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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190232
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1032 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF SFC LO PRES AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. HEAVY
RAIN/MINOR FLOODING AND WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH STILL PSBL WITH
THESE STOMRS. LOWERED POPS TO 20-30% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED ALBEIT STILL MOIST LOW LVLS AND
WEAK FORCING. MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDS...AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AS
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND REMNANT MOISTURE REMAIN. CONFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL ALLOW COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXTENDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. COMBINATION OF
NWLY FLOW...LOWER HEIGHTS AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S WEDS AFTERNOON.
REMNANT MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE FOR
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. N/NELY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. ONSHORE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE (THANKS TO OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S) AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH AND NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRI. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THURS-FRI. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION WILL STALL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH BEST MOISTURE REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY W OF THE FA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW AND ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE (MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). COOL
MORNING TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 60S. SOME INLAND LOCALES (ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT)
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL
PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S SATURDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD FROM AROUND 65 EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVD MOSTLY INTO SE VA
AND NE NC AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THRU MIDNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES PUSHES THRU THE AREA. FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL START TO DRY OUT AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WESTERNMOST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W-CENTRAL NC WILL LIFT ENE
OVERNIGHT AND PULL OFF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHALLOW NORTHERLY CAA SURGE SHOULD FOLLOW AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THE
COAST. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO UNDER-ESTIMATE THESE TYPE
OF SURGES...SO A SHORT-DURATION LOW-END SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES/SOUND FROM 08-14Z (4-10AM). AS FOR THE OCEAN...THE
WIND WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME NE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF CAPE COD. AT THIS TIME THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILDS SEAS TO 5FT...SO
NO SCA AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH LINGERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY
10-15KT ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN 3-4FT SEAS. THE HIGH
SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND
SHIFTING TO S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...AJZ


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR...SHORTWAVE HAS REACHED EXTREME WRN VA. AT
THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS MADE VERY LITTLE SRN PUSH FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALIGNED FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WAVE ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OBSERVED ON RADAR/OBS LOCATED OVER CNTRL VA HAS HELPED
ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AS WAVES ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.
THE MOST PROMINENT WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TN AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. SFC WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS NRN NC/SRN VA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT EWD ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS
OCCURS...BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (1000-1200
J/KG CAPE) ACROSS ERN VA INTO NERN NC. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVER CNTRL
VA...WEAK LAPSE RATES DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIP WATERS ~2
INCHES) WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. WEAK TO
MARGINAL SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIP WATER REMAIN
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NWRN VA
LATE TONIGHT...HELPING PUSH THE FRONT OFFSHORE. BEST MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE...BUT REMNANT MOISTURE AND SUBTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDS...AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AS
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND REMNANT MOISTURE REMAIN. CONFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL ALLOW COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXTENDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. COMBINATION OF
NWLY FLOW...LOWER HEIGHTS AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S WEDS AFTERNOON.
REMNANT MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE FOR
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. N/NELY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. ONSHORE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE (THANKS TO OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S) AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH AND NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRI. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THURS-FRI. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION WILL STALL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH BEST MOISTURE REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY W OF THE FA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW AND ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE (MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). COOL
MORNING TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 60S. SOME INLAND LOCALES (ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT)
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL
PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S SATURDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD FROM AROUND 65 EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVD MOSTLY INTO SE VA
AND NE NC AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THRU MIDNIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES PUSHES THRU THE AREA. FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL START TO DRY OUT AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WESTERNMOST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W-CENTRAL NC WILL LIFT ENE
OVERNIGHT AND PULL OFF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHALLOW NORTHERLY CAA SURGE SHOULD FOLLOW AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THE
COAST. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO UNDER-ESTIMATE THESE TYPE
OF SURGES...SO A SHORT-DURATION LOW-END SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES/SOUND FROM 08-14Z (4-10AM). AS FOR THE OCEAN...THE
WIND WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME NE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF CAPE COD. AT THIS TIME THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILDS SEAS TO 5FT...SO
NO SCA AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH LINGERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY
10-15KT ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN 3-4FT SEAS. THE HIGH
SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND
SHIFTING TO S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...AJZ


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR...SHORTWAVE HAS REACHED EXTREME WRN VA. AT
THE SFC...COLD FRONT HAS MADE VERY LITTLE SRN PUSH FROM EARLIER
TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALIGNED FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WAVE ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OBSERVED ON RADAR/OBS LOCATED OVER CNTRL VA HAS HELPED
ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AS WAVES ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.
THE MOST PROMINENT WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TN AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. SFC WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS NRN NC/SRN VA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT EWD ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS
OCCURS...BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (1000-1200
J/KG CAPE) ACROSS ERN VA INTO NERN NC. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND LOW LEVEL WSWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVER CNTRL
VA...WEAK LAPSE RATES DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIP WATERS ~2
INCHES) WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN. WEAK TO
MARGINAL SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIP WATER REMAIN
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NWRN VA
LATE TONIGHT...HELPING PUSH THE FRONT OFFSHORE. BEST MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE...BUT REMNANT MOISTURE AND SUBTLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS WILL LOCATE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDS...AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AS
SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND REMNANT MOISTURE REMAIN. CONFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL ALLOW COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...EXTENDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. COMBINATION OF
NWLY FLOW...LOWER HEIGHTS AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S WEDS AFTERNOON.
REMNANT MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE FOR
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. N/NELY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. ONSHORE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
70S OVER THE MD/VA ERN SHORE (THANKS TO OCEAN TEMPS STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S) AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH AND NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRI. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THURS-FRI. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRONT CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION WILL STALL OFF THE SE
COAST...WITH BEST MOISTURE REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO STAY W OF THE FA. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS NWLY FLOW AND ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE (MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). COOL
MORNING TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 60S. SOME INLAND LOCALES (ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN VA PIEDMONT)
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL
PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S SATURDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD FROM AROUND 65 EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT
CIGS AND VIS TO LOWER BRIEFLY INTO MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR)
CONDITIONS UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS WELL.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL START TO DRY OUT AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED SW-NE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WESTERNMOST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER W-CENTRAL NC WILL LIFT ENE
OVERNIGHT AND PULL OFF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHALLOW NORTHERLY CAA SURGE SHOULD FOLLOW AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THE
COAST. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO UNDER-ESTIMATE THESE TYPE
OF SURGES...SO A SHORT-DURATION LOW-END SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BAY/LOWER JAMES/SOUND FROM 08-14Z (4-10AM). AS FOR THE OCEAN...THE
WIND WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME NE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF OF CAPE COD. AT THIS TIME THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILDS SEAS TO 5FT...SO
NO SCA AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH LINGERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY
10-15KT ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN 3-4FT SEAS. THE HIGH
SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND
SHIFTING TO S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...AJZ


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CTRL AND ERN CONUS AS STRONG UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LOCATES OVER CTRL QUEBEC. TWO PROMINENT SHORTWAVES IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE FIRST IS LOCATED OVER KY/TN WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY DIGGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
HAS ALIGNED FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN PA AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN VA...WITH MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS
NRN NC/SRN VA AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SWWD. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AN INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE ABUNDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
(850-700MB MOISTURE FLUX +2-3 STD DEV) WITH PRECIP WATERS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES (~+1.5 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A FLOOD WATCH AS SYSTEM REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS IS
PROBABLE. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK OVER CTRL
VA...CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL THUNDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES. ACROSS SE VA/NE NC...BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SHOWERS. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID
80S/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS (0-6KM MUCAPE 1000-1200 J/KG). STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG WINDS UP TO 40 MPH UNDER
THE STRONGEST STORMS. WEAK SHEAR WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. RICH MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PUSH OFFSHORE. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIG OVER THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDS MORNING. REMNANT MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN POST
FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN VA AND NERN
NC.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S NW (EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RAINFALL) TO MID 80S
SE. MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LO PRES TRACKS OFF THE CST TNGT W/ CDFNT SETTLING S INTO THE
CAROLINAS. CHCS FOR HEAVY RAIN DCRS AFT MDNGT...THOUGH KEEPING
POPS MNLY BTWN 30-50%. WNDS BECOME N OVRNGT...THOUGH DRYING WILL
BE LMTD. SFC HI PRES FM THE N WILL BE SLO TO BUILD INTO THE RGN ON
WED. TSECTIONS SHOWING CONTD MOISTURE IN LO LVLS AND W/ NNE
FLO...CLRG LIKELY TO BE SLO/GRADUAL. POPS MNLY 20% N TO 30% ACRS
THE SRN VA/NE NC.

SFC HI PRES AND DRY AIR EXPAND TO THE SSE WED NGT THROUGH THU
RESULTING IN CLRG AND COOLER CONDS. MDLS (ESP THE GFS) DO SUGGEST
PTNTL FOR DIURNAL CNVTN THU OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MNLY W OF THE
FA.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M70S AT
THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U50S TO M60S.
HI TEMPS THU FM ARND 80F AT THE CST TO THE M80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT
CIGS AND VIS TO LOWER BRIEFLY INTO MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR)
CONDITIONS UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS WELL.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL START TO DRY OUT AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...
EARLY THIS MORNG...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING INTO OH AND
PA...WHILE LO PRES WAS MOVNG INTO W/CTRL TN. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA LATER TODAY THRU WED
MORNG. SSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DURING TODAY...WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNE FM N-S LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...THEN REMAIN NE INTO THU...AS
HI PRES BLDS OVR NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES LINGERS OFF THE CST. WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR NOW...ESPLY OVR THE CHES
BAY...WHILE ONSHR FLO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BLD SEAS TO 5 FT WED
INTO WED NGT. THE HI SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE CST LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE WIND VEERING FM NE-S AND REMAINING
AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 181511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1111 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS AS STRONG UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LOCATES OVER CNTRL QUEBEC. TWO PROMINENT SHORTWAVES IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE FIRST IS LOCATED OVER KY/TN WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY DIGGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
HAS ALIGNED FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN PA AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN VA...WITH MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY...SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS
NRN NC/SRN VA AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SWWD. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AN INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE WEST. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE ABUNDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
(850-700MB MOISTURE FLUX +2-3 STD DEV) WITH PRECIP WATERS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES (~+1.5 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A FLOOD WATCH AS SYSTEM REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS IS
PROBABLE. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK OVER CNTRL
VA...CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL THUNDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES. ACROSS SE VA/NE NC...BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SHOWERS. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID
80S/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS (0-6KM MUCAPE 1000-1200 J/KG). STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG WINDS UP TO 40 MPH UNDER
THE STRONGEST STORMS. WEAK SHEAR WILL PREVENT OVERALL ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. RICH MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PUSH OFFSHORE. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIG OVER THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDS MORNING. REMNANT MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN POST
FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS ERN VA AND NERN
NC.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S NW (EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RAINFALL) TO MID 80S
SE. MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LO PRES TRACKS OFF THE CST TNGT W/ CDFNT SETTLING S INTO THE
CAROLINAS. CHCS FOR HEAVY RAIN DCRS AFT MDNGT...THOUGH KEEPING
POPS MNLY BTWN 30-50%. WNDS BECOME N OVRNGT...THOUGH DRYING WILL
BE LMTD. SFC HI PRES FM THE N WILL BE SLO TO BUILD INTO THE RGN ON
WED. TSECTIONS SHOWING CONTD MOISTURE IN LO LVLS AND W/ NNE
FLO...CLRG LIKELY TO BE SLO/GRADUAL. POPS MNLY 20% N TO 30% ACRS
THE SRN VA/NE NC.

