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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020222
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020222
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICALRIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICALRIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012357
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR LOW CEILINGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS SBY WHERE A LATE AFTN THUNDERSTORM LEFT A WET
GROUND AND A LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST MVFR
TO BEGIN AT 03Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR TO FOLLOW. DID NOT INCLUDE
IFR AT THE OTHER TAF STIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SLGT TO
LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
419 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...TMG





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE OF LO PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME ISO
SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE
WITH SOME SEABREEZES INTERACTING WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS.
ANY PCPN WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LACK OF UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES
WILL RANGE FM MSTLY CLEAR TO PRTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF MVFR CIGS ERODING ACRS CSTL NE NC EARLY THIS AFTN.
OTRW...REST OF DAY WILL HAVE SCT-BKN CU (MNLY 4-6KFT) WHICH IS
XPCD TO DISSIPATE EARLY EVE ONCE HEATING WANES. PATCHY FG PSBL AFT
MDNGT TNGT/EARLY WED MRNG. HAVE INCLUDED IFR CONDS IN SBY...AND
LEFT OUT FG MENTION ELSW DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING AND LO
CONFIDENCE. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION PSBL LT WED/WED NGT...OTRW MNLY
DRY/VFR CONDS W/ PSBL PATCHY FG FOR A FEW HOURS NR SUNRISE THROUGH
END OF THE WK.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
XPCT THE STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO BURN OFF BEFORE 15Z WITH SCT-BKN CU
(ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG DRNG THE LATE MORNING/AFTRN HRS. THIS CU DSPTS
BY 00Z WITH SKC AFTER THAT. PTCHY FOG PSBL ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
VRBL WNDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY AS HIGH PRS MOVES OVRHEAD.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS XCPT FOR THE
PSBLTY OF PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011024
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
XPCT THE STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO BURN OFF BEFORE 15Z WITH SCT-BKN CU
(ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG DRNG THE LATE MORNING/AFTRN HRS. THIS CU DSPTS
BY 00Z WITH SKC AFTER THAT. PTCHY FOG PSBL ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
VRBL WNDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY AS HIGH PRS MOVES OVRHEAD.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS XCPT FOR THE
PSBLTY OF PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON THE IFR STRATUS THAT IS OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT ERLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS PICKING UP ON THE MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE SERN TAF SITES. GIVEN NOT MUCH WIND PROGGED
OVR THE NEXT 6 HRS AND THE CRNT GOES IFR SAT LOOP...DECIDED TO
KEEP THE IFR ST AT RIC THRU 12Z WITH MVFR 1-3K FT AT ORF/PHF/ECG
(BASICALLY THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN YSTRDY). SBY PROBLEMATIC
FOR THE 06Z TAF GIVEN SKC THERE NOW. STILL THINK SBY WILL SEE ST
DVLP BEFORE SR. ALSO ADDED VCSH TO ECG GIVEN THE SHWRS CRNTLY
MOVING NE ACROSS NE NC.

XPCT THE ST/ PTCHY FOG TO BURN OFF BEFORE 15Z WITH SCT-BKN CU
(ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG DRNG THE LATE MORNING/AFTRN HRS. THIS CU DSPTS
BEFORE 00Z WITH SKC AFTER THAT. VRBL WNDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OVRHEAD.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. XCPTN BEING
THE PSBLTY OF PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG OBSERVED
OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING FOR NE NC.

FOR TODAY...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE/LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY PROFILE WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SE...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THICKNESSES RECOVER TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WEDS MORNING...LOCATING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDS AFTERNOON...DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO THE PIEDMONT...BUT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...A DRY/WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR EXPECTED
TO SQUASH CONVECTION AS IT PUSHES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE INTO CENTRAL VA.
THICKNESSES YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MOST LOCALES...AFTER LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDS MORNING.

UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE ERN CANADIAN COAST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SFC TROUGHING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA THURS
AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE HEIGHTS DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY...H85 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDS...TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S (4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL). MILD AGAIN THURS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON THE IFR STRATUS THAT IS OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT ERLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS PICKING UP ON THE MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE SERN TAF SITES. GIVEN NOT MUCH WIND PROGGED
OVR THE NEXT 6 HRS AND THE CRNT GOES IFR SAT LOOP...DECIDED TO
KEEP THE IFR ST AT RIC THRU 12Z WITH MVFR 1-3K FT AT ORF/PHF/ECG
(BASICALLY THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN YSTRDY). SBY PROBLEMATIC
FOR THE 06Z TAF GIVEN SKC THERE NOW. STILL THINK SBY WILL SEE ST
DVLP BEFORE SR. ALSO ADDED VCSH TO ECG GIVEN THE SHWRS CRNTLY
MOVING NE ACROSS NE NC.

XPCT THE ST/ PTCHY FOG TO BURN OFF BEFORE 15Z WITH SCT-BKN CU
(ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG DRNG THE LATE MORNING/AFTRN HRS. THIS CU DSPTS
BEFORE 00Z WITH SKC AFTER THAT. VRBL WNDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OVRHEAD.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. XCPTN BEING
THE PSBLTY OF PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD DESPITE WEAK LOW PRS MOVG EAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW. SETUP LOOKING GOOD FOR THE AFTRN SEABREEZE TO DVLP.

FLOW BECOMES S-SW TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT (BLO 15 KTS) AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N BY THURS AS ANTHR AREA OF HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WNDS XPCTD TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THRU FRI.
SEAS ARND 2 FT. AN XTNDD PRD OF ONSHORE FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY BUILD
SEAS OUT NR 20 NM TO 5 FT THIS WKEND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MAMIE IS OFFLINE DUE TO A
COMMS FAILURE. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010530
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL
COVERAGE LARGELY AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DUAL-POL DIFFERENTIAL
REFLECTIVITY DATA (ZDR) INDICATING THERE ARE STILL SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO
WORDING ACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA. EXPECT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OVERNIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. NOTING SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN VA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND WHERE MAJORITY OF RECENT RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. ALSO NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OUT WEST, BUT
OTHERWISE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THU WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUG...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVERNIGHT LO
TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON THE IFR STRATUS THAT IS OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT ERLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS PICKING UP ON THE MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE SERN TAF SITES. GIVEN NOT MUCH WIND PROGGED
OVR THE NEXT 6 HRS AND THE CRNT GOES IFR SAT LOOP...DECIDED TO
KEEP THE IFR ST AT RIC THRU 12Z WITH MVFR 1-3K FT AT ORF/PHF/ECG
(BASICALLY THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN YSTRDY). SBY PROBLEMATIC
FOR THE 06Z TAF GIVEN SKC THERE NOW. STILL THINK SBY WILL SEE ST
DVLP BEFORE SR. ALSO ADDED VCSH TO ECG GIVEN THE SHWRS CRNTLY
MOVING NE ACROSS NE NC.

