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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290133
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
933 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CANCELLED THE WATCH AT 9 PM AS THE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THAT
REGION. DESPITE MOST OF THE FA WEDGED IN A COOL AIRMASS AT THE
SFC... MERGING BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
COOL SFC AIR PREVENTING STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE GRND...BUT
NMRS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PAST SVRL HRS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO
PULSE. AREAS OF FOG BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM FRI OVER THE WATERS GIVEN CRNT CONDITONS.
DON`T SEE VSBYS IMPROVING OVER THE WATER UNTIL AFTER SR. CONVECTION
SLOWLY TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLGHT CHC ALONG THE COAST
AFTER 08Z. SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOWS IN THE U40S-L50S
EXCEPT M-U50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ALL THE TAF SITES WERE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
NORTHEAST WINDS. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR IS PRESENT. SOME VLIFR IS
PSBL OVERNIGHT. AT ECG...VFR CONDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT
ONLY TO MVFR. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WHEN CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY BUT IFR
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT PULLS NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/LSA
MARINE...BMD/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290133
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
933 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CANCELLED THE WATCH AT 9 PM AS THE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THAT
REGION. DESPITE MOST OF THE FA WEDGED IN A COOL AIRMASS AT THE
SFC... MERGING BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
COOL SFC AIR PREVENTING STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE GRND...BUT
NMRS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PAST SVRL HRS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO
PULSE. AREAS OF FOG BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM FRI OVER THE WATERS GIVEN CRNT CONDITONS.
DON`T SEE VSBYS IMPROVING OVER THE WATER UNTIL AFTER SR. CONVECTION
SLOWLY TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLGHT CHC ALONG THE COAST
AFTER 08Z. SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOWS IN THE U40S-L50S
EXCEPT M-U50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ALL THE TAF SITES WERE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
NORTHEAST WINDS. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR IS PRESENT. SOME VLIFR IS
PSBL OVERNIGHT. AT ECG...VFR CONDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT
ONLY TO MVFR. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WHEN CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY BUT IFR
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT PULLS NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/LSA
MARINE...BMD/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
930 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CANCELLED THE WATCH AT 9 PM AS THE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THAT
REGION. DESPITE MOST OF THE FA WEDGED IN A COOL AIRMASS AT THE
SFC... MERGING BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
COOL SFC AIR PREVENTING STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE GRND...BUT
NMRS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PAST SVRL HRS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO
PULSE. AREAS OF FOG BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVSRY THROUGH 10 AM FRI OVER THE WATERS GIVEN CRNT CONDITONS.
DON`T SEE VSBYS IMPROVING OVER THE WATER UNTIL AFTER SR. CONVECTION
SLOWLY TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLGHT CHC ALONG THE COAST
AFTER 08Z. SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOWS IN THE U40S-L50S
EXCEPT M-U50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ALL THE TAF SITES WERE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
NORTHEAST WINDS. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR IS PRESENT. SOME VLIFR IS
PSBL OVERNIGHT. AT ECG...VFR CONDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT
ONLY TO MVFR. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WHEN CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY BUT IFR
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT PULLS NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/LSA
MARINE...BMD/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
809 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TSTMS THAT CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DESPITE THE STABLE AND COOLER
AIRMASS. APPEARS WEAK TROF / CONVERGENCE LINE MOVING ACROSS NRN VA
THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THESE GOING A FEW MORE HRS. STILL SOME
STRONG TSTMS MOVG EAST INTO NERN NC COUNTYS BUT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO WEDGED AREAS.

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. ADDED THUNDER TO
WESTER PIEDMONT AREA NEXT FEW HRS AS TSTMS TRACK EAST IVOF I64.
KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN ZONES IN THE WATCH BOX FOR THE PULSE TYP
STORMS. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND PAST HALF HOUR BUT
DON`T THINK SEVERE THREAT IS OVER JUST YET GIVEN THE CELLS
MARCHING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE ZONES
BASED OFF CURRENT VSBYS. MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR THE
WATERS LATER ON.

PVS DSCN:
WW119 ISSUED FOR OUR SW TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NE
NC...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-58 AND WEST OF A JACKSON NC TO
EMPORIA VA LINE UNTIL 11PM. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...
THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SFC
LOW TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PCPN EXITS OFFSHORE AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ALL THE TAF SITES WERE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
NORTHEAST WINDS. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR IS PRESENT. SOME VLIFR IS
PSBL OVERNIGHT. AT ECG...VFR CONDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
LOWERING TO IFR OR LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT
ONLY TO MVFR. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WHEN CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY BUT IFR
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT PULLS NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/LSA
MARINE...BMD/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
806 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TSTMS THAT CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DESPITE THE STABLE AND COOLER
AIRMASS. APPEARS WEAK TROF / CONVERGENCE LINE MOVING ACROSS NRN VA
THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THESE GOING A FEW MORE HRS. STILL SOME
STRONG TSTMS MOVG EAST INTO NERN NC COUNTYS BUT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO WEDGED AREAS.

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. ADDED THUNDER TO
WESTER PIEDMONT AREA NEXT FEW HRS AS TSTMS TRACK EAST IVOF I64.
KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN ZONES IN THE WATCH BOX FOR THE PULSE TYP
STORMS. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND PAST HALF HOUR BUT
DON`T THINK SEVERE THREAT IS OVER JUST YET GIVEN THE CELLS
MARCHING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE ZONES
BASED OFF CURRENT VSBYS. MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR THE
WATERS LATER ON.

PVS DSCN:
WW119 ISSUED FOR OUR SW TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NE
NC...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-58 AND WEST OF A JACKSON NC TO
EMPORIA VA LINE UNTIL 11PM. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...
THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SFC
LOW TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PCPN EXITS OFFSHORE AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS
AFTN. SBY/RIC/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES
NWD. A WAVE LATER THIS EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
BUT COLD AIR WEDGE AND CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...BMD/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282310
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
710 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. ADDED THUNDER TO
WESTER PIEDMONT AREA NEXT FEW HRS AS TSTMS TRACK EAST IVOF I64.
KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN ZONES IN THE WATCH BOX FOR THE PULSE TYP
STORMS. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND PAST HALF HOUR BUT
DON`T THINK SEVERE THREAT IS OVER JUST YET GIVEN THE CELLS
MARCHING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE ZONES
BASED OFF CURRENT VSBYS. MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR THE
WATERS LATER ON.

PVS DSCN:
WW119 ISSUED FOR OUR SW TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NE
NC...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-58 AND WEST OF A JACKSON NC TO
EMPORIA VA LINE UNTIL 11PM. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...
THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SFC
LOW TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PCPN EXITS OFFSHORE AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS
AFTN. SBY/RIC/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES
NWD. A WAVE LATER THIS EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
BUT COLD AIR WEDGE AND CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&


.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...BMD/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282310
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
710 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. ADDED THUNDER TO
WESTER PIEDMONT AREA NEXT FEW HRS AS TSTMS TRACK EAST IVOF I64.
KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN ZONES IN THE WATCH BOX FOR THE PULSE TYP
STORMS. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND PAST HALF HOUR BUT
DON`T THINK SEVERE THREAT IS OVER JUST YET GIVEN THE CELLS
MARCHING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. ADDED FOG TO THE MARINE ZONES
BASED OFF CURRENT VSBYS. MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVSRY FOR THE
WATERS LATER ON.

PVS DSCN:
WW119 ISSUED FOR OUR SW TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NE
NC...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-58 AND WEST OF A JACKSON NC TO
EMPORIA VA LINE UNTIL 11PM. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...
THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SFC
LOW TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PCPN EXITS OFFSHORE AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS
AFTN. SBY/RIC/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES
NWD. A WAVE LATER THIS EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
BUT COLD AIR WEDGE AND CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&


.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...BMD/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY... BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WW119 ISSUED FOR OUR SW TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NE
NC...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-58 AND WEST OF A JACKSON NC TO
EMPORIA VA LINE UNTIL 11PM. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WAVY/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND OF NE NC
BACK INTO FAR WESTERN VA AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

BEGINNING TO NOTE INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE
SFC. HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED
JUST SOUTH OF COOL SECTOR/CAD WEDGE AIRMASS ACROSS S CENTRAL VA
AND NE NC. SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL...WHILE PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. FAIRLY
UNIFORM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF ~25-35KT PORTEND TO SEMI-
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HRRR/RUC AND FAVORABLE LIFT INDICES OVER
THIS AREA PER MSAS ANALYSIS. SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
INLAND NE NC (MAINLY WEST OF THE CHOWAN RIVER), AND IT IS STILL
BELIEVED TO BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...

THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SFC
LOW TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PCPN EXITS OFFSHORE AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
50S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS
AFTN. SBY/RIC/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES
NWD. A WAVE LATER THIS EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
BUT COLD AIR WEDGE AND CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MAM/SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A WAVY/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND OF NE NC
BACK INTO FAR WESTERN VA AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

BEGINNING TO NOTE INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE
SFC. HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED
JUST SOUTH OF COOL SECTOR/CAD WEDGE AIRMASS ACROSS S CENTRAL VA
AND NE NC. SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL...WHILE PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. FAIRLY
UNIFORM DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES OF ~25-35KT PORTEND TO SEMI-
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HRRR/RUC AND FAVORABLE LIFT INDICES OVER
THIS AREA PER MSAS ANALYSIS. SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
INLAND NE NC (MAINLY WEST OF THE CHOWAN RIVER), AND IT IS STILL
BELIEVED TO BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...

THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SFC
LOW TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PCPN EXITS OFFSHORE AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFF THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
50S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS FRONT PUSHES A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/LGT RAIN, BUT WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN...CHANCES OF MEASURING ARE LOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE U50S TO LOW 60S NORTH...TO MID 70S SOUTH.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS BUT CONTINUED MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
SE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. LEAD WAVE LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SAT
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NRN VA
AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY
ARRIVE FASTER AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THUS
HAVE SPED TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS...SAT EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
EXCEPT IN THE SE SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW DROPS THE FRONT OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL/BENEFICIAL RAINFALL COMING ALONG THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS
FOR ALL. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE MON WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
AND LIFT PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WRN CONUS...RESULTING IN TROUGHING THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO STALL THE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST MON DUE TO WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO ITS GFS
COUNTERPART. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE SHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. PREFER THE GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN...BUT WILL
NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INLAND AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY TUES AND WEDS AS THE ECMWF LIFTS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S (COOLER ALONG THE COAST). WARMEST DAY BEING MON WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/POSSIBLY UPPER 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS
AFTN. SBY/RIC/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES
NWD. A WAVE LATER THIS EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
BUT COLD AIR WEDGE AND CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN
WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. NE LLVL WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND
NWPS/WNAWAVE BOTH AGREE W/SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT SEAS LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO
SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NE COAST SATURDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FT. LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS. FLOW BECOMES SWLY SUN AOB 15 KT. COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. LACK OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT BUILD
SEAS TO 4 FT MON NIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 5 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT. THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...BMD/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...MAINLY
TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WAVY/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NRN/NORTH CENTRAL NC BACK INTO FAR WESTERN
VA AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

BY MID TO LATE AFTN...DRY SLOT ALOFT EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL
PUSH EAST, AND WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL LIFT LATE IN THE
DAY/THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE SFC. HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ACROSS S CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.
SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN PLENTY
OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT EVIDENT IN SOUNDING PROFILES
TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FAIRLY UNIFORM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES OF ~25-35KT PORTEND TO SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND SPC CONTINUES MARGINAL RISK ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SE VA AND COASTAL NE NC...WITH SLIGHT RISK ACROSS INLAND
NE NC (MAINLY WEST OF THE CHOWAN RIVER).

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN SIMILAR TO WED BUT WITH THE SHARPER TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT NUDGED FARTHER SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S SW.

TONIGHT...

THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EXITS THE COAST BY FRI MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NE NC THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE
LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON FRI AS SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST
IN THE MORNING AND A FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NW. THIS FINAL WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FRI AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE
IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY
SATURATED. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S NW TO LOW-MID 70S SW. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION INTO SAT. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM THE WRN FRINGES OF CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER ALL SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SAT
MORNING FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINSSAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR APART. BASED ON MOISTURE
FIELDS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/LIFT. GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HAVING WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...WHILE SREF/NAM ARE LESS
BULLISH UNTIL AFTER SUN MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT
PRECIP WORDING LIMITED TO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR WRN HALF OF
CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ERN HALF. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S (MID- UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN
VA COUNTIES). HIGHS SAT IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 FAR SW COUNTIES OF
SOUTH CENTRAL VA/INLAND NE NC. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST (BUT STABLE) AIR
MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THRU
THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS MONDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS
AFTN. SBY/RIC/PHF/ORF ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES
NWD. A WAVE LATER THIS EVENING COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
BUT COLD AIR WEDGE AND CLOUD SHIELD MAY INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONT HAS SETTLED ACROSS NE NC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED OVER NC THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT
LAKES IS RIDGING SE TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK LOCALLY WITH AN E-NE WIND
AVERAGING AOB 10KT. LINGERING SWELL IS PRODUCING 3-4FT SEAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EWD TODAY...WITH THE FRONT ONLY
LIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD TO THE VA/NC BORDER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ENE
TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
BE 3-4FT N...TO 2- 3FT S ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. A NE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15- 20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 4-6FT SEAS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST
SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF EARLIER THIS MORNING ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LWR EASTERN SHORE
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281514
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1114 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...MAINLY
TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WAVY/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NRN/NORTH CENTRAL NC BACK INTO FAR WESTERN
VA AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

BY MID TO LATE AFTN...DRY SLOT ALOFT EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL
PUSH EAST, AND WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL LIFT LATE IN THE
DAY/THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE SFC. HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ACROSS S CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.
SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN PLENTY
OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT EVIDENT IN SOUNDING PROFILES
TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FAIRLY UNIFORM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES OF ~25-35KT PORTEND TO SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND SPC CONTINUES MARGINAL RISK ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SE VA AND COASTAL NE NC...WITH SLIGHT RISK ACROSS INLAND
NE NC (MAINLY WEST OF THE CHOWAN RIVER).

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN SIMILAR TO WED BUT WITH THE SHARPER TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT NUDGED FARTHER SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S SW.

TONIGHT...

THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EXITS THE COAST BY FRI MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NE NC THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE
LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON FRI AS SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST
IN THE MORNING AND A FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NW. THIS FINAL WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FRI AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE
IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY
SATURATED. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S NW TO LOW-MID 70S SW. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION INTO SAT. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM THE WRN FRINGES OF CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER ALL SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SAT
MORNING FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CENTRALPLAINS
SAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR APART. BASED ON MOISTURE FIELDS...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT.
GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HAVING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...WHILE SREF/NAM ARE LESS BULLISH UNTIL
AFTER SUN MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT PRECIP WORDING
LIMITED TO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR WRN HALF OF CWA AND SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE ERN HALF. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (MID-
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).
HIGHS SAT IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 FAR SW COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VA/INLAND NE NC. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH/MID 50S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST (BUT STABLE) AIR
MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THRU
THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS MONDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS
MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED
IFR AT RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY WAS IFR EARLIER...BUT HAS IMPROVED TO
VFR AS SOME DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE NE. RIC/PHF/ORF ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. ECG HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NWD...AND SBY IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR BY MIDDAY DUE TO THIS NWD SHIFT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE W THIS MORNING AND THIS
IS PRODUCING AREAS OF -RA. ANOTHER WAVE LATER TODAY COULD TRIGGER
SOME AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE FRONT NUDGES NWD TODAY TOWARD THE
VA/NC BORDER...BUT THEN SETTLES BACK SWD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. ALL SITES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CIGS
BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER
     LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF
RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED OVER NC THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT
LAKES IS RIDGING SE TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK LOCALLY WITH AN E-NE WIND
AVERAGING AOB 10KT. LINGERING SWELL IS PRODUCING 3-4FT SEAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EWD TODAY...WITH THE FRONT ONLY
LIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD TO THE VA/NC BORDER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ENE
TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
BE 3-4FT N...TO 2- 3FT S ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. A NE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15- 20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 4-6FT SEAS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST
SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF EARLIER THIS MORNING ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LWR EASTERN SHORE
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1111 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...MAINLY
TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES A BIT MORE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WAVY/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NRN/NORTH CENTRAL NC

BY MID TO LATE AFTN...DRY SLOT ALOFT EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL
PUSH EAST, AND WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL LIFT LATE IN THE
DAY/THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE SFC. HI-RES CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED ACROSS S CENTRAL VA AND NE NC.
SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL
SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN PLENTY
OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT EVIDENT IN SOUNDING PROFILES
TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FAIRLY UNIFORM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES OF ~25-35KT PORTEND TO SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY AND SPC CONTINUES MARGINAL RISK ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/SE VA AND COASTAL NE NC...WITH SLIGHT RISK ACROSS INLAND
NE NC (MAINLY WEST OF THE CHOWAN RIVER).

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN SIMILAR TO WED BUT WITH THE SHARPER TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT NUDGED FARTHER SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S SW.

TONIGHT...

THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EXITS THE COAST BY FRI MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NE NC THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE
LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON FRI AS SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST
IN THE MORNING AND A FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NW. THIS FINAL WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FRI AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE
IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY
SATURATED. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S NW TO LOW-MID 70S SW. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION INTO SAT. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM THE WRN FRINGES OF CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER ALL SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SAT
MORNING FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CENTRALPLAINS
SAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR APART. BASED ON MOISTURE FIELDS...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE
AREA FROM SW TO NE DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT.
GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HAVING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...WHILE SREF/NAM ARE LESS BULLISH UNTIL
AFTER SUN MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT PRECIP WORDING
LIMITED TO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR WRN HALF OF CWA AND SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE ERN HALF. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (MID-
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).
HIGHS SAT IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 FAR SW COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VA/INLAND NE NC. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH/MID 50S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST (BUT STABLE) AIR
MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THRU
THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS MONDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS
MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED
IFR AT RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY WAS IFR EARLIER...BUT HAS IMPROVED TO
VFR AS SOME DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE NE. RIC/PHF/ORF ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. ECG HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NWD...AND SBY IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR BY MIDDAY DUE TO THIS NWD SHIFT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE W THIS MORNING AND THIS
IS PRODUCING AREAS OF -RA. ANOTHER WAVE LATER TODAY COULD TRIGGER
SOME AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE FRONT NUDGES NWD TODAY TOWARD THE
VA/NC BORDER...BUT THEN SETTLES BACK SWD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. ALL SITES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CIGS
BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER
     LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF
RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED OVER NC THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT
LAKES IS RIDGING SE TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK LOCALLY WITH AN E-NE WIND
AVERAGING AOB 10KT. LINGERING SWELL IS PRODUCING 3-4FT SEAS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EWD TODAY...WITH THE FRONT ONLY
LIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD TO THE VA/NC BORDER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ENE
TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
BE 3-4FT N...TO 2- 3FT S ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. A NE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15- 20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 4-6FT SEAS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS
IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST
SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ATTM. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF EARLIER THIS MORNING ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LWR EASTERN SHORE
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281110
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
710 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER NRN NC AND IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BTWN THIS AREA
AND SCNTRL VA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
NE NC AS OF 400 AM...HOWEVER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY WANED
WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRIKES HERE AND THERE. THE ATMOSPHERE HERE IS
FAIRLY WORKED OVER AT THIS POINT AND AM ANTICIPATING PRIMARILY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NWRN BERTIE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL KEPT
GENERATING AND CROSSING THIS SAME AREA OVER SEVERAL HOURS
OVERNIGHT. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 3.50 INCHES BUT IS
MORE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN REALITY. FLOOD
ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 700 AM WHICH APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
ATTM AS PRECIP IS FINALLY SHIFTING EWD AND AWAY FROM THE IMPACT
AREA. OVERALL...THE BULK OF PRECIP GENERATION IS OCCURRING NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD
NWD THROUGH TODAY. DESPITE THIS TREND...COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS A DRY SLOT SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ENTRAINS INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS. BY THIS AFTN...THE DRY
SLOT WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THUS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE SFC. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SCNTRL VA AND NE NC ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONT. SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN SOUNDING PROFILES
TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND SHEAR PROFILES
ALSO SUGGEST THAT LINE SEGMENTS ARE MORE PROBABLE TODAY. SPC HAS
SCNTRL VA AND NE NC AREAS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.
HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED BUT WITH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR...UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S SW.

THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EXITS THE COAST BY FRI MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NE NC THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE
LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON FRI AS SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST
IN THE MORNING AND A FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NW. THIS FINAL WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FRI AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE
IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY
SATURATED. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S NW TO LOW-MID 70S SW. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION INTO SAT. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM THE WRN FRINGES OF CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER ALL SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SAT
MORNING FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CNTRL
PLAINS SAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR APART. BASED ON MOISTURE
FIELDS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/LIFT. GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HAVING WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...WHILE SREF/NAM ARE LESS
BULLISH UNTIL AFTER SUN MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT
PRECIP WORDING LIMITED TO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR WRN HALF OF
CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ERN HALF. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S (MID- UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR
NRN VA COUNTIES). HIGHS SAT IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 FAR SW COUNTIES
OF SCNTRL VA/INLAND NE NC. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST (BUT STABLE) AIR
MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THRU
THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS MONDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SITUATED W-E OVER NRN/ERN NC THIS
MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE...BUT HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED
IFR AT RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG. SBY WAS IFR EARLIER...BUT HAS IMPROVED TO
VFR AS SOME DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED IN FROM THE NE. RIC/PHF/ORF ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. ECG HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT BUCKLES NWD...AND SBY IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO IFR BY MIDDAY DUE TO THIS NWD SHIFT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE W THIS MORNING AND THIS
IS PRODUCING AREAS OF -RA. ANOTHER WAVE LATER TODAY COULD TRIGGER
SOME AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE FRONT NUDGES NWD TODAY TOWARD THE
VA/NC BORDER...BUT THEN SETTLES BACK SWD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE. ALL SITES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CIGS
BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER
...LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF
RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED OVER NC THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT
LAKES IS RIDGING SEWD TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK LOCALLY WITH AN E-NE WIND AVERAGING
AOB 10KT. LINGERING SWELL IS PRODUCING 3-4FT SEAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWD TODAY...WITH THE FRONT ONLY LIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD
TO THE VA/NC BORDER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ENE TO THE N OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-4FT N...TO 2-
3FT S ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. A NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-
20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF 4-6FT SEAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW
WELL OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY
LOWER...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
ATTM. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE AVERAGING 1.0-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER
LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT BISHOPS HEAD AND
CAMBRIDGE DURING HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY LATER TODAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280914
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
514 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER NRN NC AND IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BTWN THIS AREA
AND SCNTRL VA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
NE NC AS OF 400 AM...HOWEVER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY WANED
WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRIKES HERE AND THERE. THE ATMOSPHERE HERE IS
FAIRLY WORKED OVER AT THIS POINT AND AM ANTICIPATING PRIMARILY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NWRN BERTIE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL KEPT
GENERATING AND CROSSING THIS SAME AREA OVER SEVERAL HOURS
OVERNIGHT. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 3.50 INCHES BUT IS
MORE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN REALITY. FLOOD
ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 700 AM WHICH APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
ATTM AS PRECIP IS FINALLY SHIFTING EWD AND AWAY FROM THE IMPACT
AREA. OVERALL...THE BULK OF PRECIP GENERATION IS OCCURRING NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD
NWD THROUGH TODAY. DESPITE THIS TREND...COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS A DRY SLOT SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ENTRAINS INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS. BY THIS AFTN...THE DRY
SLOT WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THUS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE SFC. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SCNTRL VA AND NE NC ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONT. SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN SOUNDING PROFILES
TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND SHEAR PROFILES
ALSO SUGGEST THAT LINE SEGMENTS ARE MORE PROBABLE TODAY. SPC HAS
SCNTRL VA AND NE NC AREAS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.
HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED BUT WITH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR...UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S SW.

THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EXITS THE COAST BY FRI MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NE NC THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE
LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON FRI AS SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST
IN THE MORNING AND A FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NW. THIS FINAL WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FRI AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE
IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY
SATURATED. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S NW TO LOW-MID 70S SW. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION INTO SAT. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM THE WRN FRINGES OF CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER ALL SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SAT
MORNING FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CNTRL
PLAINS SAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR APART. BASED ON MOISTURE
FIELDS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/LIFT. GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HAVING WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...WHILE SREF/NAM ARE LESS
BULLISH UNTIL AFTER SUN MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT
PRECIP WORDING LIMITED TO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR WRN HALF OF
CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ERN HALF. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S (MID- UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR
NRN VA COUNTIES). HIGHS SAT IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 FAR SW COUNTIES
OF SCNTRL VA/INLAND NE NC. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST (BUT STABLE) AIR
MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THRU
THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS MONDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED W-E OVER ERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALL TAF SITES ARE ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS IN NE FLOW. A SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF TSTMS
LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF NE NC...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY IS W OF
ECG WITH ONLY -RA OCCURRING THERE. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ECG IN THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
TSTM COMPLEX. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT ALL SITES...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AT SBY AND ECG
LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIC/ORF/PHF REMAIN
IFR THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS COULD TRIGGER AREAS OF -RA. ANOTHER
WAVE LATER TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE FRONT
NUDGES NWD TODAY TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER...BUT THEN SETTLES BACK
SWD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ALL SITES ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CIGS BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PULLS
WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED OVER NC THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT
LAKES IS RIDGING SEWD TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK LOCALLY WITH AN E-NE WIND AVERAGING
AOB 10KT. LINGERING SWELL IS PRODUCING 3-4FT SEAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWD TODAY...WITH THE FRONT ONLY LIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD
TO THE VA/NC BORDER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ENE TO THE N OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-4FT N...TO 2-
3FT S ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. A NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-
20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF 4-6FT SEAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW
WELL OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY
LOWER...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
ATTM. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE AVERAGING 1.0-1.5FT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER
LEVELS WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT BISHOPS HEAD AND
CAMBRIDGE DURING HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY LATER TODAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280858
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
458 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT HAS
STALLED OVER NRN NC AND IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BTWN THIS AREA
AND SCNTRL VA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
NE NC AS OF 400 AM...HOWEVER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY WANED
WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRIKES HERE AND THERE. THE ATMOSPHERE HERE IS
FAIRLY WORKED OVER AT THIS POINT AND AM ANTICIPATING PRIMARILY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NWRN BERTIE COUNTY WHERE RAINFALL KEPT
GENERATING AND CROSSING THIS SAME AREA OVER SEVERAL HOURS
OVERNIGHT. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 3.50 INCHES BUT IS
MORE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES IN REALITY. FLOOD
ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 700 AM WHICH APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
ATTM AS PRECIP IS FINALLY SHIFTING EWD AND AWAY FROM THE IMPACT
AREA. OVERALL...THE BULK OF PRECIP GENERATION IS OCCURRING NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD
NWD THROUGH TODAY. DESPITE THIS TREND...COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS A DRY SLOT SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ENTRAINS INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS. BY THIS AFTN...THE DRY
SLOT WILL HELP ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THUS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND BOOSTS LIFT AT THE SFC. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SCNTRL VA AND NE NC ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONT. SIMILAR TO WED...ELEVATED LIFT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN SOUNDING PROFILES
TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND SHEAR PROFILES
ALSO SUGGEST THAT LINE SEGMENTS ARE MORE PROBABLE TODAY. SPC HAS
SCNTRL VA AND NE NC AREAS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.
HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED BUT WITH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR...UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S SW.

THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN NC TONIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TWD THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW
TRAVELS EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EXITS THE COAST BY FRI MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NE NC THIS EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE
LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
ALONG/NE OF INTERSTATE 64 (UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN
SHORE)...MID-UPPER 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON FRI AS SFC LOW EXITS THE COAST
IN THE MORNING AND A FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NW. THIS FINAL WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FRI AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE
IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY
SATURATED. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S NW TO LOW-MID 70S SW. DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION INTO SAT. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM THE WRN FRINGES OF CHES BAY TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER ALL SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SAT
MORNING FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CNTRL
PLAINS SAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SHEAR APART. BASED ON MOISTURE
FIELDS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT TO BRING
PRECIP INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/LIFT. GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HAVING WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...WHILE SREF/NAM ARE LESS
BULLISH UNTIL AFTER SUN MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT
PRECIP WORDING LIMITED TO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE FOR WRN HALF OF
CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ERN HALF. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 50S (MID- UPPER 40S POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR
NRN VA COUNTIES). HIGHS SAT IN THE 60S...AROUND 70 FAR SW COUNTIES
OF SCNTRL VA/INLAND NE NC. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTH/MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST (BUT STABLE) AIR
MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THRU
THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS MONDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED W-E OVER ERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALL TAF SITES ARE ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS IN NE FLOW. A SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF TSTMS
LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF NE NC...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY IS W OF
ECG WITH ONLY -RA OCCURRING THERE. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ECG IN THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
TSTM COMPLEX. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT ALL SITES...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AT SBY AND ECG
LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIC/ORF/PHF REMAIN
IFR THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS COULD TRIGGER AREAS OF -RA. ANOTHER
WAVE LATER TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE FRONT
NUDGES NWD TODAY TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER...BUT THEN SETTLES BACK
SWD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ALL SITES ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CIGS BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PULLS
WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED OVER NC THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GREAT
LAKES IS RIDGING SEWD TOWARD THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK LOCALLY WITH AN E-NE WIND AVERAGING
AOB 10KT. LINGERING SWELL IS PRODUCING 3-4FT SEAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EWD TODAY...WITH THE FRONT ONLY LIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD
TO THE VA/NC BORDER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN ENE TO THE N OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH SPEEDS AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-4FT N...TO 2-
3FT S ALONG WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE BAY. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. A NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-
20KT N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF 4-6FT SEAS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN SCA HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SLIDES THE LOW
WELL OFFSHORE BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HENCE...FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AND FORECAST SEAS ARE CORRESPONDINGLY
LOWER...SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
ATTM. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280644
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
244 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATE EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWING THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH E/NE FLOW NOW PREVAILING. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ONGOING ACRS FAR SRN VA AND NE NC...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS ACRS I-64 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL VA. HAVE 60-70% POPS IN
THESE AREAS...ELSEWHERE POPS ARE 20-40% FOR JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY TSTMS
PUSHING THROUGH METRO NORFOLK DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN MID 50S AND
ZERO CAPE. NAM12/RAP SHOW A STRIP OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES
ACRS SE VA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS FOR
KEEPING TSTMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. JUST SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS LOW LEVELS ARE NOW
STABLE...EVEN INTO NE NC. PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WILL KEEP POP NO LOWER THAN 30-50% OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKING TO
CROSS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE SFC FRONT STALLED ACRS THE
AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK TO LOWER 60S INTERIOR NE NC
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z/27 MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST,
ALBEIT A BIT LATER INTO THU MORNING. DESPITE PWATS ~1.25" ACROSS
THE NORTH, PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS LIMITED...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY DROPPED POPS BACK INTO CHC
RANGE THU/THU NIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATON IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
SRN VA/NE NC ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS THU
IN THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED OVER THE WRN CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(BEGINNING FRIDAY)...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROGGED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE VICINITY OF WRN PA.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PA LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE AS THE WAVY FRONT WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES DIFFUSE.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN COOL/STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EXPECT THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL
VA TO REMAIN DRY. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS FRI AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOW/MID 50S SOUTH UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. SKY
AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO
OVERSPREAD THE PIEDMONT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AND POINTS
EWD THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
(BUT STABLE) AIR MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING
THE FRONT THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE
POPS MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED W-E OVER ERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALL TAF SITES ARE ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS IN NE FLOW. A SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF TSTMS
LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF NE NC...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY IS W OF
ECG WITH ONLY -RA OCCURRING THERE. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR ECG IN THE STRATIFORM REGION OF THE
TSTM COMPLEX. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AT ALL SITES...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE AT SBY AND ECG
LATER THIS MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RIC/ORF/PHF REMAIN
IFR THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS COULD TRIGGER AREAS OF -RA. ANOTHER
WAVE LATER TODAY COULD TRIGGER SOME AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE FRONT
NUDGES NWD TODAY TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER...BUT THEN SETTLES BACK
SWD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ALL SITES ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CIGS BY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PULLS
WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN NE
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
AFTN, PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THIS OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE BACK NORTH TO NEAR THE
VA NC BORDER THURSDAY. HAVE DROPPED SCA ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS, WITH BUOY 09 DROPPING BELOW 5 FT, AND WITH NWPS/WAVEWATCH
BOTH DEPICTING SEAS SUBSIDING TO ~4FT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. E-NE
WIND 10-15KT CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. SEAS
BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN IN INCREASING NE FLOW, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS
LATE THU NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. N TO NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE FRIDAY. AOB 15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT.
WAVES 2 TO 3. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT CONTINUE SAT
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH 3 TO 4 FT WAVES IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 FT AND 4
TO 5 FT AT TIMES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM/SAM/LSA





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280129
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
929 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWING THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH E/NE FLOW NOW PREVAILING. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ONGOING ACRS FAR SRN VA AND NE NC...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS ACRS I-64 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL VA. HAVE 60-70% POPS IN
THESE AREAS...ELSEWHERE POPS ARE 20-40% FOR JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS EVIDENCED BY TSTMS
PUSHING THROUGH METRO NORFOLK DESPITE SFC TEMPS IN MID 50S AND
ZERO CAPE. NAM12/RAP SHOW A STRIP OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES
ACRS SE VA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS FOR
KEEPING TSTMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. JUST SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS LOW LEVELS ARE NOW
STABLE...EVEN INTO NE NC. PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS TO DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WILL KEEP POP NO LOWER THAN 30-50% OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT LOOKING TO
CROSS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE SFC FRONT STALLED ACRS THE
AREA. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EASTERN SHORE/NORTHERN NECK TO LOWER 60S INTERIOR NE NC
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z/27 MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST,
ALBEIT A BIT LATER INTO THU MORNING. DESPITE PWATS ~1.25" ACROSS
THE NORTH, PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS LIMITED...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY DROPPED POPS BACK INTO CHC
RANGE THU/THU NIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATON IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
SRN VA/NE NC ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS THU
IN THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED OVER THE WRN CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(BEGINNING FRIDAY)...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROGGED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE VICINITY OF WRN PA.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PA LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE AS THE WAVY FRONT WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES DIFFUSE.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN COOL/STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EXPECT THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL
VA TO REMAIN DRY. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS FRI AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOW/MID 50S SOUTH UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. SKY
AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO
OVERSPREAD THE PIEDMONT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AND POINTS
EWD THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
(BUT STABLE) AIR MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING
THE FRONT THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE
POPS MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WAS PRESENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF ECG AT
23Z. TSTMS WERE SCATTERED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WITH SHOWERS
REACHING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA...ALL MOVING TO THE EAST.

IFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT THE SRN THREE SITES BUT SHOULD
CONCENTRATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND INTO RICHMOND DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HAVE ECG MAINLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH A TEMPO IFR THROUGH 04Z. NE
WINDS BECOME S/SW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH VFR AFT 15Z. SBY
SHOULD ALSO BE MAINLY MVFR WHERE THE DEW POINT SPREAD HAS INCREASED
DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HAVE A FEW HOURS IN
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN IT MAY GO TO IFR. HAVE RICHMOND IFR
STARTING AT 03Z AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HIGH END IFR THURSDAY MORNING BUT WON`T
RULE OUT MVFR DURING THE DAY. ORF AND PHF APPEAR TO REMAIN IFR FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM
NEARBY BODIES OF COOL WATER.

