Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021705
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
105 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES
NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINING
IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. TO THE WEST, SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTN.

MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE
STATES WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. SW
FLOW/STRONG WAA WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FORECAST ALREADY BEGINNING TO MIX BACK INTO THE MID
60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE
98-103 F RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WL AVG AROUND +1.5 TO +2 ST DEV ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...AND WILL APPROACH AND PERHAPS MATCH DAILY MAX
TEMP RECORDS (PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE WELL-
CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/WARMING
ALOFT. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED A SILENT POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NE NC ALONG POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN
COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP (ALBEIT LOW-END CHANCE) HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, SHUNTING THE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.

WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 21Z/5 PM. WHILE PWATS
PROGGED AROUND 1.8 INCHES...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE AT ISO-SCT.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, BUT HELD OUT MENTION FOR NOW. MILD AND MUGGY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WASHES OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED, AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL AND DOWNSLOPE/WLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WED AS WEAK
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDS AND
THURS...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE
OVER THE SRN LOCAL AREA.

HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY +1 STD DEV THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD,
GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEG INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY IN WARM SW
FLOW. SW WINDS WILL AVG AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCE
WILL BE FROM 00-06Z/WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
COVERAGE WILL TEND TO BE SCATTERED SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS
NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. DOES APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED
OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM
N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY
SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021705
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
105 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES
NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FEATURES MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINING
IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. TO THE WEST, SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE AFTN.

MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE
STATES WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. SW
FLOW/STRONG WAA WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FORECAST ALREADY BEGINNING TO MIX BACK INTO THE MID
60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE
98-103 F RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WL AVG AROUND +1.5 TO +2 ST DEV ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...AND WILL APPROACH AND PERHAPS MATCH DAILY MAX
TEMP RECORDS (PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE WELL-
CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/WARMING
ALOFT. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED A SILENT POP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NE NC ALONG POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST IN
COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP (ALBEIT LOW-END CHANCE) HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM AS THE OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO
THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT, SHUNTING THE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.

WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 21Z/5 PM. WHILE PWATS
PROGGED AROUND 1.8 INCHES...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE AT ISO-SCT.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, BUT HELD OUT MENTION FOR NOW. MILD AND MUGGY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WASHES OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED, AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL AND DOWNSLOPE/WLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WED AS WEAK
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDS AND
THURS...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE
OVER THE SRN LOCAL AREA.

HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY +1 STD DEV THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD,
GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEG INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY IN WARM SW
FLOW. SW WINDS WILL AVG AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCE
WILL BE FROM 00-06Z/WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
COVERAGE WILL TEND TO BE SCATTERED SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS
NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. DOES APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED
OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM
N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY
SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
SRN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE STATES WITH A
WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ECHO FREE LOCAL
AREA WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE MORNING WITH MILD MORNING TEMPS.

FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND LIFT INTO THE NE STATES
AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE. WAA IN
SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AROUND 20C (~+1 STD DEV).
COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH...HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO MIX BACK INTO THE
MID 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB
100. FORECAST HIGHS AVG AROUND +1.5 TO +2 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF RECORDS (PLEASE SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO
BE WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES...AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NE NC ALONG
POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP (ALBEIT LOW-END
CHANCE) HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM AS THE FRONT DROPS THRU THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE PUSHES
OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL RESULT IN
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
PWATS PROGGED AROUND 1.8 INCHES...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDS AS WLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDS AS WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN PORTION OF
THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDS
AND THURS...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E
RIDGE OVER THE SRN LOCAL AREA.

HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY +1 STD DEV THRU THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY
AROUND 90 DEG INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY IN WARM SW
FLOW. SW WINDS WILL AVG AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCE
WILL BE FROM 00-06Z/WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
COVERAGE WILL TEND TO BE SCATTERED SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS
NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. DOES APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED
OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM
N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY
SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
SRN CONUS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE STATES WITH A
WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS ECHO FREE LOCAL
AREA WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE MORNING WITH MILD MORNING TEMPS.

FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND LIFT INTO THE NE STATES
AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE. WAA IN
SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH H85 TEMPS TO AROUND 20C (~+1 STD DEV).
COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH...HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO MIX BACK INTO THE
MID 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB
100. FORECAST HIGHS AVG AROUND +1.5 TO +2 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF RECORDS (PLEASE SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO
BE WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES...AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NE NC ALONG
POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP (ALBEIT LOW-END
CHANCE) HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SHORT TERM AS THE FRONT DROPS THRU THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE PUSHES
OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL RESULT IN
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
PWATS PROGGED AROUND 1.8 INCHES...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA/JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WEDS AS WLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WEDS AS WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN PORTION OF
THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS WEDS
AND THURS...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E
RIDGE OVER THE SRN LOCAL AREA.

HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY +1 STD DEV THRU THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY
AROUND 90 DEG INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY IN WARM SW
FLOW. SW WINDS WILL AVG AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCE
WILL BE FROM 00-06Z/WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
COVERAGE WILL TEND TO BE SCATTERED SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS
NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. DOES APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED
OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM
N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY
SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020628
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF NOW OFFSHORE. WEAK
SFC RIDGING KEEPS FA DRY OVERNIGHT. M CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY IN WARM SW
FLOW. SW WINDS WILL AVG AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCE
WILL BE FROM 00-06Z/WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
COVERAGE WILL TEND TO BE SCATTERED SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS
NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. DOES APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED
OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM
N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY
SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020628
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF NOW OFFSHORE. WEAK
SFC RIDGING KEEPS FA DRY OVERNIGHT. M CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY IN WARM SW
FLOW. SW WINDS WILL AVG AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCE
WILL BE FROM 00-06Z/WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
COVERAGE WILL TEND TO BE SCATTERED SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS
NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. DOES APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED
OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM
N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY
SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020113
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
913 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF NOW OFFSHORE. WEAK
SFC RIDGING KEEPS FA DRY OVERNIGHT. M CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020113
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
913 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF NOW OFFSHORE. WEAK
SFC RIDGING KEEPS FA DRY OVERNIGHT. M CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012333
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC TROF NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DSPT NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOSS OF HTNG. KEPT 20-30 POP ACROSS THE
CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS THRU THE EVENING. WEAK SFC RIDGING
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. MSTLY CLR TO PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012333
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC TROF NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DSPT NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOSS OF HTNG. KEPT 20-30 POP ACROSS THE
CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS THRU THE EVENING. WEAK SFC RIDGING
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. MSTLY CLR TO PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012242
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
642 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC TROF NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DSPT NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOSS OF HTNG. KEPT 20-30 POP ACROSS THE
CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS THRU THE EVENING. WEAK SFC RIDGING
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. MSTLY CLR TO PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012242
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
642 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC TROF NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DSPT NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOSS OF HTNG. KEPT 20-30 POP ACROSS THE
CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS THRU THE EVENING. WEAK SFC RIDGING
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. MSTLY CLR TO PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH RUNS INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET OR SO, MAINLY ALONG
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, STORM MODE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR PULSE/DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE ADDED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 00Z.

WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH RUNS INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET OR SO, MAINLY ALONG
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, STORM MODE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR PULSE/DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE ADDED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 00Z.

WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH RUNS INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET OR SO, MAINLY ALONG
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, STORM MODE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR PULSE/DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE ADDED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 00Z.

WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
359 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH RUNS INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNSET OR SO, MAINLY ALONG
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE, STORM MODE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR PULSE/DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY...AND WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE ADDED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF I-95 THROUGH 00Z.

WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT W/LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011629
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1229 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011629
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1229 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PASS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH 12Z AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW STEADILY VEERS TO THE SW
ALLOWING FOR A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE NO
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF 10-15MPH
SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S
ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB
100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST DEV ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF RECORDS...WHICH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AS A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...AKQ






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010809
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PASS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH 12Z AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW STEADILY VEERS TO THE SW
ALLOWING FOR A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING. 850MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE NO
SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF 10-15MPH
SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH LOW 90S
ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB
100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST DEV ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF RECORDS...WHICH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AS A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL) GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND AND SALISBURY.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF A RICHMOND TO SALISBURY
LINE...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSBY THRU EARLY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...SO WILL ADJUST TAFS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...MIXING WILL
PRECLUDE FOG TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AVG 5-7 KT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
LOCALES CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND FOR SOME STRATUS...WITH KECG
FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR CIGS BY 8-9Z.

FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA. SLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION DSPTG ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS SINCE SUNSET
BUT CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ALONG SFC TROF MOVG EAST ACROSS
NRN VA. MODELS STILL MIXED ON JUST HOW MUCH LONGER AND HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS CONVECTION GETS...SO KEPT CHC POPS FROM THE NRN NECK
ON EAST TOWARD THE LWR MD & VA ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH ERLY MORNING
HRS AS TROF SLOW TO MOVE EAST. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY AND MUGGY.
LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION DSPTG ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS SINCE SUNSET
BUT CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ALONG SFC TROF MOVG EAST ACROSS
NRN VA. MODELS STILL MIXED ON JUST HOW MUCH LONGER AND HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS CONVECTION GETS...SO KEPT CHC POPS FROM THE NRN NECK
ON EAST TOWARD THE LWR MD & VA ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH ERLY MORNING
HRS AS TROF SLOW TO MOVE EAST. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY AND MUGGY.
LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010033
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312317
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312317
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER INTERESTING AS THEY BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO THE CAP NOTED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DATA ALSO SHOWS THE
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY ACROSS NRN VA REMAINING IN TACT WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SE AND CROSSING THE LWR MD AND VA ERN SHORE / NRN NECK
AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS (30-505) WITH THIS UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUST FCST
AS NECESSARY. OTW...M CLR TO PT CLDY AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO
NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO
EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

STUCK WITH 20-30% RAIN CHANCES LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE. BEST FORCING WILL SLOWLY PUSH FROM BLUE RIDGE TO
NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TNGT. ALSO
EXTENDED SLIGHT POP INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK. WE COULD SEE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THESE AREAS AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RVR VALLEY PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MILD AND MUGGY EVENING WITH EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT`S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT 18Z...WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING...AND A
FAIR AMOUNT MID- HIGH CLOUDS. SLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
10-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS NOTED AT KRIC AND KSBY. ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF KRIC....AND POSSIBLY THE MD PORTION OF THE DELMARVA.
ATTM...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHETHER
ANY TSTMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE PIEDMONT/CENTRAL DELMARVA. SHOULD
BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS AFTER 06Z AT KECG...WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1154 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS SE ONTARIO. THE SE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

A 20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS BEST FORCING
SHUNTS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS NORTHERN VA/SE PA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTN/TNGT. OTHERWISE...MOIST S-SW FLOW BRINGING A VERY
WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. BUMPED
HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY PER LATEST OBS...YIELDING HIGHS FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 90/LOW 90S WEST OF THE BAY.

MILD AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH ANY SHRAS OVER/NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 311142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
742 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TODAY...PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND THIN STRATUS ACROSS THE ERN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA CAUSING MVFR/BRIEF IFR AT KECG/KSBY...AND OTHER
AIRPORTS IN THE AREA. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z...AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID- HIGH CLOUDS
(DECKS 4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT...WHERE STRATUS APPEARS TO BE
MORE CONSENTRATED...AND MAY TAKE TIL 14-15Z TO LIFT/DISSIPATE.
ANTICIPATE ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND WEST OF KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN RETURN FLOW OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED WINDS OF 5-8
KT AT THE TAF SITES...INHIBITING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. GUIDANCE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...SO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN LATEST SET OF
TAFS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL WILL STREAM OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR STRATUS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SCT-BKN
MID CLOUDS WITH DECKS 2-4K FT POSSIBLE FROM KRIC TO KORF.