SFC HI PRES AND DRY AIR EXPAND TO THE SSE WED NGT THROUGH THU
RESULTING IN CLRG AND COOLER CONDS. MDLS (ESP THE GFS) DO SUGGEST
PTNTL FOR DIURNAL CNVTN THU OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MNLY W OF THE
FA.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M70S AT
THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U50S TO M60S.
HI TEMPS THU FM ARND 80F AT THE CST TO THE M80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO PRES AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY THRU WED
MORNG. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS MORNG...DUE TO SSW
FLO CAUSING SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS. THAT LO PRES AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR THE
REGION...ESPLY FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY WED MORNG. A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS
OR STRONGER STORMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER
WED THRU THU...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA THEN OFF THE NRN MID
ATLC CST.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY THIS MORNG...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING INTO OH AND
PA...WHILE LO PRES WAS MOVNG INTO W/CNTRL TN. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA LATER TODAY THRU WED
MORNG. SSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DURING TODAY...WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNE FM N-S LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...THEN REMAIN NE INTO THU...AS
HI PRES BLDS OVR NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES LINGERS OFF THE CST. WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR NOW...ESPLY OVR THE CHES
BAY...WHILE ONSHR FLO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BLD SEAS TO 5 FT WED
INTO WED NGT. THE HI SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE CST LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE WIND VEERING FM NE-S AND REMAINING
AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WK SFC LO PRES INVOF LWR OH VLY ATTM...W/ CDFNT ALIGNED FM THE SRN
LAKES ENE INTO CNTRL NEW ENG. THE FNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE TO THE S
TDA...WHILE LO PRES TRACKS EWD AND ENTERS THE MDATLC THIS AFTN.
MDL TSECTIONS SHOWING DECENT AREA OF UVM ENTERING THE RGN AFT
18Z/18. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS W OF THE MTNS THE PAST
24 HRS...AND XPCG DVLPMNT HERE BY THIS AFTN/EVE. PWTR AVGG 2" OVR
THE RGN. WILL MENTION LCLLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN. STARTING OUT
W/ VRB CLDNS/PCLDY CONDS...THEN QUICKLY BECOMING MCLDY. THE CLDNS
AND DVLPG PCPN HOLD TEMPS DOWN TDA. HI TEMPS MNLY FM 80 TO 85F.
MOST AREAS HAVE HAD A DECENT BREAK FM SGFNT RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLDG FM ANY HVY RAINFALL LTR TDA. NO WATCH
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LO PRES TRACKS OFF THE CST TNGT W/ CDFNT SETTLING S INTO THE
CAROLINAS. CHCS FOR HEAVY RAIN DCRS AFT MDNGT...THOUGH KEEPING
POPS MNLY BTWN 30-50%. WNDS BECOME N OVRNGT...THOUGH DRYING WILL
BE LMTD. SFC HI PRES FM THE N WILL BE SLO TO BUILD INTO THE RGN ON
WED. TSECTIONS SHOWING CONTD MOISTURE IN LO LVLS AND W/ NNE
FLO...CLRG LIKELY TO BE SLO/GRADUAL. POPS MNLY 20% N TO 30% ACRS
THE SRN VA/NE NC.

SFC HI PRES AND DRY AIR EXPAND TO THE SSE WED NGT THROUGH THU
RESULTING IN CLRG AND COOLER CONDS. MDLS (ESP THE GFS) DO SUGGEST
PTNTL FOR DIURNAL CNVTN THU OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MNLY W OF THE
FA.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M70S AT
THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U50S TO M60S.
HI TEMPS THU FM ARND 80F AT THE CST TO THE M80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO PRES AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY THRU WED
MORNG. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS MORNG...DUE TO SSW
FLO CAUSING SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS. THAT LO PRES AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR THE
REGION...ESPLY FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY WED MORNG. A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS
OR STRONGER STORMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER
WED THRU THU...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA THEN OFF THE NRN MID
ATLC CST.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY THIS MORNG...A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING INTO OH AND
PA...WHILE LO PRES WAS MOVNG INTO W/CNTRL TN. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA LATER TODAY THRU WED
MORNG. SSW WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DURING TODAY...WILL SHIFT TO THE
NNE FM N-S LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...THEN REMAIN NE INTO THU...AS
HI PRES BLDS OVR NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES LINGERS OFF THE CST. WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR NOW...ESPLY OVR THE CHES
BAY...WHILE ONSHR FLO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BLD SEAS TO 5 FT WED
INTO WED NGT. THE HI SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE CST LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE WIND VEERING FM NE-S AND REMAINING
AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180712
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
312 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WK SFC LO PRES INVOF LWR OH VLY ATTM...W/ CDFNT ALIGNED FM THE SRN
LAKES ENE INTO CNTRL NEW ENG. THE FNT WILL CONT TO SETTLE TO THE S
TDA...WHILE LO PRES TRACKS EWD AND ENTERS THE MDATLC THIS AFTN.
MDL TSECTIONS SHOWING DECENT AREA OF UVM ENTERING THE RGN AFT
18Z/18. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSTMS W OF THE MTNS THE PAST
24 HRS...AND XPCG DVLPMNT HERE BY THIS AFTN/EVE. PWTR AVGG 2" OVR
THE RGN. WILL MENTION LCLLY HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN. STARTING OUT
W/ VRB CLDNS/PCLDY CONDS...THEN QUICKLY BECOMING MCLDY. THE CLDNS
AND DVLPG PCPN HOLD TEMPS DOWN TDA. HI TEMPS MNLY FM 80 TO 85F.
MOST AREAS HAVE HAD A DECENT BREAK FM SGFNT RAINFALL...BUT WILL
NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLDG FM ANY HVY RAINFALL LTR TDA. NO WATCH
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LO PRES TRACKS OFF THE CST TNGT W/ CDFNT SETTLING S INTO THE
CAROLINAS. CHCS FOR HEAVY RAIN DCRS AFT MDNGT...THOUGH KEEPING
POPS MNLY BTWN 30-50%. WNDS BECOME N OVRNGT...THOUGH DRYING WILL
BE LMTD. SFC HI PRES FM THE N WILL BE SLO TO BUILD INTO THE RGN ON
WED. TSECTIONS SHOWING CONTD MOISTURE IN LO LVLS AND W/ NNE
FLO...CLRG LIKELY TO BE SLO/GRADUAL. POPS MNLY 20% N TO 30% ACRS
THE SRN VA/NE NC.

SFC HI PRES AND DRY AIR EXPAND TO THE SSE WED NGT THROUGH THU
RESULTING IN CLRG AND COOLER CONDS. MDLS (ESP THE GFS) DO SUGGEST
PTNTL FOR DIURNAL CNVTN THU OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MNLY W OF THE
FA.

LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M70S AT
THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO TEMPS WED NGT FM THE U50S TO M60S.
HI TEMPS THU FM ARND 80F AT THE CST TO THE M80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO PRES AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY THRU WED
MORNG. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS MORNG...DUE TO SSW
FLO CAUSING SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS. THAT LO PRES AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR THE
REGION...ESPLY FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY WED MORNG. A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS
OR STRONGER STORMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER
WED THRU THU...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA THEN OFF THE NRN MID
ATLC CST.

&&

.MARINE...
A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY DROPPING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WIND SHIFT IS VERY LOCALIZED AT THIS TIME...WITH SW
FLOW RECOVERING N OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO PA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
19/12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE INTO W-CENTRAL NC WHILE THE 19/12Z NAM
LAGS THE LOW BACK OVER TN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 19/12Z ECMWF HAS
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS NC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING
VERIFIES THE WIND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT TO NNE FROM N-S LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NNE/NE THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
COAST. SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SCA FLAGS AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THE EARLIEST COMMENCEMENT
OF SCA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LATE 3RD PERIOD INTO 4TH PERIOD.
THE HIGH SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM NE-S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180608
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL MAINTAIN ISO-SCT SHWRS ERLY TNGT WITH DECENT LO-LVL MOISTURE
ALBEIT WEAK FORCING. MOST PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FA TNGT
WHERE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGHER. OTW...EXPECT PRTLY CLDY SKIES
ON AVG WITH SOME DRYING IN MID LVLS. MILD TEMPS WITH LGT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER ERN CANADA TONIGHT/TUES
MORNING...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA) WILL DIVE DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LOCATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUES AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE TN
VALLEY...LIFTING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY. THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW (H85
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT) AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION (ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE NC) TUES-WEDS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES (NEARLY +2 STD DEV) BY TUES
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC LOW WILL
PROGRESS EWD TUESDAY...REACHING NRN NC LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT (THANKS TO RRQ OF
DEPARTING 100+ KT UPPER JET) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TUES MORNING...AND SPREADING EWD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN VA/SERN VA/NE NC. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...SO ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DEEP LIFT WILL RESULT IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW CROSSES NRN NC TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT OFF THE VA COAST AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE OH
VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AROUND THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER SRN VA TUES
NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THAT REGION.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING...SETTLING
OVER THE CAROLINAS WED. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER SRN
VA/NRN NC THROUGH EARLY WEDS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL USHER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/SFC FRONT...SHUNTING THE
BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY WEDS NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST. DRY THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION AND MOISTURE SOURCE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY (LOW/MID 80S) WILL COOL TO NEARLY
-1 STD DEV WED AND THURS (LOW 80S). LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 50S SOME LOCALES BY THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO PRES AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY THRU WED
MORNG. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS MORNG...DUE TO SSW
FLO CAUSING SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS. THAT LO PRES AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR THE
REGION...ESPLY FM LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY WED MORNG. A BRIEF
REDUCTION TO CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS
OR STRONGER STORMS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR LATER
WED THRU THU...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA THEN OFF THE NRN MID
ATLC CST.

