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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 092149
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
449 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER OBS/REPORTS
INDICATED EMBEDDED SLEET WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER THE REGION.
THIS PROVES JUST HOW COLD AND DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS...WITH H85 TEMPS
-6 TO -8C ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

ANOMALOUS MERIDIONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY
A DEEP TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...~991MB LOW PRESSURE HAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NERN LOCAL
AREA...PROVIDING BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THE NRN NECK AND
MD ERN SHORE. NAM 285K THETA SURFACES HAVE HANDLED THE EARLIER
PRECIP WELL...SO CONTINUING WITH THAT TREND FAVORS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE...AS WELL AS SE
VA/NE NC THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN NECK AND MD ERN SHORE...BUT EXPECT ALL RAIN
SE VA/NE NC AS THE WARM LAYER IS DEEPER AND BETTER MIXED NEAR THE
COAST. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE MD ERN SHORE THRU
6PM AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX REACHES NRN VA THIS
EVENING...DEVELOPING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER OVER THE
NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THRU THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS EVENING AS A COLDER/DRIER
AIR MASS SURGES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THE NRN NECK/MD ERN SHORE...BUT SFC
TEMPS FORECAST TO HOVER IN THE MID 30S. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S RESULTING IN WET BULBS IN THE LOW 30S. DO NOT EXPECT THE
BEST DYNAMICS TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE THE BEST
MOISTURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AOB HALF AN
INCH...MAINLY OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS THRU LATE TONIGHT FOR THE MD ERN SHORE AS THE VORT MAX
PUSHES THRU. SKY REMAINS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH WLY WINDS 10-15 MPH...PREVENTING A SHARP DROP OFF IN TEMPS.
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS/DEEP UPPER TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WEDS AS A
STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THRU THE DAY WEDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY WEDS MORNING AS THE POTENT VORT MAX PUSHES OFF THE
DELMARVA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEDS AS A COLD/DRY AIR
MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO
THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. HAVE STAYED ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S. WLY WIND 10-15 MPH.

TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDS NIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AS PWATS WILL BE AOB 0.10
INCHES...BUT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE SO WILL MAINTAIN 20-30
POPS THERE. COLD WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS PIEDMONT
TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST. DRY/COLD THURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE...USHERING IN AN EVEN COLDER AND DRIER ARCTIC AIR
MASS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S...OR -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV.
SKY AVERAGES SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE GULF STATES.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRI...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S (-1 STD DEV).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...ARCTIC AIRMASS IS USHERED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A FEW SNOW SHOWER
SAT MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR -SN/-RASN ACROSS NE NC.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT WITH
925MB TEMPS DROPPING 10C THROUGH THE DAY. THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE DROPPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WEST...CENTERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPR 30S. COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN SAT NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEEN SUN
MORNING(LOWS OVER 20F BELOW NORMAL). EXPECT HIGHS IN MID/UPR 20S ON
SUN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS SUN NIGHT.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ANOTHER
POTENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP
FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE U.S. THAT WILL MOVE NE
LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO
SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF
LOW. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST A MULTI-PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT WITH AN
ONSET OF WINTER PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A MIX ON TUES. PRECIP
PROGGED TO MOVE NE OFF THE COAST BY TUE NIGHT

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA CST THIS AFTN WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LO PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...BKN-OVC SKIES ARE COMMONPLACE OVER THE FA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
CONTINUING THIS AFTN. PREVAILED -RA THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INCLUDED FOR A RA/SN MIX LATER THIS AFTN AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY
HELP CHANGEOVER THE PCPN. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF -RA THIS AFTN AT KRIC.
WINDS REMAIN WLY AVGG 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT THRU FRI...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
7-9FT SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DROPPING TO 5-7FT OVERNIGHT.

MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUAL SHOTS OF COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HELP STRENGTHEN WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND NC/VA/MD COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO AVG 25-30KT WED MORNING THROUGH THUR NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATER
AND 20-25KT OVER THE BAY. EXPECT SEAS 3FT NEARSHORE UP TO 5/6FT 20NM
OFF THE COAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT. GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS STRONG
CAA ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW TO THE NE AND BUILDING HIGH FROM THE WEST. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO EXIST AS TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 20S AND TEENS SUN MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING
OVER 30KT. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY NR
THE NRN NECK AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HI SURF ADVSRYS HAVE ALL EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM/JAO
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...DAP
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 092104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER OBS/REPORTS
INDICATED EMBEDDED SLEET WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER THE REGION.
THIS PROVES JUST HOW COLD AND DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS...WITH H85 TEMPS
-6 TO -8C ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

ANOMALOUS MERIDIONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY
A DEEP TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...~991MB LOW PRESSURE HAS CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NERN LOCAL
AREA...PROVIDING BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THE NRN NECK AND
MD ERN SHORE. NAM 285K THETA SURFACES HAVE HANDLED THE EARLIER
PRECIP WELL...SO CONTINUING WITH THAT TREND FAVORS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE...AS WELL AS SE
VA/NE NC THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN NECK AND MD ERN SHORE...BUT EXPECT ALL RAIN
SE VA/NE NC AS THE WARM LAYER IS DEEPER AND BETTER MIXED NEAR THE
COAST. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE MD ERN SHORE THRU
6PM AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX REACHES NRN VA THIS
EVENING...DEVELOPING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER OVER THE
NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THRU THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS EVENING AS A COLDER/DRIER
AIR MASS SURGES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THE NRN NECK/MD ERN SHORE...BUT SFC
TEMPS FORECAST TO HOVER IN THE MID 30S. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S RESULTING IN WET BULBS IN THE LOW 30S. DO NOT EXPECT THE
BEST DYNAMICS TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE THE BEST
MOISTURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AOB HALF AN
INCH...MAINLY OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS THRU LATE TONIGHT FOR THE MD ERN SHORE AS THE VORT MAX
PUSHES THRU. SKY REMAINS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH WLY WINDS 10-15 MPH...PREVENTING A SHARP DROP OFF IN TEMPS.
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUS/DEEP UPPER TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WEDS AS A
STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THRU THE DAY WEDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY WEDS MORNING AS THE POTENT VORT MAX PUSHES OFF THE
DELMARVA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEDS AS A COLD/DRY AIR
MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO
THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. HAVE STAYED ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S. WLY WIND 10-15 MPH.

TROUGH AXIS ALIGNS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDS NIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AS PWATS WILL BE AOB 0.10
INCHES...BUT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE SO WILL MAINTAIN 20-30
POPS THERE. COLD WEDS NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS PIEDMONT
TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST. DRY/COLD THURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFFSHORE...USHERING IN AN EVEN COLDER AND DRIER ARCTIC AIR
MASS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 30S...OR -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV.
SKY AVERAGES SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURS NIGHT AND FRI AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE GULF STATES.
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRI...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LATE FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT STILL COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S (-1 STD DEV).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...ARCTIC AIRMASS IS USHERED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A FEW SNOW SHOWER
SAT MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR -SN/-RASN ACROSS NE NC.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT WITH
925MB TEMPS DROPPING 10C THROUGH THE DAY. THICKNESSES AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE DROPPING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WEST...CENTERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPR 30S. COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN SAT NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEEN SUN
MORNING(LOWS OVER 20F BELOW NORMAL). EXPECT HIGHS IN MID/UPR 20S ON
SUN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS SUN NIGHT.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERNS CONTINUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ANOTHER
POTENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP
FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE U.S. THAT WILL MOVE NE
LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO
SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF
LOW. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST A MULTI-PRECIPITATION TYPE EVENT WITH AN
ONSET OF WINTER PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO A MIX ON TUES. PRECIP
PROGGED TO MOVE NE OFF THE COAST BY TUE NIGHT

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA CST THIS AFTN WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LO PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...BKN-OVC SKIES ARE COMMONPLACE OVER THE FA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
CONTINUING THIS AFTN. PREVAILED -RA THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INCLUDED FOR A RA/SN MIX LATER THIS AFTN AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY
HELP CHANGEOVER THE PCPN. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF -RA THIS AFTN AT KRIC.
WINDS REMAIN WLY AVGG 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT THRU FRI...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOPE WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST. THAT LOW WILL
MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE
STILL BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FT EARLY THIS AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE INTO TNGT DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO
THU NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY NR
THE NRN NECK AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HI SURF ADVSRYS HAVE ALL EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM/JAO
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGH (-2 TO -3 STD DEV) IN THE EAST. AT THE
SFC...~995MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 300 MILES DUE EAST
OF THE VACAPES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A
COL/WEAK SFC TROUGHING OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
REGIONAL MOSAIC MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...LINGERING ONLY OVER THE ERN SHORE.

THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS MD/NRN VA AND
PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING TEMPS CLOSER TO
MAV/MET GUIDANCE BUT REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE LOWER 40S ACRS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A CONFINED TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY NE
LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30%
FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A MIX THROUGH MID
AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.

BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA CST THIS AFTN WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LO PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...BKN-OVC SKIES ARE COMMONPLACE OVER THE FA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
CONTINUING THIS AFTN. PREVAILED -RA THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INCLUDED FOR A RA/SN MIX LATER THIS AFTN AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY
HELP CHANGEOVER THE PCPN. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF -RA THIS AFTN AT KRIC.
WINDS REMAIN WLY AVGG 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT THRU FRI...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOPE WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST. THAT LOW WILL
MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE
STILL BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FT EARLY THIS AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE INTO TNGT DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO
THU NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY NR
THE NRN NECK AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HI SURF ADVSRYS HAVE ALL EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGH (-2 TO -3 STD DEV) IN THE EAST. AT THE
SFC...~995MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 300 MILES DUE EAST
OF THE VACAPES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A
COL/WEAK SFC TROUGHING OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
REGIONAL MOSAIC MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...LINGERING ONLY OVER THE ERN SHORE.

THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS MD/NRN VA AND
PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING TEMPS CLOSER TO
MAV/MET GUIDANCE BUT REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE LOWER 40S ACRS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A CONFINED TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY NE
LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30%
FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A MIX THROUGH MID
AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.

BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA CST THIS AFTN WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LO PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...BKN-OVC SKIES ARE COMMONPLACE OVER THE FA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
CONTINUING THIS AFTN. PREVAILED -RA THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INCLUDED FOR A RA/SN MIX LATER THIS AFTN AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY
HELP CHANGEOVER THE PCPN. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF -RA THIS AFTN AT KRIC.
WINDS REMAIN WLY AVGG 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT THRU FRI...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOPE WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST. THAT LOW WILL
MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE
STILL BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FT EARLY THIS AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE INTO TNGT DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO
THU NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY NR
THE NRN NECK AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HI SURF ADVSRYS HAVE ALL EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGH (-2 TO -3 STD DEV) IN THE EAST. AT THE
SFC...~995MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 300 MILES DUE EAST
OF THE VACAPES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A
COL/WEAK SFC TROUGHING OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
REGIONAL MOSAIC MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...LINGERING ONLY OVER THE ERN SHORE.

THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS MD/NRN VA AND
PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING TEMPS CLOSER TO
MAV/MET GUIDANCE BUT REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE LOWER 40S ACRS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A CONFINED TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY NE
LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30%
FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A MIX THROUGH MID
AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.

BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA CST THIS AFTN WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LO PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...BKN-OVC SKIES ARE COMMONPLACE OVER THE FA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
CONTINUING THIS AFTN. PREVAILED -RA THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INCLUDED FOR A RA/SN MIX LATER THIS AFTN AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY
HELP CHANGEOVER THE PCPN. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF -RA THIS AFTN AT KRIC.
WINDS REMAIN WLY AVGG 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT THRU FRI...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES CONTINUES TO DEVELOPE WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST. THAT LOW WILL
MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE
STILL BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FT EARLY THIS AFTN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE INTO TNGT DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO
THU NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY NR
THE NRN NECK AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HI SURF ADVSRYS HAVE ALL EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGH (-2 TO -3 STD DEV) IN THE EAST. AT THE
SFC...~995MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 300 MILES DUE EAST
OF THE VACAPES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A
COL/WEAK SFC TROUGHING OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
REGIONAL MOSAIC MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...LINGERING ONLY OVER THE ERN SHORE.

THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS MD/NRN VA AND
PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING TEMPS CLOSER TO
MAV/MET GUIDANCE BUT REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE LOWER 40S ACRS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A CONFINED TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY NE
LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30%
FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A MIX THROUGH MID
AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.

BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA CST THIS AFTN WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LO PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...BKN-OVC SKIES ARE COMMONPLACE OVER THE FA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
CONTINUING THIS AFTN. PREVAILED -RA THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INCLUDED FOR A RA/SN MIX LATER THIS AFTN AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY
HELP CHANGEOVER THE PCPN. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF -RA THIS AFTN AT KRIC.
WINDS REMAIN WLY AVGG 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT THRU FRI...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LIFTING THRU ENE PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNG...WHILE LO PRES WAS DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST.
THAT LO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO
TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE
SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FT EARLY THIS
MORNG...AND WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO
TNGT...DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA WED EVENG INTO THU
NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY NR
THE NRN NECK AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HI SURF ADVSRYS HAVE ALL EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
     100.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGH (-2 TO -3 STD DEV) IN THE EAST. AT THE
SFC...~995MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 300 MILES DUE EAST
OF THE VACAPES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A
COL/WEAK SFC TROUGHING OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
REGIONAL MOSAIC MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...LINGERING ONLY OVER THE ERN SHORE.

THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS MD/NRN VA AND
PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING TEMPS CLOSER TO
MAV/MET GUIDANCE BUT REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE LOWER 40S ACRS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A CONFINED TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY NE
LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30%
FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A MIX THROUGH MID
AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.

BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA CST THIS AFTN WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LO PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...BKN-OVC SKIES ARE COMMONPLACE OVER THE FA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
CONTINUING THIS AFTN. PREVAILED -RA THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INCLUDED FOR A RA/SN MIX LATER THIS AFTN AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY
HELP CHANGEOVER THE PCPN. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF -RA THIS AFTN AT KRIC.
WINDS REMAIN WLY AVGG 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT THRU FRI...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LIFTING THRU ENE PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNG...WHILE LO PRES WAS DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST.
THAT LO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO
TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE
SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FT EARLY THIS
MORNG...AND WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO
TNGT...DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA WED EVENG INTO THU
NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY NR
THE NRN NECK AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HI SURF ADVSRYS HAVE ALL EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
     100.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGH (-2 TO -3 STD DEV) IN THE EAST. AT THE
SFC...~995MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 300 MILES DUE EAST
OF THE VACAPES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A
COL/WEAK SFC TROUGHING OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
REGIONAL MOSAIC MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...LINGERING ONLY OVER THE ERN SHORE.

THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS MD/NRN VA AND
PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING TEMPS CLOSER TO
MAV/MET GUIDANCE BUT REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE LOWER 40S ACRS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A CONFINED TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY NE
LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30%
FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A MIX THROUGH MID
AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.

BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA CST THIS AFTN WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LO PRES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...BKN-OVC SKIES ARE COMMONPLACE OVER THE FA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSBY WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
CONTINUING THIS AFTN. PREVAILED -RA THERE WITH A TEMPO GROUP
INCLUDED FOR A RA/SN MIX LATER THIS AFTN AS COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY
HELP CHANGEOVER THE PCPN. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF -RA THIS AFTN AT KRIC.
WINDS REMAIN WLY AVGG 8-12 KT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT THRU FRI...AS HI
PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LIFTING THRU ENE PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNG...WHILE LO PRES WAS DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST.
THAT LO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO
TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE
SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FT EARLY THIS
MORNG...AND WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO
TNGT...DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA WED EVENG INTO THU
NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE AS WELL AS THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY NR
THE NRN NECK AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. HI SURF ADVSRYS HAVE ALL EXPIRED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
     100.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091534
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1034 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
ANOMALOUS TROUGH (-2 TO -3 STD DEV) IN THE EAST. AT THE
SFC...~995MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 300 MILES DUE EAST
OF THE VACAPES WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH A
COL/WEAK SFC TROUGHING OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST
REGIONAL MOSAIC MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...LINGERING ONLY OVER THE ERN SHORE.

THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS MD/NRN VA AND
PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING TEMPS CLOSER TO
MAV/MET GUIDANCE BUT REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE LOWER 40S ACRS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A CONFINED TO THE
NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY NE
LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30%
FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A MIX THROUGH MID
AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.

BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LIFTING THRU ENE PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNG...WHILE LO PRES WAS DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST.
THAT LO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO
TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE
SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FT EARLY THIS
MORNG...AND WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO
TNGT...DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA WED EVENG INTO THU
NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY AT NASSAWADOX...KIPTOPEKE...AND BISHOPS HEAD. HI
SURF ADVSRY CONTINUES THRU LATE MORNG FOR VA BEACH AND CURRITUCK
COASTLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
     100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091401
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
901 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~998 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF
THE SE VA COAST WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WNW THROUGH
CENTRAL VA. ANOTHER SFC LOW IS OVER LAKE HURON. ALOFT...LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER OHIO. THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS
MD/NRN VA AND PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS ONGOING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN SHORE WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY DRY CONDS
INLAND. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID HOWEVER STAY FIRMLY
ON THE COLD EDGE OF GUIDANCE FAVORING THE MET NUMBERS WHICH YIELDS
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE
LOWER 40S ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A
CONFINED TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW
END LIKELY NE LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY
ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30% FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A
MIX THROUGH MID AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.


BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LIFTING THRU ENE PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNG...WHILE LO PRES WAS DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST.
THAT LO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO
TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE
SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FT EARLY THIS
MORNG...AND WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO
TNGT...DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA WED EVENG INTO THU
NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY AT NASSAWADOX...KIPTOPEKE...AND BISHOPS HEAD. HI
SURF ADVSRY CONTINUES THRU LATE MORNG FOR VA BEACH AND CURRITUCK
COASTLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
     100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091401
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
901 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~998 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF
THE SE VA COAST WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WNW THROUGH
CENTRAL VA. ANOTHER SFC LOW IS OVER LAKE HURON. ALOFT...LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER OHIO. THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS
MD/NRN VA AND PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS ONGOING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN SHORE WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY DRY CONDS
INLAND. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID HOWEVER STAY FIRMLY
ON THE COLD EDGE OF GUIDANCE FAVORING THE MET NUMBERS WHICH YIELDS
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE
LOWER 40S ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A
CONFINED TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW
END LIKELY NE LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY
ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30% FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A
MIX THROUGH MID AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.


BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LIFTING THRU ENE PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNG...WHILE LO PRES WAS DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST.
THAT LO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO
TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE
SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FT EARLY THIS
MORNG...AND WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO
TNGT...DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA WED EVENG INTO THU
NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY AT NASSAWADOX...KIPTOPEKE...AND BISHOPS HEAD. HI
SURF ADVSRY CONTINUES THRU LATE MORNG FOR VA BEACH AND CURRITUCK
COASTLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
     100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091401
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
901 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~998 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF
THE SE VA COAST WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WNW THROUGH
CENTRAL VA. ANOTHER SFC LOW IS OVER LAKE HURON. ALOFT...LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER OHIO. THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS
MD/NRN VA AND PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS ONGOING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN SHORE WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY DRY CONDS
INLAND. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID HOWEVER STAY FIRMLY
ON THE COLD EDGE OF GUIDANCE FAVORING THE MET NUMBERS WHICH YIELDS
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE
LOWER 40S ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A
CONFINED TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW
END LIKELY NE LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY
ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30% FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A
MIX THROUGH MID AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.


BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LIFTING THRU ENE PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNG...WHILE LO PRES WAS DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST.
THAT LO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO
TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE
SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FT EARLY THIS
MORNG...AND WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO
TNGT...DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA WED EVENG INTO THU
NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORECAST UPDATED TO RAISE CSTL FLOOD WARNGS FOR THE ENTIRE BAY
SIDE OF THE LWR ERN SHORE TDA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY AT NASSAWADOX...KIPTOPEKE...AND BISHOPS HEAD. HI
SURF ADVSRY CONTINUES THRU LATE MORNG FOR VA BEACH AND CURRITUCK
COASTLINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
     100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 091009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
509 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~998 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF
THE SE VA COAST WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WNW THROUGH
CENTRAL VA. ANOTHER SFC LOW IS OVER LAKE HURON. ALOFT...LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER OHIO. THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS
MD/NRN VA AND PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS ONGOING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN SHORE WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY DRY CONDS
INLAND. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID HOWEVER STAY FIRMLY
ON THE COLD EDGE OF GUIDANCE FAVORING THE MET NUMBERS WHICH YIELDS
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE
LOWER 40S ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A
CONFINED TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW
END LIKELY NE LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY
ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30% FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A
MIX THROUGH MID AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.


BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CWA. STILL
ANTICIPATE A 3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
NECK/ERN SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1" AT
MOST (GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA). LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH. MAINLY DRY AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS WEST TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS IN...COULD
SEE A FEW BAY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE VA ERN SHORE
SO WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS THERE. COLDER BUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON THU
(PARTLY SUNNY ERN SHORE) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID- UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LIFTING THRU ENE PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNG...WHILE LO PRES WAS DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST.
THAT LO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO
TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE
SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FT EARLY THIS
MORNG...AND WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO
TNGT...DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA WED EVENG INTO THU
NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST
THRU 8 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).

WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN QUITE HIGH ACRS THE BAY AS ELEVATED SEAS
ARE PREVENTING WATER FROM EXITING THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. IN
MOST AREAS THE SURGE HAS RISEN TO 2 FT OR GREATER. THUS...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
CHES BAY (BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SHORE) AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE (SEE CFWAKQ FOR
DETAILS ON TIMES). THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE ATLC COAST AREAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ075>078-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
439 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~998 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF
THE SE VA COAST WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WNW THROUGH
CENTRAL VA. ANOTHER SFC LOW IS OVER LAKE HURON. ALOFT...LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER OHIO. THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS
MD/NRN VA AND PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS ONGOING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN SHORE WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY DRY CONDS
INLAND. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID HOWEVER STAY FIRMLY
ON THE COLD EDGE OF GUIDANCE FAVORING THE MET NUMBERS WHICH YIELDS
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE
LOWER 40S ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A
CONFINED TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW
END LIKELY NE LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY
ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30% FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A
MIX THROUGH MID AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.


BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRTICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY N OF THE CWA. STILL ANTICIPATE A
3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN NECK/ERN
SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1"
(GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE CWA).
LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LIFTING THRU ENE PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNG...WHILE LO PRES WAS DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE VA/NC CST.
THAT LO WILL MOVE QUICKLY AWAY TO THE NE TODAY INTO
TNGT...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 10
TO 20 KT OVR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...W WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT EXPECTED OVR THE
SRN CSTL ZNS TNGT. SEAS WERE STILL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FT EARLY THIS
MORNG...AND WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO
TNGT...DUE TO OFFSHR W WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA WED EVENG INTO THU
NGT...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND...AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM THIS MORNING...AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-11 FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU THIS MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD AND
CAMBRIDGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ084>086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ075>078.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~998 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF
THE SE VA COAST WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WNW THROUGH
CENTRAL VA. ANOTHER SFC LOW IS OVER LAKE HURON. ALOFT...LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER OHIO. THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS
MD/NRN VA AND PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS ONGOING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN SHORE WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY DRY CONDS
INLAND. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID HOWEVER STAY FIRMLY
ON THE COLD EDGE OF GUIDANCE FAVORING THE MET NUMBERS WHICH YIELDS
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE
LOWER 40S ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A
CONFINED TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW
END LIKELY NE LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY
ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30% FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A
MIX THROUGH MID AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.


BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRTICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY N OF THE CWA. STILL ANTICIPATE A
3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN NECK/ERN
SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1"
(GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE CWA).
LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD AND
CAMBRIDGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~998 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF
THE SE VA COAST WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WNW THROUGH
CENTRAL VA. ANOTHER SFC LOW IS OVER LAKE HURON. ALOFT...LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER OHIO. THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS
MD/NRN VA AND PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS ONGOING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN SHORE WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY DRY CONDS
INLAND. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID HOWEVER STAY FIRMLY
ON THE COLD EDGE OF GUIDANCE FAVORING THE MET NUMBERS WHICH YIELDS
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE
LOWER 40S ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A
CONFINED TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW
END LIKELY NE LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY
ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30% FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A
MIX THROUGH MID AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.


BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRTICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY N OF THE CWA. STILL ANTICIPATE A
3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN NECK/ERN
SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1"
(GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE CWA).
LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD AND
CAMBRIDGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~998 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF
THE SE VA COAST WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WNW THROUGH
CENTRAL VA. ANOTHER SFC LOW IS OVER LAKE HURON. ALOFT...LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER OHIO. THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY...BUT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW PER THE 00Z GFS/NAM ACRS
MD/NRN VA AND PUSH OFF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
RAIN IS ONGOING ACRS MAINLY THE ERN SHORE WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY DRY CONDS
INLAND. SKIES HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE WARMER/SLOWER TO WRAP
THE COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LOOKS TO BE WEST OR EVEN WSW TODAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH OF MOST OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST
AREAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID HOWEVER STAY FIRMLY
ON THE COLD EDGE OF GUIDANCE FAVORING THE MET NUMBERS WHICH YIELDS
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC...TO THE
LOWER 40S ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AS FOR POPS...WILL HAVE CHC A
CONFINED TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING...THEN RAISE POPS TO LOW
END LIKELY NE LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE UPPER ENERGY
ARRIVES...TAPERED TO 20-30% FARTHER SOUTH. STILL ONLY RAIN OR A
MIX THROUGH MID AFTN...TRENDING COLDER LATE.


BY THIS EVENING...COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AS CRTICAL
THICKNESSES DROP WELL BELOW 1300 M. OVERALL THOUGH...TRENDS ARE
WEAKER IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE...NOW PROGGED TO STAY N OF THE CWA. STILL ANTICIPATE A
3-6 HR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN NECK/ERN
SHORE...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1"
(GENERALLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR THE REST OF THE CWA).
LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD AND
CAMBRIDGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090632
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY AS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FALLING
DEWPOINTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. WITH
MINIMAL LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE THE SFC...AND ALL TEMPS (T/TD/TW) STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR ERN PIEDMONT UNTIL A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE)...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
MAIN PRECIP SWATH...FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT TO CAROLINE COUNTY TO
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (356 PM)...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS
PUSHING INTO FAR SW AREA OF FA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS
FORCING INCREASES FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG
0.10" OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32-35 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE TUE MORNING WITH PRIMARILY WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AT MD/VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK...AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX
WEST OF RICHMOND (LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR WRN FLUVANNA/LOUISA
COUNTIES). THERE WILL STILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING...
THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW
EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER
LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE.
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED...
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOR THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS
THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD AND
CAMBRIDGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/LKB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090632
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
132 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY AS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FALLING
DEWPOINTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. WITH
MINIMAL LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE THE SFC...AND ALL TEMPS (T/TD/TW) STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR ERN PIEDMONT UNTIL A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE)...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
MAIN PRECIP SWATH...FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT TO CAROLINE COUNTY TO
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (356 PM)...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS
PUSHING INTO FAR SW AREA OF FA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS
FORCING INCREASES FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG
0.10" OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32-35 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE TUE MORNING WITH PRIMARILY WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AT MD/VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK...AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX
WEST OF RICHMOND (LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR WRN FLUVANNA/LOUISA
COUNTIES). THERE WILL STILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING...
THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW
EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER
LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE.
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED...
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOR THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS
THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
SWING OFF THE CST THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. LO PRES WILL
FORM WELL OFF THE DELMARVA CST LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS
AFTN ALSO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNG HRS
WITH ISLTD IFR CIGS AT RIC/SBY/PHF IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
DRIER (AND EVENTUALLY COLDER) WNW SFC FLO WILL THEN FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTN THRU WED. EXPECT SCT TO BKN SC (VFR CIGS) ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPLY RIC/SBY/PHF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS (AND SOME LWR CIGS) THIS EVENG INTO
EARLY WED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WED NGT INTO FRI...AS
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD AND
CAMBRIDGE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/LKB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090309
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1009 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY AS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FALLING
DEWPOINTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. WITH
MINIMAL LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE THE SFC...AND ALL TEMPS (T/TD/TW) STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR ERN PIEDMONT UNTIL A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE)...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
MAIN PRECIP SWATH...FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT TO CAROLINE COUNTY TO
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (356 PM)...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS
PUSHING INTO FAR SW AREA OF FA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS
FORCING INCREASES FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG
0.10" OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32-35 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE TUE MORNING WITH PRIMARILY WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AT MD/VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK...AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX
WEST OF RICHMOND (LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR WRN FLUVANNA/LOUISA
COUNTIES). THERE WILL STILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING...
THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW
EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER
LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE.
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED...
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOR THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS
THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z.
INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID
LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...SBY
COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
LONGER.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/LKB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY AS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FALLING
DEWPOINTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. WITH
MINIMAL LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE THE SFC...AND ALL TEMPS (T/TD/TW) STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR ERN PIEDMONT UNTIL A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE)...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
MAIN PRECIP SWATH...FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT TO CAROLINE COUNTY TO
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (356 PM)...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS
PUSHING INTO FAR SW AREA OF FA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS
FORCING INCREASES FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG
0.10" OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32-35 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE TUE MORNING WITH PRIMARILY WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AT MD/VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK...AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX
WEST OF RICHMOND (LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR WRN FLUVANNA/LOUISA
COUNTIES). THERE WILL STILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING...
THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW
EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER
LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE.
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED...
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOR THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS
THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z.
INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID
LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...SBY
COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
LONGER.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/LKB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY AS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FALLING
DEWPOINTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. WITH
MINIMAL LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE THE SFC...AND ALL TEMPS (T/TD/TW) STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR ERN PIEDMONT UNTIL A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE)...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
MAIN PRECIP SWATH...FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT TO CAROLINE COUNTY TO
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (356 PM)...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS
PUSHING INTO FAR SW AREA OF FA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS
FORCING INCREASES FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG
0.10" OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32-35 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE TUE MORNING WITH PRIMARILY WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AT MD/VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK...AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX
WEST OF RICHMOND (LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR WRN FLUVANNA/LOUISA
COUNTIES). THERE WILL STILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING...
THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW
EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER
LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE.
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED...
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOR THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS
THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z.
INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID
LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...SBY
COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
LONGER.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/LKB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
754 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY AS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FALLING
DEWPOINTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. WITH
MINIMAL LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE THE SFC...AND ALL TEMPS (T/TD/TW) STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR ERN PIEDMONT UNTIL A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE)...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
MAIN PRECIP SWATH...FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT TO CAROLINE COUNTY TO
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (356 PM)...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS
PUSHING INTO FAR SW AREA OF FA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS
FORCING INCREASES FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG
0.10" OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32-35 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE TUE MORNING WITH PRIMARILY WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AT MD/VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK...AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX
WEST OF RICHMOND (LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR WRN FLUVANNA/LOUISA
COUNTIES). THERE WILL STILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING...
THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW
EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER
LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE.
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED...
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOR THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS
THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z.
INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID
LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...SBY
COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
LONGER.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 4 AM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/LKB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090030
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY AS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FALLING
DEWPOINTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. WITH
MINIMAL LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE THE SFC...AND ALL TEMPS (T/TD/TW) STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR ERN PIEDMONT UNTIL A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE)...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
MAIN PRECIP SWATH...FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT TO CAROLINE COUNTY TO
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (356 PM)...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS
PUSHING INTO FAR SW AREA OF FA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS
FORCING INCREASES FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG
0.10" OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32-35 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE TUE MORNING WITH PRIMARILY WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AT MD/VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK...AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX
WEST OF RICHMOND (LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR WRN FLUVANNA/LOUISA
COUNTIES). THERE WILL STILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING...
THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW
EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER
LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE.
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED...
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOR THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS
THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME AS
ONE...OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXITS NEWD AND A SECOND ONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE
COAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND
KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER.

OUTLOOKS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 10 PM THERE...ANY THIS MAY ALSO
NEED TO BE EXTENDED. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW
5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND
THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/LKB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090030
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY AS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FALLING
DEWPOINTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. WITH
MINIMAL LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE THE SFC...AND ALL TEMPS (T/TD/TW) STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR ERN PIEDMONT UNTIL A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE)...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
MAIN PRECIP SWATH...FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT TO CAROLINE COUNTY TO
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (356 PM)...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS
PUSHING INTO FAR SW AREA OF FA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS
FORCING INCREASES FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG
0.10" OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32-35 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE TUE MORNING WITH PRIMARILY WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AT MD/VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK...AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX
WEST OF RICHMOND (LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR WRN FLUVANNA/LOUISA
COUNTIES). THERE WILL STILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING...
THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW
EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER
LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE.
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED...
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOR THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS
THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME AS
ONE...OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXITS NEWD AND A SECOND ONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE
COAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND
KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER.

OUTLOOKS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 10 PM THERE...ANY THIS MAY ALSO
NEED TO BE EXTENDED. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW
5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND
THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/LKB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090030
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT AND TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY AS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLDER AIR WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FALLING
DEWPOINTS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. WITH
MINIMAL LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS STAYING ABOVE THE SFC...AND ALL TEMPS (T/TD/TW) STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT FOR ERN PIEDMONT UNTIL A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE)...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THIS
EVENING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
MAIN PRECIP SWATH...FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT TO CAROLINE COUNTY TO
THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (356 PM)...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS
PUSHING INTO FAR SW AREA OF FA...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS
FORCING INCREASES FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE-STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG
0.10" OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 32-35 INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE TUE MORNING WITH PRIMARILY WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AT MD/VA ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK...AND A RAIN/SLEET MIX
WEST OF RICHMOND (LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAR WRN FLUVANNA/LOUISA
COUNTIES). THERE WILL STILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 DEGREES. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING...
THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW
EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER
LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE.
LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENERALLY LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED...
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOR THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS
THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
A STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL PRESENT DUE TO THE COLD POOL
ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. KEPT
20 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE
MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
(-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF
THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO
MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME AS
ONE...OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXITS NEWD AND A SECOND ONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE
COAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND
KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER.

OUTLOOKS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 10 PM THERE...ANY THIS MAY ALSO
NEED TO BE EXTENDED. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW
5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND
THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN AND NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/LKB
NEAR TERM...BMD/JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 082324
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST
ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS PUSHING INTO THE AREAS SW OF
RICHMOND...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE
TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS FORCING INCREASES FROM THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED
SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.10" OR LESS EXCEPT ACROSS THE ERN
SHORE/NRN NECK WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
P-TYPE OVER MD EASTERN SHORE IS TRICKY AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUPPORT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SBY
WEST...HOWEVER AS EAST WINDS INCREASE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE OCEAN CHANGING MOST OF LOWER MD OVER TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED IN DORCHESTER CO.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND DEEP
MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL TO 1300 M ACROSS
CENTRAL VA OVERNIGHT...BUT THE TREND IS FOR LIMITED PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL VA. ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD LIMITED MAINLY NORTH OF RICHMOND AND NO
ACCUMULATION BEYOND SOME LIGHT ACCUM ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID 30S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
THE LONGEST ACROSS NERN SECTIONS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH LOWER POPS AFTER DAYBREAK. APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF
THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN
40-45 F. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAS TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR
IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-
LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS MAINLY
AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED
IT WILL BE FOR THE MD AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELP OFF
ON THE ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF
SOME...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS)
SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC
FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN
ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR
SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU-
SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME AS
ONE...OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXITS NEWD AND A SECOND ONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE
COAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND
KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER.

OUTLOOKS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-6 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH
SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE SCA THRU 10 PM THERE...ANY THIS MAY ALSO
NEED TO BE EXTENDED. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW
5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND
THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE
MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN HIGH (8-12FT).
HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE THRU TUESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE WEST SIDE OF LOWER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THIS MAY ALSO BE THE CASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER STATEMENT OR ADVISORY. FARTHER
NORTH...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE ON TUESAY...ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 082056
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST
ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS PUSHING INTO THE AREAS SW OF
RICHMOND...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE
TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS FORCING INCREASES FROM THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED
SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.10" OR LESS EXCEPT ACROSS THE ERN
SHORE/NRN NECK WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
P-TYPE OVER MD EASTERN SHORE IS TRICKY AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUPPORT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SBY
WEST...HOWEVER AS EAST WINDS INCREASE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE OCEAN CHANGING MOST OF LOWER MD OVER TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED IN DORCHESTER CO.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND DEEP
MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL TO 1300 M ACROSS
CENTRAL VA OVERNIGHT...BUT THE TREND IS FOR LIMITED PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL VA. ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD LIMITED MAINLY NORTH OF RICHMOND AND NO
ACCUMULATION BEYOND SOME LIGHT ACCUM ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID 30S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
THE LONGEST ACROSS NERN SECTIONS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH LOWER POPS AFTER DAYBREAK. APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF
THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN
40-45 F. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAS TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR
IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-
LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS MAINLY
AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED
IT WILL BE FOR THE MD AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELP OFF
ON THE ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF
SOME...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS)
SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC
FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN
ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR
SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU-
SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME AS
ONE...OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXITS NEWD AND A SECOND ONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE
COAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND
KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER.

