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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
700 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1027MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING
TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY
JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT
READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS
MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH
(GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY
THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH RN/SN LATE THU
NGT AND LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW
YIELDS A MODEST AND SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S (WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING
IN A SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
700 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1027MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING
TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY
JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT
READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS
MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH
(GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY
THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH RN/SN LATE THU
NGT AND LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW
YIELDS A MODEST AND SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S (WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING
IN A SHARPLY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR BRISK WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT TO YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA COASTS WILL PUSH
OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THESE
SYSTEMS TO KEEP BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL
PERSIST ON THE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ON THE COASTAL
WATERS ALL DAY. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5-8FT NORTH TO 7-10FT
SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DROPPING BELOW 5FT LATE TONIGHT. WAVES OF 3-5FT WILL ALSO SUBSIDE
TO 3-4FT THROUGH TODAY...DROPPING TO 2-3FT BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. THE
HIGH GETS SHUNTED OVER THE SE COAST THU AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS GETS
PULLED OVER THE WATERS BY THE DEPARTING LOW AND A CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH REGARD
TO THE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES THUS RESULTING IN STRONGER CAA
PROCESSES. SINCE MODELS TEND TO UNDERCUT WIND SPEEDS IN THESE
SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE WATERS
WITHIN POTENTIALLY SOLID GALE CONDITIONS (EXCEPT RIVERS/SOUND)
FRI/FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WOULD AVERAGE 20-25KT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40KT. SEAS/WAVES ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD QUICKLY ONCE THE WIND
SURGE BEGINS. SEAS COULD REACH 7-10FT...WAVES COULD REACH 4-6FT.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE/DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE, BUT
DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT READINGS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST,
WITH EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
CONDITIONS WL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25) ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH
INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR
MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER NIGHT TNGT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE. DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP
OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE,
READINGS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY TODAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25)
ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER
NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND
TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES STRONG COASTAL LOW (~989MB) LIFTING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY AREA TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. TO THE WEST, ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
WITH WINDS KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE. DO EXPECT WINDS TO DROP
OFF BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE,
READINGS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
THICKNESS TOOLS MESH WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST, WITH EXPECTED
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER UPR 30S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY TODAY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVGG 15-20 MPH (GUSTS TO 25)
ALONG THE COAST, 5-10 MPH INLAND. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
30S THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST DESPITE A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT/ERY THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD YIELD GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND A COLDER
NIGHT TNGT. EARLY MORNING LOWS THURSDAY MORNING 15 TO 20 INLAND
TO LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU
AFTN/EVENING, OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, HAVE
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ANY SHRAS LATE THU
AFTN/EVENING WOULD BE BRIEF, WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. 00Z/28 DATA IS ALSO A BIT QUICKER TO DRY OUT
ANY PCPN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR HIGHS, PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW YIELDS A MODEST AND
SHORT LIVED WARM UP ON THU, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
(WARMEST I-85/US-1 CORRIDOR). ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU NGT/FRIDAY MORNING, USHERING IN A SHARPLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR BRISK
WINDS OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TO
YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
LOW TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT (SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ON THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
AROUND -10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW WITH PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SUN...AND NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL
RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY
PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRYING CONDITIONS MON-
TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY
TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280600
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REMNANT BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SWD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 28/0900-1000Z...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN
THE INCOMING HIGH AND THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO PRODUCE BREEZY NNW-N WINDS THROUGH TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 THURSDAY EVENING. A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND
SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...SAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~988 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AS
THE HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR
NE NC THRU EARLY WED AM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL
FOR LATE JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE
DIGITS PSBL OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
741 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
741 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND CENTERS OVER VA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO ~15KT
WILL PREVAIL WED DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 272046
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~981 MB LO PRES JUST E OF CAPE COD
WITH ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. THE LO WILL ADVANCE
NEWRD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME THEN CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT AS THE
HI MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...NW FLOW CONTINUES TNGT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY FOR SOME AREAS THIS EVENG BUT THIS SHOULD
BE ISOLTD. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR LATE
JAN...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LO TO MID 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE...WITH UPR SINGLE DIGITS PSBL
OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR WED/WED NIGHT...STRONG SFC HI PRES BLDS E FM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-
LEVEL TROF PULLS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MSTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLEAR SKY
WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS. HIGHS WED RANGE FM THE MID 30S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S/LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
LOWS WED NIGHT AS TNGT...LO TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LO DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.

SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
A BIT SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20-30% POPS ATTM WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER NRN AREAS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG TRANSITIONING TO
A RA/SN MIX OVRNGT. ANY PCPN WILL BE LIGHT. HI PRES THEN SLOWLY
BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NRN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAILING. TROUGH EXITS THE COAST FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY SAT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND
-10C (-1 STD DEV). THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH
PUSHING THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE SUN AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN...AND
NORTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DEEP H85 TROUGH EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE
NWD FROM THE ERN GULF INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WIDESPREAD
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 40S (POSSIBLY
WARMER) SUN...WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AS WAA KICKS IN. HOWEVER...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALL RAIN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES LATE SAT NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WLY PUSH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
DRYING CONDITIONS MON-TUES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW. BY TUES...TEMPS FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS REMAINS STRONG BTWN LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST. THE
RESULT IS ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS. NW GUSTS UP TO 25
KT OVER THE BAY AND 30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE NE
COAST AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE ALREADY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE IN THE BAY AND 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY WEDS
TO 5-7 FT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY ARRIVES WEDS NIGHT...WITH WINDS
FINALLY DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU
THE NIGHT...FALLING BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLY FLOW BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE WATERS THURS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THURS NIGHT. ANOTHER CAA NW SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WATERS SAT AND SUN IN
ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM IN TERMS OF SNOW AND IFR CONDS HAVE JUST
ABOUT ENDED. THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SW RIC
AS OF 18Z. CLOUDS (MOSTLY MVFR CIGS) ARE THINNING OUT AND SHOULD
CLEAR LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY FROM THE N/NW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND FOLLOWED CLOSE TO LAVMOS FOR THOSE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271435
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     093-096.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ070-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271435
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WX ADVSRYS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK THIS MORNG AS THE SNOW HAS
ENDED IN SOME AREAS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE LATE MORNG
HRS. ALSO ADDED AN SPS FOR AREAS S OF THE ADVSRY AREA WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     093-096.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ070-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271201
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
701 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM WITNER
WX ADVISORY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GIVEN LATEST REPORTS AND
TRAFFIC CAMS IN METRO RIC/ORF AREAS, WILL CONTINUE THEM ELSWEHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED QUITE A FEW REPORTS ~1 AND A FEW
IN THE 1 1/2 TO 2" ALONG THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA.
TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA
(CONFIRMED BY LOCAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING
WINTER HEADLINES FOR A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL
HANDLED BY THE HRRR EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES
IN NORFOLK OR RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T
FEEL DROPPING THE HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES
AT 7AM UPDATE. DO EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES
SHORTLY AFTER 14Z IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 12Z...WITH EITHER LOW
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z AND HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25
KT AT ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. HAVE ISSUED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO SCA FLAGS FOR NRN COASTAL
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH 34KT OR GREATER AT SFC BUOYS. SCA FOR NRN WATERS
WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH
WINDS AND PRIMARILY SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS VERY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED
CAA AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SURGE IN SPEEDS. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...
LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 3MB THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER NWLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS
OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS
TO EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED
EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
WATERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT
THE HIGH OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271012 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271012 CCA
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW PULLS TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA AS COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. CLEARING
SKY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS WILL ALLOW EARLY MORNING
LOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE THE 20S FOR MOST, W/ WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH SHALLOW MIXING AND A NNE WIND. HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR
30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE. DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