&&

.MARINE...
A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY DROPPING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WIND SHIFT IS VERY LOCALIZED AT THIS TIME...WITH SW
FLOW RECOVERING N OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO PA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
19/12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE INTO W-CENTRAL NC WHILE THE 19/12Z NAM
LAGS THE LOW BACK OVER TN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 19/12Z ECMWF HAS
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS NC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING
VERIFIES THE WIND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT TO NNE FROM N-S LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NNE/NE THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
COAST. SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SCA FLAGS AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THE EARLIEST COMMENCEMENT
OF SCA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LATE 3RD PERIOD INTO 4TH PERIOD.
THE HIGH SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM NE-S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180157
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WILL MAINTAIN ISO-SCT SHWRS ERLY TNGT WITH DECENT LO-LVL MOISTURE
ALBEIT WEAK FORCING. MOST PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FA TNGT
WHERE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGHER. OTW...EXPECT PRTLY CLDY SKIES
ON AVG WITH SOME DRYING IN MID LVLS. MILD TEMPS WITH LGT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER ERN CANADA TONIGHT/TUES
MORNING...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA) WILL DIVE DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LOCATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUES AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE TN
VALLEY...LIFTING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY. THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW (H85
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT) AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION (ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE NC) TUES-WEDS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES (NEARLY +2 STD DEV) BY TUES
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC LOW WILL
PROGRESS EWD TUESDAY...REACHING NRN NC LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT (THANKS TO RRQ OF
DEPARTING 100+ KT UPPER JET) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TUES MORNING...AND SPREADING EWD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN VA/SERN VA/NE NC. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...SO ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DEEP LIFT WILL RESULT IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW CROSSES NRN NC TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT OFF THE VA COAST AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE OH
VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AROUND THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER SRN VA TUES
NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THAT REGION.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING...SETTLING
OVER THE CAROLINAS WED. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER SRN
VA/NRN NC THROUGH EARLY WEDS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL USHER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/SFC FRONT...SHUNTING THE
BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY WEDS NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST. DRY THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION AND MOISTURE SOURCE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY (LOW/MID 80S) WILL COOL TO NEARLY
-1 STD DEV WED AND THURS (LOW 80S). LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 50S SOME LOCALES BY THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDS EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DYING...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE THAT TERMINALS MAY BE AFFECTED. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEAR ORF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BEFORE FOG BURNS OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU THE MORNING
PERIOD BEFORE BREAKING BY MID DAY.

CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED ON TUE AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...A BRIEF REDUCTION TO CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES.

&&

.MARINE...
A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY DROPPING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WIND SHIFT IS VERY LOCALIZED AT THIS TIME...WITH SW
FLOW RECOVERING N OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO PA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
19/12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE INTO W-CENTRAL NC WHILE THE 19/12Z NAM
LAGS THE LOW BACK OVER TN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 19/12Z ECMWF HAS
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS NC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING
VERIFIES THE WIND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT TO NNE FROM N-S LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NNE/NE THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
COAST. SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SCA FLAGS AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THE EARLIEST COMMENCEMENT
OF SCA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LATE 3RD PERIOD INTO 4TH PERIOD.
THE HIGH SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM NE-S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...AJZ


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180156
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
956 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WILL MAINTAIN ISO-SCT SHWRS ERLY TNGT WITH DECENT LO-LVL MOISTURE
ALBEIT WEAK FORCING. MOST PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FA TNGT
WHERE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGHER. OTW...EXPECT PRTLY CLDY SKIES
ON AVG WITH SOME DRYING IN MID LVLS. MILD TEMPS WITH LGT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER ERN CANADA TONIGHT/TUES
MORNING...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA) WILL DIVE DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LOCATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUES AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE TN
VALLEY...LIFTING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY. THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW (H85
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT) AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION (ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE NC) TUES-WEDS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES (NEARLY +2 STD DEV) BY TUES
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC LOW WILL
PROGRESS EWD TUESDAY...REACHING NRN NC LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT (THANKS TO RRQ OF
DEPARTING 100+ KT UPPER JET) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TUES MORNING...AND SPREADING EWD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN VA/SERN VA/NE NC. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...SO ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DEEP LIFT WILL RESULT IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW CROSSES NRN NC TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT OFF THE VA COAST AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE OH
VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AROUND THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER SRN VA TUES
NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THAT REGION.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING...SETTLING
OVER THE CAROLINAS WED. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER SRN
VA/NRN NC THROUGH EARLY WEDS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL USHER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/SFC FRONT...SHUNTING THE
BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY WEDS NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST. DRY THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION AND MOISTURE SOURCE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY (LOW/MID 80S) WILL COOL TO NEARLY
-1 STD DEV WED AND THURS (LOW 80S). LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 50S SOME LOCALES BY THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDS EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DYING...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE THAT TERMINALS MAY BE AFFECTED. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEAR ORF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BEFORE FOG BURNS OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU THE MORNING
PERIOD BEFORE BREAKING BY MID DAY.

CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED ON TUE AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...A BRIEF REDUCTION TO CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES.

&&

.MARINE...
A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY DROPPING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WIND SHIFT IS VERY LOCALIZED AT THIS TIME...WITH SW
FLOW RECOVERING N OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO PA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
19/12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE INTO W-CENTRAL NC WHILE THE 19/12Z NAM
LAGS THE LOW BACK OVER TN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 19/12Z ECMWF HAS
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS NC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING
VERIFIES THE WIND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT TO NNE FROM N-S LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NNE/NE THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
COAST. SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SCA FLAGS AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THE EARLIEST COMMENCEMENT
OF SCA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LATE 3RD PERIOD INTO 4TH PERIOD.
THE HIGH SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM NE-S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...AJZ


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180136
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
936 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE FLOW REGIME...WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SHORTWAVE OBSERVED ON WATER
VAPOR CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN VA. SHORTWAVE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
(BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATERS ~1.8 INCHES)...AS WELL AS LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
NOTABLE IS CURRENTLY OVER SERN VA/NE NC. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WINDS UP TO 45 MPH (THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES)
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. HRRR HANDLES THIS AREA OF PRECIP
WELL...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE BY 6PM EDT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER WRN VA AND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS NW AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER ERN CANADA TONIGHT/TUES
MORNING...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA) WILL DIVE DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LOCATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUES AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE TN
VALLEY...LIFTING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY. THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW (H85
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT) AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION (ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE NC) TUES-WEDS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES (NEARLY +2 STD DEV) BY TUES
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC LOW WILL
PROGRESS EWD TUESDAY...REACHING NRN NC LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT (THANKS TO RRQ OF
DEPARTING 100+ KT UPPER JET) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TUES MORNING...AND SPREADING EWD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN VA/SERN VA/NE NC. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...SO ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DEEP LIFT WILL RESULT IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW CROSSES NRN NC TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT OFF THE VA COAST AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE OH
VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AROUND THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER SRN VA TUES
NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THAT REGION.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING...SETTLING
OVER THE CAROLINAS WED. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER SRN
VA/NRN NC THROUGH EARLY WEDS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL USHER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/SFC FRONT...SHUNTING THE
BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY WEDS NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST. DRY THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION AND MOISTURE SOURCE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY (LOW/MID 80S) WILL COOL TO NEARLY
-1 STD DEV WED AND THURS (LOW 80S). LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 50S SOME LOCALES BY THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDS EARLY TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DYING...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE THAT TERMINALS MAY BE AFFECTED. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEAR ORF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG AND STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BEFORE FOG BURNS OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CLOUDS MAY LINGER THRU THE MORNING
PERIOD BEFORE BREAKING BY MID DAY.

CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED ON TUE AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...A BRIEF REDUCTION TO CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES.

&&

.MARINE...
A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY DROPPING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WIND SHIFT IS VERY LOCALIZED AT THIS TIME...WITH SW
FLOW RECOVERING N OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO PA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
19/12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE INTO W-CENTRAL NC WHILE THE 19/12Z NAM
LAGS THE LOW BACK OVER TN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 19/12Z ECMWF HAS
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS NC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING
VERIFIES THE WIND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT TO NNE FROM N-S LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NNE/NE THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
COAST. SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SCA FLAGS AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THE EARLIEST COMMENCEMENT
OF SCA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LATE 3RD PERIOD INTO 4TH PERIOD.
THE HIGH SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM NE-S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD/JEF
MARINE...AJZ


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 172000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE FLOW REGIME...WITH THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SHORTWAVE OBSERVED ON WATER
VAPOR CURRENTLY CROSSING ERN VA. SHORTWAVE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
(BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATERS ~1.8 INCHES)...AS WELL AS LEE SIDE
TROUGHING...HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
NOTABLE IS CURRENTLY OVER SERN VA/NE NC. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WINDS UP TO 45 MPH (THANKS TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES)
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. HRRR HANDLES THIS AREA OF PRECIP
WELL...PUSHING IT OFFSHORE BY 6PM EDT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER WRN VA AND THE ERN VA PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS NW AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER ERN CANADA TONIGHT/TUES
MORNING...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA) WILL DIVE DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LOCATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUES AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE TN
VALLEY...LIFTING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY. THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW (H85
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT) AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION (ESPECIALLY SE VA/NE NC) TUES-WEDS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES (NEARLY +2 STD DEV) BY TUES
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SFC LOW WILL
PROGRESS EWD TUESDAY...REACHING NRN NC LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT (THANKS TO RRQ OF
DEPARTING 100+ KT UPPER JET) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO LIFT INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TUES MORNING...AND SPREADING EWD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WILL MAINTAIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN VA/SERN VA/NE NC. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...SO ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DEEP LIFT WILL RESULT IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW CROSSES NRN NC TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT OFF THE VA COAST AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE OH
VALLEY. HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AROUND THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER SRN VA TUES
NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THAT REGION.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING...SETTLING
OVER THE CAROLINAS WED. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER SRN
VA/NRN NC THROUGH EARLY WEDS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL USHER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/SFC FRONT...SHUNTING THE
BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY WEDS NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH REMAINS
ALONG THE COAST. DRY THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION AND MOISTURE SOURCE PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY (LOW/MID 80S) WILL COOL TO NEARLY
-1 STD DEV WED AND THURS (LOW 80S). LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
60S...POSSIBLY UPPER 50S SOME LOCALES BY THURS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH
HIGHS RISING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD FROM 60-65
EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG
A WEAK TROUGH THIS AFTN FROM GENERALLY KSBY TO KRIC TO KRAH...AND
WILL MOVE EAST OF THIS LINE INTO MID-EVENING. CIGS AND VIS MAY LOWER
BRIEFLY INTO MVFR/IFR RANGES UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER 18/0000Z DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TWD DAYBREAK AT KRIC/KSBY/KPHF/KECG...
AND THEN DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 18/1200-1300Z.

CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED ON TUE AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...A BRIEF REDUCTION TO CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES.

&&

.MARINE...
A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY DROPPING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY WIND SHIFT IS VERY LOCALIZED AT THIS TIME...WITH SW
FLOW RECOVERING N OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO PA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ENE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE
19/12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE INTO W-CENTRAL NC WHILE THE 19/12Z NAM
LAGS THE LOW BACK OVER TN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 19/12Z ECMWF HAS
COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS NC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS TIMING
VERIFIES THE WIND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT TO NNE FROM N-S LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NNE/NE THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE
COAST. SCA WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BAY/SOUND/RIVERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SCA FLAGS AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THE EARLIEST COMMENCEMENT
OF SCA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE LATE 3RD PERIOD INTO 4TH PERIOD.
THE HIGH SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM NE-S AND REMAINING AOB 15KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...AJZ


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171728
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
128 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE CTRL AND ERN CONUS THIS MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
TRAVERSE THE FLOW REGIME TODAY...WITH THE FIRST SUCH MAXIMA AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...WEAK LEE
SIDE SFC TROUGH AND PRECIP WATERS INCREASING UPWARDS OF 1.8 INCHES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THETA-E ADVECTION WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (0-6KM
MUCAPE ~1200-1500 J/KG) OVER THE LOCAL AREA. BIGGEST LIMITATIONS
TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CLOUD COVER AND A LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
ALSO...LIMITED CAPE IN MIXED PHASE LAYER WILL ALSO LIMIT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...NEARLY 150% OF NORMAL PRECIP WATERS AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WILL ALSO
LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. LATEST PRECIP GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL...SO HAVE EXPANDED HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER SE
VA/NE NC...WITH BEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH AND EAST TO RICHMOND. WLY
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING...STABILIZING THE ERN AND NWRN ZONES. HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER THAT
REGION. VORT MAX LIFTING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE LOW
END CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED BY COVERAGE...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH.

SEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH INFLUENCE
OF APPROACHING S/W WILL CARRY HIGH END CHC POPS TO HIGHLIGHT GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. THREAT FOR SVR WX ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK AS GOOD A PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GIVEN HIGH PWAT`S AROUND
1.75" COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TUES IN THE 80S.

SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A DECENT CHC OF
PCPN GOING INTO WED. WINDS TURN N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED AND
ATMOS STABILIZES A BIT MORE FOR DECREASED THREAT OF TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED AS WELL. LOWS TUES NIGHT IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WED IN LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG
A WEAK TROUGH THIS AFTN FROM GENERALLY KSBY TO KRIC TO KRAH...AND
WILL MOVE EAST OF THIS LINE INTO MID-EVENING. CIGS AND VIS MAY LOWER
BRIEFLY INTO MVFR/IFR RANGES UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER 18/0000Z DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NE NC AND FAR SE VA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FOG
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TWD DAYBREAK AT KRIC/KSBY/KPHF/KECG...
AND THEN DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 18/1200-1300Z.

CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED ON TUE AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...A BRIEF REDUCTION TO CIGS/VIS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER STRONGER STORM CORES.

&&

.MARINE...
DECIDED TO RAISE SHORT PD SCA (UNTIL 13Z/17) FOR LWR JAMES
RIVER/SRN BAY DUE TO CONTD SW WNDS AVGG 15 TO 20 KT.

WKNG SFC FNTL BNDRY/TROUGH DRIFTS OVR THE WTRS ERY TDA...THEN
DISSIPATES. CONTD MSTLY SW INTO TNGT AS HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE
CONUS CST...SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT (AFT ERY TDA). WK SFC LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE W TUE...THEN TRACKS THROUGH THE WTRS LT TUE NGT
INTO WED. MDLS A LTL MORE IN LINE W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO NNE ON
WED...THOUGH THERE RMN NOTABLE SPD DIFFERENCES (GFS SHOWING MUCH
BETTER PTNTL FOR A SURGE IN SPDS BY WED AFTN INTO WED EVE BEFORE
SUBSIDING). AT THIS POINT...CONTG W/ ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WNDS/WAVES-SEAS MIDWEEK BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. SFC HI PRES FM THE N
XPCD TO SLOLY DRIFT OFF THE SRN NEW ENG CST BY LT THU INTO
FRI...RESULTING IN CONTD ONSHR WNDS (ENE). NO SCAS PLANNED FM THIS
AFTN INTO WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171451
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THIS MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
TRAVERSE THE FLOW REGIME TODAY...WITH THE FIRST SUCH MAXIMA AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. AS
WEAK VORT MAXIMA PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...WEAK LEE
SIDE SFC TROUGH AND PRECIP WATERS INCREASING UPWARDS OF 1.8 INCHES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THETA-E ADVECTION WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (0-6KM
MUCAPE ~1200-1500 J/KG) OVER THE LOCAL AREA. BIGGEST LIMITATIONS
TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CLOUD COVER AND A LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
ALSO...LIMITED CAPE IN MIXED PHASE LAYER WILL ALSO LIMIT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...NEARLY 150% OF NORMAL PRECIP WATERS AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KT WILL ALSO
LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. LATEST PRECIP GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL...SO HAVE EXPANDED HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER SE
VA/NE NC...WITH BEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH AND EAST TO RICHMOND. WLY
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING...STABILIZING THE ERN AND NWRN ZONES. HAVE OPTED TO
DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER THAT
REGION. VORT MAX LIFTING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE LOW
END CHANCE POPS OVER EXTREME SE VA/NE NC TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED BY COVERAGE...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH.

SEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH INFLUENCE
OF APPROACHING S/W WILL CARRY HIGH END CHC POPS TO HIGHLIGHT GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. THREAT FOR SVR WX ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK AS GOOD A PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GIVEN HIGH PWAT`S AROUND
1.75" COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TUES IN THE 80S.

SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A DECENT CHC OF
PCPN GOING INTO WED. WINDS TURN N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED AND
ATMOS STABILIZES A BIT MORE FOR DECREASED THREAT OF TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED AS WELL. LOWS TUES NIGHT IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WED IN LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKING SURFACE TROUGH CONTS TO SETTLE OVER THE RGN. BAND OF
RA W/ ISOLD T MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. AXIS OF
MOISTURE SLOLY SINKING TO THE SE...XPCG AT LEAST A SHORT PD OF RA
AT KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS MRNG. OTRW...CIGS MNLY AOA 3-5KFT INTO THE
MID/LT MRNG HRS. CONTD SW FLO THROUGH REST OF THE DAY...LO PROB
FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSRAS THIS AFTN/EVE. WK LO PRES APPROACHES FM
THE W TUE...RESULTING IN INCRSG RA CHCS AND PROB FOR SHORT PDS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS (INTO WED).

&&

.MARINE...
DECIDED TO RAISE SHORT PD SCA (UNTIL 13Z/17) FOR LWR JAMES
RIVER/SRN BAY DUE TO CONTD SW WNDS AVGG 15 TO 20 KT.

WKNG SFC FNTL BNDRY/TROUGH DRIFTS OVR THE WTRS ERY TDA...THEN
DISSIPATES. CONTD MSTLY SW INTO TNGT AS HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE
CONUS CST...SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT (AFT ERY TDA). WK SFC LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE W TUE...THEN TRACKS THROUGH THE WTRS LT TUE NGT
INTO WED. MDLS A LTL MORE IN LINE W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO NNE ON
WED...THOUGH THERE RMN NOTABLE SPD DIFFERENCES (GFS SHOWING MUCH
BETTER PTNTL FOR A SURGE IN SPDS BY WED AFTN INTO WED EVE BEFORE
SUBSIDING). AT THIS POINT...CONTG W/ ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WNDS/WAVES-SEAS MIDWEEK BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. SFC HI PRES FM THE N
XPCD TO SLOLY DRIFT OFF THE SRN NEW ENG CST BY LT THU INTO
FRI...RESULTING IN CONTD ONSHR WNDS (ENE). NO SCAS PLANNED FM THIS
AFTN INTO WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATCHING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WHICH CONTINUES TO INITIATE SHOWERS THROUGH CENTRAL VA AND THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS IN THIS CORRIDOR
THRU 14Z AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY FLUCTUATIONS
NORTH OR SOUTH IN THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT
CHC POPS OR LOW END CHC (20-30%) ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL VA AND
INTERIOR NE NC...AS PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THESE AREAS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A LINGERING LEE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS. A LITTLE
SUBSIDENCE IS SHOWN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT SO WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DURING THIS TIME. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR ARRIVING. SEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH INFLUENCE
OF APPROACHING S/W WILL CARRY HIGH END CHC POPS TO HIGHLIGHT GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. THREAT FOR SVR WX ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK AS GOOD A PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GIVEN HIGH PWAT`S AROUND
1.75" COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TUES IN THE 80S.

SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A DECENT CHC OF
PCPN GOING INTO WED. WINDS TURN N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED AND
ATMOS STABILIZES A BIT MORE FOR DECREASED THREAT OF TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED AS WELL. LOWS TUES NIGHT IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WED IN LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKING SURFACE TROUGH CONTS TO SETTLE OVER THE RGN. BAND OF
RA W/ ISOLD T MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. AXIS OF
MOISTURE SLOLY SINKING TO THE SE...XPCG AT LEAST A SHORT PD OF RA
AT KORF/KPHF/KECG THIS MRNG. OTRW...CIGS MNLY AOA 3-5KFT INTO THE
MID/LT MRNG HRS. CONTD SW FLO THROUGH REST OF THE DAY...LO PROB
FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSRAS THIS AFTN/EVE. WK LO PRES APPROACHES FM
THE W TUE...RESULTING IN INCRSG RA CHCS AND PROB FOR SHORT PDS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS (INTO WED).

&&

.MARINE...
DECIDED TO RAISE SHORT PD SCA (UNTIL 13Z/17) FOR LWR JAMES
RIVER/SRN BAY DUE TO CONTD SW WNDS AVGG 15 TO 20 KT.

WKNG SFC FNTL BNDRY/TROUGH DRIFTS OVR THE WTRS ERY TDA...THEN
DISSIPATES. CONTD MSTLY SW INTO TNGT AS HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE
CONUS CST...SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT (AFT ERY TDA). WK SFC LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE W TUE...THEN TRACKS THROUGH THE WTRS LT TUE NGT
INTO WED. MDLS A LTL MORE IN LINE W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO NNE ON
WED...THOUGH THERE RMN NOTABLE SPD DIFFERENCES (GFS SHOWING MUCH
BETTER PTNTL FOR A SURGE IN SPDS BY WED AFTN INTO WED EVE BEFORE
SUBSIDING). AT THIS POINT...CONTG W/ ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WNDS/WAVES-SEAS MIDWEEK BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. SFC HI PRES FM THE N
XPCD TO SLOLY DRIFT OFF THE SRN NEW ENG CST BY LT THU INTO
FRI...RESULTING IN CONTD ONSHR WNDS (ENE). NO SCAS PLANNED FM THIS
AFTN INTO WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
650 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATCHING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WHICH CONTINUES TO INITIATE SHOWERS THROUGH CENTRAL VA AND THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS IN THIS CORRIDOR
THRU 14Z AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY FLUCTUATIONS
NORTH OR SOUTH IN THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT
CHC POPS OR LOW END CHC (20-30%) ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL VA AND
INTERIOR NE NC...AS PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THESE AREAS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTN. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A LINGERING LEE
TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS. A LITTLE
SUBSIDENCE IS SHOWN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT SO WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DURING THIS TIME. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR ARRIVING. SEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH INFLUENCE
OF APPROACHING S/W WILL CARRY HIGH END CHC POPS TO HIGHLIGHT GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. THREAT FOR SVR WX ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK AS GOOD A PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GIVEN HIGH PWAT`S AROUND
1.75" COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TUES IN THE 80S.

SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A DECENT CHC OF
PCPN GOING INTO WED. WINDS TURN N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED AND
ATMOS STABILIZES A BIT MORE FOR DECREASED THREAT OF TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED AS WELL. LOWS TUES NIGHT IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WED IN LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKING CDFNT CONTS TO SETTLE OVER THE RGN. BAND OF WEAKENING
CNVTN...NOW JUST MNLY -RA...MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. LINGERING SHRAS INVOF KRIC/KSBY NEXT FEW HRS. W/ AXIS OF
MOISTURE SLOLY SINKING TO THE SE...THE OTR 3 TERMINALS
(KORF/KPHF/KECG) XPCD TO SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PD OF -SHRA CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. OTRW...CIGS MNLY AOA 3-5KFT INTO THE MID/LT MRNG HRS.
CONTD SW FLO THROUGH REST OF THE DAY...LO PROB FOR ISOLD/SCT
SHRAS/TSRAS THIS AFTN/EVE. WK LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W
TUE...RESULTING IN INCRSG RA CHCS AND PROB FOR SHORT PDS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS (INTO WED).

&&

.MARINE...
DECIDED TO RAISE SHORT PD SCA (UNTIL 13Z/17) FOR LWR JAMES
RIVER/SRN BAY DUE TO CONTD SW WNDS AVGG 15 TO 20 KT.

WKNG SFC FNTL BNDRY/TROUGH DRIFTS OVR THE WTRS ERY TDA...THEN
DISSIPATES. CONTD MSTLY SW INTO TNGT AS HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE
CONUS CST...SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT (AFT ERY TDA). WK SFC LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE W TUE...THEN TRACKS THROUGH THE WTRS LT TUE NGT
INTO WED. MDLS A LTL MORE IN LINE W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO NNE ON
WED...THOUGH THERE RMN NOTABLE SPD DIFFERENCES (GFS SHOWING MUCH
BETTER PTNTL FOR A SURGE IN SPDS BY WED AFTN INTO WED EVE BEFORE
SUBSIDING). AT THIS POINT...CONTG W/ ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WNDS/WAVES-SEAS MIDWEEK BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. SFC HI PRES FM THE N
XPCD TO SLOLY DRIFT OFF THE SRN NEW ENG CST BY LT THU INTO
FRI...RESULTING IN CONTD ONSHR WNDS (ENE). NO SCAS PLANNED FM THIS
AFTN INTO WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170848
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
448 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATCHING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH CONTINUES TO INITIATE SHOWERS THROUGH CENTRAL VA AND
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS IN THIS
CORRIDOR THRU 12Z AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY
FLUCTUATIONS NORTH OR SOUTH IN THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS OR LOW END CHC (20-30%) ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
VA AND NE NC...AS PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THESE AREAS. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY...NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A LINGERING LEE TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS. A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE IS
SHOWN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE LATE TODAY/TONIGHT SO WILL
SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THIS TIME. MAY EVEN
BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARRIVING.
SEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH INFLUENCE
OF APPROACHING S/W WILL CARRY HIGH END CHC POPS TO HIGHLIGHT GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. THREAT FOR SVR WX ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK AS GOOD A PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GIVEN HIGH PWAT`S AROUND
1.75" COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TUES IN THE 80S.

SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A DECENT CHC OF
PCPN GOING INTO WED. WINDS TURN N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED AND
ATMOS STABILIZES A BIT MORE FOR DECREASED THREAT OF TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED AS WELL. LOWS TUES NIGHT IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WED IN LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKING CDFNT CONTS TO SETTLE OVER THE RGN. BAND OF WEAKENING
CNVTN...NOW JUST MNLY -RA...MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. LINGERING SHRAS INVOF KRIC/KSBY NEXT FEW HRS. W/ AXIS OF
MOISTURE SLOLY SINKING TO THE SE...THE OTR 3 TERMINALS
(KORF/KPHF/KECG) XPCD TO SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PD OF -SHRA CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. OTRW...CIGS MNLY AOA 3-5KFT INTO THE MID/LT MRNG HRS.
CONTD SW FLO THROUGH REST OF THE DAY...LO PROB FOR ISOLD/SCT
SHRAS/TSRAS THIS AFTN/EVE. WK LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W
TUE...RESULTING IN INCRSG RA CHCS AND PROB FOR SHORT PDS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS (INTO WED).

&&

.MARINE...
DECIDED TO RAISE SHORT PD SCA (UNTIL 13Z/17) FOR LWR JAMES
RIVER/SRN BAY DUE TO CONTD SW WNDS AVGG 15 TO 20 KT.

WKNG SFC FNTL BNDRY/TROUGH DRIFTS OVR THE WTRS ERY TDA...THEN
DISSIPATES. CONTD MSTLY SW INTO TNGT AS HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE
CONUS CST...SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT (AFT ERY TDA). WK SFC LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE W TUE...THEN TRACKS THROUGH THE WTRS LT TUE NGT
INTO WED. MDLS A LTL MORE IN LINE W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO NNE ON
WED...THOUGH THERE RMN NOTABLE SPD DIFFERENCES (GFS SHOWING MUCH
BETTER PTNTL FOR A SURGE IN SPDS BY WED AFTN INTO WED EVE BEFORE
SUBSIDING). AT THIS POINT...CONTG W/ ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
WNDS/WAVES-SEAS MIDWEEK BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. SFC HI PRES FM THE N
XPCD TO SLOLY DRIFT OFF THE SRN NEW ENG CST BY LT THU INTO
FRI...RESULTING IN CONTD ONSHR WNDS (ENE). NO SCAS PLANNED FM THIS
AFTN INTO WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
     634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170753
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
353 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATCHING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH CONTINUES TO INITIATE SHOWERS THROUGH CENTRAL VA AND
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS IN THIS
CORRIDOR THRU 12Z AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY
FLUCTUATIONS NORTH OR SOUTH IN THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS OR LOW END CHC (20-30%) ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
VA AND NE NC...AS PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THESE AREAS. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY...NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A LINGERING LEE TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS. A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE IS
SHOWN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE LATE TODAY/TONIGHT SO WILL
SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THIS TIME. MAY EVEN
BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARRIVING.
SEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WITH INFLUENCE
OF APPROACHING S/W WILL CARRY HIGH END CHC POPS TO HIGHLIGHT GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN. THREAT FOR SVR WX ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK AS GOOD A PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GIVEN HIGH PWAT`S AROUND
1.75" COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TUES IN THE 80S.

SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...S/W MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP A DECENT CHC OF
PCPN GOING INTO WED. WINDS TURN N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED AND
ATMOS STABILIZES A BIT MORE FOR DECREASED THREAT OF TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED AS WELL. LOWS TUES NIGHT IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WED IN LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKING CDFNT CONTS TO SETTLE OVER THE RGN. BAND OF WEAKENING
CNVTN...NOW JUST MNLY -RA...MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. LINGERING SHRAS INVOF KRIC/KSBY NEXT FEW HRS. W/ AXIS OF
MOISTURE SLOLY SINKING TO THE SE...THE OTR 3 TERMINALS
(KORF/KPHF/KECG) XPCD TO SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PD OF -SHRA CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. OTRW...CIGS MNLY AOA 3-5KFT INTO THE MID/LT MRNG HRS.
CONTD SW FLO THROUGH REST OF THE DAY...LO PROB FOR ISOLD/SCT
SHRAS/TSRAS THIS AFTN/EVE. WK LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W
TUE...RESULTING IN INCRSG RA CHCS AND PROB FOR SHORT PDS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS (INTO WED).

