST A WEEK MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE VA
PIEDMONT WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE THE LOWEST...AND WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN NEAR SEASONABLE AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST AS PERSISTENT NELY
FLOW HAS PRODUCED TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH OUT TO SEA. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN
CANADA WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL CONUS...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL
RESULT IN LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS ENERGY DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AIDED BY A 100+ KT UPPER JET STREAK. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING SUPPLIED BY THE SYSTEM. PRECIP WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR ONE INCH...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-
MID 50S. TUES MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY TUES AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE REGION INTO EARLY
TUES EVENING AND PUSHING OUT TO SEA LATE TUES EVENING. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE A NARROW AND UNORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE BIGGEST LIMITATION TO INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL DEWPOINTS. MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG WHILE SREF CAPE PROBS >1K J/KG ARE ONLY 20 PCT.
LI VALUES ALSO GENERALLY 0 TO -2. WITH THAT...DO ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 25-30
KT) WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO LIKELY POPS (GENERALLY
NORTH OF RICHMOND). QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFFSHORE TUES
EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TUES NIGHT AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BREEZY NW WINDS
(10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH) WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING FARTHER THAN THE MID- UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NW ON WEDS AS NW FLOW PERSISTS. REMNANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH (LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE)
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW 30S...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND. DRY AGAIN ON THURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION...AND LOCATES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE THURS. LOWS THURS MORNING FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S INLAND. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST WEDS NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COOL DAY THURS (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S) AS
FLOW REMAINS NW-W. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS-
LATE THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL VEER THE
FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THURS-THURS NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM
FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. TRAILING COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WLY FLOW OVER THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 50S FRI. BEST
DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING SPEEDS ALOFT
AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM. WITH THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE
STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN WLY FLOW. COOLER SUNDAY AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS SEWD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS/LOW CIGS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SE OF ALL TAF SITES...GENLY
SKC NOW WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND AND NE WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH 21Z
NEAR THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KPHF/KECG WHERE TEMP/DEW PT DEPRESSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 4SM VSBYS AND JUST A LOW
SCT CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW AS IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD CIGS BECOME. LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...AND THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY WX RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF FAIRLY GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES FROM 06-21Z
WED (GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT). LESS WIND WED NIGHT/THU. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS...WITH SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. STILL
NOTING SEAS OF 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT 18Z...THUS SCA
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.

SFC LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-8 FT
BY THIS AFTN. FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS FINALLY FALL BELOW 5FT
BY TUE MORNING. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END SCA OVER THE
BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF SCA EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY
CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A SHORT LIVED
SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT, QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211753
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
153 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SRN STREAM UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SLOWLY PUSHING OUT TO SEA. AT THE
SFC...COASTAL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA (ONGOING NE FLOW). LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS STILL HANGING ON OVER SE VA/NE NC...BUT WILL THIN/ERODE
BY LATE MORNING. SUNNY ELSEWHERE. RADAR RETURNS REMAIN CONFINED
OFF THE NC COAST...AND MOVING OFFSHORE.

FOR TODAY...SRN STREAM SPEED MAX WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FARTHER OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SPLIT FLOW OVER THE
CONUS WILL FEATURE A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SRN CANADA AND A
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL
BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS TODAY AS THEY MARCH
EWD...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUT IN ADVANCE. AMPLIFYING
FLOW WILL BUILD A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NWLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL/SFC N-NE FLOW WILL PERSIST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS/WAA WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S OVER INTERIOR
VA/NC(REGARDLESS OF NELY FLOW)...BUT NE FLOW NEAR THE COAST WILL ONLY
PRODUCE TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE OH VLY MON EVENG...WILL PUSH E AND
OVR THE MTNS TUE MORNG. THAT FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FM
W TO E TUE...ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. MOST OF IF NOT ALL THE
SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN W...AND TWD LATE AFTN/EVENG E
ON TUE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF A TSTM...THOUGH DYNAMICS
WEAKENING WITH TIME...AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. LO TEMPS MON
NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. HI TEMPS ON TUE WILL
RANGE FM THE MID TO UPR 70S INLAND...TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S AT
THE CST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA TUE NGT...WITH SGFNT DRYING
AND A PERIOD OF COOLING THEREAFTER (FM AFTR MIDNGT TUE NGT THRU WED).
MAINTAINING 30-40% POPS ERN PORTION OF THE FA TUE EVENG...15-25%
ELSEWHERE...THEN CLEARING AFTR MIDNGT...AS WINDS BECOME NW. NEAR
SEASONABLE/CLEAR-PRTLY CLOUDY WX THEN EXPECTED WED WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS...MAINLY ERN PORTION. LO TEMPS TUE NGT RANGING FM THE MID
40S NW TO THE LWR 50S SE. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST WEDS NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COOL DAY THURS (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S) AS
FLOW REMAINS NW-W. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS-
LATE THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL VEER THE
FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THURS-THURS NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM
FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. TRAILING COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WLY FLOW OVER THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 50S FRI. BEST
DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING SPEEDS ALOFT
AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM. WITH THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE
STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN WLY FLOW. COOLER SUNDAY AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS SEWD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS/LOW CIGS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SE OF ALL TAF SITES...GENLY
SKC NOW WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND AND NE WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH 21Z
NEAR THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KPHF/KECG WHERE TEMP/DEW PT DEPRESSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 4SM VSBYS AND JUST A LOW
SCT CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW AS IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD CIGS BECOME. LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...AND THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY WX RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF FAIRLY GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES FROM 06-21Z
WED (GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT). LESS WIND WED NIGHT/THU. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES LOOK RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS...WITH SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. STILL
NOTING SEAS OF 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT 18Z...THUS SCA
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT.

SFC LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-8 FT
BY THIS AFTN. FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS FINALLY FALL BELOW 5FT
BY TUE MORNING. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END SCA OVER THE
BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF SCA EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY
CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A SHORT LIVED
SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT, QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAM








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