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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT PER CRNT TRENDS. PCPN NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
RGN SO DROPPED POPS ACROSS NE NC ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. MSAS
INDCTG SFC BNDRY LCTD ACROSS SERN VA SNAKING ITS WAY SW INTO THE
NC PIEDMONT. HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT 20-30 POP THERE...
HIGHEST IVOF ALREMARLE SND. CDFRNT REMAINS WELL NW OF FA TDY WITH
SFC TROF DVLMNG OUT AHEAD OF IT. LTST DATA SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SPRT FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S...XCPT U80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO 100.

PVS DSCN:
M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031111
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KECG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY
THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
AT KECG... OTHERWISE THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
633 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY, AS THE
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONT TODAY. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED BACK TOWARD THE
AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED POP UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE
RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF INCREASING CLDS/POSSIBLE TSRAS. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S
AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE/RH POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN 90-95...BUT WL FEEL A BIT HOTTER WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER U80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN AT
COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SS. MILD TUE
NIGHT W/LOWS U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED/THU, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC
POP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED
VERY WARM AND STILL MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ELEVATED EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
TOP OUT ~ 100 DEG F TUE/WED WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST RATIONALE IN EITHER THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM PERIOD. H5 UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER JAMES BAY. LEAD
UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG
TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL/SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN TO THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO, SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR SE THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE SHUNTED
BACK TOWARD THE AREA BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FROM FL/GA COAST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY
TODAY, A RESULT OF LLVL DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARM, DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED OUT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND HAVE
BUMPED UPWARD INTO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.

LLVL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE MODEST BUMP UPWARD, BUT DID TEMPER
THAT A BIT WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SE IN EXPECTATION
OF AFTN CONVECTION. HIGHS L-M90S...EXCEPT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES.

M CLR TO PT CLOUDY TONIGHT. WEAK SHEAR AND BEST FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SS. LOWS U60S-L70S EXCEPT
M70S BEACH AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ERN TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT MORE TO ALLOW THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO DROP ACROSS THE FA FROM THE N. BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, LLVL CONVERGENCE,
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ALL SEEM TO POINT TOWARD SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE NRN
NECK AND ERN SHORE, WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTW, WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SE FARTHER AWAY FROM BETTER FORCING
AND LIFT. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS 90-95...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER M-U80S COASTAL/BEACH AREAS. ANY CONVECTION
DISSIPATES AFTER SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT U60S-M70S.

BOUNDARY WASHES OUT / DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION WED, AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POP
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, AS ADDITIONAL
WEAK PERTURBATIONS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED VERY WARM
AND MODERATELY HUMID WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD TOP OUT ~ 100
DEG F WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. PREDOMINANTLY S-SW WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AOB 15 KT...BECOMING MORE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN.
LOW-END SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER...PERSISTING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL WATERS.
1-2 FT WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING...AND 2-3 FT SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 15 KT
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY AFTN.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS. BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY...
BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS
2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES NEAR 20 NM).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NC EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE SHUNTED SWD THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE W-NW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTN. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AT KECG... OTHERWISE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL BE DRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MERGE WITH
THE INCOMING FRONT AND DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.
BREEZY SW WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY... BECOMING MORE W-NW AND LIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THU/FRI AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS RAISED FOR LATE AFTN INTO TUE
MORNING FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO THE VA/NC BORDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLY WINDS ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE
BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES THEN
APPROACHES FM THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE
DAY. SCA CONDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND
LATE AFTN MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
AND 15-25 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS
SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS
TO THE REGION LATE TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ656.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVERGENCE INVOF LO LVL BNDRY INVOF ALBEMARLE SOUND AND JUST OFF
THE CST OF CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING
PAST COUPLE HRS. LIMITED MOVEMENT N IS XPCD NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...WILL HOLD ONTO 20-40% POPS INVOF COUNTIES NR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND/CURRITUCK SND AND OCN UNTIL ABT MIDNGT. OTRW...ITS BEEN A
ANOTHER PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE...AND WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET/RATHER
COMFORTABLE OVRNGT W/ MNLY SKC. FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE (INLAND)
LAST NGT...WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OVRNGT. L/M60S WELL INLAND
TO L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030049
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TSTMS JUST S OF ECG IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AT 2330Z WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND DIRECTIONS THAT ARE FROM NE
WILL GO AROUND TO SE/S OVERNIGHT. FOG LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GO CALM. BOUNDARY
LAYER DRYNESS WILL INHIBIT FOG AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS TURN TO S/SW
ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 022109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION FM EARLIER THIS AFTN IN SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. POPS AOB
14% FOR REST OF THE EVE/OVRNGT. MOSTLY SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS
SFC HI PRES RMNS OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL KEEP LOW CHC FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION GOING ACROSS SERN VA
AND NE NC THRU 00Z. OTW...MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AS HIGH PRS REMAINS
OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE..MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
WILL KEEP LOW CHC FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION GOING ACROSS SERN VA
AND NE NC THRU 00Z. OTW...MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY AS HIGH PRS REMAINS
OVR THE RGN. LOWS M60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A
LEE TROF PROGGED IN ADVANCE OF APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY WITH ANTHR WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY ACROSS NC. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF INSTAB SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER ENUF MSTR / WND CONVERGENCE
SEEN TO KEEP ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.
H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS L-M90S XPCT M-U80S AT THE BEACHES. M CLR TO PT
CLDY MON NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTION DSPTG AFTR SS. LOWS U60S-L70S
XCPT M70S BEACH AREAS.