OUTLOOK...MORE IFR CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH LATER FRIDAY WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
AFTN, PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THIS OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE BACK NORTH TO NEAR THE
VA NC BORDER THURSDAY. HAVE DROPPED SCA ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS, WITH BUOY 09 DROPPING BELOW 5 FT, AND WITH NWPS/WAVEWATCH
BOTH DEPICTING SEAS SUBSIDING TO ~4FT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. E-NE
WIND 10-15KT CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. SEAS
BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN IN INCREASING NE FLOW, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS
LATE THU NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. N TO NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE FRIDAY. AOB 15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT.
WAVES 2 TO 3. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT CONTINUE SAT
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH 3 TO 4 FT WAVES IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 FT AND 4
TO 5 FT AT TIMES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM/SAM/LSA





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280026
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
826 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES DAMPENING/ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS TAKEN ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BACK INTO THE MID-MISS VALLEY. AT THE
SFC, LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A SFC COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
IN BACKDOOR FASHION ACROSS THE WATERS/COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS
AFTN...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ECG TO PTB TO JUST NORTH OF FVX
AT 20Z. 30+ DEG F SPREAD IN TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITH READINGS TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO LOW
60S OVER THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK...WITH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE,
PRE- FRONTAL SW FLOW IS ALLOWING TEMPS BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

WHILE SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN THE COOL SECTOR, WE`RE NOTING
SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FIRE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST FROM
E KY/W VA COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW UPSTREAM. HAVE
REORGANIZED POP A BIT TO DEPICT AN INCREASE IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY ON THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MSAS/SPC ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT NOW THRU
THE EARLY AFTN, AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 750-1000
J/KG, CENTERED ACROSS THE SAME SRN THIRD OF THE AREA. 12Z
SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD SOME DRY AIR PRESENT IN LLVLS, WITH A
DISCERNIBLE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPC DOES CONTINUE MARGINAL RISK OVER
THESE SRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE ABOVE PARAMETERS
PORTENDING TO A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL
IN STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LIKELY POP ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
EVENING, TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP POP NO LOWER
THAN 30-40% OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE LOOKING TO CROSS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS FROM UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EASTERN
SHORE/NORTHERN NECK TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z/27 MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST,
ALBEIT A BIT LATER INTO THU MORNING. DESPITE PWATS ~1.25" ACROSS
THE NORTH, PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS LIMITED...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY DROPPED POPS BACK INTO CHC
RANGE THU/THU NIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATON IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
SRN VA/NE NC ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS THU
IN THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED OVER THE WRN CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(BEGINNING FRIDAY)...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROGGED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE VICINITY OF WRN PA.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PA LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE AS THE WAVY FRONT WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES DIFFUSE.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN COOL/STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EXPECT THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL
VA TO REMAIN DRY. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS FRI AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOW/MID 50S SOUTH UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. SKY
AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO
OVERSPREAD THE PIEDMONT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AND POINTS
EWD THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
(BUT STABLE) AIR MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING
THE FRONT THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE
POPS MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WAS PRESENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF ECG AT
23Z. TSTMS WERE SCATTERED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WITH SHOWERS
REACHING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA...ALL MOVING TO THE EAST.

IFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT THE SRN THREE SITES BUT SHOULD
CONCENTRATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND INTO RICHMOND DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HAVE ECG MAINLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH A TEMPO IFR THROUGH 04Z. NE
WINDS BECOME S/SW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH VFR AFT 15Z. SBY
SHOULD ALSO BE MAINLY MVFR WHERE THE DEW POINT SPREAD HAS INCREASED
DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HAVE A FEW HOURS IN
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN IT MAY GO TO IFR. HAVE RICHMOND IFR
STARTING AT 03Z AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HIGH END IFR THURSDAY MORNING BUT WON`T
RULE OUT MVFR DURING THE DAY. ORF AND PHF APPEAR TO REMAIN IFR FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM
NEARBY BODIES OF COOL WATER.

OUTLOOK...MORE IFR CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH LATER FRIDAY WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
AFTN, PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THIS OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE BACK NORTH TO NEAR THE
VA NC BORDER THURSDAY. HAVE DROPPED SCA ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS, WITH BUOY 09 DROPPING BELOW 5 FT, AND WITH NWPS/WAVEWATCH
BOTH DEPICTING SEAS SUBSIDING TO ~4FT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. E-NE
WIND 10-15KT CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. SEAS
BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN IN INCREASING NE FLOW, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS
LATE THU NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. N TO NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE FRIDAY. AOB 15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT.
WAVES 2 TO 3. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT CONTINUE SAT
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH 3 TO 4 FT WAVES IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 FT AND 4
TO 5 FT AT TIMES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM/SAM/LSA





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280026
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
826 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES DAMPENING/ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS TAKEN ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BACK INTO THE MID-MISS VALLEY. AT THE
SFC, LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A SFC COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
IN BACKDOOR FASHION ACROSS THE WATERS/COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS
AFTN...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ECG TO PTB TO JUST NORTH OF FVX
AT 20Z. 30+ DEG F SPREAD IN TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITH READINGS TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO LOW
60S OVER THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK...WITH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE,
PRE- FRONTAL SW FLOW IS ALLOWING TEMPS BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

WHILE SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN THE COOL SECTOR, WE`RE NOTING
SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FIRE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST FROM
E KY/W VA COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW UPSTREAM. HAVE
REORGANIZED POP A BIT TO DEPICT AN INCREASE IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY ON THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MSAS/SPC ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT NOW THRU
THE EARLY AFTN, AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 750-1000
J/KG, CENTERED ACROSS THE SAME SRN THIRD OF THE AREA. 12Z
SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD SOME DRY AIR PRESENT IN LLVLS, WITH A
DISCERNIBLE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPC DOES CONTINUE MARGINAL RISK OVER
THESE SRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE ABOVE PARAMETERS
PORTENDING TO A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL
IN STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LIKELY POP ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
EVENING, TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP POP NO LOWER
THAN 30-40% OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE LOOKING TO CROSS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS FROM UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EASTERN
SHORE/NORTHERN NECK TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z/27 MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST,
ALBEIT A BIT LATER INTO THU MORNING. DESPITE PWATS ~1.25" ACROSS
THE NORTH, PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS LIMITED...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY DROPPED POPS BACK INTO CHC
RANGE THU/THU NIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATON IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
SRN VA/NE NC ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS THU
IN THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED OVER THE WRN CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(BEGINNING FRIDAY)...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROGGED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE VICINITY OF WRN PA.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PA LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE AS THE WAVY FRONT WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES DIFFUSE.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN COOL/STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EXPECT THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL
VA TO REMAIN DRY. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS FRI AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOW/MID 50S SOUTH UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. SKY
AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO
OVERSPREAD THE PIEDMONT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AND POINTS
EWD THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
(BUT STABLE) AIR MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING
THE FRONT THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE
POPS MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WAS PRESENT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST SOUTH OF ECG AT
23Z. TSTMS WERE SCATTERED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WITH SHOWERS
REACHING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA...ALL MOVING TO THE EAST.

IFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT THE SRN THREE SITES BUT SHOULD
CONCENTRATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND INTO RICHMOND DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HAVE ECG MAINLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH A TEMPO IFR THROUGH 04Z. NE
WINDS BECOME S/SW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH VFR AFT 15Z. SBY
SHOULD ALSO BE MAINLY MVFR WHERE THE DEW POINT SPREAD HAS INCREASED
DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. HAVE A FEW HOURS IN
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING WHEN IT MAY GO TO IFR. HAVE RICHMOND IFR
STARTING AT 03Z AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO HIGH END IFR THURSDAY MORNING BUT WON`T
RULE OUT MVFR DURING THE DAY. ORF AND PHF APPEAR TO REMAIN IFR FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM
NEARBY BODIES OF COOL WATER.

OUTLOOK...MORE IFR CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH LATER FRIDAY WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
AFTN, PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THIS OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE BACK NORTH TO NEAR THE
VA NC BORDER THURSDAY. HAVE DROPPED SCA ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS, WITH BUOY 09 DROPPING BELOW 5 FT, AND WITH NWPS/WAVEWATCH
BOTH DEPICTING SEAS SUBSIDING TO ~4FT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. E-NE
WIND 10-15KT CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. SEAS
BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN IN INCREASING NE FLOW, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS
LATE THU NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. N TO NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE FRIDAY. AOB 15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT.
WAVES 2 TO 3. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT CONTINUE SAT
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH 3 TO 4 FT WAVES IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 FT AND 4
TO 5 FT AT TIMES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM/SAM/LSA





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES DAMPENING/ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS TAKEN ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BACK INTO THE MID-MISS VALLEY. AT THE
SFC, LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES A SFC COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH
IN BACKDOOR FASHION ACROSS THE WATERS/COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS
AFTN...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ECG TO PTB TO JUST NORTH OF FVX
AT 20Z. 30+ DEG F SPREAD IN TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITH READINGS TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO LOW
60S OVER THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK...WITH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE,
PRE- FRONTAL SW FLOW IS ALLOWING TEMPS BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

WHILE SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN THE COOL SECTOR, WE`RE NOTING
SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FIRE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST FROM
E KY/W VA COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW UPSTREAM. HAVE
REORGANIZED POP A BIT TO DEPICT AN INCREASE IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY ON THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MSAS/SPC ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT NOW THRU
THE EARLY AFTN, AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 750-1000
J/KG, CENTERED ACROSS THE SAME SRN THIRD OF THE AREA. 12Z
SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD SOME DRY AIR PRESENT IN LLVLS, WITH A
DISCERNIBLE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPC DOES CONTINUE MARGINAL RISK OVER
THESE SRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE ABOVE PARAMETERS
PORTENDING TO A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL
IN STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LIKELY POP ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
EVENING, TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP POP NO LOWER
THAN 30-40% OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE LOOKING TO CROSS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS FROM UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EASTERN
SHORE/NORTHERN NECK TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z/27 MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST,
ALBEIT A BIT LATER INTO THU MORNING. DESPITE PWATS ~1.25" ACROSS
THE NORTH, PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS LIMITED...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY DROPPED POPS BACK INTO CHC
RANGE THU/THU NIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATON IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
SRN VA/NE NC ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS THU
IN THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED OVER THE WRN CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(BEGINNING FRIDAY)...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROGGED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE VICINITY OF WRN PA.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PA LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE AS THE WAVY FRONT WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES DIFFUSE.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN COOL/STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EXPECT THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL
VA TO REMAIN DRY. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS FRI AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOW/MID 50S SOUTH UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. SKY
AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO
OVERSPREAD THE PIEDMONT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AND POINTS
EWD THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
(BUT STABLE) AIR MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING
THE FRONT THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE
POPS MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING.
REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INDICATE STRATUS
WITH CIGS 500-800FT. SBY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 500FT CEILING AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO LINGER TO ~16Z. ELSEWHERE...THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE AND LIFT LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR PCPN...AN
AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
AFTN, PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY SETTLING IN VICINITY
OF THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED SCA ACROSS THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS, WITH BUOY 09 DROPPING BELOW 5 FT, AND WITH
NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH DEPICTING SEAS SUBSIDING TO ~4FT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. E-NE WIND 10-15KT CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/JUST S OF THE
VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND
2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN IN
INCREASING NE FLOW, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA NEEDED ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS LATE THU NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. N TO NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE FRIDAY. AOB 15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT.
WAVES 2 TO 3. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT CONTINUE SAT
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH 3 TO 4 FT WAVES IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 FT AND 4
TO 5 FT AT TIMES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MAM/SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MID-AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES DAMPENING, ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS TAKEN ON A NEGATIVE TILT, AND EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BACK INTO THE MID-MISS VALLEY. LATEST WX
ANALYSIS FEATURES A SFC COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH IN BACKDOOR
FASHION ACROSS THE WATERS/COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTN...ROUGHLY ALONG
A LINE FROM ECG TO PTB TO JUST NORTH OF FVX AT 19Z. 30+ DEG F
SPREAD IN TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITH READINGS TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK...WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE, PRE-FRONTAL SW
FLOW IS ALLOWING TEMPS BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.