RAIN CHCS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU/THU NGT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE THU NGT. DAY BEGINS
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BEST FORCING
REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH, SO HAVE CAPPED POP AT NO HIGHER THAN 30%
FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THU NGT AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR HIGHS, SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MODEST WARMUP WITH MAXIMA IN THE U30S ERN SHORE/NRN
NECK...LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND U40S FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK
MOVING FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT
TO SEA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT
THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY
NJ AS OF 4 AM. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY
TIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ADDED CAA AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS ARE CAUSING N-NW WINDS TO EXPERIENCE A SURGE IN
SPEEDS BUT STILL WITHIN GALES FOR NRN OCEAN AND WITHIN STRONG SCA
FOR BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS HAVE QUICKLY RISEN TO 8-12FT IN SRN
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF...LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE...AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTN TO 5-7FT SRN
WATERS/6-10FT NRN WATERS...AS THE LOW TRACKS NE AND AWAY FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL
GUIDANCE...GALES MAY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SCA FLAGS PRIOR TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS/SEAS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. FOR TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW TRACKS TWD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. PRESSURE RISES AROUND 3MB
THIS EVENING (OCCURRING BTWN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z TONIGHT)...INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER NWLLY SURGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING FOR THE BAY/OCEAN AS CAA AND WRAPAROUND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED.
CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP NW WINDS ELEVATED WITHIN SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL SHOW A MARKED
DECREASE TO 4-5FT BY WED AFTN. ONLY CHANGE MADE TO SCA FLAGS WAS TO
EXTEND CHES BAY AND SRN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10 PM WED EVENING
BEFORE WINDS/SEAS FALL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THRU WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU WILL SHUNT THE HIGH
OVER THE SE COAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270906
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270906
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NARROW BAND OF PCPN DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA SOUTH INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. VSBY AVGG
2-4SM IN SN, AND WE`VE RECEIVED SCATTERED REPORTS OF ~1" ALONG THE
NORTHERN NECK INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH TRAFFIC CAMS SHOWING AT
LEAST A COATING INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA (CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER). WE WILL BE MAINTAINING WINTER HEADLINES FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, WITH THIS BAND OF SNSH WELL HANDLED BY THE HRRR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCALES IN NORFOLK OR
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE ANY MORE THAN AN INCH...BUT WITH
THE HEADLINE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...DON`T FEEL DROPPING THE
HEADLINES IS PRUDENT ATTM. WL REVISIT HEADLINES AT 7AM UPDATE. DO
EXPECT DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR HEADLINES SHORTLY AFTER 14Z
IF NOT SOONER.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP IN TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR COASTAL NE NC, AND
GRADUALLY TAPERED THEM OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DROPPED POPS INTO NO HIGHER THAN 20% BUT HAVE KEPT
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN ZONES, AS ACCUMS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL POPS DROP OFF BY EARLY AFTN, WITH STRONG CAA
BRINGING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (25-30MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST/ERN SHORE), AND HOLDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (~40
IN THE PIEDMONT) UNDER A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OCEAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...FELL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS AS WINDS SHIFTED FASTER THAN
EXPECTED FROM ONSHORE E/NE MON AFTN TO OFFSHORE N/NW. DEPARTURES
HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. MDL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPCOMING TIDE THIS AFTN REACHING ABOVE 4 FT
MLLW...BUT THIS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE GIVEN THE N/NW WIND
DIRECTION AND CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. NAM- BASED CBOFS GUIDANCE IS
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN REALITY...BUT IN TERMS OF TREND
SHOWS THE TIDE THIS AFTN TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HIGH TIDE
EARLIER THIS MORNING THAT ONLY PEAKED AT 3.7 FT MLLW. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
COASTAL FLOOD ADVSIORY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW.

ACRS THE LOWER BAY DEPARTURES ARE ALSO RUNNING AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
FEET...BUT THIS STILL LEADS TO TIDES FALLING AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHY
OF MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTN. DEPARTURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WED
WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270612
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND AROUND 2.0 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF AROUND 4.0 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO
TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE
ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AFTER CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS MAY NEED TO PLACE ANOTHER ONE
IN EFFECT FOR THE TUE AFTN HIGH TIDE AT OCEAN CITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270612
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES AS OF 06Z (RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AT KECG)...WITH EITHER LOW MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
SOME VARIABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 12Z...WILL
AVG IFR WITH CIGS JUST BELOW 1000 FT AND VSBYS OF 2-3SM. COULD
BRIEFLY SEE LIFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY AT KORF). GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT AT
ORF/KECG...AROUND 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO IFR CIGS AT MOST SITES THROUGH AROUND 15Z...WITH CIGS LIFTING
TO 1500-2500 FT THEREAFTER. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NW AND REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AFTN. A
WEAK SYSTEM MAY DROP CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND AROUND 2.0 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF AROUND 4.0 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO
TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE
ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AFTER CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS MAY NEED TO PLACE ANOTHER ONE
IN EFFECT FOR THE TUE AFTN HIGH TIDE AT OCEAN CITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ081-
     089>091-093>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270300
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE MD/DE COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SOLID IFR CONDS SHOULD HANG THROUGH TUE MORNING. PCPN WINDS DOWN
AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-
     094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-
     084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270300
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1000 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM EST...
NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED WSW HEADLINES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WITHIN THE ENTIRE
WSW IS LOW. LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSED
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THRU TUESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE
OF THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CHES BAY/EASTERN SHORE
ATTM...THE NAM AND LATEST HRRR ARE VOID OF ANY OTHER ORGANIZED
AREAS OF PCPN. AT LEAST WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SIGNS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN COUNTING ON
THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUES MORNING...THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO FAR REMOVED FROM
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW OFFSHORE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TRIM SNOW ACCUMULATION WORDING IN THE WSW`S THIS EVENING...AS A
COATING/HALF INCH OF SNOW MAY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
MOST PLACES. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY 2-3" ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW...BUT A FURTHER REDUCTION IN SNOW
TOTALS MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR
20S NW TO THE MID 30S SE. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER
TUES MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE MD/DE COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SOLID IFR CONDS SHOULD HANG THROUGH TUE MORNING. PCPN WINDS DOWN
AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-
     094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-
     084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE MD/DE COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SOLID IFR CONDS SHOULD HANG THROUGH TUE MORNING. PCPN WINDS DOWN
AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-
     084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE MD/DE COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

SOLID IFR CONDS SHOULD HANG THROUGH TUE MORNING. PCPN WINDS DOWN
AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST.
WINDS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-
     090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-
     084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262244
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
544 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262244
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
544 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 1.5 TO 2.0 FT IN THE LOWER BAY AND 2.0 TO 2.5 FT FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN SHORE. MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT OCEAN CITY INLET...WITH A WATER LEVEL OF 4.9 FT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN FROM MODERATE FLOODING...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY...BUT WILL REACH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH ANOMALIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF TUE NGT/WED AS
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFYS RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS
IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO START TRIMMING BACK ON INHERITED
WINTER WX ADVSRYS AS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 1-3IN OF SNOW HAS DECREASED
OVER MANY AREAS. WPC AND MUCH OF 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVSRY-LEVEL SNOWFALL STILL OVER
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE 2-4IN IS PSBL. DO NOT THINK NORFOLK AND
RICHMOND METRO AREAS WILL RECEIVE AOA 2IN...BUT WITH THE HEADLINE
ALREADY OUT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH TO PSBLY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS
(AND AREAS N AND E) IN THE ADVSRY FOR NOW. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
TEMPS...WITH PARTS OF THE AREA STAYING JUST A TAD ABOVE FREEZING.
WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED THIS EVENG AND TNGT.

