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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
414 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
E-NE TOWARDS SRN ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL SHUNT A WEAK BACK DOOR SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ONCE AGAIN NOTING SOME PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. NOTING SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SPOTS ACROSS
THE SW PIEDMONT. AS NOTED YDA, LOCAL TRAFFIC CAMERAS INDICATING
THAT LOW VSBYS AREN`T TOO WIDESPREAD JUST YET...SO AN SPS HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY NEED TO GO WITH A
NARROW DENSE FOG ADVY AREA TOWARDS DAWN IF DENSE FOG APPEARS MORE
WIDESPREAD. WENT WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THAT OF YDA, WITH LOW
STRATUS INLAND LIFTING SLOWLY BY MIDDAY. KAKQ RADAR CONTINUES TO
PICK UP SOME VERY LGT SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME VRY WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP THIS MORNING OVER THE
NE CWA...AND FOR THE AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE HRRR IS KEYING
IN ON SOME VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/WEAK DVPA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR LGT SHRAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WL BRING SOME SHORT LIVED CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MAXIMA RANGE FROM MID TO U70S NORTH
AND EASTERN SHORE TO AROUND 80 SOUTHWEST UNDER A GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
E-NE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY
ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TNGT MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT, BUT WL GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. WENT WITH WARMER NAM GUIDANCE WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY U50S TO L60S.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHC POP
THU MORNING AS LOW STRATUS/DZ ONCE AGAIN SCOURS OUT. THEREAFTER,
EXPECT VRB CLDS AND DRY WX THU. GGEM AND DOWNSCALE NAM DO CONTINUE
TO HINT AT SOME VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING, BUT LIFT APPEARS TOO SHALLOW
TO YIELD MUCH MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF I-95.
ACCORDINGLY, HV GONE DRY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS THU MANLY FM THE MID
70S TO ARND 80.

AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL DIG E-SE ACROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST/TN VLY THU NGT AND
FRIDAY. E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCRSG MOISTURE AND OVC CONDITIONS
THU NGT AND FRIDAY AND SOME ISOLD SHRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING
STRONG CDFNT SHOULD REMAIN JUST W OF THE FA FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES AS OF 01/0730Z ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF
SCNTRL VA FROM GENERALLY KAKQ-KFKN-KEMV...WHERE AREAS OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND UP INTO THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS OF 5-10KT
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSHPERE MIXED...THUS
PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SCT LOW
STRATUS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE 01/1300-1400Z. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY BREAKS IN
STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING TO FILL BACK IN BY THIS AFTN. LATE DAY
CLEARING IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE SUNSET...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
INFLUX OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT (CIGS ABOVE 8 KFT AGL). DRY
WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. STRENGTHENING WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FROPA SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.


&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA AND THEN NE ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N OR NE
AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SWAN GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO
AROUND 5FT NEAR 20NM MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WAVEWATCH. DUE TO WEAK
CAA AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE KEPT 5FT SEAS JUST BEYOND THE 20NM MARK FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEREFORE NO SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRI INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
414 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
E-NE TOWARDS SRN ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL SHUNT A WEAK BACK DOOR SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ONCE AGAIN NOTING SOME PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. NOTING SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SPOTS ACROSS
THE SW PIEDMONT. AS NOTED YDA, LOCAL TRAFFIC CAMERAS INDICATING
THAT LOW VSBYS AREN`T TOO WIDESPREAD JUST YET...SO AN SPS HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY NEED TO GO WITH A
NARROW DENSE FOG ADVY AREA TOWARDS DAWN IF DENSE FOG APPEARS MORE
WIDESPREAD. WENT WITH A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THAT OF YDA, WITH LOW
STRATUS INLAND LIFTING SLOWLY BY MIDDAY. KAKQ RADAR CONTINUES TO
PICK UP SOME VERY LGT SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME VRY WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP THIS MORNING OVER THE
NE CWA...AND FOR THE AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE HRRR IS KEYING
IN ON SOME VERY LIGHT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/WEAK DVPA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR LGT SHRAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WL BRING SOME SHORT LIVED CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MAXIMA RANGE FROM MID TO U70S NORTH
AND EASTERN SHORE TO AROUND 80 SOUTHWEST UNDER A GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
E-NE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY
ABOVE H9 BUT ARE NEARLY SATURATED IN LOW LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TNGT MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT, BUT WL GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. WENT WITH WARMER NAM GUIDANCE WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. LOWS GENERALLY U50S TO L60S.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHC POP
THU MORNING AS LOW STRATUS/DZ ONCE AGAIN SCOURS OUT. THEREAFTER,
EXPECT VRB CLDS AND DRY WX THU. GGEM AND DOWNSCALE NAM DO CONTINUE
TO HINT AT SOME VERY WEAK OVERRUNNING, BUT LIFT APPEARS TOO SHALLOW
TO YIELD MUCH MORE THAN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAINLY WEST OF I-95.
ACCORDINGLY, HV GONE DRY FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS THU MANLY FM THE MID
70S TO ARND 80.

AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPR TROUGH RACING EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL DIG E-SE ACROSS THROUGH THE MIDWEST/TN VLY THU NGT AND
FRIDAY. E-SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCRSG MOISTURE AND OVC CONDITIONS
THU NGT AND FRIDAY AND SOME ISOLD SHRAS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING
STRONG CDFNT SHOULD REMAIN JUST W OF THE FA FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI
FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES AS OF 01/0730Z ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF
SCNTRL VA FROM GENERALLY KAKQ-KFKN-KEMV...WHERE AREAS OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR TO MVFR ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND UP INTO THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS OF 5-10KT
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSHPERE MIXED...THUS
PREVENTING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SCT LOW
STRATUS. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE 01/1300-1400Z. DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY BREAKS IN
STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING TO FILL BACK IN BY THIS AFTN. LATE DAY
CLEARING IS EXPECTED JUST BEFORE SUNSET...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
INFLUX OF CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT (CIGS ABOVE 8 KFT AGL). DRY
WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. STRENGTHENING WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FROPA SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.