WHILE SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN THE COOL SECTOR, WE`RE NOTING
SOME SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FIRE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST FROM
E KY/W VA COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW UPSTREAM. HAVE
REORGANIZED POP A BIT TO DEPICT AN INCREASE IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY ON THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. MSAS/SPC ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT NOW THRU
THE EARLY AFTN, AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 750-1000
J/KG, CENTERED ACROSS THE SAME SRN THIRD OF THE AREA. 12Z
SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD SOME DRY AIR PRESENT IN LLVLS, WITH A
DISCERNIBLE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPC DOES CONTINUE MARGINAL RISK OVER
THESE SRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE ABOVE PARAMETERS
PORTENDING TO A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL
IN STRONGER STORMS. HAVE LIKELY POP ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
EVENING, TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP POP NO LOWER
THAN 30-40% OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE LOOKING TO CROSS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS FROM UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EASTERN
SHORE/NORTHERN NECK TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THU NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z/27 MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NEXT DISTURBANCE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST,
ALBEIT A BIT LATER INTO THU MORNING. DESPITE PWATS ~1.25" ACROSS
THE NORTH, PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS LIMITED...AND HAVE ACCORDINGLY DROPPED POPS BACK INTO CHC
RANGE THU/THU NIGHT. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATON IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
SRN VA/NE NC ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHS THU
IN THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED OVER THE WRN CONUS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(BEGINNING FRIDAY)...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROGGED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AS THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE VICINITY OF WRN PA.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PA LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE AS THE WAVY FRONT WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES DIFFUSE.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN COOL/STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
LOCAL AREA...BUT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EXPECT THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL
VA TO REMAIN DRY. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NRN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
HAVE TRIMMED BACK CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS FRI AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOW/MID 50S SOUTH UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. SKY
AVERAGES PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO
OVERSPREAD THE PIEDMONT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AND POINTS
EWD THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
(BUT STABLE) AIR MASS. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH PUSHING
THE FRONT THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE LINGERED CHANCE
POPS MONDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE NE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS OVER HOW THE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. POPS RANGE FROM SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SUN TO WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING.
REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INDICATE STRATUS
WITH CIGS 500-800FT. SBY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 500FT CEILING AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO LINGER TO ~16Z. ELSEWHERE...THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE AND LIFT LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR PCPN...AN
AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
AFTN, PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY SETTLING IN VICINITY
OF THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED SCA ACROSS THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS, WITH BUOY 09 DROPPING BELOW 5 FT, AND WITH
NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH DEPICTING SEAS SUBSIDING TO ~4FT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. E-NE WIND 10-15KT CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/JUST S OF THE
VA/NC BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND
2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN IN
INCREASING NE FLOW, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA NEEDED ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS LATE THU NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS FRIDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE NORTH. N TO NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE FRIDAY. AOB 15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT.
WAVES 2 TO 3. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT CONTINUE SAT
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH 3 TO 4 FT WAVES IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 FT AND 4
TO 5 FT AT TIMES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM/SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING...
THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ADVANCES SWD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN NECK
AS OF 645 AM. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MORNING POPS TO ADJUST FOR
LINGERING PRECIP INVOF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. QPF AMTS ARE AROUND 0.02 INCHES AS PRECIP STARTS TO
DIMINISH. STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION KICK OFF IN CNTRL DE HOWEVER
IF THE LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...IT SHOULD
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC COLD FRONT GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN MD BORDER WITH
VA...INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE. WARM SECTOR TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S WITH A QUICK SURGE OF NE-E WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THE
DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
TRICKY TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST THE REST OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VA THIS MORNING...THEN STALLS OUT NEAR THE NC
BORDER THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 60S NE TO MID 70S
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SRN
VA/NE NC.

PRECIPITATION GENERATION INVOF THE FRONT CONTINUES WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TO NOW NONE. PRECIP TRENDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH A
DECREASING TREND ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE THE
MOIST AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVELY DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTN
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE END RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING SHOWERS FOR INLAND VA AND ALL OF NE NC WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT...SCNTRL VA...AND NE NC
WEST OF CURRITUCK SOUND. DECENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN TUESDAY WITH VALUES AVERAGING CLOSER TO
40KT TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN
SOUNDING PROFILES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT. SPC HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT INTO THU. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE
ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64...LOWER 60S VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC. HIGHS THU IN
THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND A WEDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTN
INTO TONIGHT. A NE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE 15-20KT IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGER NE WIND
WILL RESULT IN 4-5FT SEAS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT BY LATE AFTN. THE CURRENT SCA
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
AN E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PUSH SEAS TO ~5FT IN NE FLOW...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN PREVAILS SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING...
THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ADVANCES SWD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN NECK
AS OF 645 AM. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MORNING POPS TO ADJUST FOR
LINGERING PRECIP INVOF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. QPF AMTS ARE AROUND 0.02 INCHES AS PRECIP STARTS TO
DIMINISH. STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION KICK OFF IN CNTRL DE HOWEVER
IF THE LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...IT SHOULD
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC COLD FRONT GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN MD BORDER WITH
VA...INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE. WARM SECTOR TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S WITH A QUICK SURGE OF NE-E WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THE
DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
TRICKY TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST THE REST OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VA THIS MORNING...THEN STALLS OUT NEAR THE NC
BORDER THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 60S NE TO MID 70S
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SRN
VA/NE NC.

PRECIPITATION GENERATION INVOF THE FRONT CONTINUES WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TO NOW NONE. PRECIP TRENDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH A
DECREASING TREND ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE THE
MOIST AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVELY DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTN
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE END RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING SHOWERS FOR INLAND VA AND ALL OF NE NC WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT...SCNTRL VA...AND NE NC
WEST OF CURRITUCK SOUND. DECENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN TUESDAY WITH VALUES AVERAGING CLOSER TO
40KT TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN
SOUNDING PROFILES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT. SPC HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT INTO THU. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE
ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64...LOWER 60S VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC. HIGHS THU IN
THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND A WEDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTN
INTO TONIGHT. A NE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE 15-20KT IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGER NE WIND
WILL RESULT IN 4-5FT SEAS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT BY LATE AFTN. THE CURRENT SCA
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
AN E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PUSH SEAS TO ~5FT IN NE FLOW...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN PREVAILS SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271438
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1038 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING...
THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ADVANCES SWD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN NECK
AS OF 645 AM. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MORNING POPS TO ADJUST FOR
LINGERING PRECIP INVOF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. QPF AMTS ARE AROUND 0.02 INCHES AS PRECIP STARTS TO
DIMINISH. STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION KICK OFF IN CNTRL DE HOWEVER
IF THE LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...IT SHOULD
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC COLD FRONT GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN MD BORDER WITH
VA...INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE. WARM SECTOR TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S WITH A QUICK SURGE OF NE-E WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THE
DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
TRICKY TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST THE REST OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VA THIS MORNING...THEN STALLS OUT NEAR THE NC
BORDER THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 60S NE TO MID 70S
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SRN
VA/NE NC.

PRECIPITATION GENERATION INVOF THE FRONT CONTINUES WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TO NOW NONE. PRECIP TRENDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH A
DECREASING TREND ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE THE
MOIST AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVELY DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTN
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE END RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING SHOWERS FOR INLAND VA AND ALL OF NE NC WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT...SCNTRL VA...AND NE NC
WEST OF CURRITUCK SOUND. DECENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN TUESDAY WITH VALUES AVERAGING CLOSER TO
40KT TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN
SOUNDING PROFILES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT. SPC HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT INTO THU. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE
ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64...LOWER 60S VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC. HIGHS THU IN
THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING.
REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INDICATE STRATUS
WITH CIGS 500-800FT. SBY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 500FT CEILING AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO LINGER TO ~16Z. ELSEWHERE...THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE AND LIFT LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR PCPN...AN
AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTN
INTO TONIGHT. A NE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE 15-20KT IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGER NE WIND
WILL RESULT IN 4-5FT SEAS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT BY LATE AFTN. THE CURRENT SCA
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
AN E-NE WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PUSH SEAS TO ~5FT IN NE FLOW...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN PREVAILS SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271114
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING...
THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ADVANCES SWD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN NECK
AS OF 645 AM. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MORNING POPS TO ADJUST FOR
LINGERING PRECIP INVOF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. QPF AMTS ARE AROUND 0.02 INCHES AS PRECIP STARTS TO
DIMINISH. STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION KICK OFF IN CNTRL DE HOWEVER
IF THE LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...IT SHOULD
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC COLD FRONT GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN MD BORDER WITH
VA...INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE. WARM SECTOR TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S WITH A QUICK SURGE OF NE-E WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THE
DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
TRICKY TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST THE REST OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VA THIS MORNING...THEN STALLS OUT NEAR THE NC
BORDER THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 60S NE TO MID 70S
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SRN
VA/NE NC.

PRECIPITATION GENERATION INVOF THE FRONT CONTINUES WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TO NOW NONE. PRECIP TRENDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH A
DECREASING TREND ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE THE
MOIST AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVELY DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTN
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE END RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING SHOWERS FOR INLAND VA AND ALL OF NE NC WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT...SCNTRL VA...AND NE NC
WEST OF CURRITUCK SOUND. DECENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN TUESDAY WITH VALUES AVERAGING CLOSER TO
40KT TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN
SOUNDING PROFILES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT. SPC HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT INTO THU. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE
ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64...LOWER 60S VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC. HIGHS THU IN
THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING.
REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INDICATE STRATUS
WITH CIGS 500-800FT. SBY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 500FT CEILING AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO LINGER TO ~16Z. ELSEWHERE...THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE AND LIFT LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR PCPN...AN
AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTN
INTO TONIGHT. A NE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE 15-20KT IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGER NE WIND
WILL RESULT IN 4-5FT SEAS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT BY AFTN. THE CURRENT SCA WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN E-NE
WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SEAS
TO ~5FT IN NE FLOW...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN PREVAILS SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271114
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING...
THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ADVANCES SWD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN NECK
AS OF 645 AM. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MORNING POPS TO ADJUST FOR
LINGERING PRECIP INVOF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. QPF AMTS ARE AROUND 0.02 INCHES AS PRECIP STARTS TO
DIMINISH. STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION KICK OFF IN CNTRL DE HOWEVER
IF THE LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...IT SHOULD
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC COLD FRONT GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN MD BORDER WITH
VA...INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE. WARM SECTOR TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S WITH A QUICK SURGE OF NE-E WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THE
DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
TRICKY TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST THE REST OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VA THIS MORNING...THEN STALLS OUT NEAR THE NC
BORDER THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 60S NE TO MID 70S
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SRN
VA/NE NC.

PRECIPITATION GENERATION INVOF THE FRONT CONTINUES WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TO NOW NONE. PRECIP TRENDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH A
DECREASING TREND ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE THE
MOIST AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVELY DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTN
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE END RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING SHOWERS FOR INLAND VA AND ALL OF NE NC WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT...SCNTRL VA...AND NE NC
WEST OF CURRITUCK SOUND. DECENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN TUESDAY WITH VALUES AVERAGING CLOSER TO
40KT TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN
SOUNDING PROFILES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT. SPC HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT INTO THU. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE
ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64...LOWER 60S VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC. HIGHS THU IN
THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING.
REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INDICATE STRATUS
WITH CIGS 500-800FT. SBY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 500FT CEILING AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO LINGER TO ~16Z. ELSEWHERE...THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE AND LIFT LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR PCPN...AN
AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTN
INTO TONIGHT. A NE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE 15-20KT IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGER NE WIND
WILL RESULT IN 4-5FT SEAS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT BY AFTN. THE CURRENT SCA WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN E-NE
WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SEAS
TO ~5FT IN NE FLOW...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN PREVAILS SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
654 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING...
THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY
ADVANCES SWD THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN NECK
AS OF 645 AM. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MORNING POPS TO ADJUST FOR
LINGERING PRECIP INVOF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER MD LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. QPF AMTS ARE AROUND 0.02 INCHES AS PRECIP STARTS TO
DIMINISH. STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION KICK OFF IN CNTRL DE HOWEVER
IF THE LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING...IT SHOULD
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC COLD FRONT GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN MD BORDER WITH
VA...INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE. WARM SECTOR TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S WITH A QUICK SURGE OF NE-E WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THE
DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
TRICKY TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST THE REST OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VA THIS MORNING...THEN STALLS OUT NEAR THE NC
BORDER THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 60S NE TO MID 70S
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SRN
VA/NE NC.

PRECIPITATION GENERATION INVOF THE FRONT CONTINUES WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TO NOW NONE. PRECIP TRENDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH A
DECREASING TREND ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE THE
MOIST AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVELY DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTN
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE END RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING SHOWERS FOR INLAND VA AND ALL OF NE NC WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT...SCNTRL VA...AND NE NC
WEST OF CURRITUCK SOUND. DECENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN TUESDAY WITH VALUES AVERAGING CLOSER TO
40KT TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN
SOUNDING PROFILES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT. SPC HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT INTO THU. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE
ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64...LOWER 60S VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC. HIGHS THU IN
THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE
AS OF 06Z. REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SRN
NJ INTO DE INDICATE STRATUS WITH CIGS ~500FT. SBY NOW HAS A BKN
LAYER AT 500FT...AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE
THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY DROP
SWD...WITH THE WIND SHIFT (TO NE) NOT ARRIVING AT RIC UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z...14-16Z FOR PHF/ORF...AND NOT REACHING ECG UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTN. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS FOR PCPN...AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS
THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE
VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD
FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTN
INTO TONIGHT. A NE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE 15-20KT IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGER NE WIND
WILL RESULT IN 4-5FT SEAS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT BY AFTN. THE CURRENT SCA WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN E-NE
WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SEAS
TO ~5FT IN NE FLOW...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN PREVAILS SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
436 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING...
THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC COLD FRONT GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN MD BORDER WITH
VA...INCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE. WARM SECTOR TEMPS CURRENTLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S WITH A QUICK SURGE OF NE-E WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THE
DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
TRICKY TEMP/DEWPOINT FORECAST THE REST OF TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VA THIS MORNING...THEN STALLS OUT NEAR THE NC
BORDER THIS AFTN. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE 60S NE TO MID 70S
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
SRN VA/NE NC.