&&

.MARINE...
WKNG SFC FNTL BNDRY/TROUGH DRIFTS OVR THE WTRS ERY TDA...THEN
DISSIPATES. CONTD MSTLY SW INTO TNGT AS HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE
CONUS CST...SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. WK SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE
W TUE...THEN TRACKS THROUGH THE WTRS LT TUE NGT INTO WED. MDLS A
LTL MORE IN LINE W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO NNE ON WED...THOUGH THERE RMN
NOTABLE SPD DIFFERENCES (GFS SHOWING MUCH BETTER PTNTL FOR A SURGE
IN SPDS BY WED AFTN INTO WED EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING). AT THIS
POINT...CONTG W/ ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WNDS/WAVES-SEAS MIDWEEK
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. SFC HI PRES FM THE N XPCD TO SLOLY DRIFT OFF
THE SRN NEW ENG CST BY LT THU INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTD ONSHR
WNDS (ENE). NO SCAS PLANNED INTO WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170708
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
308 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY MOVG ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE DVLPD ON SOME
MSTR / WND BNDRY CONVERGENCE AND AVBL INSTAB. MSAS SHOWING SFC TROF
IN LEE OF MTS. PCPN ACROSS WRN VA SLOWLY MOVG EAST WITH SHORT RANGE
MODELS PROGGING THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST NXT SVRL HRS. NOT MUCH
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS LATE THIS EVE.
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT NRN HALF OF FA...HIGHEST NXT FEW HRS ACROSS
LWR MD ERN SHORE. OTW...A M CLDY AND WRM NITE WITH CHC POPS MOST
AREAS. LOWS U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO ~1.75" TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. COULD ALSO
SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL HINGE ON JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH (BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES). HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE
80S. LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKING CDFNT CONTS TO SETTLE OVER THE RGN. BAND OF WEAKENING
CNVTN...NOW JUST MNLY -RA...MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. LINGERING SHRAS INVOF KRIC/KSBY NEXT FEW HRS. W/ AXIS OF
MOISTURE SLOLY SINKING TO THE SE...THE OTR 3 TERMINALS
(KORF/KPHF/KECG) XPCD TO SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PD OF -SHRA CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. OTRW...CIGS MNLY AOA 3-5KFT INTO THE MID/LT MRNG HRS.
CONTD SW FLO THROUGH REST OF THE DAY...LO PROB FOR ISOLD/SCT
SHRAS/TSRAS THIS AFTN/EVE. WK LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W
TUE...RESULTING IN INCRSG RA CHCS AND PROB FOR SHORT PDS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS (INTO WED).

&&

.MARINE...
WKNG SFC FNTL BNDRY/TROUGH DRIFTS OVR THE WTRS ERY TDA...THEN
DISSIPATES. CONTD MSTLY SW INTO TNGT AS HI PRES RMNS OFF THE SE
CONUS CST...SPDS AVGG AOB 15 KT. WK SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE
W TUE...THEN TRACKS THROUGH THE WTRS LT TUE NGT INTO WED. MDLS A
LTL MORE IN LINE W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO NNE ON WED...THOUGH THERE RMN
NOTABLE SPD DIFFERENCES (GFS SHOWING MUCH BETTER PTNTL FOR A SURGE
IN SPDS BY WED AFTN INTO WED EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING). AT THIS
POINT...CONTG W/ ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WNDS/WAVES-SEAS MIDWEEK
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY. SFC HI PRES FM THE N XPCD TO SLOLY DRIFT OFF
THE SRN NEW ENG CST BY LT THU INTO FRI...RESULTING IN CONTD ONSHR
WNDS (ENE). NO SCAS PLANNED INTO WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP/JEF
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170535
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
135 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY MOVG ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE DVLPD ON SOME
MSTR / WND BNDRY CONVERGENCE AND AVBL INSTAB. MSAS SHOWING SFC TROF
IN LEE OF MTS. PCPN ACROSS WRN VA SLOWLY MOVG EAST WITH SHORT RANGE
MODELS PROGGING THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST NXT SVRL HRS. NOT MUCH
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS LATE THIS EVE.
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT NRN HALF OF FA...HIGHEST NXT FEW HRS ACROSS
LWR MD ERN SHORE. OTW...A M CLDY AND WRM NITE WITH CHC POPS MOST
AREAS. LOWS U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO ~1.75" TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. COULD ALSO
SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL HINGE ON JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH (BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES). HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE
80S. LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAKING CDFNT CONTS TO SETTLE OVER THE RGN. BAND OF WEAKENING
CNVTN...NOW JUST MNLY -RA...MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. LINGERING SHRAS INVOF KRIC/KSBY NEXT FEW HRS. W/ AXIS OF
MOISTURE SLOLY SINKING TO THE SE...THE OTR 3 TERMINALS
(KORF/KPHF/KECG) XPCD TO SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PD OF -SHRA CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. OTRW...CIGS MNLY AOA 3-5KFT INTO THE MID/LT MRNG HRS.
CONTD SW FLO THROUGH REST OF THE DAY...LO PROB FOR ISOLD/SCT
SHRAS/TSRAS THIS AFTN/EVE. WK LO PRES APPROACHES FM THE W
TUE...RESULTING IN INCRSG RA CHCS AND PROB FOR SHORT PDS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS (INTO WED).

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE NE STATES AND SE CANADA. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE SFC LOW SWWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
WATERS. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
15 KTS IN THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
MAYBE A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY...BUT STABLE
CONDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD INHIBIT SCA CONDS FROM BEING MET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND CAP WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT IN
THE COASTAL ZONES. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW TONIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION
BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SEAS MAY  APPROACH
5 FT 20 NM OUT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT WILL ALSO RELAX
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY
AND 15 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GENERALLY
AOB 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON INTO
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS DURING THE DAY TUES. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AOB 15 KT AS STRONGEST WINDS/TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME NLY AOB 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP/JEF
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...SAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170150
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
950 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF TSTRMS CRNTLY MOVG ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE DVLPD ON SOME
MSTR / WND BNDRY CONVERGENCE AND AVBL INSTAB. MSAS SHOWING SFC TROF
IN LEE OF MTS. PCPN ACROSS WRN VA SLOWLY MOVG EAST WITH SHORT RANGE
MODELS PROGGING THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST NXT SVRL HRS. NOT MUCH
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS LATE THIS EVE.
BUMPED UP POPS A BIT NRN HALF OF FA...HIGHEST NXT FEW HRS ACROSS
LWR MD ERN SHORE. OTW...A M CLDY AND WRM NITE WITH CHC POPS MOST
AREAS. LOWS U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO ~1.75" TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. COULD ALSO
SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL HINGE ON JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH (BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES). HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE
80S. LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK CDFNT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FM THE NW RESULTING IN INCRSG
CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FAR BACK INTO SW VA
AND WVA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH CIGS 3500+ AND VIS
GENERALLY 5 MI OR BETTER. HOWEVER AN OCNL MVFR COND PSBL IF PTCHY
MODERATE RAIN FALLS OVER TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...CONTD SW FLO MON/TUE WITH PROB FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...THEN INCRSG CHCS ON TUE AS WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRES TRACKS ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE NE STATES AND SE CANADA. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE SFC LOW SWWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
WATERS. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
15 KTS IN THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
MAYBE A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY...BUT STABLE
CONDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD INHIBIT SCA CONDS FROM BEING MET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND CAP WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT IN
THE COASTAL ZONES. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW TONIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION
BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SEAS MAY  APPROACH
5 FT 20 NM OUT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT WILL ALSO RELAX
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY
AND 15 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GENERALLY
AOB 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON INTO
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS DURING THE DAY TUES. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AOB 15 KT AS STRONGEST WINDS/TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME NLY AOB 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP/JEF
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170127
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
927 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CONVECTION NOTED ATTM. SOME CELLS TRYING TO DVLP JUST N
AND W OF FA SO WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS GOING FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL WANT TO DVLP SCT SHWRS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER ON AS WEAK S/W TRACKS E (HIGHEST POPS NRN HALF).

PVS DSCN:
A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STALLS ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE LATE TONIGHT AND WITH WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING
IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CONTINUED SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO ~1.75" TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. COULD ALSO
SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL HINGE ON JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH (BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES). HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE
80S. LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK CDFNT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FM THE NW RESULTING IN INCRSG
CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FAR BACK INTO SW VA
AND WVA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH CIGS 3500+ AND VIS
GENERALLY 5 MI OR BETTER. HOWEVER AN OCNL MVFR COND PSBL IF PTCHY
MODERATE RAIN FALLS OVER TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...CONTD SW FLO MON/TUE WITH PROB FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...THEN INCRSG CHCS ON TUE AS WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRES TRACKS ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE NE STATES AND SE CANADA. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE SFC LOW SWWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
WATERS. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
15 KTS IN THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
MAYBE A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY...BUT STABLE
CONDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD INHIBIT SCA CONDS FROM BEING MET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND CAP WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT IN
THE COASTAL ZONES. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW TONIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION
BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SEAS MAY  APPROACH
5 FT 20 NM OUT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT WILL ALSO RELAX
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY
AND 15 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GENERALLY
AOB 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON INTO
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS DURING THE DAY TUES. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AOB 15 KT AS STRONGEST WINDS/TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME NLY AOB 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...MPR/DAP
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP/JEF
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...SAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162303
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
703 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CONVECTION NOTED ATTM. SOME CELLS TRYING TO DVLP JUST N
AND W OF FA SO WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS GOING FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL WANT TO DVLP SCT SHWRS ACROSS
THE AREA LATER ON AS WEAK S/W TRACKS E (HIGHEST POPS NRN HALF).

PVS DSCN:
A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STALLS ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE LATE TONIGHT AND WITH WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING
IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CONTINUED SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO ~1.75" TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. COULD ALSO
SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL HINGE ON JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH (BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES). HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE
80S. LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. WL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS OUT OF THE SW TO 20-25 KT THROUGH 22-23 Z OR SO UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING WANES. WEAKENING CDFNT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FM THE
NW LT TDA RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS (THOUGH CIGS RMNG AOA
5KFT)...THEN SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE FA THIS EVE INTO TNGT. EXPECT
SCT SHRAS/ISO TSRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF KRIC-KSBY
LINE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TERMINALS AFTER 21Z/5PM. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS DON`T INSPIRE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE ATTM W/EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 23Z/16 AND 04Z/17 AT KRIC/KSBY.
CONSEQUENTLY, CONSIDERING LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE HV
GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER WORDING FOR RIGHT NOW IN LIEU OF TEMPO.

OUTLOOK...CONTD SW FLO MON/TUE WITH LOW PROB FOR (MAINLY)
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...THEN INCRSG CHCS ON TUE AS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE NE STATES AND SE CANADA. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE SFC LOW SWWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
WATERS. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
15 KTS IN THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
MAYBE A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY...BUT STABLE
CONDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD INHIBIT SCA CONDS FROM BEING MET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND CAP WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT IN
THE COASTAL ZONES. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW TONIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION
BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SEAS MAY  APPROACH
5 FT 20 NM OUT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT WILL ALSO RELAX
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY
AND 15 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GENERALLY
AOB 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON INTO
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS DURING THE DAY TUES. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AOB 15 KT AS STRONGEST WINDS/TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME NLY AOB 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...MPR/DAP
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...SAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161953
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
353 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SW FLOW HAS BROUGHT WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
A LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRESENT(PW`S ~1.75" AND CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG)
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CWA. HELPING
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS A S/W EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR FA LATE TODAY. HAVE PLACED 30-40% POPS ACROSS N-NW HALF OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20% POPS TO THE S.

A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STALLS ALONG THE MASON-
DIXON LINE LATE TONIGHT AND WITH WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING
IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CONTINUED SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO ~1.75" TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. COULD ALSO
SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL HINGE ON JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH (BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES). HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE
80S. LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT BLOCKY PATTERN...WRN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX AS A STRONG POLAR LOW LOCATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY
THURS-FRI. THE NW UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA
FRI...RESULTING IN A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FLATTER/WEAKER
UPPER RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) OVER THE SRN PLAINS. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BAGGY
TROUGH/WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE
SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THURS...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY...AND REMAINING
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE
E-SE FLOW WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING SAT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS. DRY CONDITIONS (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S
AND PRECIP WATER AOB 1.5 INCHES) EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION SAT AND SUN. OPTED TO INCLUDE CLIMO
POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) SAT AND SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS IN
NWLY FLOW.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE CURRENT EXTENDED RELATES TO DAYTIME TEMPS.
LOWER HEIGHTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND E/SE ONSHORE SFC WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS AND FRI. DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED
TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THURS (~-1 STD DEV) WITH ONLY A FEW
DEGS WARMING FRI (ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INLAND FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S)...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS
COOLER ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. WL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS OUT OF THE SW TO 20-25 KT THROUGH 22-23 Z OR SO UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING WANES. WEAKENING CDFNT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FM THE
NW LT TDA RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS (THOUGH CIGS RMNG AOA
5KFT)...THEN SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE FA THIS EVE INTO TNGT. EXPECT
SCT SHRAS/ISO TSRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF KRIC-KSBY
LINE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TERMINALS AFTER 21Z/5PM. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS DON`T INSPIRE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE ATTM W/EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 23Z/16 AND 04Z/17 AT KRIC/KSBY.
CONSEQUENTLY, CONSIDERING LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE HV
GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER WORDING FOR RIGHT NOW IN LIEU OF TEMPO.

OUTLOOK...CONTD SW FLO MON/TUE WITH LOW PROB FOR (MAINLY)
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...THEN INCRSG CHCS ON TUE AS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE NE STATES AND SE CANADA. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE SFC LOW SWWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...JUST WEST OF THE
WATERS. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
15 KTS IN THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
MAYBE A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY...BUT STABLE
CONDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD INHIBIT SCA CONDS FROM BEING MET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND CAP WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT IN
THE COASTAL ZONES. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW TONIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION
BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SEAS MAY  APPROACH
5 FT 20 NM OUT OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT WILL ALSO RELAX
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY
AND 15 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GENERALLY
AOB 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON INTO
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS DURING THE DAY TUES. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AOB 15 KT AS STRONGEST WINDS/TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME NLY AOB 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ONSHORE E/SE WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...DAP
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...SAM


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161811
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
211 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS STRENGTHENING SW
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT (PW`S ~1.75" AND CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG). MODELS DIFFER
ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK S/W EXPECTED TO REACH OUR FA LATE
TODAY IN DAMPENING W-NW FLOW ALOFT. STILL ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
WARRANT 30-40% POPS ACROSS N-NW HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S MOST PLACES.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY STALLS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE LATE TONIGHT. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO OVER 2" TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
COULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL
HINGE ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH (BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES). HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S (BUT COULD BE COOLER NORTH
DEPENDING ON SPEED OF COLD FRONT.)

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGH IN THE WEST/RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS/TROUGH OVER THE EAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS AS CONFLUENCE ALLOWS
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. REMNANT MOISTURE
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY WEDS...BUT EXPECTED DRY ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...POLAR LOW WILL DIVE SWD OVER THE HUDSON BAY/NRN CANADA
THURS...FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE NW
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EWD PROGRESSION OF A
WEAKER/FLATTER UPPER RIDGE. BAGGY TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD
DEV) BUILDS INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MEAN FRONT LOCATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN VA. HOWEVER...LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY AS DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND PRECIP
WATERS AOB 1.5 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. WL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS OUT OF THE SW TO 20-25 KT THROUGH 22-23 Z OR SO UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING WANES. WEAKENING CDFNT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FM THE
NW LT TDA RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS (THOUGH CIGS RMNG AOA
5KFT)...THEN SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE FA THIS EVE INTO TNGT. EXPECT
SCT SHRAS/ISO TSRAS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF KRIC-KSBY
LINE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TERMINALS AFTER 21Z/5PM. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS DON`T INSPIRE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE ATTM W/EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 23Z/16 AND 04Z/17 AT KRIC/KSBY.
CONSEQUENTLY, CONSIDERING LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE HV
GONE WITH VICINITY THUNDER WORDING FOR RIGHT NOW IN LIEU OF TEMPO.

OUTLOOK...CONTD SW FLO MON/TUE WITH LOW PROB FOR (MAINLY)
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...THEN INCRSG CHCS ON TUE AS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WNDS AVGG (JUST) SHORT OF SCAS THROUGH THIS AFTN. WEAKENING
CDFNT APPROACHES THE WTRS FM THE NW LT TDA...SLOLY PUSHING ACRS
THE WTRS TNGT WHILE DISSIPATING. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT INVOF NRN
OCN WTRS (INTO TNGT). CONTD SW WNDS ERY IN THE UPCOMING WK AS HI
PRES OFF THE SE CONUS CST HOLDS ITS GROUND AND AHD OF NEXT AREA OF
LO PRES TRACKING TWD THE WTRS FM THE W. BY TUE...MDL DIFFERENCES
WRT HANDLING OF SFC LO PRES ENTERING THE RGN FM THE W. 00Z/16 GFS
SHOWING MUCH FASTER ARRIVAL OF/STRONGER NNE WNDS BY LT TUE/TUE NGT
AS LO PRES TRACKS NR/JUST S OF THE WTRS. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WNDS/WAVES-SEAS TUE INTO WED BASED ON UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/MAM
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161228
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
828 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS STRENGTHENING SW
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT (PW`S ~1.75" AND CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG). MODELS DIFFER
ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK S/W EXPECTED TO REACH OUR FA LATE
TODAY IN DAMPENING W-NW FLOW ALOFT. STILL ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
WARRANT 30-40% POPS ACROSS N-NW HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S MOST PLACES.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY STALLS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE LATE TONIGHT. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO OVER 2" TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
COULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL
HINGE ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH (BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES). HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S (BUT COULD BE COOLER NORTH
DEPENDING ON SPEED OF COLD FRONT.)

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGH IN THE WEST/RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS/TROUGH OVER THE EAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS AS CONFLUENCE ALLOWS
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. REMNANT MOISTURE
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY WEDS...BUT EXPECTED DRY ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...POLAR LOW WILL DIVE SWD OVER THE HUDSON BAY/NRN CANADA
THURS...FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE NW
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EWD PROGRESSION OF A
WEAKER/FLATTER UPPER RIDGE. BAGGY TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD
DEV) BUILDS INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MEAN FRONT LOCATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN VA. HOWEVER...LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY AS DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND PRECIP
WATERS AOB 1.5 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS STARTING OFF THE DAY. SW WNDS INCRS THROUGH THE MRNG
HRS...W/ PTNTL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. WEAKENING
CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NW LT TDA RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS
(THOUGH CIGS RMNG AOA 5KFT)...THEN SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE FA THIS
EVE INTO TNGT W/ PSBL ISOLD/WIDELY SCT TSTMS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHORT LIVED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS...HIGHEST PROB AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK...CONTD SW FLO MON/TUE WITH LOW PROB FOR (MAINLY)
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...THEN INCRSG CHCS ON TUE AS
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WNDS AVGG (JUST) SHORT OF SCAS THROUGH THIS AFTN. WEAKENING
CDFNT APPROACHES THE WTRS FM THE NW LT TDA...SLOLY PUSHING ACRS
THE WTRS TNGT WHILE DISSIPATING. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT INVOF NRN
OCN WTRS (INTO TNGT). CONTD SW WNDS ERY IN THE UPCOMING WK AS HI
PRES OFF THE SE CONUS CST HOLDS ITS GROUND AND AHD OF NEXT AREA OF
LO PRES TRACKING TWD THE WTRS FM THE W. BY TUE...MDL DIFFERENCES
WRT HANDLING OF SFC LO PRES ENTERING THE RGN FM THE W. 00Z/16 GFS
SHOWING MUCH FASTER ARRIVAL OF/STRONGER NNE WNDS BY LT TUE/TUE NGT
AS LO PRES TRACKS NR/JUST S OF THE WTRS. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WNDS/WAVES-SEAS TUE INTO WED BASED ON UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
644 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS STRENGTHENING SW
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT (PW`S ~1.75" AND CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG). MODELS DIFFER
ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK S/W EXPECTED TO REACH OUR FA LATE
TODAY IN DAMPENING W-NW FLOW ALOFT. STILL ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
WARRANT 30-40% POPS ACROSS N-NW HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S MOST PLACES.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY STALLS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE LATE TONIGHT. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO OVER 2" TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
COULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL
HINGE ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH (BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES). HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S (BUT COULD BE COOLER NORTH
DEPENDING ON SPEED OF COLD FRONT.)