&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA AND THEN NE ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N OR NE
AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SWAN GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO
AROUND 5FT NEAR 20NM MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WAVEWATCH. DUE TO WEAK
CAA AND A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...HAVE KEPT 5FT SEAS JUST BEYOND THE 20NM MARK FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THEREFORE NO SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES
INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS THEN QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRI INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY MCLR TO PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA THIS EVE AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE...BUT WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD...WITH A LESSER PROB FARTHER
NE (IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPR SYS). LO TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE
FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY MCLR TO PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA THIS EVE AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE...BUT WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD...WITH A LESSER PROB FARTHER
NE (IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPR SYS). LO TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE
FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
847 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
847 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMBO OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANTHR NITE OF IFR STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR KECG/KORF
WHERE WINDS ~5KT WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVRF. STRATUS/FOG WILL
DISSIPATE/LIFT WEST TO EAST WED MORNING AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR/DAP
MARINE...JDM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301942
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM
























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301942
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ST HAS RMND STUBBORN OVR MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO MID
THIS AFTN WHILE ERN AREAS HAVE HAD SCT CLDNS. CONTD DISSIPATION OF
THE ST XPCD INTO THIS EVE...LEADING TO MNLY PCLDY CONDS OVR THE FA
INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. UPR LVL LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS PA
TNGT...PUSHING ITS ACCOMPANYING CDFNT CLOSER TO THE FA FM THE NNW.
XPCG ANY PCPN FOR THAT SYS TO BE LIMITED TO FAR NNE AREAS OF FA
(AFT MDNGT). OTRW...ANOTHER NGT OF ST/FG DEVELOPMENT XPCD AFT
MDNGT...THOUGH UNCERTAIN OF AMT OF COVERAGE. LO TEMPS TNGT WILL
RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL CONT E ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST INTO
WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST AREA
WITH BKN CLDNS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). AFT ANY MRNG ST/FG...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. HI TEMPS FM
THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BUILDS SWD INTO THE REGION LATER WED NGT
THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
CONT TO SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROB FOR (ISLTD)
THU...ALONG WITH VRB CLDS. MAINLY PRTLY CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO
TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS ON
THU MANLY FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

A POTENT UPR LVL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES/CDFNT
(EXTENDING S TO ERN TX) WILL BE DIVING ESE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THU NGT. THAT SYS WILL APPROACH THE MDATLC RGN ON FRI. AHEAD OF
IT...SSE WNDS BRING INCRSG MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN VRB CLDS
TO MCLDY CONDS AND PSBL ISOLD SHRAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED W/ THE APPROACHING CDFNT XPCD TO RMN JUST W OF THE FA
THROUGH FRI AFTN. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M/U70S ON THE ERN SHR TO L80S
ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NE
INTO SE CANADA ON SUNDAY. STRONG JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FROPA AND WILL CARRY HIGH LIKELY
POPS. STRONG FORCING BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND 12Z SAT...SHOWER CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WILL
LIMIT SHWR CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR DRY WX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
SATURDAY 70-75. COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 65-70. HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY
70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PA
TONIGHT...THEN NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED...BEFORE PUSHING
WELL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS THRU THURSDAY WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE N OR NE AOB 15KT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. GUIDANCE BUILDS
SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE HELD
OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING
MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE S-SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW
POST-FRONT SATURDAY AFTN. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JDM























000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL SWING ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST TNGT
INTO WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST
AREA WITH BKN CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS TO PRTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS
TNGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON WED
WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BLDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER WED
NGT THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROBABILITY FOR ISLTD
SHOWERS (THU MORNG) ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. MAINLY PRTLY
CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL SWING ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST TNGT
INTO WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST
AREA WITH BKN CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS TO PRTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS
TNGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON WED
WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BLDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER WED
NGT THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROBABILITY FOR ISLTD
SHOWERS (THU MORNG) ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. MAINLY PRTLY
CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN IS KEEPING
THE SC DECK (ARND 2K FT) IN TACT WHILE ONLY SCT SC NOTED ALONG
THE COAST. SUN IS SLOWLY ERODING THE EDGES OF THE SC DECK BUT IT
MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HRS FOR IT TO SCT OUT AT RIC. OTW...COMBO OF
THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT LL MSTR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANTHR NITE FOR STRATUS / FOG TO DVLP. APPEARS PIEDMONT AND INLAND
SCTNS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHORE AS MODELS POINT TO SOME IFR FOG LATE
NITE / WED MORN THERE. ADDED A PRD OF ST / BR TO RIC / SBY AS MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS WILL OCCUR. ONLY MVFR BR ADDED TO SERN
TAF SITES AS CONFIDENCE THERE NOT AS HIGH.

ST / FOG SLOWLY BURN OFF BY 15Z WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT PROGGED
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS XPCTD THRU FRI BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300846
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
446 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL SWING ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST TNGT
INTO WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST
AREA WITH BKN CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS TO PRTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS
TNGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON WED
WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BLDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER WED
NGT THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROBABILITY FOR ISLTD
SHOWERS (THU MORNG) ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. MAINLY PRTLY
CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300846
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
446 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES WILL SWING ACRS SRN ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST TNGT
INTO WED NGT...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED TROF SFC-ALOFT THRU THE FCST
AREA WITH BKN CLOUDINESS AND MAINLY SLGT CHC POPS (MAINLY NNE
PORTIONS). OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDS TO PRTLY CLOUDY. LO TEMPS
TNGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON WED
WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 70S ON THE ERN SHR...TO THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.

HI PRES FM NEW ENGLAND BLDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATER WED
NGT THRU THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENE WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE A LO PROBABILITY FOR ISLTD
SHOWERS (THU MORNG) ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS. MAINLY PRTLY
CLOUDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO
THE LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU WILL RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH
WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND
MNLY SLGT CHC POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO
PCLDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE
NC. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F
ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300825
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
425 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN WAS MOVNG OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND A TROF OF LO
PRES WILL FOLLOW OUT TO SEA DURING THIS MORNG. BUT...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU 8 OR 9 AM...DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND VRY LGT OR NO WIND. THE
REST OF TODAY...FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROF
SFC-ALOFT OFFSHR...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF PUSHING SE FM THE
GRT LKS. SKY SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SNY FOR LATER THIS
MORNG THRU THIS AFTN WITH LGT NE OR E WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 75
TO 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH
WED...PUSHING ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND
MNLY SLGT CHC POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO
PCLDY. LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE
NC. HI TEMPS WED FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F
ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT LGT N-NW WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-4 FT LATE
TONIGHT/ERY WED, HIGHEST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. NE WINDS REMAIN
SUB-SCA WED/THU, THOUGH NWPS/WAVEWATCH BOTH INCREASE SEAS INTO SCA
RANGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HV HELD OFF WITH SCA FLAGS FOR THE MOMENT
WITH CONDITIONS STILL APPEARING MARGINAL ATTM. WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE S-SW FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WHICH CROSSES INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE NW POST-FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LCL LIFR ACROSS PIEDMONT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH LOW END
VFR/MVFR ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH CLEARING
BEGINNING INLAND, EXPECT IFR AT RIC, WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR AFTER
09Z-13Z. FARTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER THROUGH 07-09Z AT
ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIG/VSBY AS
CLEARING ENSUES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...LSA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES EAST OF
KRIC. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-
13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KRIC AROUND 08Z
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXPECT KORF.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...LSA






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS EVE...AND AN AREA OF -RA/DZ HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD...RESIDING FROM THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN
SHORE AS OF 10 PM. HIGHEST POPS (30-50%) TO RMN OVER
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH MDNGT...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON.
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT
MDNGT...BRINGING A GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY
CLEARING BEHIND THIS SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED AREAS OF FG FOR THE
PIEDMONT...AND PATCHY FG I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW
TEMPS FM THE M/U50S NW TO 60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF
MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES EAST OF
KRIC. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-
13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KRIC AROUND 08Z
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXPECT KORF.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...LSA





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
850 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES EAST OF
KRIC. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-
13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KRIC AROUND 08Z
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXPECT KORF.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...LSA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
850 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES EAST OF
KRIC. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 08Z-
13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KRIC AROUND 08Z
AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXPECT KORF.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/DAP
MARINE...LSA







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...LSA









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A
CONTINUATION OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE 50 PERCENT CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING WESTERN
PORTIONS FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT BUT
AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT INCREASES...FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL
PROBABLY HAVE LIKELY POPS. CURRENTLY WPC HAS ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH QPF WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE PCPN PROBABLY LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS AT ANY LOCATION.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 INLAND AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT ON
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPR 60S. LOWS IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE UPR 40S TO
MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE PROVIDING QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. N/NE WINDS INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
THE OUTER PORTION OF THE COASTAL ZONES. WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...LSA








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...JDM/LSA





































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291902
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA COVERED IN CLDNS THIS AFTN...AND AREA OF RA HAS SLOWED ITS
PROGRESS EWD. HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) TO RMN AWAY FM THE CST INTO
EARLY THIS EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING E LATER ON. TROUGH OF LO PRES
SFC-ALOFT WILL BE SLO TO EXIT THE CST AFT MDNGT...BRINGING A
GRADUAL END OF PCPN FM W-E. ALSO SLOWED ANY CLEARING BEHIND THIS
SYS AFT MDNGT...AND ADDED PATCHY FG. LOW TEMPS FM THE L/M50S NW TO
60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. ADDITIONAL QPF MNLY AVGG 1/10TH INCH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING TROUGH SFC-ALOFT
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP EVENTUALLY WELL E AND S OF THE FA BY
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS)...AND A STRONGER UPR LVL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA
(EARLY) TUE MRNG. HAVE POPS AOB 14% MOST PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING
JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL NE NC. XPCG P/MSNY CONDS N
AND CNTRL...TO P/MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ BKN CLDNS AND MNLY SLGT CHC
POPS (AND MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY. LO TEMPS
TUE NGT FM THE M50S INLAND TO L60S CSTL SE VA/NE NC. HI TEMPS WED
FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

HI PRES FM NEW ENG BUILDS SWWD INTO THE FA WED NGT INTO
THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF ENE WNDS. MDLS SUGGEST THAT
INLAND PLACES HAVE LO PROB FOR ISOLD SHRAS (THU) ALONG W/ VRB
CLDS. MNLY PCLDY TWD THE CST. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS THU FM THE M/U70S N...TO ARND 80F S (THOUGH L70S
XPCD RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE CST).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JDM/TMG
MARINE...JDM/LSA




































000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
236 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.

BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291836
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
236 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.

BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE TAF SITES
AS IT DOES SO. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING RAIN IS LOWEST FOR KORF
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED PREDOMINATE -RA THERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. THE WEAK TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 08Z-13Z TUES WITH DRY WX RETURNING IN ITS WAKE. MAY SEE SOME
IFR FOG DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK.

DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291256
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
856 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.

BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG













000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291256
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
856 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH OF LO PRES SFC-ALOFT ENTERING RGN ATTM. -RA SPREADING NNE
INTO CNTRL VA RIGHT NOW...AND AS TROUGH SLIDES E...-RA XPCD TO
CONT/SPREAD E INTO THIS AFTN. MNLY FOLLOWED 11Z/29 RUC W/ PCPN
MOVEMENT INTO THIS AFTN...AND RAISED POPS MOST ERN PLACES (TO
40-60%). TEMPS TRICKY DUE TO CLDS AND LGT PCPN...MAY NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT (DOWN) IN NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS SHOULD TRENDS CONT. QPF
MNLY AOB 1/10TH INCH.

BY LT THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY EVE...WHILE THE AM PRECIP
AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20%
OR LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG












000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
539 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH SOME WEAK AREAS OF SFC TROUGHING FROM NEW ENGLAND WSW
INTO THE OH VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT SFC LOW RESIDES ACRS THE GULF
COAST. SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...BUT THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600-700 MB. RADAR SHOWING AN
AREA OF PRECIP BETWEEN KROA AND KDAN PUSHING E/NE WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER KY. GENLY THIS AREA OF PRECIP LOOKS MORE
IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR THAN REALITY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
LAYER (OBS AT KMTV SHOW CIGS AROUND 10 K FT). SOME OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT SHOWS THIS AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 12-15Z. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...WILL ONLY CARRY
CHC POPS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 DUE TO THE HIGH-BASED
CIGS...ALTHOUGH HAVE A SMALL REGION OF 60-70% POPS IN THE NEAR
TERM OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. FAIRLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
GENLY 0.10" OR LESS ANTICIPATED (WILL KEEP AREAS WELL E OF I-95 DRY
THROUGH THE MORNING).

BY THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE AM PRECIP AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY AND
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LWR-MID 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S FARTHER EAST.
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20% OR
LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
539 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH SOME WEAK AREAS OF SFC TROUGHING FROM NEW ENGLAND WSW
INTO THE OH VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT SFC LOW RESIDES ACRS THE GULF
COAST. SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...BUT THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600-700 MB. RADAR SHOWING AN
AREA OF PRECIP BETWEEN KROA AND KDAN PUSHING E/NE WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER KY. GENLY THIS AREA OF PRECIP LOOKS MORE
IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR THAN REALITY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
LAYER (OBS AT KMTV SHOW CIGS AROUND 10 K FT). SOME OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT SHOWS THIS AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 12-15Z. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...WILL ONLY CARRY
CHC POPS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 DUE TO THE HIGH-BASED
CIGS...ALTHOUGH HAVE A SMALL REGION OF 60-70% POPS IN THE NEAR
TERM OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. FAIRLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
GENLY 0.10" OR LESS ANTICIPATED (WILL KEEP AREAS WELL E OF I-95 DRY
THROUGH THE MORNING).

BY THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE AM PRECIP AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY AND
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LWR-MID 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S FARTHER EAST.
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGHEST CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20% OR
LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH SOME WEAK AREAS OF SFC TROUGHING FROM NEW ENGLAND WSW
INTO THE OH VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT SFC LOW RESIDES ACRS THE GULF
COAST. SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...BUT THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600-700 MB. RADAR SHOWING AN
AREA OF PRECIP BETWEEN KROA AND KDAN PUSHING E/NE WITH AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER KY. GENLY THIS AREA OF PRECIP LOOKS MORE
IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR THAN REALITY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
LAYER (OBS AT KMTV SHOW CIGS AROUND 10 K FT). SOME OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT SHOWS THIS AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 12-15Z. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...WILL ONLY CARRY
CHC POPS OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 DUE TO THE HIGH-BASED
CIGS...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS GENLY 0.10" OR LESS
ANTICIPATED (WILL KEEP AREAS E OF I-95 DRY THROUGH THE MORNING).

BY THIS AFTN...SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ENE AND ELONGATE INTO THE GULF STREAM ATLC WATERS OFF
THE SE COAST. THIS AREA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND WILL ACT TO LIMIT QPF ACRS THE
MID ATLC AND AREAS FARTHER N. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE AM PRECIP AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY AND
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LWR 70S WEST TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
THIS EVENING...WILL CONFINE HIGH CHC POPS TO THE SE...ONLY 20% OR
LESS FARTHER NW...CLEARING OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NW TO THE LWR 60S SE.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE EARLY MRNG). XPCG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N AND
CNTRL...TO PARTLY TO MCLDY SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU TUE NGT. A TROF OF LO PRES
WILL MOVE ACRS THE WTRS AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENG THRU TUE MORNG.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW OR N ARND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...N ARND 10 KT OR
LESS TNGT...THEN NE ARND 10 KT OR LESS TUE. A LO PRES SYSTEM WILL
THEN SWING THRU THE NE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NGT AND WED...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY THU MORNG. AS A RESULT...NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR LATE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING DURING THU. SEAS COULD REACH 4 TO 5 FT ON THE CSTL WTRS
BY WED MORNG...THEN WILL SUBSIDE LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290546
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE
CONUS. QUIET WX AGN THIS EVE AS CONSIDERABLE HI LVL CLDNS SPREADS
OVR THE RGN FM THE WSW. SOME INCRS IN CLDS XPCD INVOF CSTL
FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...THOUGH
ANY RA W/ THAT WILL RMN WELL SE OF THE FA. MDL SPREAD SPOTTY RA
INTO FAR SW VA AND ACRS WRN NC BY LT TNGT. OTRW...TURNING OUT
MCLDY OVR THE FA W/ LO TEMPS 55 TO 60F IN MOST PLACES. FOG PTNTL
LIKELY LIMITED OVR FAR WRN PORTIONS DUE TO INCRS CLDNS.
HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED FOR RURAL LOCATIONS FROM THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN SHORE AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
NOT BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVE. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE W-E AS CLOUDS THICKEN/LOWER LATE TNGT INTO
EARLY MON MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MDLS CONTG TO TREND FM 00Z/28 RUNS WRT WK SYS PASSING S OF THE RGN
LT MON INTO TUE. XPCG MCLDY CONDS TO PREVAIL MOST PLACES ON
MON...AND A LITTLE BIT OF RA TO ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO (MNLY SRN)
PORTIONS OF FA BY AFTN/EVE HRS. BULK OF FORCING NECESSARY FOR
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RA FCST TO PASS (WELL) S OF THE FA INTO
TUE. CONTD W/ PREV TRENDS IN FCST TO KEEP SLGT TO CHC POPS FM MON
AFTN/MON NGT...QPF XPCD TO BE MNLY BLO 0.10 INCH...AND CONFINED TO
ALG-S OF VA/NC BORDER. HI TEMPS MON FM THE L70S W...TO M/U70S ELSW.
LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE U50S TO L60S.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE MRNG). XPCG AT LEAST PSNY N AND CNTRL...TO MCLDY
SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISLTD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY THIS MORNG...OTHERWISE EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...DESPITE WEAK TROF
APPROACHING AND MOVNG ACRS THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING DEEPEST
LO LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SE STATES. SO...WILL
ONLY HAVE -RA WITH A VFR CIG IN ECG TAF. DRY WX IS THEN INDICATED
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BUT...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS ARND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT/WED...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NE 15-20 KT
THRU WED NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 5-6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY WED MORNING...THEN
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290123
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
923 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE
CONUS. QUIET WX AGN THIS EVE AS CONSIDERABLE HI LVL CLDNS SPREADS
OVR THE RGN FM THE WSW. SOME INCRS IN CLDS XPCD INVOF CSTL
FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...THOUGH
ANY RA W/ THAT WILL RMN WELL SE OF THE FA. MDL SPREAD SPOTTY RA
INTO FAR SW VA AND ACRS WRN NC BY LT TNGT. OTRW...TURNING OUT
MCLDY OVR THE FA W/ LO TEMPS 55 TO 60F IN MOST PLACES. FOG PTNTL
LIKELY LIMITED OVR FAR WRN PORTIONS DUE TO INCRS CLDNS.
HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED FOR RURAL LOCATIONS FROM THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ERN SHORE AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
NOT BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVE. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE W-E AS CLOUDS THICKEN/LOWER LATE TNGT INTO
EARLY MON MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MDLS CONTG TO TREND FM 00Z/28 RUNS WRT WK SYS PASSING S OF THE RGN
LT MON INTO TUE. XPCG MCLDY CONDS TO PREVAIL MOST PLACES ON
MON...AND A LITTLE BIT OF RA TO ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO (MNLY SRN)
PORTIONS OF FA BY AFTN/EVE HRS. BULK OF FORCING NECESSARY FOR
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RA FCST TO PASS (WELL) S OF THE FA INTO
TUE. CONTD W/ PREV TRENDS IN FCST TO KEEP SLGT TO CHC POPS FM MON
AFTN/MON NGT...QPF XPCD TO BE MNLY BLO 0.10 INCH...AND CONFINED TO
ALG-S OF VA/NC BORDER. HI TEMPS MON FM THE L70S W...TO M/U70S ELSW.
LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE U50S TO L60S.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE MRNG). XPCG AT LEAST PSNY N AND CNTRL...TO MCLDY
SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD IS AGAIN FOG FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. ECG/PHF WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG MVFR/IFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. A HINDRANCE FOR THIS WILL BE A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS
THAT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW HELPING TO DECREASE
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY
LOWER LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES COULD BRING SHOWERS
TO FAR SRN PORTIONS LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT/WED...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NE 15-20 KT
THRU WED NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 5-6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY WED MORNING...THEN
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...TMG






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282359
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
759 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE
CONUS. QUIET WX AGN THIS EVE AS CONSIDERABLE HI LVL CLDNS SPREADS
OVR THE RGN FM THE WSW. SOME INCRS IN CLDS XPCD INVOF CSTL
FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...THOUGH
ANY RA W/ THAT WILL RMN WELL SE OF THE FA. MDL SPREAD SPOTTY RA
INTO FAR SW VA AND ACRS WRN NC BY LT TNGT. OTRW...TURNING OUT
MCLDY OVR THE FA W/ LO TEMPS 55 TO 60F IN MOST PLACES. FOG PTNTL
LIKELY LIMITED DUE TO INCRS CLDNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MDLS CONTG TO TREND FM 00Z/28 RUNS WRT WK SYS PASSING S OF THE RGN
LT MON INTO TUE. XPCG MCLDY CONDS TO PREVAIL MOST PLACES ON
MON...AND A LITTLE BIT OF RA TO ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO (MNLY SRN)
PORTIONS OF FA BY AFTN/EVE HRS. BULK OF FORCING NECESSARY FOR
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RA FCST TO PASS (WELL) S OF THE FA INTO
TUE. CONTD W/ PREV TRENDS IN FCST TO KEEP SLGT TO CHC POPS FM MON
AFTN/MON NGT...QPF XPCD TO BE MNLY BLO 0.10 INCH...AND CONFINED TO
ALG-S OF VA/NC BORDER. HI TEMPS MON FM THE L70S W...TO M/U70S ELSW.
LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE U50S TO L60S.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE MRNG). XPCG AT LEAST PSNY N AND CNTRL...TO MCLDY
SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD IS AGAIN FOG FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. ECG/PHF WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG MVFR/IFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. A HINDRANCE FOR THIS WILL BE A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS
THAT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW HELPING TO DECREASE
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY
LOWER LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES COULD BRING SHOWERS
TO FAR SRN PORTIONS LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT/WED...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NE 15-20 KT
THRU WED NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 5-6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY WED MORNING...THEN
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282359
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
759 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE
CONUS. QUIET WX AGN THIS EVE AS CONSIDERABLE HI LVL CLDNS SPREADS
OVR THE RGN FM THE WSW. SOME INCRS IN CLDS XPCD INVOF CSTL
FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...THOUGH
ANY RA W/ THAT WILL RMN WELL SE OF THE FA. MDL SPREAD SPOTTY RA
INTO FAR SW VA AND ACRS WRN NC BY LT TNGT. OTRW...TURNING OUT
MCLDY OVR THE FA W/ LO TEMPS 55 TO 60F IN MOST PLACES. FOG PTNTL
LIKELY LIMITED DUE TO INCRS CLDNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MDLS CONTG TO TREND FM 00Z/28 RUNS WRT WK SYS PASSING S OF THE RGN
LT MON INTO TUE. XPCG MCLDY CONDS TO PREVAIL MOST PLACES ON
MON...AND A LITTLE BIT OF RA TO ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO (MNLY SRN)
PORTIONS OF FA BY AFTN/EVE HRS. BULK OF FORCING NECESSARY FOR
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RA FCST TO PASS (WELL) S OF THE FA INTO
TUE. CONTD W/ PREV TRENDS IN FCST TO KEEP SLGT TO CHC POPS FM MON
AFTN/MON NGT...QPF XPCD TO BE MNLY BLO 0.10 INCH...AND CONFINED TO
ALG-S OF VA/NC BORDER. HI TEMPS MON FM THE L70S W...TO M/U70S ELSW.
LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE U50S TO L60S.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE MRNG). XPCG AT LEAST PSNY N AND CNTRL...TO MCLDY
SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD IS AGAIN FOG FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. ECG/PHF WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG MVFR/IFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. A HINDRANCE FOR THIS WILL BE A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS
THAT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW HELPING TO DECREASE
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY
LOWER LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES COULD BRING SHOWERS
TO FAR SRN PORTIONS LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT/WED...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NE 15-20 KT
THRU WED NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 5-6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY WED MORNING...THEN
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE
CONUS. QUIET WX AGN THIS EVE AS CONSIDERABLE HI LVL CLDNS SPREADS
OVR THE RGN FM THE WSW. SOME INCRS IN CLDS XPCD INVOF CSTL
FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...THOUGH
ANY RA W/ THAT WILL RMN WELL SE OF THE FA. MDL SPREAD SPOTTY RA
INTO FAR SW VA AND ACRS WRN NC BY LT TNGT. OTRW...TURNING OUT
MCLDY OVR THE FA W/ LO TEMPS 55 TO 60F IN MOST PLACES. FOG PTNTL
LIKELY LIMITED DUE TO INCRS CLDNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MDLS CONTG TO TREND FM 00Z/28 RUNS WRT WK SYS PASSING S OF THE RGN
LT MON INTO TUE. XPCG MCLDY CONDS TO PREVAIL MOST PLACES ON
MON...AND A LITTLE BIT OF RA TO ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO (MNLY SRN)
PORTIONS OF FA BY AFTN/EVE HRS. BULK OF FORCING NECESSARY FOR
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT RA FCST TO PASS (WELL) S OF THE FA INTO
TUE. CONTD W/ PREV TRENDS IN FCST TO KEEP SLGT TO CHC POPS FM MON
AFTN/MON NGT...QPF XPCD TO BE MNLY BLO 0.10 INCH...AND CONFINED TO
ALG-S OF VA/NC BORDER. HI TEMPS MON FM THE L70S W...TO M/U70S ELSW.
LO TEMPS MON NGT FM THE U50S TO L60S.

FOR TUE...FA TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. NOT MUCH
FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FA. HAVE POPS BLO 14% MOST
PLACES...THOUGH MAINTAINING JUST A SLGT CHC POP ACRS FA SE VA/CSTL
NE NC (IN THE MRNG). XPCG AT LEAST PSNY N AND CNTRL...TO MCLDY
SE...W/ HI TEMPS MNLY 75 TO 80F.

UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NEW ENG TUE NGT THROUGH WED...PUSHING
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SFC-ALOFT ACRS FA W/ PSBL BKN CLDNS AND ONLY
SLGT CHC POPS (MNLY N AND E PORTIONS). OTRW VRB CLDS TO PCLDY...W/
HI TEMPS FM THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT DIGGING A POTENT UPPER LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND
FOR DRY WX. HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S...EXCEPT MID/UPR 60S MAY BE MORE PROMINENT BY NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THRU FRI NIGHT...THEN COOLING INTO THE 40S
TO MID 50S NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD IS AGAIN FOG FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. A HINDRANCE FOR THIS WILL BE A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT IS
ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. GUIDANCE AGAIN TRIES TO
PUT LIFR FOG IN SBY WHICH DID NOT WORK THIS MORNING. MOS ALSO HAS
LIFR IN THE FORECAST AT ECG. DECIDED TO LEAVE ORF WITH VFR AND THEN
MVFR AT THE REST EXCEPT IFR AT ECG. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES COULD BRING SHOWERS
TO FAR SRN PORTIONS LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS
TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT/WED...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WED NIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NE LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NE 15-20 KT
THRU WED NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON THURS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 5-6 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY WED MORNING...THEN
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG

















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE
CONUS. SIMILAR CONDS TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER VERY NICE
LT SEP DAY ON THE WAY TO CONCLUDE FIRST WKND OF FALL. BKN SC INVOF
SE VA SHOULD MIX OUT NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS...WHILE CI CONTS TO
SPREAD NE INTO THE RGN FM THE WSW. THAT CI WILL BE SPREADING
GRADUALLY OVR THE FA THIS AFTN...WHILE SOME INCRS IN CLDS OCCURS
INVOF CSTL FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. CONDS AVG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U70S
NR THE CST TO 80 TO 85F INLAND. WNDS RMNG LGT/VRB INLAND...MNLY NE
AT THE CST (SPEEDS ABOUT 5 MPH LWR THAN YESTERDAY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH IN THE
EVENING FOR TEMPS TO RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS 55-60 F MOST AREAS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO A POSITION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON
AFTN...THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND AS A RESULT IT SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL BE
RELYING ON SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
BREAK OUT ACRS WRN NC/SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY LATE MORNING...SLOWLY
SHIFTING ENE THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ON MON HAS
BEEN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. OVERRUNNING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE ACRS THE PIEDMONT (40-50%)...LOWEST OVER THE ERN SHORE
(20%). HIGHS MON WILL AVG IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST...TO THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 F ACRS THE EAST (STAYED COOLER THAN MAV BUT A TAD
WARMER THAN MET NUMBERS).

MON NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE FAR SE AS WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES ALIGNED OFF THE SE
COAST AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SE...WITH LOW
CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. EVEN IN THE SE...QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT
(MAINLY 0.25" OR LESS). LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FAR NW TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUE...LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HAVE
DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN
JUST A CHC POP ACRS MAINLY SE VA/NE NC...AND 20% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (POSSIBLY MCDY SE).
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES...GENLY INTO THE UPPER 70S N TO LWR-
MID 70S FAR SOUTH (THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERED LOW END CHC POPS INTO WED. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN ORIENTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO
DIAGNOSE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW
PUSHING EAST ACRS PA/NJ ON WED WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY WED. HIGHEST POPS WILL
TEND TO STAY NE OFFSHORE WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT ULTIMATELY, POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REALIZED.
SURFACE WEDGE IS EVENTUALLY BROKEN BY LATER WED/ERY THU, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW EARLY ON. TEMPS
MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT, WHICH
ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD IS AGAIN FOG FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. A HINDRANCE FOR THIS WILL BE A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT IS
ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. GUIDANCE AGAIN TRIES TO
PUT LIFR FOG IN SBY WHICH DID NOT WORK THIS MORNING. MOS ALSO HAS
LIFR IN THE FORECAST AT ECG. DECIDED TO LEAVE ORF WITH VFR AND THEN
MVFR AT THE REST EXCEPT IFR AT ECG. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES COULD BRING SHOWERS
TO FAR SRN PORTIONS LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT...AND SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE. HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC REGION EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE EWRD AND
OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNG...WILL
BECOME E OR SE OR VRBL TNGT...THEN BECOME NNE ARND 10 KT OR LESS ON
MON. STRONGER NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU THU...AS LO
PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AND HI PRES TRIES TO BLD S FM
ERN CANADA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT INTO THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE
CONUS. SIMILAR CONDS TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER VERY NICE
LT SEP DAY ON THE WAY TO CONCLUDE FIRST WKND OF FALL. BKN SC INVOF
SE VA SHOULD MIX OUT NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS...WHILE CI CONTS TO
SPREAD NE INTO THE RGN FM THE WSW. THAT CI WILL BE SPREADING
GRADUALLY OVR THE FA THIS AFTN...WHILE SOME INCRS IN CLDS OCCURS
INVOF CSTL FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. CONDS AVG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U70S
NR THE CST TO 80 TO 85F INLAND. WNDS RMNG LGT/VRB INLAND...MNLY NE
AT THE CST (SPEEDS ABOUT 5 MPH LWR THAN YESTERDAY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH IN THE
EVENING FOR TEMPS TO RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS 55-60 F MOST AREAS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO A POSITION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON
AFTN...THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND AS A RESULT IT SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL BE
RELYING ON SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
BREAK OUT ACRS WRN NC/SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY LATE MORNING...SLOWLY
SHIFTING ENE THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ON MON HAS
BEEN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. OVERRUNNING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE ACRS THE PIEDMONT (40-50%)...LOWEST OVER THE ERN SHORE
(20%). HIGHS MON WILL AVG IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST...TO THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 F ACRS THE EAST (STAYED COOLER THAN MAV BUT A TAD
WARMER THAN MET NUMBERS).

MON NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE FAR SE AS WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES ALIGNED OFF THE SE
COAST AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SE...WITH LOW
CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. EVEN IN THE SE...QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT
(MAINLY 0.25" OR LESS). LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FAR NW TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUE...LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HAVE
DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN
JUST A CHC POP ACRS MAINLY SE VA/NE NC...AND 20% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (POSSIBLY MCDY SE).
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES...GENLY INTO THE UPPER 70S N TO LWR-
MID 70S FAR SOUTH (THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERED LOW END CHC POPS INTO WED. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN ORIENTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO
DIAGNOSE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW
PUSHING EAST ACRS PA/NJ ON WED WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY WED. HIGHEST POPS WILL
TEND TO STAY NE OFFSHORE WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT ULTIMATELY, POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REALIZED.
SURFACE WEDGE IS EVENTUALLY BROKEN BY LATER WED/ERY THU, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW EARLY ON. TEMPS
MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT, WHICH
ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD IS AGAIN FOG FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. A HINDRANCE FOR THIS WILL BE A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT IS
ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. GUIDANCE AGAIN TRIES TO
PUT LIFR FOG IN SBY WHICH DID NOT WORK THIS MORNING. MOS ALSO HAS
LIFR IN THE FORECAST AT ECG. DECIDED TO LEAVE ORF WITH VFR AND THEN
MVFR AT THE REST EXCEPT IFR AT ECG. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES COULD BRING SHOWERS
TO FAR SRN PORTIONS LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER AREAS
OF FOG OR STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT...AND SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE. HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC REGION EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE EWRD AND
OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNG...WILL
BECOME E OR SE OR VRBL TNGT...THEN BECOME NNE ARND 10 KT OR LESS ON
MON. STRONGER NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU THU...AS LO
PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AND HI PRES TRIES TO BLD S FM
ERN CANADA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT INTO THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281426
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE
CONUS. SIMILAR CONDS TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER VERY NICE
LT SEP DAY ON THE WAY TO CONCLUDE FIRST WKND OF FALL. BKN SC INVOF
SE VA SHOULD MIX OUT NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS...WHILE CI CONTS TO
SPREAD NE INTO THE RGN FM THE WSW. THAT CI WILL BE SPREADING
GRADUALLY OVR THE FA THIS AFTN...WHILE SOME INCRS IN CLDS OCCURS
INVOF CSTL FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. CONDS AVG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U70S
NR THE CST TO 80 TO 85F INLAND. WNDS RMNG LGT/VRB INLAND...MNLY NE
AT THE CST (SPEEDS ABOUT 5 MPH LWR THAN YESTERDAY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH IN THE
EVENING FOR TEMPS TO RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS 55-60 F MOST AREAS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO A POSITION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON
AFTN...THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND AS A RESULT IT SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL BE
RELYING ON SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
BREAK OUT ACRS WRN NC/SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY LATE MORNING...SLOWLY
SHIFTING ENE THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ON MON HAS
BEEN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. OVERRUNNING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE ACRS THE PIEDMONT (40-50%)...LOWEST OVER THE ERN SHORE
(20%). HIGHS MON WILL AVG IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST...TO THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 F ACRS THE EAST (STAYED COOLER THAN MAV BUT A TAD
WARMER THAN MET NUMBERS).

MON NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE FAR SE AS WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES ALIGNED OFF THE SE
COAST AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SE...WITH LOW
CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. EVEN IN THE SE...QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT
(MAINLY 0.25" OR LESS). LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FAR NW TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUE...LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HAVE
DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN
JUST A CHC POP ACRS MAINLY SE VA/NE NC...AND 20% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (POSSIBLY MCDY SE).
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES...GENLY INTO THE UPPER 70S N TO LWR-
MID 70S FAR SOUTH (THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERED LOW END CHC POPS INTO WED. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN ORIENTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO
DIAGNOSE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW
PUSHING EAST ACRS PA/NJ ON WED WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY WED. HIGHEST POPS WILL
TEND TO STAY NE OFFSHORE WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT ULTIMATELY, POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REALIZED.
SURFACE WEDGE IS EVENTUALLY BROKEN BY LATER WED/ERY THU, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW EARLY ON. TEMPS
MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT, WHICH
ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES...STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS STATES ESE
INTO THE NE U.S. AND NRN MID ATLC EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE
EWRD AND OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. ENUF LO LVL MOIST WILL STILL
PRODUCE PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/ECG
AND POSSIBLY SBY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY/MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO MON MORNG ACRS THE AREA. A TROF OF LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUE MORNG...AND COULD BRING
LWR CIGS/VSBYS AND A CHC FOR RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT...AND SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE. HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC REGION EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE EWRD AND
OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNG...WILL
BECOME E OR SE OR VRBL TNGT...THEN BECOME NNE ARND 10 KT OR LESS ON
MON. STRONGER NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU THU...AS LO
PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AND HI PRES TRIES TO BLD S FM
ERN CANADA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT INTO THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281426
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1026 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES RMNS IN CONTROL FM THE MIDWEST TO THE MDATLC AND NE
CONUS. SIMILAR CONDS TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER VERY NICE
LT SEP DAY ON THE WAY TO CONCLUDE FIRST WKND OF FALL. BKN SC INVOF
SE VA SHOULD MIX OUT NEXT COUPLE/FEW HRS...WHILE CI CONTS TO
SPREAD NE INTO THE RGN FM THE WSW. THAT CI WILL BE SPREADING
GRADUALLY OVR THE FA THIS AFTN...WHILE SOME INCRS IN CLDS OCCURS
INVOF CSTL FNT/INVERTED TROUGH ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. CONDS AVG OUT P/MSNY OVR THE FA...W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U70S
NR THE CST TO 80 TO 85F INLAND. WNDS RMNG LGT/VRB INLAND...MNLY NE
AT THE CST (SPEEDS ABOUT 5 MPH LWR THAN YESTERDAY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH IN THE
EVENING FOR TEMPS TO RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS 55-60 F MOST AREAS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO A POSITION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON
AFTN...THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND AS A RESULT IT SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL BE
RELYING ON SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
BREAK OUT ACRS WRN NC/SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY LATE MORNING...SLOWLY
SHIFTING ENE THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ON MON HAS
BEEN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. OVERRUNNING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE ACRS THE PIEDMONT (40-50%)...LOWEST OVER THE ERN SHORE
(20%). HIGHS MON WILL AVG IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST...TO THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 F ACRS THE EAST (STAYED COOLER THAN MAV BUT A TAD
WARMER THAN MET NUMBERS).

MON NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE FAR SE AS WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES ALIGNED OFF THE SE
COAST AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SE...WITH LOW
CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. EVEN IN THE SE...QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT
(MAINLY 0.25" OR LESS). LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FAR NW TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUE...LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HAVE
DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN
JUST A CHC POP ACRS MAINLY SE VA/NE NC...AND 20% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (POSSIBLY MCDY SE).
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES...GENLY INTO THE UPPER 70S N TO LWR-
MID 70S FAR SOUTH (THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERED LOW END CHC POPS INTO WED. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN ORIENTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO
DIAGNOSE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW
PUSHING EAST ACRS PA/NJ ON WED WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY WED. HIGHEST POPS WILL
TEND TO STAY NE OFFSHORE WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT ULTIMATELY, POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REALIZED.
SURFACE WEDGE IS EVENTUALLY BROKEN BY LATER WED/ERY THU, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW EARLY ON. TEMPS
MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT, WHICH
ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES...STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS STATES ESE
INTO THE NE U.S. AND NRN MID ATLC EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE
EWRD AND OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. ENUF LO LVL MOIST WILL STILL
PRODUCE PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/ECG
AND POSSIBLY SBY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY/MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO MON MORNG ACRS THE AREA. A TROF OF LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUE MORNG...AND COULD BRING
LWR CIGS/VSBYS AND A CHC FOR RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT...AND SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE. HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC REGION EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE EWRD AND
OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNG...WILL
BECOME E OR SE OR VRBL TNGT...THEN BECOME NNE ARND 10 KT OR LESS ON
MON. STRONGER NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU THU...AS LO
PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AND HI PRES TRIES TO BLD S FM
ERN CANADA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT INTO THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG

















000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
455 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NE AND MID ATLC STATES. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS OVER
NEVADA...WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER IOWA.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG UNDER
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. GENLY
THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN TOO WIDESPREAD/DENSE. CONTINUED NICE WX TODAY...SOME
INCRS IN CLOUDS IS XPCD THIS AFTN AS A CSTL FNT (INVERTED TROUGH)
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BUT CONDS STILL AVG
OUT PARTLY SUNNY (AT WORST) THERE (AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE).
HIGHS AVG IN THE U70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE L80S (WELL) INLAND.

INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH IN THE
EVENING FOR TEMPS TO RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS 55-60 F MOST AREAS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO A POSITION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON
AFTN...THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND AS A RESULT IT SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL BE
RELYING ON SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
BREAK OUT ACRS WRN NC/SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY LATE MORNING...SLOWLY
SHIFTING ENE THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ON MON HAS
BEEN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. OVERRUNNING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE ACRS THE PIEDMONT (40-50%)...LOWEST OVER THE ERN SHORE
(20%). HIGHS MON WILL AVG IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST...TO THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 F ACRS THE EAST (STAYED COOLER THAN MAV BUT A TAD
WARMER THAN MET NUMBERS).

MON NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE FAR SE AS WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES ALIGNED OFF THE SE
COAST AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SE...WITH LOW
CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. EVEN IN THE SE...QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT
(MAINLY 0.25" OR LESS). LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FAR NW TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUE...LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HAVE
DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN
JUST A CHC POP ACRS MAINLY SE VA/NE NC...AND 20% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (POSSIBLY MCDY SE).
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES...GENLY INTO THE UPPER 70S N TO LWR-
MID 70S FAR SOUTH (THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERED LOW END CHC POPS INTO WED. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN ORIENTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO
DIAGNOSE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW
PUSHING EAST ACRS PA/NJ ON WED WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY WED. HIGHEST POPS WILL
TEND TO STAY NE OFFSHORE WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT ULTIMATELY, POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REALIZED.
SURFACE WEDGE IS EVENTUALLY BROKEN BY LATER WED/ERY THU, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW EARLY ON. TEMPS
MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT, WHICH
ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES...STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS STATES ESE
INTO THE NE U.S. AND NRN MID ATLC EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE
EWRD AND OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. ENUF LO LVL MOIST WILL STILL
PRODUCE PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/ECG
AND POSSIBLY SBY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY/MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO MON MORNG ACRS THE AREA. A TROF OF LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUE MORNG...AND COULD BRING
LWR CIGS/VSBYS AND A CHC FOR RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT...AND SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE. HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC REGION EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE EWRD AND
OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNG...WILL
BECOME E OR SE OR VRBL TNGT...THEN BECOME NNE ARND 10 KT OR LESS ON
MON. STRONGER NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU THU...AS LO
PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AND HI PRES TRIES TO BLD S FM
ERN CANADA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT INTO THU.



&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280855
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
455 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NE AND MID ATLC STATES. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS OVER
NEVADA...WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER IOWA.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...PATCHY FOG UNDER
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. GENLY
THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN TOO WIDESPREAD/DENSE. CONTINUED NICE WX TODAY...SOME
INCRS IN CLOUDS IS XPCD THIS AFTN AS A CSTL FNT (INVERTED TROUGH)
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BUT CONDS STILL AVG
OUT PARTLY SUNNY (AT WORST) THERE (AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE).
HIGHS AVG IN THE U70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE L80S (WELL) INLAND.

INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY
THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH IN THE
EVENING FOR TEMPS TO RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT QUITE AS
COOL AS PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS 55-60 F MOST AREAS. SHOULD ALSO
SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO A POSITION ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY MON
AFTN...THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND AS A RESULT IT SHOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. WILL BE
RELYING ON SOME MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
BREAK OUT ACRS WRN NC/SOUTH CENTRAL VA BY LATE MORNING...SLOWLY
SHIFTING ENE THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ON MON HAS
BEEN EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. OVERRUNNING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE ACRS THE PIEDMONT (40-50%)...LOWEST OVER THE ERN SHORE
(20%). HIGHS MON WILL AVG IN THE LOWER 70S FAR WEST...TO THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 F ACRS THE EAST (STAYED COOLER THAN MAV BUT A TAD
WARMER THAN MET NUMBERS).

MON NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE FAR SE AS WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES ALIGNED OFF THE SE
COAST AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TO MAINTAIN SOME
CONTINUITY WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SE...WITH LOW
CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. EVEN IN THE SE...QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT
(MAINLY 0.25" OR LESS). LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FAR NW TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUE...LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE (SHUNTING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NC)...AND A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NOT MUCH FORCING WILL REMAIN ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HAVE
DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL MAINTAIN
JUST A CHC POP ACRS MAINLY SE VA/NE NC...AND 20% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. SKIES SHOULD AVG OUT PARTLY SUNNY (POSSIBLY MCDY SE).
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES...GENLY INTO THE UPPER 70S N TO LWR-
MID 70S FAR SOUTH (THIS IS STILL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERED LOW END CHC POPS INTO WED. SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN ORIENTING ANOTHER DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW MOVING NE ALONG IT. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. STILL A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING TO
DIAGNOSE THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW
PUSHING EAST ACRS PA/NJ ON WED WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
THE MID ATLC/SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE DAY WED. HIGHEST POPS WILL
TEND TO STAY NE OFFSHORE WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT ULTIMATELY, POPS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT CAN BE REALIZED.
SURFACE WEDGE IS EVENTUALLY BROKEN BY LATER WED/ERY THU, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TEMPS, HV KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CONSIDERING
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW EARLY ON. TEMPS
MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THU/FRI AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT, WHICH
ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES...STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS STATES ESE
INTO THE NE U.S. AND NRN MID ATLC EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE
EWRD AND OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. ENUF LO LVL MOIST WILL STILL
PRODUCE PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT PHF/ECG
AND POSSIBLY SBY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY/MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO MON MORNG ACRS THE AREA. A TROF OF LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUE MORNG...AND COULD BRING
LWR CIGS/VSBYS AND A CHC FOR RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU MON NGT...AND SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE. HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE GRT LKS
ESE INTO THE MID ATLC REGION EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL SLIDE EWRD AND
OFF THE CST TODAY AND TNGT. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THIS MORNG...WILL
BECOME E OR SE OR VRBL TNGT...THEN BECOME NNE ARND 10 KT OR LESS ON
MON. STRONGER NE OR N WINDS THEN EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU THU...AS LO
PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC CST...AND HI PRES TRIES TO BLD S FM
ERN CANADA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NGT INTO THU.



&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG







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