PRECIPITATION GENERATION INVOF THE FRONT CONTINUES WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE FLARE UPS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. TRENDS
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TO NOW NONE. PRECIP TRENDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH A
DECREASING TREND ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR STARTS TO INFILTRATE THE
MOIST AIRMASS AND EFFECTIVELY DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT ROUND OF UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY THIS AFTN
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE END RESULT WILL BE
INCREASING SHOWERS FOR INLAND VA AND ALL OF NE NC WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT...SCNTRL VA...AND NE NC
WEST OF CURRITUCK SOUND. DECENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN TUESDAY WITH VALUES AVERAGING CLOSER TO
40KT TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT IN
SOUNDING PROFILES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT. SPC HAS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT REMAINS STALLED INVOF VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT INTO THU. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RE-DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE
ACROSS SRN VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF
SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. PRIMARY THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64...LOWER 60S VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC. HIGHS THU IN
THE 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. PRECIPITATION STARTS TO WANE THU NIGHT AS OVERALL PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE COAST
WITH A FINAL WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW. THIS SECOND WAVE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI AFTN
DURING PEAK HEATING. AFTER WHICH...DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THERE IS VERY LIMITED FORCING/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY
FRI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DURING FRI
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING SHOULD BE DIFFICULT WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS PULLING THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND
AND KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY SATURATED. LOWS THU
NIGHT IN THE 50S INTERIOR VA AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...LOWER 60S
NE NC. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S NE
TO LOWER 70S SW. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE/FAR NRN VA COUNTIES).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE
AS OF 06Z. REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SRN
NJ INTO DE INDICATE STRATUS WITH CIGS ~500FT. SBY NOW HAS A BKN
LAYER AT 500FT...AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE
THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY DROP
SWD...WITH THE WIND SHIFT (TO NE) NOT ARRIVING AT RIC UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z...14-16Z FOR PHF/ORF...AND NOT REACHING ECG UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTN. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS FOR PCPN...AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS
THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE
VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD
FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO NE. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTN
INTO TONIGHT. A NE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE 15-20KT IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15KT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGER NE WIND
WILL RESULT IN 4-5FT SEAS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT BY AFTN. THE CURRENT SCA WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN E-NE
WIND ALONG WITH 3-4FT SEAS AND 2-3FT WAVE IN THE BAY. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SEAS
TO ~5FT IN NE FLOW...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN PREVAILS SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270651
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
251 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER MD/DE...WITH THE
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR KBWI TO KGED. THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE WNW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SSW
OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
IS ONLY AROUND 20 KT AND INSTABILITY HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW
HRS W/ LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL
BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT FOR ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY JUST SOME BRIEF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH. FARTHER
SOUTH...APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING INTO NC
WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20-30% CHC ACRS FAR SRN VA. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TO AVG 60-65 F ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...COOLER ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...MID-UPPER 50S (ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES HAVE BEEN RAISED A
FEW DEGREES FROM PREV FORECAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PD WED-FRI. FNT WILL STALL OVR NC ON WED...W/ SFC
WNDS FM THE ENE N OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN COOLER CONDS.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS
CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN
SHORE) ON WED. WILL HAVE POPS 30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL
SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. HI TEMPS WED
M50S-L60S NE TO 70-80F SW.

THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES A BIT
BACK TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA BY LT WED
NGT INTO THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HAVE 50-70% POPS ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...TAPERING TO 20-40% ON N AND
NE FM WED NGT THROUGH THU MRNG. A BIT OF LWRG TO POPS DURING
THU...THOUGH STILL LARGELY 30-50%. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAKOUT INTO WARM
SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE
U40S-L50S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR
NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN
VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

REMNANT FNTL BNDRY TO RMN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NGT INTO FRI.
MDLS HAVE LIMITED FORCING FOR TO MUCH PCPN BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WOULD BE DIFFICULT. POPS 30-50%
THU NGT...20-40% FRI. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U40S-L50S ON THE MD
ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE
AS OF 06Z. REGIONAL OBS ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SRN
NJ INTO DE INDICATE STRATUS WITH CIGS ~500FT. SBY NOW HAS A BKN
LAYER AT 500FT...AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE
THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY DROP
SWD...WITH THE WIND SHIFT (TO NE) NOT ARRIVING AT RIC UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z...14-16Z FOR PHF/ORF...AND NOT REACHING ECG UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTN. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS FOR PCPN...AN AREA OF -SHRA WILL PASS ACROSS
THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. OTHERWISE...THE TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE NC LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF THE
VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SINKING SWD
FRIDAY. THE CHC FOR -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES (ANZ650-652)
MAINLY FOR SEAS STILL AROUND 5 FT. SCA`S HAVE ENDED ELSEWHERE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW
WIND BECOMING NE (ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK OR AFTER FOR
THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE N OFF THE OUTER BANKS). THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND/SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING (WINDS SW 15-20KT/G25 KT)...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH/DURATION NOT LONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE AN
SCA ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WHICH COULD PUSH SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT OF THIS OCCURRING SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 10 AM WED. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE 3-
4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEANS
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270154
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
954 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER MD/DE...WITH THE
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR KBWI TO KGED. THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE WNW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SSW
OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
IS ONLY AROUND 20 KT AND INSTABILITY HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW
HRS W/ LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL
BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT FOR ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY JUST SOME BRIEF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH. FARTHER
SOUTH...APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING INTO NC
WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20-30% CHC ACRS FAR SRN VA. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TO AVG 60-65 F ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...COOLER ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...MID-UPPER 50S (ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES HAVE BEEN RAISED A
FEW DEGREES FROM PREV FORECAST).


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PD WED-FRI. FNT WILL STALL OVR NC ON WED...W/ SFC
WNDS FM THE ENE N OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN COOLER CONDS.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS
CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN
SHORE) ON WED. WILL HAVE POPS 30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL
SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. HI TEMPS WED
M50S-L60S NE TO 70-80F SW.

THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES A BIT
BACK TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA BY LT WED
NGT INTO THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HAVE 50-70% POPS ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...TAPERING TO 20-40% ON N AND
NE FM WED NGT THROUGH THU MRNG. A BIT OF LWRG TO POPS DURING
THU...THOUGH STILL LARGELY 30-50%. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAKOUT INTO WARM
SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE
U40S-L50S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR
NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN
VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

REMNANT FNTL BNDRY TO RMN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NGT INTO FRI.
MDLS HAVE LIMITED FORCING FOR TO MUCH PCPN BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WOULD BE DIFFICULT. POPS 30-50%
THU NGT...20-40% FRI. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U40S-L50S ON THE MD
ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KANSAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WAS BUILDING
OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TSTMS WERE OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA JUST N
OF RIC WITH SHOWERS SPREADING FARTHER TO THE WEST. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PSBL IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS MAINLY AT RIC AND SBY.

OUTLOOK...MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN MOVES INTO SRN PORTIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING AVIATION
CONDS. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IFR WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. VFR
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES (ANZ650-652)
MAINLY FOR SEAS STILL AROUND 5 FT. SCA`S HAVE ENDED ELSEWHERE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW
WIND BECOMING NE (ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK OR AFTER FOR
THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE N OFF THE OUTER BANKS). THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND/SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING (WINDS SW 15-20KT/G25 KT)...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH/DURATION NOT LONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE AN
SCA ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WHICH COULD PUSH SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT OF THIS OCCURRING SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 10 AM WED. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE 3-
4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEANS
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270154
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
954 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER MD/DE...WITH THE
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR KBWI TO KGED. THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE WNW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SSW
OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
IS ONLY AROUND 20 KT AND INSTABILITY HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW
HRS W/ LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WILL
BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA ALONG THE
FRONT...EXPECT ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT FOR ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY JUST SOME BRIEF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH. FARTHER
SOUTH...APPEARS THAT PRECIP WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING INTO NC
WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20-30% CHC ACRS FAR SRN VA. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS TO AVG 60-65 F ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...COOLER ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...MID-UPPER 50S (ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES HAVE BEEN RAISED A
FEW DEGREES FROM PREV FORECAST).


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PD WED-FRI. FNT WILL STALL OVR NC ON WED...W/ SFC
WNDS FM THE ENE N OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN COOLER CONDS.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS
CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN
SHORE) ON WED. WILL HAVE POPS 30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL
SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. HI TEMPS WED
M50S-L60S NE TO 70-80F SW.

THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES A BIT
BACK TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA BY LT WED
NGT INTO THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HAVE 50-70% POPS ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...TAPERING TO 20-40% ON N AND
NE FM WED NGT THROUGH THU MRNG. A BIT OF LWRG TO POPS DURING
THU...THOUGH STILL LARGELY 30-50%. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAKOUT INTO WARM
SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE
U40S-L50S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR
NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN
VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

REMNANT FNTL BNDRY TO RMN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NGT INTO FRI.
MDLS HAVE LIMITED FORCING FOR TO MUCH PCPN BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WOULD BE DIFFICULT. POPS 30-50%
THU NGT...20-40% FRI. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U40S-L50S ON THE MD
ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KANSAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WAS BUILDING
OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TSTMS WERE OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA JUST N
OF RIC WITH SHOWERS SPREADING FARTHER TO THE WEST. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PSBL IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS MAINLY AT RIC AND SBY.

OUTLOOK...MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN MOVES INTO SRN PORTIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING AVIATION
CONDS. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IFR WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. VFR
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES (ANZ650-652)
MAINLY FOR SEAS STILL AROUND 5 FT. SCA`S HAVE ENDED ELSEWHERE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW
WIND BECOMING NE (ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK OR AFTER FOR
THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE N OFF THE OUTER BANKS). THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND/SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING (WINDS SW 15-20KT/G25 KT)...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH/DURATION NOT LONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE AN
SCA ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WHICH COULD PUSH SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT OF THIS OCCURRING SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 10 AM WED. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE 3-
4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEANS
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
853 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDS THIS AFTN W/ GUSTY SW WNDS TO 20-30
MPH. THIS WX CONTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS. INITIAL WK SFC
TROUGH WILL LINGER INVOF NNW LOCATIONS IN FA INTO THIS EVE.
MEANWHILE...SFC CDFNT WHICH WAS ALIGNED TO OUR N FM PA-IN WILL BE
CONTG TO SETTLE SLOLY S. LIMITED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/ EITHER
OF THOSE FEATURES ATTM. SHRAS/TSTMS XPCD TO DEVELOP IN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AMS OVR NRN MDATLC LT THIS AFTN THEN SLOLY PROGRESS SSE
THIS EVE. 0-6KM SHEAR RMNS QUITE WK ATTM...NOT XPCD TO STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANT AS ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF GUSTY
WNDS/HAIL/HEAVY DOWNPOURS FM TSTMS IN HWO. HIGHEST POPS THIS EVE
RMN ALG-N OF A FVX-RIC-WAL LINE THROUGH 00-01Z/26. CONSIDERABLE
CLDNS AND WANING CONVECTION OVRNGT (AFT MDNGT) AS FNT CONTS ITS
PUSH S THROUGH FA (REACHING SRN VA LT). LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M60S IN SRN VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PD WED-FRI. FNT WILL STALL OVR NC ON WED...W/ SFC
WNDS FM THE ENE N OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN COOLER CONDS.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS
CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN
SHORE) ON WED. WILL HAVE POPS 30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL
SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. HI TEMPS WED
M50S-L60S NE TO 70-80F SW.

THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES A BIT
BACK TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA BY LT WED
NGT INTO THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HAVE 50-70% POPS ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...TAPERING TO 20-40% ON N AND
NE FM WED NGT THROUGH THU MRNG. A BIT OF LWRG TO POPS DURING
THU...THOUGH STILL LARGELY 30-50%. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAKOUT INTO WARM
SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE
U40S-L50S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR
NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN
VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

REMNANT FNTL BNDRY TO RMN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NGT INTO FRI.
MDLS HAVE LIMITED FORCING FOR TO MUCH PCPN BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WOULD BE DIFFICULT. POPS 30-50%
THU NGT...20-40% FRI. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U40S-L50S ON THE MD
ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN INDIANA TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KANSAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WAS BUILDING
OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TSTMS WERE OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA JUST N
OF RIC WITH SHOWERS SPREADING FARTHER TO THE WEST. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PSBL IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS MAINLY AT RIC AND SBY.

OUTLOOK...MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN MOVES INTO SRN PORTIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING AVIATION
CONDS. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IFR WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. VFR
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY/EASTERN VA RIVERS THROUGH 6
PM WITH WINDS SW 15-20 KT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES (ANZ650-652) WHERE AN SCA ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW
WIND BECOMING NE (ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK OR AFTER FOR
THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE N OFF THE OUTER BANKS). THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND/SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING (WINDS SW 15-20KT/G25 KT)...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH/DURATION NOT LONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE AN
SCA ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WHICH COULD PUSH SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT OF THIS OCCURRING SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 10 AM WED. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE 3-
4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEANS
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDS THIS AFTN W/ GUSTY SW WNDS TO 20-30
MPH. THIS WX CONTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS. INITIAL WK SFC
TROUGH WILL LINGER INVOF NNW LOCATIONS IN FA INTO THIS EVE.
MEANWHILE...SFC CDFNT WHICH WAS ALIGNED TO OUR N FM PA-IN WILL BE
CONTG TO SETTLE SLOLY S. LIMITED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/ EITHER
OF THOSE FEATURES ATTM. SHRAS/TSTMS XPCD TO DEVELOP IN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AMS OVR NRN MDATLC LT THIS AFTN THEN SLOLY PROGRESS SSE
THIS EVE. 0-6KM SHEAR RMNS QUITE WK ATTM...NOT XPCD TO STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANT AS ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF GUSTY
WNDS/HAIL/HEAVY DOWNPOURS FM TSTMS IN HWO. HIGHEST POPS THIS EVE
RMN ALG-N OF A FVX-RIC-WAL LINE THROUGH 00-01Z/26. CONSIDERABLE
CLDNS AND WANING CONVECTION OVRNGT (AFT MDNGT) AS FNT CONTS ITS
PUSH S THROUGH FA (REACHING SRN VA LT). LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M60S IN SRN VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PD WED-FRI. FNT WILL STALL OVR NC ON WED...W/ SFC
WNDS FM THE ENE N OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN COOLER CONDS.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS
CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN
SHORE) ON WED. WILL HAVE POPS 30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL
SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. HI TEMPS WED
M50S-L60S NE TO 70-80F SW.

THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES A BIT
BACK TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA BY LT WED
NGT INTO THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HAVE 50-70% POPS ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...TAPERING TO 20-40% ON N AND
NE FM WED NGT THROUGH THU MRNG. A BIT OF LWRG TO POPS DURING
THU...THOUGH STILL LARGELY 30-50%. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAKOUT INTO WARM
SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE
U40S-L50S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR
NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN
VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

REMNANT FNTL BNDRY TO RMN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NGT INTO FRI.
MDLS HAVE LIMITED FORCING FOR TO MUCH PCPN BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WOULD BE DIFFICULT. POPS 30-50%
THU NGT...20-40% FRI. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U40S-L50S ON THE MD
ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z...HI PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE SE CST...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FM PA WSW THRU THE OH VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FM THE N LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS
EVENG/TNGT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC FM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT THEN
DROPS ACRS THE AREA LATER TNGT THRU WED MORNG...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS FRONT STALLS ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR DRIFTS
NWRD INTO OUR REGION WED AFTN THRU FRI...PRODUCING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVR OUR AREA. IFR/MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATER
TNGT INTO FRI. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER
WED THRU FRI...WITH AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY/EASTERN VA RIVERS THROUGH 6
PM WITH WINDS SW 15-20 KT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES (ANZ650-652) WHERE AN SCA ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW
WIND BECOMING NE (ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK OR AFTER FOR
THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE N OFF THE OUTER BANKS). THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND/SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING (WINDS SW 15-20KT/G25 KT)...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH/DURATION NOT LONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE AN
SCA ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WHICH COULD PUSH SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT OF THIS OCCURRING SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 10 AM WED. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE 3-
4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEANS
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDS THIS AFTN W/ GUSTY SW WNDS TO 20-30
MPH. THIS WX CONTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS. INITIAL WK SFC
TROUGH WILL LINGER INVOF NNW LOCATIONS IN FA INTO THIS EVE.
MEANWHILE...SFC CDFNT WHICH WAS ALIGNED TO OUR N FM PA-IN WILL BE
CONTG TO SETTLE SLOLY S. LIMITED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/ EITHER
OF THOSE FEATURES ATTM. SHRAS/TSTMS XPCD TO DEVELOP IN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AMS OVR NRN MDATLC LT THIS AFTN THEN SLOLY PROGRESS SSE
THIS EVE. 0-6KM SHEAR RMNS QUITE WK ATTM...NOT XPCD TO STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANT AS ANY CONVECTION ARRIVES. WILL KEEP MENTION OF GUSTY
WNDS/HAIL/HEAVY DOWNPOURS FM TSTMS IN HWO. HIGHEST POPS THIS EVE
RMN ALG-N OF A FVX-RIC-WAL LINE THROUGH 00-01Z/26. CONSIDERABLE
CLDNS AND WANING CONVECTION OVRNGT (AFT MDNGT) AS FNT CONTS ITS
PUSH S THROUGH FA (REACHING SRN VA LT). LO TEMPS TNGT IN THE
L-M50S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE M60S IN SRN VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PD WED-FRI. FNT WILL STALL OVR NC ON WED...W/ SFC
WNDS FM THE ENE N OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN COOLER CONDS.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS
CONSIDERABLE CLDNS AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN
SHORE) ON WED. WILL HAVE POPS 30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL
SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE AND 10% NE ON WED. HI TEMPS WED
M50S-L60S NE TO 70-80F SW.

THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES A BIT
BACK TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA BY LT WED
NGT INTO THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...WILL
HAVE 50-70% POPS ACRS SRN VA/NE NC...TAPERING TO 20-40% ON N AND
NE FM WED NGT THROUGH THU MRNG. A BIT OF LWRG TO POPS DURING
THU...THOUGH STILL LARGELY 30-50%. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD BREAKOUT INTO WARM
SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE
U40S-L50S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR
NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN
VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

REMNANT FNTL BNDRY TO RMN INVOF SRN VA/NE NC THU NGT INTO FRI.
MDLS HAVE LIMITED FORCING FOR TO MUCH PCPN BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WOULD BE DIFFICULT. POPS 30-50%
THU NGT...20-40% FRI. LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U40S-L50S ON THE MD
ERN SHORE...TO THE U50S IN SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO L-M70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS. DRY WX MAKES A BRIEF RETURN SATURDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z...HI PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE SE CST...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FM PA WSW THRU THE OH VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FM THE N LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS
EVENG/TNGT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC FM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT THEN
DROPS ACRS THE AREA LATER TNGT THRU WED MORNG...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS FRONT STALLS ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR DRIFTS
NWRD INTO OUR REGION WED AFTN THRU FRI...PRODUCING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVR OUR AREA. IFR/MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATER
TNGT INTO FRI. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER
WED THRU FRI...WITH AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY/EASTERN VA RIVERS THROUGH 6
PM WITH WINDS SW 15-20 KT. SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FT ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES (ANZ650-652) WHERE AN SCA ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW
WIND BECOMING NE (ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL DAYBREAK OR AFTER FOR
THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE N OFF THE OUTER BANKS). THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND/SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING (WINDS SW 15-20KT/G25 KT)...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH/DURATION NOT LONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE AN
SCA ATTM. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WHICH COULD PUSH SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT OF THIS OCCURRING SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 10 AM WED. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE 3-
4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEANS
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE CONUS THROUGH THIS LT THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVE. LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENG ATTM...W/ TRAILING AXIS OF
UVM AND AN AREA OF SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS STRETCHING WSW THROUGH SE
PA-NRN WV. HI RES MDLS WEAKEN THAT AREA OF PCPN AS IT CONTS TO THE
SE NEXT FEW HRS. PRIMARY CDFNT STILL FAR BACK TO THE NNW. OVR THE
FA THROUGH THIS AFTN...SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING...ESP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH FM THE NW AS GUSTY SW WNDS TO 20-30 MPH
PERSIST. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND...AND TO THE
M70S-L80S CLOSER TO THE CST. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS XPCD TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA BY MID/LT AFTN NW OF THE FA...THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD SE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. HIGHEST POPS RMN ALG-N
OF A FVX-RIC-WAL LINE THROUGH 00-01Z/26. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE GUSTY
WNDS...PSBL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (ALL HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO).
SLGT RISK FM SPC RMNS NW...W/ FA OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A WARM AND DAMP NIGHT
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
64...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NORTH.

THE FRONT REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER BY WED MORNING AND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NC BY WED AFTN. COOLING NE WINDS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE STALLING BOUNDARY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS
SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF ERN PIEDMONT AND INLAND
NE NC DURING PEAK HEATING. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE STALLING BOUNDARY LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES ON
EITHER SIDE OF IT. HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE TEMP
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S NE OF THE BOUNDARY AND IN
THE 70S SW OF IT.

THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WED NIGHT AND THEN
NUDGES BACK TO THE NORTH ON THU. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THIS OCCURS...
WITH PRECIP COVERAGE SPREADING NEWD. THERE IS A LOT OF
TIMING/COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE FLAT/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THUS
ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO WOBBLE AROUND RATHER THAN MOVE IN ANY
DEFINITIVE DIRECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER THU AFTN IN
AREAS THAT COULD BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR (FAVORING AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN SRN VA/NE NC). LOWS WED NIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. HIGHS THU SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WED WITH
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S NE TO LOW-MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY
AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVES PASSES. DRY WX RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH SOME
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGHS FRI FROM
NEAR 70 EASTERN SHORE TO 75-80 DEG INLAND. HIGHS SAT-MON FROM THE
UPPER 60S EASTERN SHORE TO 70-75 DEG INLAND. LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z...HI PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE SE CST...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FM PA WSW THRU THE OH VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FM THE N LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT INTO EARLY
THIS EVENG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS
EVENG/TNGT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHC FM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT THEN
DROPS ACRS THE AREA LATER TNGT THRU WED MORNG...PRODUCING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS FRONT STALLS ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR DRIFTS
NWRD INTO OUR REGION WED AFTN THRU FRI...PRODUCING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVR OUR AREA. IFR/MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATER
TNGT INTO FRI. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER
WED THRU FRI...WITH AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE ACRS SRN VA/NE
NC.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N. A SW
WIND OF 15-20KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ~5FT OUT NEAR 20NM N OF CAPE CHARLES. SCAS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE. THE RIVERS HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE SCA TODAY...AS THE WIND OVER THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OVER THE BAY (15-20KT). THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW WIND BECOMING NE. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD PUSH
SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE
3-4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN
OCEANS ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD
NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261508
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1108 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE CONUS THROUGH THIS LT THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVE. LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENG ATTM...W/ TRAILING AXIS OF
UVM AND AN AREA OF SHRAS/ISOLD TSTMS STRETCHING WSW THROUGH SE
PA-NRN WV. HI RES MDLS WEAKEN THAT AREA OF PCPN AS IT CONTS TO THE
SE NEXT FEW HRS. PRIMARY CDFNT STILL FAR BACK TO THE NNW. OVR THE
FA THROUGH THIS AFTN...SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING...ESP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH FM THE NW AS GUSTY SW WNDS TO 20-30 MPH
PERSIST. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S INLAND...AND TO THE
M70S-L80S CLOSER TO THE CST. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS XPCD TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA BY MID/LT AFTN NW OF THE FA...THEN
BEGIN TO SPREAD SE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE. HIGHEST POPS RMN ALG-N
OF A FVX-RIC-WAL LINE THROUGH 00-01Z/26. ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE GUSTY
WNDS...PSBL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (ALL HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO).
SLGT RISK FM SPC RMNS NW...W/ FA OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A WARM AND DAMP NIGHT
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
64...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NORTH.

THE FRONT REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER BY WED MORNING AND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NC BY WED AFTN. COOLING NE WINDS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE STALLING BOUNDARY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS
SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF ERN PIEDMONT AND INLAND
NE NC DURING PEAK HEATING. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE STALLING BOUNDARY LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES ON
EITHER SIDE OF IT. HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE TEMP
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S NE OF THE BOUNDARY AND IN
THE 70S SW OF IT.

THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WED NIGHT AND THEN
NUDGES BACK TO THE NORTH ON THU. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THIS OCCURS...
WITH PRECIP COVERAGE SPREADING NEWD. THERE IS A LOT OF
TIMING/COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE FLAT/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THUS
ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO WOBBLE AROUND RATHER THAN MOVE IN ANY
DEFINITIVE DIRECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER THU AFTN IN
AREAS THAT COULD BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR (FAVORING AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN SRN VA/NE NC). LOWS WED NIGHT
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. HIGHS THU SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WED WITH
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S NE TO LOW-MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY
AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVES PASSES. DRY WX RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH SOME
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGHS FRI FROM
NEAR 70 EASTERN SHORE TO 75-80 DEG INLAND. HIGHS SAT-MON FROM THE
UPPER 60S EASTERN SHORE TO 70-75 DEG INLAND. LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EWD
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE N
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SW WIND WILL AVERAGE 8-12KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS OF 6-8KFT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHC FROM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO
NE. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IFR/MVFR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN VA/NE
NC. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N. A SW
WIND OF 15-20KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ~5FT OUT NEAR 20NM N OF CAPE CHARLES. SCAS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE. THE RIVERS HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE SCA TODAY...AS THE WIND OVER THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OVER THE BAY (15-20KT). THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW WIND BECOMING NE. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD PUSH
SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE
3-4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN
OCEANS ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD
NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
644 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TONIGHT...THEN
STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY INTO PA. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY...CAUSING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY
SW WINDS OF 25-30 MPH BY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTN AS A
RESULT. MEANWHILE...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING IS BEING PUSHED IN AN ESE DIRECTION BY A 60KT JET
STREAK ROUNDING A WEAK VORT MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING LAKE HURON.
ALTHOUGH PRIMARY STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS WLY ATTM...THE VORT MAX
WILL CREATE JUST ENOUGH OF A DIP IN H7 AND H5 HEIGHTS FOR THE
STEERING FLOW TO BECOME WNW...WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIVE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY. DO EXPECT
ONGOING CONVECTION TO DWINDLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS
THE JET STREAK BECOMES FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE OUTFLOW AND AS
NOCTURNAL JET DYNAMICS DIMINISH. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AS THE
BOUNDARY BECOMES A COLD FRONT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS AFTER 200 PM TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
START IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THE FRONT
FINALLY DIPS SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND SW DOWNSLOPE DRYING
EFFECTS DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. THE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES ANTICIPATED NE OF RICHMOND METRO/INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR
INTO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER
OF 30KT (40KT AT BEST)...HOWEVER THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
PRESENT WITHIN SOUNDING PROFILES TO SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITHIN
STRONGER STORM CORES. IN ADDITION... THERE IS AMPLE LIFT PRESENT
THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT...AND THIS
BOUNDARY ALREADY HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 1.00-1.75 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL ACROSS IL/MI. WILL MENTION GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL SW WINDS
AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS IN HWO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO WANE LATE THIS EVENING...BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A
WARM AND DAMP NIGHT AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER BY WED MORNING AND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NC BY WED AFTN. COOLING NE WINDS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE STALLING BOUNDARY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS
SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF ERN PIEDMONT AND INLAND
NE NC DURING PEAK HEATING. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE STALLING BOUNDARY LOCATION AND TEMPERATURES ON
EITHER SIDE OF IT. HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED A PERSISTENCE TEMP
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S NE OF THE BOUNDARY AND IN
THE 70S SW OF IT.

THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WED NIGHT AND THEN
NUDGES BACK TO THE NORTH ON THU. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THIS OCCURS...
WITH PRECIP COVERAGE SPREADING NEWD. THERE IS A LOT OF
TIMING/COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE FLAT/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THUS
ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO WOBBLE AROUND RATHER THAN MOVE IN ANY
DEFINITIVE DIRECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER THU AFTN IN
AREAS THAT COULD BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR (FAVORING AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN SRN VA/NE NC). LOWS WED/THU NIGHTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. HIGHS THU SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WED WITH
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S NE TO LOW-MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY
AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVES PASSES. DRY WX RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH SOME
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGHS FRI FROM
NEAR 70 EASTERN SHORE TO 75-80 DEG INLAND. HIGHS SAT-MON FROM THE
UPPER 60S EASTERN SHORE TO 70-75 DEG INLAND. LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EWD
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE N
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SW WIND WILL AVERAGE 8-12KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS OF 6-8KFT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHC FROM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO
NE. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IFR/MVFR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN VA/NE
NC. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N. A SW
WIND OF 15-20KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ~5FT OUT NEAR 20NM N OF CAPE CHARLES. SCAS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE. THE RIVERS HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE SCA TODAY...AS THE WIND OVER THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OVER THE BAY (15-20KT). THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW WIND BECOMING NE. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD PUSH
SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE
3-4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN
OCEANS ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260823
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
423 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TONIGHT...THEN
STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT...
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY INTO PA. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TWD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY...CAUSING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY
SW WINDS OF 25-30 MPH BY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTN AS A
RESULT. MEANWHILE...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MOST
OF TODAY DUE TO WLY/ZONAL STEERING FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS RIDING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AS THE
BOUNDARY BECOMES A COLD FRONT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER REACHING THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS AFTER 200 PM TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
START IMPACTING THE AREA UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THE FRONT
FINALLY DIPS SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ANTICIPATED
ALONG AND NE OF I-95/I-64 JCTN INTO THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN
SHORE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT AT BEST...
HOWEVER THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR PRESENT WITHIN SOUNDING
PROFILES TO SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORM CORES.
IN ADDITION... THERE IS AMPLE LIFT PRESENT THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT...AND THIS BOUNDARY ALREADY HAS A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING 1.00-1.75 INCH DIAMETER HAIL ACROSS IL/MI.
WILL MENTION GUSTY PRE- FRONTAL WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS IN
HWO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATE IN THE
EVENING...BECOMING RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A WARM AND DAMP NIGHT
AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64...
AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER BY WED MORNING AND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NC BY WED AFTN. COOLING NE WINDS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE STALLING BOUNDARY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS
SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SWRN COUNTIES OF ERN PIEDMONT AND INLAND
NE NC DURING PEAK HEATING. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE STALLING BOUNDARY LOCATION AND IN TURN ON
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED A
PERSISTENCE TEMP FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S NE OF THE BOUNDARY
AND IN THE 70S SW OF IT.

THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA WED NIGHT AND THEN
NUDGES BACK TO THE NORTH ON THU. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THIS OCCURS...
WITH PRECIP COVERAGE SPREADING NEWD. THERE IS A LOT OF
TIMING/COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE FLAT/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THUS
ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO WOBBLE AROUND RATHER THAN MOVE IN A
DEFINITIVE DIRECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER THU AFTN IN
AREAS THAT COULD BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN SRN VA/NE NC). LOWS WED/THU
NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. HIGHS THU SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WED
WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 60S NE TO LOW-MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY
AS A TRAILING UPPER WAVES PASSES. DRY WX RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH SOME
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGHS FRI FROM
NEAR 70 EASTERN SHORE TO 75-80 DEG INLAND. HIGHS SAT-MON FROM THE
UPPER 60S EASTERN SHORE TO 70-75 DEG INLAND. LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EWD
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE N
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SW WIND WILL AVERAGE 8-12KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS OF 6-8KFT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHC FROM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO
NE. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IFR/MVFR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN VA/NE
NC. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE N. A SW
WIND OF 15-20KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO ~5FT OUT NEAR 20NM N OF CAPE CHARLES. SCAS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE. THE RIVERS HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE SCA TODAY...AS THE WIND OVER THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OVER THE BAY (15-20KT). THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA...WITH A SW WIND BECOMING NE. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF NE SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD PUSH
SEAS TO 5FT FOR THE NRN OCEAN ZONES. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NE
FLOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND STRONGEST N. SEAS AVERAGE
3-4FT...WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE NE FLOW STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 5FT ACROSS THE NRN
OCEANS ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY PRODUCING TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 0.5 TO
NEAR 1.0 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST GENLY
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH WATER LEVELS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL SHY OF
MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THE UPCOMING EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...ALB/BMD
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN STALLS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVES EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1000 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ESE
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA. FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY.
ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT....EARLIER MID/HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE GENLY SCATTERED OUT LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AVERAGES 5-10 MPH AND
WITH MIXING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
AVG TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM 60-65 F FOR MOST...A FEW UPPER
50S ON THE ERN SHORE. WHILE THE WEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WNW OVERNIGHT...STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO TAKE ON
ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO BRING SHOWERS/TSTMS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE AKQ CWA...IF IT WERE TO OCCUR...WOULD BE THE MD ERN
SHORE BUT STILL KEEPING POPS AT OR BELOW 10%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE CST THROUGH TUE...RESULTING IN CONTG
LO LVL FLO FM THE SSW (GUSTY AGN DURING MIDDAY/AFTN HRS). NR ZONAL
FLO ALOFT TUE-TUE NGT SLOWING PUSH S OF CDFNT FM THE N. WIDESPREAD
CLDS AND AN AREA OF SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS WILL BE NR THE FNT AS IT
APPROACHES FM THE N. DOWNSLOPING SW FLO XPCD TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
RA AWAY FM THE FA UNTIL (LT) TUE AFTN. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS N-PARTLY
CLOUDY CNTRL/S TUE...W/ POPS AVGG 25-35% N AND 5-20% S TUE AFTN.
WARM TUE W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M70S-L80S ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
L-M80S NR THE BAY/OCN IN ERN/SE VA AND CSTL NE NC...M-U80S INLAND.

THE CDFNT PRESSES SLOLY S ACRS THE FA TUE NGT-WED MRNG...XPCD TO
STALL OVR NC BY WED AFTN. HIGHER PROB FOR SHRAS-MAYBE TSTMS TUE
NGT. COOLING NE WNDS ON WED W/ THE FNT JUST TO THE S OF THE FA.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT STRONGLY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE CLDNS
AND AT LEAST SCT RA (ESP INLAND FM THE ERN SHORE). WILL HAVE POPS
30-50% W AND SW (W/ MENTION OF PSBL SCT TSTMS)...20% CNTRL AND SE
AND 10% NE ON WED. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE L-M50S ON THE ERN SHORE
TO U50S-L60S ELSW. HI TEMPS WED U50S- M60S NE TO 70-80F SW.

THE FNT RMNS STALLED JUST S OF THE FA WED NGT...THEN NUDGES BACK
TO THE N ON THU. MDLS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF RA LT WED NGT INTO
THU AS FNT BEGINS TO PULL BACK N. AT THIS TIME...HAVE PUSHED POPS
UP ABT 10-15% THROUGHOUT. TIMING/COVERAGE RMNS UNCERTAIN. WILL
INCLUDE CHC TSTMS...PRIMARILY THU AFTN IN AREAS THAT COULD
BREAKOUT INTO WARM SECTOR THU AFTN (FAVORING SRN VA/NE NC). LO
TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U40S ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE ARND 60F IN
SCNTRL VA/INTERIOR NE NC. HI TEMPS THU FM THE U50S-L60S NE TO
M-U70S IN FAR SRN VA/INTERIOR NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS OVER THE AREA THUR NIGHT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY AS
A TRAILING UPPER WAVES PASSES. DRY WX RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH SOME
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGHS FRI FROM
NEAR 70 EASTERN SHORE TO 75-80 DEG INLAND. HIGHS SAT-MON FROM THE
UPPER 60S EASTERN SHORE TO 70-75 DEG INLAND. LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EWD
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE N
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SW WIND WILL AVERAGE 8-12KT
EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CIGS OF 6-8KFT. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHC FROM RIC-SBY. THE COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO
NE. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PRODUCING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IFR/MVFR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN VA/NE
NC. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE N BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS 10-15 KT BAY/RIVER/SOUND AND 15-20 KT COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FOR
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCHES CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP MORE. THIS WILL
CREATE LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS FOR CHES BAY DUE TO WINDS OF 15-
20KT...AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT DUE TO GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5FT. SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN/EVE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SWD OVER THE WATERS AND STALLS OVER/NEARBY THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. SW WINDS AOB 15KT TUESDAY
NIGHT BECOME MORE NE-E/ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS
FARTHER SOUTH. SEAS 3-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-4 FT WITH 1-2FT WAVES
IN THE BAY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE WEATHER PATTERN FINALLY STARTS
TO CHANGE ON LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH NE/ONSHORE WINDS AOB 15KT WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY PRODUCING TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 0.5 TO
NEAR 1.0 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST GENLY
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH WATER LEVELS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL SHY OF
MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH THE UPCOMING EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...BMD/JDM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





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