OUTLOOKS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-5 FT WAVES
AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH SEAS
OFFSHORE...SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA THERE THRU 10 PM THERE. SCA`S FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU THIS EVENING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED...AND THRU TUES
MORNING FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST THRU THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH/NEAR MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE LOWER CHES BAY FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL ISSUE
THOSE HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (IF NECESSARY). IT`S POSSIBLE
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR TUE
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE ATL COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 082056
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST
ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS PUSHING INTO THE AREAS SW OF
RICHMOND...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE
TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS FORCING INCREASES FROM THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED
SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.10" OR LESS EXCEPT ACROSS THE ERN
SHORE/NRN NECK WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
P-TYPE OVER MD EASTERN SHORE IS TRICKY AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUPPORT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SBY
WEST...HOWEVER AS EAST WINDS INCREASE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE OCEAN CHANGING MOST OF LOWER MD OVER TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED IN DORCHESTER CO.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND DEEP
MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL TO 1300 M ACROSS
CENTRAL VA OVERNIGHT...BUT THE TREND IS FOR LIMITED PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL VA. ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD LIMITED MAINLY NORTH OF RICHMOND AND NO
ACCUMULATION BEYOND SOME LIGHT ACCUM ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS
EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID 30S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
THE LONGEST ACROSS NERN SECTIONS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH LOWER POPS AFTER DAYBREAK. APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF
THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN
40-45 F. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAS TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR
IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY BY 21Z. NOT A LONG-
LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS MAINLY
AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED
IT WILL BE FOR THE MD AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELP OFF
ON THE ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF
SOME...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS)
SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC
FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN
ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR
SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU-
SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME AS
ONE...OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXITS NEWD AND A SECOND ONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE
COAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND
KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER.

OUTLOOKS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-5 FT WAVES
AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH SEAS
OFFSHORE...SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA THERE THRU 10 PM THERE. SCA`S FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT
WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME
VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU THIS EVENING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED...AND THRU TUES
MORNING FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST THRU THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH/NEAR MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE LOWER CHES BAY FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL ISSUE
THOSE HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (IF NECESSARY). IT`S POSSIBLE
ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR TUE
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE ATL COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
110 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB)
PULLING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.STILL BREEZY ALONG THE COAST
BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

FOR TODAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AREA TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS
INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST OVER THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER SOME ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV FEATURE IS DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND
WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT
SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS
RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL
TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS A 3-6 HR
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL
AVG 0.10 TO 0.20" OR LESS EXCEPT ACRS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK
WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TO HAVE RAIN AS PTYPE
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE VALUES ARE
MARGINALLY COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PARTICULARLY
DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL
BELOW 1300 M W OF I-95...BUT THE TREND IS WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WHILE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NRN ZONES WEST OF CHES BAY...ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY. GENLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LULL IN PCPN TUE
MORNING /EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W
DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SOME PRTL SUN THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING
TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45 F. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN ACRS THE NE TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT A
LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS
MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADSY
FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU- SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME AS
ONE...OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXITS NEWD AND A SECOND ONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE
COAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND
KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER.

OUTLOOKS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STILL SEEING 4-5 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
EXTENDED SCA THERE THRU 4 PM. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST EARLY WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED NGT AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU THIS EVENING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED. HAVE
EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM VA BEACH SOUTH
ALONG OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK THRU THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS
WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALSO THE LOWER
BAY FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL ISSUE THOSE
HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (IF NECESSARY).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081810
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
110 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB)
PULLING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.STILL BREEZY ALONG THE COAST
BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

FOR TODAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AREA TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS
INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST OVER THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER SOME ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV FEATURE IS DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND
WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT
SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS
RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL
TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS A 3-6 HR
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL
AVG 0.10 TO 0.20" OR LESS EXCEPT ACRS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK
WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TO HAVE RAIN AS PTYPE
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE VALUES ARE
MARGINALLY COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PARTICULARLY
DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL
BELOW 1300 M W OF I-95...BUT THE TREND IS WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WHILE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NRN ZONES WEST OF CHES BAY...ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY. GENLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LULL IN PCPN TUE
MORNING /EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W
DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SOME PRTL SUN THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING
TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45 F. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN ACRS THE NE TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT A
LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS
MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADSY
FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU- SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME AS
ONE...OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXITS NEWD AND A SECOND ONE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE
COAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS
LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND
KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER.

OUTLOOKS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STILL SEEING 4-5 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
EXTENDED SCA THERE THRU 4 PM. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST EARLY WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED NGT AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU THIS EVENING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED. HAVE
EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM VA BEACH SOUTH
ALONG OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK THRU THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS
WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALSO THE LOWER
BAY FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL ISSUE THOSE
HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (IF NECESSARY).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
103 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB)
PULLING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.STILL BREEZY ALONG THE COAST
BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

FOR TODAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AREA TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS
INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST OVER THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER SOME ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV FEATURE IS DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND
WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT
SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS
RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL
TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS A 3-6 HR
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL
AVG 0.10 TO 0.20" OR LESS EXCEPT ACRS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK
WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TO HAVE RAIN AS PTYPE
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE VALUES ARE
MARGINALLY COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PARTICULARLY
DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL
BELOW 1300 M W OF I-95...BUT THE TREND IS WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WHILE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NRN ZONES WEST OF CHES BAY...ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY. GENLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LULL IN PCPN TUE
MORNING /EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W
DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SOME PRTL SUN THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING
TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45 F. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN ACRS THE NE TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT A
LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS
MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADSY
FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU- SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STILL SEEING 4-5 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
EXTENDED SCA THERE THRU 4 PM. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST EARLY WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED NGT AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU THIS EVENING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED. HAVE
EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM VA BEACH SOUTH
ALONG OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK THRU THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS
WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTHAMPTON VA
NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE TO OCEAN CITY MD FOR THIS EVENING`S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
THE LOWER CHES BAY FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATER
LEVELS MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081719
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1219 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB)
PULLING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.STILL BREEZY ALONG THE COAST
BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

FOR TODAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AREA TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS
INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST OVER THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER SOME ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV FEATURE IS DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND
WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT
SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS
RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL
TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS A 3-6 HR
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL
AVG 0.10 TO 0.20" OR LESS EXCEPT ACRS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK
WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TO HAVE RAIN AS PTYPE
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE VALUES ARE
MARGINALLY COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PARTICULARLY
DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL
BELOW 1300 M W OF I-95...BUT THE TREND IS WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WHILE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NRN ZONES WEST OF CHES BAY...ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY. GENLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LULL IN PCPN TUE
MORNING /EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W
DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SOME PRTL SUN THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING
TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45 F. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN ACRS THE NE TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT A
LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS
MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADSY
FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU- SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STILL SEEING 4-5 FT
WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
EXTENDED SCA THERE THRU 4 PM. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST EARLY WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED NGT AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST
THRU THIS EVENING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED. HAVE
EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM VA BEACH SOUTH
ALONG OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK THRU THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS
WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALSO THE LOWER
BAY FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL ISSUE THOSE
HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (IF NECESSARY).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081513
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1013 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB)
PULLING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.STILL BREEZY ALONG THE COAST
BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

FOR TODAY...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AREA TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE LOWER 50S ACRS
INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST OVER THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER SOME ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV FEATURE IS DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND
WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT
SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS
RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL
TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS A 3-6 HR
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL
AVG 0.10 TO 0.20" OR LESS EXCEPT ACRS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK
WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TO HAVE RAIN AS PTYPE
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE VALUES ARE
MARGINALLY COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PARTICULARLY
DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL
BELOW 1300 M W OF I-95...BUT THE TREND IS WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WHILE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NRN ZONES WEST OF CHES BAY...ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY. GENLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LULL IN PCPN TUE
MORNING /EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W
DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SOME PRTL SUN THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING
TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45 F. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN ACRS THE NE TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT A
LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS
MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADSY
FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU- SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WELL OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS NE INTO THE NRN ATLC DURING TODAY. GALE FORCE AND SCA
FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY ARND MIDDAY ACRS ALL THE WTRS...AS
THE LO QUICKLY MOVES AWAY TO THE NE. BUT...SCA`S FOR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST TUE NGT FOR THE CSTL WTRS...AS SEAS 9
TO 15 FT...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY THRU TUE NGT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WED NGT AND THU...AS
STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AND HAVE ADDED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY AND HIGH SURF FOR ATLC
SIDE OF THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING. SEAS TO 8-12FT NEARSHORE WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND
POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW
HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. FOR HAMPTON
ROADS AND AREAS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR
WATER LEVELS APPROACHING BUT GENLY STAYING JUST BELOW MINOR FOOD
THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAO
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081030
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB)
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST...WITH SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES
NOW BEING OBSERVED ACRS THE CWA AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER OFF TO
THE ENE. STILL BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE COAST BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE WIND ADSY TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S ACRS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...INTO THE LOWER 30S ACRS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND MID 30S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WELL INLAND...AND THIS CLEARING WILL REACH EAST TO THE COAST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS (ALTHOUGH STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH A 20% FOR LIGHT RAIN).

FOR TODAY...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE
LOWER 50S ACRS INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV FEATURE IS
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM
ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY
LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT
RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS A 3-6 HR
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL
AVG 0.10 TO 0.20" OR LESS EXCEPT ACRS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK
WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TO HAVE RAIN AS PTYPE
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE VALUES ARE
MARGINALLY COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PARTICULARLY
DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL
BELOW 1300 M W OF I-95...BUT THE TREND IS WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WHILE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NRN ZONES WEST OF CHES BAY...ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY. GENLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LULL IN PCPN TUE
MORNING /EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W
DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SOME PRTL SUN THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING
TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45 F. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN ACRS THE NE TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT A
LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS
MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADSY
FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU- SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 20S.


&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WELL OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS NE INTO THE NRN ATLC DURING TODAY. GALE FORCE AND SCA
FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY ARND MIDDAY ACRS ALL THE WTRS...AS
THE LO QUICKLY MOVES AWAY TO THE NE. BUT...SCA`S FOR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST TUE NGT FOR THE CSTL WTRS...AS SEAS 9
TO 15 FT...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY THRU TUE NGT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WED NGT AND THU...AS
STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AND HAVE ADDED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY AND HIGH SURF FOR ATLC
SIDE OF THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING. SEAS TO 8-12FT NEARSHORE WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND
POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW
HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. FOR HAMPTON
ROADS AND AREAS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR
WATER LEVELS APPROACHING BUT GENLY STAYING JUST BELOW MINOR FOOD
THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 081030
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB)
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST...WITH SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES
NOW BEING OBSERVED ACRS THE CWA AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER OFF TO
THE ENE. STILL BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE COAST BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE WIND ADSY TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S ACRS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...INTO THE LOWER 30S ACRS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND MID 30S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WELL INLAND...AND THIS CLEARING WILL REACH EAST TO THE COAST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS (ALTHOUGH STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH A 20% FOR LIGHT RAIN).

FOR TODAY...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE
LOWER 50S ACRS INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV FEATURE IS
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM
ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY
LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT
RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA.

WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS A 3-6 HR
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL
AVG 0.10 TO 0.20" OR LESS EXCEPT ACRS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK
WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM TO HAVE RAIN AS PTYPE
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE VALUES ARE
MARGINALLY COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PARTICULARLY
DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL
BELOW 1300 M W OF I-95...BUT THE TREND IS WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WHILE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NRN ZONES WEST OF CHES BAY...ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY. GENLY A CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACRS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LATEST SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LULL IN PCPN TUE
MORNING /EARLY AFTN ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W
DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS ALLOWS
FOR SOME PRTL SUN THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING
TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45 F. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN ACRS THE NE TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. NOT A
LONG-LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS
MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A WINTER WX ADSY
FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS
STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD
HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE
NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND
COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU- SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND...SO
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...LOWS MAINLY
IN THE TEENS (POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER WITH HIGHS SUNDAY STRUGGLING
TO GET OUT OF THE MID-UPPER 20S.