ERN TROF SHARPENS ENUF TO ALLOW THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TO ENTER THE
FA FROM THE N. BEST MSTR AND INSTAB SPRT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP PROGGED ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE WHERE CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. OTW...SLGHT CHC AS BNDRY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RGN. STILL
ABOVE NRML WITH H85 TMPS SPRTG HIGHS 90-95...XCPT M-U80S BEACH AREAS
BEFORE ANY CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION DSPTS AFTR SS. LOWS TUE NIGHT
U60S-M70S.

BNDRY WASHES OUT / DSPTS ACROSS THE REGION WED. STILL ENUF SPRT FOR
ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS U80S-L90S.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THRU WED TOP OUT ARND 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS INTERION SERN VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH SLIGHTLY
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG THRU SAT...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH
NIGHT/MORNG. PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN
CONUS WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S THUR
TO LO/MID 80S SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN WITH SEABREEZES NR THE CST.
WINDS BCM SLY AFTR MIDNITE ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND
2-3 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS. A WEAK TROF LO PRES THEN APPROACHES FM
THE NW MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU THE DAY. SCA CONDS WILL
COMMENCE OVER THE BAY AND NRN CSTL WTRS AROUND LATE AFTN MON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS OVER
THE BAY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH 4-5 FT SEAS AND 15-25 KT WINDS
OVER CSTL WTRS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SEAS SHOULD DROP BLO 5 FT BY
MIDDAY/AFTN TUE. WEAK SFC HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE TUE
THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE..MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL NUDGE IN FM THE W THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALNG THE NC CST THIS AFTN INTO MON.
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION COULD PRODUCE ISLTD
SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR SE VA (KORF) AND NE NC (KECG) THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY THIS EVENG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO
MON AFTN...WITH JUST SCTD CU/AC/CI AND WINDS TURNING FM THE NE TO
THE SSW.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FM THE NW MON NGT...THEN SLOWLY
DROPS ACRS THE REGION TUE INTO WED MORNG. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE
SML CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENG SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021351
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CI MOVG ACROSS THE FA ATTM SHOULD THIN THIS AFTRN AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTS ISLTD
CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG SEA BREEZES TDY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN
SHORE. THUS...KEPT THE ISLTD POPS ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC BUT ADDED
ISLTD POPS TO THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR A FEW HRS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...MSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS U80S-L90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SFC TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM S MD
TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND. SCT SHRAS
WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT HAVE SHOVED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE
REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN SHORE. ALSO NOTING SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE ALBEMARLE AND INTO FAR SE
VA THIS MORNING. THE FOG REMAINS RATHER SPARSE PER VDOT CAMERAS,
AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
BUILD EAST FROM THE OH VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, PW VALUES PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS REPRESENT VALUES THAT ARE ~1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A LID
ON ANY SMALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA
ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE
NC) THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE AND OUR GOING FORECAST. THEREFORE, ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO FORECAST MAXIMA TODAY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST SECTIONS UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
619 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, SFC TROUGH NOW IN PLACE FROM S MD
TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND. SCT SHRAS
WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT HAVE SHOVED WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE
REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN SHORE. ALSO NOTING SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE ALBEMARLE AND INTO FAR SE
VA THIS MORNING. THE FOG REMAINS RATHER SPARSE PER VDOT CAMERAS,
AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
BUILD EAST FROM THE OH VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT, LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, PW VALUES PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS REPRESENT VALUES THAT ARE ~1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS, IN TANDEM WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP A LID
ON ANY SMALL RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA
ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE
NC) THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOS
GUIDANCE AND OUR GOING FORECAST. THEREFORE, ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO FORECAST MAXIMA TODAY...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST SECTIONS UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET NIGHT WXWISE TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
A MAINLY CLEAR AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
65-70 (SOME POCKETS OF L60S POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT WEST OF
RIC).

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL
FRONT TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS SAME PERIOD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN LOW TO MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING WELL TO
OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE SE
COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH MONDAY. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC
POP TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A
SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POP IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND
EVENING, AS WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR N/NE, WITH
PW REMAINING LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT
TO "BEST" LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(NRN NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30
POP IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20%
RANGE FOR NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S THU TO MID/UPR 80S FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE ACRS THE FA. VERY WK SFC TROUGH TO SLIDE
ACRS THE FA OVRNGT. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS INVOF PORTIONS OF THE ERN
SHR...OTRW DRY-SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT. LIMITED FG
PTNTL...THOUGH WILL COVER PSBLTY WNW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE
M-U60S...XCP L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC INVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE ACRS THE FA. VERY WK SFC TROUGH TO SLIDE
ACRS THE FA OVRNGT. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS INVOF PORTIONS OF THE ERN
SHR...OTRW DRY-SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT. LIMITED FG
PTNTL...THOUGH WILL COVER PSBLTY WNW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE
M-U60S...XCP L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC INVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020214
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1014 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PLEASANT MID SUMMER EVE ACRS THE FA. VERY WK SFC TROUGH TO SLIDE
ACRS THE FA OVRNGT. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS INVOF PORTIONS OF THE ERN
SHR...OTRW DRY-SKC TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVRNGT. LIMITED FG
PTNTL...THOUGH WILL COVER PSBLTY WNW OF RIC. LO TEMPS FM THE
M-U60S...XCP L70S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC IVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED SATURDAY AFTN MAINLY NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES. NO PCPN IS FORECAST IN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH A
SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS EXISTS SUNDAY AFTN AT ECG. FOG HAS BEEN SPARSE
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS AND NONE IS FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY TURN TO A NORTH OR NORTHEAST
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...ONLY A SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
818 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHWRS OVR ALBEMARLE SND HAVE DISSIPATED. SHWRS IVOF SFC T ROF
ACROSS MD XPCTD TO CONT INTO THE EVE.

WEAK SFC BNDRY / TROUGH PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRS OVR THE MTS. MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE MSTR ASSCTD
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE...MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE NRN NECK ON NE
ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE ISLTD SHWRS HAVE BEEN ADDED.
TMPS DROP NICELY GIVEN THE LWR DP TMPS. M CLR SOUTH TO PT CLDY
NORTH. NAM SUGGESTS SOME PTCHY FOG DVLPNG OVR THE NW PIEDMONT
AFTR MIDNIGHT MAINLY NW OF RIC. LOWS M-U60S W OF THE CHES BAY...
U60S- L70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC IVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED SATURDAY AFTN MAINLY NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES. NO PCPN IS FORECAST IN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH A
SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS EXISTS SUNDAY AFTN AT ECG. FOG HAS BEEN SPARSE
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS AND NONE IS FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY TURN TO A NORTH OR NORTHEAST
DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...ONLY A SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011946
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHWRS OVR ALBEMARLE SND HAVE DISSIPATED. SHWRS IVOF SFC T ROF
ACROSS MD XPCTD TO CONT INTO THE EVE.

WEAK SFC BNDRY / TROUGH PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRS OVR THE MTS. MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE MSTR ASSCTD
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE...MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE NRN NECK ON NE
ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE ISLTD SHWRS HAVE BEEN ADDED.
TMPS DROP NICELY GIVEN THE LWR DP TMPS. M CLR SOUTH TO PT CLDY
NORTH. NAM SUGGESTS SOME PTCHY FOG DVLPNG OVR THE NW PIEDMONT
AFTR MIDNIGHT MAINLY NW OF RIC. LOWS M-U60S W OF THE CHES BAY...
U60S- L70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC IVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT SE-SW WIND. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN
THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE BNDRY GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011946
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SHWRS OVR ALBEMARLE SND HAVE DISSIPATED. SHWRS IVOF SFC T ROF
ACROSS MD XPCTD TO CONT INTO THE EVE.

WEAK SFC BNDRY / TROUGH PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRS OVR THE MTS. MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE MSTR ASSCTD
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE...MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE NRN NECK ON NE
ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE WHERE ISLTD SHWRS HAVE BEEN ADDED.
TMPS DROP NICELY GIVEN THE LWR DP TMPS. M CLR SOUTH TO PT CLDY
NORTH. NAM SUGGESTS SOME PTCHY FOG DVLPNG OVR THE NW PIEDMONT
AFTR MIDNIGHT MAINLY NW OF RIC. LOWS M-U60S W OF THE CHES BAY...
U60S- L70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 RIDGE TO DOMINATE SUN AND MON BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKNESS ACROSS ERN NC IVOF ALBEMARLE SND THAT JUST MAY BE ENUF
TRIGGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS XTREME SERN VA / NE NC
SUN THEN EXPANDING A BIT TO THE SERN HALF OF FA MON. OTW...PT TO
MSTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS WITH ABOVE NRML TMPS. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS
SUN IN THE U80S-L90S WITH L-M90S MON. LOWS M60S-L70S.

MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT THE AVBL MSTR AND TIMING OF THE NXT FRNT
ACROSS THE RGN TUE. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR A DAYTIME FROPA WITH NOT
MUCH MSTR AVBL UNTIL AFTR 18Z...BUT BY THEN THE GREATEST SPRT FOR
CONVECTION TO DVLP SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NC. FOR NOW...KEPT SLGHT CHC
POPS IN GRIDS. ANTHR HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M90S.

GIVEN THE FCSTD DP TMPS...HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 BOTH
MON / TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT SE-SW WIND. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN
THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE BNDRY GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK FRNT/TROF OF LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE NW THIS AFTN/EVENG. A WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BLO SCA THRESHOLDS (~15 KT). THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS
INTO ERLY SUN...WITH WINDS SUN AOB 10 KT AND SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.
WAVES OVER THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS 2-3 FT. SLY FLOW
RETURNS BY MON...WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND
15-20 KT OVER CSTL WTRS. SEAS OVER NRN CSTL WTRS MAY APPROACH 5 FT
LATE IN THE DAY INTO MON NIGHT. WEAK HI PRES RETURNS TO THE REGION
TUE THRU WED WITH S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4
FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011754
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NEAR
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH ~1018MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VLY. ALOFT, EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

DESPITE THE UPR-LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
00Z/01 RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES PW VALUES ~1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
(0.82" WAL, 0.92 IAD, 0.67" RNK, 0.76" GSO) ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE W/SFC HI PRES TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALBEIT VERY WARM. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE WRT HIGHS, DEPICTING MAXIMA
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER BUILDS IN
FROM THE W. LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA W/SIMILAR TEMPS WITH THE SFC HI IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM ON SUNDAY, BUT ONLY OVER NE NC
WITH SOME SEABREEZE EFFECTS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA.
ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR TSRA MONDAY, AS SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW DROP FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS,
WILL KEEP POP IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ALSO RAMP UP ON MONDAY ON S/SW RETURN FLOW SETUP.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT SE-SW WIND. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN
THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE BNDRY GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING TURN BACK TO THE SSE BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE
AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVERAGE 1-2 FT IN
THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT
WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO
MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011754
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NEAR
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH ~1018MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VLY. ALOFT, EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

DESPITE THE UPR-LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
00Z/01 RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES PW VALUES ~1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
(0.82" WAL, 0.92 IAD, 0.67" RNK, 0.76" GSO) ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE W/SFC HI PRES TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALBEIT VERY WARM. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE WRT HIGHS, DEPICTING MAXIMA
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER BUILDS IN
FROM THE W. LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA W/SIMILAR TEMPS WITH THE SFC HI IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM ON SUNDAY, BUT ONLY OVER NE NC
WITH SOME SEABREEZE EFFECTS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA.
ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR TSRA MONDAY, AS SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW DROP FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS,
WILL KEEP POP IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ALSO RAMP UP ON MONDAY ON S/SW RETURN FLOW SETUP.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT SE-SW WIND. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN
THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE BNDRY GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING TURN BACK TO THE SSE BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE
AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVERAGE 1-2 FT IN
THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT
WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO
MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011754
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NEAR
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH ~1018MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VLY. ALOFT, EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

DESPITE THE UPR-LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
00Z/01 RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES PW VALUES ~1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
(0.82" WAL, 0.92 IAD, 0.67" RNK, 0.76" GSO) ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE W/SFC HI PRES TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALBEIT VERY WARM. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE WRT HIGHS, DEPICTING MAXIMA
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER BUILDS IN
FROM THE W. LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA W/SIMILAR TEMPS WITH THE SFC HI IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM ON SUNDAY, BUT ONLY OVER NE NC
WITH SOME SEABREEZE EFFECTS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA.
ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR TSRA MONDAY, AS SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW DROP FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS,
WILL KEEP POP IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ALSO RAMP UP ON MONDAY ON S/SW RETURN FLOW SETUP.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT SE-SW WIND. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN
THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE BNDRY GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING TURN BACK TO THE SSE BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE
AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVERAGE 1-2 FT IN
THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT
WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO
MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NEAR
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH ~1018MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VLY. ALOFT, EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

DESPITE THE UPR-LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
00Z/01 RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES PW VALUES ~1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
(0.82" WAL, 0.92 IAD, 0.67" RNK, 0.76" GSO) ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE W/SFC HI PRES TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALBEIT VERY WARM. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE WRT HIGHS, DEPICTING MAXIMA
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER BUILDS IN
FROM THE W. LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA W/SIMILAR TEMPS WITH THE SFC HI IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM ON SUNDAY, BUT ONLY OVER NE NC
WITH SOME SEABREEZE EFFECTS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA.
ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR TSRA MONDAY, AS SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW DROP FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS,
WILL KEEP POP IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ALSO RAMP UP ON MONDAY ON S/SW RETURN FLOW SETUP.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING TURN BACK TO THE SSE BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE
AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVERAGE 1-2 FT IN
THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT
WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO
MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NEAR
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH ~1018MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VLY. ALOFT, EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

DESPITE THE UPR-LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
00Z/01 RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES PW VALUES ~1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
(0.82" WAL, 0.92 IAD, 0.67" RNK, 0.76" GSO) ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE W/SFC HI PRES TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALBEIT VERY WARM. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE WRT HIGHS, DEPICTING MAXIMA
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER BUILDS IN
FROM THE W. LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA W/SIMILAR TEMPS WITH THE SFC HI IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM ON SUNDAY, BUT ONLY OVER NE NC
WITH SOME SEABREEZE EFFECTS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA.
ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR TSRA MONDAY, AS SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW DROP FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS,
WILL KEEP POP IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ALSO RAMP UP ON MONDAY ON S/SW RETURN FLOW SETUP.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING TURN BACK TO THE SSE BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE
AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVERAGE 1-2 FT IN
THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT
WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO
MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NEAR
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH ~1018MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VLY. ALOFT, EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

DESPITE THE UPR-LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
00Z/01 RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES PW VALUES ~1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL
(0.82" WAL, 0.92 IAD, 0.67" RNK, 0.76" GSO) ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE W/SFC HI PRES TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALBEIT VERY WARM. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE WRT HIGHS, DEPICTING MAXIMA
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER BUILDS IN
FROM THE W. LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA W/SIMILAR TEMPS WITH THE SFC HI IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM ON SUNDAY, BUT ONLY OVER NE NC
WITH SOME SEABREEZE EFFECTS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA.
ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR TSRA MONDAY, AS SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW DROP FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS,
WILL KEEP POP IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ALSO RAMP UP ON MONDAY ON S/SW RETURN FLOW SETUP.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING TURN BACK TO THE SSE BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE
AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVERAGE 1-2 FT IN
THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT
WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO
MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NEAR
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH ~1018MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VLY. ALOFT, EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

DESPITE THE UPR-LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
00Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES PW VALUES ~1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL (0.82"
WAL, 0.92 IAD, 0.67" RNK, 0.76" GSO) ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LACK
OF LLVL MOISTURE W/SFC HI PRES TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALBEIT VERY WARM. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE WRT HIGHS, DEPICTING MAXIMA IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER BUILDS IN
FROM THE W. LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA W/SIMILAR TEMPS WITH THE SFC HI IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM ON SUNDAY, BUT ONLY OVER NE NC
WITH SOME SEABREEZE EFFECTS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA.
ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR TSRA MONDAY, AS SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW DROP FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS,
WILL KEEP POP IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ALSO RAMP UP ON MONDAY ON S/SW RETURN FLOW SETUP.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING TURN BACK TO THE SSE BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE
AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVERAGE 1-2 FT IN
THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT
WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO
MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NEAR
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH ~1018MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VLY. ALOFT, EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

DESPITE THE UPR-LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
00Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES PW VALUES ~1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL (0.82"
WAL, 0.92 IAD, 0.67" RNK, 0.76" GSO) ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LACK
OF LLVL MOISTURE W/SFC HI PRES TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALBEIT VERY WARM. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE WRT HIGHS, DEPICTING MAXIMA IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER BUILDS IN
FROM THE W. LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA W/SIMILAR TEMPS WITH THE SFC HI IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM ON SUNDAY, BUT ONLY OVER NE NC
WITH SOME SEABREEZE EFFECTS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA.
ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR TSRA MONDAY, AS SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW DROP FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS,
WILL KEEP POP IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ALSO RAMP UP ON MONDAY ON S/SW RETURN FLOW SETUP.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING TURN BACK TO THE SSE BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE
AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVERAGE 1-2 FT IN
THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT
WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO
MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NEAR
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH ~1018MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BACK INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VLY. ALOFT, EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
THE OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

DESPITE THE UPR-LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
00Z RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES PW VALUES ~1 S.D. BELOW NORMAL (0.82"
WAL, 0.92 IAD, 0.67" RNK, 0.76" GSO) ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LACK
OF LLVL MOISTURE W/SFC HI PRES TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALBEIT VERY WARM. LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE WRT HIGHS, DEPICTING MAXIMA IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH SLIDES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT, AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER BUILDS IN
FROM THE W. LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA W/SIMILAR TEMPS WITH THE SFC HI IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM ON SUNDAY, BUT ONLY OVER NE NC
WITH SOME SEABREEZE EFFECTS ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA.
ANOTHER SMALL CHC FOR TSRA MONDAY, AS SHORTWAVES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW DROP FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, AT OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. THUS,
WILL KEEP POP IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE AT MOST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES ALSO RAMP UP ON MONDAY ON S/SW RETURN FLOW SETUP.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS THIS MORNING TURN BACK TO THE SSE BY THIS AFTN WITH
SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE
AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVERAGE 1-2 FT IN
THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT
WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO
MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE 60S AND PWATS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 1 INCH. THIS THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. ALOFT...GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAOB PLOTS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE MORE
THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE 60S AND PWATS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 1 INCH. THIS THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. ALOFT...GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAOB PLOTS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE MORE
THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE 60S AND PWATS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 1 INCH. THIS THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. ALOFT...GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAOB PLOTS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE MORE
THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE 60S AND PWATS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 1 INCH. THIS THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. ALOFT...GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAOB PLOTS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE MORE
THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NC. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLY WITH SPEEDS
AOB 10KT BY THIS AFTN WITH SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AGL DEVELOPING
AT ALL TAF SITES. KECG AND KSBY MAY EXPERIENCE BKN CIGS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE WEAK TROUGH GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE 60S AND PWATS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 1 INCH. THIS THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. ALOFT...GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAOB PLOTS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE MORE
THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL
VEER WINDS TO SE/S DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS...WILL
MAINTAIN A VFR FCST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND. A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS
IS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES
CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE 60S AND PWATS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 1 INCH. THIS THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT HAS
STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT
HAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. ALOFT...GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RAOB PLOTS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS HAVE PRODUCED LITTLE MORE
THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...AS
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL
VEER WINDS TO SE/S DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS...WILL
MAINTAIN A VFR FCST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND. A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS
IS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES
CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE NC CST.
ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT.
THE SFC HI WILL SLIDE E TWRDS THE MID ATLC TNGT WITH DRY WX AND A
MSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY S OF THE FA OVER
ERN NC. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL
VEER WINDS TO SE/S DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS...WILL
MAINTAIN A VFR FCST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND. A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS
IS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES
CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE NC CST.
ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT.
THE SFC HI WILL SLIDE E TWRDS THE MID ATLC TNGT WITH DRY WX AND A
MSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY S OF THE FA OVER
ERN NC. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL
VEER WINDS TO SE/S DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS...WILL
MAINTAIN A VFR FCST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND. A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS
IS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES
CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE NC CST.
ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT.
THE SFC HI WILL SLIDE E TWRDS THE MID ATLC TNGT WITH DRY WX AND A
MSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY S OF THE FA OVER
ERN NC. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SUN WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL
VEER WINDS TO SE/S DURING THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS...WILL
MAINTAIN A VFR FCST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT W/SW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND. A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS
IS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES
CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
611 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE NC CST.
ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT.
THE SFC HI WILL SLIDE E TWRDS THE MID ATLC TNGT WITH DRY WX AND A
MSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY S OF THE FA OVER
ERN NC. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SAT WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS THRU THE FCST PRD AS HIGH PRS BLDS IN FROM THE NW.
SCT CU DSPTS BY 00Z WITH SKC THEREAFTER. N-NE WNDS ARND 10 KTS
THIS AFTRN BECOME LGT / VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND. A SLGT CHC OF
TSTMS IS IN THE FCST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BEST
CHANCES CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312211
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
611 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE NC CST.
ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT.
THE SFC HI WILL SLIDE E TWRDS THE MID ATLC TNGT WITH DRY WX AND A
MSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY S OF THE FA OVER
ERN NC. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SAT WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS THRU THE FCST PRD AS HIGH PRS BLDS IN FROM THE NW.
SCT CU DSPTS BY 00Z WITH SKC THEREAFTER. N-NE WNDS ARND 10 KTS
THIS AFTRN BECOME LGT / VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND. A SLGT CHC OF
TSTMS IS IN THE FCST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BEST
CHANCES CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT/3-4 FT NC WATERS.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311957
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE NC CST.
ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT.
THE SFC HI WILL SLIDE E TWRDS THE MID ATLC TNGT WITH DRY WX AND A
MSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY S OF THE FA OVER
ERN NC. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SAT WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS THRU THE FCST PRD AS HIGH PRS BLDS IN FROM THE NW.
SCT CU DSPTS BY 00Z WITH SKC THEREAFTER. N-NE WNDS ARND 10 KTS
THIS AFTRN BECOME LGT / VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND. A SLGT CHC OF
TSTMS IS IN THE FCST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BEST
CHANCES CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE RAISED MODERATE RISK FOR RIPS VA BEACH AND NC OUTER BANKS AS
~15 KT NNE/ONSHORE WIND IS BRINGING 3 FT NEARSHORE SEAS TO THE
SURF ZONE. THIS...COMBINED WITH A FALLING TIDE PREVAILING THROUGH
MID AFTN SHOULD YIELD STRENGTHENING RIPS. (LOW TIDE DOES NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND 2 PM).

WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD TODAY AS FLOW HAS
TURNED NNE. ANOMALIES MAY RISE AGAIN WITH EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
SATURDAY NIGHT ON SLY (CHANNELING) FLOW UP THE BAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT. AS WITH YESTERDAY, TIDAL ANOMALIES
LOOKING TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT BISHOPS HEAD/CAMBRIDGE COULD YIELD SOME
SPOTTY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO FALL SHY OF MINOR
FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311957
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE NC CST.
ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT.
THE SFC HI WILL SLIDE E TWRDS THE MID ATLC TNGT WITH DRY WX AND A
MSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY S OF THE FA OVER
ERN NC. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SAT WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS THRU THE FCST PRD AS HIGH PRS BLDS IN FROM THE NW.
SCT CU DSPTS BY 00Z WITH SKC THEREAFTER. N-NE WNDS ARND 10 KTS
THIS AFTRN BECOME LGT / VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND. A SLGT CHC OF
TSTMS IS IN THE FCST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BEST
CHANCES CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE RAISED MODERATE RISK FOR RIPS VA BEACH AND NC OUTER BANKS AS
~15 KT NNE/ONSHORE WIND IS BRINGING 3 FT NEARSHORE SEAS TO THE
SURF ZONE. THIS...COMBINED WITH A FALLING TIDE PREVAILING THROUGH
MID AFTN SHOULD YIELD STRENGTHENING RIPS. (LOW TIDE DOES NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND 2 PM).

WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD TODAY AS FLOW HAS
TURNED NNE. ANOMALIES MAY RISE AGAIN WITH EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
SATURDAY NIGHT ON SLY (CHANNELING) FLOW UP THE BAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT. AS WITH YESTERDAY, TIDAL ANOMALIES
LOOKING TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT BISHOPS HEAD/CAMBRIDGE COULD YIELD SOME
SPOTTY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO FALL SHY OF MINOR
FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311957
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE
MID-MS VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY OFF THE NC CST.
ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL TROF WILL DIG ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TNGT.
THE SFC HI WILL SLIDE E TWRDS THE MID ATLC TNGT WITH DRY WX AND A
MSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED. ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY S OF THE FA OVER
ERN NC. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY CONDS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DESPITE THE UPR-
LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND SFC
HI PRES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY. A WEAK SFC BNDRY/TROF OF LO PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER
BLDS IN FM THE W. EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S...WITH
LOWS SAT NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

SIMILAR TEMPS INTO SAT WITH THE SFC HI STILL OVER THE AREA. DID
INCLUDE A 20% CHANCE OF A TSTM BUT ONLY OVER NE NC WITH SOME
SEABREEZE EFFECTS PSBL.

HOTTER CONDS THEN FOR MON AS S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AOA 100 DEGREES. POPS AGAIN
NO HIGHER THAN 20% FOR AN AFTN/EVENG TSTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SW/SRN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR GEORGIAN/HUDSON BAY CANADA.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE INTO IMPROVED AGREEMENT COMPARED TO
EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HOT WX TUE/WED WITH H8 TEMPS RISING
TO 19-21 C ACRS THE AREA. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S)
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTN WINDS SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE/ONSHORE. ALSO A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH AS
SFC FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT FAR NORTH OF THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO
MORE AFTN CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. DEW PTS ARE
FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST OF I-
95 TUE/WED...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS...LWR TO MID 60S
WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES PEAKING
AROUND 100 F OR A TAD HIGHER BUT REMAINING BELOW 105 F ADVSY
THRESHOLDS. AS FOR POPS TUE/WED...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF DEEP FORCING/MOISTURE BUT GIVEN FAIRLY LOW H5 HGTS AND HOT LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20% POP BOTH DAYS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (UP TO 30% WED ACRS THE NORTH).

BY THU/FRI...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACRS THE WRN CONUS GRADUALLY
CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC/CAROLINAS THU INTO FRI (THOUGH HARD TO SAY IF THE FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA ON FRI). RAISED POPS TO 40% N AND 30% S THU AFTN/THU
NIGHT...WITH A 20-30% POP FOR FRI. HIGHS TREND DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S N TO THE LWR 90S S ON THU...AND INTO THE 80S ALL AREAS
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS THRU THE FCST PRD AS HIGH PRS BLDS IN FROM THE NW.
SCT CU DSPTS BY 00Z WITH SKC THEREAFTER. N-NE WNDS ARND 10 KTS
THIS AFTRN BECOME LGT / VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THRU THE WEEKEND. A SLGT CHC OF
TSTMS IS IN THE FCST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BEST
CHANCES CONFINED TO SERN PORTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N/NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW
FARTHER NORTH. WAVES IN THE BAY AVG 1-2 FT AND COASTAL SEAS AVG
AROUND 3 FT.

WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSE THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE SSW LATER
TONIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW/GOOD BOATING CONDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO AFTN SEABREEZES...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN
THE MORNING...TURNING TO THE E/SE AT AROUND 10 KT IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES MON/MON NIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE (POSSIBLY TO MARGINAL SCA CONDS) WITH WAVES
2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE RAISED MODERATE RISK FOR RIPS VA BEACH AND NC OUTER BANKS AS
~15 KT NNE/ONSHORE WIND IS BRINGING 3 FT NEARSHORE SEAS TO THE
SURF ZONE. THIS...COMBINED WITH A FALLING TIDE PREVAILING THROUGH
MID AFTN SHOULD YIELD STRENGTHENING RIPS. (LOW TIDE DOES NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND 2 PM).

WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD TODAY AS FLOW HAS
TURNED NNE. ANOMALIES MAY RISE AGAIN WITH EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
SATURDAY NIGHT ON SLY (CHANNELING) FLOW UP THE BAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT. AS WITH YESTERDAY, TIDAL ANOMALIES
LOOKING TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF
A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT BISHOPS HEAD/CAMBRIDGE COULD YIELD SOME
SPOTTY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO FALL SHY OF MINOR
FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB




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