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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270824
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
424 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered well off the Mid Atlantic
coast through today. Low pressure will slowly move northwest from
well east of the Florida coast toward the South Carolina coast
Friday night through Sunday, then drifts northward along the
coastal Carolinas Sunday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
During today into tngt, upr rdg will bld alng the Mid Atlc cst
with sfc hi pres remaining cntrd well off the Mid Atlc cst. The
bldng upr rdg will help to push/keep aftn/eveng shower or tstm
development alng and e of the mountains. So, will maintain just
slgt chc (20%) POPS for nw counties. Highs today will be in the
upr 80s/arnd 90 well inland/piedmont, while an increase in sse
flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along the cst with Highs
in the upr 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy tngt with Lows in the lwr to mid 60s.
For Sat, models remain in generally good agreement at keeping the
deeper moisture associated with the low well off the SE cst to our
south. They are even hinting at some large-scale subsidence, so
have maintained POPS at only 20% and confined to ne NC in the
aftn. Otherwise, partly or mostly sunny elsewhere with highs in
the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont areas, and in the upr 70s to
lwr 80s along the cst. Deeper moisture finally pushes nwrd into
the cwa later Sat night into Sun morning, with PWATS rising to
1.50 to 2.00" by Sun morning into the southern 1/2 of the CWA.
Exact track of sfc low into the SE coast will determine sensible
wx on Sun, but overall it looks like a warm and humid airmass
will be in place and should be conducive to at least scattered
showers and tstms. So, have raised POPS to 40-60% most areas.
When track become more certain, will potentially need to raise
POPS even more, although the setup does not look like a complete
washout. Rather, expecting periods of potentially moderate to
heavy rain alternating with a variably cloudy sky and rain-free
conditions. Highs on Sun generally in the upr 70s to lwr 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast for next week will be largely dependent on the
evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the
southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model
guidance continues to support the development of this low by this
weekend and NHC has high confidence of it developing into a tropical
or sub-tropical low within next 5 days...and then drifting NW into
South Carolina. Even if it does develop into a named storm, its
impacts would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the
exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible
elevated seas/increased rip current risk Mon-Wed. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Mon-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed/Thurs. Temperatures, tempered somewhat by clouds and
possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs
mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to
influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hi pres sfc-aloft off the mid atlc cst will dominate the wx
during the 06Z TAF pd. FEW-SCT cu once agn xpcd midday/aftn...w/
isold- sct tstms psbl W of the TAF sites. SSW wnds rmn aob 15 kt.
No significant precipitation is expected through Saturday. Chcs
for shras/tstms increase for Sun through Tue as lo pres tracks NW
to the SC cst.

&&

.MARINE...
Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns off the mid atlc cst into the wknd. A bit
of a surge in speeds (avgg 15 kt) fm S direction ongoing and will
cont into the early mrng hrs then wane tda. S-SW winds 5-15 kt
will continue through midday Sat before winds become more ESE at
similar speeds into Sunday. Seas will remain 2-3 ft thru
Sat...waves 1-2 ft. Contg to monitor psbl low pressure development
off the southeast coast this weekend...which may bring increased
seas/deteriorated conditions to the local waters Sun/Mon. For
now...SE winds avg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas may approach 5 ft...esp
off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* Norfolk had their first 90 degree day Thursday. The other
  climate sites are still waiting for their first day.

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Friday
morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270702
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
302 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered well off the North Carolina coast
through tonight, then pushes north to a position off the Mid
Atlantic coast on Friday. Low pressure will strengthen near the
Bahamas Friday night, and slowly move towards the South Carolina
coast Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The current analysis indicates high pressure at the surface and
aloft centered off well off the Carolina coast, with sfc low
pressure near the Bahamas. A mild evening is occurring with
temperatures in the 70s across the area. Norfolk reached 90 F for
the 1st time this year and RIC/SBY fell just short at 89 F (see
climate section for details). Scattered showers/tstms across the
mtns have dissipated this evening. A weak upper level shortwave
will track across the region tonight. However, this is just
expected to bring passing mid-clouds as there is minimal upper
support and minimal elevated instability. Warm and somewhat humid
with lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains. So,
will generally maintain ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri
in the mid to upr 80s/around 90 F well inland, an increase in sse
flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along the coast with
highs in the upr 70s to lwr-mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid
60s. For Sat, models remain in generally good agreement at keeping
the deeper moisture associated with the low well off the SE cst
to our south. They are even hinting at some large-scale subsidence
so have lowered POPS to only 20% confined to ne NC in the aftn/mostly
sunny elsewhere with highs in the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont
areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the cst. Deeper
moisture finally pushes NNW into the cwa later Sat night into Sun
morning, with PWATS rising to 1.50 to 2.00" by Sun morning into
southern 1/2 of the CWA. Exact track of sfc low into the SE coast
will determine sensible wx on Sunday, but overall looks like a
very warm and humid airmass will be in place and should be
conducive to at least scattered showers and tstms, so have raised
POPS to 40-50% most areas. When track become more certain will
potentially need to raise POPS more although the setup does not
look like the complete washout, rather expecting periods of
potentially moderate to heavy rain alternating with variably
cloudy skies and rain- free conds. Highs genly in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast for next week will be largely dependent on the
evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the
southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model
guidance continues to support the development of this low by this
weekend and NHC has high confidence of it developing into a tropical
or sub-tropical low within next 5 days...and then drifting NW into
South Carolina. Even if it does develop into a named storm, its
impacts would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the
exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible
elevated seas/increased rip current risk Mon-Wed. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Mon-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed/Thurs. Temperatures, tempered somewhat by clouds and
possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs
mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to
influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hi pres sfc-aloft off the mid atlc cst will dominate the wx
during the 06Z TAF pd. FEW-SCT cu once agn xpcd midday/aftn...w/
isold- sct tstms psbl W of the TAF sites. SSW wnds rmn aob 15 kt.
No significant precipitation is expected through Saturday. Chcs
for shras/tstms increase for Sun through Tue as lo pres tracks NW
to the SC cst.

&&

.MARINE...
Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns off the mid atlc cst into the wknd. A bit
of a surge in speeds (avgg 15 kt) fm S direction ongoing and will
cont into the early mrng hrs then wane tda. S-SW winds 5-15 kt
will continue through midday Sat before winds become more ESE at
similar speeds into Sunday. Seas will remain 2-3 ft thru
Sat...waves 1-2 ft. Contg to monitor psbl low pressure development
off the southeast coast this weekend...which may bring increased
seas/deteriorated conditions to the local waters Sun/Mon. For
now...SE winds avg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas may approach 5 ft...esp
off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* Norfolk had their first 90 degree day Thursday. The other
  climate sites are still waiting for their first day.

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Friday
morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB/JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270133
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
933 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered well off the North Carolina coast
through tonight, then pushes north to a position off the Mid
Atlantic coast on Friday. Low pressure will strengthen near the
Bahamas Friday night, and slowly move towards the South Carolina
coast Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The current analysis indicates high pressure at the surface and
aloft centered off well off the Carolina coast, with sfc low
pressure near the Bahamas. A mild evening is occurring with
temperatures in the 70s across the area. Norfolk reached 90 F for
the 1st time this year and RIC/SBY fell just short at 89 F (see
climate section for details). Scattered showers/tstms across the
mtns have dissipated this evening. A weak upper level shortwave
will track across the region tonight. However, this is just
expected to bring passing mid-clouds as there is minimal upper
support and minimal elevated instability. Warm and somewhat humid
with lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains. So,
will generally maintain ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri
in the mid to upr 80s/around 90 F well inland, an increase in sse
flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along the coast with
highs in the upr 70s to lwr-mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid
60s. For Sat, models remain in generally good agreement at keeping
the deeper moisture associated with the low well off the SE cst
to our south. They are even hinting at some large-scale subsidence
so have lowered POPS to only 20% confined to ne NC in the aftn/mostly
sunny elsewhere with highs in the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont
areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the cst. Deeper
moisture finally pushes NNW into the cwa later Sat night into Sun
morning, with PWATS rising to 1.50 to 2.00" by Sun morning into
southern 1/2 of the CWA. Exact track of sfc low into the SE coast
will determine sensible wx on Sunday, but overall looks like a
very warm and humid airmass will be in place and should be
conducive to at least scattered showers and tstms, so have raised
POPS to 40-50% most areas. When track become more certain will
potentially need to raise POPS more although the setup does not
look like the complete washout, rather expecting periods of
potentially moderate to heavy rain alternating with variably
cloudy skies and rain- free conds. Highs genly in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast for next week will be largely dependent on the
evolution of the low pressure system expected to develop off the
southeast U.S. coast within the next few days. 12Z suite of model
guidance continues to support the development of this low by this
weekend and NHC has high confidence of it developing into a tropical
or sub-tropical low within next 5 days...and then drifting NW into
South Carolina. Even if it does develop into a named storm, its
impacts would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the
exception of increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible
elevated seas/increased rip current risk Mon-Wed. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Mon-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed/Thurs. Temperatures, tempered somewhat by clouds and
possible convection, should be near normal through the period. Highs
mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to
influx of higher dew point air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure off the North Carolina will dominate the weather
during the 00Z TAF period. Scattered convection near the lee-side of
the Appalachians was in the process of diminishing and is not
expected to have an effect on the TAF sites. A mainly clear sky is
expected overnight with the exception of some scattered clouds at
around 6K TO 8K ft. Southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots increase to
around 10 to 15 knots on Friday. No fog is expected Friday morning
as dew point depressions will remain several degrees and at least
a light breeze is forecast.

OUTLOOK...No significant precipitation is expected through Saturday.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Sunday through
Tuesday. Low pressure north of the Bahamas will become better
organized as it moves to the South Carolina coast this coming
weekend. Moisture increases from the south in association with this
low.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW winds 5-15 kt will continue through midday Sat before winds
become more ESE at similar speeds into Sunday. Seas will remain 2-3
ft thru Sat. Watching for possible low pressure development off the
southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased
seas/deteriorated conditions to the local waters Sun/Mon. For
now...SE winds avg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas may approach 5 ft...esp
off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* Norfolk had their first 90 degree day Thursday. The other
  climate sites are still waiting for their first day.

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Friday
morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261052
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the North Carolina coast
through today, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast on
Friday. Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday,
and will move into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Going with a blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF models for the
near/short term conditions. The upper ridge will slowly bld n and
ovr the Mid atlc region today and Fri, with sfc hi pres remaining
cntrd off the VA/NC cst thru Fri. This will keep the area mainly
dry and warm, despite increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny
sky this morning, with a bit more in the way of aftn cu as dwpts
will be into the 60s (sky will avg partly-mostly sunny in the
aftn). With 850mb temps rising to 16-17C this aftn, expect high
temps about 1-3 F warmer, in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the
inland zones, ranging thru the lwr to mid 80s near the immediate
cst. If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be
the first time this season (see climate section). High res models
genly keep bulk of tstm activity out of the cwa until late this
aftn, so will carry a 20% POP over much of the interior of VA
after 3pm, with a small area to arnd 30% in the far NW (dry acrs
the SE). Any convection should wane rather quickly after sunset,
and will have 20% POPS acrs mainly the nrn 1/2 of the CWA thru
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy, warm and somewhat humid tngt with
lows in the mid to upr 60s. Forecast soundings again not real
enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just
some minimal forcing due to lee trof and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. So, will generally maintain ~20%
POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the mid to upr 80s, and an
increase in sse flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along
the cst with highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. Mostly clear to
partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid 60s. For Sat,
models remain in generally good agreement at keeping the deeper
moisture associated with the low off the SE cst to our south. So,
will keep only a minimal chc for aftn showers/tstms confined to
extrm srn VA and ne NC, with a partly sunny sky south to a mostly
sunny sky north. Highs in the mid to upr 80s inland/piedmont
areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the cst.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough
Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas
during the weekend.

Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at RIC...and psbl
isold tstm this eve invof RIC...VFR conds through 12z taf pd.
FEW-SCT cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10
kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for
a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then
chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary through Sat. Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns nr the
mdatlc wtrs through Fri...providing mnly SSW wnds aob 15 kt.
Beyond that...SE wnds around 10 kt are expected Sat. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst this
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs. For now...SE winds avgg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas
may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260653
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast through
Thursday, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday.
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday, and will
push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High level moisture in the form of ci / ac spilling over the mts
and across the fa this evening. Adjusted cloud grid a bit to
indicated mostly clear skies vs skc. latest LAV and CONSShort
data suggest some late night fog over portions of the piedmont
but overall coverage to low to mention in the forecast. Lows
60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the
pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to
slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and
fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite
increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a
bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s
(skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps
rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer,
in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging
through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of
tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP
over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to
around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across
mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and
somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will
genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the
mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler
than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows
in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at
keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE
coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for
aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with
partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s N to the lower 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough
Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas
during the weekend.

Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at kphf...and psbl
isold tstm this eve invof RIC...vfr conds through 06z taf pd.
Few- Sct cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10
kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for
a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then
chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary through Sat. Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns nr the
mdatlc wtrs through Fri...providing mnly SSW wnds aob 15 kt.
Beyond that...SE wnds around 10 kt are expected Sat. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst this
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs. For now...SE winds avgg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas
may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB/JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260554
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
154 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast through
Thursday, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday.
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday, and will
push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High level moisture in the form of ci / ac spilling over the mts
and across the fa this evening. Adjusted cloud grid a bit to
indicated mostly clear skies vs skc. latest LAV and CONSShort
data suggest some late night fog over portions of the piedmont
but overall coverage to low to mention in the forecast. Lows
60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the
pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to
slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and
fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite
increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a
bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s
(skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps
rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer,
in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging
through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of
tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP
over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to
around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across
mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and
somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will
genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the
mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler
than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows
in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at
keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE
coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for
aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with
partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s N to the lower 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the wxthrough
Fri. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the Carolinas
during the weekend.

Other than psbl lgt fg early this mrng...esp at kphf...and psbl
isold tstm this eve invof RIC...vfr conds through 06z taf pd.
Few- Sct cu xpcd midday through mid aftn. SSW wnds aob 10
kt...though lcl sea breeze psbl at ORF/ECG (w/ direction to SE for
a pd this aftn). Chcs for pcpn rmng very lo through Sat...then
chcs for shras/tstms increase Sun/Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions are expected through Thursday with high
pressure off the Carolina coast producing S-SW winds 5-15 kt and
seas 2-3 ft. Pressure gradient tightens a bit on Friday between the
offshore high and a Piedmont trough so that S winds average 10-15
kt. This may briefly push seas to 3-4 ft across the northern coastal
waters. Beyond that...SE winds around 10 kt are expected Saturday
with seas 2-3 ft. Watching for possible low pressure development off
the southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased seas
to the local waters Sun/Mon. As of now...winds look to remain SE 10-
15 kt Sun/Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252359
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
759 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered off the southeast coast tonight
through Thursday...and will push well off the Mid Atlantic coast
by Friday. Low pressure will slowly approach from the south on
Saturday, and will push into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure to the south results in mainly clear skies tonight
with lows 60-65. Dew pts are progged to rise a bit with some
patchy fog possible after midnight. Overall coverage to low to
mention in the forecast attm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There is good model consensus between the NAM/GFS/ECMWF with the
pattern through the next several days, the upper ridge looks to
slowly push north and become centered off the VA/NC coast Thu and
fri, which should keep the area mainly dry and warm, despite
increasing humidity. Expect a mainly sunny morning on Thu, with a
bit more in the way of aftn cu as dew pts will be into the 60s
(skies avg partly-mostly sunny in the aftn). With 850mb temps
rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect high temps about 1-3 F warmer,
in the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland zones, ranging
through the lower-mid 80s near the immediate coast. If any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models genly keep bulk of
tstm activity out of the cwa until late aftn, will carry a 20% POP
over much of the interior of VA after 3pm, with a small area to
around 30% in the far NW (dry across the SE). Any convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, will have 20% POPS across
mainly the northern 1/2 of the CWA through midnight. Warm and
somewhat humid with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Forecast soundings again not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm
chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just some minimal forcing due to
lee trof and weak instability along/east of the mountains (will
genly have ~20% POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the
mid/upr 80s...an increase in SSE flow should keep it a tad cooler
than Thu along the coast with highs in the upr 70s/lwr 80s. Lows
in the 60s. For Sat, models remain are in good agreement at
keeping the deeper moisture associated with the low off the SE
coast to our south, and overall should only have a minimal chc for
aftn showers/tstms confined to extreme southern VA and ne NC, with
partly sunny skies south to mostly sunny north. Highs in the mid-
upper 80s N to the lower 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure off the Southeast coast will control the weather
through Friday. Low pressure east of the Bahamas will approach the
Carolinas during the weekend.

Quiet aviation conditions prevailed early Wednesday evening with
light winds...variable at times...and just high thin cirrus
overhead. Little change is indiated for the 00Z TAF period.
Scattered cumulus clouds are expected Thursday afternoon. Dew points
should remain low enough to prevent fog Thursday morning. Winds are
forecast to be below 10 knots through Thursday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Chances for pcpn will be quite low through Saturday. Those
chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions are expected through Thursday with high
pressure off the Carolina coast producing S-SW winds 5-15 kt and
seas 2-3 ft. Pressure gradient tightens a bit on Friday between the
offshore high and a Piedmont trough so that S winds average 10-15
kt. This may briefly push seas to 3-4 ft across the northern coastal
waters. Beyond that...SE winds around 10 kt are expected Saturday
with seas 2-3 ft. Watching for possible low pressure development off
the southeast coast by this weekend...which may bring increased seas
to the local waters Sun/Mon. As of now...winds look to remain SE 10-
15 kt Sun/Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE 88D RADAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB/BMD/JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250825
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
425 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across the Mid Atlantic region then off
the coast today through tonight...then remain centered well off
the Mid Atlantic coast through Friday. Weak low pressure will
approach from the south Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridging and sfc hi pres will slide acrs the area to
the cst today into tngt. Lots of sunshine combined with a wsw sfc
wind and 850 mb temps expected to rise to ~15C this aftn, will
result in High temps in the mid to upr 80s most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper rdg and sfc hi pres will be off the cst or right alng
the cst Thu thru Fri. Expect a mostly sunny or partly sunny sky
both days with a little more humidity, as sw or s flo continues.
With 850mb temps rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect High temps in
the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland/piedmont of va/nc.
High temps ranging thru the 80s ovr the lwr md and va ern shr.
If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it
will be the first time this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs the
next few days. Have slgt or sml chc pops ovr wrn/nw counties for
Thu aftn, and just slgt chc pops for now ovr those same areas for
Fri aftn, due to potential lee trof and weak instability alng/east
of the mountains. Highs on Fri in the mid/upr 80s...upr 70s/lwr
80s immediate cst. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 06z TAF period. Dry/VFR wx is xpcd through Thu/Fri.
Moisture associated with low pressure in the Bahamas is expected
to spread precipitation to the area during the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain aob 10 kt during the next 24
hours...generally fm the WSW. Little or no clouds are expected.
Limited or no fg xpcd this mrng.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary the next few days. Hi pres sfc-aloft
builds acrs the wtrs through tda...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs
through Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250659
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FYI...echoes drifting e across somerset county md appear to be
chaff as sat pictures/sfc obs do not support pcpn in that area.

Otw...expect mainly clear skies as high pres builds into the
region from the w. Lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 06z TAF period. Dry/VFR wx is xpcd through Thu/Fri.
Moisture associated with low pressure in the Bahamas is expected
to spread precipitation to the area during the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain aob 10 kt during the next 24
hours...generally fm the WSW. Little or no clouds are expected.
Limited or no fg xpcd this mrng.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary the next few days. Hi pres sfc-aloft
builds acrs the wtrs through tda...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs
through Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.


&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242357
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
757 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
low pressure continues to lift slowly NE and away from the New
England coast tonight with high pressure building in from the
west. Expect mainly clear skies with Lows in the mid 50s NW to
the mid 60s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stlt shows upper level low still situated on the New England coast.
The threat for showers this evening has ended over the area around
the TAF sites and dry weather is forecast for the next few days.
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 00z TAF period. Moisture associated with low pressure in
the Bahamas is expected to spread precipitation to the area during
the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain below 10 knots during the next 24
hours...generally from a west or southwest direction. Little or no
clouds are expected. Dew points will likely be too low for fog
Wednesday morning and most locations will have a light breeze
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri
as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at
least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters
during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.

Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking
a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas
Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds
generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to
build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun
night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun...
building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore
swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model
solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing
wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 242314
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
714 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
low pressure continues to lift slowly NE and away from the New
England coast tonight with high pressure building in from the
west. Expect mainly clear skies with Lows in the mid 50s NW to
the mid 60s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ,
Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W
flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and
look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs
that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm
can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the
probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer
like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog
late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture
from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but
isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A
somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri
as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at
least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters
during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.

Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking
a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas
Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds
generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to
build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun
night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun...
building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore
swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model
solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing
wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241948
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast along the New England coast as high
pressure settles over the area tonight. High pressure then shifts
southeast and off the coast for the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Sfc low pressure currently resides over coastal Massachusetts.
That low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the New
England coast tonight. Other than an isolated shower chance
mainly along/south of I-64 late this aftn/eve...expect a mainly
clear sky tonight. Lows in the mid 50s NW to the mid 60s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions Wednesday, before
sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by
Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by Thursday afternoon. This
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland...with a
few 90s possible Thursday afternoon. If any of our primary
climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it will be the first time
this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about afternoon
thunderstorm chances the next few days. Wednesday looks dry. Have
isolated thunderstorm chances mainly over the Piedmont
Thursday/Friday near potential lee trough and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. Highs Friday in the mid/upr 80s...upr
70s/low 80s immediate coast. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ,
Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W
flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and
look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs
that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm
can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the
probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer
like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog
late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture
from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but
isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A
somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds become more s-sw aob 15kt late tonight through Fri
as high pressure sfc-aloft settles over the area through at
least Fri night. Conditions generally quiet over the waters
during this time with seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft.

Long range models coming into better agreement with tracking
a low pressure system into the Southeast coast/Carolinas
Fri night-Tue. Winds become more e-se/onshore with speeds
generally aob 15kt during this timeframe. Seas anticipated to
build to 3-4ft Fri night-Sun...then building to 4-5ft Sun
night into Tue. Waves in Ches Bay still around 1-2ft Sat-Sun...
building in srn Ches Bay to 2-3ft Sun due to increasing onshore
swell/seas. At this time, the GFS is the most aggressive model
solution and therefore have only nudge about 25% of the ongoing
wave height forecast twd WaveWatch guidance.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241756
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during
today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure
will move right over the area tonight...then slides off the coast
for Wednesday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc low pressure currently sits off the New England coast. That
low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the local area
today. One last piece of energy/associated lift rotating SE on the
back side of the departing low will provide a slight chance for
showers this afternoon (during peak heating). Otherwise, expect
sunshine to mix with some clouds...and warmer temps across the
area. Highs will be in the upr 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tonight into
Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb
temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by
Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with
low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate
Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to
near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide
into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal
sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections
indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence
and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent
range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally
typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal
coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to
mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late
afternoon hours both Wed/Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves
over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying
to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during
Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon,
the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due
to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through
at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic
Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am
starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution...
especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an
outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in
this direction regarding precip and temperatures.

High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended
forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees
above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to
mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around
5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and
lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around
5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in
the mid 60s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc low pressure situated from the New England coast sw to NJ,
Drier air and VFR conditions prevail acrs the local area with a W
flow, although sct/bkn CU are now pushing SE from the mtns and
look to overspread area terminals shortly. Still VFR in any cigs
that prevail for a few hrs and while an isolated shower or tstm
can`t be ruled out through around 00Z this evening, the
probability is too low to include in any TAF. A much more summer
like pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some patchy fog
late at night/through sunrise especially with all of the moisture
from recent rains. Not much in the way of rain chances, but
isolated late aftn/evening tstms will be possible Thu and Fri. A
somewhat more unsettled pattern potentially returns by Sat night/Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lo pres well e of DE/srn NJ early this mrng tracks sloly ne and away
fm the mdatlc rgn tda. Conds blo SCA for the wtrs tda. WNW wnds
aob 15 kt become SW lt. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs
tngt- Wed...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through
Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Will cont to monitor
psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...JDM/TMG
SHORT TERM...MAM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241410
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1010 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during
today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure
will move right over the area tonight...then slides off the coast
for Wednesday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Sfc low pressure currently sits off the New England coast. That
low will continue to lift slowly NE and away from the local area
today. One last piece of energy/associated lift rotating SE on the
back side of the departing low will provide a slight chance for
showers this afternoon (during peak heating). Otherwise, expect
sunshine to mix with some clouds...and warmer temps across the
area. Highs will be in the upr 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tonight into
Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb
temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by
Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with
low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate
Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to
near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide
into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal
sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections
indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence
and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent
range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally
typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal
coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to
mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late
afternoon hours both Wed/Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves
over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying
to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during
Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon,
the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due
to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through
at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic
Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am
starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution...
especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an
outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in
this direction regarding precip and temperatures.

High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended
forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees
above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to
mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around
5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and
lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around
5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in
the mid 60s).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc lo pres off the mdatlc cst will cont to track ne and away fm
the rgn through tda. Drier air fm the W sloly spreads ovr the fa
through tda...resulting in VFR conds. Very lo prob for isold tstm
ern VA...lwr SE MD this aftn/early eve. A much more summer like
pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some fog at night
especially with all of the moisture from recent rains.

&&

.MARINE...
Lo pres well e of DE/srn NJ early this mrng tracks sloly ne and away
fm the mdatlc rgn tda. Conds blo SCA for the wtrs tda. WNW wnds
aob 15 kt become SW lt. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs
tngt- Wed...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through
Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Will cont to monitor
psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...MAM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ





000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241045
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
645 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast off the New England coast during
today, while high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure
will move right over the area tonight...then slides off the coast
for Wednesday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morng, sfc low pressure was sitting well off the New
Jersey coast. That low will move away to the ne during today just
off the New England cst. One last piece of energy/associated lift
on the back side of the departing low will provide slgt to chc
pops for showers ovr the nrn and ern portions of the region thru
abt 8 or 9 am. Otherwise, expect increasing sunshine and warmer
temps acrs the area. Highs will be in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. In
that warmth, lingering weak instabilty, and one last upr lvl
disturbance rotating thru behind the upr trof, there could be an
isltd shower or tstm this aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad upper level ridging builds northeast from the Deep South
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region Tonight into
Wednesday, before sliding overhead into Thursday. 850mb
temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon...and 16-17c by
Thursday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb, and
should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with
low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate
Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. After morning lows in the 50s to
near 60, high temperatures creep up about a category area wide
into the upper 80s/around 90 inland (low to mid 80s coastal
sections) on Thursday. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections
indicate rather dry conditions aloft,owing mainly to subsidence
and light downslope flow aloft. Will therefore keep pops in silent
range <10% on Wed, with only slight chc for more seasonally
typical diurnally-driven pulse convection on Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Light downslope flow will likely keep areal
coverage of any convection on the low side, and will also serve to
mix dewpoints down into the mid/upper 50s in the mid to late
afternoon hours both Wed/Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
through the long term periods as mid-upper level ridging moves
over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the GFS is trying
to develop low pressure over the Caribbean/Bahamas during
Thu night/Fri and then tracking it into the Carolinas Sat-Mon,
the ECMWF is keeping this system suppressed farther south due
to mid-upper ridging well-rooted across the ne CONUS through
at least Sun night before beginning to impact the Mid Atlantic
Region. WPC forecast is also very similar to the ECMWF and am
starting to lean more twd this warmer and drier solution...
especially since GFS ensembles support the GFS as more of an
outlier at this point. Will trend the long range forecast in
this direction regarding precip and temperatures.

High temps continue to run above normal throughout the extended
forecast periods and are now closer to being around 10 degrees
above normal Fri (highs in the upper 80s inland...upper 70s to
mid 80s immediate coast). For Sat-Mon, temps are around
5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the mid 80s Sat/Sun and
lower 80s Mon). Low temps also still trending around
5-10 degrees above normal Thu-Sun nights (lows generally in
the mid 60s).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc lo pres off the mdatlc cst will cont to track ne and away fm
the rgn through tda. Drier air fm the W sloly spreads ovr the fa
through tda...resulting in VFR conds. Very lo prob for isold tstm
ern VA...lwr SE MD this aftn/early eve. A much more summer like
pattern is expected for the rest of the week. VFR conditions
expected mostly, however one could not rule out some fog at night
especially with all of the moisture from recent rains.

&&

.MARINE...
Lo pres well e of DE/srn NJ early this mrng tracks sloly ne and away
fm the mdatlc rgn tda. Conds blo SCA for the wtrs tda. WNW wnds
aob 15 kt become SW lt. Hi pres sfc-aloft builds acrs the wtrs
tngt- Wed...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs through
Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Will cont to monitor
psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 21 UTC/5 pm EDT Observation at Richmond (KRIC), rain total
for the day is 0.60". This would bring monthly total to 8.41" for
May. May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record
at Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...MAM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...





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