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGH IN THE WEST/RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS/TROUGH OVER THE EAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS AS CONFLUENCE ALLOWS
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. REMNANT MOISTURE
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY WEDS...BUT EXPECTED DRY ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...POLAR LOW WILL DIVE SWD OVER THE HUDSON BAY/NRN CANADA
THURS...FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE NW
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EWD PROGRESSION OF A
WEAKER/FLATTER UPPER RIDGE. BAGGY TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD
DEV) BUILDS INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MEAN FRONT LOCATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN VA. HOWEVER...LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY AS DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND PRECIP
WATERS AOB 1.5 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS STARTING OFF THE DAY. SW WNDS INCRS THROUGH THE MRNG
HRS...W/ PTNTL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. WEAKENING
CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NW LT TDA RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS
(THOUGH CIGS RMNG AOA 5KFT)...THEN SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE FA THIS
EVE INTO TNGT W/ PSBL ISOLD/WIDELY SCT TSTMS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHORT LIVED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS...HIGHEST PROB AT KRIC/KSBY.
CONTD SW FLO MON/TUE WITH LOW PROB FOR (MAINLY) DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...THEN INCRSG CHCS ON TUE AS WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WNDS AVGG (JUST) SHORT OF SCAS THROUGH THIS AFTN. WEAKENING
CDFNT APPROACHES THE WTRS FM THE NW LT TDA...SLOLY PUSHING ACRS
THE WTRS TNGT WHILE DISSIPATING. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT INVOF NRN
OCN WTRS (INTO TNGT). CONTD SW WNDS ERY IN THE UPCOMING WK AS HI
PRES OFF THE SE CONUS CST HOLDS ITS GROUND AND AHD OF NEXT AREA OF
LO PRES TRACKING TWD THE WTRS FM THE W. BY TUE...MDL DIFFERENCES
WRT HANDLING OF SFC LO PRES ENTERING THE RGN FM THE W. 00Z/16 GFS
SHOWING MUCH FASTER ARRIVAL OF/STRONGER NNE WNDS BY LT TUE/TUE NGT
AS LO PRES TRACKS NR/JUST S OF THE WTRS. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WNDS/WAVES-SEAS TUE INTO WED BASED ON UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/DAP
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS STRENGTHENING SW
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT (PW`S ~1.75" AND CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG). MODELS DIFFER
ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK S/W EXPECTED TO REACH OUR FA LATE
TODAY IN DAMPENING W-NW FLOW ALOFT. STILL ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
WARRANT 30-40% POPS ACROSS N-NW HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S MOST PLACES.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY STALLS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE LATE TONIGHT. WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
AND ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND WILL BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO OVER 2" TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
COULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT THAT WILL
HINGE ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH (BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES). HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S.
TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S (BUT COULD BE COOLER NORTH
DEPENDING ON SPEED OF COLD FRONT.)

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGH IN THE WEST/RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS/TROUGH OVER THE EAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS AS CONFLUENCE ALLOWS
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. REMNANT MOISTURE
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY WEDS...BUT EXPECTED DRY ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...POLAR LOW WILL DIVE SWD OVER THE HUDSON BAY/NRN CANADA
THURS...FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE NW
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EWD PROGRESSION OF A
WEAKER/FLATTER UPPER RIDGE. BAGGY TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD
DEV) BUILDS INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MEAN FRONT LOCATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN VA. HOWEVER...LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY AS DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND PRECIP
WATERS AOB 1.5 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS STARTING OFF THE DAY. SW WNDS INCRS THROUGH THE MRNG
HRS...W/ PTNTL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. WEAKENING
CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NW LT TDA RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS
(THOUGH CIGS RMNG AOA 5KFT)...THEN SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE FA THIS
EVE INTO TNGT W/ PSBL ISOLD/WIDELY SCT TSTMS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHORT LIVED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS...HIGHEST PROB AT KRIC/KSBY.
CONTD SW FLO MON/TUE WITH LOW PROB FOR (MAINLY) DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...THEN INCRSG CHCS ON TUE AS WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WNDS INCRSG IN SPDS TO (JUST) SHORT OF SCAS THIS AFTN.
WEAKENING CDFNT APPROACHES THE WTRS FM THE NW LT TDA...SLOLY
PUSHING ACRS THE WTRS TNGT WHILE DISSIPATING. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FT INVOF NRN OCN WTRS (INTO TNGT). CONTD SW WNDS ERY IN THE UPCOMING
WK AS HI PRES OFF THE SE CONUS CST HOLDS ITS GROUND AND AHD OF
NEXT AREA OF LO PRES TRACKING TWD THE WTRS FM THE W. BY TUE...MDL
DIFFERENCES WRT HANDLING OF SFC LO PRES ENTERING THE RGN FM THE W.
00Z/16 GFS SHOWING MUCH FASTER ARRIVAL OF/STRONGER NNE WNDS BY LT
TUE/TUE NGT AS LO PRES TRACKS NR/JUST S OF THE WTRS. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WNDS/WAVES-SEAS TUE INTO WED BASED ON
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160702
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS. SFC HIGH
PRS SLIDES OVRHD RESULTING IN ANTH CONFY NITE. SOME HIGH LVL CLDS
FROM TIME TO TIME...OTW M CLR. LOWS 60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. NAM
SOUNDING SHOWING AROUND 1.75 INCHES OF PWAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES ~1000 J/KG. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTN. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE
INFLUENCE THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE ON STORM INITIATION. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER HI-RES
MODEL-DERIVED REFLECTIVITY DOES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA. AGAIN...STRONG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS STAYING
TO THE NORTH OF THE FA. HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SUN AND MON
TOPPING UP IN THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGH IN THE WEST/RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS/TROUGH OVER THE EAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS AS CONFLUENCE ALLOWS
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. REMNANT MOISTURE
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY WEDS...BUT EXPECTED DRY ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...POLAR LOW WILL DIVE SWD OVER THE HUDSON BAY/NRN CANADA
THURS...FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE NW
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EWD PROGRESSION OF A
WEAKER/FLATTER UPPER RIDGE. BAGGY TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD
DEV) BUILDS INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MEAN FRONT LOCATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN VA. HOWEVER...LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY AS DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND PRECIP
WATERS AOB 1.5 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS STARTING OFF THE DAY. SW WNDS INCRS THROUGH THE MRNG
HRS...W/ PTNTL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. WEAKENING
CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NW LT TDA RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS
(THOUGH CIGS RMNG AOA 5KFT)...THEN SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE FA THIS
EVE INTO TNGT W/ PSBL ISOLD/WIDELY SCT TSTMS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHORT LIVED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS...HIGHEST PROB AT KRIC/KSBY.
CONTD SW FLO MON/TUE WITH LOW PROB FOR (MAINLY) DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...THEN INCRSG CHCS ON TUE AS WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WNDS INCRSG IN SPDS TO (JUST) SHORT OF SCAS THIS AFTN.
WEAKENING CDFNT APPROACHES THE WTRS FM THE NW LT TDA...SLOLY
PUSHING ACRS THE WTRS TNGT WHILE DISSIPATING. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5
FT INVOF NRN OCN WTRS (INTO TNGT). CONTD SW WNDS ERY IN THE UPCOMING
WK AS HI PRES OFF THE SE CONUS CST HOLDS ITS GROUND AND AHD OF
NEXT AREA OF LO PRES TRACKING TWD THE WTRS FM THE W. BY TUE...MDL
DIFFERENCES WRT HANDLING OF SFC LO PRES ENTERING THE RGN FM THE W.
00Z/16 GFS SHOWING MUCH FASTER ARRIVAL OF/STRONGER NNE WNDS BY LT
TUE/TUE NGT AS LO PRES TRACKS NR/JUST S OF THE WTRS. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WNDS/WAVES-SEAS TUE INTO WED BASED ON
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING CANCELLED FOR THE BLACKWATER AT FRANKLIN. LEVEL FELL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTRN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
HYDROLOGY...


000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160511
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
111 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS. SFC HIGH
PRS SLIDES OVRHD RESULTING IN ANTH CONFY NITE. SOME HIGH LVL CLDS
FROM TIME TO TIME...OTW M CLR. LOWS 60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. NAM
SOUNDING SHOWING AROUND 1.75 INCHES OF PWAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES ~1000 J/KG. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTN. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE
INFLUENCE THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE ON STORM INITIATION. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER HI-RES
MODEL-DERIVED REFLECTIVITY DOES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE AREA. AGAIN...STRONG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW WITH BEST DYNAMICS STAYING
TO THE NORTH OF THE FA. HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SUN AND MON
TOPPING UP IN THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGH IN THE WEST/RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS/TROUGH OVER THE EAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDS AS CONFLUENCE ALLOWS
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. REMNANT MOISTURE
AND THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EARLY WEDS...BUT EXPECTED DRY ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...POLAR LOW WILL DIVE SWD OVER THE HUDSON BAY/NRN CANADA
THURS...FLATTENING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE NW
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EWD PROGRESSION OF A
WEAKER/FLATTER UPPER RIDGE. BAGGY TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD
DEV) BUILDS INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MEAN FRONT LOCATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN VA. HOWEVER...LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY AS DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND PRECIP
WATERS AOB 1.5 INCHES.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS STARTING OFF THE DAY. SW WNDS INCRS THROUGH THE MRNG
HRS...W/ PTNTL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTN. WEAKENING
CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NW LT TDA RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS
(THOUGH CIGS RMNG AOA 5KFT)...THEN SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE FA THIS
EVE INTO TNGT W/ PSBL ISOLD/WIDELY SCT TSTMS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHORT LIVED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS...HIGHEST PROB AT KRIC/KSBY.
CONTD SW FLO MON/TUE WITH LOW PROB FOR (MAINLY) DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRAS/TSRAS ON MON...THEN INCRSG CHCS ON TUE AS WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE WATER TODAY WITH WINDS AOB 10 KT
AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
AND LOCATE OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE NE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATER. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND SWLY SFC WINDS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ATTM...WAA...STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND WARMING WATER
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STABLE CONDS OVER THE WATER. THUS...WILL
CAP WINDS AT 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER NRN COASTAL WATERS...AS WATER TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE 60S. GRADIENT WILL RELAX MON. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE WATER TUES NIGHT. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT OVER THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE N/NE BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN WEDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SWLY WINDS AOB
15 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING CANCELLED FOR THE BLACKWATER AT FRANKLIN. LEVEL FELL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTRN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAP
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...SAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ


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