FOR TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS (DECKS
4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT. ANTICIPATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
415 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
DEEP SSW FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TRIGGERED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE HAS SHEARED APART.

THE REMNANT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS N OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A
20-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND
MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY.
FORCING WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN
20%...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...AS W/SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM COULD DRIFT IN
FROM THE NW LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. THICKNESS
TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND AS WELL AS MAINTAINING SOME
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S BY TUESDAY
INLAND...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. HIGHS OF THESE
MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV ABOVE SEASONAL
MEANS...AND COULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS SINCE JULY 23. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN RETURN FLOW OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HAS HELPED PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED WINDS OF 5-8
KT AT THE TAF SITES...INHIBITING ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. GUIDANCE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...SO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN LATEST SET OF
TAFS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL WILL STREAM OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR STRATUS IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SCT-BKN
MID CLOUDS WITH DECKS 2-4K FT POSSIBLE FROM KRIC TO KORF.

FOR TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS (DECKS
4-6K FT AGL). SLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT. ANTICIPATE ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF
KRIC.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK.
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THRU TUES. ONLY PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS RESULTED IN SLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. GRADIENT AND SLY CHANNELING OVER THE
BAY HAVE RESULTED IN SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-3
FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU EARLY MORNING BEFORE
SPEEDS WANE MID-LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC TODAY THRU MON AS SLY WINDS PERSIST. WARM WATERS
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SLY CHANNELING TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT. PERSISTENT SLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. WAVES 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE MIDDLE BAY. FLOW BECOMES SWLY TUES AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS AVG 10-15 KT TUES WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TUES
NIGHT-WEDS. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF
CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM






000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310042
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
842 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISLTD SHWRS HAVE DSPTD SINCE SS. MODEL/BUFFER SNDGS MIXED ON WHETHER
A STRATUS LAYER OR PTCHY FOG DVLPS TONIGHT DUE TO A LGT SE FLOW AND
DP TMPS ARND 70. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
PTCHY FOG TO AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTW... PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT(4-6KT)...HELPING TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310042
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
842 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ISLTD SHWRS HAVE DSPTD SINCE SS. MODEL/BUFFER SNDGS MIXED ON WHETHER
A STRATUS LAYER OR PTCHY FOG DVLPS TONIGHT DUE TO A LGT SE FLOW AND
DP TMPS ARND 70. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
PTCHY FOG TO AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTW... PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT(4-6KT)...HELPING TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE IS BRINGING A MOIST S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HELD ON TO A LOW POP FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRAS ALONG THE
FRONT AND JUST NORTH MAINLY FROM ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER TOWARDS
THE SOUNDS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE AND DISORGANIZED IN
NATURE. SHRAS FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY, MUGGY
AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT(4-6KT)...HELPING TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...SAM