&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WELL OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS NE INTO THE NRN ATLC DURING TODAY. GALE FORCE AND SCA
FORCE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY ARND MIDDAY ACRS ALL THE WTRS...AS
THE LO QUICKLY MOVES AWAY TO THE NE. BUT...SCA`S FOR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST TUE NGT FOR THE CSTL WTRS...AS SEAS 9
TO 15 FT...WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY THRU TUE NGT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WED NGT AND THU...AS
STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AND HAVE ADDED A CSTL FLOOD ADSY AND HIGH SURF FOR ATLC
SIDE OF THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING. SEAS TO 8-12FT NEARSHORE WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND
POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW
HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. FOR HAMPTON
ROADS AND AREAS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR
WATER LEVELS APPROACHING BUT GENLY STAYING JUST BELOW MINOR FOOD
THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING POWERFUL COASTAL SFC LOW (SUB 980 MB)
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST...WITH SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES
NOW BEING OBSERVED ACRS THE CWA AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER OFF TO
THE ENE. STILL BREEZY/WINDY ALONG THE COAST BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE WIND ADSY TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S ACRS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE
DAYBREAK...INTO THE LOWER 30S ACRS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND MID 30S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WELL INLAND...AND THIS CLEARING WILL REACH EAST TO THE COAST
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HRS (ALTHOUGH STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE
ERN SHORE ALONG WITH A 20% FOR LIGHT RAIN).

FOR TODAY...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO HAVE
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACRS THE N AND AT THE COAST...TO THE
LOWER 50S ACRS INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PV LOBE IS
DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SE ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM
ACRS SRN VA THIS EVENING AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH SE VA/ERN NC THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PT SUNNY CONDS WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY
LATER THIS AFTN...WITH POPS RAMPING UP RATHER QUICKLY FROM W TO E
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. STILL TOO WARM FOR THIS TO BE ANYTHING BUT
RAIN ACRS THE AKQ CWA.

CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS WUD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA HERE WOULD BE
NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY  A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
LTST SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS
SRN HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS
TUE EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF
CLOUDS/SUN)... ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS
WELL ABOVE FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL
THICKNESSES SPRTS MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
LOWS THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AND WILL BE ADDING A CSTL FLOOD ADSY AND HIGH SURF
FRO ATLC SIDE OF THE ERN SHORE AS WELL FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE
THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8-12FT NEARSHORE WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION
AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDE THIS
MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098>100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080639
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG CSTL SFC LO PRES E OF ILM BEGINS TO TRACK ENE AND AWAY FM
THE CST OVRNGT. BACK EDGE OF PCPN (MNLY RA W/ OCNL IP) HAS REACHED
IN FARTHEREST W EXTENT ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND STARTING TO PULL TO
THE E (THOUGH SLOLY). XCPG CONTD PCPN NR ALL THE CST OVRNGT THOUGH
TREND WILL LWR BY LT AT NGT. OTRW...CONTD WINDY ALONG THE COAST.
SOME DCRG CLDNS INLAND...ESP ACRS THE PIEDMONT AFT MDNGT. LO TEMPS
FM THE U20S-L30S TO M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12FT
NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION
AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC
SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING HIGH
TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080639
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG CSTL SFC LO PRES E OF ILM BEGINS TO TRACK ENE AND AWAY FM
THE CST OVRNGT. BACK EDGE OF PCPN (MNLY RA W/ OCNL IP) HAS REACHED
IN FARTHEREST W EXTENT ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND STARTING TO PULL TO
THE E (THOUGH SLOLY). XCPG CONTD PCPN NR ALL THE CST OVRNGT THOUGH
TREND WILL LWR BY LT AT NGT. OTRW...CONTD WINDY ALONG THE COAST.
SOME DCRG CLDNS INLAND...ESP ACRS THE PIEDMONT AFT MDNGT. LO TEMPS
FM THE U20S-L30S TO M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12FT
NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION
AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC
SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING HIGH
TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080639
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRONG CSTL SFC LO PRES E OF ILM BEGINS TO TRACK ENE AND AWAY FM
THE CST OVRNGT. BACK EDGE OF PCPN (MNLY RA W/ OCNL IP) HAS REACHED
IN FARTHEREST W EXTENT ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND STARTING TO PULL TO
THE E (THOUGH SLOLY). XCPG CONTD PCPN NR ALL THE CST OVRNGT THOUGH
TREND WILL LWR BY LT AT NGT. OTRW...CONTD WINDY ALONG THE COAST.
SOME DCRG CLDNS INLAND...ESP ACRS THE PIEDMONT AFT MDNGT. LO TEMPS
FM THE U20S-L30S TO M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LO PRES OFF THE NC CST...WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE
NRN ATLC DURING TODAY TAKING PCPN WITH IT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNG...ESPLY AT
ORF...ECG...AND SOMETIMES SBY. THEN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF TODAY...AS FCST AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN EXITING LO PRES IN THE ATLC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FM THE W. THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU WED...A STRONG
UPR LEVEL LO WILL DROP ESE FM THE GRT LKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE REGION.
THESE WAVES COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TUE NGT THRU
WED. THE UPR LO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE AREA WED NGT
WITH HI PRES BUILDING IN THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12FT
NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION
AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC
SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING HIGH
TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-634-650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080257
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONG CSTL SFC LO PRES E OF ILM BEGINS TO TRACK ENE AND AWAY FM
THE CST OVRNGT. BACK EDGE OF PCPN (MNLY RA W/ OCNL IP) HAS REACHED
IN FARTHEREST W EXTENT ACRS SE VA/NE NC AND STARTING TO PULL TO
THE E (THOUGH SLOLY). XCPG CONTD PCPN NR ALL THE CST OVRNGT THOUGH
TREND WILL LWR BY LT AT NGT. OTRW...CONTD WINDY ALONG THE COAST.
SOME DCRG CLDNS INLAND...ESP ACRS THE PIEDMONT AFT MDNGT. LO TEMPS
FM THE U20S-L30S TO M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS NE NC/SE VA. EXPECT
N/NNE WIND GUSTS 30-40KT ALONG THE COAST. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
WILL TAKE PLACE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN/-RASN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KSBY OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH. AFTER 12Z...THE LOW PULLS
OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12FT
NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION
AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC
SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING HIGH
TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
802 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING CSTL LOW (994 MB) NOW EAST OF MYR (EVEN SOME CONVECTION
WRAPPED ARND ITS CENTER EARLIER) IS PROGGED TO TRACK A BIT MORE ENE
THAN TRUE NE TONITE WHICH KEEPS MOST OF ITS EFFECTS OFFSHORE. HIGH
RES DATA SHOWS THE PCPN ON BACK SIDE OF THIS OCEAN LOW CONTINUES TO
PIVOT TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY THIS EVE WITH PCPN
ENDG AFTR MIDNITE. DRY WEST OF THE BAY. PCPN PROGGED TO LINGER ALONG
THE DELMARVA THRU ABT 12Z MON. ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH
THIS RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR RESULTS IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AN HR
OR TWO ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS. CONT WINDY
ALONG THE COAST. SOME DCRG CLDNS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT XPCTD AFTR
MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-L30S XPCT M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS NE NC/SE VA. EXPECT
N/NNE WIND GUSTS 30-40KT ALONG THE COAST. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
WILL TAKE PLACE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN/-RASN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KSBY OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH. AFTER 12Z...THE LOW PULLS
OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12FT
NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION
AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC
SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING HIGH
TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
802 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING CSTL LOW (994 MB) NOW EAST OF MYR (EVEN SOME CONVECTION
WRAPPED ARND ITS CENTER EARLIER) IS PROGGED TO TRACK A BIT MORE ENE
THAN TRUE NE TONITE WHICH KEEPS MOST OF ITS EFFECTS OFFSHORE. HIGH
RES DATA SHOWS THE PCPN ON BACK SIDE OF THIS OCEAN LOW CONTINUES TO
PIVOT TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY THIS EVE WITH PCPN
ENDG AFTR MIDNITE. DRY WEST OF THE BAY. PCPN PROGGED TO LINGER ALONG
THE DELMARVA THRU ABT 12Z MON. ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH
THIS RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR RESULTS IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AN HR
OR TWO ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS. CONT WINDY
ALONG THE COAST. SOME DCRG CLDNS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT XPCTD AFTR
MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-L30S XPCT M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS NE NC/SE VA. EXPECT
N/NNE WIND GUSTS 30-40KT ALONG THE COAST. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
WILL TAKE PLACE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN/-RASN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KSBY OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH. AFTER 12Z...THE LOW PULLS
OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12FT
NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION
AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC
SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING HIGH
TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 080102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
802 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING CSTL LOW (994 MB) NOW EAST OF MYR (EVEN SOME CONVECTION
WRAPPED ARND ITS CENTER EARLIER) IS PROGGED TO TRACK A BIT MORE ENE
THAN TRUE NE TONITE WHICH KEEPS MOST OF ITS EFFECTS OFFSHORE. HIGH
RES DATA SHOWS THE PCPN ON BACK SIDE OF THIS OCEAN LOW CONTINUES TO
PIVOT TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY THIS EVE WITH PCPN
ENDG AFTR MIDNITE. DRY WEST OF THE BAY. PCPN PROGGED TO LINGER ALONG
THE DELMARVA THRU ABT 12Z MON. ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH
THIS RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR RESULTS IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AN HR
OR TWO ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS. CONT WINDY
ALONG THE COAST. SOME DCRG CLDNS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT XPCTD AFTR
MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-L30S XPCT M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS NE NC/SE VA. EXPECT
N/NNE WIND GUSTS 30-40KT ALONG THE COAST. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
WILL TAKE PLACE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN/-RASN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KSBY OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH. AFTER 12Z...THE LOW PULLS
OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO
SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-12FT
NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION
AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLANTIC
SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING HIGH
TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING CSTL LOW (994 MB) NOW EAST OF MYR (EVEN SOME CONVECTION
WRAPPED ARND ITS CENTER EARLIER) IS PROGGED TO TRACK A BIT MORE ENE
THAN TRUE NE TONITE WHICH KEEPS MOST OF ITS EFFECTS OFFSHORE. HIGH
RES DATA SHOWS THE PCPN ON BACK SIDE OF THIS OCEAN LOW CONTINUES TO
PIVOT TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY THIS EVE WITH PCPN
ENDG AFTR MIDNITE. DRY WEST OF THE BAY. PCPN PROGGED TO LINGER ALONG
THE DELMARVA THRU ABT 12Z MON. ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH
THIS RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR RESULTS IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AN HR
OR TWO ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS. CONT WINDY
ALONG THE COAST. SOME DCRG CLDNS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT XPCTD AFTR
MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-L30S XPCT M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN.
INITIALLY...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BUT EXPECT THEM TO LOWER
ACROSS ERN NC TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING PULLING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED
INTO ECG AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING THERE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT
ORF...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
AS THE LOW SHOULD PULL OFF THE COAST BEFORE ANY WORSE CONDITIONS
ARRIVE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 6Z - 12Z. AFTER
12Z...THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING
ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-10
FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES.
EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL
FLODDING MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE
ATLANTIC SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING
HIGH TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING CSTL LOW (994 MB) NOW EAST OF MYR (EVEN SOME CONVECTION
WRAPPED ARND ITS CENTER EARLIER) IS PROGGED TO TRACK A BIT MORE ENE
THAN TRUE NE TONITE WHICH KEEPS MOST OF ITS EFFECTS OFFSHORE. HIGH
RES DATA SHOWS THE PCPN ON BACK SIDE OF THIS OCEAN LOW CONTINUES TO
PIVOT TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY THIS EVE WITH PCPN
ENDG AFTR MIDNITE. DRY WEST OF THE BAY. PCPN PROGGED TO LINGER ALONG
THE DELMARVA THRU ABT 12Z MON. ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH
THIS RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR RESULTS IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AN HR
OR TWO ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS. CONT WINDY
ALONG THE COAST. SOME DCRG CLDNS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT XPCTD AFTR
MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-L30S XPCT M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN.
INITIALLY...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BUT EXPECT THEM TO LOWER
ACROSS ERN NC TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING PULLING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED
INTO ECG AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING THERE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT
ORF...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
AS THE LOW SHOULD PULL OFF THE COAST BEFORE ANY WORSE CONDITIONS
ARRIVE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 6Z - 12Z. AFTER
12Z...THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING
ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-10
FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES.
EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL
FLODDING MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE
ATLANTIC SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING
HIGH TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 072040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT INTENSIFIES WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING CSTL LOW (994 MB) NOW EAST OF MYR (EVEN SOME CONVECTION
WRAPPED ARND ITS CENTER EARLIER) IS PROGGED TO TRACK A BIT MORE ENE
THAN TRUE NE TONITE WHICH KEEPS MOST OF ITS EFFECTS OFFSHORE. HIGH
RES DATA SHOWS THE PCPN ON BACK SIDE OF THIS OCEAN LOW CONTINUES TO
PIVOT TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHES BAY THIS EVE WITH PCPN
ENDG AFTR MIDNITE. DRY WEST OF THE BAY. PCPN PROGGED TO LINGER ALONG
THE DELMARVA THRU ABT 12Z MON. ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH
THIS RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR RESULTS IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AN HR
OR TWO ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS. CONT WINDY
ALONG THE COAST. SOME DCRG CLDNS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT XPCTD AFTR
MIDNITE. LOWS U20S-L30S XPCT M-U30S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APPEARS RGN WILL SQUEEZE OUT A NEAR NRML FEB DAY MON AHEAD OF WHAT
THE GUID SHOWS AS AN XTNDD PRD WITH BLO NRML TMPS. FA WILL BE BTWN
THE DEPARTING OCEAN LOW AND APPRCHG UPL LVL LOW FROM THE NW. 12Z
DATA CONTS TO SLOW THE PCPN WITH THIS FTR...NOT CROSSING THE MTS
UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. XPCT A PT SUNNY DAY WITH ANY SHWRS CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR LATE. HIGHS M40S-L50S.

NXT S/W PROGGED TO CROSS THE FA MON NITE. THE TRACK OF THE FTR WILL
BE CRITICAL AS HISTORY AS PROVEN THAT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURS SOUTH OF THE TRACK WITH A RTHR TIGHT PCPN GRDNT TO ITS NORTH.
THIS FTR WILL ALSO HAVE A TRAILING TROF / BNDRY WHICH HAS ME A BIT
CONCERNED. PCPN STARTS OFF AS RAIN SHWRS MON EVENING...BUT GIVEN HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTM IS...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BURST OF SNOW SHWRS AFTR
MIDNIGHT AS THE FTR TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NRN CNTYS RGN. ACCUMLS
WUD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS TMPS DROP TO NR FREEZING. TARGET AREA
HERE WOULD BE NORTHERN HALF OF FA WEST OF THE CHES BAY (ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VA RT 360 LINE). A RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH LOWS IN THE M30S.

FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHWRS LINGERING THE
LONGEST ACROSS NERN SCTNS WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. LTST
SUITE OF MODELS NOW SHOW ANTHR LULL IN PCPN TUE AFTRN ACROSS SRN
HALF OF FA BEFORE THE NEXT S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE NERN CNTYS TUE
EVE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PRTL AFTRN SUN (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...
ALLOWING TMPS TO RISE TO BTWN 40-45. DESPITE TMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING...COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH CRITICAL THICKNESSES SPRTS
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS XCPT FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST.

TUE NITE WILL FEATURE THE NEXT S/W TRACKING ACROSS NRN VA WITH SCT
SNOW SHWRS. THIS CUD ALSO PUT DOWN A SMALL ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN
NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR SUNSET. OTW...PT CLDY. LOWS M20S-L30S.

UPR LVL TROF PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE CONUS WED. ANTHR WEAK S/W DIVES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THIS ONE TRACKS NORTH OF
THE FA. KEPT ISLTD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING
HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S-L40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT ANY PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGHS THU-SUN MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS
THRU THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN.
INITIALLY...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BUT EXPECT THEM TO LOWER
ACROSS ERN NC TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING PULLING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED
INTO ECG AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING THERE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT
ORF...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
AS THE LOW SHOULD PULL OFF THE COAST BEFORE ANY WORSE CONDITIONS
ARRIVE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 6Z - 12Z. AFTER
12Z...THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING
ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY (FOR WINDS UP TO 40-
45 KT). SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CHES BAY AND
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 8-14 FT
(HIGHEST S) BY TONIGHT. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL REACH 8-10 FT FROM VA
BEACH SOUTH...SO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WAVES WILL REACH 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING
WITH GALES/SCA`S COMING TO AND END. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY...SO WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE GALES WITH
SCA`S FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WED/THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA
BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(40-45 KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-10
FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH
EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES.
EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH
TIDES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. (MODERATE COASTAL
FLODDING MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH MONDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE
ATLANTIC SIDE...MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORN DURING
HIGH TIDE...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUES. BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS
MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JDM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071839
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PCPN BEGINNING TO PIVOT TOWARD THE COAST AT NOON WITH SOME R- NOW
REPORTED AT ECG. STILL NO PCPN NORTH OF RZZ-ASJ-ECG LINE DUE TO
THE DRY AIR OVRHD. HIGH RES DATA CONTG TO SHOW A TIGHT PCPN GRDNT
AS THE AFTRN WEARS ON RANGING FROM CAT POPS ALONG CNTYS THAT BRDR
THE ALBEMARLE SND TO LOW CHC AT ORF BY 22Z. OTW...CLDY AND COOL.
LWR TMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CRNT TMPS...MORE TOWARD THE LAV
NMBRS.

PVS DCSN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE
PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN.
STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT
LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH
BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF
DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE
PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES
SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG
THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH
GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-
MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW
WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW.

PVS DSCN:
FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN.
INITIALLY...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BUT EXPECT THEM TO LOWER
ACROSS ERN NC TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING PULLING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED
INTO ECG AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING THERE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT
ORF...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
AS THE LOW SHOULD PULL OFF THE COAST BEFORE ANY WORSE CONDITIONS
ARRIVE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 6Z - 12Z. AFTER
12Z...THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING
ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE AS OF 130 PM...EXTENDING GALE WARNING NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL
COASTAL WATERS TO THE DELAWARE BORDER. LATEST BLEND OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO WARRANT A GALE ISSUANCE. ENDING TIME WILL BE 12Z TO
MATCH THE PRIOR GALES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER BACK TO
THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF THE SE AND
MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL
OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS LATE THIS
MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACRS THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071839
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PCPN BEGINNING TO PIVOT TOWARD THE COAST AT NOON WITH SOME R- NOW
REPORTED AT ECG. STILL NO PCPN NORTH OF RZZ-ASJ-ECG LINE DUE TO
THE DRY AIR OVRHD. HIGH RES DATA CONTG TO SHOW A TIGHT PCPN GRDNT
AS THE AFTRN WEARS ON RANGING FROM CAT POPS ALONG CNTYS THAT BRDR
THE ALBEMARLE SND TO LOW CHC AT ORF BY 22Z. OTW...CLDY AND COOL.
LWR TMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CRNT TMPS...MORE TOWARD THE LAV
NMBRS.

PVS DCSN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE
PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN.
STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT
LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH
BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF
DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE
PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES
SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG
THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH
GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-
MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW
WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW.

PVS DSCN:
FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN.
INITIALLY...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BUT EXPECT THEM TO LOWER
ACROSS ERN NC TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING PULLING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED
INTO ECG AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING THERE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT
ORF...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
AS THE LOW SHOULD PULL OFF THE COAST BEFORE ANY WORSE CONDITIONS
ARRIVE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 6Z - 12Z. AFTER
12Z...THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING
ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE AS OF 130 PM...EXTENDING GALE WARNING NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL
COASTAL WATERS TO THE DELAWARE BORDER. LATEST BLEND OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO WARRANT A GALE ISSUANCE. ENDING TIME WILL BE 12Z TO
MATCH THE PRIOR GALES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER BACK TO
THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF THE SE AND
MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL
OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS LATE THIS
MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACRS THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071839
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PCPN BEGINNING TO PIVOT TOWARD THE COAST AT NOON WITH SOME R- NOW
REPORTED AT ECG. STILL NO PCPN NORTH OF RZZ-ASJ-ECG LINE DUE TO
THE DRY AIR OVRHD. HIGH RES DATA CONTG TO SHOW A TIGHT PCPN GRDNT
AS THE AFTRN WEARS ON RANGING FROM CAT POPS ALONG CNTYS THAT BRDR
THE ALBEMARLE SND TO LOW CHC AT ORF BY 22Z. OTW...CLDY AND COOL.
LWR TMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CRNT TMPS...MORE TOWARD THE LAV
NMBRS.

PVS DCSN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE
PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN.
STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT
LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH
BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF
DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE
PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES
SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG
THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH
GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-
MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW
WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW.

PVS DSCN:
FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN.
INITIALLY...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BUT EXPECT THEM TO LOWER
ACROSS ERN NC TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING PULLING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED
INTO ECG AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING THERE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT
ORF...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
AS THE LOW SHOULD PULL OFF THE COAST BEFORE ANY WORSE CONDITIONS
ARRIVE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 6Z - 12Z. AFTER
12Z...THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING
ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE AS OF 130 PM...EXTENDING GALE WARNING NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL
COASTAL WATERS TO THE DELAWARE BORDER. LATEST BLEND OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT TO WARRANT A GALE ISSUANCE. ENDING TIME WILL BE 12Z TO
MATCH THE PRIOR GALES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER BACK TO
THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF THE SE AND
MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL
OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS LATE THIS
MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACRS THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
113 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PCPN BEGINNING TO PIVOT TOWARD THE COAST AT NOON WITH SOME R- NOW
REPORTED AT ECG. STILL NO PCPN NORTH OF RZZ-ASJ-ECG LINE DUE TO
THE DRY AIR OVRHD. HIGH RES DATA CONTG TO SHOW A TIGHT PCPN GRDNT
AS THE AFTRN WEARS ON RANGING FROM CAT POPS ALONG CNTYS THAT BRDR
THE ALBEMARLE SND TO LOW CHC AT ORF BY 22Z. OTW...CLDY AND COOL.
LWR TMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CRNT TMPS...MORE TOWARD THE LAV
NMBRS.

PVS DCSN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE
PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN.
STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT
LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH
BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF
DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE
PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES
SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG
THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH
GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-
MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW
WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW.

PVS DSCN:
FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN.
INITIALLY...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BUT EXPECT THEM TO LOWER
ACROSS ERN NC TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING PULLING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 03Z. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED
INTO ECG AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING THERE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT FARTHER NORTH AT
ORF...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
AS THE LOW SHOULD PULL OFF THE COAST BEFORE ANY WORSE CONDITIONS
ARRIVE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH JUST
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH 6Z - 12Z. AFTER
12Z...THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING
ARRIVES SO EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN US. THIS COULD
PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS
NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS
LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1225 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PCPN BEGINNING TO PIVOT TOWARD THE COAST AT NOON WITH SOME R- NOW
REPORTED AT ECG. STILL NO PCPN NORTH OF RZZ-ASJ-ECG LINE DUE TO
THE DRY AIR OVRHD. HIGH RES DATA CONTG TO SHOW A TIGHT PCPN GRDNT
AS THE AFTRN WEARS ON RANGING FROM CAT POPS ALONG CNTYS THAT BRDR
THE ALBEMARLE SND TO LOW CHC AT ORF BY 22Z. OTW...CLDY AND COOL.
LWR TMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CRNT TMPS...MORE TOWARD THE LAV
NMBRS.

PVS DCSN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE
PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN.
STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT
LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH
BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF
DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE
PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES
SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG
THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH
GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-
MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW
WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW.

PVS DSCN:
FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS
NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS
LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1225 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PCPN BEGINNING TO PIVOT TOWARD THE COAST AT NOON WITH SOME R- NOW
REPORTED AT ECG. STILL NO PCPN NORTH OF RZZ-ASJ-ECG LINE DUE TO
THE DRY AIR OVRHD. HIGH RES DATA CONTG TO SHOW A TIGHT PCPN GRDNT
AS THE AFTRN WEARS ON RANGING FROM CAT POPS ALONG CNTYS THAT BRDR
THE ALBEMARLE SND TO LOW CHC AT ORF BY 22Z. OTW...CLDY AND COOL.
LWR TMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CRNT TMPS...MORE TOWARD THE LAV
NMBRS.

PVS DCSN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE
PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN.
STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT
LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH
BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF
DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE
PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES
SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG
THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH
GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-
MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW
WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW.

PVS DSCN:
FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS
NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS
LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1225 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PCPN BEGINNING TO PIVOT TOWARD THE COAST AT NOON WITH SOME R- NOW
REPORTED AT ECG. STILL NO PCPN NORTH OF RZZ-ASJ-ECG LINE DUE TO
THE DRY AIR OVRHD. HIGH RES DATA CONTG TO SHOW A TIGHT PCPN GRDNT
AS THE AFTRN WEARS ON RANGING FROM CAT POPS ALONG CNTYS THAT BRDR
THE ALBEMARLE SND TO LOW CHC AT ORF BY 22Z. OTW...CLDY AND COOL.
LWR TMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CRNT TMPS...MORE TOWARD THE LAV
NMBRS.

PVS DCSN:
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE
PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN.
STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT
LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH
BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF
DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE
PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES
SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG
THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH
GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-
MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW
WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW.

PVS DSCN:
FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS
NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS
LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE
PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN.
STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT
LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH
BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF
DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE
PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES
SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG
THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH
GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-
MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW
WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW.

PVS DSCN:
FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS
NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS
LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071501
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO GRIDS BASED ON LTST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS. THE DRY AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AKQ FA WITH THE
PCPN NOT MAKING ANY FRTHR NORTH THAN A RZZ-ASJ-EDE LINE THIS MORN.
STILL NO PCPN RPTD AT ECG AS OF 10 AM. APPEARS THE AREA OF ISENT
LIFT BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NC IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH
BOTH THE LTST HRRR/RAP MODELS SHOWING PCPN ASSCTD WITH DEEPENING
LOW OFF THE SERN COAST WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL SECTIONS AND
STAYING DRY WEST OF THE CHES BAY. IN FACT...DATA SUGGESTS ORF
DOES NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PCPN UNTIL ARND 21Z OR SO. THUS...WENT
AHEAD AND CUT BACK POPS XPCT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CSTL AREAS WHERE
PCPN PROGGED TO SNEAK NE ACROSS CURRITUCK/VA BCH AREAS THIS AFTRN.
OTW...A MAINLY CLDY DAY AHEAD BUT DO XPCT SOME DIM SUN AT TIMES
SPCLLY WRN AND LWR MD ERN SHORE AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WND FCST AS WINDY CONDITIONS DVLP ALONG
THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH
GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-
MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW
WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE L-M40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW.

PVS DSCN:
FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS
NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS
LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071314
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
814 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC HIGH ~1024 MB SLOWLY LIFTING NE
OFF THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG THE NC
COAST AND EXTENDS NNE FROM DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST.
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND FAR SRN VA REMAIN DRY THIS
MORNING...BUT AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPING LIGHT PRECIP
ADVANCE INTO INTERIOR NE NC FIRST THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTING
MORE TO THE SE INTO FAR E VA/NE NC LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN AS
DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM
VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY. HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR- MID 40S
INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND 50 F ACRS THE N/NW WHERE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN IN THE EVENING ALONG THE SE
COASTAL AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR EARLY MON AM. ENOUGH
COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS
AROUND 12Z MON...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY ARRIVE TOO
QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY
WEST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC PRIOR TO
12Z/TUE. A DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A FVX-
RIC- XSA LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE
TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE U30S TO LOWER 40S.
SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY
PRECIP DEVELOPS AND COLUMN COOLING PROCESSES COMMENCE WITH DEW PTS
IN THE 20S. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE/FARTHER SOUTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WHILE THE GFS/NAM/GEM GENLY SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYING EITHER N OF THE CWA OR CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/3.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR N...TAPERED TO
ONLY AROUND 20% ACRS THE SOUTH. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER SNOW
ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRIER AIR PREVAILING ON WESTERLY WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS
NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS
LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
557 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC HIGH ~1024 MB SLOWLY LIFTING NE
OFF THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG THE NC
COAST AND EXTENDS NNE FROM DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST.
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND FAR SRN VA REMAIN DRY THIS
MORNING...BUT AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPING LIGHT PRECIP
ADVANCE INTO INTERIOR NE NC FIRST THIS MORNING..THEN SHIFTING MORE
TO THE SE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN AS DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN. EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND
25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY.
HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND
50 F ACRS THE N/NW WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE
BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON..BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY
ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER
30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC. A DUSTING/COATING
PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC- SBY LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS
IN THE U30 TO LOWER 40S. SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F
THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPS. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER
SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS
NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS
LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40 KT
GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9-10 FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND
PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE
EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS
ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A
FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8 PM SUNDAY
AND 7-8 AM MONDAY. FARTHER UP THE EASTERN SHORE ON THE ATLC
SIDE MAY NEED A CSTL FLOOD ADVSY MON MORNG DURING HIGH TIDE.
BUT...AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070941
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
441 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC HIGH ~1024 MB SLOWLY LIFTING NE
OFF THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG THE NC
COAST AND EXTENDS NNE FROM DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST.
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND FAR SRN VA REMAIN DRY THIS
MORNING...BUT AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPING LIGHT PRECIP
ADVANCE INTO INTERIOR NE NC FIRST THIS MORNING..THEN SHIFTING MORE
TO THE SE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN AS DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN. EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND
25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY.
HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND
50 F ACRS THE N/NW WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE
BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON..BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY
ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER
30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC. A DUSTING/COATING
PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC- SBY LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS
IN THE U30 TO LOWER 40S. SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F
THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPS. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER
SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TNGT. LO PRES INTENSIFIES OFF
THE SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...THEN QUICKLY HEADS
NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACRS THE SRN WTRS
LATE THIS MORNG THRU THIS EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND...THE CURRITUCK
SND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. SCA`S ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS FM LATER THIS MORNG OR EARLY THIS AFTN
INTO MON MORNG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE TWO NRN CSTL ZNS
THRU LATE MON NGT...AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. HAVE SEAS
INCREASING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST S) BY TNGT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 8+ FT FM VA BEACH SOUTH...SO HAVE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SRN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY LATE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MON MORNING...BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070906
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTENSIFIES WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING SFC HIGH ~1024 MB SLOWLY LIFTING NE
OFF THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS ALONG THE NC
COAST AND EXTENDS NNE FROM DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST.
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND FAR SRN VA REMAIN DRY THIS
MORNING...BUT AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPING LIGHT PRECIP
ADVANCE INTO INTERIOR NE NC FIRST THIS MORNING..THEN SHIFTING MORE
TO THE SE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN AS DEEPER MSTR MOVES IN. EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND
25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH LATER TODAY.
HIGHS TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 40S INTERIOR NE NC/FAR SE VA TO AROUND
50 F ACRS THE N/NW WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP
AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE
BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON..BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST MAY
ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY SO POPS FOR THIS WILL ONLY BE 20-30% AND NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER
30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN LOW MON MORNING/EARLY
AFTN. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18 TO
21Z...TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DRY/PARTLY
SUNNY MON MORN/EARLY AFTN..WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP FROM 18-21Z.
MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOSTLY AFTER
21Z. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGHS MON MID 40S N/NW...TO LOWER 50S S/SE.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG/W OF I-95 LATER MON NIGHT...AND FOR
ALL AREAS ON TUE. LOWS MON NIGHT 30-35 F. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS
PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC. A DUSTING/COATING
PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC- SBY LINE. WENT WITH MAINLY SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS
IN THE U30 TO LOWER 40S. SCENARIO WOULD BE WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 F
THEN FALLING AS SHOWERY PRECIP DEVELOPS. BEST CHC FOR A BIT HIGHER
SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE TUE EVENING ACRS MAINLY NE SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...WHERE UP TO 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY 1" OR LESS
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630-635>637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070620
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
120 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH WAS BECOMING SHARPER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FROM
HATTERAS SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW WAS STARTING TO DEEPEN OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH HAS HELPED TO
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SC AND THIS LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NC. MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO NC BUT THEN SLOW AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER SFC HIGH
OVER EASTERN VA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS DURING THE PRE AND POST
DAWN HOURS. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIP MOVES
NORTH, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF THE RAIN
IS PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN TEMPS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN DRY.
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL VA SO
WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES INLAND STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER20S INLAND AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MID 30S AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHTS FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST (ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST
HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM
RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP BACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIDEWATER AND
SOME AS FAR WEST AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RICHMOND. THAT SAID
THE NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE COAST. A
50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK (EITHER DIRECTION) WOULD MAKE
FOR A DIFFERENT SCENARIO.

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND
25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS TEMPS 45-50
COOLEST ALONG THE COASTAL AND WARMEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.

LTST DATA SUPPORTS ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL
WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMULATION).
OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS
SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

12Z DATA SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW MON MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS MON 45-50.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. LOWS MON
NIGHT 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A
DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC-SBY LINE. WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE M-U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAO
SHORT TERM...MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070620
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
120 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH WAS BECOMING SHARPER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FROM
HATTERAS SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW WAS STARTING TO DEEPEN OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH HAS HELPED TO
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SC AND THIS LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NC. MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO NC BUT THEN SLOW AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER SFC HIGH
OVER EASTERN VA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS DURING THE PRE AND POST
DAWN HOURS. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIP MOVES
NORTH, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF THE RAIN
IS PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN TEMPS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN DRY.
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL VA SO
WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES INLAND STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER20S INLAND AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MID 30S AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHTS FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST (ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST
HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM
RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP BACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIDEWATER AND
SOME AS FAR WEST AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RICHMOND. THAT SAID
THE NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE COAST. A
50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK (EITHER DIRECTION) WOULD MAKE
FOR A DIFFERENT SCENARIO.

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND
25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS TEMPS 45-50
COOLEST ALONG THE COASTAL AND WARMEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.

LTST DATA SUPPORTS ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL
WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMULATION).
OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS
SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

12Z DATA SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW MON MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS MON 45-50.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. LOWS MON
NIGHT 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A
DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC-SBY LINE. WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE M-U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAO
SHORT TERM...MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070620
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
120 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH WAS BECOMING SHARPER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FROM
HATTERAS SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW WAS STARTING TO DEEPEN OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH HAS HELPED TO
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SC AND THIS LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NC. MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO NC BUT THEN SLOW AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER SFC HIGH
OVER EASTERN VA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS DURING THE PRE AND POST
DAWN HOURS. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIP MOVES
NORTH, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF THE RAIN
IS PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN TEMPS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN DRY.
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL VA SO
WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES INLAND STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER20S INLAND AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MID 30S AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHTS FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST (ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST
HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM
RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP BACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIDEWATER AND
SOME AS FAR WEST AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RICHMOND. THAT SAID
THE NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE COAST. A
50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK (EITHER DIRECTION) WOULD MAKE
FOR A DIFFERENT SCENARIO.

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND
25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS TEMPS 45-50
COOLEST ALONG THE COASTAL AND WARMEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.

LTST DATA SUPPORTS ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL
WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMULATION).
OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS
SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

12Z DATA SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW MON MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS MON 45-50.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. LOWS MON
NIGHT 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A
DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC-SBY LINE. WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE M-U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TODAY INTO
MON MORNG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACRS THE AREA TODAY AND
TNGT...AS THE LO MOVES NE OFF THE CST. EXPECT LWR AC AND SC AT
ECG/ORF AND POSSIBLY PHF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR RAIN AT ECG AND ORF THIS AFTN INTO TNGT. ALSO...UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AT
ECG/ORF...AS THE DEEPENING LO CAUSES THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE AREA.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MON THRU EARLY WED...AS
AN UPR LO MOVES FM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID ATLC STATES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA ESPLY FOR
RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ630.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAO
SHORT TERM...MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070249
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
949 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH WAS BECOMING SHARPER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FROM
HATTERAS SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW WAS STARTING TO DEEPEN OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST. THE SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH HAS HELPED TO
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN SC AND THIS LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NC. MANY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTH INTO NC BUT THEN SLOW AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER SFC HIGH
OVER EASTERN VA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO
NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS DURING THE PRE AND POST
DAWN HOURS. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIP MOVES
NORTH, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE CLOUD SHIELD AHEAD OF THE RAIN
IS PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN TEMPS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA REMAIN DRY.
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL VA SO
WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES INLAND STILL EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER20S INLAND AND EASTERN SHORE WITH MID 30S AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHTS FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST (ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST
HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM
RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP BACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIDEWATER AND
SOME AS FAR WEST AS THE I95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RICHMOND. THAT SAID
THE NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE COAST. A
50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK (EITHER DIRECTION) WOULD MAKE
FOR A DIFFERENT SCENARIO.

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND
25-35 MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS TEMPS 45-50
COOLEST ALONG THE COASTAL AND WARMEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.

LTST DATA SUPPORTS ENOUGH COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL
WRAP AROUND MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER MD ERN
SHORE BEFORE PCPN ENDS AROUND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMULATION).
OTHERWISE...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS
SUN NIGHT UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S..EXCEPT M30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

12Z DATA SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW MON MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE MOISTURE TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PCPN TO BE
RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS MON 45-50.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM YET ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PROGGED TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION TUE. THIS TO
CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH
FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. LOWS MON
NIGHT 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH) ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A
DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX- RIC-SBY LINE. WENT
WITH MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ALOFT DESPITE HIGHS IN THE M-U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDS AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUNDAY WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING AT ORF/ECG SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY
DEVELOP BY 18Z AT ECG. 25-30KT WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED SUN AFTN/EVNG
AT ORF/ECG AS THE DEEPENING LOW CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC FOR PCPN AT SBY SUNDAY NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND MAY BRIEFLY GO
TO IFR SUNDAY EVENING AT ORF/ECG WHERE N/NE WINDS MAY GUST TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN DRY WILL REMAIN VFR.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED FOR THE AREA
ESPECIALLY FOR RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAO
SHORT TERM...MPR/JAO
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070133
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
833 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THIS EVE WHILE A CSTL TROF
ALREADY NOTED OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH THIS EVE WILL SPAWN LOW PRS OFF THE FLA COAST AFTR
MIDNITE. MODELS OFFERING UP DIFFERENT SOLNS ON HOW FAST AND FAR
NORTH ANY PCPN GETS BEFORE 12Z. SREF MUCH FASTER THAN NAM/GFS
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PCPN SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SND. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THE SHWR ACTIVITY DVLPNG ALONG THE NC COAST ATTM BUT
LEANED TOWARD A SLOWER BEGINNING TO THE PCPN ACROSS AKQ FA
ALTHOUGH SOME LGHT RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SND BY 12Z. PT
CLDY CNDTNS TO START OFF THE PRD WITH THICKENING CLDNS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS IN THE M20S-L30S XCPT M30S IVOF ALBEMARLE
SND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NITES FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
(NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE
PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE.
LTST SREF BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN BACK AS FAR AS THE I95 CORRIDOR
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE
COAST. A 50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK (EITHER DRCTN) WUD MAKE FOR A
DFRNT SCENARIO. GIVEN THE AMT OF DRY AIR SEEN ALOFT...LEANED TOWARD
A NAM/GFS SOLN OF THE PCPN BEING CONFINED TO THE CHES BAY ON EAST.
DRY OVER THE PIEDMONT. BCMG WINDY ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS
INCRG THRU OUT THE DAY. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35
MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS 45-50 (COOLEST
CSTL AREAS...WARMEST PIEDMONT WHERE SOME PRTL SUN PSBL).

LTST DATA SPRTS ENUF COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP ARND
MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN
ENDS ARND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMLS). OTW...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO CSTL
AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS SUN NITE U20S-L30S..XCPT M30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

12Z DATA SPRTS A SVRL HR PRD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW MON MORNING. NXT SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE NW MON AFTRN WITH ENUF
UPR LVL SPRT FOR THE MSTR TO CROSS THE MTS AFTR 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON
MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DRNG THE AFTRN. THERMAL PROFILES
WRM ENUF FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN SHWRS. HIGHS MON 45-50.

THE UPR LVL SYSTM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST MON
NITE. MEANWHILE...MSTR FROM YET ANTHR UPR LVL SYSTM PROGGED TO DIVE
SE ACROSS THE RGN TUE. THIS TO CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROF ACROSS
THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN
SHWRS MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS LATE MON NITE AND TUE
MORN. LOWS MON NITE 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH)
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A
DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX-RIC-SBY LINE. WENT WITH
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE
HIGHS IN THE M-U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDS AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUNDAY WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING AT ORF/ECG SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY
DEVELOP BY 18Z AT ECG. 25-30KT WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED SUN AFTN/EVNG
AT ORF/ECG AS THE DEEPENING LOW CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC FOR PCPN AT SBY SUNDAY NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND MAY BRIEFLY GO
TO IFR SUNDAY EVENING AT ORF/ECG WHERE N/NE WINDS MAY GUST TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN DRY WILL REMAIN VFR.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED FOR THE AREA
ESPECIALLY FOR RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070133
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
833 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THIS EVE WHILE A CSTL TROF
ALREADY NOTED OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH THIS EVE WILL SPAWN LOW PRS OFF THE FLA COAST AFTR
MIDNITE. MODELS OFFERING UP DIFFERENT SOLNS ON HOW FAST AND FAR
NORTH ANY PCPN GETS BEFORE 12Z. SREF MUCH FASTER THAN NAM/GFS
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PCPN SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SND. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THE SHWR ACTIVITY DVLPNG ALONG THE NC COAST ATTM BUT
LEANED TOWARD A SLOWER BEGINNING TO THE PCPN ACROSS AKQ FA
ALTHOUGH SOME LGHT RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SND BY 12Z. PT
CLDY CNDTNS TO START OFF THE PRD WITH THICKENING CLDNS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS IN THE M20S-L30S XCPT M30S IVOF ALBEMARLE
SND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NITES FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
(NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE
PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE.
LTST SREF BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN BACK AS FAR AS THE I95 CORRIDOR
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE
COAST. A 50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK (EITHER DRCTN) WUD MAKE FOR A
DFRNT SCENARIO. GIVEN THE AMT OF DRY AIR SEEN ALOFT...LEANED TOWARD
A NAM/GFS SOLN OF THE PCPN BEING CONFINED TO THE CHES BAY ON EAST.
DRY OVER THE PIEDMONT. BCMG WINDY ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS
INCRG THRU OUT THE DAY. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35
MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS 45-50 (COOLEST
CSTL AREAS...WARMEST PIEDMONT WHERE SOME PRTL SUN PSBL).

LTST DATA SPRTS ENUF COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP ARND
MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN
ENDS ARND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMLS). OTW...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO CSTL
AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS SUN NITE U20S-L30S..XCPT M30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

12Z DATA SPRTS A SVRL HR PRD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW MON MORNING. NXT SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE NW MON AFTRN WITH ENUF
UPR LVL SPRT FOR THE MSTR TO CROSS THE MTS AFTR 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON
MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DRNG THE AFTRN. THERMAL PROFILES
WRM ENUF FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN SHWRS. HIGHS MON 45-50.

THE UPR LVL SYSTM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST MON
NITE. MEANWHILE...MSTR FROM YET ANTHR UPR LVL SYSTM PROGGED TO DIVE
SE ACROSS THE RGN TUE. THIS TO CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROF ACROSS
THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN
SHWRS MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS LATE MON NITE AND TUE
MORN. LOWS MON NITE 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH)
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A
DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX-RIC-SBY LINE. WENT WITH
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE
HIGHS IN THE M-U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDS AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUNDAY WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING AT ORF/ECG SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY
DEVELOP BY 18Z AT ECG. 25-30KT WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED SUN AFTN/EVNG
AT ORF/ECG AS THE DEEPENING LOW CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC FOR PCPN AT SBY SUNDAY NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND MAY BRIEFLY GO
TO IFR SUNDAY EVENING AT ORF/ECG WHERE N/NE WINDS MAY GUST TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN DRY WILL REMAIN VFR.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED FOR THE AREA
ESPECIALLY FOR RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070133
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
833 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...THEN INTENSIFIES
WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THIS EVE WHILE A CSTL TROF
ALREADY NOTED OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. S/W TRACKING ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH THIS EVE WILL SPAWN LOW PRS OFF THE FLA COAST AFTR
MIDNITE. MODELS OFFERING UP DIFFERENT SOLNS ON HOW FAST AND FAR
NORTH ANY PCPN GETS BEFORE 12Z. SREF MUCH FASTER THAN NAM/GFS
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS PCPN SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SND. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THE SHWR ACTIVITY DVLPNG ALONG THE NC COAST ATTM BUT
LEANED TOWARD A SLOWER BEGINNING TO THE PCPN ACROSS AKQ FA
ALTHOUGH SOME LGHT RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SND BY 12Z. PT
CLDY CNDTNS TO START OFF THE PRD WITH THICKENING CLDNS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AFTR MIDNITE. LOWS IN THE M20S-L30S XCPT M30S IVOF ALBEMARLE
SND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY TO SUNDAY / SUNDAY NITES FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
(NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM WALL) AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE
PCPN SHIELD CAN GET AS THE STORM RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NE.
LTST SREF BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN BACK AS FAR AS THE I95 CORRIDOR
WHILE THE 12Z NAM/GFS KEEPS MEASURABLE PCPN (RAIN) CONFINED TO THE
COAST. A 50 MILE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK (EITHER DRCTN) WUD MAKE FOR A
DFRNT SCENARIO. GIVEN THE AMT OF DRY AIR SEEN ALOFT...LEANED TOWARD
A NAM/GFS SOLN OF THE PCPN BEING CONFINED TO THE CHES BAY ON EAST.
DRY OVER THE PIEDMONT. BCMG WINDY ALONG THE COAST WITH NE-N WINDS
INCRG THRU OUT THE DAY. SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH ALONG DELMARVA AND 25-35
MPH WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS FROM VA BEACH ON SOUTH. HIGHS 45-50 (COOLEST
CSTL AREAS...WARMEST PIEDMONT WHERE SOME PRTL SUN PSBL).

LTST DATA SPRTS ENUF COLD AIR WHEN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL WRAP ARND
MSTR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE BEFORE PCPN
ENDS ARND 12Z MON (NO ACCUMLS). OTW...KEPT RAIN CONFINED TO CSTL
AREAS. DRY WEST. LOWS SUN NITE U20S-L30S..XCPT M30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

12Z DATA SPRTS A SVRL HR PRD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN
LOW MON MORNING. NXT SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE NW MON AFTRN WITH ENUF
UPR LVL SPRT FOR THE MSTR TO CROSS THE MTS AFTR 18Z. THUS...KEPT MON
MORN DRY BUT MAINTAINED CHC POPS DRNG THE AFTRN. THERMAL PROFILES
WRM ENUF FOR THIS PCPN TO BE RAIN SHWRS. HIGHS MON 45-50.

THE UPR LVL SYSTM DEEPENS AS IT EXITS OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST MON
NITE. MEANWHILE...MSTR FROM YET ANTHR UPR LVL SYSTM PROGGED TO DIVE
SE ACROSS THE RGN TUE. THIS TO CARVE OUT A RATHER DEEP TROF ACROSS
THE ERN US. CAA ALONG WITH FALLING THICKNESSES RESULTS IN ANY RAIN
SHWRS MIXING WITH THEN CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS LATE MON NITE AND TUE
MORN. LOWS MON NITE 30-35. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMLS PSBL (<1 INCH)
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAINLY NW OF RIC WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE. A
DUSTING/COATING PSBL AS FAR SOUTH AS A FVX-RIC-SBY LINE. WENT WITH
MAINLY SNOW SHWRS IN THE GRIDS TUE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESPITE
HIGHS IN THE M-U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE CONUS THRU
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY SPARK ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FA TUES NIGHT AND WED. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WED-SAT MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDS AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUNDAY WHERE
IT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING AT ORF/ECG SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY
DEVELOP BY 18Z AT ECG. 25-30KT WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED SUN AFTN/EVNG
AT ORF/ECG AS THE DEEPENING LOW CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC FOR PCPN AT SBY SUNDAY NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR AND MAY BRIEFLY GO
TO IFR SUNDAY EVENING AT ORF/ECG WHERE N/NE WINDS MAY GUST TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN DRY WILL REMAIN VFR.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE INDICATED FOR THE AREA
ESPECIALLY FOR RIC/SBY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH WEATHER
BACK TO THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OFF THE NC
COAST BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY HEADS NE AND WELL OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THRU SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCH
HAD BEEN UP GRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY.
SINCE START TIME OF GALE CONDITIONS IS NOW INSIDE 24 HRS WENT AHEAD
AND BEGAN GALE WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT
(HIGHEST SOUTHERNMOST WATERS). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA AS WELL...AND THUS HAVE
RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE AREA EXCEPT THE
RIVERS (THE LOWER JAMES IS IN THE SCA). HAVE SEAS INCREASING TO 8-14
FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 8+ FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTH SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES. HAVE WAVES REACHING 5-6 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MONDAY
MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...AND SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE
FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY FOR SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. 30 KT NE/NNE WINDS(~40KT GUSTS) WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 9-10FT NEARSHORE. HIGH SEAS AND PROLONGED NE FLOW MAY CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY SOME DUNE EROSION. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE DURING HIGH
TIDES. EXPECT COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER
THE HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 7-8PM SUNDAY AND 7-8AM MONDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NCZ102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NCZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     VAZ098.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ631-632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...JDM/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




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