XPCT THE ST/ PTCHY FOG TO BURN OFF BEFORE 15Z WITH SCT-BKN CU
(ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG DRNG THE LATE MORNING/AFTRN HRS. THIS CU DSPTS
BEFORE 00Z WITH SKC AFTER THAT. VRBL WNDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OVRHEAD.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. XCPTN BEING
THE PSBLTY OF PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010530
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL
COVERAGE LARGELY AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DUAL-POL DIFFERENTIAL
REFLECTIVITY DATA (ZDR) INDICATING THERE ARE STILL SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO
WORDING ACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA. EXPECT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OVERNIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. NOTING SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN VA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND WHERE MAJORITY OF RECENT RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. ALSO NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OUT WEST, BUT
OTHERWISE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THU WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUG...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVERNIGHT LO
TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON THE IFR STRATUS THAT IS OVERSPREADING
THE PIEDMONT ERLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS PICKING UP ON THE MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS THE SERN TAF SITES. GIVEN NOT MUCH WIND PROGGED
OVR THE NEXT 6 HRS AND THE CRNT GOES IFR SAT LOOP...DECIDED TO
KEEP THE IFR ST AT RIC THRU 12Z WITH MVFR 1-3K FT AT ORF/PHF/ECG
(BASICALLY THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN YSTRDY). SBY PROBLEMATIC
FOR THE 06Z TAF GIVEN SKC THERE NOW. STILL THINK SBY WILL SEE ST
DVLP BEFORE SR. ALSO ADDED VCSH TO ECG GIVEN THE SHWRS CRNTLY
MOVING NE ACROSS NE NC.

XPCT THE ST/ PTCHY FOG TO BURN OFF BEFORE 15Z WITH SCT-BKN CU
(ARND 5K FT) DVLPNG DRNG THE LATE MORNING/AFTRN HRS. THIS CU DSPTS
BEFORE 00Z WITH SKC AFTER THAT. VRBL WNDS AOB 10 KTS TODAY AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OVRHEAD.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. XCPTN BEING
THE PSBLTY OF PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010125
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL
COVERAGE LARGELY AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DUAL-POL DIFFERENTIAL
REFLECTIVITY DATA (ZDR) INDICATING THERE ARE STILL SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO
WORDING ACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA. EXPECT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OVERNIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. NOTING SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN VA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND WHERE MAJORITY OF RECENT RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. ALSO NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OUT WEST, BUT
OTHERWISE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THU WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUG...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVERNIGHT LO
TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
FLATTENING OUT AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL DURING THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DAY OF SCATTERED PCPN...THE FOCUS TURNS TO FORECASTING THE
CIGS AND VSBY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ECG AND ORF THE ONLY
MEASURABLE RAIN AND ECG HAS ALREADY SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.
HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT KEPT IFR ONLY AT
ECG DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND RECENT TRENDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
FORECAST AT ORF AND PHF WITH MVFR FOG AT RIC AND SBY...NEITHER OF
WHICH SAW MEASURABLE RAIN. IT WAS TEMPTING TO INCLUDE IFR VSBY AT
SBY DUE TO THE MOS FORECASTS BUT IT HAS BEEN A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE
THAT THE MOS FORECASTS COME OUT OVERDONE WITH LOW VSBY.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATING
WITH MAINLY SCT CU DOTTING THE SKY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN AOB 10
KNOTS. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS
EXCEPT SW AT SBY.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME. ALSO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010125
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL
COVERAGE LARGELY AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DUAL-POL DIFFERENTIAL
REFLECTIVITY DATA (ZDR) INDICATING THERE ARE STILL SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO
WORDING ACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA. EXPECT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OVERNIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. NOTING SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN VA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND WHERE MAJORITY OF RECENT RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. ALSO NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OUT WEST, BUT
OTHERWISE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THU WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUG...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVERNIGHT LO
TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
FLATTENING OUT AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL DURING THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DAY OF SCATTERED PCPN...THE FOCUS TURNS TO FORECASTING THE
CIGS AND VSBY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ECG AND ORF THE ONLY
MEASURABLE RAIN AND ECG HAS ALREADY SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.
HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT KEPT IFR ONLY AT
ECG DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND RECENT TRENDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
FORECAST AT ORF AND PHF WITH MVFR FOG AT RIC AND SBY...NEITHER OF
WHICH SAW MEASURABLE RAIN. IT WAS TEMPTING TO INCLUDE IFR VSBY AT
SBY DUE TO THE MOS FORECASTS BUT IT HAS BEEN A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE
THAT THE MOS FORECASTS COME OUT OVERDONE WITH LOW VSBY.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATING
WITH MAINLY SCT CU DOTTING THE SKY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN AOB 10
KNOTS. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS
EXCEPT SW AT SBY.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME. ALSO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010125
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL
COVERAGE LARGELY AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DUAL-POL DIFFERENTIAL
REFLECTIVITY DATA (ZDR) INDICATING THERE ARE STILL SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO
WORDING ACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA. EXPECT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OVERNIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. NOTING SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN VA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND WHERE MAJORITY OF RECENT RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. ALSO NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OUT WEST, BUT
OTHERWISE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THU WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUG...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVERNIGHT LO
TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
FLATTENING OUT AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL DURING THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DAY OF SCATTERED PCPN...THE FOCUS TURNS TO FORECASTING THE
CIGS AND VSBY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ECG AND ORF THE ONLY
MEASURABLE RAIN AND ECG HAS ALREADY SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.
HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT KEPT IFR ONLY AT
ECG DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND RECENT TRENDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
FORECAST AT ORF AND PHF WITH MVFR FOG AT RIC AND SBY...NEITHER OF
WHICH SAW MEASURABLE RAIN. IT WAS TEMPTING TO INCLUDE IFR VSBY AT
SBY DUE TO THE MOS FORECASTS BUT IT HAS BEEN A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE
THAT THE MOS FORECASTS COME OUT OVERDONE WITH LOW VSBY.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATING
WITH MAINLY SCT CU DOTTING THE SKY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN AOB 10
KNOTS. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS
EXCEPT SW AT SBY.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME. ALSO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010125
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL
COVERAGE LARGELY AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DUAL-POL DIFFERENTIAL
REFLECTIVITY DATA (ZDR) INDICATING THERE ARE STILL SOME SPOTTY
SHRAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO
WORDING ACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA. EXPECT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OVERNIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. NOTING SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN VA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND WHERE MAJORITY OF RECENT RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT. ALSO NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OUT WEST, BUT
OTHERWISE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THU WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUG...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVERNIGHT LO
TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
FLATTENING OUT AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL DURING THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DAY OF SCATTERED PCPN...THE FOCUS TURNS TO FORECASTING THE
CIGS AND VSBY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ECG AND ORF THE ONLY
MEASURABLE RAIN AND ECG HAS ALREADY SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.
HAVE THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT KEPT IFR ONLY AT
ECG DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND RECENT TRENDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
FORECAST AT ORF AND PHF WITH MVFR FOG AT RIC AND SBY...NEITHER OF
WHICH SAW MEASURABLE RAIN. IT WAS TEMPTING TO INCLUDE IFR VSBY AT
SBY DUE TO THE MOS FORECASTS BUT IT HAS BEEN A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE
THAT THE MOS FORECASTS COME OUT OVERDONE WITH LOW VSBY.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATING
WITH MAINLY SCT CU DOTTING THE SKY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN AOB 10
KNOTS. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS
EXCEPT SW AT SBY.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME. ALSO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
839 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES NR THE CAROLINA
CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. AN AREA OF SHRAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT AND A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER NE NC...BEFORE
DISSIPATING TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY...DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVRNGT FOR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC BUT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE
AS SFC HI PRES NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. SKIES WILL RANGE FM
MSTLY CLEAR NW TO MSTLY CLOUDY SE. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT NOT LIKELY
SINCE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TDA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUR...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVRNGT LO TEMPS
IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
FLATTENING OUT AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL DURING THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DAY OF SCATTERED PCPN...THE FOCUS TURNS TO FORECASTING THE
CIGS AND VSBYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ECG AND ORF THE ONLY
MEASURABLE RAIN AND ECG HAS ALREADY SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. HAVE
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT KEPT IFR ONLY AT ECG
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND RECENT TRENDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
FORECAST AT ORF AND PHF WITH MVFR FOG AT RIC AND SBY...NEITHER OF
WHICH SAW MEASURABLE RAIN. IT WAS TEMPTING TO INCLUDE IFR VSBYS AT
SBY DUE TO THE MOS FORECASTS BUT IT HAS BEEN A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE
THAT THE MOS FORECASTS COME OUT OVERDONE WITH LOW VSBYS.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATING
WITH MAINLY SCT CU DOTTING THE SKY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN AOB 10
KNOTS. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS
EXCEPT SW AT SBY.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME. ALSO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.
&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
839 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES NR THE CAROLINA
CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. AN AREA OF SHRAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT AND A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER NE NC...BEFORE
DISSIPATING TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY...DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVRNGT FOR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC BUT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE
AS SFC HI PRES NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. SKIES WILL RANGE FM
MSTLY CLEAR NW TO MSTLY CLOUDY SE. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT NOT LIKELY
SINCE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TDA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUR...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVRNGT LO TEMPS
IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
FLATTENING OUT AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL DURING THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