000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310029
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
829 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE IS BRINGING A MOIST S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HELD ON TO A LOW POP FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRAS ALONG THE
FRONT AND JUST NORTH MAINLY FROM ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER TOWARDS
THE SOUNDS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE AND DISORGANIZED IN
NATURE. SHRAS FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY, MUGGY
AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT(4-6KT)...HELPING TO MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE IS BRINGING A MOIST S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HELD ON TO A LOW POP FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRAS ALONG THE
FRONT AND JUST NORTH MAINLY FROM ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER TOWARDS
THE SOUNDS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE AND DISORGANIZED IN
NATURE. SHRAS FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY, MUGGY
AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY...WITH MVFR STILL OCCURRING
AT KRIC/KORF AS OF 18Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCTD TO BKN CU
MOST AREAS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
STAY UP OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED ALL DAY.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT JUST OFFSHORE IS BRINGING A MOIST S-SE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HELD ON TO A LOW POP FOR SOME ISOLATED SHRAS ALONG THE
FRONT AND JUST NORTH MAINLY FROM ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER TOWARDS
THE SOUNDS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE AND DISORGANIZED IN
NATURE. SHRAS FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME LOW STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY, MUGGY
AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AS
A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS THAT DESPITE A MODERATELY MOIST/HUMID
AIRMASS, LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND LACK OF AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY FOR
MOST. TRENDED FORECAST POP DOWN TO ~20%, REFLECTING ONLY SOME
ISOLATED PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARDS SLIGHTLY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HUNG UP ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION SIMILARLY REMAINING ORIENTED JUST TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO
THE TWO INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MINOR PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE PIEDMONT WOULD INDICATE SOME SUBTLE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS...SO DID MAINTAIN A 20-30 POP
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL (DIURNALLY DRIVEN) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR HIGHS, THICKNESS TOOLS CONTINUE TO RUN A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 90S INLAND. GIVEN CLIMO AND RECENT ANALOGS, STAYED JUST
BELOW THICKNESS TOOL OUTPUT...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
INLAND...85 TO 90 AT THE COAST BOTH MON/TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TOWARD THE AREA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM DESPITE
LACKING MOISTURE AND A WEAKENING FRONT. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE
UPR 80S TO LWR 90S UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LGT WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA AND MOST PRECIP MISSING THE
FA. AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT WASHES OUT OVR THE CAROLINAS WHILE HI
PRES BLDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A SHRA/TSTM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS EACH DAY. HI TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY...WITH MVFR STILL OCCURRING
AT KRIC/KORF AS OF 18Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCTD TO BKN CU
MOST AREAS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
STAY UP OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED ALL DAY.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC
HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE TNGT WITH LO PRES PASSING WELL N OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. EXPECT SELY WINDS THIS EVENING BCMG SLY OVERNIGHT...AVGG 10-15
KT OVR THE BAY/CSTL WTRS AND 5-10 KT OVR THE RIVERS/SOUND. WAVES OVR
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WINDS CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS OVR THE BAY BOTH EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR
NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FM THE W. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO REACH THE WTRS BY LATE WED...BUT DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS









000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SE VA/NE NC BORDER BACK INTO FAR WESTERN VA. THE
LOW STRATUS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO LIFT/SCATTER
OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS, SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION IS RATHER WEAK TODAY, AS FORCING REMAINS WELL BACK
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FARTHER WEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
REMOVED POP FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
BUT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW ISOLATED PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS...MAINLY SE OF A
WILLIAMSBURG TO JACKSON.

OVERALL, A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON, WITH AFTN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S NORTH (ALONG WITH EASTERN SHORE AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS)...WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUN AND MON...UPR-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BUT WITH SFC HI
PRES REMAINING OFFSHORE WITH A PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 90 TO THE LWR 90S
EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.

DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THE
MAIN SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO THE TWO
INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. FOR SUNDAY AFTN...HAVE 30
PERCENT POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES NORTH TO NEAR
CAROLINE COUNTY AND ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WITH LOWER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...MAINLY FROM THE
GFS...OF SOME PCPN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
HAVE SLGT TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS. CHANCES FOR PCPN
ARE 30 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTN WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS
OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED FROM THE GULF
COAST TO TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOUT 5-10 F ABOVE AVG
TUE BEFORE FALLING A FEW DEGREES WED-FRI (ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK).

AFTER A FAIRLY HIGH CHC FOR SCATTERED TSTMS MON EVENING (~40%)...TUE
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD
FRONT THAT IS SLOW TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WILL CARRY A 20-30% CHC FOR
TUE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER
HOWEVER...AS FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AND BEST
LIFT/FORCING REMAIN N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CARRY 20-30%
MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC WED AS THE BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO
PUSH THROUGH. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WED.