AS FOR PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS
ASIDE FM WORCESTER CNTY WHERE AN AREA OF RA HAS BEEN PERSISTENT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THIS EVENG AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. POPS RANGE FM 40-50% SW TO 70-80% NE. THE RA WILL
TRANSITION TO A RA/SN MIX THEN SN FM NW TO SE TNGT. TOTAL QPF WILL
BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 20S FAR
NW TO MID 30S SE. PCPN WILL END FM W TO E ON TUE AS THE SFC LO
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND NW CAA FLOW LEADS TO GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH NR THE CST AND LWR ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID
30S TO LWR 40S UNDER A CLOUDY-MSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IMPROVING WX FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED...AFOREMENTIONED CSTL LO PULLS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS. LO TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
COOL TEMPS INTO WED AS WELL...WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING FM THE MID
30S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AGAIN FOR WED NIGHT WITH SIMILAR TEMPS AS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM. ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST STATES SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A CHC OF RAIN IS IN
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW PSBL FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. EURO HAS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPR 30S AND 40S THURSDAY
LOWERING TO MOSTLY 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 30S FRIDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 20S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT
THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA HEADLINES FORECAST THRU WEDS.

LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK OF N-NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. BEGINNING TO SEE 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS HAVE RESPONDED...BUILDING TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44009. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THRU LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 30 KT) EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW INTENSIFYS RAPIDLY AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
CAA ALSO INTENSIFIES. GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WINDS AND CAA. SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 12 FT IN THE NRN WATERS
AND 5 TO 8 FT IN THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NW...KEEPING HIGH SEAS FROM REACHING THE
BEACHES. NO HIGH SURF PLANNED ATTM. LITTLE CHANGE TUES AS STRONG NW
FLOW PERSISTS BTWN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS THRU EARLY TUES EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE WEDS...ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AOB 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDE THRU WEDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
SET TO CROSS THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ081-089-090-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
...RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THE
TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST
...RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THE
TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN.
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN.
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261634
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261634
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1134 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO.

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261224
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261224
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 724 AM EST...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE MORNING/AFTN OVER
PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AT RIC THIS
MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED SBY TO IFR AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BLENDED
CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN
EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
508 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT...AS COLDER AIR PLUNGES SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW OFF THE VA COAST.
STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE
EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE OFF THE
COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE BANDING
DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND
DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE. THUS...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN POSITION OF THIS
BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD
ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH 2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE
(AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK
TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CARFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENUALLT TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA`S OVER REMAINDR OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260632
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES A RATHER DYNAMIC
MID/UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS KY/TN...WITH THE UPPER PV MAX
DIVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM EVEN
GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL EARLIER THIS EVENING. A QUIET
EVENING IS OCCURRING LOCALLY WITH JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS
THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO ADVANCE E. THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA (RAP/HRRR)
ALONG WITH THE 26/00Z NAM SUGGEST DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AROUND 09-15Z. IT THEN WEAKENS
FROM 15-18Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECAST
MAINLY W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO FAR NRN PORTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST DATA DOES SUGGEST HIGHER QPF WITH THE INITIAL RAIN LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT STILL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 0.30" OR LESS.
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). OF
NOTE...THE 26/00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE 25/18Z GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SECONDARY ZONE OF DEFORMATION AND BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS BACK OVER
CENTRAL VA MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS COULD COMPLICATE THE SNOW
FORECAST.

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM/LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260632
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES A RATHER DYNAMIC
MID/UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS KY/TN...WITH THE UPPER PV MAX
DIVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM EVEN
GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL EARLIER THIS EVENING. A QUIET
EVENING IS OCCURRING LOCALLY WITH JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS
THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO ADVANCE E. THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA (RAP/HRRR)
ALONG WITH THE 26/00Z NAM SUGGEST DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AROUND 09-15Z. IT THEN WEAKENS
FROM 15-18Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECAST
MAINLY W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO FAR NRN PORTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST DATA DOES SUGGEST HIGHER QPF WITH THE INITIAL RAIN LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT STILL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 0.30" OR LESS.
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). OF
NOTE...THE 26/00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE 25/18Z GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SECONDARY ZONE OF DEFORMATION AND BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS BACK OVER
CENTRAL VA MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS COULD COMPLICATE THE SNOW
FORECAST.

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING LATER THIS
MORNING...FIRST OVER RIC/SBY THROUGH 15Z...THEN BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN OVER PHF/ORF/ECG. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
MAINLY AT RIC THIS MORNING...WITH VCSH WORDING AT SBY BY LATE
MORNING. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR AND IN SOME
CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR SBY WHERE NE
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
MONDAY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY (02-06Z/TUESDAY) AND
CONTINUES TROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLIS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED AT RIC/PHF/ORF WITH ONLY A TRACE AMTS OF SNOW EXPECTED AT
ECG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AND THROUGH THE
EVENING AT SBY AND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MON ESPECIALLY DURING
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AT PHF/ORF/ECG, MAINLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MAM/LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260340
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES A RATHER DYNAMIC
MID/UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS KY/TN...WITH THE UPPER PV MAX
DIVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM EVEN
GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL EARLIER THIS EVENING. A QUIET
EVENING IS OCCURRING LOCALLY WITH JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS
THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO ADVANCE E. THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA (RAP/HRRR)
ALONG WITH THE 26/00Z NAM SUGGEST DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AROUND 09-15Z. IT THEN WEAKENS
FROM 15-18Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECAST
MAINLY W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO FAR NRN PORTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST DATA DOES SUGGEST HIGHER QPF WITH THE INITIAL RAIN LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT STILL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 0.30" OR LESS.
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). OF
NOTE...THE 26/00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE 25/18Z GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SECONDARY ZONE OF DEFORMATION AND BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS BACK OVER
CENTRAL VA MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS COULD COMPLICATE THE SNOW
FORECAST.

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID WEEK.

AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO
MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR
SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PHF AND
ORF WITH ONLY A DUSTING PSBL AT ECG AND RIC. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260340
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES A RATHER DYNAMIC
MID/UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS KY/TN...WITH THE UPPER PV MAX
DIVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM EVEN
GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL EARLIER THIS EVENING. A QUIET
EVENING IS OCCURRING LOCALLY WITH JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS
THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO ADVANCE E. THE LATEST HIGH RES DATA (RAP/HRRR)
ALONG WITH THE 26/00Z NAM SUGGEST DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE ERN VA PIEDMONT AROUND 09-15Z. IT THEN WEAKENS
FROM 15-18Z AS THE MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...LIKELY POPS WILL BE FORECAST
MAINLY W OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO FAR NRN PORTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST DATA DOES SUGGEST HIGHER QPF WITH THE INITIAL RAIN LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT STILL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 0.30" OR LESS.
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). OF
NOTE...THE 26/00Z NAM AS WELL AS THE 25/18Z GFS BOTH INDICATE A
SECONDARY ZONE OF DEFORMATION AND BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS BACK OVER
CENTRAL VA MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS COULD COMPLICATE THE SNOW
FORECAST.