AFTER A DAY OF SCATTERED PCPN...THE FOCUS TURNS TO FORECASTING THE
CIGS AND VSBYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ECG AND ORF THE ONLY
MEASURABLE RAIN AND ECG HAS ALREADY SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. HAVE
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS BUT KEPT IFR ONLY AT ECG
DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND RECENT TRENDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
FORECAST AT ORF AND PHF WITH MVFR FOG AT RIC AND SBY...NEITHER OF
WHICH SAW MEASURABLE RAIN. IT WAS TEMPTING TO INCLUDE IFR VSBYS AT
SBY DUE TO THE MOS FORECASTS BUT IT HAS BEEN A FREQUENT OCCURRENCE
THAT THE MOS FORECASTS COME OUT OVERDONE WITH LOW VSBYS.

AFTER MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATING
WITH MAINLY SCT CU DOTTING THE SKY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN AOB 10
KNOTS. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS
EXCEPT SW AT SBY.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME. ALSO THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.
&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES NR THE CAROLINA
CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. AN AREA OF SHRAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT AND A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER NE NC...BEFORE
DISSIPATING TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY...DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVRNGT FOR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC BUT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE
AS SFC HI PRES NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. SKIES WILL RANGE FM
MSTLY CLEAR NW TO MSTLY CLOUDY SE. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT NOT LIKELY
SINCE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TDA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUR...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVRNGT LO TEMPS
IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC MOVING NORTHEAST
PRIMARY ACROSS ECG AND CLOSE TO ORF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 4
PM. FOR THE MOST PART MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERED AREAS FROM SBY
TO RIC AND ROA SOUTH WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS CENTRAL VA
HOWEVER A BKN DECK BETWEEN 5KFT AND 8KFT WILL PERSISTS. CEILINGS
OF 3KFT TO 7KFT WILL PERSISTS AT ORF AND ECG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY THE LOW AND
MID- LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS AT RIC...ORF AND ECG.
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR FOG LESS THAN 2 MILES AND
CEILINGS 1KFT OR LOWER BETWEEN 08Z-13Z...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF
ON GOING TO PESSIMISTIC IN TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312048
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES NR THE CAROLINA
CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. AN AREA OF SHRAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT AND A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER NE NC...BEFORE
DISSIPATING TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY...DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVRNGT FOR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC BUT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE
AS SFC HI PRES NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. SKIES WILL RANGE FM
MSTLY CLEAR NW TO MSTLY CLOUDY SE. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT NOT LIKELY
SINCE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TDA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUR...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVRNGT LO TEMPS
IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE US
RIDGING SOUTH.  THE RIDGING WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE NE TO E FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGHING OFF THE SE WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR SOUTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AKQ
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST
SAT THROUGH MON. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC MOVING NORTHEAST
PRIMARY ACROSS ECG AND CLOSE TO ORF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 4
PM. FOR THE MOST PART MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERED AREAS FROM SBY
TO RIC AND ROA SOUTH WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS CENTRAL VA
HOWEVER A BKN DECK BETWEEN 5KFT AND 8KFT WILL PERSISTS. CEILINGS
OF 3KFT TO 7KFT WILL PERSISTS AT ORF AND ECG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY THE LOW AND
MID- LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS AT RIC...ORF AND ECG.
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR FOG LESS THAN 2 MILES AND
CEILINGS 1KFT OR LOWER BETWEEN 08Z-13Z...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF
ON GOING TO PESSIMISTIC IN TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE. THE RESULT IS SOUTHERLY FLOW AOB 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2
FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS
TO 10-15 KT. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON TUE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH WED. SEAS
GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND. PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SEAS COULD BUILD 4 TO 5FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311954
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
354 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES NR THE CAROLINA
CST WITH BROAD HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. AN AREA OF SHRAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT AND A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER NE NC...BEFORE
DISSIPATING TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH
THE FRNT IN THE VICINITY...DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVRNGT FOR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC BUT DRY WX WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE
AS SFC HI PRES NUDGES INTO THE AREA FM THE W. SKIES WILL RANGE FM
MSTLY CLEAR NW TO MSTLY CLOUDY SE. SOME FOG IS PSBL BUT NOT LIKELY
SINCE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN TDA. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES ON AVG
WITH AN OCCASIONAL WEAK TROF OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
ATLC. FOR TUE...DECREASING MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDS...WITH AT BEST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WITH RISING MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AND
MAX OUT NR 90 IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FM THE W WED AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER WRN AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PCPN. SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LO 90S
MOST AREAS WED AND THUR...MID/UPR 80S NR THE CST. OVRNGT LO TEMPS
IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC MOVING NORTHEAST
PRIMARY ACROSS ECG AND CLOSE TO ORF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 4
PM. FOR THE MOST PART MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERED AREAS FROM SBY
TO RIC AND ROA SOUTH WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS CENTRAL VA
HOWEVER A BKN DECK BETWEEN 5KFT AND 8KFT WILL PERSISTS. CEILINGS
OF 3KFT TO 7KFT WILL PERSISTS AT ORF AND ECG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY THE LOW AND
MID- LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS AT RIC...ORF AND ECG.
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR FOG LESS THAN 2 MILES AND
CEILINGS 1KFT OR LOWER BETWEEN 08Z-13Z...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF
ON GOING TO PESSIMISTIC IN TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. THE
RESULT IS SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OBSERVED NRN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT.
COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SRN WATERS. S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT PERSIST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
GENERALLY SW-W AOB 15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
144 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITUATED
ALONG THE NE NC COAST...WITH A SFC TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
GA/SC COAST INTO CENTRAL NC. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW...WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL MAINLY HAVE CIGS OF 10-15 K FT
ACRS THE CWA SO THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS DESPITE SOME INCREASING COVERAGE ON THE
RADAR. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CIGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF...NOW PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL NC AND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. DESPITE THIS BEING A LOW QPF EVENT FOR MOST
OF THE CWA...DECIDED TO BRING SCATTERED WORDING/CHC POPS INTO ALL
OF CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING...WITH A BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
(AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN) AND LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING
OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
INTO THE AFTN ACRS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N AND W INCLUDING CENTRAL
VA. WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE THE SFC THIS AFTN
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL MSTR...SUSPECT SKIES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE AFTN OR EVEN EARLY EVENING...FAR N/NW
ZONES HAVE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME SUN AFTER 18-21Z...ELSEWHERE
WILL CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO THE LWR
80S OVER THE FAR S/SE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS S/SE TO AROUND A 20% POP
FARTHER NORTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE
ACRS THE REGION. WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S NW...TO THE LOWER 70S FARTHER SE.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. FORCING FOR ANY LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...AND THUS
POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR S/SE
FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE...WITH A MORE
GENERAL 20% POP FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON WED (30% NW). EXPECT HIGHS
TUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND...AND AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY.
EARLY MORNING LOWS EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC MOVING NORTHEAST
PRIMARY ACROSS ECG AND CLOSE TO ORF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 4
PM. FOR THE MOST PART MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERED AREAS FROM SBY
TO RIC AND ROA SOUTH WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS CENTRAL VA
HOWEVER A BKN DECK BETWEEN 5KFT AND 8KFT WILL PERSISTS. CEILINGS
OF 3KFT TO 7KFT WILL PERSISTS AT ORF AND ECG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY THE LOW AND
MID- LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS AT RIC...ORF AND ECG.
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR FOG LESS THAN 2 MILES AND
CEILINGS 1KFT OR LOWER BETWEEN 08Z-13Z...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF
ON GOING TO PESSIMISTIC IN TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. THE
RESULT IS SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OBSERVED NRN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT.
COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SRN WATERS. S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT PERSIST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
GENERALLY SW-W AOB 15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
144 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITUATED
ALONG THE NE NC COAST...WITH A SFC TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
GA/SC COAST INTO CENTRAL NC. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW...WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL MAINLY HAVE CIGS OF 10-15 K FT
ACRS THE CWA SO THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS DESPITE SOME INCREASING COVERAGE ON THE
RADAR. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CIGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF...NOW PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL NC AND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. DESPITE THIS BEING A LOW QPF EVENT FOR MOST
OF THE CWA...DECIDED TO BRING SCATTERED WORDING/CHC POPS INTO ALL
OF CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING...WITH A BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
(AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN) AND LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING
OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