BY WED NIGHT-FRI...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC FORECAST
DOES PLACE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT
DOES NOT LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG 85-90 F THU/FRI
(COOLEST ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE). GENLY DRY /PARTLY-MOSTLY
SUNNY BUT WILL KEEP DIURNAL AFTN/EARLY EVENING 20% POPS ACRS THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY...WITH MVFR STILL OCCURRING
AT KRIC/KORF AS OF 18Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCTD TO BKN CU
MOST AREAS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
STAY UP OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED ALL DAY.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 10 KT PERSISTS OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST TODAY AS FLOW
VEERS TO THE S-SE OVER THE WATER. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE...REMAINING SUB-SCA. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL EFFECTS WITH S-SE FLOW CHANNELING UP
THE BAY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KT (AND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT). HOWEVER...HEADLINES NOT
ANTICIPATED. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT...BUT PERSISTENT S-SE FLOW
COULD PUSH SEAS TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING TO
3-4 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT...BUT MAY BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO REACH THE WATERS TUES NIGHT-WEDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM








000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MIDDAY WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SE VA/NE NC BORDER BACK INTO FAR WESTERN VA. THE
LOW STRATUS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO LIFT/SCATTER
OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS, SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION IS RATHER WEAK TODAY, AS FORCING REMAINS WELL BACK
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FARTHER WEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
REMOVED POP FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
BUT HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR A FEW ISOLATED PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS...MAINLY SE OF A
WILLIAMSBURG TO JACKSON.

OVERALL, A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON, WITH AFTN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S NORTH (ALONG WITH EASTERN SHORE AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS)...WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUN AND MON...UPR-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BUT WITH SFC HI
PRES REMAINING OFFSHORE WITH A PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 90 TO THE LWR 90S
EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE
COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.

DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THE
MAIN SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH. THIS IS DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING INTO THE TWO
INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. FOR SUNDAY AFTN...HAVE 30
PERCENT POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES NORTH TO NEAR
CAROLINE COUNTY AND ON THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WITH LOWER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...MAINLY FROM THE
GFS...OF SOME PCPN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
HAVE SLGT TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS. CHANCES FOR PCPN
ARE 30 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTN WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS
OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US COAST...
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED FROM THE GULF
COAST TO TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOUT 5-10 F ABOVE AVG
TUE BEFORE FALLING A FEW DEGREES WED-FRI (ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK).

AFTER A FAIRLY HIGH CHC FOR SCATTERED TSTMS MON EVENING (~40%)...TUE
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD
FRONT THAT IS SLOW TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WILL CARRY A 20-30% CHC FOR
TUE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER
HOWEVER...AS FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AND BEST
LIFT/FORCING REMAIN N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CARRY 20-30%
MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC WED AS THE BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO
PUSH THROUGH. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WED.

BY WED NIGHT-FRI...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC FORECAST
DOES PLACE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT
DOES NOT LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG 85-90 F THU/FRI
(COOLEST ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE). GENLY DRY /PARTLY-MOSTLY
SUNNY BUT WILL KEEP DIURNAL AFTN/EARLY EVENING 20% POPS ACRS THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY...WITH MVFR STILL OCCURRING
AT KRIC/KORF AS OF 18Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCTD TO BKN CU
MOST AREAS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
STAY UP OVERNIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL...EXCEPT AT KSBY...WHERE ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE LESS MIXING AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG. HWVR...DID NOT GO
AS LOW AS GUIDANCE. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED ALL DAY.

ALTHO REGION WILL BE IN A WARM HUMID AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCTD/WIDELY
SCTD AT BEST. NEXT COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 10 KT PERSISTS OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST TODAY AS FLOW
VEERS TO THE S-SE OVER THE WATER. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE...REMAINING SUB-SCA. WITH RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL EFFECTS WITH S-SE FLOW CHANNELING UP
THE BAY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KT (AND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT). HOWEVER...HEADLINES NOT
ANTICIPATED. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT...BUT PERSISTENT S-SE FLOW
COULD PUSH SEAS TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING TO
3-4 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVES GENERALLY
1-2 FT...BUT MAY BUILD TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE. SEAS AVG 2-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. NEXT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO REACH THE WATERS TUES NIGHT-WEDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...SAM







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities