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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA. THAT LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COOL AFTN ACRS THE FA W/ VRB CLDS. TOUGH TO FIND EXACT COVERAGE
OF LO LVL CLDNS UNDER THE EXTENSIVE MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING
INTO THE FA FM THE SW. SFC OBS SHOWING THAT THE BULK OF THE SC
RMNS RIGHT AT THE CST.

FOR TNGT...CLDNS WILL CONT TO SPREAD NE FM THE ERN GULF STATES AS
SFC LO PRES SLOLY TRACKS ACRS N FL. WATCHING LGT RA BEGINNING TO
MOVE THROUGH FAR WRN/SCNTRL NC SO FAR THIS AFTN...AND THAT RA WILL
CONT TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVE HRS. MDLS (NAM/GFS) DIFFER ON HOW
FAR NNE THE PCPN SHIELD GETS OVRNGT. 12Z/18 ECMWF LEANS IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE GFS AS DOES CURRENT FCST. WILL BLEND ALL THREE
FOR TNGT...IN BRINGING SLGT CHC-CHC POPS N OF THE VA-NC MNLY AFT
MDNGT AND N TO ABT RIC BY LT TNGT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS AFT MDNGT
FOR PORTIONS OF NE NC. LO TEMPS MNLY FM THE L/M40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL CONT W/ A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF AND CURRENT FCST FOR PCPN
COVERAGE ON SAT INTO SUN AS LO PRES IS SLO TO MOVE OFF THE SE
CONUS CST. AFT SAT MRNG...XPCG PCPN SHIELD TO GRADUALLY SINK S
INTO SUN AS SFC HI PRES FM ERN CANADA BEGINS TO BUILD S.

GENLY KEPT AREAS N OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT BUT W/ MSTLY
CLDY CONDS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. ACRS SRN VA INTO NE NC WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHEST IN NE NC)...THOUGH TRENDING DOWN FM SAT AFTN
INTO SUN. SGFNT AMT OF CLDNS XPCD TO RMN OVR MNLY SE VA/NE NC
WELL INTO SUN...WHILE ELSW BECOMES P/MSNY. ONSHORE WNDS WILL RMN
GUSTY NR/AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M50S AT THE CST TO ARND 60F ACRS INTR SE
VA/NE NC...AND THE M60S WELL INLAND N AND NW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM
THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS
SUN FM 55 TO 60F AT THE CST TO THE M/U60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY.

SRN STREAM ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING AS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUES AFTERNOON AND
OFF THE COAST TUES EVENING. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE OH VALLEY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA...A WEAKER
LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT FOR
AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIP WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO RECOVER AS LOW LEVEL H85 FLOW INCREASES. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...LITTLE CAPE/LIFT IN THE
MIXED PHASE LAYER AND MODEST SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE TUES AFTERNOON FOR THUNDER.
REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN NWLY FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEDS SOME
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN
SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURS
NIGHT-FRI AS A WRN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST. FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
FRONT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S (TO NEAR 80 INLAND) THANKS
TO SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER WEDS-
THURS BEHIND THE FRONT (NW-W WINDS) WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE WILL WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S EXCEPT
THURS MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN ARE PERSISTING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST VA COAST REACHING BOTH PHF AND ORF. ONCE
INLAND JUST A FEW MILES THE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR. SBY...RIC AND
ECG WERE VFR AS OF 18Z AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT ORF AND PHF MAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IS LIMITING HEATING AND MIXING WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
NARROW BAND OF MVFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LOW PRES OFF
THE SE COAST IS WILL MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

MORE MID LEVEL AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SSW LATER THIS EVENING AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL.
MODEL DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS WHICH SPREAD NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST VA...BUT ALL SUGGEST AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT ECG
BEFORE DAYBREAK LASTING UNTIL AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS
COULD ALSO REACH ORF AND PHF BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN PHF. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PHF...ORF AND ECG LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN ONGOING NELY FLOW. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15
KT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED...AVERAGING 5-8 FT. HEADLINES REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR SEAS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY FOR 4+ FT WAVES. HAVE
DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE SOUND AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 KT. A
SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN FL TODAY...EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST
SAT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EWD OVER SE CANADA.
THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED NE-E FLOW OVER THE WATERS. THE SFC
LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILD NWD THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS. AS A RESULT...NE-E
FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
4-6 FT THRU MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE FOURTH
PERIOD (SUNDAY) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE SRN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MAY PRODUCE SCA
SPEEDS...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW TRACK. OTHERWISE...FLOW
RETURNS TO THE S MON NIGHT-TUES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUES AFTERNOON-EVENING. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUES
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181854
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
254 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA. THAT LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COOL AFTN ACRS THE FA W/ VRB CLDS. TOUGH TO FIND EXACT COVERAGE
OF LO LVL CLDNS UNDER THE EXTENSIVE MID/HI LVL CLDNS SPREADING
INTO THE FA FM THE SW. SFC OBS SHOWING THAT THE BULK OF THE SC
RMNS RIGHT AT THE CST.

FOR TNGT...CLDNS WILL CONT TO SPREAD NE FM THE ERN GULF STATES AS
SFC LO PRES SLOLY TRACKS ACRS N FL. WATCHING LGT RA BEGINNING TO
MOVE THROUGH FAR WRN/SCNTRL NC SO FAR THIS AFTN...AND THAT RA WILL
CONT TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVE HRS. MDLS (NAM/GFS) DIFFER ON HOW
FAR NNE THE PCPN SHIELD GETS OVRNGT. 12Z/18 ECMWF LEANS IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE GFS AS DOES CURRENT FCST. WILL BLEND ALL THREE
FOR TNGT...IN BRINGING SLGT CHC-CHC POPS N OF THE VA-NC MNLY AFT
MDNGT AND N TO ABT RIC BY LT TNGT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS AFT MDNGT
FOR PORTIONS OF NE NC. LO TEMPS MNLY FM THE L/M40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL CONT W/ A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF AND CURRENT FCST FOR PCPN
COVERAGE ON SAT INTO SUN AS LO PRES IS SLO TO MOVE OFF THE SE
CONUS CST. AFT SAT MRNG...XPCG PCPN SHIELD TO GRADUALLY SINK S
INTO SUN AS SFC HI PRES FM ERN CANADA BEGINS TO BUILD S.

GENLY KEPT AREAS N OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT BUT W/ MSTLY
CLDY CONDS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. ACRS SRN VA INTO NE NC WILL HAVE CHC
TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHEST IN NE NC)...THOUGH TRENDING DOWN FM SAT AFTN
INTO SUN. SGFNT AMT OF CLDNS XPCD TO RMN OVR MNLY SE VA/NE NC
WELL INTO SUN...WHILE ELSW BECOMES P/MSNY. ONSHORE WNDS WILL RMN
GUSTY NR/AT THE CST.

HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L/M50S AT THE CST TO ARND 60F ACRS INTR SE
VA/NE NC...AND THE M60S WELL INLAND N AND NW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM
THE L/M40S INLAND TO ARND 50F AT THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS
SUN FM 55 TO 60F AT THE CST TO THE M/U60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN ARE PERSISTING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST VA COAST REACHING BOTH PHF AND ORF. ONCE
INLAND JUST A FEW MILES THE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR. SBY...RIC AND
ECG WERE VFR AS OF 18Z AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT ORF AND PHF MAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IS LIMITING HEATING AND MIXING WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
NARROW BAND OF MVFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LOW PRES OFF
THE SE COAST IS WILL MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

MORE MID LEVEL AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SSW LATER THIS EVENING AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL.
MODEL DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS WHICH SPREAD NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST VA...BUT ALL SUGGEST AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT ECG
BEFORE DAYBREAK LASTING UNTIL AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS
COULD ALSO REACH ORF AND PHF BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN PHF. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PHF...ORF AND ECG LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TODAY THRU
MON. IN THE SHRT TERM...SCA`S WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THIS
EVENG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (634) AND CURRITUCK SND
(633)...AND THRU LATE SAT NGT FOR ALL THE CSTL WTRS. TNGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FL...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
CST...AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NE OR N
WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG ACRS ALL THE WTRS SAT NGT
INTO SUN NGT...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...TMG


















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181747
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS INVOF ERN NEW ENG LATE THIS MRNG...AND EXTENDS SW
INTO THE MDATLC STATES. ALG-E OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WIDESPREAD
STRATUS COVERS LWR SE MD...ERN 1/3RD OF VA...TO CSTL NE NC. THAT
CLDNS WILL BE SLO TO BREAK THIS AFTN (IF AT ALL) DUE TO CONTD LO
LVL FLO FM THE ENE. ELSW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY THE REST OF THE
DAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF "CLEARING" WORKING NNE INTO WRN/INTERIOR
SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA ATTM...HWVR...ADDITIONAL CLDNS BEGINNING TO
APPROACH/SPREAD NE FM CNTRL/WRN NC. NO RA XPCD THROUGH THIS AFTN.
RMNG COOL...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F...MNLY FM I
95 ON E TO THE CST. HI TEMPS MNLY FM 45 TO 50F NR THE BAY/OCN...TO
THE L/M50S OVR LAND E...AND M/U50S W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT (WILL REMAIN
UN-PHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM). THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THE GFS HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
PCPN CONFINED TO NE NC. LATEST EURO IS PREFERRED SOLUTION...IS
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NAM BUT DOES INDICATE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT TO SUPPORT HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN THESE
AREAS. GENLY KEPT AREAS NORTH OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT
BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WENT CLOSER TO
COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SAT...MID/UPPER 60S FAR NW...TO UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 F IN FAR S/SE VA AND NE NC.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON
SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE
COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN ARE PERSISTING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST VA COAST REACHING BOTH PHF AND ORF. ONCE
INLAND JUST A FEW MILES THE MVFR CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR. SBY...RIC AND
ECG WERE VFR AS OF 18Z AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT ORF AND PHF MAY EVENTUALLY IMPROVE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS IS LIMITING HEATING AND MIXING WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
NARROW BAND OF MVFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LOW PRES OFF
THE SE COAST IS WILL MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

MORE MID LEVEL AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SSW LATER THIS EVENING AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL.
MODEL DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS WHICH SPREAD NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST VA...BUT ALL SUGGEST AT LEAST PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT ECG
BEFORE DAYBREAK LASTING UNTIL AROUND NOON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS
COULD ALSO REACH ORF AND PHF BY DAYBREAK...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT
MAKE IT ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN PHF. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PHF...ORF AND ECG LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TODAY THRU
MON. IN THE SHRT TERM...SCA`S WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THIS
EVENG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (634) AND CURRITUCK SND
(633)...AND THRU LATE SAT NGT FOR ALL THE CSTL WTRS. TNGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FL...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
CST...AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NE OR N
WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG ACRS ALL THE WTRS SAT NGT
INTO SUN NGT...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181402
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1002 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS INVOF ERN NEW ENG LATE THIS MRNG...AND EXTENDS SW
INTO THE MDATLC STATES. ALG-E OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WIDESPREAD
STRATUS COVERS LWR SE MD...ERN 1/3RD OF VA...TO CSTL NE NC. THAT
CLDNS WILL BE SLO TO BREAK THIS AFTN (IF AT ALL) DUE TO CONTD LO
LVL FLO FM THE ENE. ELSW...XPCG VRB CLDS TO MCLDY THE REST OF THE
DAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF "CLEARING" WORKING NNE INTO WRN/INTERIOR
SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA ATTM...HWVR...ADDITIONAL CLDNS BEGINNING TO
APPROACH/SPREAD NE FM CNTRL/WRN NC. NO RA XPCD THROUGH THIS AFTN.
RMNG COOL...HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE/FEW DEGS F...MNLY FM I
95 ON E TO THE CST. HI TEMPS MNLY FM 45 TO 50F NR THE BAY/OCN...TO
THE L/M50S OVR LAND E...AND M/U50S W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT (WILL REMAIN
UN-PHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM). THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THE GFS HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
PCPN CONFINED TO NE NC. LATEST EURO IS PREFERRED SOLUTION...IS
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NAM BUT DOES INDICATE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT TO SUPPORT HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN THESE
AREAS. GENLY KEPT AREAS NORTH OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT
BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WENT CLOSER TO
COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SAT...MID/UPPER 60S FAR NW...TO UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 F IN FAR S/SE VA AND NE NC.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON
SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE
COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVF CEILINGS WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL PERSIS AT COASTAL
TAF SITES FROM SBY TO ORF AND ECG THROUGH 15Z-17Z. HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LO PRES OFF THE
SE COAST WILL WILL MAINTAIN NE OR E WINDS THRU TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVR THE ERN TAF SITES OF SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG THRU
MIDDAY. THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE MID AND HI LVL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FM THE SSW
LATER TODAY AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES MOVNG OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. SOME SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO
ECG BY SAT MORNG. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH ORF AND PHF BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TODAY THRU
MON. IN THE SHRT TERM...SCA`S WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THIS
EVENG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (634) AND CURRITUCK SND
(633)...AND THRU LATE SAT NGT FOR ALL THE CSTL WTRS. TNGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FL...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
CST...AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NE OR N
WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG ACRS ALL THE WTRS SAT NGT
INTO SUN NGT...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
744 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
MORNING...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...ALTHOUGH PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING SO THE SFC RIDGE IS
WEAKENING. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LOW CLOUDINESS IS AFFECTING SOME OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT IS
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND DIFFICULT TO MONITOR ON SATELLITE DUE TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ASSOCIATED W/ THE GULF LOW.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MIDDAY...MODELS
SUGGEST SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATED LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER FROM
THE W/SW. NO REAL CHC FOR PRECIP TODAY DUE TO DEEP DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 900 MB AND 500 MB...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD TREND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY MID AFTN ONWARD. CONTINUED ONSHORE E/NE FLOW
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW AVG ONCE AGAIN.
A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN A MODIFYING/WARMING
AIRMASS BEING OFFSET BY MORE CLOUDS THAN PAST 2 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT (WILL REMAIN
UN-PHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM). THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THE GFS HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
PCPN CONFINED TO NE NC. LATEST EURO IS PREFERRED SOLUTION...IS
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NAM BUT DOES INDICATE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT TO SUPPORT HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN THESE
AREAS. GENLY KEPT AREAS NORTH OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT
BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WENT CLOSER TO
COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SAT...MID/UPPER 60S FAR NW...TO UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 F IN FAR S/SE VA AND NE NC.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON
SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE
COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVF CEILINGS WITH THE NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL PERSIS AT COASTAL
TAF SITES FROM SBY TO ORF AND ECG THROUGH 15Z-17Z. HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LO PRES OFF THE
SE COAST WILL WILL MAINTAIN NE OR E WINDS THRU TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVR THE ERN TAF SITES OF SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG THRU
MIDDAY. THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE MID AND HI LVL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FM THE SSW
LATER TODAY AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES MOVNG OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. SOME SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO
ECG BY SAT MORNG. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO REACH ORF AND PHF BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TODAY THRU
MON. IN THE SHRT TERM...SCA`S WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THIS
EVENG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (634) AND CURRITUCK SND
(633)...AND THRU LATE SAT NGT FOR ALL THE CSTL WTRS. TNGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FL...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
CST...AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NE OR N
WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG ACRS ALL THE WTRS SAT NGT
INTO SUN NGT...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
436 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
MORNING...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...ALTHOUGH PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING SO THE SFC RIDGE IS
WEAKENING. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LOW CLOUDINESS IS AFFECTING SOME OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT IS
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND DIFFICULT TO MONITOR ON SATELLITE DUE TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ASSOCIATED W/ THE GULF LOW.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MIDDAY...MODELS
SUGGEST SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATED LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER FROM
THE W/SW. NO REAL CHC FOR PRECIP TODAY DUE TO DEEP DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 900 MB AND 500 MB...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD TREND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY MID AFTN ONWARD. CONTINUED ONSHORE E/NE FLOW
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW AVG ONCE AGAIN.
A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN A MODIFYING/WARMING
AIRMASS BEING OFFSET BY MORE CLOUDS THAN PAST 2 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT (WILL REMAIN
UN-PHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM). THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THE GFS HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
PCPN CONFINED TO NE NC. LATEST EURO IS PREFERRED SOLUTION...IS
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NAM BUT DOES INDICATE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT TO SUPPORT HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN THESE
AREAS. GENLY KEPT AREAS NORTH OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT
BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WENT CLOSER TO
COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SAT...MID/UPPER 60S FAR NW...TO UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 F IN FAR S/SE VA AND NE NC.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON
SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE
COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES CNTRD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LO PRES OFF
THE SE CST WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN NE OR E WINDS THRU TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVR THE ERN TAF SITES OF SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG
THRU MIDDAY TODAY. THESE LWR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE MID AND HI LVL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FM THE SSW
LATER TODAY AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES MOVNG OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. SOME SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO
ECG BY SAT MORNG.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS TODAY THRU
MON. IN THE SHRT TERM...SCA`S WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THIS
EVENG FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (634) AND CURRITUCK SND
(633)...AND THRU LATE SAT NGT FOR ALL THE CSTL WTRS. TNGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FL...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC
CST...AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NE OR N
WINDS WHICH WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG ACRS ALL THE WTRS SAT NGT
INTO SUN NGT...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
MORNING...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...ALTHOUGH PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING SO THE SFC RIDGE IS
WEAKENING. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LOW CLOUDINESS IS AFFECTING SOME OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT IS
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND DIFFICULT TO MONITOR ON SATELLITE DUE TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE SW ASSOCIATED W/ THE GULF LOW.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MIDDAY...MODELS
SUGGEST SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS DISSIPATED LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER FROM
THE W/SW. NO REAL CHC FOR PRECIP TODAY DUE TO DEEP DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 900 MB AND 500 MB...BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD TREND MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY MID AFTN ONWARD. CONTINUED ONSHORE E/NE FLOW
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW AVG ONCE AGAIN.
A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN A MODIFYING/WARMING
AIRMASS BEING OFFSET BY MORE CLOUDS THAN PAST 2 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT (WILL REMAIN
UN-PHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM). THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THE GFS HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER MODELS WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
PCPN CONFINED TO NE NC. LATEST EURO IS PREFERRED SOLUTION...IS
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NAM BUT DOES INDICATE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT TO SUPPORT HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS IN THESE
AREAS. GENLY KEPT AREAS NORTH OF A RIC TO WAL DRY FOR THE EVENT
BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WENT CLOSER TO
COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS SAT...MID/UPPER 60S FAR NW...TO UPPER
50S/AROUND 60 F IN FAR S/SE VA AND NE NC.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON
SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE
COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES CNTRD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LO PRES OFF
THE SE CST WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN NE OR E WINDS THRU TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVR THE ERN TAF SITES OF SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG
THRU MIDDAY TODAY. THESE LWR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE MID AND HI LVL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FM THE SSW
LATER TODAY AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES MOVNG OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. SOME SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO
ECG BY SAT MORNG.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT
EVENING DUE TO SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE
WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS
FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM
THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS
THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA WINDS TO
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR PASSING
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD/TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
151 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
BAND OF SC HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE COASTAL SC
IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTRUDE VERY FAR INLAND.

THE WIND WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A
NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE AIRMASS HAS
MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST TO
FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES CNTRD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROF OF LO PRES OFF
THE SE CST WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN NE OR E WINDS THRU TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVR THE ERN TAF SITES OF SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG
THRU MIDDAY TODAY. THESE LWR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE MID AND HI LVL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FM THE SSW
LATER TODAY AND TNGT...IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES MOVNG OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO NNE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL. SOME SHOWERS COULD SPREAD INTO
ECG BY SAT MORNG.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT
EVENING DUE TO SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE
WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS
FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM
THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS
THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA WINDS TO
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR PASSING
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1044MB HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
BAND OF SC HAS MOVED ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE COASTAL SC
IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTRUDE VERY FAR INLAND.

THE WIND WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A
NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE AIRMASS HAS
MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST TO
FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH 950 TO 850 MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST.
ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT. WILL BRING
BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT
EVENING DUE TO SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE
WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS
FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM
THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS
THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA WINDS TO
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR PASSING
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA/AJZ
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JAB
MARINE...BMD






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172338
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
738 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT
SUNSHINE PREVAILED EXCEPT ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IN THIS AREA
STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE SKY DURING PART OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INLAND WITH
READINGS OF AROUND 50 TOWARD THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR
PATCHY FROST TO FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOU

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH 950 TO 850 MB WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST.
ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF CLOUDS ARRIVING TONIGHT. WILL BRING
BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT
EVENING DUE TO SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE
WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS
FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM
THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS
THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCA WINDS TO
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR PASSING
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP/JAB
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT
SUNSHINE PREVAILED EXCEPT ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IN THIS AREA
     STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE SKY DURING PART OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INLAND WITH
READINGS OF AROUND 50 TOWARD THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR
PATCHY FROST TO FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS
REACH NORTH THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND
COUNTY. TOTAL QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOU

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER...SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND
AND ALL COASTAL WATERS. SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT DUE TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT EVENING DUE TO SEAS
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID
ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SCA WINDS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER
AIR PASSING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH
RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE INDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT
SUNSHINE PREVAILED EXCEPT ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. IN THIS AREA
...STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE SKY DURING PART OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES INLAND WITH
READINGS OF AROUND 50 TOWARD THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS
WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE PREVAILING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE
AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST TO
FORM AT NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
HOLD THE TEMPERATURE DOWN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
AT THE COASTLINE TO AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS IN TURN WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE NAM KEEPS PCPN TO THE SOUTH. THE EURO DID THE SAME AT
00Z BUT BROUGHT PCPN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. USED CONTINUITY AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES AND HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM 06Z/2AM EDT SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH 18Z/2PM EDT SATURDAY.  SLIGHT CHC POPS REACH NORTH
THROUGH THE METRO RICHMOND AREA AND THROUGH CUMBERLAND COUNTY. TOTAL
QPF IS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOU

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PCPN AND SOME SUNSHINE. THERE READINGS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY 70 AND AROUND 60 IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY. READINGS HOLD IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
RESIDE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME. AS
THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT...A RELATIVELY FLAT
(WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN TWD THE AREA MON
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO BE FAST BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE
TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPS. OVERALL...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S (MID-UPPER 60S POSSIBLE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR NRN CHES BAY. WINDS ARE AVERAGING
10 TO 15 KT WHICH IS BELOW SCA WIND SPEED CRITERIA. SCA FLAGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER...SRN CHES BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND
AND ALL COASTAL WATERS. SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT DUE TO NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND SCA FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH SAT EVENING DUE TO SEAS
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS MAY EVEN STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HI PRES SLIDES ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. FRI NGT THRU
MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID
ATLC CST AS HI PRES MOVES FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SCA WINDS TO OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER
AIR PASSING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR
AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A
CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL
INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
WITH THE AFTN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE RIVERS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 KTS. OVER THE BAY
AND COAST WINDS CONTINUE 15 TO 20 KTS. SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SRN CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR
THE WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI
NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF
THE MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES
EWRD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171513
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1113 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR
AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A
CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL
INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
WITH THE AFTN FORCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
RIVERS AND THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU
FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS
THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK
ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES
WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE
CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15
KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/JAB








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171450
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1050 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR
AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A
CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL
INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
WITH THE AFTN FORCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN VA
RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN
CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE
WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT
THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD
ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171340
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
940 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG/1044 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL...BUT WITH LOW STRATUS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY
PUSHING TO THE WEST. THE STRATUS OFF THE COAST HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS TO THE EAST EXCEPT OVER THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INDICATE A SLOWER INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON FROM INTERSTATE 95 AND WEST. HIGH THIN CLOUDS ADVECTING
FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY 50-55 F NEAR THE COAST (LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN
A FEW SPOTS ON THE ERN SHORE) TO 55-60 F WELL INLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE DROPPED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WELL INLAND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO 32
F...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...LOWS MAINLY 35-40 F...EXCEPT
40-45 F NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN VA
RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN
CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE
WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT
THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD
ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
445 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NPW/FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED. LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 30 TO 35 F RANGE
WITHIN THE WARNED AREA...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY OR
DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A
STRONG/1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...BUT WITH LOW
STRATUS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE WEST.

FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MIGRATE INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE GFS GENLY BEING THE CLOUDIEST (PROBABLY TOO CLOUDY FOR AREAS
WELL INLAND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS). OVERALL...WILL EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND...WHILE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ERN SHORE AS WELL AS FAR SE VA/NE NC. TOO
SHALLOW OF A MOISTURE LAYER TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. THE NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVG AGAIN TODAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS YESTERDAY). EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
50-55 F NEAR THE COAST (LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE
ERN SHORE) TO 55-60 F WELL INLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE DROPPED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WELL INLAND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO 32
F...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...LOWS MAINLY 35-40 F...EXCEPT
40-45 F NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN FOR THE ERN VA
RIVERS AND NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN
CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE
WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT
THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE
MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD
ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NPW/FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED. LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 30 TO 35 F RANGE
WITHIN THE WARNED AREA...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY OR
DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A
STRONG/1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY RIDGING
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...BUT WITH LOW
STRATUS NOT FAR OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE WEST.

FOR TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER OFFSHORE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MIGRATE INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
THE GFS GENLY BEING THE CLOUDIEST (PROBABLY TOO CLOUDY FOR AREAS
WELL INLAND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS). OVERALL...WILL EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WELL INLAND...WHILE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ERN SHORE AS WELL AS FAR SE VA/NE NC. TOO
SHALLOW OF A MOISTURE LAYER TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. THE NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVG AGAIN TODAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS YESTERDAY). EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
50-55 F NEAR THE COAST (LOCALLY UPPER 40S IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE
ERN SHORE) TO 55-60 F WELL INLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE DROPPED MINS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WELL INLAND DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO 32
F...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSE IN SOME AREAS WEST OF I-95 SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. OTHERWISE...LOWS MAINLY 35-40 F...EXCEPT
40-45 F NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170549
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
149 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FREEZE WARNING...ADDING INLAND
WORCESTER MD AND GLOUCESTER/WILLIAMSBURG. OTHERWISE, NPW/FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z.

EARLY EVENING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK/ERN GREAT LAKES, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RESULTANT NE FLOW OFF THE
STILL COOL WATERS HAS ALLOWED COASTAL LOCALES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN
3-5 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND SECTIONS, WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONSIDERING CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS (HENCE THE
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED FREEZE WARNING) OVERNIGHT. SEE CLIMO SECTION
FOR RECORD LOW TEMP VALUES.

TOUGH CALL ACROSS SE PERIPHERY OF WARNING..AND EXPECT SOME AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST RIGHT UP AGAINST NPW WILL (BRIEFLY)
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY DAWN. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A BUFFER
AREA HWO MENTIONING NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC COASTAL
PLAIN. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW SC PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN...AND EVENTUALLY SE VA BY MORNING.
HOWEVER, APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FAR
WEST...TO UPPER 30S SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...
ON THURSDAY CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION W/COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER ACROSS THE SE COAST. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE A SUNNY SKY PERSISTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS
NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGING
FM THE NE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU CLOUDS...WHICH COULD
GO TO MVFR CIGS...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES (ORF/ECG) DURING
TODAY...DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN AT THESE SITES ALSO FM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENG.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THRU FRI NGT...ESPLY ACRS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS LATE FRI AND FRI NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16 (AND UNOFFICIAL HIGHS):

RIC...45 (1929) (UNOFFICIAL HIGH 53)
ORF...46 (1935) (47)
SBY...45 (1935) (51)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952) (50)

RECORD LOWS FOR THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...MAM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
855 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FREEZE WARNING...ADDING INLAND
WORCESTER MD AND GLOUCESTER/WILLIAMSBURG. OTHERWISE, NPW/FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z.

EARLY EVENING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK/ERN GREAT LAKES, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RESULTANT NE FLOW OFF THE
STILL COOL WATERS HAS ALLOWED COASTAL LOCALES TO AVERAGE BETWEEN
3-5 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND SECTIONS, WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONSIDERING CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER MOST INLAND SECTIONS (HENCE THE
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED FREEZE WARNING) OVERNIGHT. SEE CLIMO SECTION
FOR RECORD LOW TEMP VALUES.

TOUGH CALL ACROSS SE PERIPHERY OF WARNING..AND EXPECT SOME AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST RIGHT UP AGAINST NPW WILL (BRIEFLY)
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY DAWN. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A BUFFER
AREA HWO MENTIONING NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC COASTAL
PLAIN. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW SC PUSHING INLAND
ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN...AND EVENTUALLY SE VA BY MORNING.
HOWEVER, APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. EARLY MORNING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S FAR
WEST...TO UPPER 30S SE COASTAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...
ON THURSDAY CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION W/COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER ACROSS THE SE COAST. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE A SUNNY SKY PERSISTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS
NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO BRING IN STRATOCU
CLOUDS...WHICH COULD GO MVFR...OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16 (AND UNOFFICIAL HIGHS):

RIC...45 (1929) (UNOFFICIAL HIGH 53)
ORF...46 (1935) (47)
SBY...45 (1935) (51)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952) (50)

RECORD LOWS FOR THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>090-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...MAM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
434 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STILL COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE WATER. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW DEVELOPING THERE. NOT
SURE THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT WENT AHEAD AND
DEVELOPED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE
WEST AND NORTH AS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN
INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS
ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
GUSTY N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS
FORECASTS AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP
OVER SE VA/NE NC TAF SITES THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THU AFTN FOR ERN VA RIVERS
AND NRN CHES BAY...AND THROUGH THU EVENING FOR SRN CHES BAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR (ALBEIT WEAKER)
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTN...WHICH WILL
INCREASE SPEEDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO...THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI EVENING. PROLONGED SCA FLAGS
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT DUE TO SEAS STAYING AT OR
ABOVE 5 FT IN PERSISTENT NE/ONSHORE FLOW.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A WEAK LOW PASSING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
PUSHES A WEAK BACKDOOR TROUGH AND A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND DIRECTION REMAINS IN AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AND SEAS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH ABOVE 5 FT AGAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161937
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
337 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
STILL COLD AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S. HAVE ISSUES A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER
TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND COME OFF THE
WATER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ALSO THE NAM AND RUC BOTH INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 950 MB TONIGHT WITH THE EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THERE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL RETURN BUT DID
DEVELOP CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY THESE CLOUDS SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANOTHER
COLL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE
THE LEAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN INFLUENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ALL AGREE ON TROUGHING DEVELOPING JUST OF THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT
WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO WILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM BUT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE
POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
MILDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK
INTO THE 60S. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY
N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS
AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>083-085-087>089-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY
N WINDS BECOME NE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING. WINDS HAVE TENDED TO BE SLIGHTLY BACKED FROM MOS FORECASTS
AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. NE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WHICH COULD GO MVFR DEVELOP OVER SE
SECTIONS THURSDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE TREND TOWARD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161700
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. N WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS
OVR THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10 TO 15 KT AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...REMAINING GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED INTO SCA
FLAGS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WINDS TURN TO THE
NE AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER. ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS LIKELY THAT SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS
ABOVE 5 FT WILL CONTINUE BEYOND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
A FINAL DECISION MADE REGARDING HEADLINES BY THE AFTN FORECAST
PACKAGE (ISSUED BY 4 PM TODAY).

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...BMD/TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161423
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1023 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. N WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS
OVR THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10 TO 15 KT AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH 17Z. THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE
CHARLES HAVE A SCA FOR WINDS AND LATER SEAS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
THE REST OF THE INLAND WATERS HAVE SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161401
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING.  PERHAPS EVEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS
IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS
MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS TIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG. OTHERWISE...GALE WARNINGS WILL GRADUALLY END AT 7 AM IN THE
RIVERS...AND 10 AM OR 1 PM TODAY OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. THE
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED WITH SCA`S LATER THIS MORNG INTO
EARLY THIS AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS IN AND N WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT. HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE
WARNING THROUGH 9 AM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE VERIFYING
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING (LOWS
MAY END UP CLOSER TO 33-34 F IN THESE AREAS). STILL IS QUITE COLD
FOR MID APRIL...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH 7 AM...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS.
PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL
BE EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT
WILL GET (THIS IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE
SECTION AS THIS MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE
SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE
ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL
TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE
INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT
800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A
COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL
AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS TIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG. OTHERWISE...GALE WARNINGS WILL GRADUALLY END AT 7 AM IN THE
RIVERS...AND 10 AM OR 1 PM TODAY OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. THE
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED WITH SCA`S LATER THIS MORNG INTO
EARLY THIS AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS IN AND N WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT. HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)
ECG...52 (1962 & 1952)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES
HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE
WARNING THROUGH 9 AM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE VERIFYING
OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING (LOWS
MAY END UP CLOSER TO 33-34 F IN THESE AREAS). STILL IS QUITE COLD
FOR MID APRIL...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH 7 AM...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS.
PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL
BE EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST
GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE
LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT
WILL GET (THIS IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE
SECTION AS THIS MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK.


HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE AREAS
OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE...WITH
A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...


TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16:

RIC...45 (1929)
ORF...46 (1935)
SBY...45 (1935)

RECORD LOWS THU 4/17:

RIC...31 (1949)
ORF...34 (1875)
SBY...26 (2008)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160559
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
IN MY 20 YEARS HERE AT AKQ...NOT SURE I HAVE SEEN ALL THESE EVENTS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE FA AS THEY HAVE DURING THE PAST FEW HRS. 1) A
30 DEGREE TEMP DROP IN 2 HRS...2) WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY GUSTING BETWEEN 60-70 MPH...3) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...4) SOME
SLEET BEING REPORTED W & N OF RIC. JUST ANTHR DAY IN PARADISE.

CULPRIT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THRU THE NIGHT. MDT TO
OCNL HVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND E OF I95 WITH PCPN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WILL TREND GRIDS WITH HIGH POPS
NEXT 1-3 HRS THEN QUICKLY END W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT WITH ALL SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY QUICK DRYING OF THE COLUMN RESULTING
IN DCRG CLDNS AND CLRG EXPECTED AFTR 06Z. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN
AS PCPN ENDS...BUT WON`T INDCT THIS IN GRIDS ATTM. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 30-40 WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST NEXT
SVRL HRS THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO DMNSH LATE. INLAND WINDS 20-30 MPH
WILL DMNSH LATE AS WELL. LSR OF THIS EVENING EVENTS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
SHORT TERM. DUE TO N TO NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
CLOUDS FROM STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH SIDE HAMPTON ROADS ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MAY GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE
COAST INCLUDING THE NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH AREA AND THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
INCLUDING LOCATIONS THAT ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY NEEDED
HEADLINES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER SHIFTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS
COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL
OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30
KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE
REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI
STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR
E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT
THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160131
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
931 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
IN MY 20 YEARS HERE AT AKQ...NOT SURE I HAVE SEEN ALL THESE EVENTS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE FA AS THEY HAVE DURING THE PAST FEW HRS. 1) A
30 DEGREE TEMP DROP IN 2 HRS...2) WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY GUSTING BETWEEN 60-70 MPH...3) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...4) SOME
SLEET BEING REPORTED W & N OF RIC. JUST ANTHR DAY IN PARADISE.

CULPRIT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THRU THE NIGHT. MDT TO
OCNL HVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG AND E OF I95 WITH PCPN QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WILL TREND GRIDS WITH HIGH POPS
NEXT 1-3 HRS THEN QUICKLY END W-E AFTR MIDNIGHT WITH ALL SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY QUICK DRYING OF THE COLUMN RESULTING
IN DCRG CLDNS AND CLRG EXPECTED AFTR 06Z. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN
AS PCPN ENDS...BUT WON`T INDCT THIS IN GRIDS ATTM. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 30-40 WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST NEXT
SVRL HRS THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO DMNSH LATE. INLAND WINDS 20-30 MPH
WILL DMNSH LATE AS WELL. LSR OF THIS EVENING EVENTS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DURING THE
SHORT TERM. DUE TO N TO NW WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
CLOUDS FROM STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH SIDE HAMPTON ROADS ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MAY GET NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPR 40S ALONG THE
COAST INCLUDING THE NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH AREA AND THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING AGAIN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
INCLUDING LOCATIONS THAT ONLY FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ANY NEEDED
HEADLINES WILL BE DEFERRED TO LATER SHIFTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING
INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE
MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY
FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE
AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC
LOW TRAVELLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE
TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED
COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS
TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE AREA. EXPECT N WINDS TO GUST TO
OVER 30KT UNTIL 05Z WED. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL GUST TO 20KT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BY
05Z...ENDING FIRST AT RIC.

SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNGS WILL CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR ALL WTRS TDY INTO TNGT. A
STRONG COLD FRNT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC
CST...WITH GUSTY SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRNT TO BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONGER NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT OVRNGT
AS THE FRNT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HI PRES BLDS IN FROM THE W WITH
LARGE PRES RISES. WAVES WILL RISE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR THE BAY...AND
SEAS WILL RISE TO 6 TO 9 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS. HI PRES CONTINUES TO
BLD IN THRU WED AFTN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL HAVE THE GALES ENDING AT 7 AM FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS...AND HOLDING INTO THE ERLY AFTN FOR THE CST AND SOUND.
HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WED NGT THRU FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>085-087>094.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAS








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