INTO THE AFTN ACRS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N AND W INCLUDING CENTRAL
VA. WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE THE SFC THIS AFTN
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL MSTR...SUSPECT SKIES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE AFTN OR EVEN EARLY EVENING...FAR N/NW
ZONES HAVE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME SUN AFTER 18-21Z...ELSEWHERE
WILL CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO THE LWR
80S OVER THE FAR S/SE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS S/SE TO AROUND A 20% POP
FARTHER NORTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE
ACRS THE REGION. WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S NW...TO THE LOWER 70S FARTHER SE.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. FORCING FOR ANY LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...AND THUS
POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR S/SE
FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE...WITH A MORE
GENERAL 20% POP FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON WED (30% NW). EXPECT HIGHS
TUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND...AND AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY.
EARLY MORNING LOWS EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC MOVING NORTHEAST
PRIMARY ACROSS ECG AND CLOSE TO ORF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 4
PM. FOR THE MOST PART MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERED AREAS FROM SBY
TO RIC AND ROA SOUTH WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS CENTRAL VA
HOWEVER A BKN DECK BETWEEN 5KFT AND 8KFT WILL PERSISTS. CEILINGS
OF 3KFT TO 7KFT WILL PERSISTS AT ORF AND ECG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY THE LOW AND
MID- LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS AT RIC...ORF AND ECG.
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR FOG LESS THAN 2 MILES AND
CEILINGS 1KFT OR LOWER BETWEEN 08Z-13Z...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF
ON GOING TO PESSIMISTIC IN TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. THE
RESULT IS SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OBSERVED NRN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT.
COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SRN WATERS. S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT PERSIST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
GENERALLY SW-W AOB 15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
144 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITUATED
ALONG THE NE NC COAST...WITH A SFC TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
GA/SC COAST INTO CENTRAL NC. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW...WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL MAINLY HAVE CIGS OF 10-15 K FT
ACRS THE CWA SO THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS DESPITE SOME INCREASING COVERAGE ON THE
RADAR. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CIGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF...NOW PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL NC AND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. DESPITE THIS BEING A LOW QPF EVENT FOR MOST
OF THE CWA...DECIDED TO BRING SCATTERED WORDING/CHC POPS INTO ALL
OF CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING...WITH A BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
(AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN) AND LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING
OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
INTO THE AFTN ACRS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N AND W INCLUDING CENTRAL
VA. WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE THE SFC THIS AFTN
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL MSTR...SUSPECT SKIES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE AFTN OR EVEN EARLY EVENING...FAR N/NW
ZONES HAVE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME SUN AFTER 18-21Z...ELSEWHERE
WILL CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO THE LWR
80S OVER THE FAR S/SE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS S/SE TO AROUND A 20% POP
FARTHER NORTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE
ACRS THE REGION. WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S NW...TO THE LOWER 70S FARTHER SE.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. FORCING FOR ANY LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...AND THUS
POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR S/SE
FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE...WITH A MORE
GENERAL 20% POP FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON WED (30% NW). EXPECT HIGHS
TUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND...AND AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY.
EARLY MORNING LOWS EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC MOVING NORTHEAST
PRIMARY ACROSS ECG AND CLOSE TO ORF. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY 4
PM. FOR THE MOST PART MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERED AREAS FROM SBY
TO RIC AND ROA SOUTH WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS CENTRAL VA
HOWEVER A BKN DECK BETWEEN 5KFT AND 8KFT WILL PERSISTS. CEILINGS
OF 3KFT TO 7KFT WILL PERSISTS AT ORF AND ECG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS EVENING. GENERALLY THE LOW AND
MID- LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS AT RIC...ORF AND ECG.
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR FOG LESS THAN 2 MILES AND
CEILINGS 1KFT OR LOWER BETWEEN 08Z-13Z...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF
ON GOING TO PESSIMISTIC IN TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. THE
RESULT IS SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OBSERVED NRN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT.
COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SRN WATERS. S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT PERSIST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
GENERALLY SW-W AOB 15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITUATED
ALONG THE NE NC COAST...WITH A SFC TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
GA/SC COAST INTO CENTRAL NC. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW...WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL MAINLY HAVE CIGS OF 10-15 K FT
ACRS THE CWA SO THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS DESPITE SOME INCREASING COVERAGE ON THE
RADAR. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CIGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF...NOW PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL NC AND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. DESPITE THIS BEING A LOW QPF EVENT FOR MOST
OF THE CWA...DECIDED TO BRING SCATTERED WORDING/CHC POPS INTO ALL
OF CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING...WITH A BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
(AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN) AND LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING
OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
INTO THE AFTN ACRS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N AND W INCLUDING CENTRAL
VA. WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE THE SFC THIS AFTN
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL MSTR...SUSPECT SKIES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE AFTN OR EVEN EARLY EVENING...FAR N/NW
ZONES HAVE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME SUN AFTER 18-21Z...ELSEWHERE
WILL CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO THE LWR
80S OVER THE FAR S/SE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS S/SE TO AROUND A 20% POP
FARTHER NORTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE
ACRS THE REGION. WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S NW...TO THE LOWER 70S FARTHER SE.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. FORCING FOR ANY LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...AND THUS
POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR S/SE
FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE...WITH A MORE
GENERAL 20% POP FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON WED (30% NW). EXPECT HIGHS
TUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND...AND AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY.
EARLY MORNING LOWS EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...PUSHING
NEWD AS OF THIS WRITING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INTO DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KECG AND KSBY FOR PASSING BRIEF SHOWERS. EXPECT
LITTLE VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN SHOWERS. OVC DECK REMAINS 8-12K FT
AGL. A LOWER DECK OF 4-6K FT AGL IS LIFTING INTO NE NC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO
FOCUS MORE IN NE NC AND SE VA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP STILL
RESIDES AT KECG...BUT HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH KORF. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH OF SEEING PRECIP. SHOWERS PUSH OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP LATE
TODAY/THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING IN TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. THE
RESULT IS SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OBSERVED NRN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT.
COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SRN WATERS. S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT PERSIST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
GENERALLY SW-W AOB 15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITUATED
ALONG THE NE NC COAST...WITH A SFC TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
GA/SC COAST INTO CENTRAL NC. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW...WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL MAINLY HAVE CIGS OF 10-15 K FT
ACRS THE CWA SO THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS DESPITE SOME INCREASING COVERAGE ON THE
RADAR. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CIGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF...NOW PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL NC AND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. DESPITE THIS BEING A LOW QPF EVENT FOR MOST
OF THE CWA...DECIDED TO BRING SCATTERED WORDING/CHC POPS INTO ALL
OF CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING...WITH A BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
(AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN) AND LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING
OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
INTO THE AFTN ACRS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N AND W INCLUDING CENTRAL
VA. WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE THE SFC THIS AFTN
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL MSTR...SUSPECT SKIES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE AFTN OR EVEN EARLY EVENING...FAR N/NW
ZONES HAVE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME SUN AFTER 18-21Z...ELSEWHERE
WILL CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO THE LWR
80S OVER THE FAR S/SE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS S/SE TO AROUND A 20% POP
FARTHER NORTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE
ACRS THE REGION. WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S NW...TO THE LOWER 70S FARTHER SE.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. FORCING FOR ANY LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...AND THUS
POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR S/SE
FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE...WITH A MORE
GENERAL 20% POP FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON WED (30% NW). EXPECT HIGHS
TUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND...AND AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY.
EARLY MORNING LOWS EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...PUSHING
NEWD AS OF THIS WRITING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INTO DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KECG AND KSBY FOR PASSING BRIEF SHOWERS. EXPECT
LITTLE VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN SHOWERS. OVC DECK REMAINS 8-12K FT
AGL. A LOWER DECK OF 4-6K FT AGL IS LIFTING INTO NE NC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO THE REGION...EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO
FOCUS MORE IN NE NC AND SE VA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP STILL
RESIDES AT KECG...BUT HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH KORF. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH OF SEEING PRECIP. SHOWERS PUSH OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP LATE
TODAY/THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG/STRATUS...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
OVER THE REGION AND POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING IN TAFS.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. THE
RESULT IS SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OBSERVED NRN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT.
COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SRN WATERS. S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT PERSIST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
GENERALLY SW-W AOB 15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE STILL SITUATED
ALONG THE NE NC COAST...WITH A SFC TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
GA/SC COAST INTO CENTRAL NC. FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW...WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL MAINLY HAVE CIGS OF 10-15 K FT
ACRS THE CWA SO THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS DESPITE SOME INCREASING COVERAGE ON THE
RADAR. HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CIGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF...NOW PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL NC AND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
DAYBREAK...EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. DESPITE THIS BEING A LOW QPF EVENT FOR MOST
OF THE CWA...DECIDED TO BRING SCATTERED WORDING/CHC POPS INTO ALL
OF CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING...WITH A BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
(AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN) AND LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING
OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC LATER THIS MORNING...AND SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO FAR SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS
INTO THE AFTN ACRS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N AND W INCLUDING CENTRAL
VA. WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE THE SFC THIS AFTN
COMBINED WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL MSTR...SUSPECT SKIES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY UNTIL LATE AFTN OR EVEN EARLY EVENING...FAR N/NW
ZONES HAVE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME SUN AFTER 18-21Z...ELSEWHERE
WILL CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO THE LWR
80S OVER THE FAR S/SE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS S/SE TO AROUND A 20% POP
FARTHER NORTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRADUALLY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE
ACRS THE REGION. WARM/HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S NW...TO THE LOWER 70S FARTHER SE.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. FORCING FOR ANY LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FAIRLY WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...AND THUS
POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR S/SE
FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ON TUE...WITH A MORE
GENERAL 20% POP FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON WED. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INLAND...AND AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOWS EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN WAKE OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...BUT A COASTAL FRONT HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. MID-
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY OVC SKIES WITH DECKS 10-15K FT AGL. WINDS
CALM-LIGHT (AOB 5 KT). AREA OF PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SC WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO ERN AND NERN NC LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH KECG BY 12-14Z. DECKS LOWER TO 4-6K FT AGL SE VA/NE NC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL PERSIST SE
VA/NE NC THRU THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE PRECIP AT KORF/KPHF. OTHERWISE...OVC DECK
8-12K FT AGL WILL PERSIST. SFC WINDS GENERALLY SWLY AOB 10 KT.
PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS...KEEPING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 10K FT AGL IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. THE
RESULT IS SWLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT OBSERVED NRN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT.
COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SRN WATERS. S-SW WINDS 5-15 KT PERSIST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
GENERALLY SW-W AOB 15 KT. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE REGION FRI...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. FLOW BECOMES NELY...WITH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NERN GA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE COAST SENDING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN
THE HIGHER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARLIER SPRINKLES THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE COASTAL FRONT AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING. AS THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS...NOW DOWN OVER SC/SRN
NC...SPREAD INTO THE REGION...MAINLY NE NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY VALUES...BUT EXPECT QPF TO BE
LOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 0.25". BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE PAST THE REGION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES BACK OFF THE COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN WAKE OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...BUT A COASTAL FRONT HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. MID-
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY OVC SKIES WITH DECKS 10-15K FT AGL. WINDS
CALM-LIGHT (AOB 5 KT). AREA OF PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SC WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO ERN AND NERN NC LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH KECG BY 12-14Z. DECKS LOWER TO 4-6K FT AGL SE VA/NE NC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL PERSIST SE
VA/NE NC THRU THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE PRECIP AT KORF/KPHF. OTHERWISE...OVC DECK
8-12K FT AGL WILL PERSIST. SFC WINDS GENERALLY SWLY AOB 10 KT.
PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS...KEEPING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 10K FT AGL IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NERN GA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE COAST SENDING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN
THE HIGHER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARLIER SPRINKLES THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE COASTAL FRONT AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING. AS THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS...NOW DOWN OVER SC/SRN
NC...SPREAD INTO THE REGION...MAINLY NE NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY VALUES...BUT EXPECT QPF TO BE
LOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 0.25". BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE PAST THE REGION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES BACK OFF THE COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN WAKE OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...BUT A COASTAL FRONT HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. MID-
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY OVC SKIES WITH DECKS 10-15K FT AGL. WINDS
CALM-LIGHT (AOB 5 KT). AREA OF PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SC WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO ERN AND NERN NC LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH KECG BY 12-14Z. DECKS LOWER TO 4-6K FT AGL SE VA/NE NC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL PERSIST SE
VA/NE NC THRU THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE PRECIP AT KORF/KPHF. OTHERWISE...OVC DECK
8-12K FT AGL WILL PERSIST. SFC WINDS GENERALLY SWLY AOB 10 KT.
PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS...KEEPING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 10K FT AGL IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NERN GA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE COAST SENDING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN
THE HIGHER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARLIER SPRINKLES THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE COASTAL FRONT AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING. AS THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS...NOW DOWN OVER SC/SRN
NC...SPREAD INTO THE REGION...MAINLY NE NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY VALUES...BUT EXPECT QPF TO BE
LOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 0.25". BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE PAST THE REGION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES BACK OFF THE COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN WAKE OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...BUT A COASTAL FRONT HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. MID-
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY OVC SKIES WITH DECKS 10-15K FT AGL. WINDS
CALM-LIGHT (AOB 5 KT). AREA OF PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SC WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO ERN AND NERN NC LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH KECG BY 12-14Z. DECKS LOWER TO 4-6K FT AGL SE VA/NE NC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL PERSIST SE
VA/NE NC THRU THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE PRECIP AT KORF/KPHF. OTHERWISE...OVC DECK
8-12K FT AGL WILL PERSIST. SFC WINDS GENERALLY SWLY AOB 10 KT.
PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS...KEEPING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 10K FT AGL IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310619
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NERN GA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE COAST SENDING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN
THE HIGHER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARLIER SPRINKLES THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE COASTAL FRONT AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING. AS THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS...NOW DOWN OVER SC/SRN
NC...SPREAD INTO THE REGION...MAINLY NE NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY VALUES...BUT EXPECT QPF TO BE
LOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 0.25". BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE PAST THE REGION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES BACK OFF THE COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN WAKE OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...BUT A COASTAL FRONT HAS LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST. MID-
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY OVC SKIES WITH DECKS 10-15K FT AGL. WINDS
CALM-LIGHT (AOB 5 KT). AREA OF PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER SC WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO ERN AND NERN NC LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH KECG BY 12-14Z. DECKS LOWER TO 4-6K FT AGL SE VA/NE NC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL PERSIST SE
VA/NE NC THRU THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT...WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE PRECIP AT KORF/KPHF. OTHERWISE...OVC DECK
8-12K FT AGL WILL PERSIST. SFC WINDS GENERALLY SWLY AOB 10 KT.
PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS...KEEPING A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 10K FT AGL IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONLY ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70...RESULTING IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
851 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NERN GA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE COAST SENDING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN
THE HIGHER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARLIER SPRINKLES THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE COASTAL FRONT AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING. AS THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS...NOW DOWN OVER SC/SRN
NC...SPREAD INTO THE REGION...MAINLY NE NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY VALUES...BUT EXPECT QPF TO BE
LOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 0.25". BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE PAST THE REGION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES BACK OFF THE COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WAS
HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED PCPN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OUT ON MONDAY.

EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LAYERED CLOUDINESS ABOVE 10K FT OVER THE TAF
SITES. THE COLUMN WAS RELATIVELY DRY BELOW THAT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE MOIST AIR TO AROUND 5-8K FT OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIFT WILL BE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
CHC TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ORF AND ECG BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEPT VSBY AT 7 PLUS AS THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT THE SURFACE WILL GET
CLOSE TO SATURATION BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT ECG. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES COULD GET A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE TAF PERIOD BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS
AND GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME LIMITED CIGS/VSBY...MAINLY NO LOWER THAN MVFR...
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
851 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NERN GA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE COAST SENDING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN
THE HIGHER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARLIER SPRINKLES THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE COASTAL FRONT AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING. AS THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS...NOW DOWN OVER SC/SRN
NC...SPREAD INTO THE REGION...MAINLY NE NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY VALUES...BUT EXPECT QPF TO BE
LOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 0.25". BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE PAST THE REGION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES BACK OFF THE COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WAS
HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED PCPN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OUT ON MONDAY.

EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LAYERED CLOUDINESS ABOVE 10K FT OVER THE TAF
SITES. THE COLUMN WAS RELATIVELY DRY BELOW THAT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE MOIST AIR TO AROUND 5-8K FT OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIFT WILL BE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
CHC TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ORF AND ECG BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEPT VSBY AT 7 PLUS AS THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT THE SURFACE WILL GET
CLOSE TO SATURATION BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT ECG. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES COULD GET A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE TAF PERIOD BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS
AND GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME LIMITED CIGS/VSBY...MAINLY NO LOWER THAN MVFR...
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
851 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NERN GA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE COAST SENDING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN
THE HIGHER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARLIER SPRINKLES THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE COASTAL FRONT AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING. AS THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS...NOW DOWN OVER SC/SRN
NC...SPREAD INTO THE REGION...MAINLY NE NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY VALUES...BUT EXPECT QPF TO BE
LOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 0.25". BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE PAST THE REGION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES BACK OFF THE COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WAS
HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED PCPN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OUT ON MONDAY.

EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LAYERED CLOUDINESS ABOVE 10K FT OVER THE TAF
SITES. THE COLUMN WAS RELATIVELY DRY BELOW THAT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE MOIST AIR TO AROUND 5-8K FT OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIFT WILL BE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
CHC TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ORF AND ECG BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEPT VSBY AT 7 PLUS AS THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT THE SURFACE WILL GET
CLOSE TO SATURATION BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT ECG. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES COULD GET A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE TAF PERIOD BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS
AND GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME LIMITED CIGS/VSBY...MAINLY NO LOWER THAN MVFR...
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
851 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NERN GA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE COAST SENDING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN
THE HIGHER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EARLIER SPRINKLES THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE COASTAL FRONT AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWERING. AS THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS...NOW DOWN OVER SC/SRN
NC...SPREAD INTO THE REGION...MAINLY NE NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER.
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY VALUES...BUT EXPECT QPF TO BE
LOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 0.25". BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE PAST THE REGION AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES BACK OFF THE COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WAS
HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED PCPN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OUT ON MONDAY.

EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LAYERED CLOUDINESS ABOVE 10K FT OVER THE TAF
SITES. THE COLUMN WAS RELATIVELY DRY BELOW THAT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE MOIST AIR TO AROUND 5-8K FT OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIFT WILL BE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
CHC TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ORF AND ECG BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEPT VSBY AT 7 PLUS AS THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT THE SURFACE WILL GET
CLOSE TO SATURATION BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT ECG. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES COULD GET A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE TAF PERIOD BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS
AND GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME LIMITED CIGS/VSBY...MAINLY NO LOWER THAN MVFR...
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
806 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WAS
HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED PCPN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OUT ON MONDAY.

EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LAYERED CLOUDINESS ABOVE 10K FT OVER THE TAF
SITES. THE COLUMN WAS RELATIVELY DRY BELOW THAT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE MOIST AIR TO AROUND 5-8K FT OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIFT WILL BE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
CHC TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ORF AND ECG BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEPT VSBY AT 7 PLUS AS THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT THE SURFACE WILL GET
CLOSE TO SATURATION BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT ECG. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES COULD GET A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE TAF PERIOD BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS
AND GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME LIMITED CIGS/VSBY...MAINLY NO LOWER THAN MVFR...
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
806 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WAS
HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED PCPN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OUT ON MONDAY.

EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LAYERED CLOUDINESS ABOVE 10K FT OVER THE TAF
SITES. THE COLUMN WAS RELATIVELY DRY BELOW THAT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE MOIST AIR TO AROUND 5-8K FT OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIFT WILL BE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
CHC TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ORF AND ECG BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEPT VSBY AT 7 PLUS AS THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT THE SURFACE WILL GET
CLOSE TO SATURATION BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT ECG. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES COULD GET A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE TAF PERIOD BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS
AND GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME LIMITED CIGS/VSBY...MAINLY NO LOWER THAN MVFR...
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
806 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WAS
HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED PCPN OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR OUT ON MONDAY.

EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...RADAR AND SATELLITE AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LAYERED CLOUDINESS ABOVE 10K FT OVER THE TAF
SITES. THE COLUMN WAS RELATIVELY DRY BELOW THAT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A LOWERING OF THE MOIST AIR TO AROUND 5-8K FT OVER SRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIFT WILL BE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
CHC TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ORF AND ECG BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEPT VSBY AT 7 PLUS AS THERE ARE DOUBTS THAT THE SURFACE WILL GET
CLOSE TO SATURATION BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT ECG. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES COULD GET A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE TAF PERIOD BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS
AND GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH A FEW PERIODS
OF SLGT TO LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY. SOME LIMITED CIGS/VSBY...MAINLY NO LOWER THAN MVFR...
MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO
20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFINED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC
AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE
THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO
20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFINED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC
AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE
THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO
20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFINED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC
AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE
THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302011
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER
RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN.

WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO
20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFINED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC
AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE
THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN THE NORTH AND 2-3 FT
SOUTH. WAVES ACROSS THE BAY 1-2 FT. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE WATER. WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU
WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM/DAP





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION.
IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF
THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO
20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFINED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC
AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE
THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING NNE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN VLY
TOWARD OUR REGION...AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS COASTAL SC...AND EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. DESPITE
ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW
LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30% POP
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NE NC COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT AS THIS MOISTURE PUSHES
ACROSS, A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT. HV THEREFORE GONE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THESE AREAS. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND
MILDER OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE AREAS FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. ACCOUNTED FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
FIRST SLUG OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN PUSHES OFFSHORE/ HOWEVER,
WITH SW FLOW BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES MON/MON
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL
LIFT/ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. MOVED POPS A BIT FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TIMING SLOWING SLIGHTLY. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. BY ALL INDICATIONS, SFC FRONT
LOCATES FROM NEAR HATTERAS TO JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST...AND THUS
EXPECT ANY ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE COASTAL PLAIN.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE SE
COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO THE OZARKS. MODELS EVENTUALLY CLOSE THIS WAVE OFF
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE ANTECEDENT
MOIST AIRMASS AND UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORCING
FOR ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS WEAK AND MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS. WILL CARRY A 20% POP
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND
AROUND 90/LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS
EACH DAY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION.
IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF
THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO
20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFINED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC
AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE
THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS
REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN
VLY TOWARD OUR REGION OUT IN BETWEEN WEAKNESS BETWEEN CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED
TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. ADJUSTED
HIGHS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO...AND EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO HIGHS
OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BR DRAWN NORTH
TONIGHT. DESPITE ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30-40% POP ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THESE AREAS.
OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND MILD CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE
AREAS INTO THE AFTN MONDAY...AND AFTER PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF
12Z/30 DATA, WILL LIKELY INCREASE POP MON NIGHT INTO CHC RANGE OVER
NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

TUESDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK
WEST ACROSS THE SE COAST. EXPECT A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACRS
THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. EXPECT
HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS
FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY
FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE
BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO
20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFIED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC AND
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE
THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS
REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN
VLY TOWARD OUR REGION OUT IN BETWEEN WEAKNESS BETWEEN CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED
TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. ADJUSTED
HIGHS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO...AND EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO HIGHS
OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BR DRAWN NORTH
TONIGHT. DESPITE ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30-40% POP ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THESE AREAS.
OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND MILD CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE
AREAS INTO THE AFTN MONDAY...AND AFTER PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF
12Z/30 DATA, WILL LIKELY INCREASE POP MON NIGHT INTO CHC RANGE OVER
NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

TUESDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK
WEST ACROSS THE SE COAST. EXPECT A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACRS
THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. EXPECT
HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS
FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY
FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE
BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. BKN- OVC HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO
20KFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN CONFIED TO UPSTATE SC AND SOUTHERN NC THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NC AND
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECT BKN- OVC CLOUDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 8-12KFT AGL LATE
THIS EVENING AT ECG...ORF AND PHF AND THEN DOWN TO 3-5KFT AT ECG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AT ECG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS ORF OVERNIGHT THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND POSE NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WINDS REMAIN SE TO SW AND LESS THAN 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS INDICATED MAINLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY. MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/JAO
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301651
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1251 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS
REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN
VLY TOWARD OUR REGION OUT IN BETWEEN WEAKNESS BETWEEN CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED
TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. ADJUSTED
HIGHS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO...AND EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO HIGHS
OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BR DRAWN NORTH
TONIGHT. DESPITE ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30-40% POP ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THESE AREAS.
OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND MILD CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE
AREAS INTO THE AFTN MONDAY...AND AFTER PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF
12Z/30 DATA, WILL LIKELY INCREASE POP MON NIGHT INTO CHC RANGE OVER
NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

TUESDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK
WEST ACROSS THE SE COAST. EXPECT A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACRS
THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. EXPECT
HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS
FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY
FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE
BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K
FT AGL WILL PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FOR TODAY...BKN-OVC
HIGH CLOUDS LOWER TO AROUND 10-15K FT AGL LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE
REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. SFC WINDS BECOME SLY INLAND...REMAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
NEAR THE COAST. SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS
INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MAINLY DRY AND VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301651
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1251 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS
REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN
VLY TOWARD OUR REGION OUT IN BETWEEN WEAKNESS BETWEEN CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED
TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. ADJUSTED
HIGHS DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO...AND EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO HIGHS
OF YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL BR DRAWN NORTH
TONIGHT. DESPITE ONLY WEAK OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS, MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TIMING TO BE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH MAJORITY OF 30-40% POP ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THAT A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THESE AREAS.
OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AND MILD CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY 65 TO 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE
AREAS INTO THE AFTN MONDAY...AND AFTER PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF
12Z/30 DATA, WILL LIKELY INCREASE POP MON NIGHT INTO CHC RANGE OVER
NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE MUGGY MON W/ HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

TUESDAY... WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK
WEST ACROSS THE SE COAST. EXPECT A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACRS
THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. EXPECT
HIGHS TUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS
FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY
FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE
BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K
FT AGL WILL PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FOR TODAY...BKN-OVC
HIGH CLOUDS LOWER TO AROUND 10-15K FT AGL LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE
REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. SFC WINDS BECOME SLY INLAND...REMAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
NEAR THE COAST. SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS
INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MAINLY DRY AND VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1021 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE NC
COAST. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS UPPER LOW
PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT LOW LEVELS BELOW H9-85 LIKELY REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT DO ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY
THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. THUS, DESPITE THE INCREASING
THICKNESSES AND RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT VALUES...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY TONIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET ABSORBED
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE ONLY WEAK
OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS,
MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS. TRENDS APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LINE OF
20-30% POPS TO INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC BY EARLY MON
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE INTO MON AFTN...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON NIGHT
OVER NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE HUMID MON WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST
ACROSS THE SE COAST. WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL NC COUNTIES, EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT HIGHS TUE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS
FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY
FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE
BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K
FT AGL WILL PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FOR TODAY...BKN-OVC
HIGH CLOUDS LOWER TO AROUND 10-15K FT AGL LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE
REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. SFC WINDS BECOME SLY INLAND...REMAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
NEAR THE COAST. SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS
INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MAINLY DRY AND VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1021 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE NC
COAST. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS UPPER LOW
PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT LOW LEVELS BELOW H9-85 LIKELY REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT DO ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY
THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. THUS, DESPITE THE INCREASING
THICKNESSES AND RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT VALUES...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY TONIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET ABSORBED
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE ONLY WEAK
OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS,
MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS. TRENDS APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LINE OF
20-30% POPS TO INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC BY EARLY MON
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE INTO MON AFTN...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON NIGHT
OVER NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE HUMID MON WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST
ACROSS THE SE COAST. WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL NC COUNTIES, EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT HIGHS TUE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS
FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY
FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE
BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K
FT AGL WILL PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE MORE THAN
PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT EXPECT
NO IMPACTS ON TAF SITES. FOR TODAY...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS LOWER TO
AROUND 10-15K FT AGL LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SFC WINDS BECOME SLY
INLAND...REMAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST. SPEEDS AOB 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS
INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MAINLY DRY AND VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 300805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1021 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND OFF THE NC
COAST. IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS UPPER LOW
PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT LOW LEVELS BELOW H9-85 LIKELY REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT DO ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY
THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. THUS, DESPITE THE INCREASING
THICKNESSES AND RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT VALUES...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY TONIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET ABSORBED
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE ONLY WEAK
OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS,
MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS. TRENDS APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LINE OF
20-30% POPS TO INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND NE NC BY EARLY MON
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN
SHORE INTO MON AFTN...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON NIGHT
OVER NE NC ZONES. A BIT MORE HUMID MON WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST
ACROSS THE SE COAST. WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL NC COUNTIES, EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL CARRY A 20% POP IN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING
ACRS THE FAR S/SE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT HIGHS TUE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER RETREATS
FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH MID-UPPER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY
FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE
BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K
FT AGL WILL PERSIST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE MORE THAN
PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT EXPECT
NO IMPACTS ON TAF SITES. FOR TODAY...BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS LOWER TO
AROUND 10-15K FT AGL LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SFC WINDS BECOME SLY
INLAND...REMAINING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST. SPEEDS AOB 10
KT.

OUTLOOK...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SLGT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS IS
INDICATED MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MAINLY DRY AND VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE NC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE GULF
STREAM. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW (SE TO E) AOB 10 KT. SEAS 2-3 FT IN
THE NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH. WAVES 1-2 FT. AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...FLOW
BECOMES NELY BEFORE BECOMING SLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS
REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL
PUSH SPEEDS TO 10-15 KT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATER.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY SW TO W THRU WEDS...AOB 15 KT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM




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