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID WEEK.

AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO
MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR
SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PHF AND
ORF WITH ONLY A DUSTING PSBL AT ECG AND RIC. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260002
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
702 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AFTN WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SRN
PLAINS. MILD/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MAIN
CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER STILL WELL TO
OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NORTH
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). QUIET EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
TO EAST. HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. ALSO...DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC LOW REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS...AND MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THUS...WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE FAR
WEST AND NORTH...AND EVEN HERE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10" OR LESS. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING
ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH).

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID WEEK.

AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO
MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR
SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PHF AND
ORF WITH ONLY A DUSTING PSBL AT ECG AND RIC. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260002
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
702 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AFTN WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SRN
PLAINS. MILD/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MAIN
CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER STILL WELL TO
OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NORTH
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). QUIET EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
TO EAST. HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. ALSO...DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC LOW REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS...AND MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THUS...WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE FAR
WEST AND NORTH...AND EVEN HERE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10" OR LESS. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING
ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH).

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MID WEEK.

AS OF 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. BLENDED CURRENT POPS WITH SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE FOR STARTING TIMES OF PCPN. CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER TO
MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR DURING THE AFTN EXCEPT AT ECG. THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND APPEAR TO BE LINING UP FOR
SBY WHERE NE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT
SBY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SNOWFALL ELSEWHERE AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AT PHF AND
ORF WITH ONLY A DUSTING PSBL AT ECG AND RIC. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR PCPN LATE IN THE WEEK MAINLY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
439 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AFTN WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SRN
PLAINS. MILD/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MAIN
CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER STILL WELL TO
OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NORTH
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). QUIET EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
TO EAST. HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. ALSO...DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC LOW REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS...AND MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THUS...WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE FAR
WEST AND NORTH...AND EVEN HERE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10" OR LESS. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING
ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
     HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH).

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1000Z TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL THEREAFTER AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP
BEGINS AS ALL RAIN AND RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KRIC AND KSBY...WHICH WILL DRIVE
CIGS/VIS DOWN INTO IFR/MVFR RANGES AT ALL AIR TERMINALS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...DURING EARLY MON EVENING
NW AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SE...THUS CAUSING OVERALL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FARTHER. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER THE NRN NECK...MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND KSBY
WHERE 1-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE AFTN. BREEZY NE
WINDS EARLY MON TURN TO THE N BY MON EVENING. NW WINDS BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS
SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON TUE...HOWEVER BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO A LINGERING AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALL PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
439 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AFTN WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SRN
PLAINS. MILD/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MAIN
CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER STILL WELL TO
OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NORTH
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). QUIET EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
TO EAST. HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. ALSO...DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC LOW REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS...AND MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THUS...WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE FAR
WEST AND NORTH...AND EVEN HERE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10" OR LESS. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING
ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
     HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH).

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1000Z TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL THEREAFTER AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP
BEGINS AS ALL RAIN AND RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KRIC AND KSBY...WHICH WILL DRIVE
CIGS/VIS DOWN INTO IFR/MVFR RANGES AT ALL AIR TERMINALS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...DURING EARLY MON EVENING
NW AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SE...THUS CAUSING OVERALL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FARTHER. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER THE NRN NECK...MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND KSBY
WHERE 1-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE AFTN. BREEZY NE
WINDS EARLY MON TURN TO THE N BY MON EVENING. NW WINDS BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS
SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON TUE...HOWEVER BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO A LINGERING AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALL PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
439 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AFTN WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SRN
PLAINS. MILD/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MAIN
CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER STILL WELL TO
OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NORTH
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). QUIET EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
TO EAST. HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. ALSO...DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC LOW REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS...AND MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THUS...WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE FAR
WEST AND NORTH...AND EVEN HERE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10" OR LESS. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING
ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
     HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH).

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1000Z TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL THEREAFTER AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP
BEGINS AS ALL RAIN AND RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KRIC AND KSBY...WHICH WILL DRIVE
CIGS/VIS DOWN INTO IFR/MVFR RANGES AT ALL AIR TERMINALS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...DURING EARLY MON EVENING
NW AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SE...THUS CAUSING OVERALL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FARTHER. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER THE NRN NECK...MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND KSBY
WHERE 1-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE AFTN. BREEZY NE
WINDS EARLY MON TURN TO THE N BY MON EVENING. NW WINDS BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS
SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON TUE...HOWEVER BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO A LINGERING AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALL PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
439 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AFTN WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SRN
PLAINS. MILD/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MAIN
CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER STILL WELL TO
OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NORTH
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). QUIET EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
TO EAST. HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. ALSO...DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC LOW REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS...AND MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THUS...WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE FAR
WEST AND NORTH...AND EVEN HERE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10" OR LESS. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING
ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
     HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH).

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1000Z TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL THEREAFTER AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP
BEGINS AS ALL RAIN AND RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KRIC AND KSBY...WHICH WILL DRIVE
CIGS/VIS DOWN INTO IFR/MVFR RANGES AT ALL AIR TERMINALS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...DURING EARLY MON EVENING
NW AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SE...THUS CAUSING OVERALL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FARTHER. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER THE NRN NECK...MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND KSBY
WHERE 1-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE AFTN. BREEZY NE
WINDS EARLY MON TURN TO THE N BY MON EVENING. NW WINDS BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS
SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON TUE...HOWEVER BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO A LINGERING AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALL PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR MODERATE AS
WELL...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF LIKELIHOOD TO ISSUE ANY WATCH/WARNING ATTM
WITH THIS STILL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OUT. WILL RE-EVALUATE TNGT.
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF
LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AFTN WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SRN
PLAINS. MILD/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MAIN
CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER STILL WELL TO
OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NORTH
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). QUIET EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
TO EAST. HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. ALSO...DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC LOW REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS...AND MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THUS...WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE FAR
WEST AND NORTH...AND EVEN HERE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10" OR LESS. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING
ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

...HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH).

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.





&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1000Z TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL THEREAFTER AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP
BEGINS AS ALL RAIN AND RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KRIC AND KSBY...WHICH WILL DRIVE
CIGS/VIS DOWN INTO IFR/MVFR RANGES AT ALL AIR TERMINALS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...DURING EARLY MON EVENING
NW AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SE...THUS CAUSING OVERALL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FARTHER. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER THE NRN NECK...MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND KSBY
WHERE 1-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE AFTN. BREEZY NE
WINDS EARLY MON TURN TO THE N BY MON EVENING. NW WINDS BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS
SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON TUE...HOWEVER BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO A LINGERING AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALL PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG
NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1
TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL
REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT OCEAN CITY INLET. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
402 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY
MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AFTN WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SRN
PLAINS. MILD/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MAIN
CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER STILL WELL TO
OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE GENLY IN THE 50S (UPPER 40S FAR NORTH
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). QUIET EVENING WITH JUST A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
TO EAST. HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. ALSO...DEEP LIFT/UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC LOW REACHES THE
APPALACHIANS...AND MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THUS...WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO THE FAR
WEST AND NORTH...AND EVEN HERE ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 0.10" OR LESS. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S /ABOVE FREEZING
ALL AREAS SO NO P-TYPE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

...HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF AND 15Z SREF THIS
PERIOD. HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE
06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL (ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH).

