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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240723
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS MORNING. ALOFT, A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS... WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING EAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY, WITH LLVL S-SE FLOW
ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARM-UP TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. POPS REMAIN NEAR NIL UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN SHORE...MID TO UPPER 70S SE
COAST...AND LOW TO MID 80S INLAND UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.

BENIGN WX CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH ALIGNED JUST OFFSHORE.
LGT S FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS
TEMPERATURES WE`RE SEEING THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
U50S-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY
DESPITE INCRG PW / DP TEMPS. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS MONDAY L-M80S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH
DAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE
BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT
WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY BE FROM THE SE-S AT SPEEDS AOB 15KT. GUSTS MAY REACH
AROUND 20KT DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. OTHERWISE...THE
WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 1-2FT. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT (PERIODICALLY UP TO 4FT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS
MON NIGHT THROUGH THU).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240723
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
323 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS MORNING. ALOFT, A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS... WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING EAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY, WITH LLVL S-SE FLOW
ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARM-UP TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. POPS REMAIN NEAR NIL UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN SHORE...MID TO UPPER 70S SE
COAST...AND LOW TO MID 80S INLAND UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.

BENIGN WX CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH ALIGNED JUST OFFSHORE.
LGT S FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS
TEMPERATURES WE`RE SEEING THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
U50S-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY
DESPITE INCRG PW / DP TEMPS. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS MONDAY L-M80S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH
DAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE
BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT
WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY BE FROM THE SE-S AT SPEEDS AOB 15KT. GUSTS MAY REACH
AROUND 20KT DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK EACH DAY DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. OTHERWISE...THE
WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 1-2FT. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT (PERIODICALLY UP TO 4FT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS
MON NIGHT THROUGH THU).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240718
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS MORNING. ALOFT, A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS... WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING EAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY, WITH LLVL S-SE FLOW
ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARM-UP TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. POPS REMAIN NEAR NIL UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN SHORE...MID TO UPPER 70S SE
COAST...AND LOW TO MID 80S INLAND UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.

BENIGN WX CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH ALIGNED JUST OFFSHORE.
LGT S FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS
TEMPERATURES WE`RE SEEING THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
U50S-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY
DESPITE INCRG PW / DP TEMPS. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS MONDAY L-M80S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH
DAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING
PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON
AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240718
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES ~1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS MORNING. ALOFT, A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS... WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING EAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION.

SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FARTHER EAST TODAY, WITH LLVL S-SE FLOW
ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARM-UP TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. POPS REMAIN NEAR NIL UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN ON THE EASTERN SHORE...MID TO UPPER 70S SE
COAST...AND LOW TO MID 80S INLAND UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.

BENIGN WX CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH ALIGNED JUST OFFSHORE.
LGT S FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER COOL NIGHT, THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS
TEMPERATURES WE`RE SEEING THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE
U50S-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE
PERIOD...AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPR RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY
DESPITE INCRG PW / DP TEMPS. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS MONDAY L-M80S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH
DAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING
PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON
AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240617
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER
COASTAL AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE
PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH
INCRG H85 / DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS
WITH A WRMG TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF
THE BAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON
NITE M-U60S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING
PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON
AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240617
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER
COASTAL AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE
PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH
INCRG H85 / DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS
WITH A WRMG TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF
THE BAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON
NITE M-U60S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING
PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON
AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240617
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER
COASTAL AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE
PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH
INCRG H85 / DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS
WITH A WRMG TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF
THE BAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON
NITE M-U60S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING
PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON
AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240617
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER
COASTAL AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THRU THE
PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH
INCRG H85 / DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS
WITH A WRMG TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF
THE BAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON
NITE M-U60S. HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-S
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...WITH A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS DURING
PEAK HEATING/AFTN MIXING. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MON AFTN...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SLY AND INCREMENTALLY MORE BREEZY EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING MON
AND TUE. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WED AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM A REMNANT WRN TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
944 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT SE FLOW AOB 5 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 5-10 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A CLEAR COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WITH MID 50S OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10
KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10
KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 232322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10
KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S/SSE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KRIC/KSBY. VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO/WRS
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231930
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10
KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF VA...MD AND
NC THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND BAY WERE GENERALLY ENE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME LOCAL
DEVIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. INLAND AREAS
WINDS WERE GENETERALLY N TO NE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME SE AND
THEN S OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...MAS





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231930
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE ALLOWING LL FLOW TO BECOME SE AOB 10
KTS. XPCT A MSTLY CLR / COOL NIGHT. LOWS U40S-L50S...M50S CSTL
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU THE PERIOD.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE KEEPS AIRMASS DRY ALONG WITH INCRG H85
/ DP TMPS. XPCT MSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MSTLY CLR NIGHTS WITH A WRMG
TREND. HIGHS SUN M-U70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S W OF THE BAY. LOWS
SUN NIGHT U50S- M60S. HIGHS MON L-M80S. LOWS MON NITE M-U60S.
HIGHS TUE 85-90. COOLER AT THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS. HI
TEMPS WILL AVG FM THE MID 80S TO NR 90 WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 60S EACH DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THRU THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF LO PRES PASS
MAINLY NW OF THE LOCAL AREA. POPS WILL BE 20-30% EACH AFTN/EVENG FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC...WITH NO REASON TO GO HIGHER AT THIS
POINT DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND UPR-LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF VA...MD AND
NC THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND BAY WERE GENERALLY ENE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME LOCAL
DEVIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. INLAND AREAS
WINDS WERE GENETERALLY N TO NE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME SE AND
THEN S OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WITH
WINDS AVGG BLO 10 KT. THE HI WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVENG WITH WINDS BCMG SELY OVER ALL WTRS. FAIRLY STAGNANT WX PATTERN
THEN INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SFC HI REMAINING OFFSHORE
AND LO PRES STAYING WELL W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP...AVGG 10-15 KT. CONDS MAY COME CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAY LATE EACH AFTN/EVENG BUT FOR NOW
FORECASTING MAINLY ~15 KT THERE WITH 2-3 FT WAVES. EXPECT 2-3 FT
SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS...UP TO 4 FT AT TIMES FOR NRN WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...MAS




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
231 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRS MOVES ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. A PLEASANT DAY WITH
N-NE WINDS GRDLLY BECOME E-SE. MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS SCT-BKN CI
SPILLS EAST OF MTS. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S ALONG WITH COMFY HUMIDITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF VA...MD AND
NC THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES. WINDS CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND BAY WERE GENERALLY ENE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME LOCAL
DEVIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. INLAND AREAS
WINDS WERE GENETERALLY N TO NE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WINDS BECOME SE AND
THEN S OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD/JAO
MARINE...BMD/JAO





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1116 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRS MOVES ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. A PLEASANT DAY WITH
N-NE WINDS GRDLLY BECOME E-SE. MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS SCT-BKN CI
SPILLS EAST OF MTS. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S ALONG WITH COMFY HUMIDITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1116 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRS MOVES ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTRN. A PLEASANT DAY WITH
N-NE WINDS GRDLLY BECOME E-SE. MSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS SCT-BKN CI
SPILLS EAST OF MTS. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S ALONG WITH COMFY HUMIDITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231416
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231416
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231416
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR ALL OF CHES BAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND WILL STALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS ON THE BAY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES
AROUND 2 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
GRUADUALLY BECOME EAST.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUB- SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT
IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD/JAO





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT. WIND GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT IN SRN CHES BAY. WILL
HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 1000 AM BUT MAY NEED TO DROP
EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. THE NLY SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700
AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR
SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1- 2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO
2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT. WIND GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT IN SRN CHES BAY. WILL
HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 1000 AM BUT MAY NEED TO DROP
EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. THE NLY SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700
AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR
SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1- 2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO
2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...SCA FLAGS DROPPED FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT. WIND GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED BEHIND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AND ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT IN SRN CHES BAY. WILL
HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 1000 AM BUT MAY NEED TO DROP
EARLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. THE NLY SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700
AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR
SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1- 2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE
COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO
2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW
POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON
CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-
2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS
MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW
POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON
CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-
2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS
MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW
POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON
CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-
2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS
MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. 1028+ MB SFC HI PRES WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY, PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE U60S LOWER EASTERN SHORE...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE UNDER A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER
MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT A COOL NIGHT. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE U40S TO LOW 50S INLAND TO MID 50S SE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SLY FLOW WITH THE SFC
HIGH ORIENTED OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S MON...AND THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT WILL
SIMILARLY WARM SLIGHTLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER-LIKE/ WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR NW).
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS
HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE NLY SURGE
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK TO 15-20KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOW TO INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED SCA FLAGS THROUGH 700 AM FOR CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT AND THROUGH 1000 AM FOR SRN CHES BAY BELOW NEW
POINT COMFORT. THE RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE. WAVES ON
CHES BAY BUILD TO 3-4FT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-
2FT BY THIS AFTN. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUILD TO 3-4 FT THIS
MORNING BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S-SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN
THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SUB-SCA ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS
MAY GUST TO NEAR 20KT IN THE BAY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED DIURNAL
SURGES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230536
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AS OF 23/0500Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SSEWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...CROSSING ALL TERMINALS. ANY GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO KORF...WHERE NORTH
WINDS OFF CHES BAY WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK (OR BTWN
23/0900-1100Z). OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
BY THIS AFTN AND REMAINS INVOF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230213
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1013 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD OVER NRN VA.
THIS FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. CALM WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOME NLY 5-10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...SLOWING THE TEMP
DESCENT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S (~-1 STD DEV).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
711 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE REGION WILL CROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...REACHING KSBY FIRST AND KECG LAST. ANY
GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
KORF...AND HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 6KFT TO 9KFT RANGE...AND
NO WORSE THAN BKN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS MOST IF NOT
ALL THE TIME DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/WRS
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222023
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
423 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE/MID ATLC STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
THE GFS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BREAKING DOWN/WEAKENING
THE RIDGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK (THOUGH NOT TO THE EXTENT IT HAD
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS). MODELS ALSO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
RESPECT TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THE ECMWF REMAINING WARMER BY
ABOUT 2-3 C THAN THE GFS. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO WARM
/SUMMER- LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN...LIMITED TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
LATE AFTN OR EVENING TSTMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS ALTOGETHER FOR MON
NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WED...THEN WILL HAVE JUST 20% POP OVER JUST
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU/FRI (UP TO 30% FAR
NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS
(GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID 80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS
PATTERN). CONDITIONS WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE
COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS DIMINISHING ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN...CURRENT CONDS ARE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE NRN MID ATLC REGION...AND WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO YIELD LOW END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
11-14Z/FRI MORNING. HAVE RAISED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA HEADLINES FOR
THE BAY...BEGINNING AT 05Z/FRI...AND LASTING THROUGH 11Z N OF NEW
PT COMFORT...AND THROUGH 14Z SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT (05Z MAY BE A
TAD EARLY FOR THESE LOWER BAY ZONES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC ATTM). DID NOT RAISE ANY HEADLINES FOR OTHER ZONES AS IT
LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL EVEN FOR THE BAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT MAY AFFECT THE RIVERS. SEAS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
BUILD TO 4 FT IF THAT (AND THIS IS GOING WELL ABOVE WAVE WATCH
WHICH KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 2-3 FT).

PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW A DIURNAL
PATTERN...INCREASING A BIT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY
AM HRS LATE SUN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL GENLY REMAIN
SUB-SCA THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE BAY
DURING THIS LATE AFTN/EVENING/EARLY AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN
JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK LO PRES OVER SE CANADA WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRNT STRETCHING ACROSS THE THE PA/MD BORDER. THIS
FRNT WILL DROP THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG AND
OVERNIGHT...WITHOUT ANY PCPN AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AS THE COLUMN
REMAINS QUITE DRY (1000-500 MB RH LESS THAN 40%). SFC HI PRES WILL
THEN QUICKLY BLD IN BEHIND THE FRNT LATE TNGT. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY WX WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THRU THE PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL CENTER
DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLC BY MIDDAY SAT...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LIKE FRI...TEMPS WILL
ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LO TO MID 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS SUN AND MON AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HI
OFFSHORE AND AN UPR-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD. EXPECT HI TEMPS SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S...AND THE
MID TO UPR 80S MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. THIS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 5-10KT NW WIND (LOCALLY N AT
ORF/ECG) WILL SHIFT TO S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WIND WILL BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING
~10KT...WITH GUSTS OF 15-18KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED WITH SCT MID-CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND REMAINING ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CLEARING TREND WELL UNDERWAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MIX OUT ANY
LINGERING SCT STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CLEARING TREND WELL UNDERWAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MIX OUT ANY
LINGERING SCT STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY W/SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS REFLECTING A FEW MORE GUSTS TO ~25 KT
OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-MORNING, SO WILL ALLOW
EXISTING SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME LATER THIS MORNING...EXPIRING ONLY
LOWER BAY AND SOUND WITH 7AM ISSUANCE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N.

ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END SCA CONDITIONS WITH
(DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT, AND EXPECT FLAGS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ONCE CURRENT SCA IS DROPPED.
GRADIENT SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP
OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKS TO THE S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15
KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...LO PRES WAS CNTRD WELL OFF THE DE CST...WHILE
HI PRES WAS CNTRD OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THAT LO WILL TRACK NE
AWAY INTO THE NRN ATLC TODAY...WHILE HI PRES REMAINS WNW OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS
EVENG INTO TNGT. EXPECT JUST SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...ESPLY
ACRS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
OVR THE NW/NRN COUNTIES...TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. COOL HI PRES
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION ON SAT. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE...AS NNE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE LATE
IN THE DAY. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR
60S NEAR THE WATER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. THE SFC HI SHIFTS INTO THE ATLC ON
SUN...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLO OVR THE REGION. EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NNW WINDS ~20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS STEADILY THROUGH MIDDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
TONIGHT. WITH WINDS STILL MARGINAL ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
FAR N BAY ZONES, HAVE HELD SCA HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR NOW AND WILL
REASSESS WITH THE 7AM ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP PART OF
THE SCA FOR NORTHERN WATERS PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT ON AVERAGE BY AFTN, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY. ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH (DRY) SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT
SLACKENS QUICKLY SATURDAY AND EXPECT WINDS TO AGAIN DROP OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKS TO THE
S/SE FOR LATER SAT THROUGH MONDAY AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
206 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SE VA/NE NC
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...LEAVING
THE LOCAL AREA GENERALLY DRY. A SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WATER
VAPOR TRAVERSING NRN OH/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS GENERATED SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING TO GO
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WANE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LIFT DISSIPATES. ALSO HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU MIDNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. DRYING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THRU EARLY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER JAMES/RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK SCA EXPIRED AT 05Z...SCA FOR
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES IN EFFECT UNTIL 7A.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...LKB/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
206 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SE VA/NE NC
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...LEAVING
THE LOCAL AREA GENERALLY DRY. A SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WATER
VAPOR TRAVERSING NRN OH/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS GENERATED SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING TO GO
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WANE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LIFT DISSIPATES. ALSO HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU MIDNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. DRYING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THRU EARLY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER JAMES/RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK SCA EXPIRED AT 05Z...SCA FOR
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES IN EFFECT UNTIL 7A.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...LKB/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
206 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SE VA/NE NC
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...LEAVING
THE LOCAL AREA GENERALLY DRY. A SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WATER
VAPOR TRAVERSING NRN OH/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS GENERATED SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING TO GO
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WANE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LIFT DISSIPATES. ALSO HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU MIDNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. DRYING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THRU EARLY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR (LCL IFR) CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 4-6
HOURS W/ MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT TO MIX
OUT ANY LINGERING SCT STRATUS BY MID MORNING, WITH A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI AFTN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER JAMES/RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK SCA EXPIRED AT 05Z...SCA FOR
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES IN EFFECT UNTIL 7A.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...LKB/MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220237
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1037 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SE VA/NE NC
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...LEAVING
THE LOCAL AREA GENERALLY DRY. A SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WATER
VAPOR TRAVERSING NRN OH/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS GENERATED SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING TO GO
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WANE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LIFT DISSIPATES. ALSO HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU MIDNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. DRYING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THRU EARLY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES SYS HAS MOVD OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE ERN SHORE. STRATUS AND SOME FOG WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE A CLEARING TREND BEGINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE
N-NE AND LIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT.

ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR MOVG IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LIGHT WIND AND MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF
GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE AND TO WHAT
EXTENT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED UPPER JAMES/YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER TO SCA FOR THE EVENING
WITH CURRENT NNE SURGE OF WIND...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH A
BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE THE HEADLINE THROUGH 1 AM.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...LKB/MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220237
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1037 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SE VA/NE NC
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY. EARLIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE...LEAVING
THE LOCAL AREA GENERALLY DRY. A SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON GOES WATER
VAPOR TRAVERSING NRN OH/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION HAS GENERATED SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING TO GO
ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
WANE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LIFT DISSIPATES. ALSO HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THRU MIDNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SFC LOW ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. DRYING CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED THRU EARLY FRI MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES SYS HAS MOVD OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE ERN SHORE. STRATUS AND SOME FOG WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE A CLEARING TREND BEGINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE
N-NE AND LIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT.

ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR MOVG IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LIGHT WIND AND MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF
GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE AND TO WHAT
EXTENT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED UPPER JAMES/YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER TO SCA FOR THE EVENING
WITH CURRENT NNE SURGE OF WIND...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH A
BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE THE HEADLINE THROUGH 1 AM.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...LKB/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
839 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES SYS HAS MOVD OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE ERN SHORE. STRATUS AND SOME FOG WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE A CLEARING TREND BEGINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE
N-NE AND LIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT.

ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR MOVG IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LIGHT WIND AND MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF
GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE AND TO WHAT
EXTENT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED UPPER JAMES/YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER TO SCA FOR THE EVENING
WITH CURRENT NNE SURGE OF WIND...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH A
BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE THE HEADLINE THROUGH 1 AM.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...LKB/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
839 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES SYS HAS MOVD OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE ERN SHORE. STRATUS AND SOME FOG WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE A CLEARING TREND BEGINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE
N-NE AND LIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT.

ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR MOVG IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LIGHT WIND AND MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN MAY CREATE SOME AREAS OF
GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE AND TO WHAT
EXTENT. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED UPPER JAMES/YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER TO SCA FOR THE EVENING
WITH CURRENT NNE SURGE OF WIND...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH A
BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE THE HEADLINE THROUGH 1 AM.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/JEF
MARINE...LKB/MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212236
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED UPPER JAMES/YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER TO SCA FOR THE EVENING
WITH CURRENT NNE SURGE OF WIND...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH A
BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE THE HEADLINE THROUGH 1 AM.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212236
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED UPPER JAMES/YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER TO SCA FOR THE EVENING
WITH CURRENT NNE SURGE OF WIND...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH A
BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE THE HEADLINE THROUGH 1 AM.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212236
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED UPPER JAMES/YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER TO SCA FOR THE EVENING
WITH CURRENT NNE SURGE OF WIND...EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH A
BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE THE HEADLINE THROUGH 1 AM.

PREV DISC...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
427 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
427 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
427 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MAM




000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212027
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
427 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE GA/FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE.
LATEST GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK...BUT HAS GENLY
TRENDED TO THE STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO WARM/SUMMER-LIKE WX THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A
WEAK WARM FRONT STILL PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NRN MID ATLC REGION LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...BUT BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE
FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INTO MIDDAY MON...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FROM MON-TUE...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE
AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER JUST THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
TUE...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WED/THU (UP TO 30% FAR NW). INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH
TEMPS WARMING BACK TO 85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
TUE-THU...FAVORING ECMWF FOR HIGHS (GFS HIGHS ONLY IN MID-UPPER
80S WELL INLAND APPEARS TOO COOL IN THIS PATTERN). CONDITIONS
WILL GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY HAS WEAKENED ACRS SOME OF THE AREA
GIVEN APPROACH OF SFC LOW...BUT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AND SHIFT TO THE NNW AS SFC LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW A STRONG
SCA SURGE OF WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE
BAY/SOUND/LOWER JAMES...AND WILL GO INTO PLACE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE COAST. SCA CONDITIONS DROP OFF LATER FRI MORNING AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE
RESULTANT SFC FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211949
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SE NC AS OF 330 PM...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE NC JUST NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO MUCH THE AREA
TODAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25-1.00" (LOWEST NW). AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WILL SEE
TSTMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. A SVR TSTM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE UNTIL 8 PM...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO SKIRTING THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...A
CLOUDY/COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE UNTIL PCPN EXITS THE COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN PCPN COME TO AN END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT SHOULD BE OVER ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
4-5 PM. THE SFC LOW EXITS THE NC COAST AROUND 00Z THEN MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 40S NW TO THE UPR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF FRI...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA FRI EVE/NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON PRODUCING ISOLD SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NECK/ERN SHORE...SO HAVE REMOVED THEM FROM
THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACROSS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
CHECK. HIGHS 70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
NEAR THE WATER. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY FOR CONTINUED
DRY WX. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA ON
SUN...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE. THE
GFS TRIES TO FLATTEN/BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN LATE TUE INTO WED AS
IT IS WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE DESRT SW TO THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF IS GENLY PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON SUN...AS FLOW TURNS AROUND TO THE SSW
WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK WARM FRONT STILL
PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLC REGION
LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO
OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS RISE INTO THE LWR 80S INLAND AND
IN THE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FROM MON-WED...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR
NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER MAINLY THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON MON...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUE/WED. IF GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...POPS FOR WED WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. SUMMERLIKE WX
RETURNS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO
85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S TUE/WED. CONDITIONS WILL
GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPRCHS FROM THE SE.
WINDS ACROSS THE CHES BAY HAVE INCREASED WITH NMRS GUSTS TO 20 KTS
REPORTED ERLY THIS AFTRN. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CRNT CNDTNS.

PRVS DSCN:
LATEST CONDITIONS REFLECT E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AVERAGING 10-15KT. LATEST ANALYSIS FEATURES AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE INLAND OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND DEEP
SOUTH. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. APPEARS THAT SFC LOW
WILL PUSH NE ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN, PUSHING OFFSHORE AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO QUICKLY BACK TO THE NNW. A STRONG SCA SURGE OF WIND WL
ACCOMPANY THE WIND SHIFT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW GO INTO PLACE
AT NOON FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES, MAINLY TO ENCOMPASS E-SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTN BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE NNE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. FOR THE UPPER BAY, BEST SURGE OF WINDS
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. SCA HEADLINES ARE
ALSO NOW IN PLACE FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND (STARTING @ 1 PM) AND
COASTAL ZONES (STARTING TONIGHT).

CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT AS
IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
156 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY...THEN
LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM...SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NC. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL OBX TO THE LOW CENTER....WHILE
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING ERN NC BETWEEN
18Z-21Z...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE MID COAST THIS EVE AND TONIGHT.
S/W ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP DEEPEN/INTENSIFY
THE LOW SOMEWHAT...AS IT PASSES THRU SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN/EVE. A
COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE
LOW AND HAVE SEEN MUCH NEEDED RAIN FALLING OVER VA/MD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. ALONG/S OF THE SFC LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...S-SE WINDS WILL BRING A SURGE OF WARM/UNSTABLE AIR INTO
SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVE. THE RESULT WILL BE
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST FM NW TO SE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S/LWR
60S NW AND IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ACROSS NE NC. TEMPS ACROSS THE
N-NW HALF OF THE FA SHOULD ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY TODAY....WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN.
ACROSS THE SE (WHERE WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE)...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS THIS AFTN. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS AREAS ALONG/S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND
HOW MUCH SUN PEEKS THRU...THE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
A STRONGER STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER NE NC. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.75" WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SFC LO MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TNGT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS/POPS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S NW
TO THE UPR 50S SE. SFC HI PRES TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF
FRI...ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FM THE N LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA
FRI EVENG/NGT. THIS FRONT WILL JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACRS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HI PRES SETTLES OVER
THE MID-ATLC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH N WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN CHECK. HIGHS
70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA ON
SUN...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE. THE
GFS TRIES TO FLATTEN/BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN LATE TUE INTO WED AS
IT IS WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE DESRT SW TO THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF IS GENLY PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON SUN...AS FLOW TURNS AROUND TO THE SSW
WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK WARM FRONT STILL
PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLC REGION
LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO
OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS RISE INTO THE LWR 80S INLAND AND
IN THE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FROM MON-WED...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR
NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER MAINLY THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON MON...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUE/WED. IF GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...POPS FOR WED WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. SUMMERLIKE WX
RETURNS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO
85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S TUE/WED. CONDITIONS WILL
GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPRCHS FROM THE SE.
WINDS ACROSS THE CHES BAY HAVE INCREASED WITH NMRS GUSTS TO 20 KTS
REPORTED ERLY THIS AFTRN. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CRNT CNDTNS.

PRVS DSCN:
LATEST CONDITIONS REFLECT E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AVERAGING 10-15KT. LATEST ANALYSIS FEATURES AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE INLAND OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND DEEP
SOUTH. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. APPEARS THAT SFC LOW
WILL PUSH NE ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN, PUSHING OFFSHORE AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO QUICKLY BACK TO THE NNW. A STRONG SCA SURGE OF WIND WL
ACCOMPANY THE WIND SHIFT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW GO INTO PLACE
AT NOON FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES, MAINLY TO ENCOMPASS E-SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTN BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE NNE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. FOR THE UPPER BAY, BEST SURGE OF WINDS
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. SCA HEADLINES ARE
ALSO NOW IN PLACE FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND (STARTING @ 1 PM) AND
COASTAL ZONES (STARTING TONIGHT).

CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT AS
IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/MAM





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211756
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
156 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY...THEN
LIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM...SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NC. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL OBX TO THE LOW CENTER....WHILE
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING ERN NC BETWEEN
18Z-21Z...THEN MOVING NE OFF THE MID COAST THIS EVE AND TONIGHT.
S/W ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP DEEPEN/INTENSIFY
THE LOW SOMEWHAT...AS IT PASSES THRU SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN/EVE. A
COOL/WEDGE SCENARIO IS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE
LOW AND HAVE SEEN MUCH NEEDED RAIN FALLING OVER VA/MD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. ALONG/S OF THE SFC LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...S-SE WINDS WILL BRING A SURGE OF WARM/UNSTABLE AIR INTO
SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVE. THE RESULT WILL BE
QUITE A TEMP CONTRAST FM NW TO SE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S/LWR
60S NW AND IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ACROSS NE NC. TEMPS ACROSS THE
N-NW HALF OF THE FA SHOULD ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY TODAY....WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN.
ACROSS THE SE (WHERE WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE)...THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS THIS AFTN. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS AREAS ALONG/S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR WX. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND
HOW MUCH SUN PEEKS THRU...THE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
A STRONGER STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER NE NC. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.75" WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SFC LO MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TNGT...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUDS/POPS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S NW
TO THE UPR 50S SE. SFC HI PRES TO THE WNW PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF
FRI...ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE THRU THE 70S. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FM THE N LATE FRI...AND PASSING THRU THE AREA
FRI EVENG/NGT. THIS FRONT WILL JUST PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...ACRS
MAINLY THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S
NW TO THE MID TO UPR 50S SE. BY SAT...COOL HI PRES SETTLES OVER
THE MID-ATLC REGION. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH N WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY HELPING TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN CHECK. HIGHS
70-75 INLAND/PIEDMONT...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 60S NEAR THE WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAINING INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA ON
SUN...BUILDING BACK NORTH INTO THE MID ATLC STATES MON/TUE. THE
GFS TRIES TO FLATTEN/BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN LATE TUE INTO WED AS
IT IS WEAKER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE DESRT SW TO THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF IS GENLY PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON SUN...AS FLOW TURNS AROUND TO THE SSW
WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK WARM FRONT STILL
PROGGED TO LIFT N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLC REGION
LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY OFF TO
OUR N. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP ACRS THE FAR NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS RISE INTO THE LWR 80S INLAND AND
IN THE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FROM MON-WED...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
AND BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY OFF TO OUR
NORTH. WILL KEEP A LATE AFTN/EVENING 20% POP OVER MAINLY THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON MON...AND GENLY A 20% POP IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUE/WED. IF GFS ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...POPS FOR WED WILL NEED TO BE RAISED. SUMMERLIKE WX
RETURNS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO
85-90 F MON...AND UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S TUE/WED. CONDITIONS WILL
GENLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHWRS AHEAD OF APPRCHG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN
BOTH SPORATIC IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS AFTRN AT RIC/PHF WHILE
SBY/ORF/ECG REMAIN AT VFR. THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THRU ABT 21Z OR SO THEN TAPER OFF AS THE BEST MOISTURE
PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LCL
IFR/MVFR CNDTNS AT SBY/PHF/ORF THRU ABT 00Z.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN ATTM. THIS BNDRY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO A POSITION IVOF
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...BAND OF CONVECTION IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN VA/NRN NC THIS AFTRN. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO TSTRM GROUP AT ECG (20-22Z)
GIVEN THE LINES CURRENT SPEED.

LOW PRESSURE AND ASSCTD FRONTAL BNDRYS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING WITH ALL DATA SUPPORTING MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS PSBLTY OF IFR FOG IN SOME PLACES
LATE TONIGHT BU CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FCST
ATTM.

VFR CNDTNS FRI AND INTO THE WKEND AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPRCHS FROM THE SE.
WINDS ACROSS THE CHES BAY HAVE INCREASED WITH NMRS GUSTS TO 20 KTS
REPORTED ERLY THIS AFTRN. THUS...HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CRNT CNDTNS.

PRVS DSCN:
LATEST CONDITIONS REFLECT E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AVERAGING 10-15KT. LATEST ANALYSIS FEATURES AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE INLAND OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND DEEP
SOUTH. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. APPEARS THAT SFC LOW
WILL PUSH NE ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN, PUSHING OFFSHORE AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. QUICK
TIGHTENING OF SFC PG, A RESULT OF STRONG 6-HR PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 6-8 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT, SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO QUICKLY BACK TO THE NNW. A STRONG SCA SURGE OF WIND WL
ACCOMPANY THE WIND SHIFT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW GO INTO PLACE
AT NOON FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES, MAINLY TO ENCOMPASS E-SE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTN BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE NNE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. FOR THE UPPER BAY, BEST SURGE OF WINDS
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. SCA HEADLINES ARE
ALSO NOW IN PLACE FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND (STARTING @ 1 PM) AND
COASTAL ZONES (STARTING TONIGHT).

CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
QUICKLY SCOOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOL ~1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES BEING NEEDED EXISTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT AS
IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE RESULTANT SFC
FLOW BACKING TO THE S/SE, AVGG AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/MAM




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