FOR MON...THE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSFER TO THE OFFSHORE SFC
LOW AND MUCH OF THE AKQ CWA WILL BE IN SORT OF A LULL WITH FAIRLY
WEAK LIFT DESPITE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACRS
THE NORTH AND CHC POPS SOUTH ON MON...JUST DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW MORE DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...INTO THE MID 50S IN NE NC...TO THE LOWER
40S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER. WE WENT CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS
DUE TO A LACK OF FAITH IN THE GFS MODEL THIS CYCLE.

THE MAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS MON NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW
OFF THE VA COAST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESIDE
OFF THE COAST. WILL BE RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND INTENSE
BANDING DEVELOPING FROM THE DELMARVA TO LOG ISLAND TO "WRAP
AROUND" AND DROP SOUTH FOR MOST OF OUR SNOW INTO THE DAY TUE.
THUS...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF. ANY CHANGE IN
POSITION OF THIS BANDING CAN HAVE DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH. HAVE FORECAST
ROUGHLY 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE MD ERN SHORE IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH
2-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHORE (AREAS THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED AN
ADVISORY)...TAPERED FAIRLY QUICK TO < 1" OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 1" ACRS HAMPTON ROADS EARLY
TUE HOWEVER.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE TUE MORNING/AFTN...BUT IF ECMWF
IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED. MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM TUE...ESPECIALLY
ACRS THE NE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LWR 30S NE TO AROUND 40 F SW.
CLEARING/COLD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S AND HIGHS ON WED IN LWR 40S SW TO THE LWR 30S NE.





&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S.
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1000Z TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL THEREAFTER AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP
BEGINS AS ALL RAIN AND RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KRIC AND KSBY...WHICH WILL DRIVE
CIGS/VIS DOWN INTO IFR/MVFR RANGES AT ALL AIR TERMINALS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...DURING EARLY MON EVENING
NW AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SE...THUS CAUSING OVERALL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FARTHER. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER THE NRN NECK...MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND KSBY
WHERE 1-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE AFTN. BREEZY NE
WINDS EARLY MON TURN TO THE N BY MON EVENING. NW WINDS BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS
SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON TUE...HOWEVER BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO A LINGERING AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALL PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED OVR ALL WTRS FOR THE UPCOMING STRONG
CSTL LO. FOR TNGT...10-15 KT SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E AS
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W. THE LO WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA CST ON MON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES NEWRD
INTO MON NIGHT. A GALE WARNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CSTL WTRS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR 34+ KT WINDS IS HI ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LO. FOR THE REMAINDER CSTL WTRS AND THE BAY...WITH THIS
BEING 3RD PERIOD AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD WITH A GALE
WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL BE CONVERTED TO EITHER A GALE WARNG OR SCA IN
FUTURE UPDATES. OTWS...WENT WITH A SCA FOR THE SOUND AND RIVERS.
ANOTHER THING OF NOTE IS SEAS WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AT LEAST 12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY UP TO
5-6 FT. NW FLOW AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE
NIGHT/WED AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN
FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG
NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1
TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL
REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT OCEAN CITY INLET. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251822
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
122 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
IL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH A SMALL AREA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES (CIGS AROUND 15 K FT) OVER THE FAR WRN/NW ZONES. ADJUSTED
CLOUDS AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. RAISED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR CENTRAL AND SE
VA WHERE SKIES WILL AVG MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS INTO THE MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 50S IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACRS THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
     HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

CONTINUING TO EVALUATE 12Z MODELS COMING IN...HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS
HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE 06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL
(ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). GENLY WE ARE FAVORING A
BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF/00Z ECMWF OVER THE GFS AS THIS AREA
OF QPF DOES NOT NOT MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. WILL BE CONSIDERING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A
FEW OTHER ZONES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT ARE NOT IN THE
CURRENT WATCH (MAINLY THE NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA/VA ERN SHORE) BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE DOING SO).

PREV DISC...
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERAL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON
BY THE LATEST 00Z SUITE OF MODELS...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LO (AND ITS STRENGTH)
OFF THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS LATE MON THRU TUE...LEADING
TO SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WX...MAINLY POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION MON EVENG THRU TUE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS
ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA MON NIGHT/TUE...WHILE THE NAM IS WEAKER
WITH THIS FEATURE.

MAIN THEME FOR TNGT INTO MON AFTN IS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND
COLD AIR...THUS MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY MON...RATHER THAN SNOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS SLGTLY
TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHER
NRN AND WRN COUNTIES) AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THROUGH MON MORNG. LOWS
TNGT RANGING FM THE MID 30S N...TO THE UPR 30S/NEAR 40 S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE MON NGT TO TUE PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVG GIVEN THE MAJOR
MODEL DISCREPANCIES. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS THRU TUE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FCSTS. THESE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE CWA SEEING A GOOD CHC FOR
AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD AND VA
ERN SHR. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NE/E TO HI CHC ELSEWHERE MON AFTN
THROUGH MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. HIGHS ON MON WERE RAISED A BIT
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S ACRS THE SE...WITH UPR 30S TO MID 40S
OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO THE EVENG...WITH PCPN TYPE BECOMING MAINLY SNOW
FM NW TO SE LATE MON AFTN THRU MON EVENG. LOWS MON NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 20S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 30S EXTRM SE. HIGHS ON TUE IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES
NIGHT AS THE DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE
THE LOCAL AREA WEDS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND
DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. CAA WILL RESULT
IN H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -6 TO -10C DURING THE DAY...YIELDING
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. COLDER TEMPS OVER THE ERN SHORE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WEDS NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON THURS. SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. WHILE THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION...BEST MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACROSS
THE NE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND
THURS NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST. THERMAL PROFILES...LOW
TEMPS AND AIR MASS SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY RAIN ATTM...BUT RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NE ZONES. DRYING FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEREAFTER...MODELS COMPETING ON WHICH
STREAM WINS THRU THE WEEKEND. GFS FAVORS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF FAVORING A NRN STREAM SYSTEM.

TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THURS-FRI...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S-LOW 40S SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1000Z TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL THEREAFTER AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP
BEGINS AS ALL RAIN AND RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KRIC AND KSBY...WHICH WILL DRIVE
CIGS/VIS DOWN INTO IFR/MVFR RANGES AT ALL AIR TERMINALS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...DURING EARLY MON EVENING
NW AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SE...THUS CAUSING OVERALL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FARTHER. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER THE NRN NECK...MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND KSBY
WHERE 1-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE AFTN. BREEZY NE
WINDS EARLY MON TURN TO THE N BY MON EVENING. NW WINDS BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS
SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON TUE...HOWEVER BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO A LINGERING AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALL PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 725 AM EST...LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL NE OF THE WATERS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA THIS
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AOB 10KT...AND SEAS WL SUBSIDE TO
2-4FT BY AFTN.

GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON MON. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM, QUICKLY BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS...WITH CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW END GALE
CONDITIONS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. DUE TO ONGOING SCA, WILL WAIT UNTIL
CURRENT HAZARDS EXPIRE BEFORE HOISTING NEW FLAGS. BEST CHANCE FOR
GALES WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU TUES
NIGHT. DECIDED TO FOREGO GALE WATCH HEADLINE FOR NOW WITH LIKELY
TIME PERIOD OF GALES 4 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY. EITHER WAY, WINDS
TO START TO DROP OFF WED/WED NGT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW THURSDAY AS HIGH
SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS WL TAKE AWHILE TO DROP OFF, AND WL LKLY REMAIN
ELEVATED AOA 5 FT THRU THE DAY WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO CROSS THE
WATERS THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG
NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1
TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL
REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT OCEAN CITY INLET. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251822
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
122 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
IL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH A SMALL AREA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES (CIGS AROUND 15 K FT) OVER THE FAR WRN/NW ZONES. ADJUSTED
CLOUDS AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. RAISED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR CENTRAL AND SE
VA WHERE SKIES WILL AVG MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS INTO THE MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 50S IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACRS THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
     HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

CONTINUING TO EVALUATE 12Z MODELS COMING IN...HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS
HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE 06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL
(ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). GENLY WE ARE FAVORING A
BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF/00Z ECMWF OVER THE GFS AS THIS AREA
OF QPF DOES NOT NOT MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. WILL BE CONSIDERING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A
FEW OTHER ZONES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT ARE NOT IN THE
CURRENT WATCH (MAINLY THE NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA/VA ERN SHORE) BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE DOING SO).

PREV DISC...
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERAL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON
BY THE LATEST 00Z SUITE OF MODELS...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LO (AND ITS STRENGTH)
OFF THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS LATE MON THRU TUE...LEADING
TO SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WX...MAINLY POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION MON EVENG THRU TUE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS
ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA MON NIGHT/TUE...WHILE THE NAM IS WEAKER
WITH THIS FEATURE.

MAIN THEME FOR TNGT INTO MON AFTN IS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND
COLD AIR...THUS MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY MON...RATHER THAN SNOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS SLGTLY
TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHER
NRN AND WRN COUNTIES) AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THROUGH MON MORNG. LOWS
TNGT RANGING FM THE MID 30S N...TO THE UPR 30S/NEAR 40 S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE MON NGT TO TUE PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVG GIVEN THE MAJOR
MODEL DISCREPANCIES. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS THRU TUE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FCSTS. THESE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE CWA SEEING A GOOD CHC FOR
AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD AND VA
ERN SHR. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NE/E TO HI CHC ELSEWHERE MON AFTN
THROUGH MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. HIGHS ON MON WERE RAISED A BIT
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S ACRS THE SE...WITH UPR 30S TO MID 40S
OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO THE EVENG...WITH PCPN TYPE BECOMING MAINLY SNOW
FM NW TO SE LATE MON AFTN THRU MON EVENG. LOWS MON NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 20S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 30S EXTRM SE. HIGHS ON TUE IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES
NIGHT AS THE DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE
THE LOCAL AREA WEDS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND
DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. CAA WILL RESULT
IN H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -6 TO -10C DURING THE DAY...YIELDING
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. COLDER TEMPS OVER THE ERN SHORE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WEDS NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON THURS. SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. WHILE THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION...BEST MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACROSS
THE NE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND
THURS NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST. THERMAL PROFILES...LOW
TEMPS AND AIR MASS SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY RAIN ATTM...BUT RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NE ZONES. DRYING FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEREAFTER...MODELS COMPETING ON WHICH
STREAM WINS THRU THE WEEKEND. GFS FAVORS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF FAVORING A NRN STREAM SYSTEM.

TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THURS-FRI...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S-LOW 40S SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1000Z TONIGHT...WITH
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT AGL THEREAFTER AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. PRECIP
BEGINS AS ALL RAIN AND RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KRIC AND KSBY...WHICH WILL DRIVE
CIGS/VIS DOWN INTO IFR/MVFR RANGES AT ALL AIR TERMINALS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...DURING EARLY MON EVENING
NW AND LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT SE...THUS CAUSING OVERALL
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FARTHER. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER THE NRN NECK...MD/VA EASTERN SHORE...AND KSBY
WHERE 1-4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE AFTN. BREEZY NE
WINDS EARLY MON TURN TO THE N BY MON EVENING. NW WINDS BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS
SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON TUE...HOWEVER BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST TUE
INTO TUE NIGHT DUE TO A LINGERING AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALL PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 725 AM EST...LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL NE OF THE WATERS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA THIS
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AOB 10KT...AND SEAS WL SUBSIDE TO
2-4FT BY AFTN.

GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON MON. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM, QUICKLY BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS...WITH CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW END GALE
CONDITIONS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. DUE TO ONGOING SCA, WILL WAIT UNTIL
CURRENT HAZARDS EXPIRE BEFORE HOISTING NEW FLAGS. BEST CHANCE FOR
GALES WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU TUES
NIGHT. DECIDED TO FOREGO GALE WATCH HEADLINE FOR NOW WITH LIKELY
TIME PERIOD OF GALES 4 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY. EITHER WAY, WINDS
TO START TO DROP OFF WED/WED NGT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW THURSDAY AS HIGH
SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS WL TAKE AWHILE TO DROP OFF, AND WL LKLY REMAIN
ELEVATED AOA 5 FT THRU THE DAY WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO CROSS THE
WATERS THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG
NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1
TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL
REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT OCEAN CITY INLET. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251703
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1203 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
IL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH A SMALL AREA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES (CIGS AROUND 15 K FT) OVER THE FAR WRN/NW ZONES. ADJUSTED
CLOUDS AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. RAISED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR CENTRAL AND SE
VA WHERE SKIES WILL AVG MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS INTO THE MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 50S IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACRS THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

...HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

CONTINUING TO EVALUATE 12Z MODELS COMING IN...HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS
HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE 06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL
(ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). GENLY WE ARE FAVORING A
BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF/00Z ECMWF OVER THE GFS AS THIS AREA
OF QPF DOES NOT NOT MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. WILL BE CONSIDERING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A
FEW OTHER ZONES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT ARE NOT IN THE
CURRENT WATCH (MAINLY THE NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA/VA ERN SHORE) BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE DOING SO).

PREV DISC...
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERAL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON
BY THE LATEST 00Z SUITE OF MODELS...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LO (AND ITS STRENGTH)
OFF THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS LATE MON THRU TUE...LEADING
TO SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WX...MAINLY POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION MON EVENG THRU TUE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS
ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA MON NIGHT/TUE...WHILE THE NAM IS WEAKER
WITH THIS FEATURE.

MAIN THEME FOR TNGT INTO MON AFTN IS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND
COLD AIR...THUS MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY MON...RATHER THAN SNOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS SLGTLY
TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHER
NRN AND WRN COUNTIES) AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THROUGH MON MORNG. LOWS
TNGT RANGING FM THE MID 30S N...TO THE UPR 30S/NEAR 40 S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE MON NGT TO TUE PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVG GIVEN THE MAJOR
MODEL DISCREPANCIES. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS THRU TUE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FCSTS. THESE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE CWA SEEING A GOOD CHC FOR
AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD AND VA
ERN SHR. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NE/E TO HI CHC ELSEWHERE MON AFTN
THROUGH MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. HIGHS ON MON WERE RAISED A BIT
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S ACRS THE SE...WITH UPR 30S TO MID 40S
OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO THE EVENG...WITH PCPN TYPE BECOMING MAINLY SNOW
FM NW TO SE LATE MON AFTN THRU MON EVENG. LOWS MON NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 20S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 30S EXTRM SE. HIGHS ON TUE IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES
NIGHT AS THE DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE
THE LOCAL AREA WEDS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND
DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. CAA WILL RESULT
IN H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -6 TO -10C DURING THE DAY...YIELDING
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. COLDER TEMPS OVER THE ERN SHORE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WEDS NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON THURS. SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. WHILE THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION...BEST MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACROSS
THE NE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND
THURS NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST. THERMAL PROFILES...LOW
TEMPS AND AIR MASS SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY RAIN ATTM...BUT RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NE ZONES. DRYING FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEREAFTER...MODELS COMPETING ON WHICH
STREAM WINS THRU THE WEEKEND. GFS FAVORS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF FAVORING A NRN STREAM SYSTEM.

TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THURS-FRI...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S-LOW 40S SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EST...VFR CONDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, WITH A CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. WINDS REMAIN W-SW AOB 10KT.

OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY AT SBY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 725 AM EST...LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL NE OF THE WATERS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA THIS
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUIOLD TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AOB 10KT...AND SEAS WL SUBSIDE TO
2-4FT BY AFTN.

GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON MON. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM, QUICKLY BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS...WITH CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW END GALE
CONDITIONS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. DUE TO ONGOING SCA, WILL WAIT UNTIL
CURRENT HAZARDS EXPIRE BEFORE HOISTING NEW FLAGS. BEST CHANCE FOR
GALES WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU TUES
NIGHT. DECIDED TO FOREGO GALE WATCH HEADLINE FOR NOW WITH LIKELY
TIME PERIOD OF GALES 4 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY. EITHER WAY, WINDS
TO START TO DROP OFF WED/WED NGT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW THURSDAY AS HIGH
SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS WL TAKE AWHILE TO DROP OFF, AND WL LKLY REMAIN
ELEVATED AOA 5 FT THRU THE DAY WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO CROSS THE
WATERS THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG
NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1
TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL
REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT OCEAN CITY INLET. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251703
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1203 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
IL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH A SMALL AREA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES (CIGS AROUND 15 K FT) OVER THE FAR WRN/NW ZONES. ADJUSTED
CLOUDS AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. RAISED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR CENTRAL AND SE
VA WHERE SKIES WILL AVG MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS INTO THE MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 50S IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACRS THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

...HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MD ERN SHORE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...

CONTINUING TO EVALUATE 12Z MODELS COMING IN...HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS
HAS A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WEST OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE 06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL
(ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). GENLY WE ARE FAVORING A
BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF/00Z ECMWF OVER THE GFS AS THIS AREA
OF QPF DOES NOT NOT MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. WILL BE CONSIDERING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A
FEW OTHER ZONES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT ARE NOT IN THE
CURRENT WATCH (MAINLY THE NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENINSULA/VA ERN SHORE) BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE DOING SO).

PREV DISC...
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERAL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON
BY THE LATEST 00Z SUITE OF MODELS...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LO (AND ITS STRENGTH)
OFF THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS LATE MON THRU TUE...LEADING
TO SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WX...MAINLY POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION MON EVENG THRU TUE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS
ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA MON NIGHT/TUE...WHILE THE NAM IS WEAKER
WITH THIS FEATURE.

MAIN THEME FOR TNGT INTO MON AFTN IS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND
COLD AIR...THUS MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY MON...RATHER THAN SNOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS SLGTLY
TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHER
NRN AND WRN COUNTIES) AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THROUGH MON MORNG. LOWS
TNGT RANGING FM THE MID 30S N...TO THE UPR 30S/NEAR 40 S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE MON NGT TO TUE PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVG GIVEN THE MAJOR
MODEL DISCREPANCIES. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS THRU TUE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FCSTS. THESE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE CWA SEEING A GOOD CHC FOR
AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD AND VA
ERN SHR. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NE/E TO HI CHC ELSEWHERE MON AFTN
THROUGH MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. HIGHS ON MON WERE RAISED A BIT
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S ACRS THE SE...WITH UPR 30S TO MID 40S
OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO THE EVENG...WITH PCPN TYPE BECOMING MAINLY SNOW
FM NW TO SE LATE MON AFTN THRU MON EVENG. LOWS MON NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 20S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 30S EXTRM SE. HIGHS ON TUE IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES
NIGHT AS THE DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE
THE LOCAL AREA WEDS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND
DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. CAA WILL RESULT
IN H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -6 TO -10C DURING THE DAY...YIELDING
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. COLDER TEMPS OVER THE ERN SHORE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WEDS NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON THURS. SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. WHILE THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION...BEST MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACROSS
THE NE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND
THURS NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST. THERMAL PROFILES...LOW
TEMPS AND AIR MASS SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY RAIN ATTM...BUT RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NE ZONES. DRYING FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEREAFTER...MODELS COMPETING ON WHICH
STREAM WINS THRU THE WEEKEND. GFS FAVORS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF FAVORING A NRN STREAM SYSTEM.

TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THURS-FRI...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S-LOW 40S SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EST...VFR CONDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, WITH A CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. WINDS REMAIN W-SW AOB 10KT.

OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY AT SBY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 725 AM EST...LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL NE OF THE WATERS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA THIS
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUIOLD TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AOB 10KT...AND SEAS WL SUBSIDE TO
2-4FT BY AFTN.

GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON MON. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM, QUICKLY BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS...WITH CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW END GALE
CONDITIONS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. DUE TO ONGOING SCA, WILL WAIT UNTIL
CURRENT HAZARDS EXPIRE BEFORE HOISTING NEW FLAGS. BEST CHANCE FOR
GALES WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU TUES
NIGHT. DECIDED TO FOREGO GALE WATCH HEADLINE FOR NOW WITH LIKELY
TIME PERIOD OF GALES 4 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY. EITHER WAY, WINDS
TO START TO DROP OFF WED/WED NGT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW THURSDAY AS HIGH
SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS WL TAKE AWHILE TO DROP OFF, AND WL LKLY REMAIN
ELEVATED AOA 5 FT THRU THE DAY WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO CROSS THE
WATERS THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG
NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1
TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL
REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT OCEAN CITY INLET. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251650
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1150 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
IL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH A SMALL AREA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES (CIGS AROUND 15 K FT) OVER THE FAR WRN/NW ZONES. ADJUSTED
CLOUDS AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. RAISED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR CENTRAL AND SE
VA WHERE SKIES WILL AVG MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS INTO THE MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 50S IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACRS THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENTLY EVALUATING 12Z MODELS COMING IN...HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS
A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST
OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE 06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL
(ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). GENLY WE ARE FAVORING A
BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF/00Z ECMWF OVER THE GFS AS THIS AREA
OF QPF DOES NOT NOT MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. WILL BE CONSIDERING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WATCH OVER NE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY THE ERN SHORE) WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE
(ALTHOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE DOING SO).

PREV DISC...
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERAL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON
BY THE LATEST 00Z SUITE OF MODELS...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LO (AND ITS STRENGTH)
OFF THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS LATE MON THRU TUE...LEADING
TO SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WX...MAINLY POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION MON EVENG THRU TUE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS
ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA MON NIGHT/TUE...WHILE THE NAM IS WEAKER
WITH THIS FEATURE.

MAIN THEME FOR TNGT INTO MON AFTN IS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND
COLD AIR...THUS MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY MON...RATHER THAN SNOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS SLGTLY
TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHER
NRN AND WRN COUNTIES) AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THROUGH MON MORNG. LOWS
TNGT RANGING FM THE MID 30S N...TO THE UPR 30S/NEAR 40 S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE MON NGT TO TUE PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVG GIVEN THE MAJOR
MODEL DISCREPANCIES. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS THRU TUE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FCSTS. THESE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE CWA SEEING A GOOD CHC FOR
AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD AND VA
ERN SHR. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NE/E TO HI CHC ELSEWHERE MON AFTN
THROUGH MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. HIGHS ON MON WERE RAISED A BIT
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S ACRS THE SE...WITH UPR 30S TO MID 40S
OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO THE EVENG...WITH PCPN TYPE BECOMING MAINLY SNOW
FM NW TO SE LATE MON AFTN THRU MON EVENG. LOWS MON NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 20S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 30S EXTRM SE. HIGHS ON TUE IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES
NIGHT AS THE DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE
THE LOCAL AREA WEDS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND
DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. CAA WILL RESULT
IN H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -6 TO -10C DURING THE DAY...YIELDING
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. COLDER TEMPS OVER THE ERN SHORE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WEDS NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON THURS. SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. WHILE THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION...BEST MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACROSS
THE NE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND
THURS NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST. THERMAL PROFILES...LOW
TEMPS AND AIR MASS SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY RAIN ATTM...BUT RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NE ZONES. DRYING FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEREAFTER...MODELS COMPETING ON WHICH
STREAM WINS THRU THE WEEKEND. GFS FAVORS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF FAVORING A NRN STREAM SYSTEM.

TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THURS-FRI...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S-LOW 40S SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EST...VFR CONDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, WITH A CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. WINDS REMAIN W-SW AOB 10KT.

OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY AT SBY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 725 AM EST...LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL NE OF THE WATERS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA THIS
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUIOLD TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AOB 10KT...AND SEAS WL SUBSIDE TO
2-4FT BY AFTN.

GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON MON. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM, QUICKLY BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS...WITH CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW END GALE
CONDITIONS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. DUE TO ONGOING SCA, WILL WAIT UNTIL
CURRENT HAZARDS EXPIRE BEFORE HOISTING NEW FLAGS. BEST CHANCE FOR
GALES WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU TUES
NIGHT. DECIDED TO FOREGO GALE WATCH HEADLINE FOR NOW WITH LIKELY
TIME PERIOD OF GALES 4 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY. EITHER WAY, WINDS
TO START TO DROP OFF WED/WED NGT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW THURSDAY AS HIGH
SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS WL TAKE AWHILE TO DROP OFF, AND WL LKLY REMAIN
ELEVATED AOA 5 FT THRU THE DAY WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO CROSS THE
WATERS THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG
NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1
TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL
REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT OCEAN CITY INLET. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251650
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1150 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS CLIPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHERN
IL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES AVG MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH A SMALL AREA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES (CIGS AROUND 15 K FT) OVER THE FAR WRN/NW ZONES. ADJUSTED
CLOUDS AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING. RAISED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR CENTRAL AND SE
VA WHERE SKIES WILL AVG MAINLY SUNNY. HIGHS INTO THE MID TO
PERHAPS UPPER 50S IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACRS THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENTLY EVALUATING 12Z MODELS COMING IN...HAVE NOTED 12Z GFS HAS
A SPURIOUS LOOKING BULLSEYE OF QPF OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEST
OF THE BAY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THE 06Z GFS HAD THIS AS WELL
(ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH). GENLY WE ARE FAVORING A
BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF/00Z ECMWF OVER THE GFS AS THIS AREA
OF QPF DOES NOT NOT MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. WILL BE CONSIDERING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WATCH OVER NE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY THE ERN SHORE) WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE
(ALTHOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE DOING SO).

PREV DISC...
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERAL PATTERN IS AGREED UPON
BY THE LATEST 00Z SUITE OF MODELS...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LO (AND ITS STRENGTH)
OFF THE MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND CSTS LATE MON THRU TUE...LEADING
TO SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WX...MAINLY POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION MON EVENG THRU TUE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS
ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA MON NIGHT/TUE...WHILE THE NAM IS WEAKER
WITH THIS FEATURE.

MAIN THEME FOR TNGT INTO MON AFTN IS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND
COLD AIR...THUS MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY MON...RATHER THAN SNOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX GRIDS SLGTLY
TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS (HIGHER
NRN AND WRN COUNTIES) AFTR MIDNGT TNGT THROUGH MON MORNG. LOWS
TNGT RANGING FM THE MID 30S N...TO THE UPR 30S/NEAR 40 S. CONFIDENCE
IN THE MON NGT TO TUE PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVG GIVEN THE MAJOR
MODEL DISCREPANCIES. AT THIS TIME...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/GFS THRU TUE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FCSTS. THESE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE CWA SEEING A GOOD CHC FOR
AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD AND VA
ERN SHR. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NE/E TO HI CHC ELSEWHERE MON AFTN
THROUGH MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG. HIGHS ON MON WERE RAISED A BIT
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S ACRS THE SE...WITH UPR 30S TO MID 40S
OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL LATER IN
THE AFTN INTO THE EVENG...WITH PCPN TYPE BECOMING MAINLY SNOW
FM NW TO SE LATE MON AFTN THRU MON EVENG. LOWS MON NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 20S EXTRM NW TO THE MID 30S EXTRM SE. HIGHS ON TUE IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUES
NIGHT AS THE DEEP/ANOMALOUS NRN STREAM TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCES IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE
THE LOCAL AREA WEDS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND
DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. CAA WILL RESULT
IN H85 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -6 TO -10C DURING THE DAY...YIELDING
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. COLDER TEMPS OVER THE ERN SHORE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WEDS NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW APPROACH
FROM THE WEST ON THURS. SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSS THE
REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. WHILE THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION...BEST MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE ACROSS
THE NE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND
THURS NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST. THERMAL PROFILES...LOW
TEMPS AND AIR MASS SUPPORT PREDOMINATELY RAIN ATTM...BUT RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NE ZONES. DRYING FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEREAFTER...MODELS COMPETING ON WHICH
STREAM WINS THRU THE WEEKEND. GFS FAVORS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF FAVORING A NRN STREAM SYSTEM.

TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THURS-FRI...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S-LOW 40S SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EST...VFR CONDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, WITH A CLEAR
SKY EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. WINDS REMAIN W-SW AOB 10KT.

OUTLOOK: ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY AT SBY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WEST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 725 AM EST...LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL NE OF THE WATERS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA THIS
MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUIOLD TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AOB 10KT...AND SEAS WL SUBSIDE TO
2-4FT BY AFTN.

GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON MON. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE COAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THIS SYSTEM, QUICKLY BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS...WITH CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW END GALE
CONDITIONS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. DUE TO ONGOING SCA, WILL WAIT UNTIL
CURRENT HAZARDS EXPIRE BEFORE HOISTING NEW FLAGS. BEST CHANCE FOR
GALES WILL BE MON NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU TUES
NIGHT. DECIDED TO FOREGO GALE WATCH HEADLINE FOR NOW WITH LIKELY
TIME PERIOD OF GALES 4 FORECAST PERIODS AWAY. EITHER WAY, WINDS
TO START TO DROP OFF WED/WED NGT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW THURSDAY AS HIGH
SLIPS OFFSHORE. SEAS WL TAKE AWHILE TO DROP OFF, AND WL LKLY REMAIN
ELEVATED AOA 5 FT THRU THE DAY WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM SET TO CROSS THE
WATERS THURS NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NGT/FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG
NLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1
TO 1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SEVERAL SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL
REACH HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT MONDAY NIGHT. MINOR FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT OCEAN CITY INLET. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUES...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP OFF LATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








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